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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

RESCue Model (RESCue Experiment and Model) [SWR-24-84]

The Renewable Energy and Storage Cybersecurity Research (RESCue) project is a collaborative effort aimed at securing the rapidly growing deployment of transmission-connected hybrid renewable energy systems, consisting of a combination of wind, solar, and/or energy storage equipment, against escalating cyber threats. This project brings together major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of wind, solar, and energy storage, along with major asset owners and DOE National Laboratories, to collectively identify cyber threats, assess risks, and develop robust cybersecurity strategies and solutions. The development of hybrid reference architectures has provided comprehensive blueprints for the secure design and integration of hybrid renewable energy systems, accounting for their unique characteristics and interdependencies. Additionally, NREL has created a cyber-resilient design framework that integrates cybersecurity considerations from the start of the system lifecycle, ensuring security is "baked in" from the initial design phase. The research thrusts for the project included (i) development of hybrid reference architectures and (ii) a cyber-resilient design framework for hybrid energy systems. The reference architectures has provided comprehensive blueprints for the secure design and integration of hybrid renewable energy systems, accounting for their unique characteristics and interdependencies. Additionally, NREL has created a cyber-resilient design framework that integrates cybersecurity considerations from the start of the system lifecycle, ensuring security is "baked in" from the initial design phase. A demonstration experiment was developed for one of the architectures using NREL's Cyber Range resources. This experiment configuration, deployable using open-source tools, is provided here in this repository. Additional models were developed for the wind and solar architectures as well, however the configurations for only the Energy Storage scenario are provided here: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24osti/89921.pdf

Hasandka, Adarsh↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematics: The Tao of Data Science

The two pieces, "Ten Research Challenge Areas in Data Science" by Jeannette M. Wing and “Challenges and Opportunities in Statistics and Data Science: Ten Research Areas” by Xuming He and Xihong Lin, provide an impressively complete list of data science challenges from luminaries in the field of data science. They have done an extraordinary job, so this response offers a complementary viewpoint from a mathematical perspective and evangelizes advanced mathematics as a key tool for meeting the challenges they have laid out. Notably, we pick up the themes of scientific understanding of machine learning and deep learning, computational considerations such as cloud computing and scalability, balancing computational and statistical considerations, and inference with limited data. We propose that mathematics is an important key to establishing rigor in the field of data science and as such has an essential role to play in its future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vertical Structure of Radiative Heating Rates of the MJO during DYNAMO

The vertical structure of radiative heating rates over the region of the tropi-cal Indian Ocean associated with the MJO during the DYNAMO/ARM MJO Investigation Experiment is presented. The mean and variability of heating rates during active, suppressed, and disturbed phases are determined from the Paci?c Northwest National Laboratory combined remote sensing retrieval (CombRet) from Gan Island, Maldives (0.69? S, 73.15? E). TOA and surface ?uxes from the CombRet product are compared with collocated three-hourly CERES SYN1deg Ed4A satellite retrievals. The ?uxes are correlated in time with correlation coef?cients around 0.9, yet CombRet time-mean OLR is 15 W m-2 larger. Previous work has suggested that CombRet under-samples high clouds, due to attenuation by low-level clouds and reduced instrument sensitivity with altitude. However, mean OLR differs between CombRet and CERES for all values of OLR, not just the lowest values corresponding to widespread high clouds. The discrepancy peaks for mid-range OLR, sugges-tive of precipitating, towering cumulus convective clouds, rather than strati-form cirrus clouds. Biases in the cloud-top height of thick clouds substantially contribute to the overestimate of OLR by CombRet. CombRet data is used to generate composite shortwave and longwave atmospheric heating rate pro-?les as a function of the local OLR. Though there is considerable variability in CombRet not directly related to OLR, the time-height structure of mean heating rate composites generated using OLR as the interpolant is broadly representative of tropical convective variability on intraseasonal time scales.

Shell, Karen M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Perturbative Solution for Nonlinear Stratified Upwelling over a Frictional Slope

Abstract A perturbative solution of simplified primitive equations for nonlinear weakly stratified upwelling over a frictional slope is found that resolves the vertical structure of velocity fields and can satisfy Ertel’s potential vorticity conservation in the stratified inviscid interior. The solution uses assumptions consistent with the model proposed by Lentz and Chapman, including a steady-state, constant cross-shore density gradient, no alongshore gradients, laterally inviscid, and consideration of cross-shore advection of alongshore momentum. The solution resolves the vertical structure of velocity fields (including subsurface maxima of compensational flow, not resolved by Lentz and Chapman) and can satisfy Ertel’s potential vorticity conservation in the stratified inviscid interior. The dynamics are similar to Lentz and Chapman; bottom stress balances alongshore wind stress in a homogeneous density ocean and is replaced by nonlinear cross-shore transport of alongshore momentum as the Burger number (S=αN/f, whereα,N, andfare the bottom slope, buoyancy frequency, Coriolis frequency, respectively) increases. When the solution uses the empirical relation between cross-shore and vertical density gradients proposed by Lentz and Chapman, vorticity conservation is not satisfied and the nonlinear momentum transport estimated by the solution linearly increases withS, asymptotically matching Lentz and Chapman forS< 1. When the solution conserves interior potential vorticity, the momentum transport is proportional toS 2 forS< 1 and is in better agreement with numerical simulations.

Oceanography↗
DOE OSTI2024

On CCN Effects upon Convective Cold Pool Timing and Features

Abstract Cold pools produced by deep convection can initiate new convection, and their representation in larger-scale weather and climate models could improve prediction of the extent and timing of upscale growth. Cold pools originate from latent cooling from precipitation changing phase, but little attention has been paid to microphysical influences on cold pool characteristics, particularly CCN effects. Datasets obtained from the CACTI and RELAMPAGO field campaigns, along with idealized numerical modeling, are utilized to investigate the hypothesis that convective storms forming in higher-CCN environments generate their first surface rainfall later, delaying cold pool initiation. Aircraft observations of CCN and shallow convection on 9 days do suggest a CCN effect. Those ingesting more CCN contained fewer drizzle drops, although a decreased cloud depth with increasing CCN was also likely a limiting factor. In three of those cases that later developed into deep convection, the timing of cold pool onset was not ubiquitously delayed in environments with more CCN. Idealized numerical simulations suggest that an ordinary thunderstorm can experience small delays in cold pool onset with increasing CCN due to changes in graupel production, but CCN effects on the cold pool from a supercell thunderstorm can be easily overpowered by its unique dynamics. A strong inverse relationship between cold pool strength, expansion rate, and depth with increasing CCN is suggested by the results of the ordinary thunderstorm simulation. Further consideration of CCN appears warranted for future cold pool parameterization development, but other environmental factors affecting storm morphology and precipitation cannot be ignored.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Rebound Effect of the U.S. Road Freight Transport

The United States (U.S.) road freight sector has continued to grow over recent decades. Growth in road freight could result in more fuel consumption and hence increased greenhouse gas emissions. Policymakers have attempted to manage the growth of energy usage through improved fuel economy based on technological advances. However, such improvements may not lead to anticipated goals because of the rebound effect, where improvements in energy efficiency trigger more travel and energy consumption that offsets energy savings. Thus, this study aims to determine the potential rebound effect from improved energy efficiency in the U.S. road freight sector. Eight fuel cost models are applied and asymmetric price response is incorporated in estimating the U.S. road freight sector’s rebound effect from 1980 to 2016. In addition, a recently developed data envelopment analysis is applied to determine the annual rebound effect in the road freight sector. The results suggest that, after accounting for the asymmetric price response, the average rebound effect of the U.S. road freight sector ranges from 6.9% to 8.8%, a level considerably less than that found for several industrialized countries and emerging economies. However, a considerable increase in the rebound effect has been seen in more recent years. Here, the findings suggest that overlooking the rebound effect in environmental policies could impede the goal of reducing total energy consumption and accompanying emissions. Policymakers should incorporate the rebound effect from efficiency enhancement in policy development and utilize some potential programs to reduce the adverse influence of rebound effect in related policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human-Centered and Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations

Nuclear power plants in the United States are critical to the nation’s energy security, accounting for 20% of all electricity produced for the power grid. As energy needs grow, 100 gigawatts of additional nuclear power will be necessary by 2050, more than double the current capacity. Realizing this target requires cutting-edge technology like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) that can bring about significant increases in the level of automation. Human-centered AI (HCAI) is a combination of human-centered design (human factors, human-in-the-loop, etc.) with AI/ML to help produce an efficient and reliable system with full consideration for human engagement. This paper provides a comprehensive and novel discussion of HCAI considerations in nuclear power, introducing unique applications for the existing fleet as well as new advanced reactor designs. We include real-life use cases of AI applications to work management processes at nuclear power sites and highlight lessons learned for HCAI.

Hall, Anna↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Individualized Survival Predictions From Random Survival Forests and Multistate Models in the Presence of Missing Data: A Case Study of Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer

Background: In recent years, interest in prognostic calculators for predicting patient health outcomes has grown with the popularity of personalized medicine. These calculators, which can inform treatment decisions, employ many different methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. Methods: We present a comparison of a multistate model (MSM) and a random survival forest (RSF) through a case study of prognostic predictions for patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. The MSM is highly structured and takes into account some aspects of the clinical context and knowledge about oropharyngeal cancer, while the RSF can be thought of as a black-box non-parametric approach. Key in this comparison are the high rate of missing values within these data and the different approaches used by the MSM and RSF to handle missingness. Results: We compare the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of survival probabilities predicted by both approaches and use simulation studies to better understand how predictive accuracy is influenced by the approach to (1) handling missing data and (2) modeling structural/disease progression information present in the data. We conclude that both approaches have similar predictive accuracy, with a slight advantage going to the MSM. Conclusions: Although the MSM shows slightly better predictive ability than the RSF, consideration of other differences are key when selecting the best approach for addressing a specific research question. These key differences include the methods’ ability to incorporate domain knowledge, and their ability to handle missing data as well as their interpretability, and ease of implementation. Ultimately, selecting the statistical method that has the most potential to aid in clinical decisions requires thoughtful consideration of the specific goals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF ULTRASONIC VELOCITIES AND ANISOTROPY IN THE TUSCALOOSA MARINE SHALE FORMATION

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) formation is a clay- and organic-rich emerging shale play with a considerable amount of hydrocarbon resources. Despite the substantial potential, there have been only a few wells drilled and produced in the formation over the recent years. The analyzed TMS samples contain an average of 50 wt% total clay, 27 wt% quartz and 14 wt% calcite and the mineralogy varies considerably over the small intervals. The high amount of clay leads to pronounced anisotropy and the frequent changes in mineralogy result in the heterogeneity of the formation. We studied the compressional (V P ) and shear-wave (V S ) velocities to evaluate the degree of anisotropy and heterogeneity, which impact hydraulic fracture growth, borehole instabilities, and subsurface imaging. The ultrasonic measurements of P- and S-wave velocities from five TMS wells are the best fit to the linear relationship with R 2 = 0.84 in the least-squares criteria. We observed that TMS S-wave velocities are relatively lower when compared to the established velocity relationships. Most of the velocity data in bedding-normal direction lie outside constant V P /V S lines of 1.6–1.8, a region typical of most organic-rich shale plays. For all of the studied TMS samples, the S-wave velocity anisotropy exhibits higher values than P-wave velocity anisotropy. In the samples in which the composition is dominated by either calcite or quartz minerals, mineralogy controls the velocities and V P /V S ratios to a great extent. Additionally, the organic content and maturity account for the velocity behavior in the samples in which the mineralogical composition fails to do so. The results provide further insights into TMS Formation evaluation and contribute to a better understanding of the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the play.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Attributing Differences of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF)-Gross Primary Production (GPP) Relationships between Two C4 Crops, Corn and Miscanthus

Information to characterize the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF)-gross primary production (GPP) relationship in C4 cropping systems remains limited. The annual C4 crop corn and perennial C4 crop miscanthus differ in phenology, canopy structure and leaf physiology. Investigating the SIF-GPP relationships in these species could deepen our understanding of SIF-GPP relationships within C4 crops. Using in situ canopy SIF and GPP measurements for both species along with leaf-level measurements, we found considerable differences in the SIF-GPP relationships between corn and miscanthus, with a stronger SIF-GPP relationship and higher slope of SIF-GPP observed in corn compared to miscanthus. These differences were mainly caused by leaf physiology. For miscanthus, high non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) under high light, temperature and water vapor deficit (VPD) conditions caused a large decline of fluorescence yield (ΦF), which further led to a SIF midday depression and weakened the SIF-GPP relationship. The larger slope in corn than miscanthus was mainly due to its higher GPP in mid-summer, largely attributed to the higher leaf photosynthesis and less NPQ. Our results demonstrated variation of the SIF-GPP relationship within C4 crops and highlighted the importance of leaf physiology in determining canopy SIF behaviors and SIF-GPP relationships.

Feedstock Production↗
DOE OSTI2023

3D Modeling of Safety-Related Upgrade Pilot Project

Constellation Energy and the United States Department of Energy (DOE) have established a public/private partnership to implement a pilot digital upgrade to replace legacy analog, safety-related reactor protection and emergency safety feature actuation systems (RPS/ESFAS) with modern digital systems. This effort is occurring at Constellation’s Limerick Generating Station. This project is being performed in accordance with industry processes that have been adapted to better support digital upgrades. These processes include IP-ENG-001, Standard Design Process, NISP-EN-04, Standard Digital Engineering Process and Electric Power Research Institute Report 3002011816, Digital Engineering Guide. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been supporting this effort. Latest INL HFE efforts in support of this project have focused on definition and implementation of the Human Factors Engineering (HFE) Program in support of Constellation design and related licensing efforts. This paper will present the development of the HFE 3D modeling execution of the Main Control Room safety upgrades. New equipment and modifications are planned for upgrading the new safety systems. 3D modeling allows for visualization of the new equipment and modifications to be shared with engineering and design teams for evaluation and review. Anthropometric considerations such as sight lines and functional reach can be evaluated directly using the 3D model. This effort has helped to provide visualizations for additional review with operations personnel and project stakeholders.

3D Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Risk Analysis for Remote Operation of Microreactors

Microreactors are a subset of advanced nuclear reactors that can be factory fabricated, transportable, and self-regulating. They have the potential to be used in microgrids, rural and remote areas, or emergency response applications, replacing fossil fuel sources like diesel generators and enabling sustainable energy generation. In order to make microreactor operation cost-effective, it is likely that remote communications will be needed to reduce the number of personnel required to be on site. While remote operation of energy generation and other industrial control systems is common in other industries, it is not yet adopted in the nuclear community and has many perceived and actual risks. In this paper, the severity of the risks introduced by remote operations for microreactors are explored. The primary changes in the operations involve the addition of a remote communications network and a certification system for data and controls. These changes lend themselves to considerations of cyber risks, whether unintentional or adversarial, but the assessment considers not just cyber risks introduced, but also how physical and human factors-based risks will impact the remote operations system and change the overall risk profile. This initial assessment indicates that there are standard cyber and mitigation measures that can be put in place so the risk of doing remote operations does not dramatically increase compared to local operations. This evaluation is a critical step in the process of evaluating if remote operations of microreactors is a suitable solution to meet future sustainable grid needs

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temporal reflection of an optical pulse from a short soliton: impact of Raman scattering

We study temporal reflection of an optical pulse from the refractive-index barrier created by a short pump soliton inside a nonlinear dispersive medium such as an optical fiber. One feature is that the soliton’s speed changes continuously as its spectrum redshifts because of intrapulse Raman scattering. We use the generalized nonlinear Schrödinger equation to find the shape and spectrum of the reflected pulse. Both are affected considerably by the soliton’s trajectory. The reflected pulse can become considerably narrower compared to the incident pulse under conditions that involve a type of temporal focusing. This phenomenon is explained through space–time duality by showing that the temporal situation is analogous to an optical beam incident obliquely on a parabolic mirror. We obtain an approximate analytic expression for the reflected pulse’s spectrum and use it to derive the temporal version of the transformation law for the

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topology optimization of 3D photonic crystals with complete bandgaps

The design of photonic crystals with complete bandgaps has recently received considerable research focus for numerous reasons. This work leverages well-known nonlinear programming techniques to alleviate the non-smoothness caused by degenerate eigenvalues such that topology optimization problems can be solved with the open-source IPOPT software. A fully-vectorial plane wave expansion technique is used with an iterative eigensolver to efficiently predict dispersion properties of candidate structures. Nonlinear programming is employed to solve the inverse problem of designing three-dimensional periodic structures that exhibit complete two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) photonic bandgaps. Mesh refinement is performed to alleviate the large computational burden of designing and analyzing photonic crystals, and a periodic density filter is implemented to impose a minimum feature size for manufacturability considerations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing Pr 3+ and Nd 3+ for deactivating the Er 3+ : 4 I 13/2 level in lanthanum titanate glass

Erbium lanthanum titanate glasses were prepared by levitation melting for the spectroscopic study of ways to promote the mid-infrared fluorescence. Two series of heavily erbium doped glasses (15 wt%) were prepared with the addition of either Pr 3+ or Nd 3+ in amounts relative to Er 3+ of 0.05, 0.1, and 0.2. Both ions quench the lower Er 3+ laser level with the Pr 3+ doing so more rapidly. Although high co-dopant concentrations result in higher energy transfer, as clearly evidenced in upconversion and downconversion fluorescence measurements, the mid-infrared lifetime also suffers a reduction and, therefore, a balance must be struck in the co-dopant concentration. Lifetime and spectral measurements indicate that, at a fixed relative co-dopant amount, Pr 3+ is more effective than Nd 3+ at removing the bottleneck of the Er 3+ 4 I 13/2 level. Moreover, consideration of the lifetimes alongside the absorption data of the individual ions indicates that despite the large absorption cross-section of Nd 3+ at 808 nm, the concentration needed to yield more absorbed power than utilizing direct 976 nm excitation of Er 3+ results in unfavorable lifetimes of the mid-infrared transition. In the end, Pr 3+ prevails as the superior co-dopant in terms of the effects on fluorescence lifetimes as well as potential laser system design considerations. In a unique self-doping approach, a reducing melt atmosphere of Ar instead of O 2 creates a small fraction of Ti 3+ . In 5Er 2 O 3 -12La 2 O 3 -83TiO 2 glass, the presence of Ti 3+ quenches the 4 I 13/2 emission about 2.6 times more than the 4 I 11/2 when lifetimes are compared to an O 2 melt environment. As an additional means of increasing the mid-infrared emission, the effect of temperature on the mid- and near- infrared lifetimes of a lightly doped lanthanum titanate composition is investigated between 77-300 K. The mid-infrared lifetime increases by ∼30% while the near-infrared lifetime increases by ∼10%, which suggests in addition to co-doping, active cooling of the gain media will further enhance performance.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2021

Personal Interventions for Reducing Exposure and Risk for Outdoor Air Pollution: An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report

Poor air quality affects the health and wellbeing of large populations around the globe. Although source controls are the most effective approaches for improving air quality and reducing health risks, individuals can also take actions to reduce their personal exposure by staying indoors, reducing physical activity, altering modes of transportation, filtering indoor air, and using respirators and other types of face masks. A synthesis of available evidence on the efficacy, effectiveness, and potential adverse effects or unintended consequences of personal interventions for air pollution is needed by clinicians to assist patients and the public in making informed decisions about use of these interventions. To address this need, the American Thoracic Society convened a workshop in May of 2018 to bring together a multidisciplinary group of international experts to review the current state of knowledge about personal interventions for air pollution and important considerations when helping patients and the general public to make decisions about how best to protect themselves. From these discussions, recommendations were made regarding when, where, how, and for whom to consider personal interventions. In addition to the efficacy and safety of the various interventions, the committee considered evidence regarding the identification of patients at greatest risk, the reliability of air quality indices, the communication challenges, and the ethical and equity considerations that arise when discussing personal interventions to reduce exposure and risk from outdoor air pollution.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗