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At least 847 records · Page 47

Dynamic machine learning-based optimization algorithm to improve boiler efficiency

With decreasing computational costs, improvement in algorithms, and the aggregation of large industrial and commercial datasets, machine learning is becoming a ubiquitous tool for process and business innovations. Machine learning is still lacking applications in the field of dynamic optimization for real-time control. This work presents a novel framework for performing constrained dynamic optimization using a recurrent neural network model combined with a metaheuristic optimizer. The framework is designed to augment an existing control system and is purely data-driven, like most industrial Model Predictive Control applications. Several recurrent neural network models are compared as well as several metaheuristic optimizers. Hyperparameters and optimizer parameters are tuned with parameter sweeps, and the resulting values are reported. Further, the best parameters for each optimizer and model combination are demonstrated in closed-loop control of a dynamic simulation, and several recommendations are made for generalizing this framework to other systems. Up to 0.953% improvement is realized over the non-optimized case for a simulated coal-fired boiler. While this is not a large improvement in percentage, the total economic impact is $991,000 per year, and this study builds a foundation for future machine learning with dynamic optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Emulation of radiation transport in 3D stochastic media using 1D planar Monte Carlo stochastic media radiation transport algorithms

A subset of stochastic media radiation transport problems involves those in which radiation is incident on a thin slab of stochastic material. Particle tracking in 3D for such problems is expensive, and 1D planar models lack accuracy because they only allow the material to change in one dimension. Therefore, we propose dimensional emulation, which through a slight modification allows existing 1D planar geometry stochastic media radiation transport models to reproduce results from the equivalent 3D models by allowing the material to change in all three dimensions, reproducing the fidelity of the 3D model for the low computational cost of the 1D planar model. In this work, we apply dimensional emulation to three Monte Carlo stochastic media radiation transport models: Chord Length Sampling (CLS), the Local Realization Preserving method (LRP), and a variant of Conditional Point Sampling (CoPS). For a common Markovian benchmark set, the 3D emulation variants of these algorithms are numerically verified to reproduce the results of the 3D variants within statistics while running 1.3 to 2 times faster in the implementation within Sandia National Laboratories open-source research code PlaybookMC. The 3D emulation variants are also shown to yield a 72%–92% reduction in error for the thin slab problems in comparison to the 1D benchmark. As a result, the 3D emulation variant of CLS and CoPS-1 are shown to reproduce 3D CLS results that were used to approximate results for a 3D spherical inclusion geometry benchmark set.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Impact of representative ground motion level on seismic PSA with the boundary between overestimation and underestimation

One commonly used approach in seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the discrete method. This method follows the standard PSA framework and can be applied to various models, such as multi-unit models, while reducing computational costs using standard software. However, due to the inability to subdivide intervals infinitely, the discrete method approximates with a finite number of subintervals. In practice, different numbers of subintervals are applied, and the representative ground motion level is selected based on expert judgment. When employing a smaller number of subintervals, it is important to take caution to prevent underestimation. This study analyzes the impact of the representative ground motion level on seismic risk. It confirms that underestimation can occur with a small number of subintervals depending on the representative ground motion level. This study also proposes a method for determining the boundary of underestimation and overestimation. The method is demonstrated through examples, providing a mathematical foundation for selecting appropriate representative ground motion levels. By avoiding underestimation, this research helps prevent the oversight of significant risk contributors and enhances the understanding of seismic risk.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DeepONet-grid-UQ: A trustworthy deep operator framework for predicting the power grid’s post-fault trajectories

This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Combined Neyman–Pearson chi-square: An improved approximation to the Poisson-likelihood chi-square

We describe an approximation to the widely-used Poisson-likelihood chi-square using a linear combination of Neyman’s and Pearson’s chi-squares, namely “combined Neyman–Pearson chi-square” ($X^2_{CNP}$). Through analytical derivations and toy model simulations, we show that leads to a significantly smaller bias on the best-fit model parameters compared to those using either Neyman’s or Pearson’s chi-square. When the computational cost of using the Poisson-likelihood chi-square is high, $X^2_{CNP}$ provides a good alternative given its natural connection to the covariance matrix formalism.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Accelerated radiation transport modeling techniques for pencil beam computed tomography using gamma rays

Monte Carlo radiation transport modeling studies were performed for a compact, and high-resolution gamma-ray computed tomography system designed for imaging irradiated nuclear fuel. The system comprises a 60 Co source – chosen for its highly penetrating 1173 keV and 1332 keV gamma rays – a pair of high-aspect-ratio pencil beam collimators, and an inorganic scintillator detector. Here two acceleration methods are proposed to rapidly model a transmission type gamma-ray tomography system. The first, a variance reduction technique, is based on performing Monte Carlo simulations with a monodirectionally-biased source, sampled from a characteristic sub-volume of the full source volume. The second acceleration method is based on the deterministic calculations using the Beer–Lambert law and detector response characteristics. Comparison of simulations using acceleration approaches with analog simulations of the fully isotropic, full-volume equivalent, show that the Monte Carlo variance reduction technique gives quantitatively accurate predictions for large collimator aspect ratios while the deterministic calculations are semi-quantitative but converge close to the correct result as the collimator aspect ratio increases. As such, these techniques can be used to reduce the computational cost in generating simulated radiographs and tomographs by several orders of magnitude. Experimental validation efforts are currently underway and will be demonstrated in future work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Automated integration gate selection for Gaussian mixture model pulse shape discrimination

Pulse shapes differ between neutron and gamma particles when measured with detector devices employing pulse shape discriminating (PSD) scintillators. Digitized waveforms can be used in detection systems to perform pulse shape discrimination for this application. Prior Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) methods require access to the pulse full-waveform. Reducing the waveform to a smaller set of combined samples reduces computational cost while affecting PSD performance. In this work, we develop a method for selecting the best performing combination of integration gates, or contiguous summed segments of the digitized pulse for PSD. The method uses a discrimination score based on the GMM PSD approach. Furthermore, the final selection is performed using Bayesian Optimization. PSD detection results are compared with varying numbers of selected gates on time-of-flight (TOF) data. This method can be used to fully automate the selection of gates in an unsupervised (without ground truth labels) setting.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulation scaling studies of reactor core two-phase flow using direct numerical simulation

Tremendous growth in supercomputing power in recent years has resulted in the emergence of high-resolution flow analysis methods as an advanced research tool to evaluate single and two-phase flow behavior. In particular, unstructured mesh-based methods have been applied to analyze flows in complex reactor core geometries, including those of light water reactors (LWR). The finite-element based code, PHASTA, is utilized to perform large-scale simulations of two-phase bubbly flows in LWR geometries. Given the large computational cost of direct numerical simulation (DNS) coupled with interface tracking methods (ITM), typical domains encompass a portion of a single subchannel. In the presented research, the state-of-the-art analysis of turbulent two-phase flows in complex LWR subchannel geometries are demonstrated at both prototypical reactor parameters as well as scaled low pressure conditions. Three different cases are studied, a high-pressure simulation in prototypical reactor subchannel geometry, a low-pressure case in prototypical geometry and a final low-pressure case in a geometry scaled up to conserve the ratio between the bubble size and the domain pitch. Utilizing advanced statistical processing tools, these simulation conditions are compared to shed light on the relevancy of two-phase flow characteristics given the significant differences between LWR and low-pressure conditions. These findings can lead to the generation of useful guiding principles when researchers need to scale the two-phase flow behavior captured at low pressure and temperature conditions to those at reactor operating conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Chiral three-nucleon force and continuum for dripline nuclei and beyond

Three-nucleon force and continuum play important roles in reproducing the properties of atomic nuclei around driplines. Therefore it is valuable to build up a theoretical framework where both effects can be taken into account to solve the nuclear Schrödinger equation. To this end, in this letter, we have expressed the chiral three-nucleon force within the continuum Berggren representation, so that bound, resonant and continuum states can be treated on an equal footing in the complex-momentum space. To reduce the model dimension and computational cost, the three-nucleon force is truncated at the normal-ordered two-body level and limited in the sd-shell model space, with the residual three-body term being neglected. We choose neutron-rich oxygen isotopes as the test ground because they have been well studied experimentally, with the neutron dripline determined. The calculations have been carried out within the Gamow shell model. The quality of our results in reproducing the properties of oxygen isotopes around the neutron dripline shows the relevance of the interplay between three-nucleon force and the coupling to continuum states. We also analyze the role played by the chiral three-nucleon force, by dissecting the contributions of the 2π exchange, 1π exchange and contact terms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraining Hamiltonians from chiral effective field theory with neutron-star data

Multi-messenger observations of neutron stars (NSs) and their mergers have placed strong constraints on the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). The EOS, in turn, depends on microscopic nuclear interactions that are described by nuclear Hamiltonians. These Hamiltonians are commonly derived within chiral effective field theory (EFT). Ideally, multi-messenger observations of NSs could be used to directly inform our understanding of EFT interactions, but such a direct inference necessitates millions of model evaluations. This is computationally prohibitive because each evaluation requires us to calculate the EOS from a Hamiltonian by solving the quantum many-body problem with methods such as auxiliary-field diffusion Monte Carlo (AFDMC), which provides very accurate and precise solutions but at a significant computational cost. Additionally, we need to solve the stellar structure equations for each EOS which further slows down each model evaluation by a few seconds. In this work, we combine emulators for AFDMC calculations of neutron matter, built using parametric matrix models, and for the stellar structure equations, built using multilayer perceptron neural networks, with the PyCBC data-analysis framework to enable a direct inference of coupling constants in an EFT Hamiltonian using multi-messenger observations of NSs. We find that astrophysical data can provide informative constraints on two-nucleon couplings despite the high densities probed in NS interiors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Machine learning from RANS and LES to inform coarse grid simulations

Nuclear system thermal hydraulic analysis has historically relied on computationally inexpensive 1D codes. However, such tools are unable to capture multiscale multidimensional effects in large nuclear reactor enclosures. On the other hand, simulations with higher fidelity can be too expensive for such purposes. One of the ways to reduce computational cost is to perform simulations on a coarse grid, which, unfortunately, introduces large discretization errors. In this paper, two high-to-low data-driven approaches are investigated: (1) a coarse grid turbulence model to predict eddy viscosity and (2) correction of errors in coarse grid velocity fields. The approaches aim to reduce grid- and turbulence model-induced errors in coarse grid Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations. Two sources of high-fidelity data, RANS and large eddy simulations (LES), are explored. To extract the eddy viscosity from the LES data, an inverse optimization problem is solved. However, the LES eddy viscosity is shown to be comparable to the RANS eddy viscosity in terms of error reduction. Therefore, the directly available RANS eddy viscosity was used to develop a coarse grid data-driven turbulence model. Additionally, error correction in velocity is used to reduce the remaining uncertainties and bring the results closer to reality. In conclusion, the performance of the frameworks is demonstrated for a scaled upper plenum of a gas-cooled reactor facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Thermal diffusion, exhaust gas recirculation and blending effects on lean premixed hydrogen flames

Thermodiffusively-unstable lean premixed hydrogen flames are investigated using two-dimensional direct numerical simulation employing finite-rate chemical kinetics. Three databases are generated focussing on the inclusion of the Soret effect, the recirculation of exhaust gas, and blending with methane. A simple rescaling of a classic thermal diffusion model is presented and shown to mimic multicomponent diffusion with very low computational cost and little-to-no loss in accuracy. It is also shown that a previously developed model for mean local flame speeds in lean premixed hydrogen flames can still be used provided Soret effects are taken into account in one-dimensional calculations. The addition of exhaust gas to the unburned mixture is found to enhance thermodiffusive instability; the primary mechanism for this was shown to be the highly-efficient third-body nature of water, with the reduction of adiabatic flame temperature a second-order effect. Again, the existing mean local flame speed model proved sufficient. Finally, blending with methane was found to reduce the thermodiffusive response of the flame, more so than the existing model suggests, despite adjustment of the fuel Lewis number; an adapted model is presented to account for this.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Turbulence-parameter estimation for current-energy converters using surrogate model optimization

Surrogate models maximize information utility by building predictive models in place of computational or experimentally expensive model runs. Marine hydrokinetic current energy converters require large-domain simulations to estimate array efficiencies and environmental impacts. Meso-scale models typically represent turbines as actuator discs that act as momentum sinks and sources of turbulence and its dissipation. An OpenFOAM model was developed where actuator disc k-ε turbulence was characterized using an approach developed for flows through vegetative canopies. Turbine-wake data from laboratory flume experiments collected at two influent turbulence intensities were used to calibrate parameters in the turbulence-source terms in the k-ε equations. Additionally, parameter influences on longitudinal wake profiles were estimated using Gaussian process regression with subsequent optimization minimizing the objective function within 3.1% of those obtained using the full model representation, but for 74% of the computational cost (far fewer model runs). This framework facilitates more efficient parameterization of the turbulence-source equations using turbine-wake data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Resilience-based Recovery Scheduling of Transportation Network in Mixed Traffic Environment: A Deep-Ensemble-Assisted Active Learning Approach

Devising effective post-hazard recovery strategies is critical in enhancing the resilience of transportation networks (TNs). However, existing work does not consider the multiclass users’ travel behavior in network functionality quantification and the metaheuristic solution procedures often suffer from extensive computational burden due to the exploration need in large solution space and the expensive functionality quantification. Here, this study develops a bilevel decision-making framework for the resilience-based recovery scheduling of the TN in a mixed traffic environment with connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) and human-driven vehicles (HDVs). The lower level quantifies the TN's functionality over time considering different travel behavior of CAV and HDV users arisen from their different levels of information perception. The upper level presents a novel deep-ensemble-assisted active learning approach to balance optimization performance and computational cost. This framework can help decision makers better quantify the TN's functionality to support effective recovery scheduling of TN with different mixed traffic scenarios ranging from HDV-only to future CAV-dominant traffic. The optimization approach bears the potential to be extended to solving general large-scale network recovery scheduling problems effectively and efficiently. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a real-world traffic network in Southern California under earthquake considering deterministic and stochastic repair durations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-level optimization with the koopman operator for data-driven, domain-aware, and dynamic system security

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) like the power grid are critically important but also increasingly vulnerable; ensuring reliable system operation in the face of disruptions is becoming more and more challenging. Multi-Level Optimization (MLO) is a powerful way to model adversarial interactions, which naturally makes it applicable to studying CPS security. However, MLO typically does not address underlying system dynamics, and incorporating nonlinear dynamics is generally infeasible. In this paper, we show how to combine MLO with the Koopman Operator (KO) to remedy this. The KO maps nonlinear dynamics to a lifted space in which those dynamics are linear, thus making it ideal for use with MLO. Moreover, the structure of the KO also provides convenient ways to incorporate domain knowledge into the data-driven process of learning the KO representation of a given system. Here we then demonstrate the use of MLO-KO on a small example problem taken from the power grid domain, discuss the scalability and computational cost of MLO-KO, and identify future research directions for this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Machine-learning-aided density functional theory calculations of stacking fault energies in steel

A combined large-scale first principles approach with machine learning and materials informatics is proposed to quickly sweep the chemistry-composition space of advanced high strength steels (AHSS). AHSS are composed of iron and key alloying elements such as aluminum and manganese. A systematic exploration of the distribution of aluminum and manganese atoms in iron is used to investigate low stacking fault energies configurations using first principles calculations. To overcome the computational cost of exploring the composition space, this process is sped up using an automated machine learning tool: DeepHyper. Here our results predict that it is energetically favorable for Al to stay away from a stacking fault, but Mn atoms do not affect the stacking fault energy and can stay in the vicinity of the fault. The distribution of Al and Mn atoms in systems containing stacking faults and the effects of their interactions on the equilibrium distribution are systematically analyzed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Application of Intelligent Load Control to Manage Building Loads to Support Rapid Growth of Distributed Renewable Generation

Electricity utilities are faced with the mounting challenge of providing a stable supply of power to meet the growing demand while also integrating rapid growth in distributed variable renewable generation. Traditional means of balancing short- and long-term supply and demand imbalance will be expensive. Alternative approaches of using flexible loads in buildings are needed to mitigate the imbalance at a lower cost. This paper shows how the intelligent load control (ILC) process can be used to manage loads in buildings by dynamically prioritizing loads for curtailment using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. The ILC process can be deployed on low-cost computing platforms without the need for any additional sensing. ILC was first validated in a simulation environment to provide two grid service use cases: (1) managing monthly peak electricity demand and (2) managing buildings’ electricity consumption during a capacity bidding event. After being successfully tested in a simulation environment, ILC was deployed on real buildings to manage electricity consumption to provide two different use cases under different outdoor operating conditions. Both the simulation tests and the real building experiments were deployed using VOLTTRON™, a distributed sensing and control platform. The results from the tests and experiments showed that ILC was able to manage the controllable loads (heat pumps) in the building to maintain the electricity consumption at the desired level without a significant impact on occupant comfort. Overall, the results demonstrate that the ILC allows coordination of the controllable loads and provides a more intelligent means of load management than the traditional duty-cycling approach.

Kim, Woohyun↗

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗