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At least 847 records · Page 47

The Impact of Constrained Data Assimilation on the Forecasts of Three Convection Systems During the ARM MC3E Field Campaign

A constrained data assimilation (CDA) system based on the ensemble variational (EnVar) method and physical constraints of mass and water conservations is evaluated through three convective cases during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. Compared to the original data assimilation (ODA), the CDA is shown to perform better in the forecasted state variables and simulated precipitation. The CDA is also shown to greatly mitigate the loss of forecast skills in observation denial experiments when radar radial winds are withheld in the assimilation. Modifications to the algorithm and sensitivities of the CDA to the calculation of the time tendencies in the constraints are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urban Effect on Precipitation and Deep Convective Systems Over Dallas‐Fort Worth

A range of multi-year observational data sets are used to characterize the hydroclimate of the Dallas Fort-Worth area (DFW) and to investigate the impact of urban land cover on daily accumulated precipitation, RADAR composite reflectivity (cREF), and cloud top height (CTH) during the warm season. Analyses of observational data indicate rainfall rates (RR) in a 45° annulus sector 50–100 km downwind of the city are enhanced relative to an upwind area of comparable size. Enhancement of mean precipitation intensity in this annulus sector is not observed on days with spatially averaged RR > 6 mm/day. Under some flow directions, the probability of cREF >30 dBZ, occurrence of hail, and the probability of CTH >10,000 geopotential meters are also enhanced up to 200 km downwind of DFW. Two deep convection events that passed over DFW are simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting model using a range of microphysical schemes and evaluated using RADAR observations. Model configurations that exhibit the highest fidelity in these control simulations are used in a series of perturbation experiments where the areal extent of the city is varied between zero (replacement with grassland) and eight times its current size. These perturbation experiments indicate a non-linear response of Mesoscale Convective System properties to the urban areal extent and a very strong sensitivity to the microphysical scheme used. The impact on precipitation from the urban area, even when it is expanded to eight-times the current extent, is much less marked for deep convection with stronger synoptic forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Advancing Arctic Climate Projection Capability at Seasonal to Decadal Scales (Final Technical Report)

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) at process resolving configurations has been used to (i) advance understanding of physical processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic amplification and (ii) understand and potentially reduce uncertainty in prediction of arctic climate change at seasonal to decadal scales. RASM consists the atmosphere (Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP), sea ice (CICE), land hydrology (Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC), river routing scheme (RVIC), marine biogeochemistry components and the coupling framework (CPL7). Its domain is pan-Arctic, with the atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km or 25-km grid and four configurations of the ocean and sea ice components: 1/12°(~9.3km) or 1/48°(~2.4km) and 45 or 60 vertical layers. These RASM configurations have been motivated by the emerging exascale capability for high performance computing to improve model fidelity. The dynamical downscaling of reanalysis allows comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time to: (i) advance system level understanding of physical processes and coupling involved in an event, (ii) optimize model parameter space, (iii) diagnose and reduce model biases and (iv) produce realistic and consistent across all the components initial conditions for predictions and predictability studies, which are all unique capabilities not available in global Earth System Models (ESMs). An evaluation of RASM 1.0 (Cassano et al. 2017) revealed that it had a cold bias over the oceans and a warm bias over land areas due largely to cloud and radiation biases in the model, with too little cloud cover simulated over land and too much cloud cover simulated over sub-polar oceans. This study has motivated an upgrade to WRF version 3.7.1 in RASM and allowed for the inclusion of the radiative impact of convective clouds. A variety of atmospheric physics parameterizations were evaluated against observations (e.g. data from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE); Sedlar et al. 2020) to identify an optimal suite of WRF physics options in RASM. The RASM with the optimized WRF physics were used to study the impact of strong mesoscale winds over the ocean around the southern tip of Greenland (DuVivier and Cassano 2016) and their impact on oceanic convection (DuVivier et al. 2017a). Data from the PolarWinds field campaign were used to evaluate WRF boundary layer physics and resolution impacts on the simulation of a Greenland barrier wind event (DuVivier et al. 2017b). The RVIC streamflow routing model has been implemented in RASM to realistically represent high-resolution streamflow processes (Hamman et al. 2017) and to couple the land buoyancy fluxes to the ocean. The RASM-RVIC high-resolution data set of all coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas for 1979-2014 was published as a separate product (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.293037). The fidelity of atmospheric momentum transfer to and the response of polar marine Ekman layer in RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) was investigated by Roberts et al. (2015). The increased frequency of oceanic flux exchange in CESM, following the RASM guidance, caused a considerable increase in the median inertial ice speed across the Southern Ocean and parts of the Arctic. A comprehensive evaluation of the RASM1.0 atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land interface was completed by Brunke et al. (2018). RASM was also demonstrated for its capability to simulate extreme events in agreement with observations in space and time (Lee et al. submitted). In particular, the development of three open water events, known as polynyas, have been simulated north of Greenland in February of 2011, 2017 and 2018, in agreement with satellite observations for the past four decades. The optimized RASM sea ice results have been favorably evaluated against satellite observations and a subset of eleven CMIP6 models (Watts et al. submitted). In a complementary project, Jin et al. (2018) have shown that RASM with higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice conditions, concentrations of nutrients and ice algae, in comparison to results from the coarse-resolution (1°) CESM. In two other complementary studies, RASM results were used (i) to explain areas of concentrated use by bowhead whales, the seasonal progression in the use, and the physical environment within those areas (Citta et al. 2015) and (ii) for a synthesis of fall bowhead whales distribution and migration in the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) Sea to investigate whale movements and feeding to the local ocean hydrography and currents (Citta et al. 2018). However, the multi-decadal output from the CESM Large Ensemble yielded unrealistic forcing. Instead, the shorter NCEP CFSv2 9-month forecasts were successfully tested and afforded an increased ensemble size (~30) to demonstrate gains of dynamical downscaling at sub-seasonal to intra-annual time scales. The improved model physics and coupling among RASM model components have yielded more realistic representation of the sea ice cover and consistent across all model components initial conditions. Consequently, RASM demonstrates significant gains compared to simulation of sea ice in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, RASM 6-month ensemble forecasts yield very realistic sea ice distribution, which demonstrates both significant gains of dynamical downscaling and the continued impact of the initial conditions on forecasts out to 6 months (https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions). A follow up study using RASM for dynamical downscaling of the more realistic CESM initialized Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble output is currently ongoing as part of the DOE RGMA HiLAT-RASM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Zooming in: SCREAM at 100 m using regional refinement over the San Francisco Bay Area

Pushing global climate models to large-eddy simulation (LES) scales over complex terrain has remained a major challenge. This study presents the first known implementation of a global model – SCREAM (Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model) – at 100 m horizontal resolution using a regionally refined mesh (RRM) over the San Francisco Bay Area. Two hindcast simulations were conducted to test performance under both strong synoptic forcing and weak, boundary-layer-driven conditions. We demonstrate that SCREAM can stably run at LES scales while realistically capturing topography, surface heterogeneity, and coastal processes. The 100 m SCREAM-RRM substantially improves near-surface wind speed, temperature, humidity, and pressure biases compared to the baseline 3.25 km simulation, and better reproduces fine-scale wind oscillations and boundary-layer structures. These advances leverage SCREAM's scale-aware SHOC turbulence parameterization, which transitions smoothly across scales without tuning. Performance tests show that while CPU-only simulations remain costly, GPU acceleration with SCREAMv1 on NERSC's Perlmutter system enables two-day hindcasts to complete in under two wall-clock days. Our results open the door to LES-scale studies of orographic flows, boundary-layer turbulence, and coastal clouds within a fully comprehensive global modeling framework.

Geosciences↗

Mini Micropulse Lidar measurements in vertical and scanning modes

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program operates ten Sigma Space (currently Droplet Measurement Technologies/DMT) micropulse lidar systems (MPL-4B-IDS/POL-FS series), which detect the backscattered light in two orthogonal linear polarization channels allowing to distinguish between spherical (e.g. water) and non-spherical (e.g. ice) scattering particles. The ARM MPLs have been providing valuable measurements to the aerosol and cloud research community for well over a decade. DMT’s Mini-Micropulse lidar (MiniMPL) is a compact version of the standard MPL. It reduces the power-aperture product to minimize cost, size, weight, power requirements and has all the electronics integrated with optics in a single box. Although as a result, it has a lower detection range than the MPL, limiting the measurements to the troposphere, its performance is promised to match that of the standard MPL within the troposphere. The MiniMPL weighs 13 kg, and the complete system, consisting of an optical transceiver and a laptop running the data acquisition and post-processing software, fits in a storm case, allowing its transport on domestic or international flights. This can be especially valuable for short field campaigns or Intensive Operational Periods, where time is of the essence when replacing a faulty instrument. In addition, the scanning polarization lidar capability (MiniMPL-SCAN option) could be of great interest for satisfying ARM measurement needs for certain research topics related to clouds and precipitation. To evaluate its full potential in comparison with co-located remote sensing instruments including the ARM MPL-4B-IDS/POL-FS at SGP, a miniMPL was hosted at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) mega-site in 2020 for approximately 3 months. During this time the miniMPL was tested in both vertical sampling and scanning modes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Classification of Cloud Particle Imagery from Aircraft Platforms Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Abstract A vast amount of ice crystal imagery exists from a variety of field campaign initiatives that can be utilized for cloud microphysical research. Here, nine convolutional neural networks are used to classify particles into nine regimes on over 10 million images from the Cloud Particle Imager probe, including liquid and frozen states and particles with evidence of riming. A transfer learning approach proves that the Visual Geometry Group (VGG-16) network best classifies imagery with respect to multiple performance metrics. Classification accuracies on a validation dataset reach 97% and surpass traditional automated classification. Furthermore, after initial model training and preprocessing, 10 000 images can be classified in approximately 35 s using 20 central processing unit cores and two graphics processing units, which reaches real-time classification capabilities. Statistical analysis of the classified images indicates that a large portion (57%) of the dataset is unusable, meaning the images are too blurry or represent indistinguishable small fragments. In addition, 19% of the dataset is classified as liquid drops. After removal of fragments, blurry images, and cloud drops, 38% of the remaining ice particles are largely intersecting the image border (≥10% cutoff) and therefore are considered unusable because of the inability to properly classify and dimensionalize. After this filtering, an unprecedented database of 1 560 364 images across all campaigns is available for parameter extraction and bulk statistics on specific particle types in a wide variety of storm systems, which can act to improve the current state of microphysical parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optical Particle Measurements during EPCAPE Field Campaign Report

This campaign requested the deployment of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility optical particle counter (OPC) at the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) located at the Scripps Pier in La Jolla, California during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE). The addition of the OPC was requested for two reasons. (1) Close the gap between the scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) and aerodynamic particle sizer (APS) size distribution from the Aerosol Observing System (AOS) measurements. (2) Principal investigator Petters has been working with Tracking Aerosol Convection Interaction Experiment (TRACER) data to compute particle fluxes from Doppler lidar (Petters et al. 2024). Briefly, backscatter flux is obtained using the eddy covariance technique using the Doppler vertical velocity and attenuated backscatter. Building upon prior studies, we were able to relate backscatter to particle number concentration by calibrating the lidar retrievals against optical particle counter-measured ground-based aerosol size distribution and radiosonde-interpolated relative humidity at lidar sample height. Performing similar analysis was of interest to EPCAPE to better understand the emissions and vertical transport of large particles into the overlying stratus clouds. However, as stated above, this analysis requires an optical size distribution that covers the 0.3-30-μm-diameter size range. The OPC was deployed between 2023-04-14 and 2024-02-14. The deployment, data quality analysis, and data archiving was handled by the DOE ARM instrument mentor team without additional involvement by the principal investigator. Data quality was marked as “routine” for the majority of the campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tabletop Testing for EV Charging Ecosystem PKI (Project T34PKI Final Report)

To test the communications and cybersecurity functionality, Electric Vehicle and charging station vendors have had to ship their products to in-person testing events. This is cumbersome, expensive, inefficient, and an impediment to rapid time-to-deployment. In this project Sandia used COTS hardware and Open-Source Software to develop and demonstrate a more agile, productive approach: testing low-voltage controllers independently from high-voltage power delivery sub-systems. This approach allows communications controllers to be transported easily (e.g. shipped at low cost, checked as airline baggage); set up on a table-top (“bench testing”); and use ordinary 120 VAC outlets to conduct agile testing. Table-top platforms become end nodes that can connect to laboratory and cloud-based servers to test communications and cybersecurity, specifically Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) functionality and interoperability, separately from EV battery charging (power/energy transfer) functionality.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Towards modelling ghostly damped Ly α s

ABSTRACT We use simple models of the spatial structure of the quasar broad-line region (BLR) to investigate the properties of so-called ghostly damped Ly α (DLA) systems detected in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data. These absorbers are characterized by the presence of strong metal lines but no H i Ly α trough is seen in the quasar spectrum indicating that, although the region emitting the quasar continuum is covered by an absorbing cloud, the BLR is only partially covered. One of the models has a spherical geometry, another one is the combination of two wind flows, whereas the third model is a Keplerian disc. The models can reproduce the typical shape of the quasar Ly α emission and different ghostly configurations. We show that the DLA H i column density can be recovered precisely independently of the BLR model used. The size of the absorbing cloud and its distance to the centre of the AGN are correlated. However, it may be possible to disentangle the two using an independent estimate of the radius from the determination of the particle density. Comparison of the model outputs with SDSS data shows that the wind and disc models are more versatile than the spherical one and can be more easily adapted to the observations. For all the systems, we derive log N(H i)(cm−2) > 20.5. With higher quality data, it may be possible to distinguish between the models.

Laloux, Brivael↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Statistics of Extended Debris Disks Measured with Gaia and Planck

Thermal emission from debris disks around stars has been measured using targeted and resolved observations. We present an alternative likelihood-based approach in which temperature maps from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) survey at 857 and 545 GHz are analyzed in conjunction with stellar positions from Gaia to estimate the fraction of stars hosting disks and the thermal emission from the disks. The debris disks are not resolved (or even necessarily detected individually), but their statistical properties and the correlations with stellar properties are measured for several thousand stars. We compare our findings with higher sensitivity surveys of smaller samples of stars. For dimmer stars, in particular K and M dwarfs, we find that about 10% of stars within 80 pc have emission consistent with debris disks. We also report on 80 candidate disks, the majority of which are not previously identified. We have previously constrained the properties of Exo-Oort clouds using Planck data—with future CMB surveys, both components can be measured for different stellar types, providing a new avenue to study the outer parts of planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Effects of Dark Matter and Baryonic Physics on the Milky Way Subhalo Population in the Presence of the Large Magellanic Cloud

Given recent developments in our understanding of the Large Magellanic Cloud's (LMC) impact on the Milky Way's (MW) dark matter subhalo population, we compare the signatures of dark matter and baryonic physics on subhalos in MW systems with realistic LMC analogs. In particular, we study the effects of self-interacting dark matter~(SIDM), warm dark matter (WDM), and the Galactic disk on the peak maximum circular velocity ($V_{\mathrm{peak}}$) function, radial distribution, and spatial distribution of MW and LMC-associated subhalos using cosmological dark matter-only zoom-in simulations of MW+LMC systems. For a fixed abundance of subhalos expected to host dwarf galaxies ($V_{\mathrm{peak}}\gtrsim 20\ \mathrm{km\ s}^{-1}$), SIDM and WDM can produce a similar mass-dependent suppression of the subhalo $V_{\mathrm{peak}}$ function, while disk disruption is mass independent. Subhalos in the inner regions of the MW are preferentially disrupted by both self-interactions and the disk, while suppression in WDM is radially independent. The relative abundance of LMC-associated subhalos is not strongly affected by disk disruption or WDM, but is significantly suppressed in SIDM due to self-interactions with the LMC at early times and with the MW during LMC infall at late times, erasing spatial anisotropy in the MW subhalo population. Furthermore, these results provide avenues to distinguish dark matter and baryonic physics by combining properties of the MW and LMC subhalo populations probed by upcoming observations of satellite galaxies and stellar streams.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sensitivity of thermodynamic profiles retrieved from ground-based microwave and infrared observations to additional input data from active remote sensing instruments and numerical weather prediction models

Accurate and continuous estimates of the thermodynamic structure of the lower atmosphere are highly beneficial to meteorological process understanding and its applications, such as weather forecasting. In this study, the Tropospheric Remotely Observed Profiling via Optimal Estimation (TROPoe) physical retrieval is used to retrieve temperature and humidity profiles from various combinations of input data collected by passive and active remote sensing instruments, in situ surface platforms, and numerical weather prediction models. Among the employed instruments are microwave radiometers (MWRs), infrared spectrometers (IRSs), radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs), ceilometers, and surface sensors. TROPoe uses brightness temperatures and/or radiances from MWRs and IRSs, as well as other observational inputs (virtual temperature from the RASS, cloud-base height from the ceilometer, pressure, temperature, and humidity from the surface sensors) in a physical iterative retrieval approach. This starts from a climatologically reasonable profile of temperature and water vapor, with the radiative transfer model iteratively adjusting the assumed temperature and humidity profiles until the derived brightness temperatures and radiances match those observed by the MWR and/or IRS instruments within a specified uncertainty, as well as within the uncertainties of the other observations, if used as input. In this study, due to the uniqueness of the dataset that includes all the above-mentioned sensors, TROPoe is tested with different observational input combinations, some of which also include information higher than 4 km above ground level (a.g.l.) from the operational Rapid Refresh numerical weather prediction model. These temperature and humidity retrievals are assessed against independent collocated radiosonde profiles under non-cloudy conditions to assess the sensitivity of the TROPoe retrievals to different input combinations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scalability Testing Approach for Internet of Things for Manufacturing SQL and NoSQL Database Latency and Throughput

The proliferation of low-cost sensors and industrial data solutions has continued to push the frontier of manufacturing technology. Machine learning and other advanced statistical techniques stand to provide tremendous advantages in production capabilities, optimization, monitoring, and efficiency. The tremendous volume of data gathered continues to grow, and the methods for storing the data are critical underpinnings for advancing manufacturing technology. This work aims to investigate the ramifications and design tradeoffs within a decoupled architecture of two prominent database management systems (DBMS): sql and NoSQL. A representative comparison is carried out with Amazon Web Services (AWS) DynamoDB and AWS Aurora MySQL. The technologies and accompanying design constraints are investigated, and a side-by-side comparison is carried out through high-fidelity industrial data simulated load tests using metrics from a major US manufacturer. The results support the use of simulated client load testing for comparing the latency of database management systems as a system scales up from the prototype stage into production. As a result of complex query support, MySQL is favored for higher-order insights, while NoSQL can reduce system latency for known access patterns at the expense of integrated query flexibility. Here, by reviewing this work, a manufacturer can observe that the use of high-fidelity load testing can reveal tradeoffs in IoTfM write/ingestion performance in terms of latency that are not observable through prototype-scale testing of commercially available cloud DB solutions.

AWS↗

Origin of Plutonium-244 in the Early Solar System

We investigate the origin in the early Solar System of the short-lived radionuclide 244 Pu (with a half life of 80 Myr) produced by the rapid (r) neutron-capture process. We consider two large sets of r-process nucleosynthesis models and analyse if the origin of 244 Pu in the ESS is consistent with that of the other r and slow (s) neutron-capture process radioactive nuclei. Uncertainties on the r-process models come from both the nuclear physics input and the astrophysical site. The former strongly affects the ratios of isotopes of close mass ( 129 I/ 127 I, 244 Pu/ 238 U, and 247 Pu/ 235 U). The 129 I/ 247 Cm ratio, instead, which involves isotopes of a very different mass, is much more variable than those listed above and is more affected by the physics of the astrophysical site. We consider possible scenarios for the evolution of the abundances of these radioactive nuclei in the galactic interstellar medium and verify under which scenarios and conditions solutions can be found for the origin of 244 Pu that are consistent with the origin of the other isotopes. Solutions are generally found for all the possible different regimes controlled by the interval (δ) between additions from the source to the parcel of interstellar medium gas that ended up in the Solar System, relative to decay timescales. If r-process ejecta in interstellar medium are mixed within a relatively small area (leading to a long δ), we derive that the last event that explains the 129 I and 247 Cm abundances in the early Solar System can also account for the abundance of 244 Pu. Due to its longer half life, however, 244 Pu may have originated from a few events instead of one only. If r-process ejecta in interstellar medium are mixed within a relatively large area (leading to a short δ), we derive that the time elapsed from the formation of the molecular cloud to the formation of the Sun was 9-16 Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are identifying hidden geothermal resources in the USA and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many non-obvious processes and parameters could characterize geothermal resources and could control the ultimate energy potential of geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize geothermal resources, but this data is sparse and multi-scale that has hindered attempts to leverage the datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) give promise to overcome these issues. Modern ML methods and tools can (1) analyze large datasets, (2) assimilate model ensembles that include a multitude of inputs and outputs, (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning between sites with different data quality, (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures from field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify highvalue data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are identifying hidden geothermal resources in the USA and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many non-obvious processes and parameters could characterize geothermal resources and could control the ultimate energy potential of geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize geothermal resources, but this data is sparse and multi-scale. This has hindered attempts to leverage the datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) give promise to overcome these issues. Modern ML methods and tools can (1) analyze large datasets, (2) assimilate model ensembles that include a multitude of inputs and outputs, (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning between sites with different data quality, (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures from field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. In this work, we implement ML-based geothermal exploration and an enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tool to achieve the above goals. Our exploration tool is GeoThermalCloud (GTC) EGS design tool is GeoDT-ML. GTC (github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. It enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. GeoDT-ML (github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/) adds coupling to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git) for stochastic EGS design optimization and performance prediction. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. Contributors to this effort include LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

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