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At least 847 records · Page 47

Clouds in ECMWF's 30 KM Resolution Global Atmospheric Forecast Model (TL639)

Global models of the general circulation of the atmosphere resolve a wide range of length scales, and in particular cloud structures extend from planetary scales to the smallest scales resolvable, now down to 30 km in state-of-the-art models. Even the highest resolution models do not resolve small-scale cloud phenomena seen, for example, in Landsat and other high-resolution satellite images of clouds. Unresolved small-scale disturbances often grow into larger ones through non-linear processes that transfer energy upscale. Understanding upscale cascades is of crucial importance in predicting current weather, and in parameterizing cloud-radiative processes that control long term climate. Several movie animations provide examples of the temporal and spatial variation of cloud fields produced in 4-day runs of the forecast model at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, England, at particular times and locations of simultaneous measurement field campaigns. model resolution is approximately 30 km horizontally (triangular truncation TL639) with 31 vertical levels from surface to stratosphere. Timestep of the model is about 10 minutes, but animation frames are 3 hours apart, at timesteps when the radiation is computed. The animations were prepared from an archive of several 4-day runs at the highest available model resolution, and archived at ECMWF. Cloud, wind and temperature fields in an approximately 1000 km X 1000 km box were retrieved from the archive, then approximately 60 Mb Vis5d files were prepared with the help of Graeme Kelly of ECMWF, and were compressed into MPEG files each less than 3 Mb. We discuss the interaction of clouds and radiation in the model, and compare the variability of cloud liquid as a function of scale to that seen in cloud observations made in intensive field campaigns. Comparison of high-resolution global runs to cloud-resolving models, and to lower resolution climate models is leading to better understanding of the upscale cascade and suggesting new cloud-radiation parameterizations for climate models.

Cahalan, R. F.↗

Atmospheric Risk Assessment for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing System

In 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will pioneer the next generation of robotic Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems, by delivering the largest and most capable rover to date to the surface of Mars. As with previous Mars landers, atmospheric conditions during entry, descent, and landing directly impact the performance of MSL's EDL system. While the vehicle's novel guided entry system allows it to "fly out" a range of atmospheric uncertainties, its trajectory through the atmosphere creates a variety of atmospheric sensitivities not present on previous Mars entry systems and landers. Given the mission's stringent landing capability requirements, understanding the atmosphere state and spacecraft sensitivities takes on heightened importance. MSL's guided entry trajectory differs significantly from recent Mars landers and includes events that generate different atmospheric sensitivities than past missions. The existence of these sensitivities and general advancement in the state of Mars atmospheric knowledge has led the MSL team to employ new atmosphere modeling techniques in addition to past practices. A joint EDL engineering and Mars atmosphere science and modeling team has been created to identify the key system sensitivities, gather available atmospheric data sets, develop relevant atmosphere models, and formulate methods to integrate atmosphere information into EDL performance assessments. The team consists of EDL engineers, project science staff, and Mars atmospheric scientists from a variety of institutions. This paper provides an overview of the system performance sensitivities that have driven the atmosphere modeling approach, discusses the atmosphere data sets and models employed by the team as a result of the identified sensitivities, and introduces the tools used to translate atmospheric knowledge into quantitative EDL performance assessments.

EDL↗

Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH 4 ), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH 4 emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH 4 emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland’s CH 4 emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH 4 . Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH 4 emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH 4 emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Infrared radiation models for atmospheric ozone

A hierarchy of line-by-line, narrow-band, and broadband infrared radiation models are discussed for ozone, a radiatively important atmospheric trace gas. It is shown that the narrow-band (Malkmus) model is in near-precise agreement with the line-by-line model, thus providing a means of testing narrow-band Curtis-Godson scaling, and it is found that this scaling procedure leads to errors in atmospheric fluxes of up to 10 percent. Moreover, this is a direct consequence of the altitude dependence of the ozone mixing ratio. Somewhat greater flux errors arise with use of the broadband model, due to both a lesser accuracy of the broadband scaling procedure and to inherent errors within the broadband model, despite the fact that this model has been tuned to the line-by-line model.

Kratz, David P.↗

The Lyman-Continuum Fluxes and Stellar Parameters of O and Early B-Type Stars

Using the results of the most recent stellar atmosphere models applied to a sample of hot stars, we construct calibrations of effective temperature (T(sub eff)), and gravity (log(sub g)) with a spectral type and luminosity class for Galactic 0-type and early B-type stars. From the model results we also derive an empirical relation between the bolometric correction and T(sub eff) and log g. Using a sample of stars with known distances located in OB associations in the Galaxy and the Large Magellanic Cloud, we derive a new calibration of M(sub v) with spectral class. With these new calibrations and the stellar atmosphere models of Kurucz, we calculate the physical parameters and ionizing photon luminosities in the H(0) and He(0) continua for O and early B-type stars. We find substantial differences between our values of the Lyman- continuum luminosity and those reported in the literature. We also discuss the systematic discrepancy between O-type stellar masses derived from spectroscopic models and those derived from evolutionary tracks. Most likely, the cause of this 'mass discrepancy' lies primarily in the atmospheric models, which are plane parallel and hydrostatic and therefore do not account for an extended atmosphere and the velocity fields in a stellar wind. Finally, we present a new computation of the Lyman-continuum luminosity from 429 known O stars located within 2.5 kpc of the Sun. We find the total ionizing luminosity from this population ((Q(sub 0)(sup T(sub ot))) = 7.0 x 10(exp 51) photons/s) to be 47% larger than that determined using the Lyman continuum values tabulated by Panagia.

Vacca, William D.↗

A study of forecast growth with a barotropic model of the atmosphere

A barotropic model of the atmosphere was used to test various sources of forecast error. These errors are classified as truncation error, physical error, or initial error. It was shown that growth patterns due to each category differ significantly. Initial errors were shown not to grow in a barotropic model contrary to reports of other studies which indicate that they basically do grow. Also, random initial errors were shown to decrease due to the filtering effect of the model itself. Results seem to indicate that instabilities are required for error growth, be they barotropic or baroclinic, and that random errors are not representative of true initial conditions.

Halberstam, I. M.↗

Evaluating Implementations of the Immersed Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The terrain-following coordinate system used by many atmospheric models can cause numerical instabilities due to discretization errors as resolved terrain slopes increase and the grid becomes highly skewed. The immersed boundary (IB) method, which does not require the grid to conform to the terrain, has been shown to alleviate these errors, and has been used successfully for high-resolution atmospheric simulations over steep terrain, including vertical building surfaces. Since many previous applications of IB methods to atmospheric models have used very fine grid resolution (5 m or less), the present study seeks to evaluate IB method performance over a range of grid resolutions and aspect ratios. Two classes of IB algorithms, velocity reconstruction and shear stress reconstruction, are tested within the common framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Performance is evaluated in two test cases, one with flat terrain and the other with the topography of Askervein Hill, both under neutrally stratified conditions. WRF-IB results are compared to similarity theory, observations, and native WRF results. Despite sensitivity to the location at which the IB intersects the model grid, the velocity reconstruction IB method shows consistent performance when used with a hybrid RANS/LES surface scheme. The shear stress reconstruction IB method is not sensitive to the grid intersection, but is less consistent and near-surface velocity errors can occur at coarse resolutions. This study represents an initial investigation of IB method variability across grid resolutions in WRF. Future work will focus on improving IB method performance at intermediate to coarse resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of model Titan atmospheric components using ion mobility spectrometry

The Gas Chromatograph-Ion Mobility Spectrometer (GC-IMS) was proposed as an analytical technique for the analysis of Titan's atmosphere during the Cassini Mission. The IMS is an atmospheric pressure, chemical detector that produces an identifying spectrum of each chemical species measured. When the IMS is combined with a GC as a GC-IMS, the GC is used to separate the sample into its individual components, or perhaps small groups of components. The IMS is then used to detect, quantify, and identify each sample component. Conventional IMS detection and identification of sample components depends upon a source of energetic radiation, such as beta radiation, which ionizes the atmospheric pressure host gas. This primary ionization initiates a sequence of ion-molecule reactions leading to the formation of sufficiently energetic positive or negative ions, which in turn ionize most constituents in the sample. In conventional IMS, this reaction sequence is dominated by the water cluster ion. However, many of the light hydrocarbons expected in Titan's atmosphere cannot be analyzed by IMS using this mechanism at the concentrations expected. Research at NASA Ames and PCP Inc., has demonstrated IMS analysis of expected Titan atmospheric components, including saturated aliphatic hydrocarbons, using two alternate sample ionizations mechanisms. The sensitivity of the IMS to hydrocarbons such as propane and butane was increased by several orders of magnitude. Both ultra dry (waterless) IMS sample ionization and metastable ionization were successfully used to analyze a model Titan atmospheric gas mixture.

Kojiro, D. R.↗

LANL Accident Analysis and Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling [Slides]

After completion of this course, the analyst will understand the differences between an unmitigated analysis and a mitigated analysis. After completion of this course, the analyst will know the key receptors that a radiological and hazardous chemical accident analysis must consider. After completion of this course, the analyst will understand how to calculate a radiological release source term and a toxic chemical release source term for various phenomenology. After completion of this course, the analyst will understand how to calculate a radiological and toxic chemical health insult to key receptors and compare to consequence thresholds. After completion of this course, the analyst will understand the role of atmospheric dispersion in radiological and toxic consequence calculations. After completion of this course, the analyst will understand atmospheric dispersion modeling and the inputs to and outputs from the MACCS/POSTMAX codes.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model

A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

Developments in Atmosphere Revitalization Modeling and Simulation

"NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program is pioneering new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities, and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond Earth orbit" (NASA 2012). These forays beyond the confines of earth's gravity will place unprecedented demands on launch systems. They must not only blast out of earth's gravity well as during the Apollo moon missions, but also launch the supplies needed to sustain a crew over longer periods for exploration missions beyond earth's moon. Thus all spacecraft systems, including those for the separation of metabolic carbon dioxide and water from a crewed vehicle, must be minimized with respect to mass, power, and volume. Emphasis is also placed on system robustness both to minimize replacement parts and ensure crew safety when a quick return to earth is not possible. Current efforts are focused on improving the current state-of-the-art systems utilizing fixed beds of sorbent pellets by evaluating structured sorbents, seeking more robust pelletized sorbents, and examining alternate bed configurations to improve system efficiency and reliability. These development efforts combine testing of sub-scale systems and multi-physics computer simulations to evaluate candidate approaches, select the best performing options, and optimize the configuration of the selected approach, which is then implemented in a full-scale integrated atmosphere revitalization test. This paper describes the development of atmosphere revitalization models and simulations. A companion paper discusses the hardware design and sorbent screening and characterization effort in support of the Atmosphere Revitalization Recovery and Environmental Monitoring (ARREM) project within the AES program.

Knox, James C.↗

A Joint NICER and XMM-Newton View of the "Magnificent" Thermally Emitting X-ray Isolated Neutron Star RX J1605.3+3249

Thermally emitting X-ray isolated neutron stars (NSs) represent excellent targets for testing cooling surface emission and atmosphere models, which are used to infer the physical parameters of the NS. Among the seven known members of this class, RXJ1605.3+3249 is the only one that still lacks confirmation of its spin period. Here we analyze NICER and XMM-Newton observations of RXJ1605.3+3249, in order to address its timing and spectral behavior. Contrary to a previous tentative detection, but in agreement with the recent work by Pires et al., we find no significant pulsation with a pulsed fraction higher than 1.3% (3σ) for periods above 150 ms. We also find a limit of 2.6% for periods above 2 ms, despite searches in different energy bands. The X-ray spectrum can be fit by either a double-blackbody model or by a single-temperature magnetized atmosphere model, both modified by a Gaussian absorption line at ∼0.44 keV. The origin of the absorption feature as a proton cyclotron line or as an atomic transition in the NS atmosphere is discussed. The predictions of the best-fit X-ray models extended to IR, optical, and UV bands, are compared with archival data. Our results are interpreted in the framework of a fallback disk scenario.

Christian Malacaria↗

Atmospheric impacts on EDL maneuver targeting for the InSight mission and unguided Mars landers

Early in operational testing for the InSight mission to Mars, it was discovered that the final maneuver to target the entry-interface point (EIP) was unexpectedly sensitive, in both magnitude and direction, to planned atmosphere model updates that would be based on real-time measurements of the Martian atmosphere by Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Upon investigation, the team realized that the Phoenix mission also discovered this sensitivity during its operational testing. A further investigation identified that maneuver sensitivity to real-time atmosphere updates was a result of the fact that both the EFPA and ground target were being held fixed, constraining the maneuver in a way that forced the entry time to change in order to compensate for changes to the nominal trajectory from updating the atmosphere model. The final maneuver occurs 22 hours prior to entry, at which point it is very expensive to change entry time. The study also revealed that any unguided Mars entry, descent, and landing (EDL) mission would be impacted by this sensitivity if it used real-time atmosphere observations to model the nominal expected atmosphere used for maneuver targeting of the EIP. This paper discusses the results of that investigation and presents a number of mitigations as well as the consequences of ignoring the sensitivity.

Kipp, Devin↗

Calculations of the limb radiance of Venus in the 600 to 700 per cm region and their application to spacecraft navigation.

Limb radiance profiles for Venus in the 600 to 700 per cm spectral band are derived for two sets of model atmospheres. The radiance computations make use of a strong line transmission model. Both an extreme variability atmospheric model set and a normal variability set are derived and discussed, as are the effects of clouds and surface pressure uncertainties. A horizon locator concept based on the derived radiance profiles is presented, through its implementation in a conceptual systems design. The locator concept developed shows promise of locating the Venus limb to better than 2 km accuracy at the horizon, or 0.05 deg for a 500-km orbit.

Ohring, G.↗

A linear feedback guidance law for an Aeromaneuvering Orbit-to-Orbit Shuttle

The sensitivity of the trajectory of an Aeromaneuvering Orbit-to-Orbit Shuttle (AMOOS) to unpredictable variations in atmospheric density is shown and a compensating guidance law is developed. The sensitivity was determined using a varying atmosphere model whose statistical properties matched those of actual atmosphere data. This study showed that a compensating guidance law is crucial to the feasibility of AMOOS. Using an optimal regulator approach, a linear feedback law for bank angle was developed and checked out with the atmosphere model. This law uses the altitude profile of the trajectory to control the amount of energy dissipated within the atmosphere.

Rehder, J. J.↗

The GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System-Documentation of Versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0

This report documents the GEOS-5 global atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), including the versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0, which have been implemented in products distributed for use by various NASA instrument team algorithms and ultimately for the Modem Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The DAS is the integration of the GEOS-5 atmospheric model with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis, a joint analysis system developed by the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the NASA/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The primary performance drivers for the GEOS DAS are temperature and moisture fields suitable for the EOS instrument teams, wind fields for the transport studies of the stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry communities, and climate-quality analyses to support studies of the hydrological cycle through MERRA. The GEOS-5 atmospheric model has been approved for open source release and is available from: http://opensource.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/GEOS-5/GEOS-5.php.

M. M. Rienecker↗

Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Mars-GRAM Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that Mars-GRAM when used for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3 is less than realistic. A comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars- GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) has been undertaken for locations of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST on Mars. The preliminary results from this study have validated the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) limb data. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars- GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. Unrealistic energy absorption by uniform atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes. To solve this pressure-density problem, a density factor value was determined for tau=.3, 1 and 3 that will adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 with MapYears 1 and 2 MGCM output at comparable dust loading. Currently, these density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls. Results will be presented of the work underway to derive better multipliers by including possible variation with latitude and/or Ls. This is achieved by comparison of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 output with TES limb data. The addition of these density factors to Mars-GRAM will improve the results of the sensitivity studies done for large optical depths. Answers may also be provided to the issues raised in a recent study by Desai(2008). Desai has shown that the actual landing sites of Mars Pathfinder, the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix Mars Lander have been further downrange than predicted by models prior to landing. Desai s reconstruction of their entries into the Martian atmosphere showed that the models consistently predicted higher densities than those found upon EDL. The solution of this problem would be important to the Mars Program since future exploration of Mars by landers and rovers will require more accurate landing capabilities, especially for the proposed Mars Sample Return mission.

Justh, Hilary L.↗