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At least 847 records · Page 47

Regional Disparities in the Beneficial Effects of Rising CO2 Emissions on Crop Water Productivity

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated carbon dioxide and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find carbon dioxide effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%-27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rain fed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated carbon dioxide could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modeling the effects of rising carbon dioxide across crop and hydrological modeling communities.

Deryng, Delphine↗

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.

climate change↗

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗

Investigation of the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Aerosol Intervention

Abstract As risks from tropical cyclones (TCs) are fueled by climate change escalation, there is an urgent need for transformational solutions to complement traditional approaches. Seeding TCs using aerosols can be a promising method to reduce cyclone intensity, supported by theoretical understanding of the microphysical effects of aerosols on TC clouds. The ideal time to intervene effectively in TCs is likely during their initial stage, before TC wind speeds reach their peak. However, studies exploring potential aerosol effects on TC formation remain scarce. This study investigates how a TC embryo responds to the addition of aerosols of varying sizes using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a spectral‐bin microphysics model. We found that aerosols of different sizes and concentrations distinctively affect the pre‐TC vortex's microstructure and dynamics. Fine and ultrafine aerosols enhance the latent heat of condensation, freezing, deposition, and riming, initially intensifying the vortex. However, this results in enhancement of the cold pool, thereby reducing inflow and surface fluxes, subsequently weakening the vortex. Coarse aerosols produce the opposite effect to that of fine and ultrafine aerosols. Coarse aerosols lead to a slower initial acceleration owing to enhanced warm rain. However, the resulting weaker cold pool is insufficient to effectively reduce the strength of the vortex at the later stage. This study provides critical insights into how aerosols of varying sizes and concentrations modulate the energy cascade and impact the evolution of a TC embryo, laying the groundwork for further research on TC risk management through aerosol intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source characterization of volatile organic compounds at Carlsbad Caverns National Park

Carlsbad Caverns National Park (CAVE), located in southeastern New Mexico, experiences elevated ground-level ozone (O 3 ) exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 70 ppbv. It is situated adjacent to the Permian Basin, one of the largest oil and gas (O&G) producing regions in the US. In 2019, the Carlsbad Caverns Air Quality Study (CarCavAQS) was conducted to examine impacts of different sources on ozone precursors, including nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Here, we use positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis of speciated VOCs to characterize VOC sources at CAVE during the study. Seven factors were identified. Three factors composed largely of alkanes and aromatics with different lifetimes were attributed to O&G development and production activities. VOCs in these factors were typical of those emitted by O&G operations. Associated residence time analyses (RTA) indicated their contributions increased in the park during periods of transport from the Permian Basin. These O&G factors were the largest contributor to VOC reactivity with hydroxyl radicals (62%). Two PMF factors were rich in photochemically generated secondary VOCs; one factor contained species with shorter atmospheric lifetimes and one with species with longer lifetimes. RTA of the secondary factors suggested impacts of O&G emissions from regions farther upwind, such as Eagle Ford Shale and Barnett Shale formations. The last two factors were attributed to alkenes likely emitted from vehicles or other combustion sources in the Permian Basin and regional background VOCs, respectively. Implications: Carlsbad Caverns National Park experiences ground-level ozone exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standard. Volatile organic compounds are critical precursors to ozone formation. Measurements in the Park identify oil and gas production and development activities as the major contributors to volatile organic compounds. Emissions from the adjacent Permian Basin contributed to increases in primary species that enhanced local ozone formation. Observations of photochemically generated compounds indicate that ozone was also transported from shale formations and basins farther upwind. Therefore, emission reductions of volatile organic compounds from oil and gas activities are important for mitigating elevated O 3 in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determining the Efficiency of Nitrogen Blanketing to Mitigate Corrosion in Hanford’s Transfer Line System

The Hanford site stores large quantities of radioactive waste in underground, carbon-steel, double-shell tanks. The waste is transferred between the tanks using piping that consists of carbon-steel pipes and carbon-steel encasements. The transfer lines have shown extensive corrosion on both the interior of the casing and exterior of the carrier pipes. Nitrogen blanketing, used to displace the oxygen in the transfer lines, was hypothesized to reduce the corrosion of the transfer lines. Experimental studies were conducted to investigate the effect of oxygen concentration on the corrosion rate and the initiation of pitting on carbon steel. The results indicated that controlling the oxygen concentration to 0% effectively mitigates corrosion. However, at 5 vol% oxygen, a significant increase in the general corrosion rate and pitting corrosion is observed.

Atmospheric Corrosion↗

Electrochemical Conversion of Carbon Dioxide to Alcohols

The vast quantities of fossil fuels used by our society have led to unprecedented atmospheric carbon dioxide levels with widespread climate impacts. Electrochemical conversion of carbon dioxide to valuable fuels and chemicals is a promising technology to utilize carbon dioxide emitted from coal-fired power plants. In this project, the team developed an integrated electrolyzer system that takes the flue gas from the power plant and produce C2/C3 alcohols (i.e., ethanol and n-propanol) through a two-stage electrolysis process. The pretreated carbon dioxide from the flue gas is converted into carbon monoxide by the first stage carbon dioxide electrolysis, followed by the second stage where the produced carbon monoxide is further converted into liquid C2/C3 alcohols with a high selectivity and energy efficiency. Impact and anticipated fate of flue gas contaminants, such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, on the proposed technology was also evaluated. Furthermore, a full analysis of economics and life-cycle of the carbon dioxide electrolysis technology for carbon dioxide emissions mitigation from coal-fired power plants was conducted to evaluate the economic feasibility and carbon dioxide mitigation potential of the proposed technology.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Scalable High-H 2 Flux, Robust Thin Film Solid Oxide Electrolyzer

This project was aimed at the development of proton-conducting SOEC (P-SOEC) technology that has the potential to meet key DOE H 2 production targets. A decreased proton resistance of the electrolyte and Faradaic efficiency improvements were sought to increase the fraction of consumed electrolysis power that is used to actually generate H 2 , while simultaneously decreasing cost dramatically. Moreover, the development project was intended to yield maximum durability through the use of a steam protective layer. Furthermore, sputtering was used to overcome processing challenges that have hampered P-SOEC development, while the low-temperature operation goal of 500 °C was expected to aid in mitigating thermally activated long-term degradation. The approach to high-performance, lower-temperature SOECs leveraged our existing SOFC Ni-cermet anode support and extensive thin-film sputtering layer-deposition experience. Rather than an all-in-one, reversible fuel cell approach which has many unacceptable tradeoffs, we focused on the many benefits to hydrogen generating SOECs, including the existence of synergies for reduced manufacturing costs (e.g., SOECs and SOFCs share supporting layers and overall manufacturing processing). The end result of this project was expected to increase current performance at 500 °C from approximately 0.8 A/cm 2 (at 60% Faradaic efficiency) at 1.4 V to > 1 A/cm 2 (at > 95% Faradaic efficiency) with a > 40% reduction in system cost and to enable operation of P-SOECs in steam contents >> 20% for a goal of a > 40,000 hours lifetime. To enable 500 °C operation in a very high steam atmosphere (> 20%), we proposed the use of a sputtered dense thin film (~0.1-1 µm thick) of high-stability Ba(Zr,Y)O 3 (BZY) to protect the Ba(Ce,Zr,Y,Yb)O 3 (BCZYYb) electrolyte. The BZCYYb, in turn, blocks the hole conductivity of the BZY to boost Faradaic efficiency. As FE increases, more of the consumed electricity is used in electrolysis to generate H 2 , rather than being shunted. Additionally, as cell resistance decreases, the voltage required to maintain current decreases, as well as the power required to generate the same amount of H 2 . With the proposed enhancements, these two factors result in the final 46% decrease in power needed to run the system. Likewise, a production rate of 50,000 kg H 2 /day will require 55% less active area, such that a system will need only 650 cells for an 80 cm 2 active area instead of ~1,440. Taking the 2016 DOE projected current cost and modifying the electricity cost and linearly scaling the other costs (except thermal feedstock) based on the cell area improvement, results in a 44% decrease in lifetime system cost, or a decrease from $\$$4.95/kg H 2 to $\$$2.75/kg H 2 . This is well below the 2018 DOE target of $\$$4/kg H 2 . The results from this project showed that we can create a P-SOEC with enhanced steam stability using two different electrolytes (i.e., one on top of the other) and achieve sufficiently low area specific resistance (ASR) to achieve the target performance. Unfortunately, due to extended delays at the beginning of the project and related supply chain and equipment access issues, we were not able to completely show increased Faradaic efficiency for the P-SOEC and therefore were unable to demonstrate the full proof of concept within the first budget period budget. While there are still challenges that remain to be solved, significant progress was made during this project and the concept still has merit that warrants further development.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Dust Interactions on Small Solar System Bodies and Technology Considerations for Exploration

Small‐bodies such as asteroids and Mars' moons Phobos and Deimos have relatively unknown regolith environments. It is hypothesized that dust preserved in the regolith on the surfaces will have similar mechanical properties to lunar dust because of similar formation processes from micrometeorite bombardment, low relative gravity for slow settling times, and virtually no weathering because there is no atmosphere. This combination of processes infers that small‐body dust particles will be highly angular and retain abrasive properties. The focus of this paper uses the mission architecture and engineering design for an asteroid hopper known as Hedgehog, a spherical spacecraft with several symmetric spikes used to aid with tumbling mobility in a low gravity environment. Dust abrasion considerations are highlighted throughout the paper relating to the lead authors' previous work, but act as an example of one of many important dust or regolith physical properties that need to be considered for future exploration. Measurable regolith properties are summarized in order to identify technologies that may be useful for exploration in terms of scientific return and spacecraft design. Previous instruments are summarized in this paper that could be used on the Hedgehog. Opportunities for hardware payloads are highlighted that include low mass solutions or dualpurpose instruments that can measure regolith or dust properties. Finally, dust mitigation suggestions are made for vehicles of this mobility profile.

Kobrick, Ryan,↗

Aldehyde cool-flame chemistry explains a missing source of organic acids

Combustion emission is a significant source of organic acids, impacting atmospheric chemistry and climate. Their formation mechanisms, however, remain poorly understood, leading to underestimation in kinetic models. We investigate the cool-flame oxidation of key combustion intermediates—C 1 –C 4 aldehydes and benzaldehyde. Using in-situ synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet photoionization mass spectrometry, we observe the direct conversion of aldehydes to organic acids, a process enhanced by HO 2 radicals. Quantum chemistry calculations reveal that the reaction of RC(O)O 2 with HO 2 on the singlet potential energy surface contributes to organic acids. Incorporating this pathway into a kinetic model significantly improves organic acid prediction. Despite the high-temperature nature of engine combustion, significant spatial and temporal inhomogeneities (e.g., near-wall regions and crevice volumes) lead to localized cool-flame conditions, facilitating organic acid formation and emission. Elucidating the acid formation under cool-flame conditions provides a critical mechanism for accurately modelling anthropogenic organic acid emissions and developing mitigation strategies.

SVUV-PIMS↗

Corrosion Protection of Launch Infrastructure and Hardware Through the Space Shuttle Program

Corrosion, the environmentally induced degradation of materials, has been a challenging and costly problem that has affected NASA's launch operations since the inception of the Space Program. Corrosion studies began at NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in 1966 during the Gemini/Apollo Programs with the evaluation of long-term protective coatings for the atmospheric protection of carbon steel. NASA's KSC Beachside Corrosion Test Site, which has been documented by the American Society of Materials (ASM) as one of the most corrosive, naturally occurring environments in the world, was established at that time. With the introduction of the Space Shuttle in 1981, the already highly corrosive natural conditions at the launch pad were rendered even more severe by the acidic exhaust from the solid rocket boosters. In the years that followed, numerous efforts at KSC identified materials, coatings, and maintenance procedures for launch hardware and equipment exposed to the highly corrosiye environment at the launch pads. Knowledge on materials degradation, obtained by facing the highly corrosive conditions of the Space Shuttle launch environment, as well as limitations imposed by the environmental impact of corrosion control, have led researchers at NASA's Corrosion Technology Laboratory to establish a new technology development capability in the area of corrosion prevention, detection, and mitigation at KSC that is included as one of the "highest priority" technologies identified by NASA's integrated technology roadmap. A historical perspective highlighting the challenges encountered in protecting launch infrastructure and hardware from corrosion during the life of the Space Shuttle program and the new technological advances that have resulted from facing the unique and highly corrosive conditions of the Space Shuttle launch environment will be presented.

Calle, L. M.↗

Optimizing GRACE/GRACE-FO Data and A priori Hydrological Knowledge for Improved Global Terrestial Water Storage Component Estimates

The comprehensive information of global terrestrial water storage (TWS) components (soil moisture, groundwater, snow, surface water) is essential for effective assessment of water resource availability, climate variation, and disaster mitigation measures. Observational data provided by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On satellite missions offer global TWS variation (ΔTWS) in terms of an integrated water column. However, GRACE spatial resolution is relatively coarse (i.e., 3°), and the vertically integrated value cannot be separated into ΔTWS components directly. This study demonstrates the feasibility to estimate ΔTWS components at any desired spatial-vertical resolution by effectively maintaining the native resolution of the employed hydrological knowledge. It utilizes a least-squares with constraints (LSC) approach to rigorously incorporate GRACE and GRACE-FO data and a priori hydrological knowledge, with the aim to improve global ΔTWS components’ accuracy and spatial resolution. The 3°×3° GRACE mascon derived ΔTWS data is disaggregated into the 0.5°×0.5° anomalous soil moisture storage (ΔSMS), groundwater storage (ΔGWS), snow water equivalent (ΔSWE), and surface water storage (ΔSWS) based on the covariance information obtained from the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) and the PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) models. Evaluation with different ground measurements and satellite products between 2002 and 2019 exhibits significantly improved accuracy in all individual ΔTWS components. This improvement is of particular note in ΔGWS and ΔSWS, where the LSC approach increases the globally averaged correlation values by approximately 0.13 and 0.05, respectively. Reliable prior knowledge leads to a more accurate ΔTWS component estimate, and the use of ensemble-mean knowledge yields the best result.

GRACE↗

Membrane-Based Gas Traps for Ammonia, Freon-21, and Water Systems to Simplify Ground Processing

Gas traps are critical for the smooth operation of coolant loops because gas bubbles can cause loss of centrifugal pump prime, interference with sensor readings, inhibition of heat transfer, and blockage of passages to remote systems. Coolant loops are ubiquitous in space flight hardware, and thus there is a great need for this technology. Conventional gas traps will not function in micro-gravity due to the absence of buoyancy forces. Therefore, clever designs that make use of adhesion and momentum are required for adequate separation, preferable in a single pass. The gas traps currently used in water coolant loops on the International Space Station are composed of membrane tube sets in a shell. Each tube set is composed of a hydrophilic membrane (used for water transport and capture of bubbles) and a hydrophobic membrane (used for venting of air bubbles). For the hydrophilic membrane, there are two critical pressures, the pressure drop and the bubble pressure. The pressure drop is the decrease in system pressure across the gas trap. The bubble pressure is the pressure required for air bubbles to pass across the water filled membrane. A significant difference between these pressures is needed to ensure complete capture of air bubbles in a single pass. Bubbles trapped by the device adsorb on the hydrophobic membrane in the interior of the hydrophilic membrane tube. After adsorption, the air is vented due to a pressure drop of approximately 1 atmosphere across the membrane. For water systems, the air is vented to the ambient (cabin). Because water vapor can also transport across the hydrophobic membrane, it is critical that a minimum surface area is used to avoid excessive water loss (would like to have a closed loop for the coolant). The currently used gas traps only provide a difference in pressure drop and bubble pressure of 3-4 psid. This makes the gas traps susceptible to failure at high bubble loading and if gas venting is impaired. One mechanism for the latter is when particles adhere to the hydrophobic membrane, promoting formation of a water layer about it that can blind the membrane for gas transport (Figure 1). This mechanism is the most probable cause for observed failures with the existing design. The objective of this project was to devise a strategy for choosing new membrane materials (database development and procedure), redesign of the gas trap to mitigate blinding effects, and to develop a design that can be used in ammonia and Freon-21 coolant loops.

Ritchie, Stephen M. C.↗

Material Response Analysis of PICA-NuSil at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System

Phenolic impregnated carbon ablator (PICA) is a thermal protection system (TPS) that gained heritage during the Stardust mission and is the baseline TPS material for expeditions to Mars (e.g., Mars Science Laboratory and Mars 2020).1 PICA is friable; therefore, a polysiloxane resin (NuSil CV-1144-0) is deposited onto the surface of flight hardware before assembly, test, and launch operations (ATLO) to mitigate particle shedding. Furthermore, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) and Mars 2020 heatshields were instrumented with an array of thermocouple plugs (MEDLI Integrated Sensor Plugs or MISP) designed to measure the in-depth thermal response of PICA during flight. Post-flight analysis of MISP data suggests that recession was lower than predicted, and NuSil is suspected as a reasonable cause. NuSil primarily consists of a copolymer blend of dimethyl and diphenyl-substituted polysiloxane resin. Four decades of research in the field of polymer-derived ceramics demonstrate that polysiloxane resins form oxidation-resistant silicon oxycarbide materials at pyrolysis temperatures as low as 800 °C. -2 Furthermore, silicon oxycarbide materials exhibit excellent thermal stability at relatively high-temperatures (< 1200 °C) but eventually decompose via carbothermal reduction. -3 Therefore, it is reasonable to suggest that NuSil forms an oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating on the TPS surface and influences the material response during atmospheric entry. Evidence for this notion was observed during prior arc-jet testing at both the Aerodynamic Heating Facility (AHF) and the Panel Test Facility (PTF) at the NASA Ames Research Center. Articles of PICA were subjected to testing in airflow, and a temperature discontinuity was recorded at the surface of coupons coated with NuSil. A glassy coating was observed to form at the surface in shear flow configurations (wedge and panel) under moderate heat fluxes. Furthermore, state-of-the-art material response models have yet to account for the underlying physics and chemistry of the temperature discontinuity. To this end, a pathfinder test campaign was executed at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) to enhance the fundamental understanding of PICA-NuSil ablation phenomena and provide a preliminary data set to aid in the development of material response models.

PICA↗

Potential Biofilm Control Strategies for Extended Spaceflight Missions

Biofilms, surface-adherent microbial communities, are associated with microbial fouling and corrosion in terrestrial water-distribution systems. Biofilms are also present in human spaceflight, particularly in the Water Recovery System (WRS) on the International Space Station (ISS). The WRS is comprised of the Urine Processor Assembly (UPA) and the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) which together recycles wastewater from human urine and recovered humidity from the ISS atmosphere. These wastewaters and various process streams are continually inoculated with microorganisms primarily arising from the space crew microbiome. Biofilm-related fouling has been encountered and addressed in spacecraft in low Earth orbit, including ISS and the Russian Mir Space Station. However, planned future missions beyond low Earth orbit to the Moon and Mars present additional challenges, as resupplying spare parts or support materials would be impractical and the mission timeline would be in the order of years in the case of a mission to Mars. In addition, future missions are expected to include a period of dormancy in which the WRS would be unused for an extended duration. The concepts developed in this review arose from a workshop including NASA personnel and representatives with biofilm expertise from a wide range of industrial and academic backgrounds. Here, we address current strategies that are employed on Earth for biofilm control, including antifouling coatings and biocides and mechanisms for mitigating biofilm growth and damage. These ideas are presented in the context of their applicability to spaceflight and identify proposed new topics of biofilm control that need to be addressed in order to facilitate future extended, crewed, spaceflight missions.

Luis Zea↗

Comparing the Earth Impact Flux from Comets and Near-Earth Asteroids

Long-period comets (LPC), defined here as those active comets with orbital periods greater than 200 years, are the most difficult objects to mitigate should one be found on an Earth threatening trajectory. The arrival of these objects from the distant Oort cloud cannot be predicted and the impact warning time would be measured in a few months - not years. At the distance of Jupiter, an inactive cometary nucleus with a diameter of one kilometer and a geometric albedo equal to 0.04 would have an apparent magnitude fainter than 25 near opposition and, hence would be well outside the detection capability of current NEO search telescopes. In general LPCs do not become active, and hence discoverable, until inside the orbit of Jupiter and it takes but nine months for a LPC to travel the distance from Jupiter's orbit to that of the Earth.Estimating the impact energy for long-period comets is particularly difficult because the sizes and masses of these objects are not well known. Their solid nuclei are hidden from ground-based telescopes by their gas and dust atmospheres and even when nearby spacecraft observations can determine a size and shape for a cometary nucleus, there are no direct determinations of any cometary mass or bulk density to date. However, a variety of indirect bulk density determinations consistently provide values below one gram per cubic centimeter, the value for water. From measurements made by the Deep Impact spacecraft during its encounter with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005, the bulk density was estimated to be 0.6 grams per cubic centimeter. The mean impact velocity of a LPC is about 51 km/s, three times the 17 km/s value for a typical near-Earth asteroid (NEA) so the impact energy for an LPC would be 9 times that of a NEA of similar mass. However, the bulk density of a comet (approx. 0.6 g/cu cm) is several times less than the density of a stony NEA (approx. 2.6 g/ cu cm) so for a LPC and a stony NEA of the same size, the LPC's impact energy would be about twice that of the NEA.To properly allocate the limited resources available for NEO surveys and physical characterization, it is important to understand the relative threat from long-period comets versus the threat posed by near-Earth asteroids.

near Earth objects↗

Retrospectives: Current State of Knowledge on the Intersection of Spaceflight Stressors and Microbial Risks to Crew and Craft

OVERVIEW The spaceflight environment has several unique stressors that affect the health of both the crew and the spacecraft. An area of continued, albeit incomplete, study is the interaction of these stressors on microbial populations inherent to both astronauts and spacecraft surfaces and systems. A primary concern is the potential for the spaceflight environment to perturb the phenotype of these populations towards negative outcomes for crew and craft. In order to effectively mitigate these potential risks, they must first be characterized. We performed a retrospective literature analysis to assess the current state of knowledge regarding the affects of ionizing radiation and elevated CO2 on relevant microbial populations. The results of these retrospectives will guide next steps in the decisions of what (if any) further studies should be pursued and to guide decisions of the need for countermeasures. STRESSORS Ionizing radiation. The health risk involved with increased exposure to cosmic radiation has been studied in crew for 35+ years, with human health and cancer risk being the main focus. However, space radiation could also affect both the resident microorganisms aboard the ISS and the normal, healthy astronaut microbiomes that are of direct concern for crew health. A retrospective review of over 250 publications was accomplished looking at the impact of cumulative ionizing radiation doses lower than 3 Gy (chronic or acute) on microbial populations. Elevated CO2. The health risk involved with elevated atmospheric CO2 in spacecraft, primarily focusing on human toxicological risks, is understudied. The current Spaceflight Maximum Allowance Concentration for 24-hour average CO2 is 0.4% (3 mm Hg), which is significantly higher than terrestrial levels (0.04%). Whether these elevated ambient CO2 levels aboard spacecraft influence the diversity and phenotypic responses of the resident microbial communities from both the spacecraft environment (air, surface, water) and crew members (gut, nasal, skin microbiomes) is not known. A retrospective review was accomplished looking at the impact of chronic CO2 exposure up to 0.7% (5 mm Hg) for up to 6 months and acute exposure up to 2.6% (20 mm Hg) for up to 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBIOME OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT The microbiome of the built spacecraft environment has been sampled consistently over the course of human spaceflight and significant advancements have been made in identifying microbial populations on the ISS. The dominant source of microbes on spacecraft surfaces are human-derived. Once in the spacecraft built environment, the extreme environment selects for features that enhance survival. While efforts to understand potential antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity of ISS isolates is robust, there is little to no understanding of which spaceflight environmental stressors, to include ionizing radiation or elevated CO2, drive the evolutionary trajectory of spacecraft-associated microbial populations. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBE-HOST INTERACTIONS The host-microbiome field has emerged as an important factor in human health on Earth as well in spaceflight. The field is struggling with the complexity of the system under investigation as there is substantial taxonomic and functional heterogeneity in these communities, making it difficult to establish clear stimulus-response dynamics. Taxonomic characterization is the norm; however, the functional role of each community member is key to linking environmental perturbations to potential dysbiosis. For both ionizing radiation and elevated CO2, the likely target of the perturbation is the host tissue, not the microbes themselves.. Any resulting changes to the microbial community composition and/or function is likely a result of adapting to those changes in the host physiology. RECOMMENDATIONS Emphasize functional characterization as opposed to taxonomic characterization of microbial communities. Increase the number of investigations using chronic, spaceflight-relevant doses of ionizing radiation. MoBE studies should move away from observational studies towards predictive modeling of community dynamics. Continue to develop scale-down models, such as tissues-on-a-chip & defined microbial communities. Focus on the crew response to elevated CO2 over MoBE considerations. Assess how direct contact with the hypercapnic environment affects skin microbiome dynamics.

retrospective↗

Retrospectives: Intersection of Spaceflight Stressors and Microbial Risk to Crew and Craft

OVERVIEW The spaceflight environment has several unique stressors that affect the health of both the crew and the spacecraft. An area of continued, albeit incomplete, study is the interaction of these stressors on microbial populations inherent to both astronauts and spacecraft surfaces and systems. A primary concern is the potential for the spaceflight environment to perturb the phenotype of these populations towards negative outcomes for crew and craft. In order to effectively mitigate these potential risks, they must first be characterized. We performed a retrospective literature analysis to assess the current state of knowledge regarding the affects of ionizing radiation and elevated CO2 on relevant microbial populations. The results of these retrospectives will guide next steps in the decisions of what (if any) further studies should be pursued and to guide decisions of the need for countermeasures. STRESSORS Ionizing radiation. The health risk involved with increased exposure to cosmic radiation has been studied in crew for 35+ years, with human health and cancer risk being the main focus. However, space radiation could also affect both the resident microorganisms aboard the ISS and the normal, healthy astronaut microbiomes that are of direct concern for crew health. A retrospective review of over 250 publications was accomplished looking at the impact of cumulative ionizing radiation doses lower than 3 Gy (chronic or acute) on microbial populations. Elevated CO2. The health risk involved with elevated atmospheric CO2 in spacecraft, primarily focusing on human toxicological risks, is understudied. The current Spaceflight Maximum Allowance Concentration for 24-hour average CO2 is 0.4% (3 mm Hg), which is significantly higher than terrestrial levels (0.04%). Whether these elevated ambient CO2 levels aboard spacecraft influence the diversity and phenotypic responses of the resident microbial communities from both the spacecraft environment (air, surface, water) and crew members (gut, nasal,skin microbiomes) is not known. A retrospective review was accomplished looking at the impact of chronic CO2 exposure up to 0.7% (5 mm Hg) for up to 6 months and acute exposure up to 2.6% (20 mm Hg) for up to 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBIOME OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT The microbiome of the built spacecraft environment has been sampled consistently over the course of human spaceflight and significant advancements have been made in identifying microbial populations on the ISS. The dominant source of microbes on spacecraft surfaces are human-derived. Once in the spacecraft built environment,the extreme environment selects for features that enhance survival. While efforts to understand potential antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity of ISS isolates is robust, there is little to no understanding of which spaceflight environmental stressors, to include ionizing radiation or elevated CO2, drive the evolutionary trajectory of spacecraft-associated microbial populations. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBE-HOST INTERACTIONS The host-microbiome field has emerged as an important factor in human health on Earth as well in spaceflight. The field is struggling with the complexity of the system under investigation as there is substantial taxonomic and functional heterogeneity in these communities, making it difficult to establish clear stimulus-response dynamics.Taxonomic characterization is the norm; however, the functional role of each community member is key to linking environmental perturbations to potential dysbiosis. For both ionizing radiation and elevated CO2, the likely target of the perturbation is the host tissue, not the microbes themselves.. Any resulting changes to the microbial community composition and/or function is likely a result of adapting to those changes in the host physiology. RECOMMENDATIONS Emphasize functional characterization as opposed to taxonomic characterization of microbial communities.Increase the number of investigations using chronic, spaceflight-relevant doses of ionizing radiation. MoBE studies should move away from observational studies towards predictive modeling of community dynamics. Continue to develop scale-down models, such as tissues-on-a-chip & defined microbial communities. Focus on the crew response to elevated CO2 over MoBE considerations. Assess how direct contact with the hypercapnic environment affects skin microbiome dynamics.

Countermeasures↗