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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Smart connected worker edge platform for smart manufacturing: Part 1—Architecture and platform design

Abstract The challenge of sustainably producing goods and services for healthy living on a healthy planet requires simultaneous consideration of economic, societal, and environmental dimensions in manufacturing. Enabling technology for data driven manufacturing paradigms like Smart Manufacturing (a.k.a. Industry 4.0) serve as the technological backbone from which sustainable approaches to manufacturing can be implemented. Unfortunately, these technologies are typically associated with broader and deeper factory automation that is often too expensive and complex for the small and medium sized manufacturers (SMMs) that comprise the majority of manufacturing business in the USA and for whom their most valuable asset are the people whose jobs automation while replace. This paper describes an edge intelligent platform to integrate internet‐of‐things technologies with computing hardware, software, computational workflows for machine learning, and data ingestion, enabling SMMs to transition into smart manufacturing paradigms by leveraging the intelligence of their people. The platform leverages consumer grade electronics and sensors (affordable and portable), customized software with open source software packages (accessible), and existing communication network infrastructures (scalable). The software systems are implemented via Kubernetes orchestration of Docker containerization to ensure scalability and programmability. The platform is adaptive via computational workflow engines that produce information from data by processing with low‐cost edge computing devices while efficiently accessing resources of cloud servers as needed. The proposed edge platform connects workers to technological resources that provide computational intelligence (i.e., silicon‐based sensing and computation for data collection and contextualization) to enable decision making at the edge of advanced manufacturing.

Kim, Yoon G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Encoding Multilayer Complexity in Anti‐Counterfeiting Heterometallic MOF‐Based Optical Tags

Abstract Optical tags provide a way to quickly and unambiguously identify valuable assets. Current tag fluorophore options lack the tunability to allow combined methods of encoding in a single material. Herein we report a design strategy to encode multilayer complexity in a family of heterometallic rare‐earth metal–organic frameworks based on highly connected nonanuclear clusters. To impart both intricacy and security, a synergistic approach was implemented resulting in both overt (visible) and covert (near‐infrared, NIR) properties, with concomitant multi‐emissive spectra and tunable luminescence lifetimes. Tag authentication is validated with a variety of orthogonal detection methodologies. Importantly, the effect induced by subtle compositional changes on intermetallic energy transfer, and thus on the resulting photophysical properties, is demonstrated. This strategy can be widely implemented to create a large library of highly complex, difficult‐to‐counterfeit optical tags.

Deneff, Jacob I.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Encoding Multilayer Complexity in Anti-Counterfeiting Heterometallic MOF-based Optical Tags

Optical tags provide a way to quickly and unambiguously identify valuable assets. Current tag fluorophore options lack the tunability to allow combined methods of encoding in a single material. Here we report a design strategy to encode multilayer complexity in a family of heterometallic rare-earth metal-organic frameworks based on highly connected nonanuclear clusters. To impart both intricacy and security, a synergistic approach was implemented resulting in both overt (visible) and covert (near infrared, NIR) properties, with concomitant multi-emissive spectra and tunable luminescence lifetimes. Tag authentication is validated with a variety of orthogonal detection methodologies. Importantly, the effect induced by subtle compositional changes on intermetallic energy transfer, and thus on the resulting photophysical properties, is demonstrated. This strategy can be widely implemented to create a large library of highly complex, difficult to counterfeit optical tags.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modelling Development in Radical (Co)Polymerization of Multivinyl Monomers

Radical polymerization (RP) of multivinyl monomers (MVMs) provides a facile solution for manipulating polymer topology and has received increasing attention due to their industrial and academic significance. Continuous efforts have been made to understand their mechanism, which is the key to regulating materials structure. Modelling techniques have become a powerful tool that can provide detailed information on polymerization kinetics which is inaccessible by experiments. Many publications have reported the combination of experiments and modelling for free radical polymerization (FRP) and reversible-deactivation radical polymerizations (RDRP) of MVMs. Herein, a minireview is presented for the most important modelling techniques and their applications in FRP/RDRP of MVMs. This review hopes to illustrate that the combination of modelling and wet experiments can be a great asset to polymer researchers and inspire new thinking for the future MVMs experiment optimization and product design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios toward Global Decarbonization: Role of Disruptive Technologies

To totally decarbonize global electrical systems using photovoltaics (PVs) in the 2050–2060 decade, the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV. This article models and explores how a PV manufacturing ramp‐up trajectory toward this goal can be achieved while assuming that investors continue to make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets and therefore protecting their return on investment. The model effectively exploits experience curve benefits in both the scaling of the manufacturing process and continued progress in product design technologies. The scale‐up challenge is amplified because trajectories that achieve this goal require an unprecedented ramp‐up of production capacity over just two decades, followed by relatively modest demand to maintain the installed base and support continued population growth. It is demonstrated that sustainable ramp‐up of manufacturing is indeed possible and shown that the deployment of the requisite manufacturing capacity can be accelerated and accomplished at lower total capital cost by the introduction of disruptive technologies that have lower capital intensity, embedded energy, or higher efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Review of Technical Photovoltaic Key Performance Indicators and the Importance of Data Quality Routines

Technical key performance indicators (KPIs) are important metrics used to assess and quantitatively summarize various aspects of photovoltaic (PV) systems, including long-term performance, economic viability, and carbon footprint. Herein, a group of experts of the International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme Task 13 collect and describ the most important technical KPIs used in the industry. Thereby, a set of best practices for reliably handling PV system data is presented and the impact of data quality and climatic variability on KPI calculation is investigated. Further, the effective use of technical KPIs allows triggering data-driven and informed decisions to optimize PV systems and providing a comprehensive overview of how PV systems operate across different conditions and climates. With the worldwide growth of the PV industry, more companies operate/own PV systems in different regions, where the climatic and seasonal profiles differ. This requires context-aware evaluation of KPIs, or the judicious application of multiple KPIs, to ensure that each asset is evaluated correctly. Beyond that, there is untapped potential in the utilization of KPIs through geospatial mapping and extrapolation of fleet KPIs. This study demonstrates that the uncertainty in KPI estimation is not well understood and depends on data quality, climatic variability, and system configuration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards Automated Assessment of Vulnerability Exposures in Security Operations

Current approaches for risk analysis of software vulnerabilities using manual assessment and numeric scoring do not complete fast enough to keep pace with the maintenance work rate to patch and mitigate the vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new approach to modeling software vulnerability risk in the context of the network environment and firewall configuration. In the approach, vulnerability features are automatically matched up with networking, target asset, and adversary features to determine whether adversaries can exploit a vulnerability. The ability of adversaries to reach a vulnerability is modeled by automatically identifying the network services associated with vulnerabilities through a pipeline of machine learning and natural language processing and automatically analyzing network reachability. Our results show that the pipeline can identify network services accurately. We also find that only a small number of vulnerabilities pose real risks to a system. However, if left unmitigated, adversarial reach to vulnerabilities may extend to nullify the effect of firewall countermeasures.

Huff, Philip↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low-diffusion Xe-He gas mixtures for rare-event detection: electroluminescence yield

High pressure xenon Time Projection Chambers (TPC) based on secondary scintillation (electroluminescence) signal amplification are being proposed for rare event detection such as directional dark matter, double electron capture and double beta decay detection. The discrimination of the rare event through the topological signature of primary ionisation trails is a major asset for this type of TPC when compared to single liquid or double-phase TPCs, limited mainly by the high electron diffusion in pure xenon. Helium admixtures with xenon can be an attractive solution to reduce the electron diffusion significantly, improving the discrimination efficiency of these optical TPCs. We have measured the electroluminescence (EL) yield of Xe-He mixtures, in the range of 0 to 30% He and demonstrated the small impact on the EL yield of the addition of helium to pure xenon. For a typical reduced electric field of 2.5 kV/cm/bar in the scintillation region, the EL yield is lowered by ~ 2%, 3%, 6% and 10% for 10%, 15%, 20% and 30% of helium concentration, respectively. This decrease is less than what has been obtained from the most recent simulation framework in the literature. The impact of the addition of helium on EL statistical fluctuations is negligible, within the experimental uncertainties. The present results are an important benchmark for the simulation tools to be applied to future optical TPCs based on Xe-He mixtures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chapter Ten - Power, Buildings, and Other Critical Networks: Integrated Multisystem Operation

The electrifying transportation sector, the increasing grid interactivity of the built environment, the rapidly expanding number of devices within the Internet-of-Things, and the overall trend toward highly connected systems and interdependent networks is revolutionizing the operation of the electric power grid. While these changes are presenting grid operators with new challenges to ensure an efficient, reliable, and sustainable operation of the grid, they also enable a new suite of resources that can be utilized for assisting the grid in times of need. In this chapter, we explore how these recent changes and trends are affecting modern power systems and discuss the benefits and challenges of an increasingly electrified and interconnected world. We will observe how various critical infrastructure, that is, buildings, water and gas, transportation, and telecommunication networks are highly dependent on power network operations but, with improved coordination and control, can also provide valuable assets to the grid in times of need.

electricity markets↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 32 - Power Grid Resilience

The new energy paradigm is altering the current power grid trend from synchronous generator reliant system toward power-electronics-based distributed energy resources (DERs). The resilient operation of modern power grid is highly dependent upon cyber and physical reliable operation of DERs. Power grid resilience broadly refers to the ability of the grid to be robust to eventualities and singularities that may disrupt the continuity of reliable power flow. This could involve resilience related to the physical system but more recently, the focus on cyber resilience has been evolving rapidly especially given the burgeoning growth of distributed generation and power-electronics-based DERs under smart grid and given that such threats to reliable operation do not have to evolve localized to where the physical asset is. Commonly, in power grids dominated by DERS, control and energy management are structured at a multitime scale multilayer fashion: (i) primary control layer at microseconds time scale, (ii) secondary control layer at millisecond time scale, and (iii) tertiary control layer at seconds to minutes time scale. The cyber-related issues that may affect the power grid resilience can be introduced in through primary, secondary, and tertiary control layers. The failure of each of these control layers may impact the reliable and resilient operation of the overall network and cause widespread failures which leads to unintended blackouts. As such, this chapter focuses on cyber-related resilience issues in primary control layer, secondary control layer, tertiary control layer, wide area/utility control, and anomaly detection and resilient communication.

anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constrained Bayesian optimization of criticality experiments

The design of criticality experiments is typically an iterative process that employs a Monte Carlo transport code. The goal is to find a design that optimizes some variable, like the sensitivity of a response to a cross section, while simultaneously ensuring criticality. The high fidelity of the Monte Carlo code is a great asset, but it makes exploring the design space computationally expensive. Herein, we present how a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm can be used to efficiently design a criticality experiment. It uses Gaussian processes as a surrogate model to probe the design space and to reduce the number of code executions that are needed to find the optimum. Furthermore, we demonstrate constrained Bayesian optimization with a Pu-239/polyethylene solution system and a TEX experiment that is designed for criticality safety validation of a nuclear waste model at the Hanford Site. For both systems, a global optimum was found within 75 Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Project developer options to enhance the value of solar electricity as solar and storage penetrations increase

Increasing the penetration of photovoltaics (PV) reduces the marginal grid value of PV electricity. The declining grid value of PV with higher penetration could limit the technology's economic attractiveness and future demand. Various strategies have been proposed for preserving this value. Using a consistent framework, we analyze the net value (accounting for both cost and grid value) of more than ten strategies in the United States. Here, grid value is estimated from coincident wholesale power market prices and PV generation using observed historical prices or modeled future prices with up to 30% PV penetration. We find that established and emerging strategies designed to shift the timing of standalone PV generation at the expense of total generation—including orienting monofacial PV modules west or bifacial modules vertically—result in minor net-value benefits or penalties. Adding energy storage to such systems magnifies the net-value loss, because configurations that change the timing of PV production become redundant when the energy-shifting capabilities of storage are added. The largest net-value gains come from strategies that maximize generation (solar tracking plus oversized PV arrays) in conjunction with storage, especially at high PV penetrations. PV systems are long-lived assets. Our results suggest that efforts to promote generation-maximizing strategies today may yield increasing net-value benefits as PV and storage deployments continue to accelerate in the United States over the coming decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Utilizing commercial heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services: A review

The modern power grid faces multiple challenges due to an increase in the adoption of renewable generation, such as dynamically balancing supply and demand at different time scales. Demand side management in buildings plays a vital role in achieving this balance because buildings can provide grid services through a variety of building assets. However, the development of grid-interactive, efficient buildings is still in its infancy, and a systematic and holistic understanding of grid service delivery strategies in terms of energy efficiency, load shifting, load shedding and load modulating is still limited. This paper is a comprehensive review of the development and application of building-level control strategies for utilizing heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services. These strategies have been investigated through numerical and experimental studies. Control algorithms, such as heuristic rule-based control and model-based control, have been used to enable the automatic control delivery of grid services. The advantages and disadvantages of the strategies are summarized and discussed. Finally, research trends are also identified, which include considering predicted mean vote-based and occupant-based thermal comfort, modeling of occupant behavior, integrating power grid operations with building control, and combining different demand flexibility modes in the control design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗