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At least 847 records · Page 47

Collaboration to Enable Higher Penetrations of Solar Power Generation Using the Natural Gas Pipeline System for Energy Storage (CRADA CRD-14-00567)

This unique project explored one possible solution for photovoltaic (PV) generation to become a reliable and dispatchable energy resource similar to conventional baseload fossil fuel electricity generation. Solar power generation is a renewable resource that varies naturally from day-to-day as well as seasonally. To use solar power as a baseload generation asset requires a flexible storage system that can recover power on both a daily and seasonal basis. Converting solar power to natural gas (i.e., first to hydrogen and then to methane) and having access to utility-scale storage in the natural gas network has the potential to make solar power generation a baseload asset. This will: 1) Increase the net energy yield from solar resources by increasing the effective capacity factor and maximize the energy produced during the assets’ lifetimes. 2) Improve the economics of energy storage for solar project developers, thereby accelerating the deployment of new solar generation. 3) Reduce the impact of increasing solar penetration on congestion of the electrical transmission system by shifting power delivery in time using the gas pipeline network for long-duration storage. 4) Reduce the impact of increasing solar generation on electrical distribution system control. 5) Offer alternative revenue sources for solar power generation beyond electricity including: hydrogen (H 2 ) production for stationary fuel cells and fuel cell electric vehicles, conversion of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to methane (CH 4 ) as a direct drop-in replacement for fossil natural gas use, and transmission as high volumetrically-dense CH 4 for use in transportation, heating, power generation, chemical production or conversion back to H2 at the point of use. Additional work was added to this CRADA in modification 4 having a primary objective to characterize the performance of the electrolyzer, Southern California Gas (SoCalGas) bioreactor and balance of plant to demonstrate production of renewable natural gas (RNG) from renewable H 2 and CO 2 using single-cell, self-replicating organisms. The additional scope of work allowed researchers to ramp up gas flowrates and pressure of the system over the designed range to grow the cells and begin to show the load-following capabilities of this anaerobic gas fermentation process. These activities enabled the research team to predict system performance at much greater scales; namely 10’s of mega-watts (MWs) of electrolyzer nameplate capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling Data Flows with Network Calculus in Cyber-Physical Systems: Enabling Feature Analysis for Anomaly Detection Applications

The electric grid is becoming increasingly cyber-physical with the addition of smart technologies, new communication interfaces, and automated grid-support functions. Because of this, it is no longer sufficient to only study the physical system dynamics, but the cyber system must also be monitored as well to examine cyber-physical interactions and effects on the overall system. To address this gap for both operational and security needs, cyber-physical situational awareness is needed to monitor the system to detect any faults or malicious activity. Techniques and models to understand the physical system (the power system operation) exist, but methods to study the cyber system are needed, which can assist in understanding how the network traffic and changes to network conditions affect applications such as data analysis, intrusion detection systems (IDS), and anomaly detection. In this paper, we examine and develop models of data flows in communication networks of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) and explore how network calculus can be utilized to develop those models for CPSs, with a focus on anomaly and intrusion detection. This provides a foundation for methods to examine how changes to behavior in the CPS can be modeled and for investigating cyber effects in CPSs in anomaly detection applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100): Six-Month Progress Update [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phase-out of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040, as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). Since hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017, DOE and its national laboratories have provided Puerto Rico energy system stakeholders with tools, training, and modeling support to enable planning and operation of the electric power grid with more resilience against further disruptions. On February 2, 2022, DOE, FEMA, and six national laboratories launched the two-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) to conduct comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's energy future. The robust and objective energy analysis entails five activities, with an emphasis on power system reliability, resilience, and generation planning. This presentation provides a six-month progress update on the study, including presentation of four initial scenario frameworks defined with extensive stakeholder input.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Plutonium Oxidation State Distribution under WIPP Relevant Conditions (Rev. 2)

The oxidation state of plutonium in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) environment has been a topic of interest since the initial compliance certification application. Plutonium (Pu) was initially expected to be present primarily as Pu(IV), but since the presence of Pu(III) could not be ruled out, it was also included in performance assessment (PA) calculations. The redox of the other variant actinides, uranium (U) and neptunium (Np), are also coupled to the plutonium redox. This led to a position in performance assessment calculations that is commonly referred to as “50/50”. In which half of the PA realizations assume solubility is dominated by the low oxidation state [U(IV), Np(IV), Pu(III)] and the other half assume solubility is dominated by the higher oxidation state [U(VI), Np(V), Pu(IV)]. Recently, a joint group of WIPP project participants from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the Department of Energy’s Carlsbad Field Office (DOE-CBFO) agreed on a new path forward for the oxidation state model in PA which will decouple the redox active actinides and will instead consider their redox as a function of E h . This will take the current binary approach and turn it into a system with four possible redox states.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Security-Constrained Unit Commitment for Electricity Market: Modeling, Solution Methods, and Future Challenges

This paper summarizes the technical activities of the IEEE Task Force on Solving Large Scale Optimization Problems in Electricity Market and Power System Applications. This Task Force was established by the IEEE Technology and Innovation Subcommittee to first review the state-of-the-art of the security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) business model, its mathematical formulation, and solution techniques in solving electricity market clearing problems. The Task Force then investigated the emerging challenges of future market clearing problems and presented efforts in building benchmark mathematical and business models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Earthquake detection in a simulated lunar regolith using distributed acoustic sensing

Current models of inner lunar geology have largely been inferred from the seismic experiments and observations performed during the Apollo missions that comprised a relatively small number of seismic instruments. Refining constraints on fundamental lunar relationships such as crust-mantle and mantle-core boundaries in the future will require seismic arrays spanning larger epicentral distances. A promising technology for installing dense seismic arrays with minimal human effort is distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), an approach that allows a single length of fiber optic cable to act as hundreds or thousands of sensors when coupled with a DAS interrogator. While terrestrial uses of DAS technology for seismic monitoring rely on burying the cable to maximize fidelity of seismic signal transmission to the fiber, digging meters of trench to bury optical fiber on lunar or planetary surfaces is logistically infeasible. To evaluate DAS signal attenuation due to surface deployment of cable in lunar regolith, we completed earthquake detection analyses that evaluated the sensitivity of an optic-fiber DAS system to seismic signals at different burial depths. We deployed a single-mode fiber in a 10-m open-bottom wooden box filled with a lunar regolith simulant (LRS) with fiber buried at different depths within the LRS and recorded signals for four regional and local earthquakes. The results were used to identify and evaluate signal attenuation in surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber in the LRS. Burial depth responses to active-source signals were also evaluated similar to previous studies characterizing DAS sensitivity of surface-deployed fiber. Atmospheric noise was minimal as the cable was deployed in an indoor environment; however, where observed, atmospheric and anthropogenic noise was filtered out using the same bandpass filtering used to identify earthquake events. We found that signal attenuation of the surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber was relatively high in active-source experiments but was not consistently observed in earthquake signals. That burial depth is not highly correlated to attenuation of the observed earthquake signals indicates that in a noise-limited environment, placing DAS-interrogated fiber directly at the regolith surface may be a promising deployment strategy to consider for sensing remote seismic signals during lunar exploration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Distributed quantum approximate optimization algorithm on a quantum-centric supercomputing architecture

Quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has shown promise in solving combinatorial optimization problems by providing quantum speedup on near-term gate-based quantum computing systems. However, QAOA faces challenges for high-dimensional problems due to the large number of qubits required and the complexity of deep circuits, limiting its scalability for real-world applications. In this study, we present a distributed QAOA (DQAOA), which leverages distributed computing strategies to decompose a large computational workload into smaller tasks that require fewer qubits and shallower circuits than are necessary to solve the original problem. These sub-problems are processed using a combination of high-performance and quantum computing resources. The global solution is iteratively updated by aggregating sub-solutions, allowing convergence toward the optimal solution. We demonstrate that DQAOA can handle considerably large-scale optimization problems (e.g., 1000-bit problem), achieving a high solution quality and short time-to-solution, outperforming existing strategies. Furthermore, we realize DQAOA on a quantum-centric supercomputing architecture, paving the way for practical applications of gate-based quantum computers in real-world optimization tasks. To extend DQAOA’s applicability to materials science, we further develop an active learning algorithm integrated with our DQAOA (AL-DQAOA), which involves machine learning, DQAOA, and active data production in an iterative loop. We successfully optimize photonic structures using AL-DQAOA, indicating that solving real-world optimization problems using gate-based quantum computing is feasible. We expect the proposed DQAOA to be applicable to a wide range of optimization problems and AL-DQAOA to find broader applications in material design.

Kim, Seongmin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000159063004)↗

Metallofullerene photoswitches driven by photoinduced fullerene-to-metal electron transfer

We report on the discovery and detailed exploration of the unconventional photo-switching mechanism in metallofullerenes, in which the energy of the photon absorbed by the carbon cage π-system is transformed to mechanical motion of the endohedral cluster accompanied by accumulation of spin density on the metal atoms. Comprehensive photophysical and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) studies augmented by theoretical modelling are performed to address the phenomenon of the light-induced photo-switching and triplet state spin dynamics in a series of Y x Sc 3-x N@C 80 (x = 0–3) nitride clusterfullerenes. Variable temperature and time-resolved photoluminescence studies revealed a strong dependence of their photophysical properties on the number of Sc atoms in the cluster. All molecules in the series exhibit temperature-dependent luminescence assigned to the near-infrared thermally-activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) and phosphorescence. The emission wavelengths and Stokes shift increase systematically with the number of Sc atoms in the endohedral cluster, whereas the triplet state lifetime and S 1 –T 1 gap decrease in this row. For Sc 3 N@C 80 , we also applied photoelectron spectroscopy to obtain the triplet state energy as well as the electron affinity. Spin distribution and dynamics in the triplet states are then studied by light-induced pulsed EPR and ENDOR spectroscopies. The spin–lattice relaxation times and triplet state lifetimes are determined from the temporal evolution of the electron spin echo after the laser pulse. Well resolved ENDOR spectra of triplets with a rich structure caused by the hyperfine and quadrupolar interactions with 14 N, 45 Sc, and 89 Y nuclear spins are obtained. The systematic increase of the metal contribution to the triplet spin density from Y 3 N to Sc 3 N found in the ENDOR study points to a substantial fullerene-to-metal charge transfer in the excited state. These experimental results are rationalized with the help of ground-state and time-dependent DFT calculations, which revealed a substantial variation of the endohedral cluster position in the photoexcited states driven by the predisposition of Sc atoms to maximize their spin population.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Revised International Standard for Gearboxes in Wind Turbine Systems

Gearbox and wind turbine design and application standards have contributed significantly to improvements in reliability over the past two decades. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61400-4 standard of wind turbine gearbox design is currently being revised by a joint working group (JWG) of experts in IEC TC 88 (wind energy) and International Organization for Standardization (ISO) TC60 (gears) to further that effort. Experts from ISO TC4 (rolling bearings) and ISO TC28 (lubricants) have actively participated. This revision has implemented lessons learned from industry use of edition 1 since its publication in 2012. The main document, IEC 61400-4, was pared down to essential design requirements and application-specific recommendations along with a design verification framework. The JWG leveraged concurrent development of other standards, such as IEC 61400-8 on wind turbine structures, to replace edition 1 content. These are described along with how this works with the IEC Renewable Energy certification scheme for wind turbines (IECRE-WE). The JWG recognized the interest in maintaining informative parts of edition 1 including annexes on wind turbine architecture and loads, bearing and gear arrangements, bearing selection, lubrication system descriptions and lubricant performance recommendations. This information was retained in two technical reports: IEC/TR 61400-4-2 Lubrication and IEC/TR 61400-4-3 Explanatory Notes. Additionally, a technical specification, IEC/TS 61400-4-1, was drafted to provide a reliability calculation method for comparing different design options or conditions. Salient elements of these documents are described. All four documents were recently distributed for IEC/ISO review, ballot, and comment. Publication is expected in 2023.

gearbox↗

A Revised International Standard for Gearboxes in Wind Turbine Systems: Preprint

Gearbox and wind turbine design and application standards have contributed significantly to improvements in reliability over the past two decades. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61400-4 standard of wind turbine gearbox design is currently being revised by a joint working group (JWG) of experts in IEC TC 88 (wind energy) and International Organization for Standardization (ISO) TC60 (gears) to further that effort. Experts from ISO TC4 (rolling bearings) and ISO TC28 (lubricants) have actively participated. This revision has implemented lessons learned from industry use of edition 1 since its publication in 2012. The main document, IEC 61400-4, was pared down to essential design requirements and application-specific recommendations along with a design verification framework. The JWG leveraged concurrent development of other standards, such as IEC 61400-8 on wind turbine structures, to replace edition 1 content. These are described along with how this works with the IEC Renewable Energy certification scheme for wind turbines (IECRE-WE). The JWG recognized the interest in maintaining informative parts of edition 1 including annexes on wind turbine architecture and loads, bearing and gear arrangements, bearing selection, lubrication system descriptions and lubricant performance recommendations. This information was retained in two technical reports: IEC/TR 61400-4-2 Lubrication and IEC/TR 61400-4-3 Explanatory Notes. Additionally, a technical specification, IEC/TS 61400-4-1, was drafted to provide a reliability calculation method for comparing different design options or conditions. Salient elements of these documents are described. All four documents were recently distributed for IEC/ISO review, ballot, and comment. Publication is expected in 2023.

ENGINEERING,WIND ENERGY↗

Reversible solid oxide cells: Early performance and microstructural evolution during electrolysis and switched mode operation

Incorporating more renewables into our energy mix will require a diversity of technological solutions. Reversible solid oxide cell systems (RSOCs) operating reversibly between fuel cell and electrolysis modes with high round-trip efficiencies offer one such solution. However, questions remain about the stability of the oxygen and fuel electrodes under reversible operation. Here, in this study, single cells with the configuration Ni-YSZ|YSZ|GDC10|NNO-NDC50|NNO are operated by reversible cycling under potentiostatic conditions. Test conditions are chosen to be representative of average stack conditions that are likely to be encountered during operation of a stack constructed of such cells. The results of reversible cycling over 500 h (21 cycles) are compared with operating the cells under potentiostatic conditions in the electrolysis-only mode (i.e., without cycling). Voltage-current density (DC), AC complex impedance spectroscopy, distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) indicate excellent reversibility and stability of the neodymium nickelate-based oxygen electrodes in both electrolysis and reversible cycling modes. Degradation behavior is attributed to the loss and coarsening of connected Ni particles in the fuel electrode, particularly in the active layer. However, reversible operation mitigates this degradation compared to operation in the electrolysis-only (SOEC-only) mode.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Characterizing Ice Nucleating Particles Over the Southern Ocean Using Simultaneous Aircraft and Ship Observations

Abstract Supercooled liquid clouds are ubiquitous over the Southern Ocean (SO), even to temperatures below −20°C, and comprise a large fraction of the marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds. Earth system models and reanalysis products have struggled to reproduce the observed cloud phase distribution and occurrence of cloud ice in the region. Recent simulations found the microphysical representation of ice nucleation and growth has a large impact on these properties, however, measurements of SO ice nucleating particles (INPs) to validate simulations are sparse. This study presents measurements of INPs from simultaneous aircraft and ship campaigns conducted over the SO in austral summer 2018, which include the first in situ observations in and above cloud in the region. Our results confirm recent observations that INP concentrations are uniformly lower than measurements made in the late 1960s. While INP concentrations below and above cloud are similar, higher ice nucleation efficiency above cloud supports model simulations that the dominant INP composition varies with height. Model parameterizations based solely on aerosol properties capture the mean relationship between INP concentration and temperature but not the observed variability, which is likely related to the only modest correlations observed between INPs and environmental or aerosol metrics. Including wind speed in addition to activation temperature in a marine INP parameterization reduces bias but does not explain the large range of observed INP concentrations. Direct and indirect inference of marine INP size suggests MBL INPs, at least during Austral summer, are dominated by particles with diameters smaller than 500 nm.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

New Virtual Test Bed Capabilities: Virtual DOME Model and New Updates to Repository

The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy National Reactor Innovation Center accelerates the deployment of novel reactor concepts by establishing both physical and virtual spaces for building and testing various components, systems, and complete pilot plants. The Virtual Test Bed represents the virtual arm of the National Reactor Innovation Center and is a joint effort with the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program. The Virtual Test Bed mission is to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactors by facilitating the adoption of cutting-edge DOE advanced modeling and simulation tools to design, evaluate, and license reactors. This is primarily achieved by storing example challenge problems in an externally available repository and by developing models to fill the M&S gaps needed for potential demonstrators. Activities conducted this fiscal year focused on developing of a Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments shield model to help accelerate the confirmatory analysis required for the reactor demonstration. This model and workflow will allow developers to leverage advanced modeling and simulation tools to ensure their reactor demonstration concept will meet dose requirements and that the surrounding shield will stay within concrete temperature limits during steady-state and transient operation conditions. An initial model has been developed to evaluate the temperature distribution in the concrete shield during steady-state operation, including neutron and gamma heating effects. Various modeling strategies have been examined to understand their applicability and limitations with different reactor designs to make the workflow as reactor-agnostic as possible and computationally effective to maximize its usability. In addition to describing the Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments shield model and associated results, this report summarizes other accomplishments regarding repository maintenance and improvement and new external models hosted on the repository.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The generation of a multiphase medium in ‘Splash’ bridge systems: towards an understanding of star formation suppression in turbulent galaxy systems

ABSTRACT Cloud–cloud collisions in splash bridges produced in gas-rich disc galaxy collisions offer a brief but interesting environment to study the effects of shocks and turbulence on star formation rates in the diffuse intergalactic medium, far from the significant feedback effects of massive star formation and active galactic nucleus. Expanding on our earlier work, we describe simulated collisions between counter-rotating disc galaxies of relatively similar mass, focusing on the thermal and kinematic effects of relative inclination and disc offset at the closest approach. This includes essential heating and cooling signatures, which go some way towards explaining the luminous power in H$_2$ and [C ii] emission in the Taffy bridge, as well as providing a partial explanation of the turbulent nature of the recently observed compact CO-emitting clouds observed in Taffy by the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). The models show counter-rotating disc collisions result in swirling, shearing kinematics for the gas in much of the post-collision bridge. Gas with little specific angular momentum due to collisions between counter-rotating streams accumulates near the centre of mass. The disturbances and mixing in the bridge drive continuing cloud collisions, differential shock heating, and cooling throughout. A wide range of relative gas phases and line-of-sight velocity distributions are found in the bridges, depending sensitively on initial disc orientations, and the resulting variety of cloud collision histories. Most cloud collisions can occur promptly or persist for quite a long duration. Cold and hot phases can largely overlap throughout the bridge or can be separated into different parts of the bridge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utilization of Novel (KNbO 3 ) 1− x (Ba 2 FeNbO 6 ) x ( x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3) Solid Solutions for Efficient Photo‐Assisted Fenton Degradation of Methylene Blue Dye

Novel (KNbO 3 ) 1− x (Ba 2 FeNbO 6 ) x ( x = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3) solid solutions corresponding to K 0.82 Ba 0.18 Fe 0.09 Nb 0.91 O 3 , K 0.64 Ba 0.36 Fe 0.18 Nb 0.82 O 3 , and K 0.46 Ba 0.54 Fe 0.27 Nb 0.73 O 3 compounds have been synthesized via molten salt method. X‐ray diffraction confirms the formation of solid solutions, while transmission electron microscopy combined with energy‐dispersive spectroscopy results demonstrates a homogeneous distribution of elements. The obtained solid solutions crystallized in a cubic crystal structure, whereas the parent KNbO 3 possesses an orthorhombic structure. The wide bandgap semiconductor KNbO 3 transformed into a visible‐light‐active material, with its bandgap energy reduced from 3.56 eV to ≈2.4 eV. The substitution of K in KNbO 3 with Ba is responsible for structural modification from orthorhombic to cubic symmetry, whereas both structural modification and the substitution of Nb with Fe correlated with optical properties. The photocatalytic activities of all obtained solid solutions are improved compared with the parent KNbO 3 and Ba 2 FeNbO 6 compounds for photocatalytic degradation of methylene blue (MB) dye. Among the series of solid solutions, K 0.82 Ba 0.18 Fe 0.09 Nb 0.91 O 3 photocatalysts show the highest MB removal efficiency owing to its relatively higher surface area, suppressed charge carrier recombination, and more negative conduction band edge. Moreover, K 0.82 Ba 0.18 Fe 0.09 Nb 0.91 O 3 photocatalyst (0.1 g) combined with hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) to form a novel photo‐Fenton system, achieving almost complete degradation of 100 mL of 10 mg L −1 MB dye in 30 min.

Avcıoğlu, Celal [Technische Universität Berlin, Fa↗

Achieving Ultra-High Selectivity to Hydrogen Production from Formic Acid on Pd–Ag Alloys

Palladium-silver based alloy catalysts have a great potential for CO-free hydrogen production from formic acid for fuel cell applications. However, the structural factors affecting the selectivity of formic acid decomposition is still debated. Herein, the decomposition pathways of formic acid on Pd-Ag alloys with different atomic configurations have been investigated to identify the alloy structures yielding high H 2 selectively. Several Pd x Ag 1-x surface alloys with various compositions were generated on a Pd(111) single crystal; their atomic distribution and electronic structure were determined by a combination of infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy (IRAS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and density functional theory (DFT). It was established that the Ag atoms with Pd neighbors are electronically altered, and the degree of alteration correlates with the number of nearest Pd. Temperature programmed reaction spectroscopy (TPRS) and DFT demonstrated that the electronically altered Ag domains create a new reaction pathway that selectively dehydrogenates formic acid. In contrast, Pd monomers surrounded by Ag are demonstrated to have a similar reactivity compared to pristine Pd(111), yielding CO and H 2 O in addition to the dehydrogenation products. Furthermore, they bind to the produced CO weaker than pristine Pd, demonstrating an enhancement in resistance to CO poisoning. This work therefore shows that surface Ag domains modified by interaction with subsurface Pd are the key active sites for selective decomposition of formic acid, while surface Pd atoms are detrimental for selectivity. Hence the decomposition pathways can be tailored for CO-free H 2 production on Pd-Ag alloy systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chaotic Dynamics Driven by Particle-Core Interactions

High-intensity beams in modern linacs are frequently encircled by diffuse halos, which drive sustained particle losses and result in gradual degradation of accelerating structures. In large part, the growth of halos is facilitated by internal space-charge forces within the beams, and detailed characterization of this process constitutes an active area of ongoing research. A partial understanding of dynamics that ensue within space-charge dominated beams is presented by the particle-core interaction paradigm – a mathematical model wherein single particle dynamics, subject to the collective potential of the core, are treated as a proxy for the broader behavior of the beam. In this work, we investigate the conditions for the onset of large-scale chaos within the framework of this model, and demonstrate that the propensity towards stochastic evolution is strongly dependent upon the charge distribution of the beam. In particular, we show that while particle motion within a uniformly charged beam is dominantly regular, rapid deterministic chaos readily arises within space-charge dominated Gaussian beams. Importantly, we find that for sufficiently high values of the beam’s space charge and beam pulsation amplitude, enhanced chaotic mixing between the core and the halo can lead to an enhanced radial diffusion of charged particles. We explain our results from analytic grounds by demonstrating that chaotic motion is driven by the intersection of two principal resonances of the system, and derive the relevant overlap conditions. Additionally, our analysis illuminates a close connection between the mathematical formulation of the particle-core interaction model and the Andoyer family of integrable Hamiltonians

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗