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NASA NTRS2016

The Viability of Trajectory Analysis for Diagnosing Dynamical and Chemical Influences on Ozone Concentrations in the UTLS

The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing the interplay between chemistry and dynamics is investigated by comparing ozone mixing ratios modelled using air-parcel pathways to values observed along flight tracks during ATTREX (Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment). Trajectories are initiated at the locations of ozone observations and tracked backward in time to their sources at termini of backward trajectories. The modelled values of ozone utilize 3-dimensional analysis fields from WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) (a chemical-climate model with dynamical fields nudged towards MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research Applications) reanalysis) and ERA-interim (product of ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to determine source mixing ratios with chemical production and loss terms derived from the ozone chemistry used in WACCM. A statistical base of modelled ozone is constructed with 6 trajectory platforms (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic forced by ERA-interim and MERRA), two chemical models (WACCM chemistry and no chemistry), and 4 trajectory lengths (5, 10, 20, and 30 days). Linear regression is employed to separate systematic errors from random errors and to characterize the impact of source mixing ratios, path length, vertical motion, and chemistry on modelled ozone errors. Errors in the analysis ozone fields are large, if not dominant, contributors to model error. Random errors are particularly large for point-by-point comparisons, however averaging over 800 km (75 minutes) flight segments substantially reduces random error and exposes systematic errors. Of the two analysis ozone data sets, WACCM, which incorporates detailed chemistry, provides the smaller systematic errors while ERA-interim, which has crude chemistry but assimilates observational data, has the smaller random errors. Of the different trajectory platforms, adiabatic calculations produce the smaller random errors (irrespective of the use of chemistry) but both vertical motion and chemistry are required to optimally reduce systematic errors. These results suggest that meaningful analysis of dynamical and chemical interactions that control ozone mixing ratios are viable on spatial scales larger than a few reanalysis grid spaces, that errors in the analyzed ozone data sets are large but not prohibitively so, and that vertical velocities and heating rates from reanalysis data, while problematic, contain useful information [on the ozone concentrations in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere)].

ozone↗

NASA NTRS2008

Draft Forecasts from Real-Time Runs of Physics-Based Models - A Road to the Future

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second focus of CCMC activities is on validation and verification of space weather models, and on the transition of appropriate models to space weather forecast centers. As part of the latter activity, the CCMC develops real-time simulation systems that stress models through routine execution. A by-product of these real-time calculations is the ability to derive model products, which may be useful for space weather operators. After consultations with NOAA/SEC and with AFWA, CCMC has developed a set of tools as a first step to make real-time model output useful to forecast centers. In this presentation, we will discuss the motivation for this activity, the actions taken so far, and options for future tools from model output.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Table-Driven Control Method to Meet Continuous, Near-Real-Time Observation Requirements for the Solar X-Ray Imager

The design of the Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) presents an unusual scenario for controlling the observing sequences. The SXI is an operational instrument, designed not primarily for scientific research, but for providing "operational" data used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to forecast the near-term space weather. To this end, a sequence of images selected to cover the full dynamic range of the sun will be executed routinely. As the dynamics of the sun have differing temporal cadences, the frequency of various images will differ. These images must be routinely received at the forecast center in near real-time, 24-hours a day, with a minimum of interruptions. While these requirements clearly lead to a 'routine patrol' of images, the parameters for each do not form a static set. The dynamics of the sun will change with the I 1-year solar cycle. The performance of the imaging will vary with on-orbit conditions and time. And while the SXI is not intended as a research instrument, forecasting techniques may change with time, which in turn will further alter the imaging sequences. An additional complication is the highly restricted commanding window, and a very slow commanding rate. To fulfill these requirements, the SXI was designed to utilize a table-driven approach. Sequences are defined using structured loops, with nested repetitions and delays. These sequences reference combinations of imaging parameters which in turn reference tables of parameters than can be loaded by ground commands. Multiple sequences can be built and stored in preparation for execution when determined appropriate by the NOAA forecasters. The result is an approach that can be used to provide a flexible, yet autonomous SXI capable of meeting both arbitrary forecasting requirements, and operating within the commanding constraints.

Wallace, Shawn↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Transition of NASA EOS Datasets to WFO Operations: A Model for Future Technology Transfer

The collocation of a National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office with atmospheric scientists from NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama has afforded a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. Specifically, the NWS office in Huntsville has interacted closely with research scientists within the SPORT (Short-term Prediction and Research and Transition) Center at MSFC. One significant technology transfer that has reaped dividends is the transition of unique NASA EOS polar orbiting datasets into NWS field operations. NWS forecasters primarily rely on the AWIPS (Advanced Weather Information and Processing System) decision support system for their day to day forecast and warning decision making. Unfortunately, the transition of data from operational polar orbiters or low inclination orbiting satellites into AWIPS has been relatively slow due to a variety of reasons. The ability to integrate these high resolution NASA datasets into operations has yielded several benefits. The MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer ) instrument flying on the Aqua and Terra satellites provides a broad spectrum of multispectral observations at resolutions as fine as 250m. Forecasters routinely utilize these datasets to locate fine lines, boundaries, smoke plumes, locations of fog or haze fields, and other mesoscale features. In addition, these important datasets have been transitioned to other WFOs for a variety of local uses. For instance, WFO Great Falls Montana utilizes the MODIS snow cover product for hydrologic planning purposes while several coastal offices utilize the output from the MODIS and AMSR-E instruments to supplement observations in the data sparse regions of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. In the short term, these datasets have benefited local WFOs in a variety of ways. In the longer term, the process by which these unique datasets were successfully transitioned to operations will benefit the planning and implementation of products and datasets derived from both NPP and NPOESS. This presentation will provide a brief overview of current WFO usage of satellite data, the transition of datasets between SPORT and the N W S , and lessons learned for future transition efforts.

Darden, C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Meteorological support for space operations: Review and recommendations

The current meteorological support provided to NASA by NOAA, Air Weather Service, and other contractors is reviewed and suggestions are offered for its improvement. These recommendations include improvement in NASA's internal management organizational structure that would accommodate continued improvement in operational weather support, installation of new observing systems, improvement in analysis and forecasting procedures, and the establishment of an Applied Research and Forecasting Facility.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1998

Physical Mechanisms Controlling Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor as Revealed by MLS Data from UARS

The seasonal changes of the upper tropospheric humidity are studied with the water vapor data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, and the winds and vertical velocity data obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Using the same algorithm for vertical transport as that used for horizontal transport (Zhu and Newell, 1998), we find that the moisture in the tropical upper troposphere may be increased mainly by intensified local convection in a small portion, less than 10%, of the whole area between 40 deg S to 40 deg N. The contribution of large scale background circulations and divergence of horizontal transport is relatively small in these regions. These dynamic processes cannot be revealed by the traditional analyses of moisture fluxes. The negative feedback suggested by Lindzen (1990) also exists, if enhanced convection is concentrated in the tropics, but is apparently not the dominant process in the moisture budget.

Newell, Reginald E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Factors Controlling Upper-Troposphere Water Vapor

The seasonal changes of the upper-tropospheric humidity are studied with the water vapor data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite and the winds and vertical velocity data obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Using the same algorithm for vertical transport as that used for horizontal transport (by Zhu and Newell), the authors find that the moisture in the tropical upper troposphere may be increased mainly by intensified local convection in a small portion, less than 10%, of the whole area between 40 degrees S and 40 degrees N. The contribution of large-scale background circulations and divergence of horizontal transport is relatively small in these regions. These dynamic processes cannot be revealed by the traditional analyses of moisture fluxes. The negative response suggested by Lindzen, with enhanced convection in the Tropics being accompanied by subsidence drying in the subtropics, also exists, but the latter does not apparently dominate in the moisture budget.

Zhu, Yong↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather Models, Tools and Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The presentation will demonstrate the rapid progress towards development the system allowing using products derived from space weather models in applications associated with National Space Weather needs. The adaptable Integrated Space Weather Analysis (ISWA) System developed at CCMC for NASA-relevant space weather information combines forecasts based on advanced space weather models hosted at CCMC with concurrent space environment information. The system is also enabling post-impact analysis and flexible dissemination of space weather information.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

From LIMS to OMPS-LP: Limb Ozone Observations for Future Reanalyses

High vertical resolution and accuracy of ozone data from satellite-borne limb sounders has made them an invaluable tool in scientific studies of the middle and upper atmosphere. However, it was not until recently that these measurements were successfully incorporated in atmospheric reanalyses: of the major multidecadal reanalyses only ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts') ERA (ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim/ERA5 and NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2) use limb ozone data. Validation and comparison studies have demonstrated that the addition of observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on EOS (Earth Observing System) Aura greatly improved the quality of ozone fields in MERRA-2 making these assimilated data sets useful for scientific research. In this presentation, we will show the results of test experiments assimilating retrieved ozone from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS, 1978/1979) and Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP, 2012 to present). Our approach builds on the established assimilation methodology used for MLS in MERRA-2 and, in the case of OMPS-LP, extends the excellent record of MLS ozone assimilation into the post-EOS era in Earth observations. We will show case studies, discuss comparisons of the new experiments with MERRA-2, strategies for bias correction and the potential for combined assimilation of multiple limb ozone data types in future reanalyses for studies of multidecadal stratospheric ozone changes including trends.

Wargan, K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2004

MODIS Data in AWIPS: A Precursor of NPOESS and GOES-R Capabilities

MODIS data from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites are being sent to several NWS Forecast Offices in real time to assist in the preparation of short-term weather forecasts. The MODIS imagery, in channels similar to those of the planned GOES-R instrument, is reformatted, sectorized, and ingested directly in Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). A number of products derived from the imagery are available in near real-time as well. This transition activity, from research to operations, serves to prepare forecasters for the next generation satellite observing capabilities through real-time, hands on applications to their forecast problems. The presentation will provide examples of this transition activity and a preliminary assessment on the utility of several of the MODIS products for improving short-term forecasts.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1988

Research Reports: 1988 NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program

The basic objectives are to further the professional knowledge of qualified engineering and science faculty members; to stimulate an exchange of ideas between participants and NASA: to enrich and refresh the research and teaching activities of the participants' institutions; and to contribute to the research objectives of the NASA centers. Topics addressed include: cryogenics; thunderstorm simulation; computer techniques; computer assisted instruction; system analysis weather forecasting; rocket engine design; crystal growth; control systems design; turbine pumps for the Space Shuttle Main engine; electron mobility; heat transfer predictions; rotor dynamics; mathematical models; computational fluid dynamics; and structural analysis.

Freeman, L. Michael↗

NASA NTRS2011

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Thermodynamic Hyperspectral Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO). As a part of the transition to operations process, SPoRT attempts to identify possible limitations in satellite observations and provide operational forecasters a product that will result in the most impact on their forecasts. One operational forecast challenge that some NWS offices face, is forecasting convection in data-void regions such as large bodies of water. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. This paper will demonstrate an approach to assimilate AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the WRF model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation component to be used as a proxy for the individual profiles.

Kozlowski, Danielle↗

NASA NTRS2007

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the second quarter of Fiscal Year 2007 (January - March 2007). Tasks reported on are: Obiective Lightning Probability Tool, Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida, Anvil Threat Corridor Forecast Tool in AWIPS, Volume Averaqed Heiqht lnteq rated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), Tower Data Skew-t Tool, and Weather Research and Forecastini (WRF) Model Sensitivity Study

Bauman, William↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Analysis of Depolarization Streaks for Anticipating Lightning in Thundersnow

Infrequent lightning events, particularly in stratiform precipitation, present a unique decision-support challenge to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and core partners. Anticipating thundersnow events, which are rare compared to warm season lightning, are especially difficult to anticipate due to slanted updrafts within the comma-head region of a mid-latitude cyclone. Researchers and operational forecasters have observed depolarization streaks in differential reflectivity (ZDR) as a result of ice crystal layers prior to thundersnow initiation. These depolarization streaks form as a result of ice crystals aligning themselves with enhancements in the electric field in stratiform precipitation and are associated with ZDR values near zero. During the 7 March 2018 winter storm, a teacher in New Jersey was struck by lightning while dismissing students and depolarization streaks were observed in weather radar observations. Therefore, it is advantageous to examine depolarization streaks in ZDR to determine whether it can be used to anticipate lightning potential in winter-time events. Multiple events will be analyzed using the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) to determine if thundersnow flashes coincide with ZDR depolarization streaks in weather radars. This study also expands on collaboration between the NWS Huntsville Forecast Office and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program to determine how depolarization streaks can be used operationally to anticipate lightning within stratiform regions. Preliminary work has indicated noticeable potential in correlating depolarization streak as a precursor to thundersnow flashes in a variety of geographical regions.

Autumn Millard↗