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DOE OSTI2023

Non-parametric projections of the net-income distribution for all U.S. states for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract Income distributions are a growing area of interest in the examination of equity impacts brought on by climate change and its responses. Such impacts are especially important at subnational levels, but projections of income distributions at these levels are scarce. Here, we project U.S. state-level income distributions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply a non-parametric approach, specifically a recently developed principal components algorithm to generate net income distributions for deciles across 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. We produce these projections to 2100 for three SSP scenarios in combination with varying projections of GDP per capita to represent a wide range of possible futures and uncertainties. In the generation of these scenarios, we also generated tax adjusted historical deciles by U.S. states, which we used for validating model performance. Our method thus produces income distributions by decile for each state, reflecting the variability in state income, population, and tax regimes. Our net income projections by decile can be used in both emissions- and impact-related research to understand distributional effects at various income levels and identify economically vulnerable populations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Plan evaluation for heat resilience: complementary methods to comprehensively assess heat planning in Tempe and Tucson, Arizona

Abstract Escalating impacts from climate change and urban heat are increasing the urgency for communities to equitably plan for heat resilience. Cities in the desert Southwest are among the hottest and fastest warming in the U.S., placing them on the front lines of heat planning. Urban heat resilience requires an integrated planning approach that coordinates strategies across the network of plans that shape the built environment and risk patterns. To date, few studies have assessed cities’ progress on heat planning. This research is the first to combine two emerging plan evaluation approaches to examine how networks of plans shape urban heat resilience through case studies of Tempe and Tucson, Arizona. The first methodology, Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, adapts existing plan quality assessment approaches to heat. We assess whether plans meet 56 criteria across seven principles of high-quality planning and the types of heat strategies included in the plans. The second methodology, the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat, focuses on plan policies that could influence urban heat hazards. We categorize policies by policy tool and heat mitigation strategy and score them based on their heat impact. Scored policies are then mapped to evaluate their spatial distribution and the net effect of the plan network. The resulting PIRS™ for Heat scorecard is compared with heat vulnerability indicators to assess policy alignment with risks. We find that both cities are proactively planning for heat resilience using similar plan and strategy types, however, there are clear and consistent opportunities for improvement. Combining these complementary plan evaluation methods provides a more comprehensive understanding of how plans address heat and a generalizable approach that communities everywhere could use to identify opportunities for improved heat resilience planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new data-driven map predicts substantial undocumented peatland areas in Amazonia

Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense terrestrial ecosystems yet recorded. Collectively, they comprise a large but highly uncertain reservoir of the global carbon cycle, with wide-ranging estimates of their global area (441 025–1700 000 km 2 ) and below-ground carbon storage (105–288 Pg C). Substantial gaps remain in our understanding of peatland distribution in some key regions, including most of tropical South America. Here we compile 2413 ground reference points in and around Amazonian peatlands and use them alongside a stack of remote sensing products in a random forest model to generate the first field-data-driven model of peatland distribution across the Amazon basin. Our model predicts a total Amazonian peatland extent of 251 015 km 2 (95th percentile confidence interval: 128 671–373 359), greater than that of the Congo basin, but around 30% smaller than a recent model-derived estimate of peatland area across Amazonia. The model performs relatively well against point observations but spatial gaps in the ground reference dataset mean that model uncertainty remains high, particularly in parts of Brazil and Bolivia. For example, we predict significant peatland areas in northern Peru with relatively high confidence, while peatland areas in the Rio Negro basin and adjacent south-western Orinoco basin which have previously been predicted to hold Campinarana or white sand forests, are predicted with greater uncertainty. Similarly, we predict large areas of peatlands in Bolivia, surprisingly given the strong climatic seasonality found over most of the country. Very little field data exists with which to quantitatively assess the accuracy of our map in these regions. Data gaps such as these should be a high priority for new field sampling. This new map can facilitate future research into the vulnerability of peatlands to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, which is likely to vary spatially across the Amazon basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes

About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar ( Control ) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation ( Recovery ) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation ( Degradation ). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, both GPP and ET respond negatively to extremes in vapor pressure deficit and downwelling shortwave irradiance in degraded forests in Eastern and Southern Amazon, indicating high sensitivity to droughts. Locally high-biomass forest patches showed little or no negative response of GPP and ET to extreme drought conditions whereas low-biomass forest patches in the same locations—typically degraded forest canopies—responded negatively to higher moisture stress. The results from the Recovery scenario showed similar results to simulations with observed structure; however, under the Degradation scenario, low-biomass forest patches became more abundant, resulting in more regions where GPP and ET are negatively impacted by hot drought conditions according to the ED2 model. Our results suggest that local forest structure is a critical determinant of an ecosystem’s response to climate variability, and that the loss of canopy trees in the Amazon through forest degradation could increase and expand forest vulnerability to droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Meta-analysis of North American Arctic and boreal aboveground biomass datasets: assessing accuracy, dynamics, and similarities

The North American arctic and boreal regions (ABRs) are rapidly warming and experiencing intensifying disturbances. Accurately quantifying aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for understanding the impacts of these changes on the carbon cycle and for designing climate change mitigation strategies. Several AGB maps have been developed for the North American ABRs, including recent contributions from National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) campaign. However, these maps differ widely in training data, methodology, and resulting AGB density estimates. Presently, a comprehensive comparative evaluation is lacking, making it difficult for users to select datasets suited to their research or management needs. Here, in this study, we conducted a comparative analysis of nine AGB density datasets across North American ABRs, specifically for Alaska and Canada. We (1) summarized AGB by ecoregion and Canadian provinces, (2) evaluated their accuracy against field-based measurements, (3) analyzed spatial and temporal similarities among datasets, and (4) assessed their ability to capture disturbance (fire and harvest) impacts on AGB. We found substantial variation in regional and local AGB estimates across datasets, with overall accuracy ranging from R 2 = 0.25–0.62 and Bias% from −47.8% to 69.9% when validated against field plots. Despite these differences, most datasets have comparatively consistent spatial patterns in AGB (r > 0.8 for most cases). In contrast, agreement on the temporal patterns of AGB change is generally low. We found datasets with spatial resolutions ⩽300 m are capable of capturing disturbance impacts on AGB dynamics, though sensitivity varies across products. Our findings and dataset summary provide guidance for selecting appropriate AGB datasets for different applications within our study area. Our analysis also highlights the need to decrease map bias and increase capability to detect temporal change to decrease uncertainty of AGB datasets potentially by using training data which is representative of major plant functional types within the mapped area.

ABoVE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating agrivoltaics into smallholder farming systems to enhance food production and irrigation efficiency under climate stress

Smallholder agricultural growers and entrepreneurs (SAGE) have a crucial role in sustaining food security; their cultivation accounts for roughly 30% of global crop production and contributes substantially to the diversity and nutritional value of food systems. Despite their awareness of and flexibility to adapt to productivity challenges, SAGE communities remain highly vulnerable to heat and drought stress, which threatens both livelihoods and local food availability. While intensification and adaptive farm practices offer partial resilience, their capacity to buffer sudden climatic extremes remains limited. Agrivoltaics, the dual use of land for solar electricity generation and crop cultivation, has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance agricultural productivity and its resilience to climate extremes by altering microclimatic conditions. Although proven effective in hot and arid regions, the benefits of agrivoltaics for temperate climates and small-scale farms remain minimally explored. To address this gap, we evaluated the performance of a small-scale agrivoltaics system in a temperate climate for high-value crops, including leafy vegetables and garlic. We investigate whether the system can (i) protect crops during extreme heat events and (ii) enhance productivity and reduce irrigation requirements during hot and dry periods unsuitable for conventional production. Our findings provide evidence that agrivoltaics is a climate-resilient farming strategy under current and projected climate scenarios, capable of improving yields (by +43% to +127% for the leafy vegetables grown) and reducing water consumption, while creating complementary economic opportunities through decentralized energy generation systems. This work supports the integration of agrivoltaics into small-scale agricultural systems as an innovative pathway to strengthen food security, bolster farmer livelihoods, and enable multiple co-benefits from broader solar energy adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Frequency multiplication with toroidal mode number of kink/fishbone modes on a static HL-2A-like tokamak

In the presence of energetic particles (EPs), the long-lived mode (LLM) frequency multiplication with n = 1, 2, 3, or higher is often observed on HL-2A, where n is the toroidal mode number. Hybrid kinetic-MHD model simulations of the energetic particle (EP) driven kink/fishbone modes on a static HL-2A-like tokamak using NIMROD code find that when the background plasma pressure is relatively high, and the EP pressure and the beam energy are relatively low, the mode frequency increases almost linearly with EP pressure, and the frequency is proportional to n (‘frequency multiplication’), even in the absence of any equilibrium plasma rotation. In addition, the frequency multiplication persists as the safety factor at the magnetic axis q 0 varies. In the absence of EPs, the growth rate of the 1/1 mode is the largest; however, as the EP pressure increases, the growth rate of 2/2 modes or 3/3 modes becomes dominant, suggesting that higher-n modes are more vulnerable to EPs. These results may shed light on the understanding of the toroidal mode number dependence of kink/fishbone modes in the advanced scenarios of tokamaks with weak or reversed central magnetic shear.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States

Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat exposure and maternal stress: evidence from the GRAPHS pregnancy cohort in Ghana

Heat exposure has been linked to psychosocial stress, an established antecedent of perinatal depression; however, evidence on heat-related stress during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. We analyzed psychosocial stress scores and covariate data from the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study, linking daily maximum and minimum shaded wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) metrics to participants’ stress scores derived from the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised Life Events Questionnaire. We evaluated associations using ordinal logistic regression of pregnancy-average and trimester-average exposures and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to assess time-varying associations across gestation. Higher average maximum WBGT exposure across pregnancy was associated with increased odds of higher psychosocial stress; each 1 °C increase in maximum WBGT was associated with 64% higher odds of belonging to a higher stress category (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.17–2.31; p = 0.0040). In trimester-average models, higher first-trimester maximum WBGT was also associated with higher stress (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.15–1.81; p = 0.0014). DLNMs suggested that relatively cooler daily maximum WBGT values (25th percentile) were associated with decreased odds of stress in early pregnancy, whereas extreme daily maximum WBGT values (99th percentile) showed a pattern consistent with increased odds of stress in mid-to-late gestation. These findings highlight gestational windows in which heat exposure may influence stress, emphasizing the need for further research into underlying mechanisms and effective interventions to protect maternal mental health in heat-vulnerable settings.

White, Lewis [Columbia University] (ORCID:00090005↗

DOE OSTI2025

A resource adequacy assessment of correlated wide-area outages in the power grid

As the power grid is undergoing rapid transformations, numerous questions are emerging about its vulnerability to wide-area extreme events (WAEE), which could influence its operations. Relatively few analyses have been conducted to date regarding the impact of correlated outages during WAEEs on the grid’s ability to balance resources with demand. This study addresses this gap by conducting a resource adequacy analysis for a hurricane-inspired WAEE on a 2035 synthetic power grid system for the United States. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to characterize the relative impact of weather on unserved energy. Our results indicate that although the magnitude and duration of the shortfalls vary depending on weather conditions, persistent shortfalls are observed in some regions. Initial explorations indicate a strong correlation between transmission-constrained regions and regions with persistent shortfalls. Future work could generate empirically-grounded representations for generator outages as well as conduct causal analyses of these shortfalls to improve understanding of drivers as well as possible mitigation strategies. Continued exploration of extreme weather impacts on the grid is important to develop more robust understanding of the reliability and resilience of our power systems, especially as they undergo rapid transformations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of developmental methylmercury exposure on avian embryonic development, hatchling growth, and survival

Abstract Methylmercury (MeHg) is a globally ubiquitous and persistent environmental toxicant that negatively affects animal behavior, health, and reproduction. In birds, MeHg is transferred from female to egg, contaminating embryos during sensitive stages of early embryonic development and growth. This toxic exposure in the prenatal environment not only induces mortality but also possible lasting impacts on physiology, health, and survival, even once hatched. The purpose of our study was to further elucidate the negative effects of MeHg exposure during avian embryonic development and explore how such exposure can impact offspring development, growth, and survival, both in ovo and posthatch. To assess this, we experimentally dosed fertile mallard and wood duck eggs with MeHg II chloride and reared developing embryos and ducklings to various endpoints. We found that embryos not only readily accumulated MeHg throughout incubation, but they also displayed varying dose-dependent disparities in body mass and morphometrics, with control individuals being larger during early and late embryonic stages of development (p < 0.05). Furthermore, hatched offspring exposed to MeHg exhibited increasingly slower growth rates between 7 to 10 and 10 to 15 days posthatch (p < 0.05), and were found to have lower survival probabilities both under controlled laboratory conditions (p < 0.005), and in the natural environment (p < 0.05). Our findings on the detrimental effects of MeHg on avian embryos and hatchlings emphasize the need for more proactive means of environmental protection and remediation to protect vulnerable avian populations and the ecosystems they inhabit.

Leaphart, James C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Soil microbial ecology and microbiome-metabolite linkages improve understanding of ecosystem states along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces

Coastal soils are dynamic systems where unique microbial niches are shaped by the intensity and duration of flooding between the terrestrial and aquatic boundaries of the terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI). We aimed to understand the soil microbial community (16S rRNA gene) along the TAIs of a freshwater versus estuarine region and how it relates to organic matter (OM, via Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry). We studied the TAI gradients along a transect from upland (forested), transition (stressed forest), to wetland at three sites in each of the Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (estuarine) regions. Microbial communities differed significantly by region, transect position, and site. Contrary to expectations, given their dynamic hydrologies, transitions represented midpoints in microbial richness and diversity. We identified a core microbiome conserved across all transect positions within a region, highlighting potential microbial functions most resilient to environmental change. Indicator taxa unique to each transect position defined specific niches shaped by soil biogeochemistry. Co-expression networks of feature-level β-nearest-taxon indices revealed positive relationships in bacterial and OM feature contributions to community assembly. Our study provides critical insights into microbial communities at the forefront of hydrological changes in coastal areas that connect the land to lakes and oceans and remain vulnerable to changing weather patterns.

coastal ecosystems↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gene-by-environment interactions influence the fitness cost of gene copy-number variation in yeast

Abstract Variation in gene copy number can alter gene expression and influence downstream phenotypes; thus copy-number variation provides a route for rapid evolution if the benefits outweigh the cost. We recently showed that genetic background significantly influences how yeast cells respond to gene overexpression, revealing that the fitness costs of copy-number variation can vary substantially with genetic background in a common-garden environment. But the interplay between copy-number variation tolerance and environment remains unexplored on a genomic scale. Here, we measured the tolerance to gene overexpression in four genetically distinct Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains grown under sodium chloride stress. Overexpressed genes that are commonly deleterious during sodium chloride stress recapitulated those commonly deleterious under standard conditions. However, sodium chloride stress uncovered novel differences in strain responses to gene overexpression. West African strain NCYC3290 and North American oak isolate YPS128 are more sensitive to sodium chloride stress than vineyard BC187 and laboratory strain BY4743. Consistently, NCYC3290 and YPS128 showed the greatest sensitivities to overexpression of specific genes. Although most genes were deleterious, hundreds were beneficial when overexpressed—remarkably, most of these effects were strain specific. Few beneficial genes were shared between the sodium chloride-sensitive isolates, implicating mechanistic differences behind their sodium chloride sensitivity. Transcriptomic analysis suggested underlying vulnerabilities and tolerances across strains, and pointed to natural copy-number variation of a sodium export pump that likely contributes to strain-specific responses to overexpression of other genes. Our results reveal extensive strain-by-environment interactions in the response to gene copy-number variation, raising important implications for the accessibility of copy-number variation-dependent evolutionary routes under times of stress.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cuticle development and the underlying transcriptome–metabolome associations during early seedling establishment

Abstract The plant cuticle is a complex extracellular lipid barrier that has multiple protective functions. This study investigated cuticle deposition by integrating metabolomics and transcriptomics data gathered from six different maize seedling organs of four genotypes, the inbred lines B73 and Mo17, and their reciprocal hybrids. These datasets captured the developmental transition of the seedling from heterotrophic skotomorphogenic growth to autotrophic photomorphogenic growth, a transition that is highly vulnerable to environmental stresses. Statistical interrogation of these data revealed that the predominant determinant of cuticle composition is seedling organ type, whereas the seedling genotype has a smaller effect on this phenotype. Gene-to-metabolite associations assessed by integrated statistical analyses identified three gene networks associated with the deposition of different elements of the cuticle: cuticular waxes; monomers of lipidized cell wall biopolymers, including cutin and suberin; and both of these elements. These gene networks reveal three metabolic programs that appear to support cuticle deposition, including processes of chloroplast biogenesis, lipid metabolism, and molecular regulation (e.g. transcription factors, post-translational regulators, and phytohormones). This study demonstrates the wider physiological metabolic context that can determine cuticle deposition and lays the groundwork for new targets for modulating the properties of this protective barrier.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Super-Resolution Ptychography with Small Segmented Detectors

To overcome the spatial resolution limit set by aperture-limited diffraction in traditional scanning transmission electron microscopy, microscopists have developed ptychography enabled by iterative phase retrieval algorithms and high-dynamic-range pixel array detectors. Current detector designs are limited by the data rate off chip, so a high-pixel-count detector has a proportionally lower frame rate than the few-segment detectors used for differential phase contrast (DPC) imaging. This slower acquisition speed leads to heightened vulnerability to scan noise, drift, and potential sample damage. This creates opportunities for repurposing fast segmented detectors for ptychography by trading a reduction in reciprocal space pixels for an increase in real space pixels. Here, we explore a strategy of oversampling in real space and instead apply detector pixel upsampling during the reconstruction process. Further, we demonstrate the viability of achieving super-resolution ptychography on thin objects using only 2 × 2 detector pixels, surpassing the resolution of integrated DPC (iDPC) imaging. With optimization using simulated datasets and experiments on MoTe 2 /WSe 2 bilayer moiré superlattices, we achieved super-resolution ptychography reconstructions under rapid acquisition conditions (37.5 pA, 1 μs dwell time), yielding over 50% improvements in contrast and information limit compared to annular dark field and iDPC imaging on the same detectors.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Redshift drift cosmography with ELT and SKAO measurements

ABSTRACT Mapping the expansion history of the universe is a compelling task of physical cosmology, especially in the context of the observational evidence for the recent acceleration of the universe, which demonstrates that canonical theories of cosmology and particle physics are incomplete and that there is new physics still to be discovered. Cosmography is a phenomenological approach to cosmology, where (with some caveats) physical quantities are expanded as a Taylor series in the cosmological redshift z, or analogous parameters such as the rescaled redshift y = z/(1 + z) or the logarithmic redshift x = ln (1 + z). Moreover, the redshift drift of objects following cosmological expansion provides a model-independent observable, detectable by facilities currently under construction, viz. the Extremely Large Telescope and the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (at least in its full configuration). Here, we use simulated redshift drift measurements from the two facilities to carry out an assessment of the cosmological impact and model discriminating power of redshift drift cosmography. We find that the combination of measurements from the two facilities can provide a stringent test of the Λ cold dark matter paradigm, and that overall the logarithmic-based expansions of the spectroscopic velocity drift are the most reliable ones, performing better than analogous expansions in the redshift or the rescaled redshift: the former nominally gives the smaller error bars for the cosmographic coefficients but is vulnerable to biases in the higher order terms (in other words, it is only reliable at low redshifts), while the latter always performs poorly.

Rocha, B. A. R.↗