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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

AeDES: a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for environmental suitability of Aedes-borne disease transmission

Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endemic regions by travelers, who can become new sources of mosquito infection upon their return home if the exposed population is susceptible to the disease, and if suitable environmental conditions for the mosquitoes and the virus are present. Since the susceptibility of the human population can be determined via periodic monitoring campaigns, the environmental suitability for the presence of mosquitoes and viruses becomes one of the most important pieces of information for decision makers in the health sector. We present a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for Aedes-borne diseases’ environmental suitability (AeDES) of transmission in the conterminous United States and transboundary regions, using calibrated ento-epidemiological models, climate models and temperature observations. After analyzing the seasonal predictive skill of AeDES, we briefly consider the recent Zika epidemic, and the compound effects of the current Central American dengue outbreak happening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to illustrate how a combination of tailored deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can inform key prevention and control strategies .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An intranasal recombinant NDV-BRSV F opt vaccine is safe and reduces lesion severity in a colostrum-deprived calf model of RSV infection

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is a major cause of severe lower respiratory tract disease in infants and the elderly, yet no safe, effective vaccine is commercially available. Closely related bovine RSV (BRSV) causes respiratory disease in young calves, with many similar features to those seen in HRSV. We previously showed that a Newcastle disease virus (NDV)-vectored vaccine expressing the F glycoprotein of HRSV reduced viral loads in lungs of mice and cotton rats and protected from HRSV. However, clinical signs and pathogenesis of disease in laboratory animals following HRSV infection differs from that observed in human infants. Thus, we examined whether a similar vaccine would protect neonatal calves from BRSV infection. Codon-optimized rNDV vaccine (rNDV-BRSV F opt ) was constructed and administered to colostrum-deprived calves. The rNDV-BRSV F opt vaccine was well-tolerated and there was no evidence of vaccine-enhanced disease in the upper airways or lungs of these calves compared to the non-vaccinated calves. We found two intranasal doses reduces severity of gross and microscopic lesions and decreases viral load in the lungs. Furthermore, serum neutralizing antibodies were generated in vaccinated calves. Finally, reduced lung CXC chemokine levels were observed in vaccinated calves after BRSV challenge. In summary, we have shown that rNDV-BRSV F opt vaccine is safe in colostrum-deprived calves, and is effective in reducing lung lesions, and decreasing viral load in upper respiratory tract and lungs after challenge.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lipid-coated mesoporous silica nanoparticles for anti-viral applications via delivery of CRISPR-Cas9 ribonucleoproteins

Abstract Emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens present a unique challenge for anti-viral therapeutic development. Anti-viral approaches with high flexibility and rapid production times are essential for combating these high-pandemic risk viruses. CRISPR-Cas technologies have been extensively repurposed to treat a variety of diseases, with recent work expanding into potential applications against viral infections. However, delivery still presents a major challenge for these technologies. Lipid-coated mesoporous silica nanoparticles (LCMSNs) offer an attractive delivery vehicle for a variety of cargos due to their high biocompatibility, tractable synthesis, and amenability to chemical functionalization. Here, we report the use of LCMSNs to deliver CRISPR-Cas9 ribonucleoproteins (RNPs) that target the Niemann–Pick disease type C1 gene, an essential host factor required for entry of the high-pandemic risk pathogen Ebola virus, demonstrating an efficient reduction in viral infection. We further highlight successful in vivo delivery of the RNP-LCMSN platform to the mouse liver via systemic administration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Persistence of viral RNA in North American elk experimentally infected with an ancestral strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Abstract White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have emerged as a reservoir host for SARS-CoV-2 given their susceptibility to infection and demonstrated high rates of seroprevalence and infection across the United States. As SARS-CoV-2 circulates within free-ranging white-tailed deer populations, there is the risk of transmission to other wildlife species and even back to the human population. The goal of this study was to determine the susceptibility, shedding, and immune response of North American elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) to experimental infection with SARS-CoV-2, to determine if another wide-ranging cervid species could potentially serve as a reservoir host for the virus. Here we demonstrate that while North American elk do not develop clinical signs of disease, they do develop a neutralizing antibody response to infection, suggesting the virus is capable of replicating in this mammalian host. Additionally, we demonstrate SARS-CoV-2 RNA presence in the medial retropharyngeal lymph nodes of infected elk three weeks after experimental infection. Consistent with previous observations in humans, these data may highlight a mechanism of viral persistence for SARS-CoV-2 in elk.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unravelling the dynamics of the maturation protein in MS2 bacteriophage via molecular simulations

The MS2 bacteriophage capsid serves as a model system for studying viral structure and function. Mature MS2 virus consists of 178 capsid proteins and a single maturation protein (MP), which is essential for host receptor binding and infection initiation. Despite its critical role, the dynamic behavior of the capsid with the MP remains poorly understood. To address this, we conducted 0.5 µs all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the MS2 capsid with and without the MP, revealing key insights into its structural dynamics. Our simulations showed that MP exhibits high flexibility, particularly in the “tip” and “side-loop” regions, which undergo significant motions that likely enhance its ability to engage with the F-pilus receptor. Detailed analysis of MP conformational states revealed that loop rearrangements around H357 enable transient switching between “semi-closed” and “open” conformations, suggesting a conformational selection mechanism for pilus binding. Additionally, ion interaction analyses revealed distinct sodium and chloride binding patterns, where sodium ions were mostly found at the outer capsid shell, while chloride ions interacted with the basic residues on the RNA-facing side. We also found that the presence of the MP enhances salt-bridge interactions, contributing to increased capsid stability, yet it does not significantly alter the pore sizes of pentameric and hexameric units. Together, these findings provide new insights into the functional role of the MP, highlighting its contribution to capsid stability and host receptor engagement. This study offers a foundation for understanding capsid dynamics relevant to viral infectivity and may guide future rational strategies aimed at disrupting host-virus interactions.

Capsid stability↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of theoretical scaling laws using large eddy simulations for airborne spreading of viral contagion from sneezing and coughing

Using a set of large eddy point-particle simulations, we explore the fluid dynamics of an ejected puff resulting from a cough/sneeze. The ejection contains over 61,000 potentially virus-laden droplets at an injection Reynolds number of about 46,000, comparable to an actual cough/ sneeze. We observe that global puff properties, such as centroid, puff volume, momentum, and buoyancy vary little across realizations. Other properties, such as maximum extent, shape, and edge velocity of the puff, may exhibit substantial variation. In many realizations, a portion of the puff splits off and advances along a random direction, while keeping airborne droplet nuclei afloat. This peeled-off portion provides a mechanism for virus-laden droplets to travel over large distances in a short amount of time. We also observe that the vast majority of droplets remain suspended within the puff after all liquid has evaporated. The main objectives of the study are to (i) evaluate assumptions of Balachandar’s et al. theory [Int. J. Multiphase Flow 132, 103439 (2020)], which include buoyancy effects, shape of the puff, and droplet evaporation rate, (ii) obtain values of closure parameters, which include location and time of the virtual origin, and puff entrainment and drag coefficients, and (iii) evaluate the accuracy of the theory in predicting the shape, size, and location of the puff, as well as droplet number density long after ejection. The theory adequately predicts global puff properties including size, velocity, and distance traveled, the largest size of droplets that exit the puff due to settling, and the droplet size distribution within the puff long after ejection.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structure of a paramyxovirus polymerase complex reveals a unique methyltransferase-CTD conformation

Paramyxoviruses are enveloped, nonsegmented, negative-strand RNA viruses that cause a wide spectrum of human and animal diseases. The viral genome, packaged by the nucleoprotein (N), serves as a template for the polymerase complex, composed of the large protein (L) and the homo-tetrameric phosphoprotein (P). The ~250-kDa L possesses all enzymatic activities necessary for its function but requires P in vivo. Structural information is available for individual P domains from different paramyxoviruses, but how P interacts with L and how that affects the activity of L is largely unknown due to the lack of high-resolution structures of this complex in this viral family. In this study we determined the structure of the L–P complex from parainfluenza virus 5 (PIV5) at 4.3-Å resolution using cryoelectron microscopy, as well as the oligomerization domain (OD) of P at 1.4-Å resolution using X-ray crystallography. P-OD associates with the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase domain of L and protrudes away from it, while the X domain of one chain of P is bound near the L nucleotide entry site. The methyltransferase (MTase) domain and the C-terminal domain (CTD) of L adopt a unique conformation, positioning the MTase active site immediately above the poly-ribonucleotidyltransferase domain and near the likely exit site for the product RNA 5' end. Our study reveals a potential mechanism that mononegavirus polymerases may employ to switch between transcription and genome replication. This knowledge will assist in the design and development of antivirals against paramyxoviruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inhibition mechanisms of AcrF9, AcrF8, and AcrF6 against type I-F CRISPR–Cas complex revealed by cryo-EM

Prokaryotes and viruses have fought a long battle against each other. Prokaryotes use CRISPR–Cas-mediated adaptive immunity, while conversely, viruses evolve multiple anti-CRISPR (Acr) proteins to defeat these CRISPR–Cas systems. The type I-F CRISPR–Cas system in Pseudomonas aeruginosa requires the crRNA-guided surveillance complex (Csy complex) to recognize the invading DNA. Although some Acr proteins against the Csy complex have been reported, other relevant Acr proteins still need studies to understand their mechanisms. As such, here, we obtain three structures of previously unresolved Acr proteins (AcrF9, AcrF8, and AcrF6) bound to the Csy complex using electron cryo-microscopy (cryo-EM), with resolution at 2.57 Å, 3.42 Å, and 3.15 Å, respectively. The 2.57-Å structure reveals fine details for each molecular component within the Csy complex as well as the direct and water-mediated interactions between proteins and CRISPR RNA (crRNA). Our structures also show unambiguously how these Acr proteins bind differently to the Csy complex. AcrF9 binds to key DNA-binding sites on the Csy spiral backbone. AcrF6 binds at the junction between Cas7.6f and Cas8f, which is critical for DNA duplex splitting. AcrF8 binds to a distinct position on the Csy spiral backbone and forms interactions with crRNA, which has not been seen in other Acr proteins against the Csy complex. Our structure-guided mutagenesis and biochemistry experiments further support the anti-CRISPR mechanisms of these Acr proteins. Our findings support the convergent consequence of inhibiting degradation of invading DNA by these Acr proteins, albeit with different modes of interactions with the type I-F CRISPR–Cas system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

DNA-encoded chemistry technology yields expedient access to SARS-CoV-2 M pro inhibitors

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has killed more than 4 million humans globally, but there is no bona fide Food and Drug Administration–approved drug-like molecule to impede the COVID-19 pandemic. The sluggish pace of traditional therapeutic discovery is poorly suited to producing targeted treatments against rapidly evolving viruses. Here, we used an affinity-based screen of 4 billion DNA-encoded molecules en masse to identify a potent class of virus-specific inhibitors of the SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M pro ) without extensive and time-consuming medicinal chemistry. CDD-1714, the initial three-building-block screening hit (molecular weight [MW] = 542.5 g/mol), was a potent inhibitor (inhibition constant [K i ] = 20 nM). CDD-1713, a smaller two-building-block analog (MW = 353.3 g/mol) of CDD-1714, is a reversible covalent inhibitor of M pro (K i = 45 nM) that binds in the protease pocket, has specificity over human proteases, and shows in vitro efficacy in a SARS-CoV-2 infectivity model. Subsequently, key regions of CDD-1713 that were necessary for inhibitory activity were identified and a potent (K i = 37 nM), smaller (MW = 323.4 g/mol), and metabolically more stable analog (CDD-1976) was generated. Thus, screening of DNA-encoded chemical libraries can accelerate the discovery of efficacious drug-like inhibitors of emerging viral disease targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Complex decay dynamics of HIV virions, intact and defective proviruses, and 2LTR circles following initiation of antiretroviral therapy

In persons living with HIV-1 (PLWH) who start antiretroviral therapy (ART), plasma virus decays in a biphasic fashion to below the detection limit. The first phase reflects the short half-life (<1 d) of cells that produce most of the plasma virus. The second phase represents the slower turnover (t 1/2 = 14 d) of another infected cell population, whose identity is unclear. Using the intact proviral DNA assay (IPDA) to distinguish intact and defective proviruses, we analyzed viral decay in 17 PLWH initiating ART. Circulating CD4 + T cells with intact proviruses include few of the rapidly decaying first-phase cells. Instead, this population initially decays more slowly (t 1/2 = 12.9 d) in a process that largely represents death or exit from the circulation rather than transition to latency. This more protracted decay potentially allows for immune selection. After ~3 mo, the decay slope changes, and CD4 + T cells with intact proviruses decay with a half-life of 19 mo, which is still shorter than that of the latently infected cells that persist on long-term ART. Two-long-terminal repeat (2LTR) circles decay with fast and slow phases paralleling intact proviruses, a finding that precludes their use as a simple marker of ongoing viral replication. Proviruses with defects at the 5' or 3' end of the genome show equivalent monophasic decay at rates that vary among individuals. Understanding these complex early decay processes is important for correct use of reservoir assays and may provide insights into properties of surviving cells that can constitute the stable latent reservoir.

2LTR circles↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial turnover of soil viral populations and genotypes overlain by cohesive responses to moisture in grasslands

Viruses shape microbial communities, food web dynamics, and carbon and nutrient cycling in diverse ecosystems. However, little is known about the patterns and drivers of viral community composition, particularly in soil, precluding a predictive understanding of viral impacts on terrestrial habitats. To investigate soil viral community assembly processes, here we analyzed 43 soil viromes from a rainfall manipulation experiment in a Mediterranean grassland in California. We identified 5,315 viral populations (viral operational taxonomic units [vOTUs] with a representative sequence ≥10 kbp) and found that viral community composition exhibited a highly significant distance–decay relationship within the 200-m 2 field site. This pattern was recapitulated by the intrapopulation microheterogeneity trends of prevalent vOTUs (detected in ≥90% of the viromes), which tended to exhibit negative correlations between spatial distance and the genomic similarity of their predominant allelic variants. Although significant spatial structuring was also observed in the bacterial and archaeal communities, the signal was dampened relative to the viromes, suggesting differences in local assembly drivers for viruses and prokaryotes and/or differences in the temporal scales captured by viromes and total DNA. Despite the overwhelming spatial signal, evidence for environmental filtering was revealed in a protein-sharing network analysis, wherein a group of related vOTUs predicted to infect actinobacteria was shown to be significantly enriched in low-moisture samples distributed throughout the field. Overall, our results indicate a highly diverse, dynamic, active, and spatially structured soil virosphere capable of rapid responses to changing environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biphasic decay of intact SHIV genomes following initiation of antiretroviral therapy complicates analysis of interventions targeting the reservoir

The latent reservoir for HIV-1 in resting CD4 + T cells persists despite antiretroviral therapy (ART) and precludes cure. Reservoir-targeting interventions are evaluated in ART-treated macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) or simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV). Efficacy is determined by reservoir measurements before and after the intervention. However, most proviruses persisting in the setting of ART are defective. In addition, intact HIV-1 and SIV genomes undergo complex, multiphasic decay observable when new infection events are blocked by ART. Intervention-induced elimination of latently infected cells must be distinguished from natural decay. Here, we address these issues for SHIV. We describe an intact proviral DNA assay that allows digital counting of SHIV genomes lacking common fatal defects. We show that intact SHIV genomes in circulating CD4 + T cells undergo biphasic decay during the first year of ART, with a rapid first phase (t 1/2 = 30.1 d) and a slower second phase (t 1/2 = 8.1 mo) that is still more rapid that the slow decay observed in people with HIV-1 on long-term ART (t 1/2 = 3.7 y). In SHIV models, most interventions are tested during 2nd phase decay. Natural 2nd phase decay must be considered in evaluating interventions as most infected cells present at this time do not become part of the stable reservoir. In addition, for interventions tested during 2nd phase decay, a caveat is that the intervention may not be equally effective in people with HIV on long-term ART whose reservoirs are dominated by latently infected cells with a slower decay rate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Broad and potent neutralizing human antibodies to tick-borne flaviviruses protect mice from disease

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is an emerging human pathogen that causes potentially fatal disease with no specific treatment. Mouse monoclonal antibodies are protective against TBEV, but little is known about the human antibody response to infection. Here, we report on the human neutralizing antibody response to TBEV in a cohort of infected and vaccinated individuals. Expanded clones of memory B cells expressed closely related anti-envelope domain III (EDIII) antibodies in both groups of volunteers. However, the most potent neutralizing antibodies, with IC50s below 1 ng/ml, were found only in individuals who recovered from natural infection. These antibodies also neutralized other tick-borne flaviviruses, including Langat, louping ill, Omsk hemorrhagic fever, Kyasanur forest disease, and Powassan viruses. Structural analysis revealed a conserved epitope near the lateral ridge of EDIII adjoining the EDI–EDIII hinge region. Prophylactic or early therapeutic antibody administration was effective at low doses in mice that were lethally infected with TBEV.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ongoing Cooperative Engagement Facilitates Agile Pandemic and Outbreak Response: Lessons Learned Through Cooperative Engagement Between Uganda and the United States

Pathogens threaten human lives and disrupt economies around the world. This has been clearly illustrated by the current COVID-19 pandemic and outbreaks in livestock and food crops. Here, to manage pathogen emergence and spread, cooperative engagement programs develop and strengthen biosafety, biosecurity, and biosurveillance capabilities among local researchers to detect pathogens. In this case study, we describe the efforts of a collaboration between the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Uganda Virus Research Institute, the primary viral diagnostic laboratory in Uganda, to implement and ensure the sustainability of sequencing for biosurveillance. We describe the process of establishing this capability along with the lessons learned from both sides of the partnership to inform future cooperative engagement efforts in low- and middle-income countries. We found that by strengthening sequencing capabilities at the Uganda Virus Research Institute before the COVID-19 pandemic, the institute was able to successfully sequence SARS-CoV-2 samples and provide data to the scientific community. We highlight the need to strengthen and sustain capabilities through in-country training, collaborative research projects, and trust.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Persistent minimal sequences of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract Motivation Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused more than 14 million cases and more than half million deaths. Given the absence of implemented therapies, new analysis, diagnosis and therapeutics are of great importance. Results Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the current outbreak reveals the presence of short persistent DNA/RNA sequences that are absent from the human genome and transcriptome (PmRAWs). For the PmRAWs with length 12, only four exist at the same location in all SARS-CoV-2. At the gene level, we found one PmRAW of size 13 at the Spike glycoprotein coding sequence. This protein is fundamental for binding in human ACE2 and further use as an entry receptor to invade target cells. Applying protein structural prediction, we localized this PmRAW at the surface of the Spike protein, providing a potential targeted vector for diagnostics and therapeutics. In addition, we show a new pattern of relative absent words (RAWs), characterized by the progressive increase of GC content (Guanine and Cytosine) according to the decrease of RAWs length, contrarily to the virus and host genome distributions. New analysis shows the same property during the Ebola virus outbreak. At a computational level, we improved the alignment-free method to identify pathogen-specific signatures in balance with GC measures and removed previous size limitations. Availability and implementation https://github.com/cobilab/eagle. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Pratas, Diogo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive characterization of N- and O- glycosylation of SARS-CoV-2 human receptor angiotensin converting enzyme 2

The emergence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has created the need for development of new therapeutic strategies. Understanding the mode of viral attachment, entry and replication has become a key aspect of such interventions. The coronavirus surface features a trimeric spike (S) protein that is essential for viral attachment, entry and membrane fusion. The S protein of SARS-CoV-2 binds to human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) for entry. Herein, we describe glycomic and glycoproteomic analysis of hACE2 expressed in HEK293 cells. We observed high glycan occupancy (73.2 to 100%) at all seven possible N-glycosylation sites and surprisingly detected one novel O-glycosylation site. To deduce the detailed structure of glycan epitopes on hACE2 that may be involved in viral binding, we have characterized the terminal sialic acid linkages, the presence of bisecting GlcNAc and the pattern of N-glycan fucosylation. We have conducted extensive manual interpretation of each glycopeptide and glycan spectrum, in addition to using bioinformatics tools to validate the hACE2 glycosylation. Our elucidation of the site-specific glycosylation and its terminal orientations on the hACE2 receptor, along with the modeling of hACE2 glycosylation sites can aid in understanding the intriguing virus-receptor interactions and assist in the development of novel therapeutics to prevent viral entry. Here, the relevance of studying the role of ACE2 is further increased due to some recent reports about the varying ACE2 dependent complications with regard to age, sex, race and pre-existing conditions of COVID-19 patients.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source’s infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model—which make use of different information within a tree—suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Number and Pattern of Viral Genomic Reassortments are not Necessarily Identifiable from Segment Trees

Reassortment is an evolutionary process common in viruses with segmented genomes. These viruses can swap whole genomic segments during cellular co-infection, giving rise to novel progeny formed from the mixture of parental segments. Since large-scale genome rearrangements have the potential to generate new phenotypes, reassortment is important to both evolutionary biology and public health research. However, statistical inference of the pattern of reassortment events from phylogenetic data is exceptionally difficult, potentially involving inference of general graphs in which individual segment trees are embedded. In this paper, we argue that, in general, the number and pattern of reassortment events are not identifiable from segment trees alone, even with theoretically ideal data. We call this fact the fundamental problem of reassortment, which we illustrate using the concept of the “first-infection tree,” a potentially counterfactual genealogy that would have been observed in the segment trees had no reassortment occurred. Further, we illustrate four additional problems that can arise logically in the inference of reassortment events and show, using simulated data, that these problems are not rare and can potentially distort our observation of reassortment even in small data sets. Finally, we discuss how existing methods can be augmented or adapted to account for not only the fundamental problem of reassortment, but also the four additional situations that can complicate the inference of reassortment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗