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At least 847 records · Page 47

Reducing Departure Delays for Adjacent Center Airports using Time-Based Flow Management Scheduler: Checkbox On or Off?

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has enhanced the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) scheduling tool with a "Checkbox ON" vs. "OFF" function which allows Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) to make room in a crowded arrival stream for a departure. When scheduling a departure, having the checkbox ON can delay the Scheduled Times of Arrivals (STAs) of the airborne flights upstream of the TBFM freeze horizons and can compress these flights to their minimum required spacing, thereby creating a slot for a departure. Hence, having the checkbox ON can reduce the frequent ground delays of aircraft departing near high volume airports but can increase delays for airborne arrivals. A Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation compared arrival and departure delays to Newark Airport (EWR) with the checkbox ON vs. OFF as the default position. Three other conditions in this HITL involved various National Airspace System (NAS)-wide approaches for timely delivery of aircraft to the TBFM region. These conditions were: Baseline, using current Mile-in-Trail (MIT) spacing restrictions; Integrated Demand Management (IDM), where all aircraft were given departure times (Expect Departure Clearance Times, or EDCTs), ultimately based on the EWR Airport Arrival Rate; and IDM plus Required Time of Arrival (RTA), a flight deck tool which allowed some aircraft to meet a controlled time of arrival to the TBFM area more precisely. Results showed that the checkbox tool was powerful: with the checkbox ON, departure delays decreased and airborne delays increased, as predicted. However, assuming that the cost ratio of a minute of airborne delay to a minute of departure delay is in the range of 1.2 to 3, as commonly indicated by the literature, checkbox ON and checkbox OFF conditions showed approximately equal total delay costs, i.e., the cost of delays in the air balanced the cost of the delay on the ground. The three scheduling conditions also had approximately equal total delay costs, although a simulation artifact may have reduced the delays in the Baseline condition. In the debrief following the simulation, the TMCs concluded that the checkbox should be used flexibly depending on the current delay situation, and suggested modifications to the checkbox tool which would help them use it in this way, along with enhanced training. The relatively similar total cost of both checkbox default options in this simulation indicates that this might be a fruitful approach, and replace the necessity to have the checkbox rigidly set to either ON or OFF.

departure delay↗

Generic Control Allocation Toolbox for Preliminary Vehicle Design

This paper describes the development and application of a Generic Control Allocation Toolbox developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LGCAT) intended to aid engineers during the preliminary design phase of an aerospace vehicle. The static controllability space in the forms of a Theoretical Attainable Moment Set, Φ, or Theoretical Attainable Force Set, φ is difficult to visualize for modern vehicles with multiple types of redundant control effectors. The objective of LGCAT is to provide system engineers and designers early in the vehicle design phase with quick insights on how control effector parameters such as quantity, sizing, location, orientation, redundancy, etc., affect the overall controllability and other performance metrics. Having such information in hand allows system engineers to make more informed decisions on overall mission objectives such as performance vs. reliability vs. cost, etc. early in a vehicle design phase and reduce the number of iterations necessary in the design and analysis cycles. LGCAT can accept a variety of control effector types including aerodynamic surfaces, rotors, thrust vector control (TVC) engines, and reaction control systems (RCS). LGCAT is MATLAB based, user friendly, and is capable of performing the analysis in the Graphical User Interface (GUI) or script mode. Current add-on features include interfacing with engineering level codes such as Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP) and generating the corresponding Φ and φ for an arbitrary vehicle design. These capabilities potentially make LGCAT an integral part of the preliminary design phase for any vehicle.

Pei, Jing↗

NASA IV&V's Cyber Range for Space Systems

A cyber range is a virtual environment that is used for cyberwarfare training and cyber technology development. It provides tools that help strengthen the stability, security and performance of cyber infrastructures and IT systems. NASA IV&V has created an adaptable virtual environment that is representative of a typical NASA mission system of systems environment that serves multiple purposes: Training of network defenders. Ability to perform simulated red vs blue training events. Ability to deploy mission specific technologies in a cyber contested environment. Ability to demonstrate vulnerabilities and their impact to ground and space systemsThe overall system is comprised of more than 70 virtual machines and physical infrastructure to demonstrate real-world cyber attacks against: email users, wireless networks, and physically implanted devices with command and control call-back. The cyber range was built to emulate a NASA precipitation satellite infrastructure.This presentation will give an overview of the virtual cyber range and how it was used to conduct a simulate red vs blue exercise with the goal of compromising the simulated spacecraft that utilizes real NASA flight software.

test and evaluation DT&E↗

Using Advanced Mass Spectrometry Techniques to Fully Characterize Atmospheric Organic Carbon: Current Capabilities and Remaining Gaps

Organic compounds in the atmosphere vary widely in their molecular composition and chemical properties, so no single instrument can reasonably measure the entire range of ambient compounds. Over the past decade, a new generation of in-situ, field-deployable mass spectrometers has dramatically improved our ability to detect, identify, and quantify these organic compounds, but no systematic approach has been developed to assess the extent to which currently available tools capture the entire space of chemical identity and properties that is expected in the atmosphere. Reduced-parameter frameworks that have been developed to describe atmospheric mixtures are exploited here to characterize the range of chemical properties accessed by a suite of instruments. Multiple chemical spaces (e.g. oxidation state of carbon vs. volatility, and oxygen number vs. carbon number) were populated with ions measured by several mass spectrometers, with gas- and particle-phase α-pinene oxidation products serving as the test mixture of organic compounds. Few gaps are observed in the coverage of the parameter spaces by the instruments employed in this work, though the full extent to which comprehensive measurement was achieved is difficult to assess due to uncertainty in the composition of the mixture. Overlaps between individual ions and regions in parameter space were identified, both between gas- and particle-phase measurements, and within each phase. These overlaps were conservatively found to account for little (<10%) of the measured mass. However, challenges in identifying overlaps and in accurately converting molecular formulas into chemical properties (such as volatility or reactivity) highlight a continued need to incorporate structural information into atmospheric measurements.

G. Isaacman-VanWertz↗

Combining Fractional Calorimetry with Statistical Methods to Characterize Thermal Runaway

Fractional thermal runaway calorimetry (FTRC) techniques were introduced to examine thermal runaway (TR) behavior of lithium-ion (Li-ion) cells. Specifically, FTRC considers the total energy released vs. the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. This device has been expanded to universally support FTRC testing of additional cell types including 21700-format, D-Cell format, and large prismatic format Li-ion cells. The TR behavior as influenced by cell format, manufacturer, chemistry, capacity, and in situ safety features are described in this presentation.

Walker, William↗

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project: ACAS Xu HITL Overview

This presentation provides an overview of a recently completed human-in-the-loop simulation, conducted as part of the Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project. This study examined how to present resolution advisories (RAs) issued by Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS) Xu, which can be in the vertical dimension, the horizontal dimension, or both (i.e., "blended"). The study varied the location of the ACAS Xu traffic information - it was either presented within an 'integrated' display or a 'standalone' display, where the traffic information was separated from the vehicle control interfaces and navigational information. The presentation covers the test set-up, scenario design, and facilities utilized in this experiment. The primary dependent variables are listed, but no detailed results are included in this outbrief since data analysis is still underway. Goal: assess ACAS Xu Run 5 in a HITL setting to measure pilot & system performance – RWC alerting and guidance – RA alerting and guidance • Horizontal-only, vertical-only, and blended RAs • Strengthening RAs, reversals and added/removed RAs during blended maneuvers – Incorporate realistic sensor noise into the simulation environment – Compare pilot and DAA system performance back to NASA’s Phase 1 DAA MOPS V&V HITL • We leveraged the findings of an engineering analysis conducted in March to help inform how to implement the Xu logic – Part 1 focused on how to display horizontal-only, vertical-only and blended RAs – Part 2 focused on how to display automated RA responses Xu Engineering Analysis Results Part 1 objectives: – Characterize pilot responses to (canned) ACAS Xu RAs in a variety of display configurations • With vs. Without text accompaniment • Simple vs. ‘Advanced’ aural alerting • Results – Pilots struggled to meet 5 seconds initial response requirement • Particularly against horizontal and blended RAs – Pilots failed to respond more quickly to secondary RAs • Expected response time to subsequent RAs = 2.5 seconds No clear effect of the different alerting conditions on response times – Response times primarily driven by RA type • Pilots demonstrated high level of compliance with RAs and self-reported Xu alerting and guidance as being acceptable – 1/5 reported text as being necessary – 4/5 wanted the aural alert to retain the original RA sequence (i.e., issue a follow-on RA second rather than first) – 4/5 wanted to retain the “Maintain Heading/Vertical Speed” aural alert in the event that the pilot reached their target response at the time of secondary RA Based on these results, we decided on the following for the HITL experimental design: – Incorporated an ‘auto-fill’ feature in Vigilant Spirit that removes the need for pilots to manually enter a heading or altitude for RAs • Pilots only have to click ‘Send’ to upload the RA target heading/altitude – Did not include an RA ‘text box’ • The auto-fill feature largely replaces the purpose of the text box – Using a combination of the ‘Basic’ and ‘Advanced’ aural alerting • In case of blended maneuvers will issue “Maintain Heading/Vertical Rate” if pilot has reached 1st RA target at the time the 2nd RA is issued • Integration and testing with Xu Run 5 also resulted in us adding display logic to modify how horizontal RAs are presented – Target heading was shown to update at approx. 1 Hz making it difficult for pilots to implement – Display logic limited horizontal RA strengthening to once every 5 seconds • Did not impact timing of reversals, new RAs (i.e., blended), or CoC Engineering Analysis Results

human systems integration↗

Near-Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy of Venus-Analog Rocks at Venus Surface Temperatures

Venus’ surface can be viewed in emission through the relatively opaque atmosphere via a few spectral ‘windows’ in the near-infrared (NIR, most near 1 μm). Venus’ surface appears to show emissivities that correlate with surface geology, and these emissivity variations are interpreted as differences in surface rock type (mafic vs. silicic) and/or extent of weathering (Fe(2+) silicates vs. Fe(3+)-oxide-coated). To understand and quantify the observed variations in NIR emissivity, laboratories are measuring high-T NIR emissivity directly. For example, the measured emissivities of basalts in the wavelength range 0.85 – 1.2 μm are ~0.9. This value can be tested by measurement of reflectance, because Kirchoff’s Law holds that emissivity (e) = 1 – reflectance (r). The r of basalt in the NIR is ~0.1 so its e should be ~0.9. However, high-T NIR e’s of silicic igneous rocks (granitic, rhyolite) are reported to be 0.8-0.9, which is inconsistent with r values of 0.3-0.7 of such rocks at room-T. For both datasets to be correct, the r values of silicic igneous rock would have to decrease precipitously between room and Venus surface temperatures. This seems unlikely.

Treiman, A. H.↗

The NASA Analogy Software Cost Model: A Web-Based Cost Analysis Tool

This paper provides an overview of the many new features and algorithm updates in the release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA Flight Software analysis. ASCoT employs advanced statistical methods such as Cluster Analysis to provide an analogy based estimate of software delivered lines of code and development effort, a regression based Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) model that estimates cost (dollars), and a COCOMO II based estimate. The ASCoT algorithms are designed to primarily work with system level inputs such as mission type (earth orbiter vs. planetary vs. rover), the number of instruments, and total mission cost. This allows the user to supply a minimal number of mission-level parameters which are better understood early in the life-cycle, rather than a large number of complex inputs.

Hihn, Jairus↗

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗

Hot Rocks! Near-Infrared Reflectances (and Emissivities) or Rocks at Venus Surface Temperatures

Venus’ surface can be viewed in emission through a few near-infrared (NIR) spectral ‘windows’ (1 µm) in its relatively opaque atmosphere [1]. Venus’ surface shows NIR emissivities that correlate with surface geology [2-4], and these emissivity variations are interpreted as differences in surface rock type (mafic vs. silicic) and/or extent of weathering (Fe2+ silicates vs. Fe3+-oxide-coated). To understand and quantify the observed variations in NIR emissivity, high-temperature (T) emissivity can be measured directly [5,6]. For example, emissivities of basalts in the wavelength range 0.85 – 1.2 µm are ~0.95 [5-8]. This can be tested by measureing reflectance, because Kirchoff’s Law holds that emissivity (e) = 1 – reflectance (r). The r of basalt in the NIR is ~0.05 [o] consistent with a NIR e of ~0.95 [5-8]. High-T NIR e’s of silicic igneous rocks (granitic, rhyolite) have been reported to be 0.8-0.9 [5,6], which is inconsistent with r values of 0.3-0.8 of such rocks at 25°C [9,10]. However, these measurements have been updated [7,8] and are consistent with the results here (see below and Fig. 3).

Treiman, A. H.↗

An Improved Far-Field Small Unmanned Aerial System Optical Detection Algorithm

Onboard far-field aircraft detection is needed for safe non-cooperative traffic mitigation for autonomous small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) operations. This work presents an aircraft detect and track pipeline that fuses image differencing and morphological filtering detections for inputs to a Kalman-based object tracking pipeline. The pipeline is evaluated using two types of flight encounters: 1) motorcopter sUAS vs. fixed-wing sUAS 2) motorcopter sUAS vs general aviation plane.

Chester Dolph↗

Analyzing Natural Language Context in Human-Machine Teaming using Supervised Machine Learning

Building a foundation for trustworthiness and trust verification in multi-asset teaming is the research challenge of Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR). The Design Reference Mission (DRM) for ATTRACTOR is a search and rescue mission objective governed by a multi-member team consisting of human and machine operators. A crucial component to the effort is the communication between humans and autonomous agents throughout both planning and execution stages of the mission. Intuitive communication methods and modalities are posited as critical enablers for certifying trust and trustworthiness. This paper reports on the data collection and analysis conducted in support of the Human Informed Natural-language GANs Evaluation (HINGE)project to attain explainable and trusted communication between human-machine assets. Two identically curated image description datasets were acquired for HINGE, both consisting of two unique input modalities (typed vs. verbal) and retrieved in two distinct contexts (general vs. specific). The gathered datasets were assessed and compared using Parts-of-Speech (POS)features, sentence similarity metrics, and linguistic analysis. Then, the datasets were modeled and tested separately and in combination with one another using machine learning algorithms. The comparison and testing results reveal a superior dataset, by which a preferred context and input is understood, for generating image representations of missing persons using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN).

Bryan A Barrows↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-16206-DND

Energy cost comparison does not take into account that electric aircraft can be more aerodynamically efficient (at 150 or 200 mph). Prior concept comparison (SR-20 vs eSwift-2) yielded a 11x difference in energy cost. If off peak electric rates were also applied the result would have been 21x reduction. Prior concept comparison (SR-22 vs e AT L I T) yielded a 12.6x difference in energy cost. If off peak electric rates were also applied the result would have been 24x reduction. Comparing against the Eclipse 500 yields even greater differences.

Mark D Moore↗

Isotopically Tracking Nitrogen Oxides, Nitrous Acid, And Nitric Acid, Particulate Nitrate from Wildfire During FIREX-AQ

Wildfires are an important source of reactive nitrogen species including nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and nitrous acid (HONO), as well as products such as nitric acid (HNO3) and particulate nitrate (p-NO3-). These species have strongly influence air quality and climate. In summer of 2019 (July 25 —August 21), as part of the FIREX-AQ ground mission, we drove ~3000 miles and sampled smoke of different ages in both daytime and nighttime from 5 different wildfires in the western US. Using recently developed methods that have been validated in both laboratory and field settings, we conducted high time resolution collection of NOx, NO2, HONO, HNO3, and p-NO3- for off-line characterization of isotopic composition δ15N, δ18O and Δ17O (=δ17O−0.52 δ18O). δ15N serves as a potential tracer for tracking sources and reactive nitrogen cycling pathways, δ18O and Δ17O provide key information about oxidation pathways (i.e. O3 versus RO2). Our measured δ15N for HONO ranges from -4.9‰ to +5.2‰ and -8‰ to +5.2‰ respectively, in the majority overlapping with our prior lab controlled burning results, which suggests the capability of δ15N for tracing the biomass burning emissions against other sources including vehicular emissions and soil emissions. In addition, our measurements show δ18O and Δ17O for NO2 and HONO vary significantly day vs night, as well as in young smoke vs aged smoke, likely reflecting different oxidizing mechanisms under different smoke conditions. Preliminary results of isotopic signatures of all the above reactive nitrogen species will be presented, and their relationships will be explored to identify wildfire derived reactive nitrogen source signatures and to constrain atmospheric processing pathways (e.g. secondary formation of HONO) for different fires under various smoke conditions depending on fuel types, fire conditions and meteorological conditions.

Jiajue Chai↗

Analysis of Historical International Space Station Logistical Mass Delivery

Crewed space exploration missions are extremely logistics dependent, as cargo requirements shape numerous program elements such as vehicle and habitat size. Logistics mass is the mass of items like food and clothing that are not a part of the vehicle or habitat, yet are required by the crew to complete the mission. Numerous studies, such as the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) and the Human Exploration Spacecraft Testbed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA) 20-foot chamber analog, have been conceived to research the rates at which crews consume logistics mass. These analogs can simulate many aspects of life in space, including confinement, isolation, limited supplies, and, in certain experiments, the habitat pressure. However, some aspects of space exploration, such as the effects of low gravity and the use of space-based amenities, cannot currently be tested on the ground. In this paper, International Space Station (ISS) manifest data obtained through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Mission Integration Database Application System (MIDAS) portal is used as a precursor to space-based analogs. The objective of the analysis is determining the breakdown of logistics mass used in space exploration. This identifies potential areas of improvement and highlights the rates at which significant items are supplied, aiding in the weighing of alternative options such as utilizing in space manufacturing for supplies vs. manifesting spares, or cleaning clothing in flight vs. discarding it. Official flight manifests ranging a span of 878 days, just short of the three-year length of a potential human mission to Mars, were analyzed to find the rates at which astronauts consumed various logistics supplies. From this analysis we have found that contrary to our own hypothesis, ‘food’ was not the largest portion of the supplied mass. Instead, ‘Environmental Control and Life Support Systems’ (ECLSS) contributed 34% of the overall supplied mass, followed by ‘Science and Outfitting,’ which contributed 29%. Food totaled less than a quarter (21% of the resupplied mass, while other items of focus in mass reduction efforts such as ‘Hygiene’ (6%), ‘Clothing’ (3%), and ‘Operational Supplies’ (4%) each contributed less than a tenth of the supplied mass. This data suggests that by categorizing and analyzing the data based on an alternative taxonomy and analyzing the full supply manifests rather than handpicked items, we have revealed unexpectedly significant items which had not been previously tracked by exploration logistics efforts. For example, toilet hardware made up 4% of ECLSS mass, and laptop hardware and multi-tools each made up 10% of operational supplies mass. Additionally, the ‘Specialized Clothing’ subcategory containing fire protective equipment, coveralls, and penguin suits made up 15% of the overall clothing mass. By identifying these newly found significant items, we can create more realistic mass estimates for exploration missions and direct mass reduction efforts to new areas, potentially leading to lower future mission masses.

Logistics↗

Detection and Tracking of Aircraft in the Far-Field from Small Unmanned Aerial Systems

Onboard far-field aircraft detection is needed for safe non-cooperative traffic mitigation in autonomous small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) operations. Machine vision systems, based on standard optics and visible light detectors, possess the ideal size, weight, and power (SWaP) requirements for sUAS. This work presents the design and analysis of a novel aircraft detection and tracking pipeline based on optical sensing alone. Key contributions of the work include a refined range inequality model based on sensing and detection with FAA well-clear separation assurance distances between aircraft in mind, a detector fusion method to maximize the benefit of two image detectors, and a comparative analysis of Linear Kalman-filtering and Extended Kalman-filtering to seek optimal tracking performance. The pipeline is evaluated offline against multiple intruder platforms, using two types of flight encounters: multirotor sUAS vs. fixed-wing sUAS and multirotor sUAS vs. general aviation(GA)plane. Analysis is restricted to the rate-limiting head-on and departing collision volume cases vertically separated for safety. Results indicate that it is feasible to use the proposed optical spatial-temporal tracking algorithm to provide adequate alerting time to prevent penetration of well-clear separation volumes for both sUAS and GA aircraft.

Unmanned Aerial System↗

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

Between the years of 1995 and 2014 the number of small satellites (1-500 kg) went up from 20 to 180. [1] Out of the 180 launched in 2014 66% were Nano satellites (1-10 kg). [1] With this trend of smaller satellites, one would expect a rise in number of small launch vehicles (SLVs are defined by capability to carry 1-100 kg to orbit), but this has not happened: [3] only 8% of all small satellites are launched on SLVs and the others become secondary payloads on regular launch vehicles. [1] This results in small satellites being placed into either suboptimal orbits or waiting for launch schedules to align with bigger launches, resulting in long waiting times. Dedicated SLVs could improve the responsiveness of small satellite launches, but SLV design is complicated by the large architecture space needed to be explored in order to find efficient and affordable designs. The SLV architecture trade space contains many discrete options, e.g. solid vs. liquid fuels, air launch vs. ground launch, number of stages, etc. [2][3] Performing detailed analysis for all the options at once would be prohibitive. Thus, a sizing environment/framework that is capable of providing necessary information for conceptual-level trade studies and can rapidly explore the vast SLV architecture space is necessary. The framework, illustrated in Figure 1, consists of four disciplines central to the sizing and synthesis of launch vehicles: propulsion, aerodynamics, structures, and trajectory. For the aerodynamics and trajectory disciplines, Missile DATCOM and POST2 are used, respectively. The propulsion and structures disciplines are represented in the framework with tools developed at ASDL Georgia Tech. For propulsion, the Solid Motor Analysis Code (SMAC) is a physics-based conceptual design tool for solid rocket motors. SMAC is capable of geometric burn simulation, ballistic analysis, and prediction of thrust performance. [4] For structures, Launch Vehicle Structural Analysis (LVSA) tool is a physics-based tool that focuses on structural dynamic analysis with sizing capability. These tools are integrated into the framework illustrated in Figure 1 with the corresponding connections described in Table 1. The process flow is as follows: first, SMAC sizes insulation and calculates maximum operating pressures for each vehicle stage. The MEOP and insulation thickness values from SMAC are fed to LVSA which then utilizes this information to size the motor casing. This creates a feedback loop between LVSA and SMAC that converges on the radius available for fuel, casing, and insulation thickness. Once the stage sizing is converged on SMAC creates an engine deck that is passed to POST2. Next, the data from SMAC and LVSA goes into Missile DATCOM which generates an aerodynamics database for POST2. Finally, POST2 performs a targeting optimization while maximizing the payload mass to orbit. Within the framework, POST2 is automated in order to be robust to a wide variety of possible designs by performing a Monte Carlo simulation over the initialization vector of the POST2 optimization variables. To demonstrate the capability of this framework, a sample problem of exploring the design space of an SLV capable of placing satellites into a low Earth orbit (inclination=47 deg, 196.5 by 211.3 nm) is used. This sample problem is a ground-launched SLV consisting of four in-line SRM stages. The multidisciplinary design analysis (MDA) environment is utilized to explore a design space consisting of 22 continuous and 12 discrete variables, shown by Table 1 by blocks 1,2,3. Running a full factorial design of experiments (DOE) would have been prohibitively expensive even with this reduced design space, thus a space filling design with 3,502 and then additional expansion of 2,602 cases was used. The first DOE consisted of 3,502 cases, and all of the variables were varied. These input variables are listed in blocks 1, 2, and 3 in Table 1. Most of the variables are propulsion related with stage lengths determining the delta-V split of the SLV. The expansion consisted of 2,602 cases, and the continuous variables were set to be equal to the most promising designs from the sizing of first DOE. For each set of continuous variables, the discrete variables (grain type, star points, and propellant) were to varied. The results of the DOE can be seen in Figure 2; each of the points in this plot represents a closed launch vehicle that reaches the targeted orbit. For each of the cases, there is information on flown trajectory, structural, and propulsion properties of the SLV. For example, Figure 3 shows changes in altitude and velocity with time for a particular case. The right side of Figure 3 clearly shows the coasting (slow decrease) and burning phases (sharp increase) of the SLV mission. LV mass is positively correlated with the optimized payload mass to orbit because heavier LVs carry more fuel and thus have more stored chemical energy. Furthermore, for any given payload mass to orbit, the most efficient design would result in the smallest LV. The results as visualized in Figure 2 shows this tradeoff, and the Pareto frontier of the efficient designs can be seen along the dotted line. Figure 2 can be divided into regions with the lowest mass vehicles corresponding to the minimum bound on radius, and the highest mass vehicles corresponding to the maximum bound on radius. Within a mass region, the discrete variables, such as propellant type and propellant grain arrangement, have the most effect on payload mass. This paper presents an MDA framework that can perform an automated physics-based sizing of SLV designs and a corresponding methodology to utilize the MDA to explore the design space of SLVs. The proposed methodology was applied to a perform a design space exploration for a four stage SLV. The outputs show the expected pareto frontier forming and provide detailed information about the SLV performance and staging. Using the produced data, it will be possible to select a set of pareto optimal designs that can then be further explored in subsequent design cycles. This demonstration shows that automated design space exploration should be used in the early phase design of future SLV concepts.

Nikita S Birbasov↗

Sensitivities in Satellite Lidar‐Derived Estimates of Daytime Top‐of‐the‐Atmosphere Optically Thin Cirrus Cloud Radiative Forcing: A Case Study

An optically thin cirrus cloud was profiled concurrently with nadir‐pointing 1,064 nm lidars on 11 August 2017 over eastern Texas, including NASA's airborne Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) and space‐borne Clouds and Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. Despite resolving fewer (37% vs. 94%) and denser (i.e., more emissive) clouds (average cloud optical depth of 0.10 vs. 0.03, respectively), CATS data render a near‐equal estimate of the top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) versus CPL. The sample‐relative TOA net CRF solved from CPL is 1.39 W/m2, which becomes 1.32 W/m2 after normalizing by occurrence frequency. Since CATS overestimates extinction for this case, the sample‐relative TOA net forcing is ~3.0 W/m2 larger than CPL, with the absolute value reduced to within 0.3 W/m2 of CPL due its underestimation of cloud occurrence. We discuss the ramifications of thin cirrus cloud detectability from satellite and its impact on attempts at TOA CRF closure.

Erica K. Dolinar↗