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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47

Accelerating Transitions to Zero Carbon Power Systems

As power systems evolve, becoming increasingly renewable, distributed, dynamic, and digital, managing them becomes ever more challenging and complex. System operators serve as the "air traffic controllers" for electricity grids, working to balance supply and demand, manage evolving electricity markets, and ensure the safety and reliability of electricity systems. To adapt to the rapidly changing energy landscape and support the transition to modern, zero carbon power systems, system operators must develop and adopt new technologies, approaches, and frameworks. The Global Power System Transformation (G-PST) Consortium is a network of system operators, research institutions, and industry partners working to accelerate and scale the technical solutions required to transform our world's power systems. By developing and sharing robust models and tools, research and demonstration results, knowledge, and innovation, the G-PST Consortium is empowering system operators to transition to 100% renewable energy while ensuring the reliability, safety, and cost-effectiveness of grid operations.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

Primary and secondary ice production: interactions and their relative importance

A discrepancy of up to 5 orders of magnitude between ice crystal and ice nucleating particle (INP) number concentrations was found in the measurements, indicating the potentially important role of secondary ice production (SIP) in the clouds. However, the interactions between primary and SIP processes and their relative importance remain unexplored. In this study, we implemented five different ice nucleation schemes as well as physical representations of SIP processes (i.e., droplet shattering during rain freezing, ice-ice collisional break-up, and rime splintering) in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We ran CESM2 in the single column mode for model comparisons with the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) observations. We found that the model experiments with aerosol-aware ice nucleation schemes and SIP processes yield the best simulation results for the M-PACE single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We further investigated the relative importance of ice nucleation and SIP to ice number and cloud phase as well as interactions between ice nucleation and SIP in the M-PACE single-layer mixed-phase clouds. Our results show that SIP contributes 80 % to the total ice formation and transforms ~30 % of pure liquid-phase clouds simulated in the model experiments without considering SIP into mixed-phase clouds. The SIP is not only a result of ice crystals produced from ice nucleation, but also competes with the ice nucleation by reducing the number concentrations of cloud droplets and cloud-borne dust INPs. Conversely, strong ice nucleation also suppresses SIP by glaciating mixed-phase clouds and thereby reducing the amount of precipitation particles (rain and graupel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simultaneous single-shot rotation–vibration non-equilibrium thermometry using pure rotational fs/ps CARS coherence beating

Here, we report the development of a simple and sensitive two-beam hybrid femtosecond/picosecond pure rotational coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (fs/ps CARS) method to simultaneously measure the rotational and vibrational temperatures of diatomic molecules. Rotation–vibration non-equilibrium plays a key role in the chemistry and thermalization in low-temperature plasmas as well as thermal loading of hypersonic vehicles. This approach uses time-domain interferences between ground state and vibrationally excited N 2 molecules to intentionally induce coherence beating that leads to apparent non-Boltzmann distributions in the pure rotational spectra. These distortions enable simultaneous inference of both the rotational and vibrational temperatures. Coherence beating effects were observed in single-shot fs/ps CARS measurements of a 75 Torr N 2 DC glow discharge and were successfully modeled for rotational and vibrational temperature extraction. We show that this method can be more sensitive than a pure rotational fs/ps CARS approach using a spectrally narrow probe pulse. Lastly, we experimentally measured the beat frequencies via Fourier transform of the time-domain response and obtained excellent agreement with the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Euler-Rodrigues Parameters: A Quantum Circuit to Calculate Rigid-Body Rotations

The use of vectorial parameterization to create geometrical representations in computational models has a large number of applications. One particular application is the calculation of the 3D rotational motion of rigid bodies, that could be used for the spatial location estimation from objects. Provided the algebraic nature of this problem, it could benefit from Quantum Computing, in particular several vectors could be superposed to be transformed with a single operation, providing a quantum processing advantage. In this article, we propose an implementation of a Quantum Computing algorithm to compute Euler-Rodrigues Parameters to model rigid body rotations to transform arbitrary functions, rotating multiple vectors in superposition. We developed this algorithm using Qiskit, taking into account the limitations imposed by the current Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices, such as the reduced number of qubits available and the limited coherence time.

Pelaez, Emilio↗

Chemical transformations and transport phenomena at interfaces

Abstract Interfaces, the boundary that separates two or more chemical compositions and/or phases of matter, alters basic chemical and physical properties including the thermodynamics of selectivity, transition states, and pathways of chemical reactions, nucleation events and phase growth, and kinetic barriers and mechanisms for mass transport and heat transport. While progress has been made in advancing more interface‐sensitive experimental approaches, their interpretation requires new theoretical methods and models that in turn can further elaborate on the microscopic physics that make interfacial chemistry so unique compared to the bulk phase. In this review, we describe some of the most recent theoretical efforts in modeling interfaces, and what has been learned about the transport and chemical transformations that occur at the air–liquid and solid–liquid interfaces. This article is categorized under: Structure and Mechanism > Reaction Mechanisms and Catalysis Structure and Mechanism > Computational Materials Science Software > Quantum Chemistry Software > Simulation Methods

Hao, Hongxia↗

Alchemy: A Model-Based Approach for 2D to 3D Autonomous Nuclear System Design

Engineering design of nuclear power plant (NPP) piping and equipment systems frequently bypasses crucial 2D system planning, instead moving straight to 3D modeling. This often leads to designs that exceed building envelope constraints, forcing expensive and time-consuming redesigns. When 2D modeling is employed, it typically involves labor-intensive manual workflows that convert 2D drawings into 3D models, resulting in inefficiencies and errors across design iterations. These workflows further suffer from poor software interoperability and dependence on proprietary software ecosystems, thereby contributing to schedule delays and cost overruns. This paper presents Alchemy, an autonomous framework that transforms 2D system definitions into Industry Foundation Classes (IFC)-compliant 3D building information models (BIMs) for expediting nuclear facility design at the conceptual preliminary phase. Using a model-based approach, the framework treats the 2D system diagram as the central reference model employed to automatically generate all subsequent outputs, ensuring consistency between the system definition and the resulting physical design. A web-based interface enables engineers to define hierarchical system topologies including associated equipment, geometric properties, and connectivity requirements. A two-phase equipment layout optimization algorithm automatically computes collision-free spatial configurations within predefined building envelopes. An artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted pipe routing module then generates orthogonal, collision-free routing paths, allowing the user to select either an A* search-based method or an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO)-based method. All outputs are authored natively in IFC format, relying on open-source technologies and standardized formats in order to ensure extensibility and eliminate proprietary software dependencies. The proposed framework is validated on two representative pressurized-water reactor (PWR)-based case studies, for which it autonomously generates IFC-compliant 3D models in minutes, drastically reducing workflows that typically require hours of manual effort. The generated model demonstrates topologically correct equipment placement, physically plausible spatial relationships, and collision-free pipe routing consistent with known PWR loop configurations. This work represents a foundational step toward digital engineering for nuclear facility preliminary design, with future ongoing development targeting design code compliance and expanded system complexity.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Non-Destructive, Three-Dimensional Imaging of Processes in the Rhizosphere Utilizing High Energy Photons

Soil structure, which can be described as the aggregation and distribution of pore spaces, regulates carbon, nutrient, and water cycling across the Earth system. Yet the inability to make quantitative, dynamic, in situ measurements of soil structure and rhizosphere carbon flow has prevented meaningful incorporation of soil structural processes into Earth System Models (ESMs). The key limitations are: (i) Lack of scale integration between micron-scale soil structure and ecosystem-scale models, (ii) Poor functional linkage between soil structural properties and biogeochemical processes, and (iii) Absence of dynamic 3D measurements of rhizosphere structural changes and carbon transformations. To address these challenges, we developed a new integrated positron emission tomography (PET) - microcomputed tomography (CT) imaging platform that enables the first 4D (spatial 3D and time), non-invasive, quantitative imaging of carbon allocation and rhizosphere structural dynamics in living plants and intact soils. The system combines: • Rhizo-PET (R-PET): a high-resolution positron emission tomography scanner optimized for 11 CO 2 tracing in plant roots. • a-Se micro-CT: a high-contrast, high-spatial resolution CT system based on amorphous selenium (a-Se) direct conversion technology, enabling micron-scale visualization of soil structure and root–soil interfaces. Together, these advances allow us to quantify how carbon exudates move, transform, and stabilize within the rhizosphere, directly informing missing processes in BER-relevant carbon cycle models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Passband Signal Detection at the Edge

Algorithms for radio frequency (RF) spectrum awareness need to be compatible with edge hardware to be practical for many applications. We developed a signal detection and classification model for the ZCU111 RF System-on-a-Chip (RFSoC) that operates on the fast Fourier transform of passband RF data. The system can detect and classify multiple signals of interest and display the predictions in real-time. The model consists of a modified ConvNeXt backbone and YOLOv3 head to operate on the Deep Learning Processing Unit on the RFSoC. We gathered datasets for training and testing by using a software defined radio to transmit example signals of Wi-Fi 802.11 b/g, Wi-Fi 802.11 n, FM Radio, LTE and LTE-M. By leveraging multiple inputs on the RFSoC frontend, the datasets span up to 4 GHz of bandwidth. The models showed high performance in classification accuracy, center frequency error, bandwidth error, and detection accuracy for both single and multi-signal datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling of the high column density systems in the Lyman-Alpha forest

The Lyman-α forests observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars can be used as a tracer of the cosmological matter density to study baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the Alcock-Paczynski effect. Extraction of cosmological information from these studies requires modeling of the forest correlations. While the models depend most importantly on the bias parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM), they also depend on the numbers and characteristics of high-column-density systems (HCDs) ranging from Lyman-limit systems with column densities log N HI /1cm -2 > 17 to damped Lyman-α systems (DLAs) with log N HI /1cm -2 > 20.2. These HCDs introduce broad damped absorption characteristic of a Voigt profile. Consequently they imprint a component on the power spectrum whose modes in the radial direction are suppressed, leading to a scale-dependent bias. Using mock data sets of known HCD content, we test a model that describes this effect in terms of the distribution of column densities of HCDs, the Fourier transforms of their Voigt profiles and the bias of the halos containing the HCDs. Our results show that this physically well-motivated model describes the effects of HCDs with an accuracy comparable to that of the ad-hoc models used in published forest analyses. We also discuss the problems of applying the model to real data, where the HCD content and their bias is uncertain.

Lyman alpha forest↗

Mitigating spectral bias in neural operators via high-frequency scaling for physical systems

Neural operators have emerged as powerful surrogates for modeling complex physical problems. However, they suffer from spectral bias making them oblivious to high-frequency modes, which are present in multiscale physical systems. Therefore, they tend to produce over-smoothed solutions, which is particularly problematic in modeling turbulence and for systems with intricate patterns and sharp gradients such as multi-phase flow systems. In this work, we introduce a new approach named high-frequency scaling (HFS) to mitigate spectral bias in convolutional-based neural operators. By integrating HFS with proper variants of UNet, we demonstrate a higher prediction accuracy by mitigating spectral bias in single and two-phase flow problems. Unlike Fourierbased techniques, HFS is directly applied to the latent space, thus eliminating the computational cost associated with the Fourier transform. Additionally, we investigate alternative spectral bias mitigation through a diffusion model conditioned on neural operators. While the diffusion model integrated with the standard neural operator may still suffer from significant errors, these errors are substantially reduced when the diffusion model is integrated with a HFS-enhanced neural operator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ten questions concerning Large Language Models (LLMs) for building applications

Large Language Models (LLMs) are emerging as powerful AI tools capable of transforming how building information is collected, processed, analyzed, and applied across diverse research areas. Their capabilities can help building operators, facility managers and other stakeholders such as designers, architects and engineers by providing actionable insights for decision-making across planning, construction, operations, and maintenance of buildings and facilities. This paper explores ten key questions concerning the role of LLMs in shaping sustainable, intelligent, and human-centric buildings. From fundamental definitions to advanced applications, we examine how LLMs facilitate decision-making across the life cycle of buildings and energy systems. LLMs can enhance life cycle assessments (LCA), building energy simulations, and real-time data integration, empowering more efficient and adaptive human-AI environments. They can also contribute to streamlining regulatory compliance, improving post-occupancy evaluations, and fostering more inclusive and participatory design processes. Additionally, this paper addresses the ethical challenges posed by LLMs, such as bias, data privacy, and environmental impacts, and explores their potentials in advancing intelligent digital twins (DT) for ongoing building operations and maintenance. Built upon our applied research using LLMs and the review of tools, datasets, and research gaps, we provide a forward-looking perspective on how LLMs can drive innovation, collaboration, and productivity in the built environment while supporting ethical and effective implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Combining model-based and model-free methods for stochastic control of distributed energy resources

Modern distribution systems are experiencing a fast transformation with the growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Along with the economic and environmental benefits of DERs, challenges arise to address the uncertainties caused by their inherent volatility. If properly coordinated, however, DERs have the potential to provide the controllability that grid operators need. Here, we propose a hierarchical control framework that combines the model-based and model-free methods for stochastic DER control in distribution systems. The upper-level scheduler considers a chance-constrained optimal power flow problem (model-based) that schedules DER setpoints to minimize the operational cost and maintain the operating reserve. The lower-level distributed DER controllers absorb real-time disturbances and uncertainties using the extremum seeking control (model-free) to achieve grid objectives. The combination of model-based and model-free methods allows us to take the advantages of both methods to effectively manage the uncertainty in distribution systems. The proposed work is demonstrated on the IEEE 13-node feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Direct measurement of storage and loss behavior in AFM force–distance experiments using the modified Fourier transformation

Force–distance curve experiments are commonly performed in atomic force microscopy (AFM) to obtain the viscoelastic characteristics of materials, such as the storage and loss moduli or compliances. The classic methods used to obtain these characteristics consist of fitting a viscoelastic material model to the experimentally obtained AFM data. Here, we demonstrate a new method that utilizes the modified discrete Fourier transform to approximate the storage and loss behavior of a material directly from the data, without the need for a fit. Additionally, one may still fit a model to the resulting storage and loss behavior if a parameterized description of the material is desired. In contrast to fitting the data to a model chosen a priori, departing from a model-free description of the material's frequency behavior guides the selection of the model, such that the user may choose the one that is most appropriate for the particular material under study. To this end, we also include modified Fourier domain descriptions of commonly used viscoelastic models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multiscale Modeling and Experimental Insights into High-Temperature Soil Biodegradation Dynamics of Semi-Crystalline Poly(Lactic Acid) Nonwoven Fabrics

This study investigates the biodegradation of semi-crystalline poly(lactic acid) (PLA) nonwovens (NWs) in soil at 58 °C using both experimental and mathematical modeling approaches. The model utilizes a system of parabolic diffusion-reaction partial differential equations (PDEs) to elucidate chemical transformations over time and in space. It accounts for phenomena such as the diffusion of water and lactic acid monomers through the polymer matrix and into the surrounding soil, along with their microbial breakdown. It also accounts for the initial PLA crystallinity and predicts its evolution in time. The model is solved numerically for a single filament, and the results were used to shed light on PLA NW transformations observed in soil over a 180-day incubation period. Various characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and Raman spectroscopy, were employed to assess morphological changes, crystallinity, and molecular changes in the NWs throughout the experiment. By comparing the experimental data with the model predictions, the hydrolysis rate coefficient was found to be 3.37 × 10 -7 s -1 , while the rate of microbial degradation of lactic acid monomers was faster, of the order of 9.63 × 10 -7 s -1 . The findings highlight the significant role of crystallinity in the biodegradation process. The PLA degradation ceases when no amorphous material remains, and the crystallinity reaches 0.8, as observed in the experiments by day 120. Furthermore, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of PLA biodegradation dynamics and offers insights for effectively managing biodegradable materials in environmental settings.

Diffusion−reaction modeling↗

Bioelectrochemical reactor to manage anthropogenic sulfate pollution for freshwater ecosystems: Mathematical modeling and experimental validation

Anthropogenic sulfate loading into otherwise low-sulfate freshwater systems can cause significant ecological consequences as a biogeochemical stressor. To address this challenge, in situ bioremediation technologies have been developed to leverage naturally occurring microorganisms that transform sulfate into sulfide rather than implementing resource-intensive physio-chemical processes. However, bioremediation technologies often require the supply of electron donors to facilitate biological sulfate reduction. Bioelectrochemical systems (BES) can be an alternative approach for supplying molecular hydrogen as an electron donor for sulfate-reducing bacteria through water electrolysis. Although the fundamental mechanisms behind BESs have been studied, limited research has evaluated the design and operational parameters of treatment systems when developing BESs on a scale relevant to environmental systems. Further, this study aimed to develop an application-based mathematical model to evaluate the performance of BESs across a range of reactor configurations and operational modes. The model was based on sulfate transformation by hydrogenotrophic sulfate-reducing bacteria coupled with the recovery of solid iron sulfide species formed by the oxidative dissolution of dissolved ferrous iron from a stainless steel anode. Sulfate removal closely corresponded to the rate of electrolytic hydrogen production and hydraulic residence time but was less sensitive to specific microbial rate constants. The mathematical model results were compared to experimental data from a pilot-scale BES tested with nonacidic mine drainage as a case study. The close agreement between the mathematical model and the pilot-scale BES experiment highlights the efficacy of using a mathematical model as a tool to develop a conceptual design of a scaled-up treatment system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Illuminating the pathways to carbon liberation: a systems approach to characterizing the consequential unknowns of carbon transformation and loss from thawing permafrost peatlands (Final Report)

The IsoGenie3 Project delivered new systems-level insights into carbon cycling in thawing permafrost landscapes, with an emphasis on methane and carbon dioxide emissions. From >200 samples from the site collected over a decade, co-analyzed for geochemistry and microbiology, the team recovered ~1,500 assembled microbial genomes and ~1,900 viral population genomes, revealing appreciable genetic novelty - from a new highly abundant bacterial phylum, to novel methane consumers and their activities, to rampant viral novelty. IsoGenie3 linked these organisms to carbon compound transformations (which define the cycling of organic matter in soils, and the loss of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane), and saw that the microbes at each stage of permafrost thaw had different genetic potential to degrade categories of compounds, expressed that genetic potential differently, and actually transformed carbon compounds into greenhouse gases in different ways. IsoGenie 3 identified that some of the thaw-stage differences were due to plant-microbiome relationships; the plant species across the thaw gradient contributed different carbon compounds into the soil, and hosted distinct microbiota (differing among parts of plants as well as species). Lastly, microbes in the saturated post-thaw conditions appeared likely to contribute to the mobilization and toxification of mercury released during thaw. In parallel with ongoing field sampling and analysis, hypotheses arising from field observations were tested via lab incubation experiments. When communities are taken out of their native habitats, they behave differently, and the team first rigorously quantified the magnitude of this effect on microbiome composition and functional capacity, organic matter composition, and gas production; overall the main system processes were maintained in the lab incubations under the conditions tested. Further, the microbial data could inform geochemical reaction network models of those processes. Then, the team ran experiments with additions of compounds, varying temperature, and “live” vs. “dead” peat (the latter having been gamma irradiated, with a few additional variants to control for methodological artifacts). From these, we (a) determined the importance of plant-derived soluble phenolic compounds in bogs’ extraordinary recalcitrance of organic matter, and carbon gas emissions skewed to carbon dioxide; (b) proposed an abiotic ‘tanning’ mechanism, which could contribute to Sphagnum’s inhibitory effect on anaerobic decomposition through alteration of N availability. IsoGenie3 illuminated longer-term and landscape-scale interactions of permafrost thaw and carbon cycling, advancing knowledge of the drivers of methane dynamics not only across in the permafrost-associated peatland (where hydrology and plant communities dictate microbiomes) but also their interconnected lakes (where sediment carbon quality and resident microbiota are determined by position within lake, and lake features). By leveraging observations of site methane dynamics extending well before this project, the team was able to construct a 44-year portrait of the interplay of permafrost thaw, hydrology, vegetation dynamics, and carbon gas emissions, and the doubling of the fully-thawed fens over this time. From the detailed study of this focal site, IsoGenie3 also aimed to improve model representation of these kinds of sites and processes. To improve predictions of methane transformations, we incorporated acetate and isotope dynamics into the ‘DNDC’ biogeochemistry model. In addition, recovered genomes were grouped into ‘functional groups’, i.e. the genomes that perform a specific function of interest, then used to parameterize maximum growth rate and optimum growth temperature (via signatures in their sequence composition) for the BioCrunch model. The BioCrunch model was then in turn used to test the impact of increasing functional resolution of the microbes, on the carbon gas emissions. Lastly for modeling, the ecosys model was parameterized from the microbial and other data, and used to evaluate drivers of e.g. change in methane emissions. Finally, this project also led to the development of a range of new methods and tools, a new metric of organic matter decomposability, as well as a graph-database solution to multidisciplinary data storage and querying. This project’s ongoing analyses at our focal site also contributed to broader advancements in understanding elements of genetic plasticity and methane metabolism, climate change microbiology and community assembly, global peatland geochemistry and Arctic lakes’ roles in climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗