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DOE OSTI2018

Probing gravity with a joint analysis of galaxy and CMB lensing and SDSS spectroscopy

We present measurements of EG, a probe of gravity from large-scale structure, using BOSS LOWZ and CMASS spectroscopic samples, with lensing measurements from SDSS (galaxy lensing) and Planck (CMB lensing). Using SDSS lensing and the BOSS LOWZ sample, we measure ⟨ E G ⟩ = 0.40 − 0.04 + 0.05 (stat), ±0.026 (systematic), consistent with the predicted value from the Planck ΛCDM model, EG=0.46. Using CMB lensing, we measure ⟨ E G ⟩ = 0.46 − 0.09 + 0.08 (stat) for LOWZ (statistically consistent with galaxy lensing and Planck predictions) and ⟨ E G ⟩ = 0.39 − 0.05 + 0.05 (stat) for the CMASS sample, consistent with the Planck prediction of E G =0.40 given the higher redshift of the sample. We also study the redshift evolution of E G by splitting the LOWZ sample into two samples based on redshift, with results being consistent with model predictions. We estimate systematic uncertainties on the above $\langle$E G $\rangle$ numbers to be ~6% (when using galaxy-galaxy lensing) or ~3% (when using CMB lensing), subdominant to the quoted statistical errors. These systematic error budgets are dominated by observational systematics in galaxy-galaxy lensing and by theoretical modeling uncertainties, respectively. We do not estimate observational systematics in galaxy-CMB lensing cros-correlations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-613: Dosimetric Consequences of Systematic MLC Leaf Positioning Errors

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the dosimetric consequences of systematic MLC leaf positioning errors for clinical IMRT patient plans so as to establish detection tolerances for quality assurance programs. Materials and Methods: Dosimetric consequences were simulated by extracting mlc delivery instructions from the TPS, altering the file by the specified error, reloading the delivery instructions into the TPS, recomputing dose, and extracting dose-volume metrics for one head-andneck and one prostate patient. Machine error was simulated by offsetting MLC leaves in Pinnacle in a systematic way. Three different algorithms were followed for these systematic offsets, and are as follows: a systematic sequential one-leaf offset (one leaf offset in one segment per beam), a systematic uniform one-leaf offset (same one leaf offset per segment per beam) and a systematic offset of a given number of leaves picked uniformly at random from a given number of segments (5 out of 10 total). Dose to the PTV and normal tissue was simulated. Results: A systematic 5 mm offset of 1 leaf for all delivery segments of all beams resulted in a maximum PTV D98 deviation of 1%. Results showed very low dose error in all reasonably possible machine configurations, rare or otherwise, which could be simulated. Very low error in dose to PTV and OARs was shown in all possible cases of one leaf per beam per segment being offset (<1%), or that of only one leaf per beam being offset (<.2%). The errors resulting from a high number of adjacent leaves (maximum of 5 out of 60 total leaf-pairs) being simultaneously offset in many (5) of the control points (total 10–18 in all beams) per beam, in both the PTV and the OARs analyzed, were similarly low (<2–3%). Conclusions: The above results show that patient shifts and anatomical changes are the main source of errors in dose delivered, not machine delivery. These two sources of error are “visually complementary” and uncorrelated (albeit not additive in the final error) and one can easily incorporate error resulting from machine delivery in an error model based purely on tumor motion.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Exploring Milkyway Halo Substructures with Large-Area Sky Surveys

Over the last two decades, our understanding of the Milky Way has been improved thanks to large data sets arising from large-area digital sky surveys. The stellar halo is now known to be inhabited by a variety of spatial and kinematic stellar substructures, including stellar streams and stellar clouds, all of which are predicted by hierarchical Lambda Cold Dark Matter models of galaxy formation. In this dissertation, we first present the analysis of spectroscopic observations of individual stars from the two candidate structures discovered using an M-giant catalog from the Two Micron All-Sky Survey. The follow-up observations show that one of the candidates is a genuine structure which might be associated with the Galactic Anticenter Stellar Structure, while the other one is a false detection due to the systematic photometric errors in the survey or dust extinction in low Galactic latitudes. We then presented the discovery of an excess of main sequence turn-off stars in the direction of the constellations of Eridanus and Phoenix from the first-year data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) – a five-year, 5,000 deg2 optical imaging survey in the Southern Hemisphere. The Eridanus-Phoenix (EriPhe) overdensity is centered around l ~ 285° and b ~ -60° and the Poisson significance of the detection is at least 9σ. The EriPhe overdensity has a cloud-like morphology and the extent is at least ~ 4 kpc by ~ 3 kpc in projection, with a heliocentric distance of about d ~ 16 kpc. The EriPhe overdensity is morphologically similar to the previously-discovered Virgo overdensity and Hercules-Aquila cloud. These three overdensities lie along a polar plane separated by ~ 120° and may share a common origin. In addition to the scientific discoveries, we also present the work to improve the photometric calibration in DES using auxiliary calibration systems, since the photometric errors can cause false detection in first the halo substructure. We present a detailed description of the two auxiliary calibration systems built at Texas A&M University. We then discuss how the auxiliary systems in DES can be used to improve the photometric calibration of the systematic chromatic errors – source color-dependent systematic errors that are caused by variations in the wavelength dependence of the atmospheric transmission and the instrumental throughput.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Absolute beam emittance measurements at RHIC using ionization profile monitors

In the past, comparisons between emittance measurements obtained using ionization profile monitors, Vernier scans (using as input the measured rates from the zero degree counters, or ZDCs), the polarimeters and the Schottky detectors evidenced significant variations of up to 100%. In this report we present studies of the RHIC ionization profile monitors (IPMs). After identifying and correcting for two systematic instrumental errors in the beam size measurements, we present experimental results showing that the remaining dominant error in beam emittance measurements at RHIC using the IPMs was imprecise knowledge of the local beta functions. After removal of the systematic errors and implementation of measured beta functions, precise emittance measurements result. Also, consistency between the emittances measured by the IPMs and those derived from the ZDCs was demonstrated.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-47: Inherent Uncertainty in the Positional Shifts Determined by a Volumetric Cone Beam Imaging System

Purpose: To quantify inherent uncertainty associated with a volumetric imaging system in its determination of positional shifts. Methods: The study was performed on an Elekta Axesse™ linac’s XVI cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) system. A CT image data set of a Penta- Guide phantom was used as reference image by placing isocenter at the center of the phantom.The phantom was placed arbitrarily on the couch close to isocenter and CBCT images were obtained. The CBCT dataset was matched with the reference image using XVI software and the shifts were determined in 6-dimensions. Without moving the phantom, this process was repeated 20 times consecutively within 30 minutes on a single day. Mean shifts and their standard deviations in all 6-dimensions were determined for all the 20 instances of imaging. For any given day, the first set of shifts obtained was kept as reference and the deviations of the subsequent 19 sets from the reference set were scored. Mean differences and their standard deviations were determined. In this way, data were obtained for 30 consecutive working days. Results: Tabulating the mean deviations and their standard deviations observed on each day for the 30 measurement days, systematic and random errors in the determination of shifts by XVI software were calculated. The systematic errors were found to be 0.03, 0.04 and 0.03 mm while random errors were 0.05, 0.06 and 0.06 mm in lateral, craniocaudal and anterio-posterior directions respectively. For rotational shifts, the systematic errors were 0.02°, 0.03° and 0.03° and random errors were 0.06°, 0.05° and 0.05° in pitch, roll and yaw directions respectively. Conclusion: The inherent uncertainties in every image guidance system should be assessed and baseline values established at the time of its commissioning. These shall be periodically tested as part of the QA protocol.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-F-BRD-07: Empirical Derivation of Site-Specific Margin Formulas

Purpose: To empirically derive margin formulas from existing clinical radiotherapy plans accounting for respiratory motion and setup uncertainties. Methods: We simulated realistic treatment scenarios, including respiratory motion and setup errors. Individual probability density functions (PDF) from respiratory data were used to simulate respiratory motion. Random (σ) and systematic (Σ) setup errors were modeled as Gaussian distributions. One-dimensional dose profiles were extracted from existing radiotherapy plans and convolved with respiratory PDFs and random error distributions to produce blurred dose profiles. Each blurred dose profile was then shifted 1000 times by randomly sampling the simulated systematic error distribution. Margins were determined from the distance between the simulated treatment and the original 95% isodose level. An equation was fit for each (σ, Σ) combination to derive margin formulas for 90% of the population receiving 95% dose. This methodology can be applied to different tumor sites. Here, dose profiles were extracted from partial breast 3DCRT plans in the anterior-posterior (AP) and superior-inferior (SI) directions. Respiratory motion data was from healthy volunteers, and a clinically relevant range of random and systematic setup errors (standard deviations 1 – 4 mm) was determined from the literature. Results: The PBI margin formulas in the AP and SI directions for 95% dose coverage for 90% of the population were very similar: M= 0.68σ + 1.54Σ and M= 0.72σ + 1.50Σ, respectively. Systematic setup errors had the largest influence on required margin size, whereas realistic respiratory amplitude had minimal impact. The derived formulas resulted in a smaller systematic component than commonly-used theoretical margin recipes. Conclusion: We have demonstrated a method to derive empirical margin formulas from existing patient radiotherapy plans, incorporating realistic respiratory motion and appropriate ranges of random and systematic error. Site-specific margin formulas may be better suited to patient populations than theoretically derived, ideal geometry general margin formulas.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-CAMPUS-J-05: Quantitative Investigation of Random and Systematic Uncertainties From Hardware and Software Components in the Frameless 6DBrainLAB ExacTrac System

Purpose: To evaluate setup accuracy and quantify individual systematic and random errors for the various hardware and software components of the frameless 6D-BrainLAB ExacTrac system. Methods: 35 patients with cranial lesions, some with multiple isocenters (50 total lesions treated in 1, 3, 5 fractions), were investigated. All patients were simulated with a rigid head-and-neck mask and the BrainLAB localizer. CT images were transferred to the IPLAN treatment planning system where optimized plans were generated using stereotactic reference frame based on the localizer. The patients were setup initially with infrared (IR) positioning ExacTrac system. Stereoscopic X-ray images (XC: X-ray Correction) were registered to their corresponding digitally-reconstructed-radiographs, based on bony anatomy matching, to calculate 6D-translational and rotational (Lateral, Longitudinal, Vertical, Pitch, Roll, Yaw) shifts. XC combines systematic errors of the mask, localizer, image registration, frame, and IR. If shifts were below tolerance (0.7 mm translational and 1 degree rotational), treatment was initiated; otherwise corrections were applied and additional X-rays were acquired to verify patient position (XV: X-ray Verification). Statistical analysis was used to extract systematic and random errors of the different components of the 6D-ExacTrac system and evaluate the cumulative setup accuracy. Results: Mask systematic errors (translational; rotational) were the largest and varied from one patient to another in the range (−15 to 4mm; −2.5 to 2.5degree) obtained from mean of XC for each patient. Setup uncertainty in IR positioning (0.97,2.47,1.62mm;0.65,0.84,0.96degree) was extracted from standard-deviation of XC. Combined systematic errors of the frame and localizer (0.32,−0.42,−1.21mm; −0.27,0.34,0.26degree) was extracted from mean of means of XC distributions. Final patient setup uncertainty was obtained from the standard deviations of XV (0.57,0.77,0.67mm,0.39,0.35,0.30degree). Conclusion: Statistical analysis was used to calculate cumulative and individual systematic errors from the different hardware and software components of the 6D-ExacTrac-system. Patients were treated with cumulative errors (<1mm,<1degree) with XV image guidance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Automated Quantitative Analysis of Extended Irradiation Defects - Dislocations, Voids and Precipitates in Neutron Irradiated HT-9 Steel

Structural alloys that make up the core components of nuclear reactors are exposed to radiation that can substantially alter the microstructure and mechanical properties of the material. Irradiation can cause the formation of extended defects including dislocation line and loops, voids and various types of precipitates. To understand the irradiation effects, it is critical to characterize these defects individually and collectively to quantify how they evolve throughout irradiation stages. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is a standard tool for providing extensive size, number density and spatial distribution of extended irradiation defects, however, manual measurement of defect size and number density requires time-intensive effort to analyze enough defects that provide a statistically meaningful result and are prone to errors of subjectivity. In this work, we developed a set of MATLAB algorithms offering robust and automated identification and quantification of extended irradiation defects like dislocation lines, voids and precipitates commonly observed in neutron irradiated cladding alloys [1]. Using a neutron-irradiated HT-9 martensitic alloy irradiated at 412°C to 111.8 dpa, we demonstrate the capability of these algorithms for quantitative defect analysis. Figure 1 presents defect images of the HT-9 using an advanced diffraction contrast imaging scanning transmission electron microscopy (DCI STEM) that suppresses bend contours and provides better defect contrast compared to conventional TEM [2]. The first step of defect analysis is defect identification, a process that can be digitally achieved by contrast thresholding (for simple defect contrast) and by machine learning computer vision for defect semantic segmentation [3]. Here, labeled binary defect images (Figures 2a and 2c) were used. For dislocation density quantification, we employed an optimized circular-grid intersection method first introduced by Dr. John Steeds [4]. This method is shown in Figures 2a and 2b, where the number of intersections of dislocation lines with circular traces was measured. This produces an unbiased sampling of dislocation lines, regardless of their orientation. This process was optimized with automated digital intersection number and grid length registration. Interestingly, it was found that a relatively large number of circles in a set circular gird is was needed to produce an invariant result (Figure 2b), with a low systematic measurement error. This demonstrates the main advantage of computer-based defect analysis, in performing repetitive operations quickly with a reduced systematic error. For the quantitative analysis of voids and precipitates a challenge encountered with automated defect analysis is feature overlap, particularly when the density of voids/precipitates is high. To mitigate this problem, as shown in Figure 2d, we modified the popular circular Hough transformation and treated ‘circular shape’ as the particle descriptor for voids/precipitates, efficiently resolving the overlapping particles. In summary, this automated digital quantification together with machine learning enabled defect identification [3] opens new opportunities for standardizing the characterization workflow for quantitative analysis of extended irradiation defects.

Sainju, Rajat↗

DOE OSTI2014

WE-D-18A-01: Evaluation of Three Commercial Metal Artifact Reduction Methods for CT Simulations in Radiation Therapy Treatment Planning

Purpose: To evaluate three commercial metal artifact reduction methods (MAR) in the context of radiation therapy treatment planning. Methods: Three MAR strategies were evaluated: Philips O-MAR, monochromatic imaging using Gemstone Spectral Imaging (GSI) dual energy CT, and monochromatic imaging with metal artifact reduction software (GSIMARs). The Gammex RMI 467 tissue characterization phantom with several metal rods and two anthropomorphic phantoms (pelvic phantom with hip prosthesis and head phantom with dental fillings), were scanned with and without (baseline) metals. Each MAR method was evaluated based on CT number accuracy, metal size accuracy, and reduction in the severity of streak artifacts. CT number difference maps between the baseline and metal scan images were calculated, and the severity of streak artifacts was quantified using the percentage of pixels with >40 HU error (“bad pixels”). Results: Philips O-MAR generally reduced HU errors in the RMI phantom. However, increased errors and induced artifacts were observed for lung materials. GSI monochromatic 70keV images generally showed similar HU errors as 120kVp imaging, while 140keV images reduced errors. GSI-MARs systematically reduced errors compared to GSI monochromatic imaging. All imaging techniques preserved the diameter of a stainless steel rod to within ±1.6mm (2 pixels). For the hip prosthesis, O-MAR reduced the average % bad pixels from 47% to 32%. For GSI 140keV imaging, the percent of bad pixels was reduced from 37% to 29% compared to 120kVp imaging, while GSI-MARs further reduced it to 12%. For the head phantom, none of the MAR methods were particularly successful. Conclusion: The three MAR methods all improve CT images for treatment planning to some degree, but none of them are globally effective for all conditions. The MAR methods were successful for large metal implants in a homogeneous environment (hip prosthesis) but were not successful for the more complicated case of dental artifacts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-AB-207B-03: A Computational Methodology for Determination of CTV-To-PTV Margins with Inter Fractional Shape Variations Based On a Statistical Point Distribution Model for Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Our assumption was that interfractional shape variations of target volumes could not be negligible for determination of clinical target volume (CTV)-to-planning target volume (PTV) margins. The aim of this study was to investigate this assumption as a simulation study by developing a computational framework of CTV-to-PTV margins with taking the interfractional shape variations into account based on point distribution model (PDM) Methods: The systematic and random errors for interfractional shape variations and translations of target volumes were evaluated for four types of CTV regions (only a prostate, a prostate plus proximal 1-cm seminal vesicles, a prostate plus proximal 2-cm seminal vesicles, and a prostate plus whole seminal vesicles). The CTV regions were delineated depending on prostate cancer risk groups on planning computed tomography (CT) and cone beam CT (CBCT) images of 73 fractions of 10 patients. The random and systematic errors for shape variations of CTV regions were derived from PDMs of CTV surfaces for all fractions of each patient. Systematic errors of shape variations of CTV regions were derived by comparing PDMs between planning CTV surfaces and average CTV surfaces. Finally, anisotropic CTV-to-PTV margins with shape variations in 6 directions (anterior, posterior, superior, inferior, right, and left) were computed by using a van Herk margin formula. Results: Differences between CTV-to-PTV margins with and without shape variations ranged from 0.7 to 1.7 mm in anterior direction, 1.0 to 2.8 mm in posterior direction, 0.8 to 2.8 mm in superior direction, 0.6 to 1.6 mm in inferior direction, 1.4 to 4.4 mm in right direction, and 1.3 to 5.2 mm in left direction. Conclusion: More than 1.0 mm additional margins were needed at least in 3 directions to guarantee CTV coverage due to shape variations. Therefore, shape variations should be taken into account for the determination of CTV-to-PTV margins.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Constraining the mass–richness relationship of redMaPPer clusters with angular clustering

The potential of using cluster clustering for calibrating the mass–richness relation of galaxy clusters has been recognized theoretically for over a decade. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of this technique to achieve high-precision mass calibration using redMaPPer clusters in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey North Galactic Cap. By including cross-correlations between several richness bins in our analysis, we significantly improve the statistical precision of our mass constraints. The amplitude of the mass–richness relation is constrained to 7 per cent statistical precision by our analysis. However, the error budget is systematics dominated, reaching a 19 per cent total error that is dominated by theoretical uncertainty in the bias–mass relation for dark matter haloes. We confirm the result from Miyatake et al. that the clustering amplitude of redMaPPer clusters depends on galaxy concentration as defined therein, and we provide additional evidence that this dependence cannot be sourced by mass dependences: some other effect must account for the observed variation in clustering amplitude with galaxy concentration. Assuming that the observed dependence of redMaPPer clustering on galaxy concentration is a form of assembly bias, we find that such effects introduce a systematic error on the amplitude of the mass–richness relation that is comparable to the error bar from statistical noise. Finally, the results presented here demonstrate the power of cluster clustering for mass calibration and cosmology provided the current theoretical systematics can be ameliorated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-03: Characterization of the Precision and Accuracy of a New, Preclinical, MRI-Guided Focused Ultrasound System for Image-Guided Interventions in Small-Bore, High-Field Magnets

Purpose: MRI-guided focused ultrasound (MRgFUS) has many potential and realized applications including controlled heating and localized drug delivery. The development of many of these applications requires extensive preclinical work, much of it in small animal models. The goal of this study is to characterize the spatial targeting accuracy and reproducibility of a preclinical high field MRgFUS system for thermal ablation and drug delivery applications. Methods: The RK300 (FUS Instruments, Toronto, Canada) is a motorized, 2-axis FUS positioning system suitable for small bore (72 mm), high-field MRI systems. The accuracy of the system was assessed in three ways. First, the precision of the system was assessed by sonicating regular grids of 5 mm squares on polystyrene plates and comparing the resulting focal dimples to the intended pattern, thereby assessing the reproducibility and precision of the motion control alone. Second, the targeting accuracy was assessed by imaging a polystyrene plate with randomly drilled holes and replicating the hole pattern by sonicating the observed hole locations on intact polystyrene plates and comparing the results. Third, the practicallyrealizable accuracy and precision were assessed by comparing the locations of transcranial, FUS-induced blood-brain-barrier disruption (BBBD) (observed through Gadolinium enhancement) to the intended targets in a retrospective analysis of animals sonicated for other experiments. Results: The evenly-spaced grids indicated that the precision was 0.11 +/− 0.05 mm. When image-guidance was included by targeting random locations, the accuracy was 0.5 +/− 0.2 mm. The effective accuracy in the four rodent brains assessed was 0.8 +/− 0.6 mm. In all cases, the error appeared normally distributed (p<0.05) in both orthogonal axes, though the left/right error was systematically greater than the superior/inferior error. Conclusions: The targeting accuracy of this device is sub-millimeter, suitable for many preclinical applications including focused drug delivery and thermal therapy. Funding support provided by Philips Healthcare.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-AB-209-01: A Monte Carlo-Based Method to Include Random Errors in Robust Optimization

Purpose: To develop an efficient method to implement random set-up errors and organ motion in robust optimization for proton therapy treatment planning. Methods: The plans were created with an in-house robust optimizer, coupled with a super-fast Monte Carlo (MC) engine (less than 1 minute for final dose). MC simulates random errors by shifting randomly the starting point of each particle, according to their probability distribution. Such strategy assumes a sufficient number of treatment fractions. Two strategies are presented: 1) Full robust optimization with beamlets that already include the effect of random errors and 2) Mixed robust optimization, where the nominal beamlets are involved but a correction term C modifies the prescription. Starting from C=0, the method alternates optimization of the spot weights with the nominal beamlets and updates of C, with C=Drandom-Dnominal and where Drandom results from a regular MC computation (without pre-computed beamlets) that simulates random errors. Updates of C can be triggered as often as necessary by running the MC engine with the last corrected values for the spot weights as input. The method was applied to lung and prostate cases. For both patients the range error was set to 3%, systematic setup error to 5mm and standard deviation for random errors to 5 mm. Comparison between full robust optimization and the mixed strategy (with 3 updates of C) is presented. Results: Target coverage was far below the clinical constraints (D{sub 95} > 95% of the prescribed dose) for plans where random errors were not simulated, especially for lung case. However, by using the proposed strategies the plans achieved a target coverage above clinical constraints. Conclusion: Full robust optimization gives better results than the mixed strategy, but the latter can be useful in cases where a MC engine is not available or too computationally intensive for beamlets calculation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

NuSTAR and Suzaku X-ray spectroscopy of NGC 4151: Evidence for reflection from the inner accretion disk

We present X-ray timing and spectral analyses of simultaneous 150 ks Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) and Suzaku X-ray observations of the Seyfert 1.5 galaxy NGC 4151. We disentangle the continuum emission, absorption, and reflection properties of the active galactic nucleus (AGN) by applying inner accretion disk reflection and absorption-dominated models. With a time-averaged spectral analysis, we find strong evidence for relativistic reflection from the inner accretion disk. We find that relativistic emission arises from a highly ionized inner accretion disk with a steep emissivity profile, which suggests an intense, compact illuminating source. We find a preliminary, near-maximal black hole spin a>0.9 accounting for statistical and systematic modeling errors. We find a relatively moderate reflection fraction with respect to predictions for the lamp post geometry, in which the illuminating corona is modeled as a point source. Through a time-resolved spectral analysis, we find that modest coronal and inner disk reflection (IDR) flux variation drives the spectral variability during the observations. We discuss various physical scenarios for the IDR model and we find that a compact corona is consistent with the observed features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Emulating climate extreme indices

We use simple pattern scaling and time-shift to emulate changes in a set of climate extreme indices under future scenarios, and evaluate the emulators' accuracy. We propose a metric for the error in emulation in the context of initial condition ensembles, to specifically characterize the role of internal variability in the emulation performance. Our metric separates systematic emulation errors from unavoidable discrepancies between emulated and target values due to internal variability. We compute the metricis at grid-point scale, and we show geographically resolved results, or aggregate them at global scale. We demonstrate the use of our error metric in the emulation of a suite of temperature and precipitation extreme indices. We test and compare simple pattern scaling and time-shift using a range of trajectories spanning targets inspired by the Paris agreement -- warming to 1.5C and 2.0C from the pre-industrial baseline -- and two of the longer-established trajectories, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. With this suite of scenarios we can test the effects on the performance of the size of the temperature gap between emulation origin and target. We find that for most indices emulation the dominant source of discrepancy is internal variability. For at least one index, however, counting exceedances of a high temperature threshold, significant portions of the globally aggregated discrepancy and its regional pattern originate from the systematic emulation error. This error exceeds internal variability of both the target and the emulated quantities in large coherent regions at low latitudes, and the explanation can be found in the differential behavior of temperature distributions across latitudes. The metric also highlights a fundamental difference in the two methods related to the simulation of internal variability, which is dampened significantly by simple pattern scaling. This aspect is of consequence when using these methods for specific applications, where preserving variability for uncertainty quantification is deemed important. With this study we offer our metric as a diagnostic tool, facilitating the formulation of scientific hypotheses on the reasons for the error. In the meantime, we show that for many impact relevant indices by now traditional emulation techniques can be accurate within the variations unavoidably introduced by internal variability, establishing the fundamental condition for using their emulation in impact modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Design improvement of the three-beam detector towards a precise long-range 6-degree of freedom motion sensor system

This paper presents performance enhancement of the three beam detector through design improvement based on the error analysis. The three-beam detector is a novel sensor system that measures six motions (i.e., 3 translations and 3 rotations) of a remote object with high accuracy by implementing three laser distance sensors and a vision sensor. In this paper, finite element analysis and parameter analysis are applied to the three-beam detector to analyze its structural frames and sensor configuration, respectively, in terms of sensing error. By virtue of such a systematic, quantitative error analysis, this research has successfully improved the performance of the three-beam detector and thoroughly validated through field tests that it can detect the 6-degree of freedom motions of a remote target at 30 m with an accuracy of 1.51 mm and 0.18° and precision of 0.38 mm and 0.13°.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2016

Addressing a systematic bias in carbon dioxide flux measurements with the EC150 and the IRGASON open-path gas analyzers

Across a global network of eddy covariance flux towers, two relatively new open-path infrared gas analyzers (IRGAs), the IRGASON and the EC150, are increasingly used to measure net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes (F c_OP ). Differences in net CO 2 fluxes derived from open- and closed-path IRGAs in general remain poorly constrained. In particular, the performance of the IRGASON and the EC150 for measuring F c_OP has not been characterized yet. These IRGAs measure CO 2 absorption, which is scaled with air temperature and pressure before converting it to instantaneous CO 2 density. This sensor-internal conversion is based on a slow-response thermistor air temperature measurement. In this paper, we test if the high-frequency temperature attenuation causes selectively systematic F c_OP errors that scale with kinematic temperature fluxes. First, we examine the relationship between wintertime F c_OP and kinematic temperature fluxes for eight northern ecosystems. Second, we investigate how residuals between F c_OP and CO 2 fluxes from co-located closed-path IRGAs (F C_CP ) are related to kinematic temperature fluxes for three different ecosystem types (i.e., boreal forest, grassland, and irrigated cropland). We find that kinematic temperature fluxes, but not mean ambient air temperatures or CO 2 flux regime, consistently determine the absolute magnitude of F c_OP errors. This selectively systematic bias causes the most pronounced relative F c_OP errors to occur when “true” CO 2 fluxes are low and kinematic temperature fluxes are high (e.g., northern ecosystems during the winter). The smallest relative errors occur during periods with large “true” CO 2 fluxes and low kinematic temperature fluxes. To address this bias, we replace the slow-response air temperature in the absorption-to-CO 2 density conversion with a fast-response air temperature derived from sonic anemometer measurements. The use of the fast-response air temperature improves the agreement between half-hourly F c_OP and F C_CP for all open- versus closed-path IRGA comparisons. Additionally, cumulative F c_OP and F c_CP sums are more comparable as differences drop from 63 %–13 % to 20 %–8 %. Finally, the improved IRGASON and EC150 performance enhances the ability and confidence to synthesize flux measurements across multiple sites including these two relatively new IRGAs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fabrication-conscious neural network based inverse design of single-material variable-index multilayer films

Multilayer films with continuously varying indices for each layer have attracted great deal of attention due to their superior optical, mechanical, and thermal properties. However, difficulties in fabrication have limited their application and study in scientific literature compared to multilayer films with fixed index layers. In this work we propose a neural network based inverse design technique enabled by a differentiable analytical solver for realistic design and fabrication of single material variable-index multilayer films. This approach generates multilayer films with excellent performance under ideal conditions. We furthermore address the issue of how to translate these ideal designs into practical useful devices which will naturally suffer from growth imperfections. By integrating simulated systematic and random errors just as a deposition tool would into the optimization process, we demonstrated that the same neural network that produced the ideal device can be retrained to produce designs compensating for systematic deposition errors. Furthermore, the proposed approach corrects for systematic errors even in the presence of random fabrication imperfections. The results outlined in this paper provide a practical and experimentally viable approach for the design of single material multilayer film stacks for an extremely wide variety of practical applications with high performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗