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At least 847 records · Page 47

Robust Control of Wave Energy Converters Using Unstructured Uncertainty

In the design of ocean wave energy converters, proper control design is essential to the maximization of the power generation performance for the device. However, in realistic applications, this control design must be undertaken in the presence of model uncertainty. This paper considers the use of robust control theory to optimize the nominal performance for a wave energy converter in stochastic waves, subject to the constraint that the controller be stability-robust to unstructured uncertainties. We formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimal control problem, in which the primary objective is the maximization of power generation for the nominal system, and the competing objective is the norm of the uncertainty input/output channel. This optimal control problem is nonconvex, and we therefore propose an iterative algorithm that can be used to arrive at a local optimal solution. This iterative approach employs the concept of Iterative Convex Overbounding, in the context of the classical Method of Centers. Here, the methodology is demonstrated on a model of a single, buoy- type wave energy converter.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Computational Modeling of Fluctuations in Energy and Metabolic Pathways of Methanogenic Archaea

The methanogenic archaea, anaerobic microbes that convert CO2 and H2 and/or other small organic fermentation products into methane, play an unusually large role in the global carbon cycle. As they perform the final step in the anaerobic breakdown of biomass, methanogens are a biogenic source of an estimated one billion tons methane each year. Depending on the location, produced methane can be considered as either a greenhouse gas (agricultural byproduct), sequestered carbon storage (methane hydrate deposits), or a potential energy source (organic wastewater treatment). These microbes therefore represent an important target for biotechnology applications. Computational models of methanogens with predictive power are useful aids in the adaptation of methanogenic systems, but need to connect processes of wide-ranging time and length scales. In this project, we developed several computational methodologies for modeling the dynamic behavior of entire cells that connects stochastic reaction-diffusion dynamics of individual biochemical pathways with genome-scale modeling of metabolic networks. While each of these techniques were in the realm of well-defined computational methods, here we integrated them to develop several entirely new approaches to systems biology. The first scientific aim of the project was to model how noise in a biochemical pathway propagates into cellular phenotypes. Genetic circuits have been optimized by evolution to regulate molecular processes despite stochastic noise, but the effect of such noise on a cellular biochemical networks is currently unknown. An integrated stochastic/systems model of Escherichia coli species was created to analyze how noise in protein expression gives—and therefore noise in metabolic fluxes—gives rise to multiple cellular phenotype in isogenic population. After the initial work developing and validating methods that allow characterization of the heterogeneity in the model organism E. coli, the project shifted toward investigations of the methanogen Methanosarcina acetivorans. By integrating an unprecedented transcriptomics dataset for growth of the methanogen on many substrates with an in silico model, heterogeneity in metabolic pathway usage and methane production were examined. This lent insight into the physiological requirements of the organism under different environmental conditions and uncovered the unique regulatory role that mRNA half-life has in shaping metabolic flux distributions in this organism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An agent-based blackboard system for multi-objective optimization

In the field of multi-objective optimization, there are a multitude of algorithms from which to choose. Each algorithm has strengths and weaknesses associated with the mechanics for finding the Pareto front. Recently, researchers have begun to examine how multi-agent environments can be used to help solve multi-objective optimization problems. In this work, we propose a multi-objective optimization algorithm based on a multi-agent blackboard system (MABS). The MABS framework allows for multiple agents to read and write pertinent optimization problem data to a central blackboard agent. Agents can stochastically search the design space, use previously discovered solutions to explore local optima, or update and prune the Pareto front. A centralized blackboard framework allows the optimization problem to be solved in a cohesive manner and permits stopping, restarting, or updating the optimization problem. The MABS framework is tested against three alternative optimization algorithms across a suite of engineering design problems and typically outperforms the other algorithms in discovering the Pareto front. A parallelizability study is performed where we find that the MABS is able to evaluate a set number of designs, which require an evaluation time ranging from 0 to 300 seconds, quicker than a traditional optimization algorithm: this fact becomes more apparent the longer it takes to evaluate a design. To provide context for the benefits provided by MABS, a real-world nuclear engineering design problem is examined. MABS is used to examine the placement of experiments in a nuclear reactor, where we are able to evaluate hundreds of configurations for experimental placement while maintaining a strict set of safety constraints.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Maine, R. E.↗

Development and Application of a Risk Analysis Toolkit for Plant Resources Optimization

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture) provided system/component health/cost data. This project development lives in cooperation with the Plant Health Management (PHM) project which focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate most relevant sources of risk. This year’s activities for the RIAM project focused on the continuation of schedule optimization algorithms developed in FY19. While in FY19 we focused on both deterministic and stochastic capital budgeting methods, in FY20 we moved forward by implementing two versions of schedule optimization methods. The first one reformulates the capital budgeting problem in a distributionally robust form which allows the user to rely on data directly rather than proposing a distribution from the data itself. The second version reformulates the capital budgeting explicitly using risk measures as variables to maximize/minimize. Lastly, we focused on the development of methods designed to identify the optimal maintenance posture based on the Pareto Frontier analysis. Rather than performing a tradeoff analysis (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), the Pareto Frontier analysis performs a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and have the analyst perform the task of imposing desired value and cost constraints). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Unified, Geometric Framework for Nonequilibrium Protocol Optimization

Controlling thermodynamic cycles to minimize the dissipated heat is a long-standing goal in thermodynamics, and more recently, a central challenge in stochastic thermodynamics for nanoscale systems. Here, we introduce a theoretical and computational framework for optimizing nonequilibrium control protocols that can transform a system between two distributions in a minimally dissipative fashion. These protocols optimally transport a system along paths through the space of probability distributions that minimize the dissipative cost of a transformation. Furthermore, we show that the thermodynamic metric—determined via a linear response approach—can be directly derived from the same objective function that is optimized in the optimal transport problem, thus providing a unified perspective on thermodynamic geometries. As a result, we investigate this unified geometric framework in two model systems and observe that our procedure for optimizing control protocols is robust beyond linear response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stochastic pre-event preparation for enhancing resilience of distribution systems

Extreme weather events are the common causes for power supply interruptions and power outages in electrical distribution systems. Improving the distribution system and enhancing its resilience is becoming crucial due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Preparation and allocation of multiple flexible resources, such as mobile resources, fuel resources, and labor resources before extreme weather events can mitigate the effects of extreme weather events and enhance the resilience of power distribution systems. Here, in this paper, a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) is proposed to optimize the preparation and resource allocation process for upcoming extreme weather events, which leads to faster and more efficient post-event restoration. The objective of the proposed two-stage SMILP is to maximize the served load and minimize the operating cost of flexible resources. The first stage in the optimization problem selects the amounts and locations of different resources. The second stage considers the operational constraints of the distribution system and repair crew scheduling constraints. The proposed stochastic pre-event preparation model is solved by a scenario decomposition method, Progressive Hedging (PH), to ease the computational complexity introduced by a large number of scenarios. Furthermore, to show the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on system resilience, three types of PV systems are considered during a power outage and the resilience improvements with different PV penetration levels are compared. Numerical results from simulations on a large-scale (more than 10,000 nodes) distribution feeder have been used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Day-Ahead Optimal Operation for Multi-Energy Residential Systems with Renewables

The intermittency and stochasticity nature of distributed renewable energy sources has introduced great challenges to the efficiency and security of energy distribution system operations. To address the negative impacts of intermittent renewable energy sources, this paper proposes here a day-ahead optimal operation strategy utilizing distributed energy resources based on the framework of the interconnected multi-energy system. First, a framework and mathematical models of multi-energy residential systems (MERS) are proposed. Based on the characteristics of residential energy distribution networks, the complex MERS models are reformulated to relieve the computational burden. Furthermore, the uncertainty factors such as renewable energy generation fluctuations and demand variations are handled by a reformulated chance con-strained programming technique. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated through a combined electric power and natural gas test system. Compared to similar models and methods in the existing literature, the proposed method performs better in terms of solution time, model scalability, and robustness in handling uncertainties.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimal disturbance suppression with application to wind shear

A novel quadratic cost function composed of stochastic and deterministic contributions is used in the design of a digital flight control system for a small commercial jet with wind shear present. The optimal output feedback control design is configured to suppress the effect of the wind shear disturbance and maintain closed loop stability. A new algorithm is presented for finding the feedback gain. A proportional-integral control design with wind shear suppression is tested in a detailed nonlinear simulation of a commercial jet during the landing approach.

Broussard, J. R.↗

Stochastic resonance during a polymer translocation process

We have studied the occurrence of stochastic resonance when a flexible polymer chain undergoes a single-file translocation through a nano-pore separating two spherical cavities, under a time-periodic external driving force. The translocation of the chain is controlled by a free energy barrier determined by chain length, pore length, pore-polymer interaction, and confinement inside the donor and receiver cavities. The external driving force is characterized by a frequency and amplitude. By combining the Fokker-Planck formalism for polymer translocation and a two-state model for stochastic resonance, we have derived analytical formulas for criteria for emergence of stochastic resonance during polymer translocation. We show that no stochastic resonance is possible if the free energy barrier for polymer translocation is purely entropic in nature. The polymer chain exhibits stochastic resonance only in the presence of an energy threshold in terms of polymer-pore interactions. Once stochastic resonance is feasible, the chain entropy controls the optimal synchronization conditions significantly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deterministic direct aperture optimization using multiphase piecewise constant segmentation

Purpose Direct aperture optimization (DAO) attempts to incorporate machine constraints in the inverse optimization to eliminate the post‐processing steps in fluence map optimization (FMO) that degrade plan quality. Current commercial DAO methods utilize a stochastic or greedy approach to search a small aperture solution space. In this study, we propose a novel deterministic direct aperture optimization that integrates the segmentation of fluence map in the optimization problem using the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah formulation. Methods The Mumford‐Shah based direct aperture optimization problem was formulated to include an L2‐norm dose fidelity term to penalize differences between the projected dose and the prescribed dose, an anisotropic total variation term to promote piecewise continuity in the fluence maps, and the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah function to partition the fluence into pairwise discrete segments. A proximal‐class, first‐order primal‐dual solver was implemented to solve the large scale optimization problem, and an alternating module strategy was implemented to update fluence and delivery segments. Three patients of varying complexity—one glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patient, one lung (LNG) patient, and one bilateral head and neck (H&N) patient with 3 PTVs—were selected to test the new DAO method. For each patient, 20 non‐coplanar beams were first selected using column generation, followed by the Mumford‐Shah based DAO (DAO MS ). For comparison, a popular and successful approach to DAO known as simulated annealing—a stochastic approach—was replicated. The simulated annealing DAO (DAO SA ) plans were then created using the same beam angles and maximum number of segments per beam. PTV coverage, PTV homogeneity , and OAR sparing were assessed for each plan. In addition, high dose spillage, defined as the 50% isodose volume divided by the tumor volume, as well as conformity, defined as the van't Riet conformation number, were evaluated. Results DAO MS achieved essentially the same OAR doses compared with the DAO SA plans for the GBM case. The average difference of OAR D max and D mean between the two plans were within 0.05% of the plan prescription dose. The lung case showed slightly improved critical structure sparing using the DAO MS approach, where the average OAR D max and D mean were reduced by 3.67% and 1.08%, respectively, of the prescription dose. The DAO MS plan substantially improved OAR dose sparing for the H&N patient, where the average OAR D max and D mean were reduced by over 10% of the prescription dose. The DAO MS and DAO SA plans were comparable for the GBM and LNG PTV coverage, while the DAO MS plan substantially improved the H&N PTV coverage, increasing D99 by 6.98% of the prescription dose. For the GBM and LNG patients, the DAO MS and DAO SA plans had comparable high dose spillage but slightly worse conformity with the DAO MS approach. For the H&N plan, DAO MS was considerably superior in high dose spillage and conformity to the DAO SA . The deterministic approach is able to solve the DAO problem substantially faster than the simulated annealing approach, with a 9.5‐ to 40‐fold decrease in total solve time, depending on the patient case. Conclusions A novel deterministic direct aperture optimization formulation was developed and evaluated. It combines fluence map optimization and the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah segmentation into a unified framework, and the resulting optimization problem can be solved efficiently. Compared to the widely and commercially used simulated annealing DAO approach, it showed comparable dosimetry behavior for simple plans, and substantially improved OAR sparing, PTV coverage, PTV homogeneity, high dose spillage, and conformity for the more complex head and neck plan.

Nguyen, Dan↗

Quantum-Compatible Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

Wildfire occurrences have been increasing for the past decade, leaving devastating traces across the world. In the recent efforts, remote sensing and airborne missions have been utilized to better understand and manage wildfires. This has resulted in an exponential increase in volume of remote sensing data, which has pushed the need for intelligent automation of data extraction for wildfire studies. Machine learning offers accurate automation in detecting such natural anomalies and enable decision-makers to take actions in a timely manner. Recent advances in machine learning algorithms, namely probabilistic generative methods, allow researchers and decisionmakers to step beyond detection and study “what-if” scenarios for wildfire occurrences. Additionally, they offer better imitations to the stochastic behavior of nature, and wildfire events. However, optimizing the performance of these probabilistic generative models is a computationally expensive process, specially using digital computers. On the other hand, quantum computers have recently shown a promise to reduce computationally costly training of such models and provide performance improvements. There is a body of research investigating the potential for improved machine learning methods in which key operations are performed on a quantum computer. In this study, we propose a probabilistic image-toimage segmentation approach combining a very well-known segmentation method, U-NET, with a Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) to not only detect wildfires but also describe the stochasticity of the phenomenon and be capable of running “what-if” scenarios. Our proposed model is compatible with training on quantum computers, which results in a quantum-assisted image-to-image segmentation approach and can be used to benchmark the potential benefit of quantum computing over the classical one.

quantum↗

Switch Opening and Exchange Method for Stochastic Distribution Network Reconfiguration

The purpose of distribution network reconfiguration (DNR) is to determine the optimal topology of an electricity distribution network, which is an efficient measure to reduce network power losses. Electricity load demand and photovoltaic (PV) output are uncertain and vary with time of day, and will affect the optimal network topology. Single-hour deterministic DNR is incapable of handling this uncertainty and variability. Therefore, this paper proposes to solve a multi-hour stochastic DNR (SDNR). Existing solution methods for DNR are either inaccurate or excessively time-consuming, and are therefore incapable of solving multi-hour SDNRs for large distribution networks. In this regard, a switch opening and exchange (SOE) method is proposed. Starting from a looped network with all switches closed, the SOE consists of three steps. The first step is to sequentially open the switches until all of the loops are opened. The second and third steps modify the status of branches obtained in the first step to obtain better radial topologies. Five test systems are used to validate the accuracy and fast solution speed of the SOE and the superiority of multi-hour SDNR over single-hour deterministic DNR.

distribution network reconfiguration↗

Algorithmic Improvements for Portable Event-Based Monte Carlo Transport Using the Nvidia Thrust Library

High performance computing environments are progressively moving towards many-core computing architectures. The Los Alamos National Laboratory Trinity machine, available in late 2016, will use both Intel Xeon Haswell processors and Intel Xeon Phi Knights Landing many integrated core (MIC) coprocessors. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sierra machine, available in 2018, will use an IBM PowerPC architecture along with Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs). Applications that must work in this supercomputing environment must continue to adapt in order to take advantage of the diverse hardware architectures that are coming. A significant consideration is not only the performance of the application on a given platform but also the portability of the application to other platforms. The algorithmic improvements presented in this paper build upon recently-reported work on event-based Monte Carlo transport in the ALPSMC code that models particle transport in one-dimensional binary stochastic media. That paper discussed the lack of available vectorization in the traditional history-based algorithm used for Monte Carlo transport and presented a data parallel event-based algorithm implemented using the Nvidia Thrust library for portability. The performance of the data parallel event-based algorithm implemented using Thrust was compared to a native CUDA implementation. The conclusions from that work were that the Thrust library abstraction technique caused too significant a loss in performance but that the event-based method was a viable option that should be further investigated. In this paper, we describe algorithmic improvements to the data parallel event-based algorithm previously presented. We made further algorithmic optimizations to the event-based CUDA implementation, most notably: data structure changes, a new conditional particle removal scheme in the event-based process, and the use of multiple GPUs. In addition to improvements to the algorithm, we re-implemented the Thrust version from the now further optimized CUDA version, giving a greater chance for success at a performant abstraction. Finally, we revisited our previous assumptions about the inability of the history-based method to achieve performance on vector style architectures such as the MICs and GPUs, with surprising and promising results. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields

We propose a new multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach for prediction of random fields based on observations of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models. Our method builds upon recent work on recursive Bayesian techniques, in particular recursive co-kriging, and extends it to vector-valued fields and various types of covariances, including separable and non-separable ones. The framework we propose is general and can be used to perform uncertainty propagation and quantification in model-based simulations, multi-fidelity data fusion, and surrogate-based optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed recursive GPR techniques through various examples. Specifically, we study the stochastic Burgers equation and the stochastic Oberbeck–Boussinesq equations describing natural convection within a square enclosure. In both cases we find that the standard deviation of the Gaussian predictors as well as the absolute errors relative to benchmark stochastic solutions are very small, suggesting that the proposed multi-fidelity GPR approaches can yield highly accurate results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗