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NASA NTRS1989

Dusty plasmas in the solar system

The processes that lead to charging of dust grains in a plasma are briefly reviewed. Whereas for single grains the results have been long known, the reduction of the average charge on a grain by 'Debye screening' has only recently been discovered. This reduction can be important in the Jovian ring and in the rings of Uranus. The emerging field of gravitoelectrodynamics which deals with the motion of charged grains in a planetary magnetosphere is then reviewed. Important mechanisms for distributing grains in radial distance are due to stochastic fluctuations of the grain charge and a systematic variation due to motion through plasma gradients. The electrostatic levitation model for the formation of spokes is discussed, and it is shown that the radial transport of dust contained in the spokes may be responsible for the rich radial structure in Saturn's rings. Finally, collective effects in dusty plasmas are discussed which affect various waves, such as density waves in planetary rings and low-frequency plasma waves. The possibility of charged grains forming a Coulomb lattice is briefly described.

Goertz, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamic rain fade compensation techniques for the advanced communications technology satellite

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above the 30/20 GHz Ka band necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory. The ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model discerns climatological variations on the order of 0.5 deg in latitude and longitude in the continental U.S. The time-dependent portion of the model gives precise availability predictions for the 'spot beam' links of ACTS. However, the structure of the dynamic portion of the model, which yields performance parameters such as fade duration probabilities, is isomorphic to the state-variable approach of stochastic control theory and is amenable to the design of such statistical fade processing schemes which can be made specific to the particular climatological location at which they are employed.

Manning, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Barometric Tides from ECMWF Operational Analyses

The solar diurnal and semidiurnal tidal oscillations in surface pressure are extracted from the the operational analysis product of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). For the semidiurnal tide this involves a special temporal interpolation, following Van den Dool and colleagues. The resulting tides are compared with a ground truth tide dataset, a compilation of well-determined tide estimates deduced from long time series of station barometer measurements. These comparisons show that the ECMWF tides are significantly more accurate than the tides deduced from two other widely available reanalysis products. Spectral analysis of ECMWF pressure series shows that the tides consist of sharp central peaks with modulating sidelines at integer multiples of 1 cycle/year, superimposed on a broad cusp of stochastic energy. The integrated energy in the cusp dominates that of the sidelines. This complicates development of a simple model that can characterize the full temporal variability of the tides.

Ray, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Environmental factors driving spatial heterogeneity in desert halophile microbial communities

Spatial heterogeneity in microbial communities is observed in all-natural ecosystems and can stem from both adaptations to local environmental conditions as well as stochastic processes. Extremophile microbial communities inhabiting evaporitic halite nodules (salt rocks) in the Atacama Desert, Chile, are a good model ecosystem for investigating factors leading to microbiome heterogeneity, due to their diverse taxonomic composition and the spatial segregation of individual nodules. We investigated the abiotic factors governing microbiome composition across different spatial scales, allowing for insight into the factors that govern halite colonization from regional desert-wide scales to micro-scales within individual nodules. We found that water availability and community drift account for microbiome assembly differently at different distance scales, with higher rates of cell dispersion at the smaller scales resulting in a more homogenous composition. This trend likely applies to other endoliths, and to non desert communities, where dispersion between communities is limited. At the intra-nodule scales, a light availability gradient was most important in determining the distribution of microbial taxa despite intermixing by water displacement via capillary action.

microbiome extremophile, desert, heterogeneity, Me↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of active sites to capture pitting of oxidizing carbon materials in DSMC.

In this work we demonstrate a newly developed capability to capture pitting of carbon fibers in DSMC simulations, specifically using the Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA) code [1]. State-of-the-art reactive surface models in DSMC compute collision dependent carbon consumption rates (usually through desorption of CO) based on a set of surface reactions that has been derived from molecular beam experiments [2]. The reactivity on each carbon surface element is constant in those models, such that the carbon surface recedes uniformly as a result of ablation. However, it is well known that in reality the carbon surface has locally different reaction rates due to the presence of defects at the atomic scale [3]. These defective sites have a much higher reactivity than the average sites (2-3 orders of magnitude) and are first to react during ablation leading to its removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective and increase their reactivity, thus leading to the localized carbon removal around these ”active” sites (as shown in Fig. 1). In this manner, these highly reactive defective sites serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits with potentially detrimental effects on the structural integrity. Recently a detailed surface chemistry framework was developed in SPARTA, capable of incorporating various reaction mechanisms such as adsorption, desorption, Eley-Rideal (ER) and Langmuir-Hinshelwood (LH) mechanisms [4]. Within this framework, we have implemented the capability of a single surface having multiple site sets with different reactivities. Using this feature, we can simulate the presence of active sites on carbon surfaces, whose reactivity is much greater than an average site as a result of defects. We have implemented the active site fraction as a property of surface elements within SPARTA, which is directly proportional to the local reactivity of each surface element. By introducing an initial distribution of the active site fraction across the carbon surface, and propagating it in a manner that mimics the evolution of real reacting carbon surfaces, we are able to capture the formation and growth of etch pits as a result of surface consumption reactions such as oxidation.

DSMC↗
NASA NTRS2014

Interval Predictor Models with a Formal Characterization of Uncertainty and Reliability

This paper develops techniques for constructing empirical predictor models based on observations. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single predicted output at each value of the model's inputs, Interval Predictors Models (IPM) yield an interval into which the unobserved output is predicted to fall. The IPMs proposed prescribe the output as an interval valued function of the model's inputs, render a formal description of both the uncertainty in the model's parameters and of the spread in the predicted output. Uncertainty is prescribed as a hyper-rectangular set in the space of model's parameters. The propagation of this set through the empirical model yields a range of outputs of minimal spread containing all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs and eliminating the effects of outliers are proposed. Outliers are identified by evaluating the extent by which they degrade the tightness of the prediction. This evaluation can be carried out while the IPM is calculated. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization program used for calculating the IPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex program), the model's reliability (that is, the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted range of outputs) can be bounded rigorously by a non-asymptotic formula.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean Turbulence: Mesoscale Modeling in Isopycnal Coordinates the role of the Spectrum of Vertical Shear - Part 4

We study the tracer subgrid term in isopycnal coordinates, S(sub I). We employ two ingredients: the experimental data on vertical spectra of ocean turbulence measured by Gargett et al.(1981) and the stochastic approach recently developed by Dukowicz and Smith (1997). Our result confirms that S(sub I) is made of two parts: an advection and a diffusion term. However, the tracer bolus velocity u** consists of two terms u** = u(sub 1) + u(sub 2) while in the GM model there is only a term related to u(sub 1) which is shown to be: u(sub 1) = k(bar-q)(sup -1)(delta)(sub rho) where bar-q is the thickness weighted average potential vorticity, a result in agreement with the recent suggestions by Treguier et al. (1997), Lee et al. (1997) and Greatbatch (1998). The second component u(sub 2) IS new. We compute it in the geostrophic approximation using the Gargett et al. data (1981) on ocean vertical turbulence. We find that u(sub 2) much greater than u(sub 1) and that u(sub 2) is orthogonal to u(sub 1).

Canuto, V. M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Stochastic differential equations and turbulent dispersion

Aspects of the theory of continuous stochastic processes that seem to contribute to an understanding of turbulent dispersion are introduced and the theory and philosophy of modelling turbulent transport is emphasized. Examples of eddy diffusion examined include shear dispersion, the surface layer, and channel flow. Modeling dispersion with finite-time scale is considered including the Langevin model for homogeneous turbulence, dispersion in nonhomogeneous turbulence, and the asymptotic behavior of the Langevin model for nonhomogeneous turbulence.

Durbin, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The structure of evaporating and combusting sprays: Measurements and predictions

An apparatus developed, to allow observations of monodisperse sprays, consists of a methane-fueled turbulent jet diffusion flame with monodisperse methanol drops injected at the burner exit. Mean and fluctuating-phase velocities, drop sizes, drop-mass fluxes and mean-gas temperatures were measured. Initial drop diameters of 100 and 180 microns are being considered in order to vary drop penetration in the flow and effects of turbulent dispersion. Baseline tests of the burner flame with no drops present were also conducted. Calibration tests, needed to establish methods for predicting drop transport, involve drops supported in the post-flame region of a flat-flame burner operated at various mixture ratios. Spray models which are being evaluated include: (1) locally homogeneous flow (LFH) analysis, (2) deterministic separated flow (DSF) analysis and (3) stochastic separated flow (SSF) analysis.

Shuen, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z = (z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y(0)=(y sub 1(0),...,y sub D(0)) knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y(0). The data space Y containing y(0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x (e.g., energy or dissipation rate), Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. CSI is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface. Neither the heat flow nor the energy bound is strong enough to permit estimation of B(r) at single points on the CMB, but the heat flow bound permits estimation of uniform averages of B(r) over discs on the CMB, and both bounds permit weighted disc-averages with continous weighting kernels. Both bounds also permit estimation of low-degree Gauss coefficients at the CMB. The heat flow bound resolves them up to degree 8 if the crustal field at satellite altitudes must be treated as a systematic error, but can resolve to degree 11 under the most favorable statistical treatment of the crust. These two limits produce circles of confusion on the CMB with diameters of 25 deg and 19 deg respectively.

Backus, George E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Uncertainties in large space systems

Uncertainties of a large space system (LSS) can be deterministic or stochastic in nature. The former may result in, for example, an energy spillover problem by which the interaction between unmodeled modes and controls may cause system instability. The stochastic uncertainties are responsible for mode localization and estimation errors, etc. We will address the effects of uncertainties on structural model formulation, use of available test data to verify and modify analytical models before orbiting, and how the system model can be further improved in the on-orbit environment.

Fuh, Jon-Shen↗
NASA NTRS1996

Decoherence and Exponential Law: A Solvable Model

We analyze a modified version of the 'AgBr' Hamiltonian, solve exactly the equations of motion in terms of SU(2) coherent states, and study the weak-coupling, macroscopic limit of the model, obtaining an exponential behavior at all times. The asymptotic dominance of the exponential behavior is representative of a purely stochastic evolution and can be derived quantum mechanically in the so-called van Hove's limit (which is a weak-coupling, macroscopic limit). At the same time, a temporal behavior of the exponential type, yielding a 'probability dissipation' is closely related to dephasing ('decoherence') effects and one can expect a close connection with a dissipative and irreversible behavior. We stress the central relevance of the problem of dissipation to the quantum measurement theory and to the general topic of decoherence.

Pascazio, Saverio↗
NASA NTRS2004

Computation Molecular Kinetics Model of HZE Induced Cell Cycle Arrest

Cell culture models play an important role in understanding the biological effectiveness of space radiation. High energy and charge (HZE) ions produce prolonged cell cycle arrests at the G1/S and G2/M transition points in the cell cycle. A detailed description of these phenomena is needed to integrate knowledge of the expression of DNA damage in surviving cells, including the determination of relative effectiveness factors between different types of radiation that produce differential types of DNA damage and arrest durations. We have developed a hierarchical kinetics model that tracks the distribution of cells in various cell phase compartments (early G1, late G1, S, G2, and M), however with transition rates that are controlled by rate-limiting steps in the kinetics of cyclin-cdk's interactions with their families of transcription factors and inhibitor molecules. The coupling of damaged DNA molecules to the downstream cyclin-cdk inhibitors is achieved through a description of the DNA-PK and ATM signaling pathways. For HZE irradiations we describe preliminary results, which introduce simulation of the stochastic nature of the number of direct particle traversals per cell in the modulation of cyclin-cdk and cell cycle population kinetics. Comparison of the model to data for fibroblast cells irradiated photons or HZE ions are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Knowledge-based processing for aircraft flight control

This Contractor Report documents research in Intelligent Control using knowledge-based processing in a manner dual to methods found in the classic stochastic decision, estimation, and control discipline. Such knowledge-based control has also been called Declarative, and Hybid. Software architectures were sought, employing the parallelism inherent in modern object-oriented modeling and programming. The viewpoint adopted was that Intelligent Control employs a class of domain-specific software architectures having features common over a broad variety of implementations, such as management of aircraft flight, power distribution, etc. As much attention was paid to software engineering issues as to artificial intelligence and control issues. This research considered that particular processing methods from the stochastic and knowledge-based worlds are duals, that is, similar in a broad context. They provide architectural design concepts which serve as bridges between the disparate disciplines of decision, estimation, control, and artificial intelligence. This research was applied to the control of a subsonic transport aircraft in the airport terminal area.

Painter, John H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A computer simulation of aircraft evacuation with fire

A computer simulation was developed to assess passenger survival during the post-crash evacuation of a transport category aircraft when fire is a major threat. The computer code, FIREVAC, computes individual passenger exit paths and times to exit, taking into account delays and congestion caused by the interaction among the passengers and changing cabin conditions. Simple models for the physiological effects of the toxic cabin atmosphere are included with provision for including more sophisticated models as they become available. Both wide-body and standard-body aircraft may be simulated. Passenger characteristics are assigned stochastically from experimentally derived distributions. Results of simulations of evacuation trials and hypothetical evacuations under fire conditions are presented.

Middleton, V. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

An optimal repartitioning decision policy

A central problem to parallel processing is the determination of an effective partitioning of workload to processors. The effectiveness of any given partition is dependent on the stochastic nature of the workload. The problem of determining when and if the stochastic behavior of the workload has changed enough to warrant the calculation of a new partition is treated. The problem is modeled as a Markov decision process, and an optimal decision policy is derived. Quantification of this policy is usually intractable. A heuristic policy which performs nearly optimally is investigated empirically. The results suggest that the detection of change is the predominant issue in this problem.

Nicol, D. M.↗