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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Acoustic and Vibration Environment for Crew Launch Vehicle Mobile Launcher

A launch-induced acoustic environment represents a dynamic load on the exposed facilities and ground support equipment (GSE) in the form of random pressures fluctuating around the ambient atmospheric pressure. In response to these fluctuating pressures, structural vibrations are generated and transmitted throughout the structure and to the equipment items supported by the structure. Certain equipment items are also excited by the direct acoustic input as well as by the vibration transmitted through the supporting structure. This paper presents the predicted acoustic and vibration environments induced by the launch of the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) from Launch Complex (LC) 39. The predicted acoustic environment depicted in this paper was calculated by scaling the statistically processed measured data available from Saturn V launches to the anticipated environment of the CLV launch. The scaling was accomplished by using the 5-segment Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) engine parameters. Derivation of vibration environment for various Mobile Launcher (ML) structures throughout the base and tower was accomplished by scaling the Saturn V vibration environment.

Vu, Bruce T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concentration fluctuations and flammability of cryo-compressed hydrogen and methane jets

Compressed hydrogen stored at cryogenic temperatures has a much higher density than room-temperature storage, which enables large-scale hydrogen storage and transport. An understanding of the release of cryogenic hydrogen from pressurized vessels is needed to evaluate the risk and safety concerns with the use of this fuel. Here, the present work extends the analysis of previous experimental studies that measured the gas concentrations of cryo-compressed hydrogen jets and methane jets using a laser Raman scattering diagnostic system. Since the Raman signals are very small, a denoising algorithm was applied to significantly reduce the noise to enable statistical analysis of the data. The transient features of the turbulent jets were characterized by their concentration intermittencies and probability density functions (PDFs). A two-part PDF was developed to predict the bimodal features of the jet concentration distributions. Then, the flammability factors of the cryogenic jets were calculated based on the intermittency and the PDF.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Effect of Stochastic Perturbation of Fuel Distribution on the Criticality of a One Speed Reactor and the Development of Multi-Material Multinomial Line Statistics

The effect of random fuel redistribution on the eigenvalue of a one-speed reactor is investigated. An ensemble of such reactors that are identical to a homogeneous reference critical reactor except for the fissile isotope density distribution is constructed such that it meets a set of well-posed redistribution requirements. The average eigenvalue, , is evaluated when the total fissile loading per ensemble element, or realization, is conserved. The perturbation is proven to increase the reactor criticality on average when it is uniformly distributed. The various causes of the change in reactivity, and their relative effects are identified and ranked. From this, a path towards identifying the causes. and relative effects of reactivity fluctuations for the energy dependent problem is pointed to. The perturbation method of using multinomial distributions for representing the perturbed reactor is developed. This method has some advantages that can be of use in other stochastic problems. Finally, some of the features of this perturbation problem are related to other techniques that have been used for addressing similar problems.

Jahshan, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Recent variations of sea ice and air temperature in high latitudes

A gridded sea-ice database, for which the record length is now approaching four decades for the Arctic and two decades for the Antarctic, is summarized here. The sea-ice fluctuations derived from the dataset are characterized by temporal scales of several seasons to several years and spatial scales of 30-180 deg of longitude. The ice data are examined in conjunction with air temperature data for evidence of recent climate change in the polar regions. The arctic sea-ice variations over the past several decades are compatible with the corresponding air temperatures, which show a distinct warming that is strongest over northern land areas during the winter and spring. Statistically significant decreases of the summer extent of arctic ice are apparent in the sea-ice data, and new summer minima have been achieved three times in the past 15 years. There is no significant trend if ice extent in the Arctic during winter or in the Antarctic during any season.

Chapman, William L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Flow Phenomena in the Very Near Wake of a Flat Plate with a Circular Trailing Edge

The very near wake of a flat plate with a circular trailing edge, exhibiting pronounced shedding of wake vortices, is investigated with data from a direct numerical simulation. The separating boundary layers are turbulent and statistically identical thus resulting in a wake that is symmetric in the mean. The focus here is on the instability of the detached shear layers, the evolution of rib-vortex induced localized regions of reverse flow that detach from the main body of reverse flow in the trailing edge region and convect downstream, and phaseaveraged velocity statistics in the very near wake. The detached shear layers are found to exhibit unstable behavior intermittently, including the development of shear layer vortices as in earlier cylinder flow investigations with laminar separating boundary layers. Only a small fraction of the separated turbulent boundary layers undergo this instability, and form the initial shed vortices. Pressure spectra within the shear layers show a broadband peak at a multiple of shedding frequency. Phase-averaged intensity and shear stress distributions of the randomly fluctuating component of velocity are compared with those obtained in the near wake. The distributions of the production terms in the transport equations for the turbulent stresses are also provided.

Turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying dominant environmental predictors of freshwater wetland methane fluxes across diurnal to seasonal time scales

While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH 4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH 4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. In this work we used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH 4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH 4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH 4 emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Precision measurement of the neutral pion lifetime

The explicit breaking of the axial symmetry by quantum fluctuations gives rise to the so-called axial anomaly. This phenomenon is solely responsible for the decay of the neutral pion π0 into two photons (γγ), leading to its unusually short lifetime. Here, we precisely measured the decay width Γ of the π 0 → γγ process. The differential cross sections for π0 photoproduction at forward angles were measured on two targets, carbon-12 and silicon-28, yielding Γ(π 0 → γγ)=7.798±0.056(stat.)±0.109(syst.) eV, where stat. denotes the statistical uncertainty and syst. the systematic uncertainty. We combined the results of this and an earlier experiment to generate a weighted average of Γ(π 0 → γγ)=7.802±0.052(stat.)±0.105(syst.) eV. Our final result has a total uncertainty of 1.50% and confirms the prediction based on the chiral anomaly in quantum chromodynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1990

Patterns in simulated turbulent channel flow

The surface stress is a key diagnostic in wall bounded turbulent flows. Large fluctuations in the stress are believed to be associated with intermittent 'bursting' events during which a large proportion of the turbulence production takes place. If this is so, then a detailed investigation of the structure of the surface stress and its spatial relationship to events within the flow could have wide application in drag reduction and other aspects of flow control. The initial phase of this project, therefore, concentrated on the surface stress field. The first objective is to carry out a statistical analysis of the instantaneous surface stress in a simulated turbulent channel flow, including comparison with multipoint experimental data from a zero pressure gradient turbulent boundary layer. The second objective is to apply a simple pattern recognition procedure to educe the characteristic spatial structure of various flow diagnostics. The final objective is to extend the pattern recognition analysis to examine the whole three dimensional structure of the flow.

Stretch, D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 constraints on extended cosmological models

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model, ΛCDM, and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from the Planck mission. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1. To test the dependence of our results on non-ACT data, we also explore combinations replacing Planck with WMAP and DESI with BOSS, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index dn s /d ln k = 0.0062 ± 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N eff = 2.86 ± 0.13, which combined with astrophysical measurements of primordial helium and deuterium abundances becomes N eff = 2.89 ± 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (∑m ν < 0.089 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N idr < 0.134), or for early-universe variation of fundamental constants, including the fine-structure constant (α EM /α EM,0 = 1.0043 ± 0.0017) and the electron mass (m e /m e,0 = 1.0063 ± 0.0056). Our data are consistent with standard big bang nucleosynthesis (we find Y p = 0.2312 ± 0.0092), the COBE/FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature (we find T CMB = 2.698 ± 0.016 K), a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant (w = -0.986 ± 0.025), and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity (γ = 0.663 ± 0.052). We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline ΛCDM model. In fits to models invoking early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or an arbitrary modified recombination history, we find H 0 = 69.9 +0.8 -1.5 , 69.1 ± 0.5, or 69.6 ± 1.0 km/s/Mpc, respectively; using BOSS instead of DESI BAO data reduces the central values of these constraints by 1–1.5 km/s/Mpc while only slightly increasing the error bars. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored over ΛCDM by our data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Exploration of Local VolumE Satellites (ELVES) Survey: A Nearly Volume-limited Sample of Nearby Dwarf Satellite Systems

We present the final sample of the Exploration of Local VolumE Satellites (ELVES) survey, a survey of the dwarf satellites of a nearly volume-limited sample of Milky Way (MW)-like hosts in the Local Volume. Hosts are selected simply via a cut in luminosity (${M}_{{K}_{s}}\lt -22.1$ mag) and distance (D < 12 Mpc). We cataloged the satellites of 25 of the 31 such hosts, with another five taken from the literature. All hosts are surveyed out to at least 150 projected kpc ( ~ R vir /2), with the majority surveyed to 300 kpc ( ~ R vir ). Satellites are detected using a consistent semiautomated algorithm specialized for low surface brightness dwarfs. As shown through extensive tests with injected galaxies, the catalogs are complete to M V ~ -9 mag and μ 0,V ~ 26.5 mag arcsec -2 . Candidates are confirmed to be real satellites through distance measurements including redshift, tip of the red giant branch, and surface brightness fluctuations. Across all 30 surveyed hosts, there are 338 confirmed satellites with M V < -9 mag, with a further 106 candidates awaiting distance measurement. For the vast majority of these, we provide consistent multiband Sérsic photometry. We show that satellite abundance correlates with host mass, with the MW being quite typical among comparable systems, and that satellite quenched fraction rises steeply with decreasing satellite mass, mirroring the quenched fraction for the MW and M31. The ELVES survey represents a massive increase in the statistics of surveyed systems with known completeness, and the provided catalogs are a unique data set to explore various aspects of small-scale structure and dwarf galaxy evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗
NASA NTRS1987

Coherent motion induced fluctuations in the primary transition region of a plane shear layer

The naturally occurring large scale motions in a single stream shear layer (that is initiated from a fully turbulent boundary layer) are made evident by the induced velocities in the entrainment region beyond the active shear layer. The distinctive attributes of these induced motions are particularly evident in the Michigan State Univerity Free Shear Flow Facility since the total test section length (3m) is nominally the same as the location of the first, fully formed, coherent motion, ca/x theta (0) = 400 (or 2.5 m). Hence, detailed studies of the induced motions can be executed. Individual coherent motions are identified by the induced velocity signatures and conditional-ensemble statistics are used to represent the irrotational field properties. Clusters of such motions exist; some of their properties are substantially different from the unconditionally averaged values.

Foss, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Evolution of Structure in the Intergalactic Medium and the Nature of the LY-Alpha Forest

We have performed a detailed statistical study of the evolution of structure in a photoionized intergalactic medium (IGM) using analytical simulations to extend the calculation into the mildly nonlinear density regime found to prevail at z = 3. Our work is based on a simple fundamental conjecture: that the probability distribution function of the density of baryonic diffuse matter in the universe is described by a lognormal (LN) random field. The LN distribution has several attractive features and follows plausibly from the assumption of initial linear Gaussian density and velocity fluctuations at arbitrarily early times. Starting with a suitably normalized power spectrum of primordial fluctuations in a universe dominated by cold dark matter (CDM), we compute the behavior of the baryonic matter, which moves slowly toward minima in the dark matter potential on scales larger than the Jeans length. We have computed two models that succeed in matching observations. One is a nonstandard CDM model with OMEGA = 1, h = 0.5, and GAMMA = 0.3, and the other is a low-density flat model with a cosmological constant (LCDM), with OMEGA = 0.4, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) = 0.6, and h = 0.65. In both models, the variance of the density distribution function grows with time, reaching unity at about z = 4, where the simulation yields spectra that closely resemble the Ly-alpha forest absorption seen in the spectra of high-z quasars. The calculations also successfully predict the observed properties of the Ly-alpha forest clouds and their evolution from z = 4 down to at least z = 2, assuming a constant intensity for the metagalactic UV background over this redshift range. However, in our model the forest is not due to discrete clouds, but rather to fluctuations in a continuous intergalactic medium. At z = 3; typical clouds with measured neutral hydrogen column densities N(sub H I) = 10(exp 13.3), 10(exp 13.5), and 10(exp 11.5) /sq cm correspond to fluctuations with mean total densities approximately 10, 1, and 0.1 times the universal mean baryon density. Perhaps surprisingly, fluctuations whose amplitudes are less than or equal to the mean density still appear as "clouds" because in our model more than 70% of the volume of the IGM at z = 3 is filled with gas at densities below the mean value.

Bi, Hongguang↗
NASA NTRS2019

The PetitSat Mission – Science Goals and Instrumentation

The mid- and low-latitude ionosphere is home to a variety of plasma density irregularities, including depletions (bubbles), enhancements (blobs), and small-scale scintillation. Previous studies of plasma density enhancements observed using ROCSAT data have posited that these structures are the direct result of the formation of bubbles near the geomagnetic equator. However, more recent observations from the C/NOFS satellite suggest that multiple mechanisms are responsible for forming plasma enhancements, with wave action in the ionosphere and thermosphere as a significant driver of the enhanced densities. Indeed, statistical analysis of enhancements observed from satellites resembles the statistics of Medium-Scale Traveling Ionosphere Disturbances (MSTIDs) with respect to seasonal variability and solar activity. petitSat is a CubeSat mission designed to examine the link between MSTIDs and plasma enhancements. The mission will provide in situ measurements of the plasma density, 3D ion drift, as well as ion and neutral composition. The instrument suite includes a combined retarding potential analyzer and cross-track drift meter and an ion-neutral mass spectrometer. This instrument suite will provide comprehensive information about the fluctuations in plasma, as well as changes in the neutral profile. petitSat will launch into a 51 deg inclination orbit at 400 km (consistent with an International Space Station deployment), allowing for numerous conjunctions with the Boston University All-Sky Imager network over the mission lifetime.

J. Klenzing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of ontogenetic development, temperature, and pCO2 on otolith calcium carbonate polymorph composition in sturgeons

Changes to calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) biomineralization in aquatic organisms is among the many predicted effects of climate change. Because otolith (hearing/orientation structures in fish) CaCO 3 precipitation and polymorph composition are controlled by genetic and environmental factors, climate change may be predicted to affect the phenotypic plasticity of otoliths. We examined precipitation of otolith polymorphs (aragonite, vaterite, calcite) during early life history in two species of sturgeon, Lake Sturgeon, (Acipenser fulvescens) and White Sturgeon (A. transmontanus), using quantitative X-ray microdiffraction. Both species showed similar fluctuations in otolith polymorphs with a significant shift in the proportions of vaterite and aragonite in sagittal otoliths coinciding with the transition to fully exogenous feeding. We also examined the effect of the environment on otolith morphology and polymorph composition during early life history in Lake Sturgeon larvae reared in varying temperature (16/22 °C) and pCO 2 (1000/2500 µatm) environments for 5 months. Fish raised in elevated temperature had significantly increased otolith size and precipitation of large single calcite crystals. Interestingly, pCO 2 had no statistically significant effect on size or polymorph composition of otoliths despite blood pH exhibiting a mild alkalosis, which is contrary to what has been observed in several studies on marine fishes. These results suggest climate change may influence otolith polymorph composition during early life history in Lake Sturgeon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Cosmic microwave background anisotropies in cold dark matter models with cosmological constant: The intermediate versus large angular scales

We obtain predictions for cosmic microwave background anisotropies at angular scales near 1 deg in the context of cold dark matter models with a nonzero cosmological constant, normalized to the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) detection. The results are compared to those computed in the matter-dominated models. We show that the coherence length of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy is almost insensitive to cosmological parameters, and the rms amplitude of the anisotropy increases moderately with decreasing total matter density, while being most sensitive to the baryon abundance. We apply these results in the statistical analysis of the published data from the UCSB South Pole (SP) experiment (Gaier et al. 1992; Schuster et al. 1993). We reject most of the Cold Dark Matter (CDM)-Lambda models at the 95% confidence level when both SP scans are simulated together (although the combined data set renders less stringent limits than the Gaier et al. data alone). However, the Schuster et al. data considered alone as well as the results of some other recent experiments (MAX, MSAM, Saskatoon), suggest that typical temperature fluctuations on degree scales may be larger than is indicated by the Gaier et al. scan. If so, CDM-Lambda models may indeed provide, from a point of view of CMB anisotropies, an acceptable alternative to flat CDM models.

Stompor, Radoslaw↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scaling Analysis of Two–Phase Flow in Fractal Permeability Fields

Fluid mixing in permeable media is essential in many practical applications. The mixing process is a consequence of velocity fluctuations owing to geological heterogeneities and mobility contrast of fluids. Heterogeneities in natural rocks are often spatially correlated, and their properties, such as permeability, may be described using fractal distributions. This work models the fractal characteristics of such permeability fields in which the covariance function is expressed as a power-law function. A generalized scaling relation is derived relating various fractal permeability fields using the magnitude of their fluctuations. Here, this relation reveals the self-similar behavior of two-phase flow in such permeable media. To that end, a recently developed, high-resolution numerical simulator is employed to validate the analytically derived scaling relations. Two flow problems are considered in which flow is governed by 1) a linear, and 2) a nonlinear transport equation. Due to the probabilistic representation of the fractal permeability fields, a sensitivity study is conducted for each flow scenario to determine the number of realizations required for statistical convergence. Scaling analysis is performed using ensemble averages of simulated saturation profiles and their mixing lengths. Results support the validity of the developed scaling relation across the range of investigated flow conditions at intermediate times. The dynamics of linear flow in the asymptotic regime is affected by the correlation structure of heterogeneity. In nonlinear flow, scaling behavior appears to be dominated by the degree of nonlinearity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗