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At least 847 records · Page 47

Estimating Terrestrial Carbon Exchange from Space: How Often and How Well?

Data from a new space mission measuring integrated light-use efficiency could provide a breakthrough in understanding of global carbon, water, and energy dynamics, and greatly improve the accuracy of model predictions for terrestrial carbon cycles and climate. Over the past decade, Gamon and others have shown that changes in photo-protective pigments are sensitive indicators of declines in light-use efficiency of plants and plant canopies. The requirements for integrated diurnal measurements from space need to be defined, before a space mission can be formulated successfully using this concept. We used towerbased CO 2 flux data as idealized proxies for remote measurements, examining their sampling properties. Thousands of half-hourly CO 2 flux measurements are needed before their average begins to converge on an average annual net CO 2 exchange. Estimates of daily integrated fluxes (i.e., diurnal curves) are more statistically efficient, especially if the spacing between measured days is quasiregular, rather than random. Using a few measurements per day one can distinguish among days with different net CO 2 exchanges. Fluxes sampled between mid-morning to mid-afternoon are more diagnostic than early morning or late afternoon measurements. Similar results (correlation >0.935) were obtained using 2 measurements per day with high accuracy ([:plusmn:]5%), 3 measurements per day with medium accuracy ([:plusmn:] 10%), or 5 measurements per day at lower accuracy ([:plusmn:]20%). An observatory in a geosynchronous or near-geosynchronous orbit could provide appropriate observations, as could a multi-satellite constellation in polar orbits, but there is a potential trade-off between the required number of observations per day and quality of each observation.

Knox, Robert G.↗

Pathways to IEC Standards for Heliostat Design Qualification and Site Acceptance in Central Receiver CSP Applications

This paper surveys the existing landscape of standards relevant to heliostats, identifies their gaps, and proposes a path forward to a comprehensive set of heliostat guidelines, technical specifications, and standards under the framework of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) TC 117. Gaps in existing guidelines and standards are surveyed using a three-tiered taxonomy: component-level, heliostat-level, and field-level. At each level, the gap analysis is followed by a proposal for a coordinated path forward on the development of standards. At the component level, advances in the understanding of wind loading should inform a technical specification for drives and structures. Reflectors require consolidation of measurement guidelines into existing standards documents. Communications & controls require technical standards to inform their selection and secure implementation. At the heliostat level, IEC 62817 (solar trackers) adequately characterizes drive systems, structures, and electronics, but requires adaptation to heliostats' use patterns, operating modes, and expected life cycles. IEC 62817 does not address heliostat beam quality and pointing accuracy, but the process for determining both is elaborated in the SolarPACES Guideline for Heliostat Performance Testing. This SolarPACES document requires two main modifications: adaptation to IEC language and inclusion of testing after heliostats which have undergone accelerated weathering and mechanical cycling (to understand performance degradation). At the field level, IEC 62862-4-2 addresses the function and control of heliostat fields but does not cover the statistically rigorous testing of heliostat groups, or field performance factors like security and soiling. The addition of documents under IEC-62862-4 is proposed to address this gap.

beam↗

Infrared Fingerprint and Unimolecular Decay Dynamics of the Hydroperoxyalkyl Intermediate (•QOOH) in Cyclopentane Oxidation

A transient carbon-centered hydroperoxyalkyl intermediate (•QOOH) in the oxidation of cyclopentane is identified by IR action spectroscopy with time-resolved unimolecular decay to hydroxyl (OH) radical products that are detected by UV laser-induced fluorescence. Two nearly degenerate •QOOH isomers, β- and γ-QOOH, are generated by H atom abstraction of the cyclopentyl hydroperoxide precursor. Fundamental and first overtone OH stretch transitions and combination bands of •QOOH are observed and compared with anharmonic frequencies computed by second-order vibrational perturbation theory. An OH stretch transition is also observed for a conformer arising from torsion about a low-energy CCOO barrier. Definitive identification of the β-QOOH isomer relies on its significantly lower transition state (TS) barrier to OH products, which results in rapid unimolecular decay and near unity branching to OH products. A benchmarking approach is utilized to compute high-accuracy stationary point energies, most importantly TS barriers, for cyclopentane oxidation (C 5 H 9 O 2 ), building on higher level reference calculations for ethane oxidation (C 2 H 5 O 2 ). The experimental OH product appearance rates are compared with computed statistical microcanonical rates using RRKM theory, including heavy-atom tunneling, thereby validating the computed TS barrier. The results are extended to thermal unimolecular decay rate constants at temperatures and pressures relevant to cyclopentane combustion via master-equation modeling. Furthermore, the various torsional and ring puckering states of the wells and transition states are explicitly considered in these calculations.

Chemical calculations↗

A stochastic atmospheric model for remote sensing applications

There are many factors which reduce the accuracy of classification of objects in the satellite remote sensing of Earth's surface. One important factor is the variability in the scattering and absorptive properties of the atmospheric components such as particulates and the variable gases. For multispectral remote sensing of the Earth's surface in the visible and infrared parts of the spectrum the atmospheric particulates are a major source of variability in the received signal. It is difficult to design a sensor which will determine the unknown atmospheric components by remote sensing methods, at least to the accuracy needed for multispectral classification. The problem of spatial and temporal variations in the atmospheric quantities which can affect the measured radiances are examined. A method based upon the stochastic nature of the atmospheric components was developed, and, using actual data the statistical parameters needed for inclusion into a radiometric model was generated. Methods are then described for an improved correction of radiances. These algorithms will then result in a more accurate and consistent classification procedure.

Turner, R. E.↗

Search for gamma rays of energy 10(15) eV from Cygnus X-3

Finite flux of excess radiation of energy 10 to the 15th power has been reported by two groups from the direction of Cygnus X-3, with the characteristic periodicity of 4.8 hrs. Samorski and Stamm find that the muon content of the showers generated by this excess radiation is about 77% of that in normal cosmic ray showers, whereas the expectation for gamma ray showers is less than 10%. It is thus difficult to understand the nature of the radiation arriving from the direction of Cygnus X-3. Samorski and Stamm measured the muon densities close to the core (approx. 10 m), where contamination due to other components is severe. Even though this does not explain the high ratio of muon densities, measurements should be carried out away from the core to establish the nature of the radiation. In order to establish the signal from Cygnus X-3 and its muon content with better statistical significance, an extensive air shower array, specifically designed for this purpose was operated at Kolar Gold Fields (longitude: 78 deg .3 E; latitude: + 12 deg .95; atmospheric depth: 920 q/square centimeters) since September, 1984. The details of the array and the accuracy of arrival direction measurements are discussed.

Bhat, P. N.↗

Metric analysis and data validation across FORTRAN projects

The desire to predict the effort in developing or explaining the quality of software has led to the proposal of several metrics. As a step toward validating these metrics, the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) has analyzed the software science metrics, cyclomatic complexity, and various standard program measures for their relation to effort (including design through acceptance testing), development errors (both discrete and weighted according to the amount of time to locate and fix), and one another. The data investigated are collected from a project FORTRAN environment and examined across several projects at once, within individual projects and by reporting accuracy checks demonstrating the need to validate a database. When the data comes from individual programmers or certain validated projects, the metrics' correlations with actual effort seem to be strongest. For modules developed entirely by individual programmers, the validity ratios induce a statistically significant ordering of several of the metrics' correlations. When comparing the strongest correlations, neither software science's E metric cyclomatic complexity not source lines of code appears to relate convincingly better with effort than the others.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Phenomenological Verification Techniques

Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one to verify sea breeze forecasts, and three were capable of verifying several phenomena. The AMU also determined the feasibility of transitioning each technique into operations and rated the operational capability of each technique on a subjective 1-10 scale: (1) 1 indicates that the technique is only in the initial stages of development, (2) 2-5 indicates that the technique is still undergoing modifications and is not ready for operations, (3) 6-8 indicates a higher probability of integrating the technique into AWIPS with code modifications, and (4) 9-10 indicates that the technique was created for AWIPS and is ready for implementation. Eight of the techniques were assigned a rating of 5 or below. The other two received ratings of 6 and 7, and none of the techniques a rating of 9-10. At the current time, there are no phenomenological model verification techniques ready for operational use. However, several of the techniques described in this report may become viable techniques in the future and should be monitored for updates in the literature. The desire to use a phenomenological verification technique is widespread in the modeling community, and it is likely that other techniques besides those described herein are being developed, but the work has not yet been published. Therefore, the AMIU recommends that the literature continue to be monitored for updates to the techniques described in this report and for new techniques being developed whose results have not yet been published. 111

Lambert, Winifred↗

Comparing the OpenSolar Remote Shading Analysis Tool to On-Site Shading Measurements

OpenSolar is a free of charge application built for solar installers that creates a fully articulated 3D model of the site and performs remote shading analysis, in order to produce highly accurate designs and interactive, customizable proposals. Under the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Commercialization Assistance Program (NCAP), NREL independently verified the accuracy of OpenSolar's remote analysis of solar access percentage values (SAVs) on an annual basis for locations in Los Angeles, CA, and Denver, CO. In aggregate, the results of the analysis show that Open Solar-calculated annual SAV measurements were statistically equivalent within ±2.63 SAVs for Los Angeles locations and ±2.69 SAVs for Denver locations compared to those of on-site measurements made with SunEye devices.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Delta Method Application for the Correlation of IR Detector Thermal Parasitic Loads with Statistically Accurate Results

The Linear Etalon Imaging Spectral Array (LEISA) is a cryogenic IR detector that is passively cooled below 110K. LEISA is part of the L’Ralph instrument, which is going on the Lucy mission, with planned flyby’s of the Trojan asteroids around 5.5 AU. One of the primary thermal challenges is to successfully quantify each significant parasitic heat flow value with statistical certainty.Simulation of flight-like thermal environments and correlation of thermal models is an important part of this challenge, which can be critical for thermally sensitive systems such as cryogenic detectors that are passively cooled. It is common practice during TVAC to achieve several thermal balance points and then to correlate several design variables in order to achieve the closest match to all balance points tested. This approach lends itself to high levels of uncertainty in the correlated values due to the cumulative effect of absolute temperature uncertainty and differences between the sensors used for the measurement. Accuracy can be improved with the use of more accurate sensors, by calibrating all sensors with respect to each other, and by using Zero-Q methodologies, all of which add cost and complexity to the test.The Delta Method uses the difference in temperature caused by the changes in the boundary conditions to calculate heat flows and/or thermal resistances across temperature differentials. This eliminates the problem of high uncertainties with absolute temperature measurements, and yields statistically accurate results down to the sensor resolution of 1mK at < 100K, by taking the sensor’s calibration errors out of the equation. During testing, this method relies on parametric variations around an initial balance point, by varying the boundary conditions of the different parasitic heat sources. The Delta Method, as well as its application on the LEISA thermal test, will be discussed in detail.

Daniel G. Bae↗

Influence of fabrication tolerances on the surface accuracy of large antenna structures

One of the sources of error in radio frequency antennas is the lack of dimensional precision of the surface. This paper presents an approach for estimating the amount of error caused by random dimensional imperfections of the many structural elements which make up a truss-type antenna. A principle of equivalence between the analyses of statistical errors and of the natural vibration frequencies of the structure is developed. Examples are presented to show the application of this equivalence principle to the determination of average surface errors of several types and proportions of antenna structures.

Hedgepeth, J. M.↗

Stochastic Real-Time Second-Order Green’s Function Theory for Neutral Excitations in Molecules and Nanostructures

We present a real-time second-order Green’s function (GF) method for computing excited states in molecules and nanostructures, with a computational scaling of O(N e 3 ), where N e is the number of electrons. The cubic scaling is achieved by adopting the stochastic resolution of the identity to decouple the 4-index electron repulsion integrals. To improve the time propagation and the spectral resolution, we adopt the dynamic mode decomposition technique and assess the accuracy and efficiency of the combined approach for a chain of hydrogen dimer molecules of different lengths. We find that the stochastic implementation accurately reproduces the deterministic results for the electronic dynamics and excitation energies. Furthermore, we provide a detailed analysis of the statistical errors, bias, and long-time extrapolation. Overall, the approach offers an efficient route to investigate excited states in extended systems with open or closed boundary conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing the stability of noisy quantum computation

Quantum computation has made considerable progress in the last decade with multiple emerging technologies providing proof-of-principle experimental demonstrations of such calculations. However, these experimental demonstrations of quantum computation face technical challenges due to the noise and errors that arise from imperfect implementation of the technology. Here, we frame the concepts of computational accuracy, result reproducibility, device reliability and program stability in the context of quantum computation. We provide intuitive definitions for these concepts in the context of quantum computation that lead to operationally meaningful bounds on program output. Our assessment highlights the continuing need for statistical analyses of quantum computing program to increase our confidence in the burgeoning field of quantum information science.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗

Advances in gamma-ray burst astronomy

The paper reviews the current status of observational research into the highly puzzling problem of cosmic gamma-ray bursts. Up to now there is no convincing temporal or spatial correlation with any known celestial processes or objects. The typical burst source strength is somewhere between 10 to the 26th power ergs and 10 to the 52nd power ergs. A list of 39 confirmed and 9 unconfirmed cosmic gamma-ray bursts observed by satellite is given, showing times of occurrence and in some cases, the size in erg per square centimeter. Several approaches to the problem of source object identification are discussed: (1) accumulation of observation statistics with their present poor resolution and research for correlative phenomena, (2) mapping out celestial source distributions with moderate resolution in order to search for galactic or other anisotropies in direction or to look for repeating source regions, and (3) very high-accuracy localization of the source directions of one or several bursts in order to pinpoint a tiny fraction of the celestial sphere for correlative radio, optical and X-ray studies. Planned future instrumentation for deep space probes and multiple-balloon studies is described.

Cline, T. L.↗

A probabilistic approach to radiative energy loss calculations for optically thick atmospheres - Hydrogen lines and continua

An approximate probabilistic radiative transfer equation and the statistical equilibrium equations are simultaneously solved for a model hydrogen atom consisting of three bound levels and ionization continuum. The transfer equation for L-alpha, L-beta, H-alpha, and the Lyman continuum is explicitly solved assuming complete redistribution. The accuracy of this approach is tested by comparing source functions and radiative loss rates to values obtained with a method that solves the exact transfer equation. Two recent model solar-flare chromospheres are used for this test. It is shown that for the test atmospheres the probabilistic method gives values of the radiative loss rate that are characteristically good to a factor of 2. The advantage of this probabilistic approach is that it retains a description of the dominant physical processes of radiative transfer in the complete redistribution case, yet it achieves a major reduction in computational requirements.

Canfield, R. C.↗

Radar estimation of slant path rain attenuation at frequencies above 10 GHz and comparisons with measured multi-season results

Techniques and results pertaining to estimating Earth satellite path rain attenuation events and statistics using radar at nonattenuating wavelengths are presented. The radar formulation and beam scanning methods are described and the procedure for relating the radar measured Rayleigh reflectivity to the high frequency Mie attenuation coefficient are given. Examples of radar derived single terminal statistics and estimation criteria as they relate to path angle and frequency are reviewed. Radar derived space diversity statistics and their dependence on terminal spacing and frequency are described. Site diversity performance curves obtained by radar and radiometry are compared with each other demonstrating the utility of radar methods. Results of a multi-year experiment to test, refine, and establish accuracies of radar methods for arriving at estimates of rain attenuation along an Earth-satellite path are discussed. Comparisons of measured and radar estimated fade events are presented and found to be good. Comparisons of cumulative fade distributions show agreement to be excellent giving an rms deviation of 1 dB.

Goldhirsh, J.↗

Uncertainty in cloud optical depth estimates made from satellite radiance measurements

The uncertainty in optical depths retrieved from satellite measurements of visible wavelength radiance at the top of the atmosphere is quantified. Techniques are briefly reviewed for the estimation of optical depth from measurements of radiance, and it is noted that these estimates are always more uncertain at greater optical depths and larger solar zenith angles. The lack of radiometric calibration for visible wavelength imagers on operational satellites dominates the uncertainty retrievals of optical depth. This is true for both single-pixel retrievals and for statistics calculated from a population of individual retrievals. For individual estimates or small samples, sensor discretization can also be significant, but the sensitivity of the retrieval to the specification of the model atmosphere is less important. The relative uncertainty in calibration affects the accuracy with which optical depth distributions measured by different sensors may be quantitatively compared, while the absolute calibration uncertainty, acting through the nonlinear mapping of radiance to optical depth, limits the degree to which distributions measured by the same sensor may be distinguished.

Pincus, Robert↗

Best Merge Region Growing with Integrated Probabilistic Classification for Hyperspectral Imagery

A new method for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. The method is based on the integration of probabilistic classification within the hierarchical best merge region growing algorithm. For this purpose, preliminary probabilistic support vector machines classification is performed. Then, hierarchical step-wise optimization algorithm is applied, by iteratively merging regions with the smallest Dissimilarity Criterion (DC). The main novelty of this method consists in defining a DC between regions as a function of region statistical and geometrical features along with classification probabilities. Experimental results are presented on a 200-band AVIRIS image of the Northwestern Indiana s vegetation area and compared with those obtained by recently proposed spectral-spatial classification techniques. The proposed method improves classification accuracies when compared to other classification approaches.

Tarabalka, Yuliya↗