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DOE OSTI2020

Calibrating Synchronous-Generator-Interfaced DG Models in Microgrids Using Multiple Event Data

Microgrids, consisting of distributed generators (DGs), loads, and energy storage systems, play an important role in future smart grids. In order to evaluate how microgrids operate and their dynamic response, it is necessary to develop accurate dynamic models of DGs in microgrids. This paper proposes a systematic method to calibrate synchronous-generator-interfaced DG models. Challenges associated with model validation in microgrids are analyzed. Underlying parameters are categorized into two groups, i.e., the steady-state parameters and time constants, which are estimated in two successive stages using multiple event data. This methodology ensures that the validated model with the estimated parameters are applicable for all events. A modified unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to deal with the cases in which measurement of power angle is unavailable. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using field test data of a 2.6 MVA diesel generator in a real microgrid.

Wang, Zhiwen↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantification and evaluation of plastic waste in the United States

To develop viable solutions for reducing plastic waste, spatially explicit data on the management of these materials are critical. Here we employ statistical and geospatial methods to present a comprehensive assessment of plastic waste in the United States by resin type at the state, county, and local levels. Of the estimated 44 Mt of plastic waste managed in 2019 domestically, approximately 86% was landfilled, 9% was combusted, and 5% was recycled. Landfilled plastics represented significant losses to the country's economy in 2019: an average of US$7.2 billion in market value, about 3.4 EJ as embodied energy (equivalent to 12% of energy consumption by the industrial sector), and 1.5 EJ as an energy source (equivalent to 5.5% and 5% of energy consumption by the industrial and transportation sectors, respectively). Lastly, we posit that substantial amount of landfilled plastic waste could be recovered through advanced sorting, existing, and emerging recycling processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model

Abstract During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model‐derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea‐level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre‐industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice‐sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high‐latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice‐sheet response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing Hydrogen Storage Potential in U.S. Underground Gas Storage Facilities

Abstract Underground hydrogen storage is a long‐duration energy storage option for a low‐carbon economy. Although research into the technical feasibility of underground hydrogen storage is ongoing, existing underground gas storage (UGS) facilities are appealing candidates for the technology because of their ability to store and deliver natural gas. We estimate that UGS facilities in the United States (U.S.) can store 327 TWh (9.8 MMT) of pure hydrogen. A complete transition to hydrogen storage would reduce the collective working‐gas energy of UGS facilities by ∼75%; however, most (73.2%) UGS facilities could maintain current energy demand using a 20% hydrogen‐natural gas blend. U.S. UGS facilities can buffer 23.9%–44.6% of the high and low hydrogen demand projected for 2050, respectively, which exceeds the current percentage of natural gas demand buffered by storage. Thus, transitioning UGS infrastructure to hydrogen could substantially reduce the number of new hydrogen storage facilities needed to support a hydrogen economy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Downfolding from ab initio to interacting model Hamiltonians: comprehensive analysis and benchmarking of the DFT+cRPA approach

Abstract Model Hamiltonians are regularly derived from first principles to describe correlated matter. However, the standard methods for this contain a number of largely unexplored approximations. For a strongly correlated impurity model system, here we carefully compare a standard downfolding technique with the best possible ground-truth estimates for charge-neutral excited-state energies and wave functions using state-of-the-art first-principles many-body wave function approaches. To this end, we use the vanadocene molecule and analyze all downfolding aspects, including the Hamiltonian form, target basis, double-counting correction, and Coulomb interaction screening models. We find that the choice of target-space basis functions emerges as a key factor for the quality of the downfolded results, while orbital-dependent double-counting corrections diminish the quality. Background screening of the Coulomb interaction matrix elements primarily affects crystal-field excitations. Our benchmark uncovers the relative importance of each downfolding step and offers insights into the potential accuracy of minimal downfolded model Hamiltonians.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Temporal Characterization and Filtering of Sensor Data to Support Anomaly Detection

Here, we present an approach for characterizing complex temporal behavior in the sensor measurements of a system in order to support detection of anomalies in that system. We first characterize typical behavior by extending a hidden Markov model-based approach to time series alignment. We then use a trace of that learned behavior to develop a particle filter that enables efficient estimation of the filtering distribution on the state space. This produces filtered residuals that can then be used in an anomaly detection framework. Our motivating example is the daily behavior of a building’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, using sensor measurements that arrive every minute and induce a state space with 15,120 states. We provide an end-to-end demonstration of our approach showing improved performance of anomaly detection after application of alignment and filtering compared to the unaligned data. The proposed model is implemented as a computationally efficient R package alignts (align time series) built with R and Fortran 95 with OpenMP support.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Theoretical and numerical studies of inverse source problem for the linear parabolic equation with sparse boundary measurements

We consider the inverse source problem in the parabolic equation, where the unknown source possesses the semi-discrete formulation. Theoretically, we prove that the flux data from any nonempty open subset of the boundary can uniquely determine the semi-discrete source. This means the observed area can be extremely small, and that is the reason we call it sparse boundary data. For the numerical reconstruction, we formulate the problem from the Bayesian sequential prediction perspective and conduct the numerical examples which estimate the space-time-dependent source state by state. To better demonstrate the method’s performance, we solve two common multiscale problems from two models with a long source sequence. The numerical results illustrate that the inversion is accurate and efficient.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for multi-decadal fuel buildup in a large California wildfire from smoke radiocarbon measurements

In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in annual area burned in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. This rise in fire activity has prompted the need to understand how historical forest management practices affect fuel composition and emissions. Here we examined the total carbon (TC) concentration and radiocarbon abundance (Δ 14 C) of particulate matter (PM) emitted by the KNP Complex Fire, which occurred during California's 2021 wildfire season and affected several groves of giant sequoia trees in the southern Sierra Nevada. During a 26 h sampling period, we measured concentrations of fine airborne PM (PM 2.5 ), as well as dry air mole fractions of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH 4 ), using a ground-based mobile laboratory. We also collected filter samples of PM 2.5 for analysis of TC concentration and Δ 14 C. High correlation among PM 2.5 , CO, and CH 4 time series confirmed that our PM 2.5 measurements captured variability in wildfire emissions. Using a Keeling plot approach, we determined that the mean Δ 14 C of PM 2.5 was 111.6 ± 7.7‰ (n = 12), which was considerably enriched relative to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the northern hemisphere in 2021 (-3.2 ± 1.4‰). Combining these Δ 14 C data with a steady-state one-box ecosystem model, we estimated that the mean age of fuels combusted in the KNP Complex Fire was 40 years, with a range of 29–57 years. These results provide evidence for emissions originating from woody biomass, larger-diameter fine fuels, and coarse woody debris that have accumulated over multiple decades. This is consistent with independent field observations that indicate high fire intensity contributed to widespread giant sequoia mortality. With the expanded use of prescribed fires planned over the next decade in California to mitigate wildfire impacts, our measurement approach has the potential to provide regionally-integrated estimates of the effectiveness of fuel treatment programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projecting U.S. coastal storm surge risks and impacts with deep learning

Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards posed by tropical cyclones (TCs), yet assessing its current and future risk is difficult due to the phenomenon’s rarity and physical complexity. Recent advances in artificial intelligence applications to natural hazard modeling suggest a new avenue for addressing this problem. We develop a deep learning storm surge model to efficiently estimate coastal surge risk in the United States from 900 000 synthetic TC events, accounting for projected changes in TC behavior and sea levels. The derived historical 100 year surge (the event with a 1% yearly exceedance probability) agrees well with historical observations and other modeling techniques. When coupled with an inundation model, we find that heightened TC intensities and sea levels by the end of the century result in a 50% increase in population at risk. Key findings include markedly heightened risk in Florida, and critical thresholds identified in Georgia and South Carolina.

RAFT↗

DOE OSTI2020

First cosmology results using type Ia supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey: the effect of host galaxy properties on supernova luminosity

ABSTRACT We present improved photometric measurements for the host galaxies of 206 spectroscopically confirmed type Ia supernovae discovered by the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN) and used in the first DES-SN cosmological analysis. For the DES-SN sample, when considering a 5D (z, x1, c, α, β) bias correction, we find evidence of a Hubble residual ‘mass step’, where SNe Ia in high-mass galaxies (>1010M⊙) are intrinsically more luminous (after correction) than their low-mass counterparts by $\gamma =0.040\pm 0.019$ mag. This value is larger by 0.031 mag than the value found in the first DES-SN cosmological analysis. This difference is due to a combination of updated photometric measurements and improved star formation histories and is not from host-galaxy misidentification. When using a 1D (redshift-only) bias correction the inferred mass step is larger, with $\gamma =0.066\pm 0.020$ mag. The 1D−5D γ difference for DES-SN is $0.026\pm 0.009$ mag. We show that this difference is due to a strong correlation between host galaxy stellar mass and the x1 component of the 5D distance-bias correction. Including an intrinsic correlation between the observed properties of SNe Ia, stretch and colour, and stellar mass in simulated SN Ia samples, we show that a 5D fit recovers γ with −9 mmag bias compared to a +2 mmag bias for a 1D fit. This difference can explain part of the discrepancy seen in the data. Improvements in modelling correlations between galaxy properties and SN is necessary to ensure unbiased precision estimates of the dark energy equation of state as we enter the era of LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-section measurements to low-lying excited final states in the 24 M(α,p) 27 Al*(γ) reaction as an energy source for x-ray bursts

Energy production in Type Ia x-ray bursts depends on a number of nuclear reactions that become efficient in a hot environment (up to 2 GK). Model sensitivity studies have been performed in an effort to better identify the reactions that have the largest effect, but these efforts are hampered by the high level of complexity of the astrophysical model and large nuclear physics uncertainties. In a recent study, the 24 Mg(α,p) 27 Al reaction was found to significantly affect the energy generation in x-ray bursts. This manuscript reports the first study of the 24 Mg(α,p 1,2 γ) 27 Al reaction at energies relevant for x-ray bursts. In conclusion, the branches to the 27 Al excited states increase to a small degree the estimates of the total astrophysical 24 Mg(α,p) 27 Al reaction rate.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Single crystal synthesis and magnetic properties of a Shastry-Sutherland lattice compound BaNd 2 ZnS 5

In this study, single crystals of a Shastry-Sutherland magnetic semiconductor, BaNd 2 ZnS 5 , were synthesized through a high-temperature solution growth technique. Physical properties were characterized by powder and single crystal x-ray diffraction, temperature- and field-dependent magnetization, and temperature-dependent specific heat measurements. BaNd 2 ZnS 5 orders antiferromagnetically at 2.9 K, with magnetic moments primarily aligned within the $ab$ -plane. Magnetic isothermal measurements show metamagnetic transitions at ~ 15 kOe for the [110] direction and ~ 21 kOe for the [100] direction. Estimated magnetic entropy suggests a double ground state for each neodymium ion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Abstract Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty‐five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard‐mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine‐scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Kays, Roland↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of hepatitis B virus infection spread in primary human hepatocytes

ABSTRACT Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection poses a significant global health threat, causing severe liver diseases including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We characterized HBV DNA kinetics in primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) over 32 days post-inoculation (p.i.) and modified ourin-vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to gain insights into the HBV lifecycle and spreadin vitro. Parallel PHH cultures were mock-treated or treated with HBV entry inhibitor Myr-preS1 (6.25 µg/mL) was initiated 24 h p.i. In untreated PHH, three viral DNA kinetic patterns were identified: (i) an initial decline, followed by (ii) rapid amplification and (iii) slower amplification/accumulation. In the presence of Myr-preS1, viral DNA and infected cell numbers in phase 3 were effectively blocked, with minimal to no increase. This suggests that phase 2 represents viral amplification in initially infected cells, while phase 3 corresponds to viral spread to naïve cells. The ABM reproduced well the HBV kinetic patterns observed and predicted that the viral eclipse phase lasts between 18 and 38 h. After the eclipse phase, the viral production rate increased over time, starting with a slow production cycle of 1 virion per day, which gradually accelerated to 1 virion per hour after 3 days. Approximately 4 days later, virion production reached a steady state production rate of 4 virions/h. The estimated median efficacy of Myr-preS1 in blocking HBV spread was 91% (range: 90–92%). The HBV kinetics and the predicted estimates of the HBV eclipse phase duration and HBV production cycles in PHH are similar to those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers. IMPORTANCE While primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) are the most physiologically relevant culture system for studying HBV infectionin vitro, a comprehensive understanding of HBV infection kinetics and spread in PHH is lacking. In this study, we characterize HBV viral kinetics and modify ourin vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to provide quantitative insights into the HBV production cycle and viral spread in PHH. The ABM provides an estimate of the HBV eclipse phase duration, HBV production cycles, and Myr-preS1 efficacy in blocking HBV spread in PHH. The results resemble those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers, demonstrating that estimated HBV infection kinetic parameters in PHHin vitromirror those observed in thein vivoHBV infection chimeric mouse model.

Virology↗

DOE OSTI2026

photoemission

The code is a python package that implements a one-step model to estimate quantum efficiency of photoemission from solid state surfaces. The analytical formulation is based on the approach proposed in Phys Rev B 95, 075439 (2017). This code extends that formalism from a model Hamiltonian to the calculation of quantum efficiency from the electronic states derived from solid-state quantum mechanical calculations obtained using the VASP code.

Batista, Enrique↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Correction Model of the Winter Clear-Sky Temperature Bias over the Arctic Sea Ice in Atmospheric Reanalyses

Atmospheric reanalyses are widely used to estimate the past atmospheric near-surface state over sea ice. They provide boundary conditions for sea ice and ocean numerical simulations and relevant information for studying polar variability and anthropogenic climate change. Previous research revealed the existence of large near-surface temperature biases (mostly warm) over the Arctic sea ice in the current generation of atmospheric reanalyses, which is linked to a poor representation of the snow over the sea ice and the stably stratified boundary layer in the forecast models used to produce the reanalyses. These errors can compromise the employment of reanalysis products in support of polar research. Here, we train a fully connected neural network that learns from remote sensing infrared temperature observations to correct the existing generation of uncoupled atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5, JRA-55) based on a set of sea ice and atmospheric predictors, which are themselves reanalysis products. The advantages of the proposed correction scheme over previous calibration attempts are the consideration of the synoptic weather and cloud state, compatibility of the predictors with the mechanism responsible for the bias, and a self-emerging seasonality and multidecadal trend consistent with the declining sea ice state in the Arctic. The correction leads on average to a 27% temperature bias reduction for ERA5 and 7% for JRA-55 if compared to independent in situ observations from the MOSAiC campaign (respectively, 32% and 10% under clear-sky conditions). These improvements can be beneficial for forced sea ice and ocean simulations, which rely on reanalyses surface fields as boundary conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emergent orbital magnetization in Kitaev quantum magnets

Unambiguous identification of the Kitaev quantum spin liquid (QSL) in materials remains a huge challenge despite many encouraging signs from various measurements. To facilitate the experimental detection of the Kiteav QSL, here we propose to use remnant charge response in Mott insulators hosting QSL to identify the key signatures of QSL. We predict an emergent orbital magnetization in a Kitaev system in an external magnetic field. The direction of the orbital magnetization can be flipped by rotating the external magnetic field in the honeycomb plane. The orbital magnetization is demonstrated explicitly through a detailed microscopic analysis of the multiorbital Hubbard-Kanamori Hamiltonian and also supported by a phenomenological picture. We first derive the localized electrical loop current operator in terms of the spin degrees of freedom. Thereafter, utilizing the Majorana representation, we estimate the loop currents in the ground state of the chiral Kitaev QSL state, and obtain the consequent current textures, which are responsible for the emergent orbital magnetization. Finally, we discuss the possible experimental techniques to visualize the orbital magnetization which can be considered as the signatures of the underlying excitations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗