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At least 847 records · Page 47

Satellite Data Assimilation

Satellite altimetry provides the only routine observation of a dynamic variable of the global ocean. For instance, measurements from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter have provided dramatic basin-wide images of the space-time evolution of sea level associated with the 1997-98 El Nino event. The nature of large-scale ocean circulation is being studied that underlies such sea level changes measured by satellite altimetry. To first approximation, properties of large-scale (order 1000 km and larger) sea level variability is latitudinally dependent. An analysis using a general circulation model shows that sea level changes are largely due to wind-driven baroclinic (depth dependent) circulation in the tropics (within 20 degrees of the equator), but are primarily due to the expansion and contraction of near surface water in temperate latitudes (between 20 deg. and 40 deg.) forced by seasonal heating and cooling. In contrast, wind-driven barotropic (depth independent) circulation dominates sea level variability in high latitudes (40 deg. and higher) characterized by periods that are as short as a few days. The presence of such inhomogeneity and the significance of high-frequency, large-scale sea level changes had not been fully recognized prior to this study, and are summarized in Fukumori et al. Numerical models provide theoretical relationships among properties that can be inverted using observations so as to estimate the entire state of the ocean, including properties that are otherwise difficult to measure remotely. The process is data assimilation. An approximate Kalman filter and smoother have been devised to assimilate three years of TOPEX/POSEIDON sea level data into a global ocean general circulation model. The figure below demonstrates the skill of the assimilation, and shows the altimeter assimilated estimate being in closer agreement than the simulation is with independent in situ measurements of subsur ace temperature and velocity, consistent with formal uncertainty estimates. Results from this study have been summarized and submitted for publication. The study demonstrates the feasibility of global ocean data assimilation and illustrates applications in monitoring and understanding of processes controlling the evolution of the ocean. Additional information is contained in the original.

Fukumori, Ichiro↗

Analysis and application of minimum variance discrete time system identification

An on-line minimum variance parameter identifier was developed which embodies both accuracy and computational efficiency. The new formulation resulted in a linear estimation problem with both additive and multiplicative noise. The resulting filter is shown to utilize both the covariance of the parameter vector itself and the covariance of the error in identification. It is proven that the identification filter is mean square covergent and mean square consistent. The MV parameter identification scheme is then used to construct a stable state and parameter estimation algorithm.

Kotob, S.↗

Analysis of Wind Tunnel Oscillatory Data of the X-31A Aircraft

Wind tunnel oscillatory tests in pitch, roll, and yaw were performed on a 19%-scale model of the X-31A aircraft. These tests were used to study the aerodynamic characteristics of the X-31A in response to harmonic oscillations at six frequencies. In-phase and out-of-phase components of the aerodynamic coefficients were obtained over a range of angles of attack from 0 to 90 deg. To account for the effect of frequency on the data, mathematical models with unsteady terms were formulated by use of two different indicial functions. Data from a reduced set of frequencies were used to estimate model parameters, including steady-state static and dynamic stability derivatives. Both models showed good prediction capability and the ability to accurately fit the measured data. Estimated static stability derivatives compared well with those obtained from static wind tunnel tests. The roll and yaw rate derivative estimates were compared with rotary-balanced wind tunnel data and theoretical predictions. The estimates and theoretical predictions were in agreement at small angles of attack. The rotary-balance data showed, in general, acceptable agreement with the steady-state derivative estimates.

Smith, Mark S.↗

Computer program for analysis of high speed, single row, angular contact, spherical roller bearing, SASHBEAN. Volume 1: User's guide

The computer program SASHBEAN (Sikorsky Aircraft Spherical Roller High Speed Bearing Analysis) analyzes and predicts the operating characteristics of a Single Row, Angular Contact, Spherical Roller Bearing (SRACSRB). The program runs on an IBM or IBM compatible personal computer, and for a given set of input data analyzes the bearing design for it's ring deflections (axial and radial), roller deflections, contact areas and stresses, induced axial thrust, rolling element and cage rotation speeds, lubrication parameters, fatigue lives, and amount of heat generated in the bearing. The dynamic loading of rollers due to centrifugal forces and gyroscopic moments, which becomes quite significant at high speeds, is fully considered in this analysis. For a known application and it's parameters, the program is also capable of performing steady-state and time-transient thermal analyses of the bearing system. The steady-state analysis capability allows the user to estimate the expected steady-state temperature map in and around the bearing under normal operating conditions. On the other hand, the transient analysis feature provides the user a means to simulate the 'lost lubricant' condition and predict a time-temperature history of various critical points in the system. The bearing's 'time-to-failure' estimate may also be made from this (transient) analysis by considering the bearing as failed when a certain temperature limit is reached in the bearing components. The program is fully interactive and allows the user to get started and access most of its features with a minimal of training. For the most part, the program is menu driven, and adequate help messages were provided to guide a new user through various menu options and data input screens. All input data, both for mechanical and thermal analyses, are read through graphical input screens, thereby eliminating any need of a separate text editor/word processor to edit/create data files. Provision is also available to select and view the contents of output files on the monitor screen if no paper printouts are required. A separate volume (Volume-2) of this documentation describes, in detail, the underlying mathematical formulations, assumptions, and solution algorithms of this program.

Aggarwal, Arun K.↗

Towards an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS): A Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic System for Water Balance Assessments

Effective management of water resources requires reliable estimates of land surface states and fluxes, including water balance components. But most land surface models run in uncoupled mode and do not produce river discharge at catchment scales to be useful for water resources management applications. Such integrated systems are also rare over India where hydrometeorological extremes have wreaked havoc on the economy and people. So, an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) with a coupled land surface and a hydrodynamic model has been developed and driven by multiple meteorological forcings (0.1°, daily) to estimate land surface states, channel discharge, and floodplain inundation. ILDAS benefits from an integrated framework as well as the largest suite of observation records collected over India and has been used to produce a reanalysis product for 1981–2021 using four forcing datasets, namely, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), ECMWF’s ERA-5, and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation. We assessed the uncertainty and bias in these precipitation datasets and validated all major components of the terrestrial water balance, i.e., surface runoff, soil moisture, terrestrial water storage anomalies, evapotranspiration, and streamflow, against a combination of satellite and in situ observation datasets. Our assessment shows that ILDAS can represent the hydrological processes reasonably well over the Indian landmass with IMD precipitation showing the best relative performance. Evaluation against ESA-CCI soil moisture shows that MERRA-2 based estimates outperform the others, whereas ERA-5 performs best in simulating evapotranspiration when evaluated against MODIS ET. Evaluations against observed records show that CHIRPS-based estimates have the highest performance in reconstructing surface runoff and streamflow. Once operational, this system will be useful for supporting transboundary water management decision making in the region.

Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)↗

Application of a recursive distortion estimator to the geodetic correction of thematic mapper imagery

It is pointed out that the higher resolution provided by the Thematic Mapper increases the demands on the accuracy needed by the ground processing in correcting for geodetic errors deriving from internal misalignments and uncertainties in the knowledge of spacecraft ephemeris and attitude. In addition, the Thematic Mapper will also process longer imagery intervals than previous missions. The recursive distortion estimator to be used is a Kalman filter. Here, a minimum variance spacecraft state error vector is estimated for known initial covariance of the elements of that vector and known image noise. Tests of the recursive distortion estimator with various spacecraft models carried out using a simulation of real world state vector dynamics are described. A determination is made of the density of control points needed to meet specified geometric correction requirements; it is expressed as a function of imagery interval length and control point measurement error.

Arnold, P.↗

Post-Severe Thunderstorm Damage Assessment from March 2-3, 2020, Nashville, TN, Using Synthetic Aperture Radar Observations

Severe weather events (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes) are responsible for most weather-related infrastructure and building damages. The destruction caused by these events can cross several states, making damage estimates difficult, especially in heavily vegetated or rural areas. Drone or optical imagery is often relied upon in these cases but is limited by solar and atmospheric conditions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is an active sensor allowing for day and night collections in all weather conditions. This research highlights the benefits and limitations of using SAR to detect tornado tracks and associated damages while also assessing the strengths and weaknesses of two SAR sensors with varying wavelengths and spatial resolutions from the March 2020 Tornado Outbreak. The outbreak occurred overnight on March 2-3, when several supercell thunderstorms tracked across multiple states producing numerous tornadoes (EF-0 through EF-4) and large hail. Most of the damage occurred in central Tennessee, resulting in 25 fatalities, hundreds of injuries, and over a billion dollars worth of damage. Publicly available C-band (~6 cm) imagery from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellite and commercial X-band (~3 cm) imagery from Airbus’s TerraSAR-X satellite were used to generate amplitude and coherence products. The closest post-event collections were used for the amplitude products, and the closest pre- and post-collections were used to create the coherence pairs. If damage tracks were identified in any of the SAR products, the length (miles) and max width (yards) were recorded and compared to the National Weather Service Storm Data official records. SAR successfully detected five rated EF-1 or higher out of ten recorded tornadoes. However, none of the four EF-0 tornadoes were identified. X- and C-band SAR sensors are heavily impacted by dense vegetation, underestimating the extent of damage. Despite these limitations, SAR products can be beneficial when looking at severe weather impacts, especially during the winter and early spring when the coherence products are less influenced by vegetation. The upcoming L-band (~24 cm) NISAR mission will provide more accurate estimates of damage, with the longer wavelength, expanding the applications of SAR to assist in damage assessment caused by severe thunderstorms.

Hannah G Pankratz↗

Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods for the Earth-Observing Satellite Scheduling Problem

This work explores on-board planning for the single spacecraft, multiple ground station Earth-observing satellite scheduling problem through artificial neural network function approximation of state–action value estimates generated by Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS). An extensive hyperparameter search is conducted for MCTS on the basis of performance, safety, and downlink opportunity utilization to determine the best hyperparameter combination for data generation. A hyperparameter search is also conducted on neural network architectures. The learned behavior of each network is explored, and each network architecture’s robustness to orbits and epochs outside of the training distributions is investigated. Furthermore, each algorithm is compared with a genetic algorithm, which serves to provide a baseline for optimality. MCTS is shown to compute near-optimal solutions in comparison to the genetic algorithm. The state–action value networks are shown to match or exceed the performance of MCTS in six orders of magnitude less execution time, showing promise for execution on board spacecraft.

Adam P. Herrmann↗

Large-angle slewing maneuvers for flexible spacecraft

A new class of closed-form solutions for finite-time linear-quadratic optimal control problems is presented. The solutions involve Potter's solution for the differential matrix Riccati equation, which assumes the form of a steady-state plus transient term. Illustrative examples are presented which show that the new solutions are more computationally efficient than alternative solutions based on the state transition matrix. As an application of the closed-form solutions, the neighboring extremal path problem is presented for a spacecraft retargeting maneuver where a perturbed plant with off-nominal boundary conditions now follows a neighboring optimal trajectory. The perturbation feedback approach is further applied to three-dimensional slewing maneuvers of large flexible spacecraft. For this problem, the nominal solution is the optimal three-dimensional rigid body slew. The perturbation feedback then limits the deviations from this nominal solution due to the flexible body effects. The use of frequency shaping in both the nominal and perturbation feedback formulations reduces the excitation of high-frequency unmodeled modes. A modified Kalman filter is presented for estimating the plant states.

Chun, Hon M.↗

Space Shuttle Orbiter onboard rendezvous navigation

Much of the work that the Space Shuttle will perform requires a capability to rendezvous with other orbiting objects. The formulation and design philosophy behind the Space Shuttle Orbiter rendezvous navigation system are the subjects of this paper. The current rendezvous navigation design incorporates a Kalman filter to estimate the relative position and velocity. The filter is augmented with state elements for the estimation of colored measurement noise and acceleration modeling errors. Several measurement types are available to the filter: a manual optical sighting device, an automatic optical tracking instrument, and a rendezvous radar which provides range and range rate measurements as well as the line of sight direction. The filter also includes a technique for detecting highly improbable measurements and excluding them from Kalman processing.

Little, M. J.↗

Mission Data System Java Edition Version 7

The Mission Data System framework defines closed-loop control system abstractions from State Analysis including interfaces for state variables, goals, estimators, and controllers that can be adapted to implement a goal-oriented control system. The framework further provides an execution environment that includes a goal scheduler, execution engine, and fault monitor that support the expression of goal network activity plans. Using these frameworks, adapters can build a goal-oriented control system where activity coordination is verified before execution begins (plan time), and continually during execution. Plan failures including violations of safety constraints expressed in the plan can be handled through automatic re-planning. This version optimizes a number of key interfaces and features to minimize dependencies, performance overhead, and improve reliability. Fault diagnosis and real-time projection capabilities are incorporated. This version enhances earlier versions primarily through optimizations and quality improvements that raise the technology readiness level. Goals explicitly constrain system states over explicit time intervals to eliminate ambiguity about intent, as compared to command-oriented control that only implies persistent intent until another command is sent. A goal network scheduling and verification process ensures that all goals in the plan are achievable before starting execution. Goal failures at runtime can be detected (including predicted failures) and handled by adapted response logic. Responses can include plan repairs (try an alternate tactic to achieve the same goal), goal shedding, ignoring the fault, cancelling the plan, or safing the system.

Reinholtz, William K.↗

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

Determination of Eros Physical Parameters for Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous Orbit Phase Navigation

Navigation of the orbit phase of the Near Earth steroid Rendezvous (NEAR) mission will re,quire determination of certain physical parameters describing the size, shape, gravity field, attitude and inertial properties of Eros. Prior to launch, little was known about Eros except for its orbit which could be determined with high precision from ground based telescope observations. Radar bounce and light curve data provided a rough estimate of Eros shape and a fairly good estimate of the pole, prime meridian and spin rate. However, the determination of the NEAR spacecraft orbit requires a high precision model of Eros's physical parameters and the ground based data provides only marginal a priori information. Eros is the principal source of perturbations of the spacecraft's trajectory and the principal source of data for determining the orbit. The initial orbit determination strategy is therefore concerned with developing a precise model of Eros. The original plan for Eros orbital operations was to execute a series of rendezvous burns beginning on December 20,1998 and insert into a close Eros orbit in January 1999. As a result of an unplanned termination of the rendezvous burn on December 20, 1998, the NEAR spacecraft continued on its high velocity approach trajectory and passed within 3900 km of Eros on December 23, 1998. The planned rendezvous burn was delayed until January 3, 1999 which resulted in the spacecraft being placed on a trajectory that slowly returns to Eros with a subsequent delay of close Eros orbital operations until February 2001. The flyby of Eros provided a brief glimpse and allowed for a crude estimate of the pole, prime meridian and mass of Eros. More importantly for navigation, orbit determination software was executed in the landmark tracking mode to determine the spacecraft orbit and a preliminary shape and landmark data base has been obtained. The flyby also provided an opportunity to test orbit determination operational procedures that will be used in February of 2001. The initial attitude and spin rate of Eros, as well as estimates of reference landmark locations, are obtained from images of the asteroid. These initial estimates are used as a priori values for a more precise refinement of these parameters by the orbit determination software which combines optical measurements with Doppler tracking data to obtain solutions for the required parameters. As the spacecraft is maneuvered; closer to the asteroid, estimates of spacecraft state, asteroid attitude, solar pressure, landmark locations and Eros physical parameters including mass, moments of inertia and gravity harmonics are determined with increasing precision. The determination of the elements of the inertia tensor of the asteroid is critical to spacecraft orbit determination and prediction of the asteroid attitude. The moments of inertia about the principal axes are also of scientific interest since they provide some insight into the internal mass distribution. Determination of the principal axes moments of inertia will depend on observing free precession in the asteroid's attitude dynamics. Gravity harmonics are in themselves of interest to science. When compared with the asteroid shape, some insight may be obtained into Eros' internal structure. The location of the center of mass derived from the first degree harmonic coefficients give a direct indication of overall mass distribution. The second degree harmonic coefficients relate to the radial distribution of mass. Higher degree harmonics may be compared with surface features to gain additional insight into mass distribution. In this paper, estimates of Eros physical parameters obtained from the December 23,1998 flyby will be presented. This new knowledge will be applied to simplification of Eros orbital operations in February of 2001. The resulting revision to the orbit determination strategy will also be discussed.

Miller, J. K.↗

Rao-Blackwellization for Adaptive Gaussian Sum Nonlinear Model Propagation

When dealing with imperfect data and general models of dynamic systems, the best estimate is always sought in the presence of uncertainty or unknown parameters. In many cases, as the first attempt, the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) provides sufficient solutions to handling issues arising from nonlinear and non-Gaussian estimation problems. But these issues may lead unacceptable performance and even divergence. In order to accurately capture the nonlinearities of most real-world dynamic systems, advanced filtering methods have been created to reduce filter divergence while enhancing performance. Approaches, such as Gaussian sum filtering, grid based Bayesian methods and particle filters are well-known examples of advanced methods used to represent and recursively reproduce an approximation to the state probability density function (pdf). Some of these filtering methods were conceptually developed years before their widespread uses were realized. Advanced nonlinear filtering methods currently benefit from the computing advancements in computational speeds, memory, and parallel processing. Grid based methods, multiple-model approaches and Gaussian sum filtering are numerical solutions that take advantage of different state coordinates or multiple-model methods that reduced the amount of approximations used. Choosing an efficient grid is very difficult for multi-dimensional state spaces, and oftentimes expensive computations must be done at each point. For the original Gaussian sum filter, a weighted sum of Gaussian density functions approximates the pdf but suffers at the update step for the individual component weight selections. In order to improve upon the original Gaussian sum filter, Ref. [2] introduces a weight update approach at the filter propagation stage instead of the measurement update stage. This weight update is performed by minimizing the integral square difference between the true forecast pdf and its Gaussian sum approximation. By adaptively updating each component weight during the nonlinear propagation stage an approximation of the true pdf can be successfully reconstructed. Particle filtering (PF) methods have gained popularity recently for solving nonlinear estimation problems due to their straightforward approach and the processing capabilities mentioned above. The basic concept behind PF is to represent any pdf as a set of random samples. As the number of samples increases, they will theoretically converge to the exact, equivalent representation of the desired pdf. When the estimated qth moment is needed, the samples are used for its construction allowing further analysis of the pdf characteristics. However, filter performance deteriorates as the dimension of the state vector increases. To overcome this problem Ref. [5] applies a marginalization technique for PF methods, decreasing complexity of the system to one linear and another nonlinear state estimation problem. The marginalization theory was originally developed by Rao and Blackwell independently. According to Ref. [6] it improves any given estimator under every convex loss function. The improvement comes from calculating a conditional expected value, often involving integrating out a supportive statistic. In other words, Rao-Blackwellization allows for smaller but separate computations to be carried out while reaching the main objective of the estimator. In the case of improving an estimator's variance, any supporting statistic can be removed and its variance determined. Next, any other information that dependents on the supporting statistic is found along with its respective variance. A new approach is developed here by utilizing the strengths of the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation in Ref. [2] and a marginalization approach used for PF methods found in Ref. [7]. In the following sections a modified filtering approach is presented based on a special state-space model within nonlinear systems to reduce the dimensionality of the optimization problem in Ref. [2]. First, the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is explained and then the new marginalized adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is derived. Finally, an example simulation is presented.

state estimation↗

Ecosystem Carbon Emissions from 2015 Forest Fires in Interior Alaska

In the summer of 2015, hundreds of wildfires burned across the state of Alaska, and consumed more than 1.6 million ha of boreal forest and wetlands in the Yukon-Koyukuk region. Mapping of 113 large wildfires using Landsat satellite images from before and after 2015 indicated that nearly 60% of this area was burned at moderate-to-high severity levels. Field measurements near the town of Tanana on the Yukon River were carried out in July of 2017 in both unburned and 2015 burned forested areas (nearly adjacent to one-another) to visually verify locations of different Landsat burn severity classes (low, moderate, or high). Results: Field measurements indicated that the loss of surface organic layers in boreal ecosystem fires is a major factor determining post-fire soil temperature changes, depth of thawing, and carbon losses from the mineral topsoil layer. Measurements in forest sites showed that soil temperature profiles to 30 cm depth at burned forest sites increased by an average of 8o - 10o C compared to unburned forest sites. Sampling and laboratory analysis indicated a 65% reduction in soil carbon content and a 58% reduction in soil nitrogen content in severely burned sample sites compared to soil mineral samples from nearby unburned spruce forests. Conclusions: Combined with nearly unprecedented forest areas severely burned in the Interior region of Alaska in 2015, total ecosystem fire emission of carbon to the atmosphere exceeded most previous estimates for the state.

Ecosystem↗

Estimation of excitation energy of diatomic molecules in expanding nonequilibrium flows

The energy contained in the highly excited vibrational and rotational states in a diatomic gas in a thermochemical nonequilibrium state during expansion is estimated. The estimation is made on the assumption that the populations of the vibrational and rotational states, when normalized by their respective equilibrium values, are describable by simple functions containing no more than four arbitrary parameters. A cubic polynomial, a logarithmic-cubic polynomial, and a bimodal step function are used for this purpose. The four parameters are determined by imposing conditions known at the ground state and the dissociation limit and the mass conservation law. The energy in excess of that accounted for by assuming a Boltzmann distribution of these states, defined here as excess excitation energy, is calculated for N2, O2, NO, CO, OH, and H2. A calculation made for a typical nozzle flow shows that the excess energy may reach 6 percent of the total enthalpy of the flow, and that the flow velocity may decrease by as much as 4 percent due to the nonequilibrium excitation phenomenon.

Park, Chul↗

Geomagnetic Variability and Predictability

The Earth's magnetic field varies on time scales from seconds to millions of years. These variations can be measured directly by ground observatories and satellites, and indirectly through laboratories. They are from different electromagnetic processes in magnetosphere and ionosphere (external), ocean and crust (surface), and deep in the Earth's fluid outer core (internal). Of the measured magnetic signals, 95% is from the core, and is called the core field, or internal field. Variation of the core field, often called the geomagnetic secular variation (SV), is the manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamic processes in the core. Therefore, SV provides rich information on the core dynamical state that is then critical for understanding the geophysical mechanisms of the SV, the core-mantle interactions, and contribution of mass transport inside the core on Earth's gravity variation. Traditionally, the core state is probed via two independent methodologies: core flow inversion from the observed SV, and pure numerical dynamo simulation. The former is driven by observations, but does not include necessary interactions among physical variables; the latter is dynamically consistent, but is not constrained by any observation. Therefore, both are very limited in providing appropriate estimates of the core state. To avoid these limitations, a new approach, geomagnetic data assimilation, appears recently. In this approach, simulation results (model forecasts) are constantly corrected with observations, the corrected solutions (analysis), are then used as the initial conditions to make more accurate forecasts of future. Recent studies have demonstrated successfully that assimilation solutions are different from those of free running models. These new solutions are better estimates of the core state, and have been used to provide accurate prediction of SV for the period from 2010 to 2015. This prediction is part of the IGRF field model for international community applications.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Bending feedback control Final report

Application of quadratic optimal control, least squares state, and parameter estimation to stability and control of flexible launch vehicle

OPTIMAL CONTROL↗