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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Workload Considerations in Urban Air Mobility

Urban air mobility (UAM) is receiving increased attention in aviation as a system for passenger and cargo-carrying new entrants in urban airspace. In order to develop a safe and efficient system, numerous possible concepts of operation for UAM are being explored throughout industry and research domains, the features and assumptions of which may differ according to near, medium and far term operations. Much of the current research into the development of UAM has dominantly focused on technological and engineering capabilities, such as vehicle development. Although these areas of research are essential to furthering UAM, research into the role of the human operator in UAM is limited. The research described in this paper aims to begin to address this gap by investigating the capabilities and implications of human operators as traffic managers in the UAM system, focusing on near-term UAM operations. A human in the loop air traffic control simulation was used to investigate the effect of UAM traffic density, airspace routes and communication procedures on subjective workload and efficiency-related task performance. Findings indicate that medium and high-density operations were associated with high workload. A reduction in verbal communications through a letter of agreement, and optimized routes, were associated with reduced workload and increased performance efficiency. However, even with these adjustments, reported workload remained high, particularly during the high-density scenario. Future research should focus on the human operator roles and responsibilities, and the amount of involvement, in UAM system management. Particular focus should be directed on the impact of reduced human operator involvement and increased automation, on the safety and efficiency of UAM operations and the integration of UAM with traditional air traffic management.

Edwards, Tamsyn↗
NASA NTRS2022

Landing Site Selection with a Variable-Resolution SLAM-Refined Map

In many scenarios it is desirable for planetary landers to select or modify their landing sites autonomously during descent. We present a landing site selection algorithm which is optimized to work in conjunction with a Simultaneous Localization and Mapping system. Our algorithm selects landing sites based on site slope, roughness, and operator-defined interest. In addition, we generate guidance commands and approximate fuel consumption for the highest ranked sites. We validate our algorithm with LiDAR and inertial data gathered by a vertical take-off and landing vehicle.

Chen, Po-Ting↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pareto solutions in multicriteria optimization under uncertainty

We present and analyze several definitions of Pareto optimality for multicriteria optimization or decision problems with uncertainty primarily in their objective function values. In comparison to related notions of Pareto robustness, we first provide a full characterization of an alternative efficient set hierarchy that is based on six different ordering relations both with respect to the multiple objectives and a possibly finite, countably infinite or uncountable number of scenarios. We then establish several scalarization results for the generation of the corresponding efficient points using generalized weighted-sum and epsilon-constraint techniques. Finally, we leverage these scalarization results to also derive more general conditions for the existence of efficient points in each of the corresponding optimality classes, under suitable assumptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonlinear control of the minimum safety factor in tokamaks by optimal allocation of spatially moving electron cyclotron current drive

The minimum value of the safety factor profile is related to the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability of the plasma confined in a tokamak. Therefore, active control of the minimum safety factor may mitigate MHD instabilities that can degrade or even terminate plasma confinement. Typically, in most tokamak scenarios, the minimum safety factor evolves spatially with time, i.e., the location at which the safety factor achieves the minimum value changes with time. In addition to the inherent nonlinearities in the minimum safety factor evolution, its spatial variation makes the control design challenging. In particular, complexity in control design may arise from the need for time-dependent nonlinear models that account for spatial variation of the minimum safety factor. Furthermore, the minimum safety factor may drift to locations where the actuator authority is low. The problem of minimum safety factor control with target location tracking and moving electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) is addressed in this work. A nonlinear time-dependent model that incorporates the spatial variation of the minimum safety factor is presented. A nonlinear controller based on optimal feedback linearization is developed to track a target minimum safety factor. The proposed controller treats the ECCD position as a controllable variable. In other words, the controller prescribes the ECCD position (in addition to the non-inductive powers) in real time based on an optimal criterion that is defined a priori. This work also presents the steps necessary to integrate the minimum safety factor controller with a total energy controller to achieve multiple control objectives simultaneously. In conclusion, the proposed integrated control algorithm is tested using nonlinear simulations in the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) for a DIII-D tokamak scenario.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensor Placement Optimization Study for the Built Environment: Operational Use Cases

Systems of fixed-position radiation sensors can provide information that assists emergency responders following nuclear and radiological incidents. State, local, tribal, and territorial (SLTT) government agencies that implement systems of fixed-position sensors are faced with numerous decisions regarding sensor selection, quantity, and placement. To develop guidance on implementation of radiation detection systems, we simulated the release of radioactive material in an urban environment using a combination of three models: the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF), Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC), and Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) models. We then evaluated the performance of several hypothetical sensor systems. The small number of simulations we conducted are not sufficient to generate definitive design guidance for radiation sensor systems, but we did identify trends that would be of interest to emergency planners. For a scenario that releases 1000 curies of Cs-137, radiation detectors were needed at 500-meter intervals to have a high likelihood of event detection and to estimate source location and plume detection. We also noted that optimal detector altitude varied with distance to the source. We recommend additional research in this area be conducted to support developing sensor placement guidelines that expand on a range of locations, isotopes, activity levels, and different weather conditions. Original simulation strategies included a range of environments, additional radioisotopes (Am241 and AmBe), and a larger selection of sensor types. These types of expansions would support SLTT guidance on sensor system recommendations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2006

Scheduling Software for Complex Scenarios

Preparing a vehicle and its payload for a single launch is a complex process that involves thousands of operations. Because the equipment and facilities required to carry out these operations are extremely expensive and limited in number, optimal assignment and efficient use are critically important. Overlapping missions that compete for the same resources, ground rules, safety requirements, and the unique needs of processing vehicles and payloads destined for space impose numerous constraints that, when combined, require advanced scheduling. Traditional scheduling systems use simple algorithms and criteria when selecting activities and assigning resources and times to each activity. Schedules generated by these simple decision rules are, however, frequently far from optimal. To resolve mission-critical scheduling issues and predict possible problem areas, NASA historically relied upon expert human schedulers who used their judgment and experience to determine where things should happen, whether they will happen on time, and whether the requested resources are truly necessary.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low- n stability and plasma response to RMP in various STEP scenarios

The low-n (n is the toroidal mode number) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and plasma response are numerically investigated for various scenarios designed for STEP, that are relevant for the H-mode pedestal analysis. Control of the edge-localized modes (ELMs) with externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) is considered. Optimization of the ELM control coil current configuration, based on the computed plasma MHD response and well-established figures of merit validated on present-day experiments, finds reasonable robustness of a fixed coil phasing (for a given n-number) to control ELMs in all five STEP plasmas considered. Based on certain semi-empirical criteria, the required coil current to achieve ELM suppression is estimated to be about 10–20 kAt with the n = 1 or 2 RMP configuration and about 100–200 kAt for the n = 4 RMP. Systematic linear stability calculations are used to map out stability windows for the low-n kink-peeling modes, in terms of the ideal-wall location and variation of the edge safety factor q 95 with respect to the target design. The kink-peeling stability boundary is found to be generally sensitive to the q 95 variation, which has implications for achieving the quiescent H-mode regime in STEP. Full toroidal quasilinear initial-value simulations for these STEP plasmas find that generation of the edge-harmonic oscillations (EHOs) depends sensitively on the plasma scenario, the initial linear stability of the kink-peeling modes, the initial plasma toroidal flow and q 95 . In general, it is easier (more robust) to access the EHO-regime for two of the cases considered with smaller plasma volume and higher on-axis safety factor. Finally, quasilinear simulations find robust density pumpout due to applied RMPs in these STEP plasmas, but the effect on the plasma toroidal flow varies among different cases.

EHO↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗
NASA NTRS1996

Integrated Control Using the SOFFT Control Structure

The need for integrated/constrained control systems has become clearer as advanced aircraft introduced new coupled subsystems such as new propulsion subsystems with thrust vectoring and new aerodynamic designs. In this study, we develop an integrated control design methodology which accomodates constraints among subsystem variables while using the Stochastic Optimal Feedforward/Feedback Control Technique (SOFFT) thus maintaining all the advantages of the SOFFT approach. The Integrated SOFFT Control methodology uses a centralized feedforward control and a constrained feedback control law. The control thus takes advantage of the known coupling among the subsystems while maintaining the identity of subsystems for validation purposes and the simplicity of the feedback law to understand the system response in complicated nonlinear scenarios. The Variable-Gain Output Feedback Control methodology (including constant gain output feedback) is extended to accommodate equality constraints. A gain computation algorithm is developed. The designer can set the cross-gains between two variables or subsystems to zero or another value and optimize the remaining gains subject to the constraint. An integrated control law is designed for a modified F-15 SMTD aircraft model with coupled airframe and propulsion subsystems using the Integrated SOFFT Control methodology to produce a set of desired flying qualities.

Halyo, Nesim↗
DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Piloted Simulator Evaluation of Maneuvering Envelope Information for Flight Crew Awareness

The implementation and evaluation of an efficient method for estimating safe aircraft maneuvering envelopes are discussed. A Bayesian approach is used to produce a deterministic algorithm for estimating aerodynamic system parameters from existing noisy sensor measurements, which are then used to estimate the trim envelope through efficient high- fidelity model-based computations of attainable equilibrium sets. The safe maneuverability limitations are extended beyond the trim envelope through a robust reachability analysis derived from an optimal control formulation. The trim and maneuvering envelope limits are then conveyed to pilots through three axes on the primary flight display. To evaluate the new display features, commercial airline crews flew multiple challenging approach and landing scenarios in the full motion Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator at NASA Ames Research Center, as part of a larger research initiative to investigate the impact on the energy state awareness of the crew. Results show that the additional display features have the potential to significantly improve situational awareness of the flight crew.

maneuvers↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transformer-powered surrogates close the ICF simulation-experiment gap with extremely limited data

Abstract Recent advances in machine learning, specifically transformer architecture, have led to significant advancements in commercial domains. These powerful models have demonstrated superior capability to learn complex relationships and often generalize better to new data and problems. This paper presents a novel transformer-powered approach for enhancing prediction accuracy in multi-modal output scenarios, where sparse experimental data is supplemented with simulation data. The proposed approach integrates transformer-based architecture with a novel graph-based hyper-parameter optimization technique. The resulting system not only effectively reduces simulation bias, but also achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to the prior method. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on inertial confinement fusion experiments, where only 10 shots of real-world data are available, as well as synthetic versions of these experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trust Your Gut: Comparing Human and Machine Inference from Noisy Visualizations

People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6

human-machine collaboration↗