Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47

Sense and Avoid for Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems

The ability for small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) to safely operate beyond line of sight is of great interest to consumers, businesses, and scientific research. In this work, we investigate Sense and Avoid (SAA) algorithms for sUAS encounters using three 4k cameras for separation distances between 200m and 2000m. Video is recorded of different sUAS platforms designed to appear similar to expected air traffic, under varying weather conditions and flight encounter scenarios. University partners and NASA both developed SAA methods presented in this report.

Dolph, Chester V.↗

Landsat 9 Thermal Infrared Sensor 2 Architecture and Design

The Thermal Infrared Sensor 2 (TIRS-2) will fly aboard the Landsat 9 spacecraft and leverages the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) design currently flying on Landsat 8. TIRS-2 will provide similar science data as TIRS, but is not a buildto-print rebuild due to changes in requirements and improvements in absolute accuracy. The heritage TIRS design has been modified to reduce the influence of stray light and to add redundancy for higher reliability over a longer mission life. The TIRS-2 development context differs from the TIRS scenario, adding to the changes. The TIRS-2 team has also learned some lessons along the way.

Hair, Jason H.↗

The Last Orbit: Planning Cassini's Plummet into Saturn

Cassini’s final orbit around Saturn will culminate in a dramatic ending as the spacecraft plunges into the ringed planet’s atmosphere, never to escape or be heard from again. The last hours of the mission prior to the final loss of signal have some of the most unique and valuable science to date. Cassini will take a unique trajectory to dive deep into the atmosphere on its approach to final disposal and no spacecraft, Cassini included, has entered these depths of Saturn’s atmosphere. The science community has placed heavy emphasis onthis once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to inspect these deeper regions of Saturn’s atmosphere. The Cassini project specifically aims to collect the very last bits of data during the final plunge to get samples of the deepest regions before the spacecraft is lost forever. The desire to collect the final bits of data presents several challenges. Cassini’s Mission Planning (MP) team has developed an End of Mission (EOM) scenario to tackle these demands. The EOM scenario outlines the framework for the entire last orbit of the mission and details thestrategy for data collection and transmission. Attaining near real-time transmission is key for the acquisition of the very last bits of data. The Cassini spacecraft will use a new mode of operations to successfully achieve this real-time transmission. In addition to this primary investigation and planning for telecommunications, key risks have been studied within the realm of the last orbit. Ultimately, this paper shows how the Cassini Project plans to ensurethe return of every last bit of data before the spacecraft is consumed by Saturn forever.

Bittner, Molly E.↗

A Protoflight Lightweight Surface Manipulation System to Enable High-Load, Long-Reach Lunar Surface Operations

There is a current critical need under the Artemis program for a versatile, high-load, long reach manipulation system that can provide payload offloading and handling for lunar landers. The Lightweight Surface Manipulation System (LSMS) is a highly structurally efficient, long-reach robotic arm that can be sized for a wide range of missions and payload ranges. The LSMS has more than a decade of heritage and testing at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), including laboratory and field testing of multiple end-effector tools and operational scenarios. With the need for rapid development of a flight-proven offloading capability and the desire to have that device be reusable for future missions and services, a 4-year program was initiated this year under NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate, to develop and build a protoflight unit of the LSMS, capable of lifting 1,000 kg on the Moon at an 8-meter reach. The target mission is to fly on a large cargo lander as a technology demonstrator to validate self-leveling, deployment, and payload handling operations, with future flights adding additional tools and capabilities. This paper provides a summary of the prior decade of work on the LSMS, the current mission drivers and goals, and details the first year of development of the LSMS toward a protoflight unit.

LSMS↗

A Protoflight Lightweight Surface Manipulation System to Enable High-Load, Long-Reach Lunar Surface Operations

There is a current critical need under the Artemis program for a versatile, high-load, long reach manipulation system that can provide payload offloading and handling for lunar landers. The Lightweight Surface Manipulation System (LSMS) is a highly structurally efficient, long-reach robotic arm that can be sized for a wide range of missions and payload ranges. The LSMS has more than a decade of heritage and testing at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), including laboratory and field testing of multiple end-effector tools and operational scenarios. With the need for rapid development of a flight-proven offloading capability and the desire to have that device be reusable for future missions and services, a 4-year program was initiated this year under NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate, to develop and build a protoflight unit of the LSMS, capable of lifting 1,000 kg on the Moon at an 8-meter reach. The target mission is to fly on a large cargo lander as a technology demonstrator to validate self-leveling, deployment, and payload handling operations, with future flights adding additional tools and capabilities. This paper provides a summary of the prior decade of work on the LSMS, the current mission drivers and goals, and details the first year of development of the LSMS toward a protoflight unit.

lunar surface↗

Assessing Relay Communications for Mars Sample Return Surface Mission Concepts

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign would be a 3-mission campaign concept supported by NASA and ESA to return samples from the Mars surface. MSR would, for the first time ever, present a need to communicate with multiple surface assets that are co-located on Mars in a coordinated effort to accomplish the unified objective of fetching, transporting, and returning samples from Mars. Currently, Mars surface assets relay data to and from Earth using a number of orbiters in what’s known as the Mars Relay Network (MRN). This network is characterized by a small number of surface assets distributed across the Martian globe and a larger number of orbiters to provide relay services. As of June 2020, there are two surface assets for which five orbiters are providing relay. During the MSR Campaign, there would be two rovers and a lander that all would require relay communication from a small number of Mars orbiters to meet the aggressive MSR timeline. The inversion of the current MRN paradigm, a system of many surface assets requiring relay and few orbiters to provide relay, necessitates the unique challenge of optimally allocating relay passes to maximize the operational capability of all assets. The allocation must consider a large number of trade variables including Mars asset operational requirements and Earth ground system constraints, including staffing schedules, operations planning across time zones, and more. To address these telecommunication challenges, the Mars Asset Relay Mission Link Allocation Design Environment (MARMLADE) tool was developed. It is a MATLAB-based tool to assign orbiter passes or Direct-From-Earth (DFE) links to each of the three surface assets and quantify the operational efficiency of each surface asset.MARMLADE uses a data set of simulated Mars relay orbiter geometry and telecommunication capabilities provided by JPL’s Telecom Orbit Analysis and Simulation Tool (TOAST) software to compute which asset should get each pass based on a series of heuristics and predictions of all assets’ states. Within MARMLADE, the user can provide inputs including the option for time-based pass splitting, fixed FWD data rate capabilities, DFE communication capabilities, and link parameters allowing for the assessment of complex operations and hardware trades using surface mission operational efficiency as a primary figure of merit. As the MSR mission concepts continue to mature, MARMLADE is being used to assess ability of all MSR elements to meet the surface mission timeline requirements and to provide relay link allocations to each of the MSR surface assets.This paper will describe the motivation and design of the MARMLADE tool and how it is being used to perform campaign and mission level trades, generate requirements, and support development of the MSR surface mission scenarios.

Lee, Charles↗

Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture (CHP-IDA) TechPort May 2024

Future exploration missions to Mars will have increased need for crew autonomy. Crew Health & Performance (CHP) related data on the ISS is currently, manually downlinked and in disparate locations, which limits crew autonomy for future missions. The CHP-IDA project is developing a backend data system platform that grants the ability to seamlessly collect, store, process, and display CHP-related data for exploration missions. This platform allows for integration of data and advanced analytics that offer crew and ground teams better insight into the crew’s health and performance. It also enables applications that can improve the crew’s ability to provide more autonomous medical care during exploration missions. Data will be collected automatically to reduce crew and ground team time and effort and will synchronize across all in-mission vehicles, habitats, and ground as communication delay permits. The Human Research Program’s (HRP) Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project focused on this backend data architecture but for medical data only. The CHP-IDA project, a joint effort between HRP’s Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element and the Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT), expands this capability to all relevant CHP-related data. The additional inputs from nutrition, environment, exercise, radiation, and any other relevant sources will give more insight into crew’s health and performance. Currently, the Human Systems Engineering and Integration Division at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is designing the system. The team completed a system requirements review (SRR) in FY22 and now the focus is on core software development, testbed buildup, and use case scenario demonstration. An end-to-end demonstration with multiple data sources across CHP domains is schedule for the end of FY24 where all three focus areas will be displayed. Following this ground demo, the software will be completed, tested, and validated for flight.

Courtney M Schkurko↗

OnAIR: Applications of The NASA On-Board Artificial Intelligence Research Platform

Infusing artificial intelligence algorithms into production aerospace systems can be challenging due to costs, timelines, and a risk averse industry. We introduce the Onboard Artificial Intelligence Research (OnAIR) platform, an open source software pipeline and cognitive architecture tool which enables full life cycle AI research for on-board intelligent systems. We begin a description and user walk-through of the OnAIR tool. Next we describe four use cases of OnAIR for both research and deployed onboard applications, detailing their use of OnAIR and the benefits it provided to development and function of each respective scenario. We conclude with remarks on future work, future planned deployments and goals for forward progression of OnAIR as a tool to enable larger AI and aerospace research community.

Cognitive Architecture↗

An Experimental Analysis on the CNS Simulator Comparing Human Performance between Operators and Students

This study, as a previous study of the SHEEP project, aims to identify differences in human performance data through experiments with students and operators using CNS (Compact Nuclear Simulator). To achieve this goal, this experiment seeks to analyze the correlation of measured human performance between students and operators through a randomized factorial experiment design. Five human performances are measured. In addition, several scenarios and related procedures have been developed for the CNS experiments.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Leveraging Machine Learning Capabilities for the Characterization of Irradiated Uranium: A Case Study of Analysis Methods for Nuclear Safeguards and Nuclear Forensics

Nondestructively determining the initial enrichment of irradiated uranium is a complex and laborious multivariable problem due to the presence of fission products. This work demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning to analyze gamma-ray spectral data to determine initial enrichment without knowledge of the decay time of the sample. The approach developed is agnostic to the particular scenario and is applicable to a wide variety of applications in nuclear forensics and nuclear safeguards. We irradiated 5 mg uranium standard reference materials at discrete enrichment values ranging from 0.02% to 97% 235 U (weight percent) in UT Austin’s Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory TRIGA Mark II 1.1 MW research reactor, allowed each to decay for 8 hours, and then measured each sample via gamma-ray spectrometry for 50 hours post-irradiation yielding 1,400 individual gamma-ray spectra discretized into 8,192 energy bins. We then trained decision trees models to analyze individual gamma-ray spectra and estimate the associated initial enrichment without knowledge of the time since end of irradiation. We evaluated the performance of the models with a reserved test set not used for training or calibrating the model. A decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 2.3% (weight percent 235 U). Next, we implemented a principal component analysis pre-processing routine of the gamma-ray spectrometry data to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from 8,192 channels in the spectrum to 10 principal components while retaining over 99% of the inherent variance in the data. Decision tree models constructed with these data demonstrated decreased mean absolute error in enrichment determination, reduced computational time, and decreased complexity. A single decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 0.05% (weight percent 235 U). Furthermore, we analyzed these models with learning curves to ensure that overfitting did not occur. The capabilities provided by these models can be naturally extended to other application-focused measurements in the fields of nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Drescher, Adam↗

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Efficient ECCD non-inductive plasma current start-up, ramp-up, and sustainment for an ST fusion reactor

The elimination of the need for an Ohmic heating solenoid may be the most impactful design driver for the realization of economical compact fusion tokamak reactor systems. However, this would require fully non-inductive start-up and current ramp-up from zero plasma current and low electron temperature of sub-keV to the full plasma current of ~10–15 MA at 20–30 keV electron temperature. To address this challenge, an efficient solenoid-free start-up and ramp-up scenario utilizing a low-field-side-launched extraordinary mode at the fundamental electron cyclotron harmonic frequency (X–I) is proposed, which has more than two orders of magnitude higher electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) efficiency than the conventional ECCD for the sub-keV start-up regime. A time dependent model was developed to simulate the start-up scenarios. For the Spherical Tokamak Advanced Reactor (STAR) (Menard et al 2023 Next-Step Low-Aspect-Ratio Tokamak Design Studies (IAEA)), it was found that to fully non-inductively ramp-up to 15 MA, it would take about 25 MW of EC power at 170 GHz. Because of the relatively large plasma volume of STAR, radiation losses must be considered. It is important to make sure that high Z impurities are kept sufficiently low during the early current start-up phase where the temperature is sub-keV range. Since the initial current ramp up takes place at a factor of ten lower density compared to the sustained regimes, it is important to transition into a higher bootstrap fraction discharge at lower density to minimize the ECCD power requirement during the densification. For the sustainment phase an array of eight gyrotron launchers with a total of about 60 MW of fundamental O-mode was found to be sufficient to provide the required axis-peaked external current drive. High efficiencies between 19–57 kA MW –1 were found with optimal aiming, and these were resilient to small changes in aiming angles and density and temperature profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evolution of Scenario Generation Capabilities in the ExaSGD Project

High-fidelity renewable energy scenarios and rare-event high-impact contingencies are essential for modeling operations and infrastructure expansion of the next generation power grids using exascale computing resources. As the ExaSGD project progressed, our capabilities for generating scenarios for modeling wind power output at multiple wind farms significantly improved, evolving from the use of independent random perturbations to importance sampling-based techniques capturing representative spatial-temporal relations. Contingency generation also improved, evolving from standard N-1 techniques to probabilistic models of infrastructure damage resulting from extreme weather events. We review the developments in the realistic intermittent-energy scenario forecasting and extreme-event contingency creation as the ExaSGD project progressed and discuss the future work in these areas.

economic dispatch↗

Integrated Process Testing of MSR Salt Spill Accidents

Part of the licensing process for new nuclear reactors requires vendors to assess the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios using accident progression modeling. The accident scenario that will likely be evaluated by all molten salt reactor (MSR) developers is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). The development of accident progression models requires experimental data to inform which processes to incorporate, to enable the calculation of parameters to model these processes, and to validate the model predictions. The data should quantify the sensitivities of key processes (e.g., molten salt spreading, heat transfer, containment structure corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, results from integrated process tests that quantify coupled processes are required to validate systems-level models. This report documents results from integrated process tests conducted on simulated molten salt spill accidents. The generated experimental data simultaneously quantify the heat transfer behavior of the spilled salt, compositional changes to the bulk salt, and the release of surrogate fission products from the spilled salt as aerosol particles. All tests that were conducted used FLiNaK doped with surrogate fission products, and the variables that were evaluated included the initial salt temperature and the concentration of surrogate fission products present in the salt. The major accomplishments of this work include identifying surrogate fuel salt compositions that provide insight into the dispersal behavior of radionuclides of potential significance to the source term, employing previously developed methods and measurement techniques to simultaneously measure key processes, generating data on the coupled processes of molten salt heat transfer and surrogate fission product release as aerosol particles, demonstrating new test methods for real-time monitoring of the flow rate of the spill and aerosol size quantification in an argon atmosphere, and developing a mass transfer model for cesium and iodine release from molten FLiNaK to provide insight into aerosol formation by vapor condensation. The same methodology applied herein can be employed to study different salt compositions of interest to MSR developers, different environmental conditions, and other variables that are relevant to postulated accident scenarios. The insights gained from these integrated process tests conducted at a laboratory scale will be incorporated into future integral effects tests conducted at an engineering scale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

Linsky, Thomas W.↗

Developing an Analytical Framework for Cumulative Effects

The extended dry storage scenario for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the United States introduces the possibility of more than one transportation campaign to move the SNF from its point of origin to one or more interim storage facilities before it reaches its final destination. While the structural integrity of SNF and its storage and transportation systems are often evaluated under single event loading conditions, the reality is that a single SNF system will experience multiple structural loading events during its life cycle, the number and severity of which will depend on its individual circumstances. SNF systems will also be subjected to environmental exposure that will affect their temperature and the potential for cracks to develop in the SNF canister walls. Considered separately, many different events and scenarios might be strong enough to challenge the integrity of SNF cladding and the storage and transportations canisters that contain SNF. But considered together, over the full life cycle of an SNF system, there is the possibility that individual low-magnitude events could cause enough incremental damage to components of the SNF system to challenge its structural integrity if the time span is long enough or if the life cycle includes a sufficient number of loading events. The concern is that the cumulative effect of relatively small mechanical loads, thermal stresses, or cracking can add up to conditions that could compromise SNF or its containment structures. This report is a first step in establishing an analysis framework for evaluating these cumulative effects.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Understanding Competing Risks

Highlights: • Clinicians and researchers need to be cognizant of competing risks (ie, the occurrence of an event that precludes future development of the outcome of interest). • Censoring is appropriate when a patient being censored at a particular time (eg, owing to loss to follow-up) is deemed to have approximately the same future risk of developing the outcome of interest as patients still being followed, and when the reason for censoring is not related to events of interest. • Censoring is not appropriate in many scenarios; for example, a dead patient can never develop a future cancer recurrence or late effect. • Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis is commonly used for a time-to-event analysis when the primary outcome (eg, overall survival) has no meaningful competing risk and censoring is appropriate. Cox proportional hazards modeling can be used for multivariable analysis to examine the association between covariates and the primary outcome. • In the presence of competing events, incorrect use of the KM analysis will likely lead to an overestimation of the risk of the outcome of interest and biased estimates from both univariable and multivariable analyses. Therefore, KM usually should not be used to determine local recurrence risk because humanity is always at risk for dying, which is a competing risk. • A competing risk analysis is therefore most appropriate when there are competing events to the primary outcome of interest. The most commonly used multivariable model in these situations is the Fine-Gray model. • Many fundamental questions in radiation oncology—local and regional recurrence, treatment-related toxicity—are best addressed using competing risk methodologies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Exploration Medical System Technical Development

The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element systems engineering goals include defining the technical system needed to implement exploration medical capabilities for Mars. This past year, scenarios captured in the medical system concept of operations laid the foundation for systems engineering technical development work. The systems engineering team analyzed scenario content to identify interactions between the medical system, crewmembers, the exploration vehicle, and the ground system. This enabled the definition of functions the medical system must provide and interfaces to crewmembers and other systems. These analyses additionally lead to the development of a conceptual medical system architecture. The work supports the ExMC community-wide understanding of the functional exploration needs to be met by the medical system, the subsequent development of medical system requirements, and the system verification and validation approach utilizing terrestrial analogs and precursor exploration missions.

McGuire, K.↗