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At least 847 records · Page 47

5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior [Slides]

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better integrate friction constitutive laws for faults to improve our ability to predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites. We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, using lab measurements of friction parameters, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. These simulations will enable exploration of various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting seismic amplitudes with machine learning

The accurate estimation of seismic wave amplitude is vital to precisely determine the yield, magnitude, and event discrimination possible for a given network – a critical element in nuclear explosion monitoring. This task is complicated by several factors, including but not limited to radiation pattern, scattering effects, and crustal variations, which can lead to the attenuation or amplification of amplitude along a given raypath. In this report, we explore the novel application of machine learning to the task of seismic amplitude estimation by training a simple Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on an S-wave amplitude dataset from Lai et al. (2019). Attributes from this dataset used as input to the ANN included event-station distances, station locations (latitude, longitude), event locations (latitude, longitude), event depths, event magnitudes, radiation patterns, signal-to noise ratio (SNR) measurements (average-amplitude, peak-to-trough, maximum peak), and signal periods. We find that the trained ANN predicts S-wave amplitudes with a modest tendency toward underestimating the actual values, as indicated by a linear regression between predicted and actual data (slope: 0.892, intercept: -0.651). These results suggest that an ANN can perform this task, with potential for significant improvements through improved datasets, architectures, and parameter tuning.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Iraq Based on the Updated Earthquake Catalog (1900-2021) and Ground Motion Characteristics

Onur et al. (2017) compiled the first comprehensive earthquake catalog for Iraq, covering 1900 to 2009 within 26°–40°N latitude and 36°–51°E longitude. This catalog was utilized in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) by Abdulnaby et al. (2020) to aid in updating Iraq’s building code seismic provisions. Recently, we have updated the earthquake catalog for Iraq by adding earthquakes recorded from 2010 to 2021 and directly calculating moment magnitude (Mw) for about 2,800 earthquakes using the coda envelope methodology and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (CRADA Final Report)

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC ("LLNS"), as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ("LLNL"), The Regents of the University of California, as manager and operator of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Collectively, Contractors) and Nanometrics, Inc. ("Participant"), to develop a toolkit called "Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION)" that includes a decision tree method for operational forecasting of induced seismicity rates related to fluid disposal operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

FY 2025 End of Year Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) and Seismometers

This end-of-year report summarizes progress on using seismic monitoring to detect, associate, and locate anomalous vibration signals that may indicate potential containment breaches. The work focused on four key tasks: 1. Developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data from multiple sensing modalities. 2. Refining and implementing detection and association algorithms to generate a catalog of anomalous underground activities. 3. Testing and improving distributed acoustic sensing amplitude-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. 4. Testing and refining seismic array polarization-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. This report provides a brief recap of results from the FY25 midyear report (Tasks 1 and 2) and presents new findings from geolocation methods (Tasks 3 and 4).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The propagation of seismic waves, misinformation, and disinformation from the 2024-10-05 M 4.5 Iran earthquake

The 2024-10-05 Iran M 4.5 earthquake took place at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. We perform a discrimination and moment tensor analysis and identify a shallow-dipping, reverse fault source commensurate with the compressional setting of the Iranian interior. Nonetheless, the event's aftermath saw widespread dissemination of misinformation, and potentially active disinformation, concluding that it was in fact a test of an Iranian nuclear weapon. The 'evidence' for many of these claims was based on inaccurate interpretation of seismic data. In this paper, we analyze how geophysical 'fake news' propagated through social media (mainly Twitter/X) following this event, eventually gaining traction in mainstream, earned media. This event is an illustrative warning of how seismic data can be misinterpreted and/or manipulated in public discourse.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A NEW ANALYSIS OF THE TWO CLASSICAL ZZ CETI WHITE DWARFS GD 165 AND ROSS 548. II. SEISMIC MODELING

We present the second of a two-part seismic analysis of the bright, hot ZZ Ceti stars GD 165 and Ross 548. In this second part, we report the results of detailed searches in parameter space for identifying an optimal model for each star that can account well for the observed periods, while being consistent with the spectroscopic constraints derived in our first paper. We find optimal models for each target that reproduce the six observed periods well within ∼0.3% on the average. We also find that there is a sensitivity on the core composition for Ross 548, while there is practically none for GD 165. Our optimal model of Ross 548, with its thin envelope, indeed shows weight functions for some confined modes that extend relatively deep into the interior, thus explaining the sensitivity of the period spectrum on the core composition in that star. In contrast, our optimal seismic model of its spectroscopic sibling, GD 165 with its thick envelope, does not trap/confine modes very efficiently, and we find weight functions for all six observed modes that do not extend into the deep core, hence accounting for the lack of sensitivity in that case. Furthermore, we exploit after the fact the observed multiplet structure that we ascribe to rotation. We are able to map the rotation profile in GD 165 (Ross 548) over the outermost ∼20% (∼5%) of its radius, and we find that the profile is consistent with solid-body rotation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Absolute Magnitudes of Seismic Red Clumps in the Kepler Field and SAGA: The Age Dependency of the Distance Scale

Red clump stars are fundamental distance indicators in astrophysics, although theoretical stellar models predict a dependence of absolute magnitudes with age. This effect is particularly strong below ∼2 Gyr, but even above this limit a mild age dependence is still expected. We use seismically identified red clump stars in the Kepler field for which we have reliable distances, masses, and ages from the SAGA survey, to first explore this effect. By excluding red clump stars with masses larger than 1.6 M{sub ⊙} (corresponding to ages younger than 2 Gyr), we derive robust calibrations linking intrinsic colors to absolute magnitudes in the following photometric systems: Strömgren by, Johnson BV, Sloan griz, 2MASS JHK {sub s}, and WISE W1W2W3. With the precision achieved we also detect a slope of absolute magnitudes ∼0.020±0.003 mag Gyr{sup −1} in the infrared, implying that distance calibrations of clump stars can be off by up to ∼0.2 mag in the infrared (over the range from 2 to 12 Gyr) if their ages are unknown. Even larger uncertainties affect optical bands, because of the stronger interdependency of absolute magnitudes on colors and age. Our distance calibrations are ultimately based on asteroseismology, and we show how the distance scale can be used to test the accuracy of seismic scaling relations. Within the uncertainties our calibrations are in agreement with those built upon local red clumps with Hipparcos parallaxes, although we find a tension, which, if confirmed, would imply that scaling relations overestimate the radii of red clump stars by 2 ± 2%. Data releases post Gaia DR1 will provide an important testbed for our results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data for Monitoring Fracture Saturation with Internal Transportable Seismic Sources and Twin Neural Networks

Seismic coda-wave analysis is a well-developed method for detecting subtle physical changes in complex media by measuring arrival times in the late-arriving energy from multiply-scattered or reflected waves. However, a challenge arises when multiply-scattered waves are not sufficiently separated in time from the direct arrivals to provide a clear coda wave train. Additional complications for monitoring changes in fracture systems arise when the signals originate from unsynchronized internal sources, such as natural induced seismicity, from acoustic emission, or from transportable intra-fracture sources (chattering dust), that generate uncontrolled signals that vary in arrival time, amplitude and frequency content. Here, we use a twin neural network (also known as a Siamese neural network) for dimensionality reduction to analyze signals from chattering dust to classify the fluid saturation state of a synthetic fracture system. The twin neural network with shared weights generates a low-dimensional representation of the data input by minimizing contrastive loss, serving as the input to a multiclass classifier that accurately classifies whether multiple fractures in a fracture system are fully saturated or partially saturated, or whether a change in saturation has occurred in different fractures in the system. These results show that information buried in unresolved codas from uncontrolled sources can be extracted using machine learning to monitor the evolution of fracture systems caused by physical and chemical processes even when the scattered and direct wave fields overlap.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Passive seismic experiment

The establishment of a network of seismic stations on the lunar surface as a result of equipment installed by Apollo 12, 14, and 15 flights is described. Four major discoveries obtained by analyzing seismic data from the network are discussed. The use of the system to detect vibrations of the lunar surface and the use of the data to determine the internal structure, physical state, and tectonic activity of the moon are examined.

Latham, G. V.↗

Satellite Relay Telemetry of Seismic Data in Earthquake Prediction and Control

The Satellite Telemetry Earthquake Monitoring Program was started to evaluate the applicability of satellite relay telemetry in the collection of seismic data from a large number of dense seismograph clusters laid out along the major fault systems of western North America. Prototype clusters utilizing phone-line telemetry were then being installed by the National Center for Earthquake Research in 3 regions along the San Andreas fault in central California; and the experience of installing and operating the clusters and in reducing and analyzing the seismic data from them was to provide the raw materials for evaluation in the satellite relay telemetry project. The principal advantages of the satellite relay system over commercial telephone or microwave systems were: (1) it could be made less prone to massive failure during a major earthquake; (2) it could be extended readily into undeveloped regions; and (3) it could provide flexible, uniform communications over large sections of major global tectonic zones. Fundamental characteristics of a communications system to cope with the large volume of raw data collected by a short-period seismograph network are discussed.

Jackson, W. H.↗

Evaluation of feasibility of mapping seismically active faults in Alaska

The author has identified the following significant results. The Yukon-Tanana uplands north and east of Fairbanks appear, on ERTS-1 imagery, to be composed of a number of large-scale (approximately 100 kilometers square) crustal blocks. The boundaries of these blocks appear to be defined by a number of northeast-striking lineaments which form the major river valleys of the area. Principal among these are the valleys of the Salcha River, the Cehan River, and the Chatanika River. These lineaments are all seismically active, and are thus presumed to be faults. This parallel set of lineaments appears to be intersected at various angles by a secondary set of faults trending generally north to south. The larger earthquakes in the area occur at the intersections of the two sets. It appears that seismicity of this part of Alaska may be conceptually represented by the grinding together of rigid blocks, with earthquakes occurring along their common boundaries and at the intersections where three or more blocks come in contact.

Gedney, L. D.↗

Passive seismic experiment

The design, deployment, and operation of the Apollo 16 passive seismic experiment (PSE) are discussed. Since activation, all elements of the PSE have operated as planned, with the exception of the sensor thermal control system. Significant progress in the measurement of meteoroid flux in near-earth space has been made, along with dilineation of active moonquake source regions. The data obtained indicate that moonquakes are concentrated at great depth (800 to 1000 km) and that the apparent disparity between meteoroid flux estimtes based on lunar crater counts and those from earth-based observations can be resolved by seismic measurements in favor of the lower flux indicated by the crater count method. The results obtained from the PSE are summarized and their significance is discussed in detail.

Latham, G. V.↗

Moonquakes and lunar tectonism results from the Apollo passive seismic experiment.

The natural seismicity of the moon appears to be very low relative to that of the earth. However, moonquakes do occur. They are detected by the stations of the Apollo seismic network at an average rate of 1800/yr at Station 14 and at lower rates at Stations 12 and 15. All of the moonquakes are small, and in the few cases for which the foci have been located, they occur at great depth (about 800 km). The frequency of occurrence of moonquakes is strongly correlated with lunar tides. The dynamic processes that generate quakes are clearly much less vigorous within the moon than they are within the earth.

Latham, G.↗

Apollo 17 seismic profiling - Probing the lunar crust.

Apollo 17 seismic data are interpreted to determine the structure of the lunar crust to a depth of several kilometers. Seismic velocity increases in a marked stepwise manner beneath the Taurus-Littrow region at the Apollo 17 site. A thickness of about 1200 meters is indicated for the infilling mare basalts at Taurus-Littrow. The apparent velocity is high (about 4 kilometers per second) in the material immediately underlying the basalts.

Kovach, R. L.↗