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Results for “Reliability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Uncertainty quantification for evaluating the impacts of fracture zone on pressure build-up and ground surface uplift during geological CO₂ sequestration

A series of numerical test cases reflecting broad and realistic ranges of geological formation and preexisting fault properties was developed to systematically evaluate the impacts of preexisting faults on pressure buildup and ground surface uplift during CO₂ injection. Numerical test cases were conducted using a coupled hydro-geomechanical simulator, eSTOMP (extreme-scale Subsurface Transport over Multiple Phases). For efficient sensitivity analysis and reliable construction of a reduced-order model, a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to effectively sample a high-dimensional input parameter space to explore uncertainties associated with hydrologic, geologic, and geomechanical properties. The uncertainty quantification results show that the impacts on geomechanical response from the pre-existing faults mainly depend on reservoir and fault permeability. When the fault permeability is two to three orders of magnitude smaller than the reservoir permeability, the fault can be considered as an impermeable block that resists fluid transport in the reservoir, which causes pressure increase near the fault. When the fault permeability is close to the reservoir permeability, or higher than 10⁻¹⁵ m² in this study, the fault can be considered as a conduit that penetrates the caprock, connecting the fluid flow between the reservoir and the upper rock.

CO₂ geological sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2017

Comparison of Mutual Awareness in Analog vs. Digital Control Rooms

Control rooms in nuclear power plants are complex, collaborative working environments rife with potential for human error. As control rooms evolve from analog to digital interface environments, crew communication strategies must change as well. Operators in the analog control room operate the plant and communicate with each other with the help of control boards with large control panels, meters, and switches. Reactor operators could choose a particular set of controls on the particular control board which corresponds to the part of the system of interest. Visual display units (VDU), which became a fixture in the control rooms with the shift to digital human-machine interfaces (HMI), bring benefits for safety and flexibility combining information from various sources. With the increase in automation and the use of digital HMIs operators received their personal sitting workstations where they are able to navigate and operate the plant. The amount of information increased as well as the complexity of monitoring and analyzing the system states. Also computerized systems cause operators to get absorbed by their personal screens and reduce interaction between the crew members. Therefore, the collaboration and coordination of task demands requires vigilance and mutual awareness. The level of automation has an influence on the level of mutual awareness experienced by operators in the control rooms. Teams function to carry out highly interdependent tasks, requiring synthesis and sharing of information to achieve common goals. Improving the performance of the team necessitates the operators to focus on the system, the surrounding environment, and situational awareness about the system states. Collaboration of team members is critical when employing the digital operating systems as the acute awareness of the overall progress of the group and individual activities of the operators drives the team to the desired end-states of the plant operations. Out-of-the loop (OOTL) performance problems can be referred to as the lack of supervisory control, system monitoring, and information processing in the digital HMIs. Under some circumstances Senior Reactor Operators (SRO) struggle to follow the actions of other Reactor Operators (RO) because with the new digital interfaces SROs lose track of how the procedures are carried out by ROs, which results in the loss of three way communication. Mutual awareness plays a significant role in keeping the SROs in the loop of plant operations. This paper will investigate, through literature review and expert interviews, the impact and human errors attributed to the increasing complexity of new digital main control rooms. Comparison of the new digital interfaces with the analog interfaces in nuclear power plants has the potential to shed light on increasing mutual awareness and three way communications between the SROs and ROs. Further, identification of the human errors and human actions can provide beneficial information, suggesting significant and critical improvements that can be implemented in the main control rooms to increase safety and reliability of new technology. Additionally, insights on mutual awareness for analog vs. digital control rooms can serve to improve human reliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Improved description of the πN-scattering phenomenology at low energies in covariant baryon chiral perturbation theory

We present a novel analysis of the πN scattering amplitude in covariant baryon chiral perturbation theory up to O(p{sup 3}) within the extended-on-mass-shell renormalization scheme and including the Δ(1232) explicitly in the δ-counting. We take the hadronic phase shifts provided by partial wave analyses as basic experimental information to fix the low-energy constants. Subsequently, we study in detail the various observables and low-energy theorems related to the πN scattering amplitude. In particular, we discuss the results and chiral expansion of the phase shifts, the threshold coefficients, the Goldberger–Treiman relation, the pion–nucleon sigma term and the extrapolation onto the subthreshold region. The chiral representation of the amplitude in the theory with the Δ presents a good convergence from very low energies in the subthreshold region up to energies above threshold and below the Δ(1232) peak, leading also to a phenomenological description perfectly consistent with the one reported by the respective partial wave analyses and independent determinations. We conclude that a model-independent and systematic framework to analyze πN-scattering observables using directly experimental data shall be possible in covariant baryon chiral perturbation theory. -- Highlights: •The chiral series shows a better convergence than previous analyses. •Improved prediction of the πN scattering phenomenology. •This analysis connects reliably the subthreshold and physical regions for the first time using ChPT. •Extraction of an accurate value of σ{sub πN} from experimental data. •σ{sub πN} extracted is compatible with related phenomenology.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Holistic modeling framework of demand response considering multiti-mescale uncertainties for capacity value estimation

Demand response (DR) is regarded as an effective tool to mitigate the operational uncertainties and enhance the reliability of power supply in smart grids. However, with the time-varying attribute, to what extent DR could be committed is a major concern for utilities. This paper proposes a new approach to assess the capacity value (CV) of DR with a methodological framework developed for the uncertainty modeling of DR. The novelty of this framework is its inclusion of both physical and human-related analyses in DR programs, which allows the characterization of DR variability to be accurate for the CV estimation. To achieve this, the demand-side activities in DR are disaggregated into several modules as load usage, contract selection and actual performance. Based on their intrinsic properties, different parametric models are proposed to represent the impact of each technical/social factor on the availability of DR. The parameters of these models are determined using learning based algorithms to adapt to various behavior patterns of consumers. The outputs of the framework will serve as the quantifiers of DR capability and are integrated into reliability-based CV evaluation. The results of case studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Capacity value↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Persistent global greening over the last four decades using novel long-term vegetation index data with enhanced temporal consistency

Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite observations have provided the longest global daily records from 1980s, but the remaining temporal inconsistency in vegetation index datasets has hindered reliable assessment of vegetation greenness trends. To tackle this, we generated novel global long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Near-Infrared Reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) datasets derived from AVHRR and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We addressed residual temporal inconsistency through three-step post processing including cross-sensor calibration among AVHRR sensors, orbital drifting correction for AVHRR sensors, and machine learning-based harmonization between AVHRR and MODIS. After applying each processing step, we confirmed the enhanced temporal consistency in terms of detrended anomaly, trend and interannual variability of NDVI and NIRv at calibration sites. Our refined NDVI and NIRv datasets showed a persistent global greening trend over the last four decades (NDVI: 0.0008 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0003 yr -1 ), contrasting with those without the three processing steps that showed rapid greening trends before 2000 (NDVI: 0.0017 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0008 yr -1 ) and weakened greening trends after 2000 (NDVI: 0.0004 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0001 yr -1 ). These findings highlight the importance of minimizing temporal inconsistency in long-term vegetation index datasets, which can support more reliable trend analysis in global vegetation response to climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pervaporative Dehydration of 2,3-Butanediol by Dense Poly(vinylidene fluoride) Hollow Fiber Membranes: Parameter Estimation, Process Design, and Technoeconomic Evaluation under Uncertainty

Pervaporation, combined with other separation processes, can effectively remove water from fermentation product streams, making it highly suitable for purifying alcohols like 2,3-butanediol (BDO). In this study, a dense poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) hollow fiber membrane module prototype was fabricated for BDO dehydration, achieving >0.2 LMH total flux and >95% BDO rejection. With a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, Bayesian inference was used to quantify the uncertainty of the permeance parameters. A membrane cascade model was developed to scale up a process that purifies a preconcentrated BDO feed (70 wt %) to high purity (90 wt %). Through propagation of the uncertainty of the parameters and sensitivity analyses of the process variables, a cascade design was recommended. Despite data and model limitations, the framework enabled a reliable system analysis and economic evaluation, validated through tight confidence intervals in key process metrics, establishing the foundation for future applications of Bayesian methods in membrane-based processes.

Animal feed↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of lateral amorphous selenium photodetectors for low-photon and VUV detection at cryogenic temperatures

The performance of amorphous selenium (a-Se) as a cryogenic photodetector material is evaluated through a series of experiments using laterally structured devices operated in a custom optical test stand. These studies investigate the response of a-Se detectors to low-photon fluxes at high electric fields near avalanche conditions, the linearity of the photoconductive response over a wide dynamic range and the direct detection of narrowband 130 nm vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) illumination. At 87 K, matched-filter analysis shows reliable single-shot detection with efficiencies ≥80% and area under the curve (AUC) ≥ 0.85 using as few as ∼ 6800 incident 401 nm photons, corresponding to ∼ 3400 photons within field-active regions after accounting for geometric constraints. Measurements are performed at cryogenic temperatures using calibrated photon fluxes derived from a silicon photomultiplier reference and a characterized optical filter stack. Additional experiments using a tellurium-doped a-Se (a-SeTe) device explore the material's behavior under identical test conditions and demonstrate that avalanche is achievable in a-SeTe at cryogenic temperatures. The results demonstrate reproducible low-noise operation, VUV sensitivity and field-dependent gain behavior in a lateral a-Se architecture, representing the first reported observation of avalanche multiplication in laterally structured a-Se and a-SeTe devices at cryogenic temperatures. These findings support the potential integration of laterally structured a-Se devices into next-generation pixelated liquid-argon time projection chambers (TPCs) requiring scalable, high-field-compatible photon detection systems.

Amorphous selenium↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-675: Down-Regulating the Expression of Cdc42 and Inhibition of Migration of A549 with Combined Treatment of Ionizing Radiation and Sevoflurane

Purpose: Cdc42 is involved in cell transformation, proliferation, invasion and metastasis of human cancer cells. Cdc42 overexpression has been reported in several types of cancers. This study investigated the combined treatment effects of ionizing radiation and sevoflurane on down-regulating Cdc42 expression and suppressing migration of human adenocarcinoma cell line A549. Methods: Samples of A549 cells with Cdc42 overexpression were created and Cdc42 expression was determined by Western blotting. Increase of migration speed by Cdc42-HA overexpression was confirmed with an initial in-vitro scratch assay. The cells grown in culture media were separated into 2 groups of 6 samples: one for the control and the other was treated with 4% sevoflurane for 5hrs prior to a single-fraction radiation of 4Gy using a 6MV beam. Cell migration speeds of the 2 groups were measured with an initial in-vitro scratch assay. The scratch was created with a pipette tip immediately after treatment and images at 4 post-treatment time points (0h, 3h, 6h, 12h) were acquired. The distance between the two separated sides at 0h was used as reference and subsequent changes of the distance over time was defined as the cell migration speed. Image processing and measurement were performed with an in-house software. The experiment was repeated three times independently to evaluate the repeatability and reliability. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 19.0. Results: Western blotting showed the treatment down-regulated Cdc42 overexpression. Quantitative analysis and two-tailed t-test showed that cell migration speed of the treated group was higher than the control group at all time points after treatment (p < 0.02). Conclusion: Combined treatment of 6MV photon and sevoflurane can cause the effects of down-regulating Cdc42 overexpression and decrease of migration speed of A549 cells which provides potential of clinical benefit for the cancer therapy. More investigation is needed to further quantify the benefits of the combined therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-AB-BRA-07: Distortion-Free 3D Diffusion MRI On An MRI-Guided Radiotherapy System for Longitudinal Tumor Response Assessment

Purpose: To develop a reliable, 3D distortion-free diffusion MRI technique for longitudinal tumor response assessment and MRI-guided adaptive radiotherapy(RT). Methods: A diffusion prepared 3D turbo spin echo readout (DP-TSE) sequence was developed and compared with the conventional diffusion-weighted single-shot echo-planar-imaging (DW-ssEPI) sequence in a commercially available diffusion phantom, and one head-and-neck and one brain cancer patient on an MRI-guided RT system (ViewRay). In phantom study, the geometric fidelity was quantified as the ratio between the left-right (RL) and anterior-posterior (AP) dimension. Ten slices were measured on DP-TSE, DW-ssEPI and standard TSE images where the later was used as the geometric reference. ADC accuracy was verified at both 0°C (reference ADC available) and room temperature with a range of diffusivity between 0.35 and 2.0*10{sup −3}mm{sup 2}/s. The ADC reproducibility was assessed based on 8 room-temperature measurements on 6 different days. In the pilot single-slice in-vivo study, CT images were used as the geometric reference, and ADC maps from both diffusion sequences were compared. Results: Distortion and susceptive-related artifact were severe in DW-ssEPI, with significantly lower RL/AP ratio (0.9579±0.0163) than DP-TSE (0.9990±0.0031) and TSE (0.9995±0.0031). ADCs from the two diffusion sequences both matched well with the vendor-provided values at 0°C; however DW-ssEPI fails to provide accurate ADC for high diffusivity vials at room temperature due to high noise level (10 times higher than DP-TSE). The DP-TSE sequence had excellent ADC reproducibility with <4% ADC variation among 8 separate measurements. In patient study, DP-TSE exhibited substantially improved geometric reliability. ROI analysis in ADC maps generated from DP-TSE and DW-ssEPI showed <5% difference where high b-value images were excluded from the latter approach due to excessive noise level. Conclusion: A diffusion MRI sequence with excellent geometric fidelity, accurate and highly reproducible ADC measurements was proposed for longitudinal tumor response assessment using an MRI-guided RT system. Yu Gao acknowledges research support from ViewRay.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

FPDetect: Efficient Reasoning About Stencil Programs Using Selective Direct Evaluation

We present FPDetect, a low-overhead approach for detecting logical errors and soft errors affecting stencil computations without generating false positives. We develop an offline analysis that tightly estimates the number of floating-point bits preserved across stencil applications. This estimate rigorously bounds the values expected in the data space of the computation. Violations of this bound can be attributed with certainty to errors. FPDetect helps synthesize error detectors customized for user-specified levels of accuracy and coverage. FPDetect also enables overhead reduction techniques based on deploying these detectors coarsely in space and time. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the practicality of our approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Safety envelope for load tolerance of structural element design based on multi-stage testing

Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope using Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Dynamic Approach to Modeling Dependence Between Human Failure Events

In practice, most HRA methods use direct dependence from THERP—the notion that error be- gets error, and one human failure event (HFE) may increase the likelihood of subsequent HFEs. In this paper, we approach dependence from a simulation perspective in which the effects of human errors are dynamically modeled. There are three key concepts that play into this modeling: (1) Errors are driven by performance shaping factors (PSFs). In this context, the error propagation is not a result of the presence of an HFE yielding overall increases in subsequent HFEs. Rather, it is shared PSFs that cause dependence. (2) PSFs have qualities of lag and latency. These two qualities are not currently considered in HRA methods that use PSFs. Yet, to model the effects of PSFs, it is not simply a matter of identifying the discrete effects of a particular PSF on performance. The effects of PSFs must be considered temporally, as the PSFs will have a range of effects across the event sequence. (3) Finally, there is the concept of error spilling. When PSFs are activated, they not only have temporal effects but also lateral effects on other PSFs, leading to emergent errors. This paper presents the framework for tying together these dynamic dependence concepts.

dependence↗
DOE OSTI2015

System Study: High-Pressure Core Spray 1998-2014

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure core spray (HPCS) at eight U.S. commercial boiling water reactors. Demand, run hours, and failure data from fiscal year 1998 through 2014 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period, while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the HPCS results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

U328 Electrical Reliability Project Soil Sampling and Analysis Plan

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's (LLNL’s) Project Management Office (PMO) is planning to install an underground electrical duct bank at the 3200 block of the Livermore Site (project). The proposed project will include a new electrical substation and feeders, demolition and replacement of the U328C utility building with a new structure to the west, re-routing of utilities, and update of the parking lot. This Sampling and Analysis Plan (SAP) outlines the procedures to collect and evaluate environmental samples for disposition of the excavated soil during the project and geotechnical samples for pavement design. This SAP has been prepared and is organized to be consistent with LLNL's Soils Screening and Management Plan (SSMP) (LLNL, 2022), as well as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Data Quality Objectives (DQO) process (EPA, 2006). In addition to the environmental samples, geotechnical samples will be collected by Consolidated Engineering Laboratories (CEL) on behalf of PMO. Geotechnical samples will be collected from a dedicated geotechnical boring location or co-located with environmental samples. Collection and evaluation of the geotechnical samples is determined by CEL and is therefore not discussed in this SAP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Lateral Amorphous Selenium Photodetectors for Low-Photon and VUV Detection at Cryogenic Temperatures

The performance of amorphous selenium (a-Se) as a cryogenic photodetector material is evaluated through a series of experiments using laterally structured devices operated in a custom optical test stand. These studies investigate the response of a-Se detectors to low-photon fluxes at high electric fields near avalanche conditions, the linearity of the photoconductive response over a wide dynamic range and the direct detection of narrowband 130 nm vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) illumination. At 87 K, matched-filter analysis shows reliable single-shot detection with efficiencies greater than or equal to 80 percent and area under the curve (AUC) greater than or equal to 0.85 using as few as approximately 6800 incident 401 nm photons, corresponding to approximately 3400 photons within field-active regions after accounting for geometric constraints. Measurements are performed at cryogenic temperatures using calibrated photon fluxes derived from a silicon photomultiplier reference and a characterized optical filter stack. Additional experiments using a tellurium-doped a-Se (a-SeTe) device explore the material's behavior under identical test conditions and demonstrate that avalanche is achievable in a-SeTe at cryogenic temperatures. The results demonstrate reproducible low-noise operation, VUV sensitivity and field-dependent gain behavior in a lateral a-Se architecture, representing the first reported observation of avalanche multiplication in laterally structured a-Se and a-SeTe devices at cryogenic temperatures. These findings support the potential integration of laterally structured a-Se devices into next-generation pixelated liquid-argon time projection chambers (TPCs) requiring scalable, high-field-compatible photon detection systems.

FOS: Physical sciences↗