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Boosted dark matter and its implications for the features in IceCube HESE data

Here we study the implications of the premise that any new, relativistic, highly energetic neutral particle that interacts with quarks and gluons would create cascade-like events in the IceCube (IC) detector. Such events would be observationally indistinguishable from neutral current deep-inelastic (DIS) scattering events due to neutrinos. Consequently, one reason for deviations, breaks or excesses in the expected astrophysical power-law neutrino spectrum could be the flux of such a particle. Motivated by features in the recent 1347-day IceCube high energy starting event (HESE) data, we focus on particular boosted dark matter (χ) related realizations of this premise. Here, χ is assumed to be much lighter than, and the result of, the slow decay of a massive scalar (φ ) which constitutes a major fraction of the Universe's dark matter (DM) . We show that this hypothesis, coupled with a standard power-law astrophysical neutrino flux is capable of providing very good fits to the present data, along with a possible explanation of other features in the HESE sample. These features include a) the paucity of events beyond ~ 2 PeV b) a spectral feature resembling a dip or a spectral change in the 400 TeV–1 PeV region and c) an excess in the 50-100 TeV region. We consider two different boosted DM scenarios, and determine the allowed mass ranges and couplings for four different types of mediators (scalar, pseudoscalar, vector and axial-vector) which could connect the standard and dark sectors. We consider constraints from gamma-ray observations and collider searches. We find that the gamma-ray observations provide the most restrictive constraints, disfavouring the 1σ allowed parameter space from IC fits, while still being consistent with the 3σ allowed region. We also test our proposal and its implications against the (statistically independent) sample of six year through-going muon track data recently released by IceCube.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

IR-safe and UV-safe integrands in the EFTofLSS with exact time dependence

Because large-scale structure surveys may very well be the next leading sources of cosmological information, it is important to have a precise understanding of the cosmological observables; for this reason, the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) was developed. So far, most results in the EFTofLSS have used the so-called Einstein-de Sitter approximation, an approximation of the time dependence which is known to be accurate to better than one percent. However, in order to reach even higher accuracy, the full time dependence must be used. The computation with exact time dependence is sensitive to both infrared (IR) and ultraviolet (UV) effects in the loop integrands, and while these effects must cancel because of diffeomorphism invariance, they make numerical computation much less efficient. We provide a formulation of the one-loop, equal-time exact-time-dependence power spectrum of density perturbations which is manifestly free of these spurious IR and UV divergences at the level of the integrand. We extend our results to the total matter mode with clustering quintessence, show that IR and UV divergences cancel, and provide the associated IR- and UV-safe integrand. This also establishes that the consistency conditions are satisfied in this system. In conclusion, we then use our one-loop result to do an improved precision comparison of the two-loop dark-matter power spectrum with the Dark Sky N-body simulation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Kinetic simulations of X-B and O-X-B mode conversion and its deterioration at high input power

Spherical tokamak plasmas are typically overdense and thus inaccessible to externally-injected microwaves in the electron cyclotron range. The electrostatic electron Bernstein wave (EBW), however, provides a method to access the plasma core for heating and diagnostic purposes. Understanding the details of the coupling process to electromagnetic waves is thus important both for the interpretation of microwave diagnostic data and for assessing the feasibility of EBW heating and current drive. While the coupling is reasonably well–understood in the linear regime, nonlinear physics arising from high input power has not been previously quantified. To tackle this problem, we have performed one- and two-dimensional fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulations of the two possible coupling mechanisms, namely X-B and O-X-B mode conversion. We find that the ion dynamics has a profound effect on the field structure in the nonlinear regime, as high amplitude short-scale oscillations of the longitudinal electric field are excited in the region below the high-density cut-off prior to the arrival of the EBW. We identify this effect as the instability of the X wave with respect to resonant scattering into an EBW and a lower-hybrid wave. Finally, we calculate the instability rate analytically and find this basic theory to be in reasonable agreement with our simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Increasing the density in Wendelstein 7-X: benefits and limitations

In stellarators, increasing the density is beneficial for the energy confinement. While there is no single reason for this observation, it is still very robust across different devices and this is reflected in the empirical energy confinement time scaling for stellarators, ISS04. In order to study whether this is also true for Wendelstein 7-X, here the density scaling of the energy confinement time is analyzed and compared to ISS04 for the first divertor experiments. When the density is increased beyond a critical density, however, radiative collapses are frequently observed. Existing analytical models for the critical density are revisited to assess whether they can predict the accessible density range. Furthermore, since close to the collapse the radiation losses increase substantially, the impact on the global energy confinement is investigated. It is found that in plasmas with high radiation the density scaling of the energy confinement time becomes weaker, the reason for this observation is not yet clear. In the second half of the first divertor campaign, boronization was applied to W7-X for the first time. This broadened the operational window, allowing for operation at higher density and, hence, higher stored energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium–tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency

The tritium aspects of the DT fuel cycle embody some of the most challenging feasibility and attractiveness issues in the development of fusion systems. The review and analyses in this paper provide important information to understand and quantify these challenges and to define the phase space of plasma physics and fusion technology parameters and features that must guide a serious R&D in the world fusion program. We focus in particular on components, issues and R&D necessary to satisfy three 'principal requirements': (1) achieving tritium self-sufficiency within the fusion system, (2) providing a tritium inventory for the initial start-up of a fusion facility, and (3) managing the safety and biological hazards of tritium. A primary conclusion is that the physics and technology state-of-the-art will not enable DEMO and future power plants to satisfy these principal requirements. We quantify goals and define specific areas and ideas for physics and technology R&D to meet these requirements. A powerful fuel cycle dynamics model was developed to calculate time-dependent tritium inventories and flow rates in all parts and components of the fuel cycle for different ranges of parameters and physics and technology conditions. Dynamics modeling analyses show that the key parameters affecting tritium inventories, tritium start-up inventory, and tritium self-sufficiency are the tritium burn fraction in the plasma (f b ), fueling efficiency (η f ), processing time of plasma exhaust in the inner fuel cycle (t p ), reactor availability factor (AF), reserve time (tr) which determines the reserve tritium inventory needed in the storage system in order to keep the plant operational for time t r in case of any malfunction of any part of the tritium processing system, and the doubling time (t d ). Results show that η f f b > 2% and processing time of 1–4 h are required to achieve tritium self-sufficiency with reasonable confidence. For η f f b = 2% and processing time of 4 h, the tritium start-up inventory required for a 3 GW fusion reactor is ~11 kg, while it is <5 kg if η f f b = 5% and the processing time is 1 h. To achieve these stringent requirements, a serious R&D program in physics and technology is necessary. The EU-DEMO direct internal recycling concept that carries fuel directly from the plasma exhaust gas to the fueling systems without going through the isotope separation system reduces the overall processing time and tritium inventories and has positive effects on the required tritium breeding ratio (TBR R ). A significant finding is the strong dependence of tritium self-sufficiency on the reactor availability factor. Simulations show that tritium self-sufficiency is: impossible if AF < 10% for any η f f b , possible if AF > 30% and 1% ≤ η f f b ≤ 2%, and achievable with reasonable confidence if AF > 50% and η f f b > 2%. These results are of particular concern in light of the low availability factor predicted for the near-term plasma-based experimental facilities (e.g. FNSF, VNS, CTF), and can have repercussions on tritium economy in DEMO reactors as well, unless significant advancements in RAMI are made. There is a linear dependency between the tritium start-up inventory and the fusion power. The required tritium start-up inventory for a fusion facility of 100 MW fusion power is as small as 1 kg. Since fusion power plants will have large powers for better economics, it is important to maintain a 'reserve' tritium inventory in the tritium storage system to continue to fuel the plasma and avoid plant shutdown in case of malfunctions of some parts of the tritium processing lines. But our results show that a reserve time as short as 24 h leads to unacceptable reserve and start-up inventory requirements. Therefore, high reliability and fast maintainability of all components in the fuel cycle are necessary in order to avoid the need for storing reserve tritium inventory sufficient for continued fusion facility operation for more than a few hours. The physics aspects of plasma fueling, tritium burn fraction, and particle and power exhaust are highly interrelated and complex, and predictions for DEMO and power reactors are highly uncertain because of lack of experiments with burning plasma. Fueling by pellet injection on the high field side of tokamak has evolved to be the preferred method to fuel a burning plasma. Extrapolation from the DIII-D penetration scaling shows fueling efficiency expected in DEMO to be <25%, but such extrapolations are highly uncertain. The fueling efficiency of gas in a reactor relevant regime is expected to be extremely poor and not very useful for getting tritium into the core plasma efficiently. Gas fueling will nonetheless be useful for feedback control of the divertor operating parameters. Extensive modeling has been carried out to predict burn fraction, fueling requirements, and fueling efficiency for ITER, DEMO, and beyond. The fueling rate required to operate Q = 10 ITER plasmas in order to provide the required core fueling, helium exhaust and radiative divertor plasma conditions for acceptable divertor power loads was calculated. If this fueling is performed with a 50–50 DT mix, the tritium burn fraction in ITER would be ~0.36%, which is too low to satisfy the self-sufficiency conditions derived from the dynamics modeling for fusion reactors. Extrapolation to DEMO using this approach would also yield similarly low burn fraction. Extensive analysis presented shows that specific features of edge neutral dynamics in ITER and fusion reactors, which are different from present experiments, open possibilities for optimization of tritium fueling and thus to improve the burn fraction. Using only tritium in pellet fueling of the plasma core, and only deuterium for edge density, divertor power load and ELM control results in significant increase of the burn fraction to 1.8–3.6%. These estimates are performed with physics models whose results cannot be fully validated for ITER and DEMO plasma conditions since these cannot be achieved in present tokamak experiments. Thus, several uncertainties remain regarding particle transport and scenario requirements in ITER and DEMO. The safety standard requirements for protection of the public and release guidelines for tritium have been reviewed. General safety approaches including minimizing tritium inventories, reducing tritium permeation through materials, and decontaminating material for waste disposal have been suggested.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Validation of edge turbulence codes against the TCV-X21 diverted L-mode reference case

Self-consistent full-size turbulent-transport simulations of the divertor and scrape-off-layer (SOL) of existing tokamaks have recently become feasible. This enables the direct comparison of turbulence simulations against experimental measurements. In this work, we perform a series of diverted ohmic L-mode discharges on the tokamak à configuration variable (TCV) tokamak, building a first-of-a-kind dataset for the validation of edge turbulence models. This dataset, referred to as TCV-X21, contains measurements from five diagnostic systems from the outboard midplane (OMP) to the divertor targets—giving a total of 45 one- and two-dimensional comparison observables in two toroidal magnetic field directions. The experimental dataset is used to validate three flux-driven 3D fluid-turbulence models—GBS, GRILLIX and TOKAM3X. With each model, we perform simulations of the TCV-X21 scenario, individually tuning the particle and power source rates to achieve a reasonable match of the upstream separatrix value of density and electron temperature. We find that the simulations match the experimental profiles for most observables at the OMP—both in terms of profile shape and absolute magnitude—while a comparatively poorer agreement is found towards the divertor targets. The match between simulation and experiment is seen to be sensitive to the value of the resistivity, the heat conductivities, the power injection rate and the choice of sheath boundary conditions. Additionally, despite targeting a sheath-limited regime, the discrepancy between simulations and experiment also suggests that the neutral dynamics should be included. The results of this validation show that turbulence models are able to perform simulations of existing devices and achieve reasonable agreement with experimental measurements. Where disagreement is found, the validation helps to identify how the models can be improved. By publicly releasing the experimental dataset and validation analysis, this work should help to guide and accelerate the development of predictive turbulence simulations of the edge and SOL.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Increased radiation due to non-coronal effects on DIII-D and MAST-U with varying input power

Through SOLPS-ITER simulations of DIII-D and MAST-U, an X-divertor (XD) on DIII-D and a super X-divertor (SXD) on MAST-U were shown to have increased carbon emissivity (P Rad /n e n I ) over corresponding standard divertors (SD) at similar degrees of partial detachment. The reasons behind the increased emissivity in the DIII-D XD and SXD are analyzed using a simple 0D transport model. From the transport model, it is seen that a major cause of the increased emissivity in the XD and SXD over the SDs is a shorter impurity confinement time. An additional cause (for the SXD) is an increase in the ratio of neutral hydrogen to electron density. The input power (P in ) was varied and the XD had a higher emissivity at the higher P in , unlike the SDs which had the emissivity decrease with increasing P in . A basic geometrical reason is given to explain both the benefits of the XD over the SD as well as the increase in the XD's emissivity with P in .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Helium plasma operations on ASDEX Upgrade and JET in support of the non-nuclear phases of ITER

For its initial operational phase, ITER has until recently considered using non-nuclear hydrogen (H) or helium (He) plasmas to keep nuclear activation at low levels. To this end, the Tokamak Exploitation Task Force of the EUROfusion Consortium carried out dedicated experimental campaigns in He on the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) and JET tokamaks in 2022, with particular emphasis put on the ELMy H-mode operation and plasma-wall interaction processes as well as comparison to H or deuterium (D) plasmas. Both in pure He and mixed He + H plasmas, H-mode operation could be reached but more effort was needed to obtain a stable plasma scenario than in H or D. Even if the power threshold for the LH transition was lower in He, entering the type-I ELMy regime appeared to require equally much or even more heating power than in H. Suppression of ELMs by resonant magnetic perturbations was studied on AUG but was only possible in plasmas with a He content below 19%; the reason for this unexpected behaviour remains still unclear and various theoretical approaches are being pursued to properly understand the physics behind ELM suppression. The erosion rates of tungsten (W) plasma-facing components were an order of magnitude larger than what has been reported in hydrogenic plasmas, which can be attributed to the prominent role of He 2+ ions in the plasma. For the first time, the formation of nanoscale structures (W fuzz) was unambiguously demonstrated in H-mode He plasmas on AUG. However, no direct evidence of fuzz creation on JET was obtained despite the main conditions for its occurrence being met. The reason could be a delicate balance between W erosion by ELMs, competition between the growth and annealing of the fuzz, and coverage of the surface with co-deposits.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The science case for an intermediate energy advanced and novel accelerator linear collider facility

It is widely accepted that the next lepton collider beyond a Higgs factory would require center-of-mass energy of the order of up to 15 TeV. Since, given reasonable space and cost restrictions, conventional accelerator technology reaches its limits near this energy, high-gradient advanced acceleration concepts are attractive. Advanced and novel accelerators (ANAs) are leading candidates due to their ability to produce acceleration gradients on the order of 1–100 GV/m, leading to compact acceleration facilities. However, intermediate energy facilities (IEF) are required to test the critical technology elements on the way towards multi-TeV-class colliders. Here a science case for a 20–100 GeV center-of-mass energy ANA-based lepton collider that can be a candidate for an intermediate energy facility is presented. The IEF can provide numerous opportunities for high energy physics studies including precision Quantum Chromodynamics and Beyond the Standard Model physics measurements, investigation of charged particle interactions with extreme electromagnetic fields, and exploring muon and proton beam acceleration. Possible applications of this collider include the studies of γγ and electron beam-fixed target/beamdump collider designs. Thus, the goal of the proposed IEF is to both carry out particle physics measurements in the 20-100 GeV ranges as well as to serve as an ANA demonstrator facility.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

ANGULAR MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN VELA-LIKE PULSAR GLITCHES

The angular momentum transfer associated with Vela-like glitches has never been calculated directly within a realistic scenario for the storage and release of superfluid vorticity; therefore, the explanation of giant glitches in terms of vortices has not yet been tested against observations. We present the first physically reasonable model, both at the microscopic and macroscopic level (spherical geometry, n = 1 polytropic density profile, density-dependent pinning forces compatible with vortex rigidity), to determine where in the star the vorticity is pinned, how much of it is pinned, and for how long. For standard neutron star parameters (M = 1.4 M{sub Sun }, R{sub s} = 10 km, {Omega}-dot = {Omega}-dot{sub Vela} = -10{sup -10} Hz s{sup -1}), we find that maximum pinning forces of order f{sub m} Almost-Equal-To 10{sup 15} dyn cm{sup -1} can accumulate {Delta}L{sub gl} Almost-Equal-To 10{sup 40} erg s of superfluid angular momentum, and release it to the crust at intervals {Delta}t{sub gl} Almost-Equal-To 3 years. This estimate of {Delta}L{sub gl} is one order of magnitude smaller than that implied indirectly by current models for post-glitch recovery, where the core and inner-crust vortices are taken as physically disconnected; yet, it successfully yields the magnitudes observed in recent Vela glitches for both jump parameters, {Delta}{Omega}{sub gl} and {Delta}{Omega}-dot{sub gl}, provided one assumes that only a small fraction (<10%) of the total star vorticity is coupled to the crust on the short timescale of a glitch. This is reasonable in our approach, where no layer of normal matter exists between the core and the inner-crust, as indicated by existing microscopic calculation. The new scenario presented here is nonetheless compatible with current post-glitch models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE HELIOTAIL

The heliotail is formed when the solar wind (SW) interacts with the local interstellar medium (LISM) and is shaped by the interstellar magnetic field (ISMF). While there are no spacecraft available to perform in situ measurements of the SW plasma and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in the heliotail, it is of importance for the interpretation of measurements of energetic neutral atom fluxes performed by Interstellar Boundary Explorer. It has been shown recently that the orientation of the heliotail in space and distortions of the unperturbed LISM caused by its presence may explain the anisotropy in the TeV cosmic ray flux detected in air shower observations. The SW flow in the heliotail is a mystery itself because it is strongly affected by charge exchange between the SW ions and interstellar neutral atoms. If the angle between the Sun’s magnetic and rotation axes is constant, the SW in the tail tends to be concentrated inside the HMF spirals deflected tailward. However, the twisted field soon becomes unstable and the reason for the SW collimation within a two-lobe structure vanishes. We demonstrate that kinetic treatment of the H atom transport becomes essential in this case for explaining the lobe absence further along the tail. We show that the heliotail flow is strongly affected by the solar cycle that eliminates artifacts, which is typical of solutions based on simplifying assumptions. The heliopause in the tail is subject to Kelvin–Helmholtz instability, while its orientation and shape are determined by the ISMF direction and strength.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

32 examples of LLM applications in materials science and chemistry: towards automation, assistants, agents, and accelerated scientific discovery

Abstract Large language models (LLMs) are reshaping many aspects of materials science and chemistry research, enabling advances in molecular property prediction, materials design, scientific automation, knowledge extraction, and more. Recent developments demonstrate that the latest class of models are able to integrate structured and unstructured data, assist in hypothesis generation, and streamline research workflows. To explore the frontier of LLM capabilities across the research lifecycle, we review applications of LLMs through 32 total projects developed during the second annual LLM hackathon for applications in materials science and chemistry, a global hybrid event. These projects spanned seven key research areas: (1) molecular and material property prediction, (2) molecular and material design, (3) automation and novel interfaces, (4) scientific communication and education, (5) research data management and automation, (6) hypothesis generation and evaluation, and (7) knowledge extraction and reasoning from the scientific literature. Collectively, these applications illustrate how LLMs serve as versatile predictive models, platforms for rapid prototyping of domain-specific tools, and much more. In particular, improvements in both open source and proprietary LLM performance through the addition of reasoning, additional training data, and new techniques have expanded effectiveness, particularly in low-data environments and interdisciplinary research. As LLMs continue to improve, their integration into scientific workflows presents both new opportunities and new challenges, requiring ongoing exploration, continued refinement, and further research to address reliability, interpretability, and reproducibility.

Computer Science↗

Early Career Paths at Los Alamos National Laboratory

We represent a selection of early career staff at LANL with backgrounds in mathematics. There are many possible paths to a position at LANL. The lab has very active graduate research and postdoctoral programs, and it is not uncommon for graduate students to become postdocs, who can then be “converted” to staff. Conversion from being a postdoc is not the only route to a position at LANL, nor is it a guarantee, but most of us did postdocs here before becoming staff. Being a postdoc here also gives you an idea of whether you’d like living in northern New Mexico, a rugged, beautiful, and somewhat remote area. It is important to say here that citizenship is not a requirement for many of the positions at the lab. The lab historically and currently welcomes investigators from all over the world. LANL offers a broad spectrum of mathematical challenges that are largely problem driven. Particularly to those who feel that academic mathematics can be stove-piped, with a focus on deep but not necessarily broad expertise, the LANL environment gives the flexibility to move and grow in many different directions. The lab encourages a team-based approach to problems, which not only enhances the breadth of our approach to solving problems, but also gives team members access to new fields. From the outside (academia), however, it can be difficult to see how fields map between academia and the lab. This is one of the reasons that having interaction with the lab as a graduate student or postdoc can be helpful in understanding if the environment would be a good match for you. An important advantage of working at the lab is our high visibility both in academia, as well as in industry and the government. Because of its mission-driven projects, LANL, and more broadly the Department of Energy Laboratories, help set research directions that are picked up by researchers in academia. For this reason, many lab staff have worked at LANL for a number of years, then have transferred into academia after having set the agenda for their field of expertise. Below, we will share some of our experiences, opinions, and reflections in order to give the reader a feel for our own early career experiences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using angular two-point correlations to self-calibrate the photometric redshift distributions of DECaLS DR9

Calibrating the redshift distributions of photometric galaxy samples is essential in weak lensing studies. The self-calibration method combines angular auto- and cross-correlations between galaxies in multiple photometric redshift (photo-z) bins to reconstruct the scattering rates matrix between redshift bins. In this paper, we test a recently proposed self-calibration algorithm using the DECaLS Data Release 9 and investigate to what extent the scattering rates are determined. We first mitigate the spurious angular correlations due to imaging systematics by a machine learning based method. We then improve the algorithm for χ 2 minimization and error estimation. Finally, we solve for the scattering matrices, carry out a series of consistency tests, and find reasonable agreements: (1) finer photo-z bins return a high-resolution scattering matrix, and it is broadly consistent with the low-resolution matrix from wider bins; (2) the scattering matrix from the Northern Galactic Cap is almost identical to that from Southern Galactic Cap; (3) the scattering matrices are in reasonable agreement with those constructed from the power spectrum and the weighted spectroscopic subsample. We also evaluate the impact of cosmic magnification. Although it changes little the diagonal elements of the scattering matrix, it affects the off-diagonals significantly. The scattering matrix also shows some dependence on scale cut of input correlations, which may be related to a known numerical degeneracy between certain scattering pairs. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the feasibility of the self-calibration method in real data and provides a practical alternative to calibrate the redshift distributions of photometric samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Miscentring of optical galaxy clusters based on Sunyaev–Zeldovich counterparts

ABSTRACT The ‘miscentring effect’, i.e. the offset between a galaxy cluster’s optically defined centre and the centre of its gravitational potential, is a significant systematic effect on brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) studies and cluster lensing analyses. We perform a cross-match between the optical cluster catalogue from the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Survey S19A Data Release and the Sunyaev–Zeldovich cluster catalogue from Data Release 5 of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). We obtain a sample of 186 clusters in common in the redshift range $0.1 \le z \le 1.4$ over an area of 469 deg$^2$. By modelling the distribution of centring offsets in this fiducial sample, we find a miscentred fraction (corresponding to clusters offset by more than 330 kpc) of ∼25 per cent, a value consistent with previous miscentring studies. We examine the image of each miscentred cluster in our sample and identify one of several reasons to explain the miscentring. Some clusters show significant miscentring for astrophysical reasons, i.e. ongoing cluster mergers. Others are miscentred due to non-astrophysical, systematic effects in the HSC data or the cluster-finding algorithm. After removing all clusters with clear, non-astrophysical causes of miscentring from the sample, we find a considerably smaller miscentred fraction, $\sim 10~\,\rm per\,cent$. We show that the gravitational lensing signal within 1 Mpc of miscentred clusters is considerably smaller than that of well-centred clusters, and we suggest that the ACT SZ centres are a better estimate of the true cluster potential centroid.

Ding, Jupiter (ORCID:0000000296119799)↗

Constraints on dark energy dynamics and spatial curvature from Hubble parameter and baryon acoustic oscillation data

We use all available baryon acoustic oscillation distance measurements and Hubble parameter data to constrain the cosmological constant Λ, dynamical dark energy, and spatial curvature in simple cosmological models. Here, we find that the consensus spatially flat ΛCDM (Λ cold dark matter) model provides a reasonable fit to the data, but depending on the Hubble constant prior and cosmological model, it can be a little more than 1σ away from the best-fitting model, which can favour mild dark energy dynamics or non-flat spatial hypersurfaces.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probabilistic inference in very large universes

Our current favored cosmological theories allow for the striking and controversial possibility that the observable universe is just a small part of a much larger universe in which parameters that describe the effective, low-energy laws of physics vary from one region to another. The controversy is largely driven by the fact that such a “very large universe” is mostly observationally inaccessible to us, so the issue arises of how we can reasonably assess a theory that describes such a universe. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method for theory assessment based on theory-generated probability distributions for our observations. We focus on the principles that define this method, leaving aside concerns about how, in practice, one would carry out the required calculations. (One important issue that we set aside is the measure problem.) We argue that cosmological theories can be tested by the standard method of Bayesian updating, but we need to use theoretical predictions for “first-person” probabilities—that is, probabilities that we should use for our observations, taking into account all relevant selection effects. These selection effects can vary from one observer to another and can vary with time, so, in principle, first-person probabilities are defined for each observer instant—an observer at a specific instant of time. Calculations of first-person probabilities should take into account everything that the observer believes about herself and her surroundings, which we refer to as her subjective state. If the universe is very large, a theory might predict that there are many observer instants in the same subjective state; we argue that first-person probabilities should be calculated using a principle of self-locating indifference (PSLI), the assumption that any real observer should make predictions for her future as if she were chosen randomly and uniformly from the theoretically predicted observer instants that share her subjective state. We believe the PSLI is intuitively very reasonable, but we also argue that, if the theory is correct, the use of this principle maximizes the expected fraction of observers who will make correct predictions. A further complication is that cosmological theories are not expected to fully predict the detailed properties of the universe, but rather will predict a set of possible universes, each with a probability. Different possible universes will generically have different numbers of observers. We argue that, in the calculation of first-person probabilities, the probability for each possible universe should be weighted by the number of observer instants in the specified subjective state that it contains. These issues have been controversial in the literature, so we also provide a rebuttal to the claim that principles like the PSLI involve a “selection fallacy”; a rebuttal to what we dub the principle of required certainty; an argument rejecting theories that predict a preponderance of Boltzmann brains; a rebuttal to a parable about humans and Jovians used by Hartle and Srednicki to argue that assumptions of typicality can lead to absurd consequences; and, finally, a discussion about how the use of “old evidence” can be fit into a Bayesian mold.

Azhar, Feraz [University of Notre Dame, IN (United↗

Primordial black hole dark matter: A quantitative parameter sensitivity comparison across formation mechanisms and particle candidates

Primordial black holes (PBHs) in the asteroid-mass window ( 10 17 – 10 22 g ) can account for all of the dark matter without violating any observational constraint, yet are routinely dismissed as fine-tuned. I put that dismissal to the test by applying three complementary sensitivity measures uniformly across a broad landscape: three noninflationary PBH production mechanisms, six classes of inflationary PBH models, and seven particle dark matter benchmarks, all evaluated against the same observable target. Three distinct naturalness universality classes emerge, determined entirely by the analytic structure of the abundance map rather than by the nature of the dark matter candidate. Biased-domain-wall PBHs, in their least model-dependent (free- V b ) form, have the same low sensitivity, Δ = 4.5 , as off-resonance weakly interacting massive particles and freeze-in particles ( Δ = 2 ), a sensitivity that, because it is constant over the entire parameter space of the construction, also coincides trivially with its own Wilson-normalized average within that parameter space (Section Definition and conventions), an equivalence that concerns only the space over which Δ is computed and is not a naturalness statement about the construction as a whole; a further reduction to Δ = 2 is possible only under the additional, independently motivated but not required, assumption that the domain-wall bias is generated by Planck-suppressed operators; early matter-domination PBHs occupy an intermediate tier alongside coannihilating weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), unified by a structural identity in which the sensitivity measure equals the logarithm of the ratio of the formation scale to the matter–radiation equality scale; first-order phase transition PBHs, once the more accurate super-exponential collapse probability is used in place of the single-exponential approximation, instead belong to the same highly sensitive tier as resonant WIMP annihilation and single-field inflationary collapse, for a structurally distinct reason; single-field ultraslow-roll inflationary collapse is severely tuned for a distinct reason: a double exponential in which the power spectrum amplitude is itself exponentially sensitive to the inflaton potential coefficients, on top of the exponential collapse sensitivity of the abundance map. My main conclusion is that the claim that PBH dark matter is generically fine-tuned conflates the worst case with a landscape spanning every naturalness tier. The Barbieri-Giudice sensitivity computed here and the Wilson-normalized measure of Iovino and Riotto answer distinct and mutually consistent questions about the same construction, a distinction I clarify within the two-layer decomposition.

Profumo, Stefano [University of California, Santa ↗