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DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Effects of Precipitation and Evapotranspiration on Soil Moisture Variability Within CMIP5 Using SMAP and ERA5 Data

=The effects of precipitation (Pr) and evapotranspiration (ET) on surface soil moisture (SSM) play an essential role in the land-atmosphere system. Here we evaluate multimodel differences of these effects within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) compared to Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) products and ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) as references in a frequency domain. The variability of SSM, Pr, and ET within three frequency bands (1/7 ~ 1/30 days -1 , 1/30 ~ 1/90 days -1 , and 1/90 ~ 1/365 days -1 ) after normalization is quantified using Fourier transform. We analyze the impact of ET and Pr on SSM variability based on a transfer function assuming that these variables form a linear time-invariant (LTI) system. For the total effects of ET and Pr on SSM variability, the CMIP5 estimations are smaller than the reference data in the two higher frequency bands and are larger than the reference data in the lowest frequency band. Besides, the effects on SSM by Pr and ET are found to be different across the three frequency bands. In each frequency band, the variability of the factor that dominates SSM (i.e., Pr or ET) from CMIP5 is smaller than that from the references. This study identifies the spatiotemporal distribution of differences between CMIP5 models and references (SMAP and ERA5) in simulating ET and Pr effects on SSM within three frequency bands. This study provides insightful information on how soil moisture variability is affected by varying precipitation and evapotranspiration at different time scales within Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Meteorological and hydrological parameters for 17 locations of meteorological stations of the East River Watershed

The Data Package includes a set of csv files of input meteorological parameters for locations of 17 meteorological stations within the East River watershed. These meteorological datasets were downloaded from the (1) PRISM database--monthly precipitation, air temperature (minimum, mean, and maximum), vapor pressure deficit (minimum and maximum), and dewpoint temperature, and (2) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis database – wind database. The datasets were used for calculations of the Potential Evapotranspiration (ETo), Actual Evapotranspiration (ET), Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) , Standard Evapotranspiration-Precipitation Index (SPEI) for the period from 1966 to 2021. The main research questions addressed are: the evaluation of the long-term temporal trends of climatic parameters, hierarchical clustering, and areal mapping/zonation of the East River watershed. Calculations were conducted in the Rstudio environment. The dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.The input datasets were downloaded from (a) PRISM database (the Northwest Alliance for Computational Science and Engineering at the Oregon State University), and (b) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis database.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Ability of Instantaneous Aircraft and Sonde Measurements to Characterize Climatological Means and Long-Term Trends in Tropospheric Composition

Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.

Atmospheric composition↗

NASA NTRS2023

Diagnosis of Antarctic Blowing Snow Properties Using MERRA-2 Reanalysis with a Machine Learning Model

This paper presents the work on using a machine learning model to diagnose Antarctic blowing snow (BLSN) properties with the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2) data. We adopt the random forest classifier for BLSN identification and the random forest regressor for BLSN optical depth and height diagnosis. BLSN properties observed from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) are used as the truth for training the model. Using MERRA-2 fields such as snow age, surface elevation and pressure, temperature, specific humidity, and temperature gradient at the 2m level, and wind speed at the 10m level as input, reasonable results are achieved. Hourly blowing snow property diagnostics are generated with the trained model. Using the year 2010 as an example, it is shown that the Antarctic BLSN frequency is much higher over East than West Antarctica. High frequency months are from April to September, during which BLSN frequency exceeds 20% over East Antarctica. For May 2010, the BLSN snow frequency in the region is as high as 37%. Due to the suppression by strong surface-based inversions, larger values of BLSN height and optical depth are usually limited to the coastal regions, wherein the strength of surface-based inversions is weaker.

Antarctic↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A 30-yr high-resolution weather research and forecasting model downscaling data over California and Nevada

This dataset presents a 30-year high resolution meteorological dataset obtained using the WRF model (Advanced version Research WRF version 4.4). We used WRF and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 as initial and boundary conditions to generate gridded meteorological variables. A large number of surface weather stations was used for model validation. A multi-physics analysis was first developed to identify a good physics suite extended from 6 November 00 UTC to 10 November 23 UTC, 2018, which included the Camp Fire in northern California. Based on the best physics suite, the downscaling dataset extends from 1 December to 28 February, 1990–2021 and the horizontal domain has 1.5 km grid spacing covering the entire states of California and Nevada in the United States. Comparisons between hourly surface observations and WRF simulations of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds show mean absolute errors on the order of (1.6-2.0 C), (10 %) and 1.2–1.5 m s -1 , respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using High Frequency Passive Microwave, A-train, and TRMM Data to Evaluate Hydrometer Structure in the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

Validating water vapor and prognostic condensate in global models remains a challenging research task. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of tunable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ observations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties. Progress on improving cloud / hydrometeor fields in models stands to benefit greatly from the growing inventory ofA-Train data sets. ill the present study we are using a variety of complementary satellite retrievals of hydrometeors to examine condensate produced by the emerging NASA Modem Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and its associated atmospheric general circulation model GEOS5. Cloud and precipitation are generated by both grid-scale prognostic equations and by the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) diagnostic convective parameterization. The high frequency channels (89 to 183.3 GHz) from AMSU-B and MRS on NOAA polar orbiting satellites are being used to evaluate the climatology and variability of precipitating ice from tropical convective anvils. Vertical hydrometeor structure from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CloudSat radars are used to develop statistics on vertical hydrometeor structure in order to better interpret the extensive high frequency passive microwave climatology. Cloud liquid and ice water path data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS, are used to investigate relationships between upper level cloudiness and tropical deep convective anvils. Together these data are used to evaluate cloud / ice water path, gross aspects of vertical hydrometeor structure, and the relationship between cloud extent and surface precipitation that the MERRA reanalysis must capture.

Robertson, Franklin↗

NASA NTRS2017

Stratospheric Instrusion Catalog: A 10-Year Compilation of Events Identified by using TRACK with NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Stratospheric intrusions "the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere" have been linked with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime. However, the impact of stratospheric intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. A new approach to the study of stratospheric intrusions uses NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) model and assimilation products with an objective feature tracking algorithm to investigate the atmospheric dynamics that generate stratospheric intrusions and the different mechanisms through which stratospheric intrusions may influence tropospheric chemistry and surface air quality seasonally over both the western and the eastern USA. A catalog of stratospheric intrusions identified in the MERRA-2 reanalysis was produced for the period 2004-2015 and validated against surface ozone observations (focusing on those which exceed the national air quality standard) and a recent data set of stratospheric intrusion-influenced air quality exceedance flags from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Considering not all ozone exceedances have been flagged by the EPA, a collection of stratospheric intrusions can support air quality agencies for more rapid identification of the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone and demonstrates that future operational analyses may aid in forecasting such events. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of stratospheric intrusions over the continental US was performed, and while the spring over the western USA does exhibit the largest number of stratospheric intrusions affecting the lower troposphere, the number of intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the eastern USA is sizable. By focusing on the major modes of variability that influence weather in the USA, such as the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection index, predicative meteorological patterns associated with stratospheric intrusions and their regional effects on tropospheric ozone were identified. Improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of such events.

PN↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture for Improved Atmospheric Reanalyses

A newly developed, weakly coupled land and atmosphere data assimilation system for NASA’s Global Earth Observing System model is presented, and used to demonstrate the benefit of assimilating satellite soil moisture into an atmospheric reanalysis. Specifically, Advanced Scatterometer and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into a system that uses the same model, atmospheric assimilation system, and atmospheric observations as the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The atmosphere is sensitive to soil moisture only under certain conditions. Hence, while the globally averaged model improvements were small, regionally, the soil moisture assimilation induced some substantial improvements. For example, in a large region spanning from western Europe across southern Russia, the soil moisture assimilation decreased the RMSE against independent station observations of daily maximum 2-m temperature (T(sup 2m, sub max)) by up to 0.4 K, and of 2-m specific humidity (q(exp 2m)) by up to 0.5 g/kg. Over all available stations, the mean T(sup 2m, sub max) RMSE was reduced from 2.82 to 2.79 K, while the mean q(exp 2m) RMSE was reduced from 1.25 to 1.20 g/kg. The soil moisture assimilation also reduced the mean RMSE across 29 flux tower sites from 34.2 to 32.6 Wm(exp −2) for latent heating, and from 37.7 to 36.5 Wm(exp −2) for sensible heating. For all variables evaluated, the soil moisture assimilation improved the model at monthly to seasonal, rather than daily, time scales. Based on the above experiments, it is recommended that satellite soil moisture be assimilated into future reanalyses, including the follow-on to MERRA-2.

Clara Draper↗

NASA NTRS2026

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner↗

DOE OSTI2025

Forty-year hydropower generation reanalysis for Conterminous United States

First published in 2022, the RectifHyd dataset provides hydrologically consistent estimates of monthly net generation for approximately 1,500 hydropower plants in the United States, addressing a gap in industrial surveys that have collected monthly generation data from only ~10% of plants post-2003. Here we present RectifHydPlus—an extended and enhanced dataset that improves on both the proxy information and temporal downscaling methodology adopted in RectifHyd. In addition to providing updated estimates of historical monthly generation for 590 plants with >10 MW nameplate capacity from 1980 through 2019, RectifHydPlus adds a hydrological control dataset that isolates the influence of historical water availability on generation. The new hydrological control dataset is suited to applications seeking to represent the capabilities of the contemporary fleet subject to historical interannual variability in climate. RectifHydPlus also includes a forty-year, daily-resolution, spill-adjusted water release time series for each dam, allowing users to aggregate generation estimates to the desired temporal resolution.

Hydroelectricity↗

NASA NTRS1999

I/O Parallelization for the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has developed the GEOS DAS, a data assimilation system that provides production support for NASA missions and will support NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) in the coming years. The DAO's support of the EOS project along with the requirement of producing long-term reanalysis datasets with an unvarying system levy a large I/O burden on the future system. The DAO has been involved in prototyping parallel implementations of the GEOS DAS for a number of years and is now converting the production version from shared-memory parallelism to distributed-memory parallelism using the portable Message-Passing Interface (MPI). If the MPI-based GEOS DAS is to meet these production requirements, we must make I/O from the parallel system efficient. We have designed a scheme that allows efficient I/O processing while retaining portability, reducing the need for post-processing, and producing data formats that are required by our users, both internal and external. The first phase of the GEOS DAS Parallel I/O System (GPIOS) will expand upon the common method of gathering global data to a Single PE for output. Instead of using a PE also tasked with primary computation, a number of PEs will be dedicated to I/O and its related tasks. This allows the data transformations and formatting required prior to output to take place asynchronously with respect to the GEOS DAS assimilation cycle, improving performance and generating output data sets in a format convenient for our users. I/O PEs can be added as needed to handle larger data volumes or to meet user file specifications. We will show I/O performance results from a prototype MPI GCM integrated with GPIOS. Phase two of GPIOS development will examine ways of integrating new software technologies to further improve performance and build scalability into the system. The maturing of MPI-IO implementations and other supporting libraries such as parallel HDF should provide performance gains while retaining portability.

Lucchesi, R.↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Synopsis of AIRS Global-Mean Clear-Sky Radiance Trends From 2003 to 2020

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aqua satellite has been operating since September 2002. Its information content, superb instrument performance, and dense sampling pattern make the AIRS radiances an invaluable data set for climate studies. The trends of global-mean, nadir-view, clear-sky AIRS radiances from 2003 to 2020 are studied here, together with the counterparts of synthetic radiances based on two reanalyzes, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis V5 (ECMWF ERA5) and NASA Goddard Earth Observing System V5.4.1 (GEOS-5.4.1; a reanalysis product without assimilation of hyperspectral radiances such as AIRS). The AIRS observation shows statistically significant negative trends in most of its CO2 channels, positive but non-significant trends in the channels over the window regions, and statistically significant positive trends in some of its H2O channels. The best agreements between observed and simulated radiance trends are seen over the CO2 tropospheric channels, while the observed and simulated trends over the CO2 stratospheric channels are opposite. ERA5 results largely agree with the AIRS observation over the H2O channels. The comparison in the H2O channels helps reveal a data continuity issue in the GEOS-5.4.1. Contributions from individual variables to the radiance trends are also assessed by performing separate simulations. This study provides the first synopsis of the global-mean trend of AIRS radiances over all its thermal-IR channels.

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2013

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Berndt, Emily B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stratospheric Circulation Changes Associated with the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption

The 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected an unprecedented amount of water directly into the stratosphere. This study attempts to quantify this impact on the temperature, as well as the subsequent changes to the stratospheric circulation, during the months following the eruption based on reanalysis fields. The extreme nature of the temperature, wind, and circulation changes are tracked through comparisons of the months of 2022 with the past 42 years. Examination of the data assimilation process shows that at 20 hPa the data is forcing temperature cooling at record rates resulting in record cold temperatures. Details of the stratospheric perturbations in latitude and pressure are presented for June 2022 where record strong cooling is found at 20 hPa from 60oS to 30oS. In response to the cooling the atmosphere adjusts by creating record strong winds above the temperature anomaly and large changes to the downward and poleward mean meridional circulation.

Lawrence Coy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clifford Neural Operators on Atmospheric Data Influenced Partial Differential Equations

Mathematical representations of the atmosphere are key to forecasting and research tasks across Earth science. Numerically solving the underlying partial differential equations(PDEs) of the atmosphere, however, can be difficult and computationally expensive with numerous trade-offs between computing efficiency and accuracy. Utilizing neural net-works to learn approximations of the PDE solutions from the data can help us model complex phenomena more efficiently than traditional numerical schemes. Here, we have applied Clifford algebra-based neural operators for predicting atmospheric variables. Clifford Fourier neural operators are used with two different backbone architectures, ResNet and UNet, on custom data of U10, V10 and surface pressure as well as U500, V500 and Z500. Clifford Fourier neural operators, coupled with ResNet and UNet architectures, are applied to a key reanalysis dataset. Model performance is initially strong, but we observe increasing errors, resulting in the model becoming highly unstable.

Sujit Roy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reanalysis of Fly's Eye GLM Simulator (FEGS) Optical Pulse Detections from the 2017 GOES-R Post Launch Test (GOES-R PLT) Field Campaign

In 2017, the GOES-R PLT field campaign was conducted to validate new instruments on board GOES-16, including the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). A NASA ER-2 high altitude aircraft was equipped with a sensor suite including FEGS and an electric field change meter (EFCM) for complementary observations of lightning. As part of a modern reanalysis, we plan to combine aircraft and ground observations from the lightning instrumentation and polarimetric Doppler radars for a more complete characterization of optical lightning measurements in the context of convective properties. This presentation focuses on our initial efforts which include a reanalysis of the FEGS multi-spectral optical waveforms using an updated pulse detection algorithm and a comparison of detected pulses with coincident EFCM and Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data. We will present on characteristics of discharge processes including leaders, strokes, and continuing current signatures as observed by the suite of aircraft and ground-based lightning instrumentation.

T Daniel Walker↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Reanalysis and Satellite Cloud Information to Estimate Surface Downward Long-Wave Radiation

The estimation of downward long-wave radiation (DLR) at the surface is very important for the understanding of the Earth’s radiative budget with implications in surface–atmosphere exchanges, climate variability, and global warming. Theoretical radiative transfer and observationally based studies identify the crucial role of clouds in modulating the temporal and spatial variability of DLR. In this study, a new machine learning algorithm that uses multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and the combination of near-surface meteorological data with satellite cloud information is proposed. The new algorithm is compared with the current operational formulation used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF). Both algorithms use near-surface temperature and dewpoint temperature along with total column water vapor from the latest European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5 and satellite cloud information from the Meteosat Second Generation. The algorithms are trained and validated using both ECMWF-ERA5 and DLR acquired from 23 ground stations as part of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. Results show that the MARS algorithm generally improves DLR estimation in comparison with other model estimates, particularly when trained with observations. When considering all the validation data, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 18.76, 23.55, and 22.08 W·m –2 are obtained for MARS, operational LSA-SAF, and ERA5, respectively. The added value of using the satellite cloud information is accessed by comparing with estimates driven by ERA5 total cloud cover, showing an increase of 17% of the RMSE. The consistency of MARS estimate is also tested against an independent dataset of 52 ground stations (from FLUXNET2015), further supporting the good performance of the proposed model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗