Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Probability distributions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47

Evolution of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections and stiffness of dense nuclear matter from Bayesian analyses of FOPI proton-flow excitation functions

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian process (GP) emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions with momentum-independent Skyrme interactions, we infer from the proton directed and elliptical flow in mid-central Au + Au reactions, measured at beam energies from 150 to 1200 MeV/nucleon by the FOPI Collaboration, the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section (BBSCS) modification factor 𝑋 (with respect to their free-space values) and the stiffness parameter 𝐾 of dense nuclear matter. Here, we find that the most probable value of 𝑋 evolves from around 0.7 to 1.0 as the beam energy 𝐸 beam /𝐴 increases. On the other hand, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) may have dual peaks having roughly the same height or extended shoulders at high 𝐾 values. More quantitatively, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) changes from having a major peak around 220 MeV, characterizing a soft EOS in the reaction at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 = 150 MeV, to one that peaks around 320 MeV, indicating a stiff EOS in the reactions at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 higher than about 600 MeV. The transition from soft to stiff happens in mid-central Au + Au reactions at beam energies around 250 MeV/nucleon in which 𝐾 = 220 MeV and 𝐾 = 320 MeV are approximately equally probable. Altogether, the FOPI proton-flow excitation function data indicate a gradual hardening of hot and dense nuclear matter as its density and temperature increase in reactions with higher beam energies.

nuclear matter↗

Investigations of the Fundamental Surface Reactions Involved in the Sorption and Desorption of Radionuclides

Models for describing solution- and surface-phase reactions have been used for 30 years, but only recently applicable to complex surfaces. Duff et al., using micro-XANES, found that Pu was concentrated on Mn-oxide and smectite phases of zeolitic tuff, providing an evaluation of contaminant speciation on surfaces for modeling. Experiments at Los Alamos demonstrated that actinides display varying surface residence time distributions, probably reflective of mineral surface heterogeneity. We propose to investigate the sorption/desorption behavior of radionuclides from mineral surfaces, as effected by microorganisms, employing isolates from Nevada Test Site deep alluvium as a model system. Characterizations will include surface area, particle size distribution, x-ray diffraction (XRD), microprobe analysis, extractions, and microbiology. Surface interactions will be assessed by electron spectroscopy (XPS), x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (XAFS), X-ray emission spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and Scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Desert Research Institute (DRI), University of Nevada, Reno (UNR), and University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) researchers will collaborate to enhance scientific infrastructure and the understanding of contaminant behavior on surfaces, with broader implications for the management of DOE sites.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Laser beam propagation in atmospheric turbulence

The optical effects of atmospheric turbulence on the propagation of low power laser beams are reviewed in this paper. The optical effects are produced by the temperature fluctuations which result in fluctuations of the refractive index of air. The commonly-used models of index-of-refraction fluctuations are presented. Laser beams experience fluctuations of beam size, beam position, and intensity distribution within the beam due to refractive turbulence. Some of the observed effects are qualitatively explained by treating the turbulent atmosphere as a collection of moving gaseous lenses of various sizes. Analytical results and experimental verifications of the variance, covariance and probability distribution of intensity fluctuations in weak turbulence are presented. For stronger turbulence, a saturation of the optical scintillations is observed. The saturation of scintillations involves a progressive break-up of the beam into multiple patches; the beam loses some of its lateral coherence. Heterodyne systems operating in a turbulent atmosphere experience a loss of heterodyne signal due to the destruction of coherence.

Murty, S. S. R.↗

Use of the WEST-1 wind turbine simulator to predict blade fatigue load distribution

To test the ability of WEST-1 to predict blade fatigue load distribution, actual wind signals were fed into the simulator and the response data were recorded and processed in the same manner as actual wind turbine data. The WEST-1 simulator was operated in a stable, unattended mode for six hours. The probability distribution of the cyclic flatwise bending moment for the blade was comparable to that for an actual wind turbine in winds with low turbulence. The input from a stationary anemometer was found to be inadequate for use in the prediction of fatigue load distribution for blade design purposes and modifications are necessary.

Janetzke, D. C.↗

Quantifying (dis)agreement between direct detection experiments in a halo-independent way

We propose an improved method to study recent and near-future dark matter direct detection experiments with small numbers of observed events. Our method determines in a quantitative and halo-independent way whether the experiments point towards a consistent dark matter signal and identifies the best-fit dark matter parameters. To achieve true halo independence, we apply a recently developed method based on finding the velocity distribution that best describes a given set of data. For a quantitative global analysis we construct a likelihood function suitable for small numbers of events, which allows us to determine the best-fit particle physics properties of dark matter considering all experiments simultaneously. Based on this likelihood function we propose a new test statistic that quantifies how well the proposed model fits the data and how large the tension between different direct detection experiments is. We perform Monte Carlo simulations in order to determine the probability distribution function of this test statistic and to calculate the p-value for both the dark matter hypothesis and the background-only hypothesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Galaxy mock catalogs for BAO analysis

The calibration and validation of scientific analysis in simulations is a fundamental tool to ensure unbiased and robust results in observational cosmology. In particular, mock galaxy catalogs are a crucial resource to achieve these goals in the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) in the clustering of galaxies. Here we present a set of 1952 galaxy mock catalogs designed to mimic the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 BAO sample over its full photometric redshift range 0.6 < zphoto < 1.1. The mocks are based upon 488 ICE-COLA fast N-body simulations of full-sky light cones and were created by populating halos with galaxies, using a hybrid halo occupation distribution – halo abundance matching model. This model has ten free parameters, which were determined, for the first time, using an automatic likelihood minimization procedure. We also introduced a novel technique to assign photometric redshift for simulated galaxies, following a two-dimensional probability distribution with VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey data. The calibration was designed to match the observed abundance of galaxies as a function of photometric redshift, the distribution of photometric redshift errors, and the clustering amplitude on scales smaller than those used for BAO measurements. An exhaustive analysis was done to ensure that the mocks reproduce the input properties. Finally, mocks were tested by comparing the angular correlation function w(θ), angular power spectrum Cℓ, and projected clustering ξp(r⊥) to theoretical predictions and data. The impact of volume replication in the estimate of the covariance is also investigated. The success in accurately reproducing the photometric redshift uncertainties and the galaxy clustering as a function of redshift render this mock creation pipeline as a benchmark for future analyses of photometric galaxy surveys.Key words: catalogs / large-scale structure of Universe / galaxies: distances and redshifts / Galaxy: halo / methods: numerical

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraining the mass and radius of neutron stars in globular clusters

In this paper, we analyse observations of eight quiescent low-mass X-ray binaries in globular clusters and combine them to determine the neutron star mass–radius curve and the equation of state of dense matter. We determine the effect that several uncertainties may have on our results, including uncertainties in the distance, the atmosphere composition, the neutron star maximum mass, the neutron star mass distribution, the possible presence of a hotspot on the neutron star surface, and the prior choice for the equation of state of dense matter. The distance uncertainty is implemented in a new Gaussian blurring method that can be directly applied to the probability distribution over mass and radius. We find that the radius of a 1.4 solar mass neutron star is most likely from 10 to 14 km and that tighter constraints are only possible with stronger assumptions about the nature of the neutron stars, the systematics of the observations, or the nature of dense matter. Finally, strong phase transitions in the equation of state are preferred, and in this case, the radius is likely smaller than 12 km. However, radii larger than 12 km are preferred if the neutron stars have uneven temperature distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deriving the Contribution of Blazars to the Fermi -LAT Extragalactic γ -ray Background at E > 10 GeV with Efficiency Corrections and Photon Statistics

Here, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) Collaboration has recently released the Third Catalog of Hard Fermi -LAT Sources (3FHL), which contains 1556 sources detected above 10 GeV with seven years of Pass 8 data. Building upon the 3FHL results, we investigate the flux distribution of sources at high Galactic latitudes ($|b| \gt 20^\circ $), which are mostly blazars. We use two complementary techniques: (1) a source-detection efficiency correction method and (2) an analysis of pixel photon count statistics with the one-point probability distribution function (1pPDF). With the first method, using realistic Monte Carlo simulations of the γ-ray sky, we calculate the efficiency of the LAT to detect point sources. This enables us to find the intrinsic source-count distribution at photon fluxes down to 7.5 × 10 –12 ph cm –2 s –1 . With this method, we detect a flux break at (3.5 ± 0.4) × 10 –11 ph cm –2 s –1 with a significance of at least 5.4σ. The power-law indexes of the source-count distribution above and below the break are 2.09 ± 0.04 and 1.07 ± 0.27, respectively. This result is confirmed with the 1pPDF method, which has a sensitivity reach of ~10 –11 ph cm –2 s –1 . Integrating the derived source-count distribution above the sensitivity of our analysis, we find that (42 ± 8)% of the extragalactic γ-ray background originates from blazars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Is the 80 - 20 Principle a Friend or a Foe? Critical Remarks on the Dominant Flat Gradient - 17206

The well-known 80 - 20 principle, also known as the Pareto principle, describes the fact that usually 80 % of the result is achieved by 20 % of the effort, because many probability distributions are caused by a power-law. This principle is valued in the realm of project management and management in general because of the fast progress which generally takes place in the first fifth of the process. If the final result is not exactly specified or resources are spent wisely, 100 % of the planned result will be reached easily. However, in nuclear business safety is a principal parameter. Therefore precision is inevitable. In long-lasting projects the bad end of the Pareto-distribution is dominant: The very shallowly-inclined gradient at the end of the graph means that results at that point come at a very high effort and cost. The graph reaches the 100% only asymptomatically, meaning the initially projected results are never met. Especially if in earlier project phases the Pareto principle is applied very successfully, a lot of work is transferred to the future. For example, in decommissioning projects the waste often is badly characterized causing an enormous effort in the process of characterization and qualification. Especially if funding or time are limited, it is important to be aware of the asymmetric distribution of applied work and result. The 80 - 20 principle is a great advantage, if you start a project and respect the asymmetric distribution of applied resources and results in your project plan. Especially in long-lasting projects with changing perspectives, this asymmetric distribution may cause massive delays and expansion of costs, because small changes near the end cause large/big effort due to consequences on the existing data. If the proper goal of a project is not entirely known in the beginning, it is very probable that the last 5 - 10 % of the result will cause major financial threat and extensions of the estimated time frame. If funding or time are limited, it is almost impossible to readjust a project in the estimated frame of resources. In this case a complete restart of the project may be more reasonable than a long-lasting change management with uncertain results. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Faraday dispersion functions of galaxies

The Faraday dispersion function (FDF), which can be derived from an observed polarization spectrum by Faraday rotation measure synthesis, is a profile of polarized emissions as a function of Faraday depth. We study intrinsic FDFs along sight lines through face-on Milky Way like galaxies by means of a sophisticated galactic model incorporating three-dimensional MHD turbulence, and investigate how much information the FDF intrinsically contains. Since the FDF reflects distributions of thermal and cosmic-ray electrons as well as magnetic fields, it has been expected that the FDF could be a new probe to examine internal structures of galaxies. We, however, find that an intrinsic FDF along a sight line through a galaxy is very complicated, depending significantly on actual configurations of turbulence. We perform 800 realizations of turbulence and find no universal shape of the FDF even if we fix the global parameters of the model. We calculate the probability distribution functions of the standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of FDFs and compare them for models with different global parameters. Our models predict that the presence of vertical magnetic fields and the large-scale height of cosmic-ray electrons tend to make the standard deviation relatively large. In contrast, the differences in skewness and kurtosis are relatively less significant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STOCHASTIC STAR FORMATION AND A (NEARLY) UNIFORM STELLAR INITIAL MASS FUNCTION

Recent observations indicate a lower H{alpha} to FUV ratio in dwarf galaxies than in brighter systems, a trend that could be explained by a truncated and/or steeper initial mass function (IMF) in small galaxies. However, at low star formation rates (SFRs), the H{alpha} to FUV ratio can vary due to stochastic sampling even for a universal IMF, a hypothesis that has, prior to this work, received limited investigation. Using SLUG, a fully stochastic code for synthetic photometry in star clusters and galaxies, we compare the H{alpha} and FUV luminosity in a sample of {approx}450 nearby galaxies with models drawn from a universal Kroupa IMF and a modified IMF, the integrated galactic initial mass function (IGIMF). Once random sampling and time evolution are included, a Kroupa IMF convolved with the cluster mass function (CMF) reproduces the observed H{alpha} distribution at all FUV luminosities, while a truncated IMF as implemented in current IGIMF models underpredicts the H{alpha} luminosity by more than an order of magnitude at the lowest SFRs. We conclude that the observed luminosity is the result of the joint probability distribution function of the SFR, CMF, and a universal IMF, consistent with parts of the IGIMF theory, but that a truncation in the IMF in clusters is inconsistent with the observations. Future work will examine stochastic star formation and its time dependence in detail to study whether random sampling can explain other observations that suggest a varying IMF.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: exploring the halo occupation distribution model for emission line galaxies

We study the modelling of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) for the eBOSS DR16 emission line galaxies (ELGs). Motivated by previous theoretical and observational studies, we consider different physical effects that can change how ELGs populate haloes. We explore the shape of the average HOD, the fraction of satellite galaxies, their probability distribution function (PDF), and their density and velocity profiles. Our baseline HOD shape was fitted to a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and evolution, with a decaying occupation of central ELGs at high halo masses. We consider Poisson and sub/super-Poissonian PDFs for satellite assignment. We model both Navarro–Frenk–White and particle profiles for satellite positions, also allowing for decreased concentrations. We model velocities with the virial theorem and particle velocity distributions. Additionally, we introduce a velocity bias and a net infall velocity. We study how these choices impact the clustering statistics while keeping the number density and bias fixed to that from eBOSS ELGs. The projected correlation function, w p , captures most of the effects from the PDF and satellites profile. The quadrupole, ξ 2 , captures most of the effects coming from the velocity profile. We find that the impact of the mean HOD shape is subdominant relative to the rest of choices. Here, we fit the clustering of the eBOSS DR16 ELG data under different combinations of the above assumptions. The catalogues presented here have been analysed in companion papers, showing that eBOSS RSD+BAO measurements are insensitive to the details of galaxy physics considered here. These catalogues are made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Climatologically tuned reflectivity-rain rate relations and links to area-time integrals

An effort is made to determine relationships between reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (R) which are tuned to the local climatology. The development of such relations was motivated by the need to understand the role of precipitation in controlling general circulation and in affecting such phenomena as ENSO. Attention is given to methods of deriving such relations and how they are linked to area integral rainfall measurements. In essence, the relation is tuned so that the probability distribution of reflectivity, P(Z), replicates that of R over some predetermined space-time climatic domain. Thus, the accurate measurement of the average R over any smaller domain depends on how closely the sampled P(Z) approximates the climatic P(Z). The probability matching method used is a modification of the approach of Calheiros and Zawadzki (1987) and Rosenfeld (1980). The technique is applied to data from Germany and the eastern tropical Atlantic (GATE).

Atlas, David↗

Distributed Constrained Optimization with Semicoordinate Transformations

Recent work has shown how information theory extends conventional full-rationality game theory to allow bounded rational agents. The associated mathematical framework can be used to solve constrained optimization problems. This is done by translating the problem into an iterated game, where each agent controls a different variable of the problem, so that the joint probability distribution across the agents moves gives an expected value of the objective function. The dynamics of the agents is designed to minimize a Lagrangian function of that joint distribution. Here we illustrate how the updating of the Lagrange parameters in the Lagrangian is a form of automated annealing, which focuses the joint distribution more and more tightly about the joint moves that optimize the objective function. We then investigate the use of "semicoordinate" variable transformations. These separate the joint state of the agents from the variables of the optimization problem, with the two connected by an onto mapping. We present experiments illustrating the ability of such transformations to facilitate optimization. We focus on the special kind of transformation in which the statistically independent states of the agents induces a mixture distribution over the optimization variables. Computer experiment illustrate this for &sat constraint satisfaction problems and for unconstrained minimization of NK functions.

Macready, William↗

On the uncertainty of temperature estimation in a rapid compression machine

Rapid compression machines (RCMs) have been widely used in the combustion literature to study the low-to-intermediate temperature ignition of many fuels. In a typical RCM, the pressure during and after the compression stroke is measured. Yet, measurement of the temperature history in the RCM reaction chamber is challenging. Thus, the temperature is generally calculated by the isentropic relations between pressure and temperature, assuming that the adiabatic core hypothesis holds. To estimate the uncertainty in the calculated temperature, an uncertainty propagation analysis must be carried out. Our previous analyses assumed that the uncertainties of the parameters in the equation to calculate the temperature were normally distributed and independent, but these assumptions do not hold for typical RCM operating procedures. Here, a Monte Carlo method is developed to estimate the uncertainty in the calculated temperature, while taking into account the correlation between parameters and the possibility of non-normal probability distributions. In addition, the Monte Carlo method is compared to an analysis that assumes normally distributed, independent parameters. Both analysis methods show that the magnitude of the initial pressure and the uncertainty of the initial temperature have strong influences on the magnitude of the uncertainty. Finally, the uncertainty estimation methods studied here provide a reference value for the uncertainty of the reference temperature in an RCM and can be generalized to other similar facilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Monte Carlo simulation of the passage of $\gamma$-rays and $\alpha$-particles in CsI

In this work, theoretical and computational methods for simulating the creation of ionization tracks by fast ions in solids were applied to the passage of a-particles in CsI, an inorganic scintillator commonly used for radiation detection. The methods were implemented in a Monte Carlo program to simulate the interaction of $\alpha$-particles, with incident energies of up to 1 MeV, with CsI. The simulations followed the fate of individual electron-hole pairs and thus allowed for a detailed description of the microscopic structure of ionization tracks created by incident radiation. Simulations were also performed with $\gamma$-rays of the same energy to compare and contrast the ionization tracks obtained with both types of particle. Intrinsic properties such as the mean energy per electron-hole pair, Fano factor, maximum theoretical light yield, and spatial distributions of electron-hole pairs were computed for both $\alpha$-particles and $\gamma$-rays. $\alpha$-particles created cylindrical tracks that were initially aligned with the incident direction and with initial radii of a few nanometers, whereas $\gamma$-rays showed significant scattering, resulting in probability distributions with lower intensities and much greater radial extents.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Assessing correlated truncation errors in modern nucleon-nucleon potentials

We test the BUQEYE model of correlated effective field theory (EFT) truncation errors on Reinert, Krebs, and Epelbaum's semilocal momentum-space implementation of the chiral EFT (𝜒⁢EFT ) expansion of the nucleon-nucleon (NN) potential. This Bayesian model hypothesizes that dimensionless coefficient functions extracted from the order-by-order corrections to NN observables can be treated as draws from a Gaussian process (GP). We combine a variety of graphical and statistical diagnostics to assess when predicted observables have a 𝜒⁢EFT convergence pattern consistent with the hypothesized GP statistical model. Our conclusions are that, first, the BUQEYE model is generally applicable to the potential investigated here, which enables statistically principled estimates of the impact of higher EFT orders on observables. Second, parameters defining the extracted coefficients such as the expansion parameter 𝑄 must be well chosen for the coefficients to exhibit a regular convergence pattern—a property we exploit to obtain posterior distributions for such quantities. Third, the assumption of GP stationarity across lab energy and scattering angle is not generally met; this necessitates adjustments in future work. We provide a workflow and interpretive guide for our analysis framework, and show what can be inferred about probability distributions for 𝑄, the EFT breakdown scale Λ 𝑏 , the scale associated with soft physics in the 𝜒⁢EFT potential 𝑚 eff , and the GP hyperparameters. All our results can be reproduced using a publicly available Jupyter notebook, which can be straightforwardly modified to analyze other 𝜒⁢EFT NN potentials.

Bayesian methods↗

The Poisson tensor completion parametric estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator that exploits inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram for samples of a multivariate distribution. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial non-homogeneous Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the mean measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values obviating the need for additional constraints to ensure non-negativity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗