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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Analysis of Pulsed Laser Annealed Poly-Si:Ga/SiOx Passivating Contacts

High-efficiency single crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells require precise control of dopant diffusion profiles and highly active doping concentrations through thermal annealing. Conventional furnace annealing has been successfully employed for dopant diffusion in aluminum back-surface field (Al-BSF), passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC), and Topcon cells. However, furnace annealing limits some next-generation polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) on SiOx passivating contacts. This limitation largely affects p-type passivating contacts by not being able to: 1) control the dopant diffusion accurately to prevent B segregation at the SiOx and c-Si interface; and 2) provide highly activated doping concentrations for low contact resistivity. In this contribution, we use a nanosecond excimer laser to examine the passivation quality and electrical performance of both B- and Ga-doped poly-Si/SiOx passivating contacts. The core of this method is to take advantage of the nonequilibrium nature of the anneal through rapid melting and recrystallizing the poly-Si in a short timescale and to achieve doping concentrations above the solid solubility limit. Simulations were performed on polished surfaces to visualize the doping diffusion profiles under different laser conditions, and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) was used to verify the experimental diffusion profiles post pulsed laser melting (PLM). The results show the dopant diffusion profiles can be tuned precisely through PLM. The electrical analysis using VdP-Hall measurements reveals that the active doping concentration reached 10^21 cm-3 for B and ~2×10^21 cm-3 for Ga in poly-Si, far exceeding their solid solubility limit in Si, with a nearly 100% dopant activation achieved for B, and 20% for Ga. This highly activated dopant profile results in a low contact resistivity of <15 mO·cm^2 for B-doped contacts and <40 mO·cm^2 for Ga-doped contacts. We demonstrate that the passivation quality of the laser annealed contacts shows a linear dependency with the laser energy density and the number of pulses. PLM was also performed on random pyramid textured samples, and we found that preferential melting exists for the tips of pyramids, which can be pursued further for selective pinhole opening. Additionally, we perform thermal stability tests of these hyperdoped passivating contacts and show that under certain laser conditions, the B-doped samples exhibit good thermal stability with near full activation for temperatures up to 800°C. Lastly, we transfer this technique to a larger area by overlapping laser spots and show uniform passivation quality and electrical performance. We are currently implementing this PLM annealed p-type passivating contacts into double-side back-junction poly-Si/SiOx passivating contact devices. Our results show that PLM can not only enable the next generation of high-efficiency c-Si photovoltaics technology but can also benefit the c-Si integrated circuit industry through hyperdoping other semiconductors with atoms that may otherwise have a low solubility.

doping diffusion profile↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transmission and Distribution Real-Time Analysis Software for Monitoring and Control: Design and Simulation Testing

The US electric grid is facing operational, stability, and security challenges. Transmission system operators need some measure of visibility into distribution system renewable generation. Distribution system generation needs to support transmission system voltage. The grid is experiencing an expansion in measurement systems. How to take full advantage of this expansion and defend against attacks, both cyber and physical, poses additional challenges. This paper introduces software designed to meet these challenges. At the center of the software is an Integrated System Model (ISM) that spans from transmission to secondary distribution. The ISM is employed in real-time abnormality detection, voltage stability forecasting, and multi-mode control. The software architecture along with selected analysis modules is presented. Testing results are presented for: 1—attacks on utility infrastructure; 2—energy savings from optimal control; 3—distribution system control response during a low voltage transmission system event; 4—cyber-attacks on PV inverters, where physical inverters are used in hardware-in-the-simulation-loop studies. Contributions of this work include real-time analysis that spans from three-phase transmission through secondary distribution; an approach for detecting abnormalities that employs measurements from three independent measurement systems; and a multi-mode distribution system control that responds to cyber-attacks, physical attacks, equipment failures, and transmission system needs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the operational characteristics and economic value of pumped thermal energy storage

Pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) systems use an electrically-driven heat pump to store electricity in the form of thermal energy, and subsequently dispatch the stored thermal energy to generate electricity using a thermodynamic heat engine. Optimal day-ahead operational scheduling and annual value of a PTES system based on Joule-Brayton thermodynamic cycles and two-tank molten salt hot thermal storage is evaluated in this work. Production cost models, which simultaneously optimize commitment and dispatch schedules for an entire set of generators to minimize the cost of satisfying electricity demand, are employed to determine system-optimal operation and day-ahead energy value of the PTES system within each of six hypothetical near-future grid scenarios intended to approximately represent the U.S. Western Interconnection or the Texas Interconnection. Sensitivity to grid scenario (including the contribution of variable renewable energy sources), thermal storage capacity, relative heat pump and heat engine capacities, and startup/shutdown cycling costs are evaluated. PTES energy value and heat engine annual capacity factor increase strongly as the contribution of variable renewable resources increases, heat pump capacity increases relative to heat engine capacity, or PTES cycling costs decrease. Grid scenarios in which the contribution of variable renewable energy is dominated by solar photovoltaics (PV) vs. wind produce inherently different PTES operational patterns. Annual PTES energy value within PV-dominated scenarios increased with storage capacity only up to approximately seven hours of full-load discharge capacity, whereas that within wind-dominated scenarios exhibited a continual increase with storage duration up to at least 16 hours.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2007

Recovery of Electron/Proton Radiation-Induced Defects in n+p AlInGaP Solar Cell by Minority-Carrier Injection Annealing

A high efficient In0.48Ga0.52P/In0.01Ga0.99As/Ge triple junction solar cell has been developed for application in space and terrestrial concentrator PV system [1-3]. Recently, a high conversion efficiency of 31.5% (AM1.5G) has been obtained in InGaP/(In)GaAs/Ge triple junction solar cell, and as a new top cell material of triple junction cells, (Al)InGaP [1] has been proposed to improve the open-circuit voltage (Voc) because it shows a higher Voc of 1.5V while maintaining the same short-circuit current (ISC) as a conventional InGaP top cell under AM1.5G conditions as seen in figure 1 (a). Moreover, the spectral response of 1.96eV AlInGaP cell with a thickness of 2.5..m shows a higher response in the long wavelength region, compared with that of 1.87eV InGaP cell with 0.6..m thickness, as shown in figure 1 (b). Its development will realize next generation multijunction (MJ) solar cells such as a lattice mismatched AlInGaP/InGaAs/Ge 3-junction and lattice matched AlInGaP/GaAs/InGaAsN/Ge 4-junction solar cells. Figure 2 shows the super high-efficiency MJ solar cell structures and wide band spectral response by MJ solar cells under AM1.5G conditions. For realizing high efficient MJ space solar cells, the higher radiation-resistance under the electron or proton irradiation is required. The irradiation studies for a conventional top cell InGaP have been widely done [4-6], but little irradiation work has been performed on AlInGaP solar cells. Recently, we made the first reports of 1 MeV electron or 30 keV proton irradiation effects on AlInGaP solar cells, and evaluated the defects generated by the irradiation [7,8]. The present study describes the recovery of 1 MeV electron / 30 keV proton irradiation-induced defects in n+p- AlInGaP solar cells by minority-carrier injection enhanced annealing or isochronal annealing. The origins of irradiation-induced defects observed by deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS) measurements are discussed.

Lee, H. S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Accurate Modeling of Converter Interfaced Generation (CIG) on a Practical Bulk Power System

With increased penetration of converter interfaced generation (CIG) in power systems, it becomes imperative to adequately model them in both steady-state and dynamic simulations. There are several modeling approaches and simulation platforms for CIG. In addition, it is noted that suitability of modeling approaches and models is also dependent on the system conditions. However, their suitability has yet to be systematically analyzed, and this becomes a challenge in the industry without a systemic method. To tackle these challenges, in this paper, we first develop a methodology for identifying the maximum penetration of aggregated rooftop sources that can be represented as negative loads in both the steady state and dynamic analysis. Then we verify the suitability of positive-sequence performance-based model and detailed electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for utility-scale PV plants under different fault conditions. Based on the results, we perform dynamic simulations on a large practical system with both positive-sequence transient stability(TS) and EMT-TS hybrid simulation. Our study shows that positive-sequence performance based PV plant model is more suitable for study cases with faults relatively far away from the point of connection, and that positive-sequence models and TS simulation approach can produce comparable results with reference to EMT-TS hybrid simulation for normally-cleared single-line-to-ground faults, but the inadequacy of positive-sequence based model and simulation approach becomes obvious for prolonged-tripping of unbalanced faults in proximity of the PV plants.

Huang, Qiuhua↗
DOE OSTI2021

Glass/glass photovoltaic module reliability and degradation: a review

Glass/glass (G/G) photovoltaic (PV) module construction is quickly rising in popularity due to increased demand for bifacial PV modules, with additional applications for thin-film and building-integrated PV technologies. G/G modules are expected to withstand harsh environmental conditions and extend the installed module lifespan to greater than 30 years compared to conventional glass/backsheet (G/B) modules. With the rapid growth of G/G deployment, understanding the outdoor performance, degradation, and reliability of this PV module construction becomes highly valuable. In this review, we present the history of G/G modules that have existed in the field for the past 20 years, their subsequent reliability issues under different climates, and methods for accelerated testing and characterization of both cells and packaging materials. We highlight some general trends of G/G modules, such as greater degradation when using poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) encapsulants, causing the industry to move toward polyolefin-based encapsulants. Transparent backsheets have also been introduced as an alternative to the rear glass for decreasing the module weight and aiding the effusion of trapped gaseous degradation products in the laminate. New amendments to IEC 61215 standard protocols for G/G bifacial modules have also been proposed so that the rear side power generation and UV exposure will be standardized. We further summarize a suite of destructive and non-destructive characterization techniques, such as current-voltage scans, module electro-optical imaging, adhesion tests, nanoscale structural/chemical investigation, and forensic analysis, to provide deeper insights into the fundamental properties of the module materials degradation and how it can be monitored in the G/G construction. This will set the groundwork for future research and product development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Glass/Glass Photovoltaic Module Reliability and Degradation: A Review - Figures

Glass/glass (G/G) photovoltaic (PV) module construction is quickly rising in popularity due to increased demand for bifacial PV modules, with additional applications for thin-film and building-integrated PV technologies. G/G modules are expected to withstand harsh environmental conditions and extend the installed module lifespan to greater than 30 years compared to conventional glass/backsheet (G/B) modules. With the rapid growth of G/G deployment, understanding the outdoor performance, degradation, and reliability of this PV module construction becomes highly valuable. In this review, we present the history of G/G modules that have existed in the field for the past 20 years, their subsequent reliability issues under different climates, and methods for accelerated testing and characterization of both cells and packaging materials. We highlight some general trends of G/G modules, such as greater degradation when using poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) encapsulants, causing the industry to move toward polyolefin-based encapsulants. Transparent backsheets have also been introduced as an alternative to the rear glass for decreasing the module weight and aiding the effusion of trapped gaseous degradation products in the laminate. New amendments to IEC 61215 standard protocols for G/G bifacial modules have also been proposed so that the rear side power generation and UV exposure will be standardized. We further summarize a suite of destructive and non-destructive characterization techniques, such as current-voltage scans, module electro-optical imaging, adhesion tests, nanoscale structural/chemical investigation, and forensic analysis, to provide deeper insights into the fundamental properties of the module materials degradation and how it can be monitored in the G/G construction. This will set the groundwork for future research and product development.

transparent backsheet↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling and Analysis of Stirling Power Convertors

Modeling and Analysis of Stirling Power Convertors Luis A. Rodriguez1 Steven M. Geng, Terry V. Reid, Scott D. Wilson NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, OH, 44135, USA NASA Glenn’s Thermal Energy Conversion Branch is supporting the development of the next generation free-piston Stirling power convertors. American Superconductor (AMSC) and Sunpower Inc. are the two firms under contract to develop the Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC) and the Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC), respectively. To comprehend and forecast convertor performance, Sage, ANSYS® Maxwell, and ANSYS® Fluent were used to model the Stirling thermodynamic cycle, alternator electromagnetics, and piston and displacer dynamics. I. Introduction Stirling convertors are being developed by NASA as a potential steady source of electrical power for NASA’s future scientific space missions. Currently, NASA Glenn Research Center has two corporations under contract, American Superconductor (AMSC) and Sunpower Inc., for the development of the next generation of free-piston Stirling convertors for dynamic radioisotope power systems. AMSC is developing the Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC), which uses flexures to prevent side motion and rubbing of the piston. Similarly, Sunpower Inc, is developing the Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC). The SRSC uses gas bearings to prevent radial contact of the moving piston. As convertor development continues, it is increasingly important to understand and predict the interactions of components in the system, how they respond to one another, and how they perform as a response to changes in operating conditions. A suitable and enlightening way to demonstrate and foresee these interactions is with the use of accurate modeling software. Sage, ANSYS® Maxwell, and ANSYS® Fluent are the current modeling tools used by NASA to analytically determine convertor performance. Sage is a one-dimensional object-oriented commercial software package used for modeling and optimizing Stirling convertors for Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (DRPS) and it is one of the most accurate Stirling convertor codes in use by NASA. This code is the successor to GLIMPS (Globally-Implicit Stirling Cycle Simulation) and GLOP (GLIMPS Optimization) software created by Gedeon Associates [1]. Model input parameters are typically material/gas type, component physical dimensions, temperatures, frequency, charge pressure, and number of time/space nodes. Sage is used to model both the FISC’s and SRSC’s Stirling cycle thermodynamics and piston/displacer dynamics. Performance maps were created and analyzed for both power systems to better understand the relationship between the following conditions: cold-end temperature, hot-end temperature, piston/displacer amplitudes, pressure drop, and thermal input power. The synergy between these conditions will help determine parameter sensitivity. ANSYS® Maxwell was used to create a three-dimensional (3-D) axisymmetric model for both FISC and SRSC alternators. The significant physical components included in each model are the magnets, magnet carrier, outer/inner laminations, and the coil. Inputs to the model are piston amplitude, piston frequency, alternator load, coil resistance, tuning capacitance, and specific material properties. The alternator models calculate terminal voltage, current, piston/current phase, voltage/current phase, coil inductance, terminal power and efficiency. The RI2 losses, core (hysteresis and eddy) losses, and magnet/can eddy losses are also a part of the final results. ANSYS® Fluent is used to build 3-D computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models to examine the Stirling cycle thermodynamics for both the FISC and SRSC systems. Three-dimensional Computer Aided Design (CAD) models were used to create the physical components of each convertor. Steady-state simulations were conducted for hardware testing, prediction of environmental losses during testing, and generation of radiation look-up tables. The model inputs to the aforementioned analysis are the material properties and boundary thermal conditions. The steady-state model calculates temperature and heat flow distributions. Transient 3-D calculations were also part of the CFD analysis. In this study a physically reduced version of the FISC is used to obtain a prediction of available engine power. For the gas bearing SRSC, the transient effort is used to obtain a prediction of bearing pad performance and its sensitivity to micro-channel geometric variation. The model inputs to the transient simulations are the piston amplitude, displacer amplitude, frequency, displacer/piston phase angle, dynamic deforming CFD grid, temperature boundary conditions, and user defined files describing motion profile of piston/displacer. The results of the model are temperature distributions, heat distributions, and PV power produced at pre-determined conditions.

Luis A Rodriguez↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reducing the computational burden of a microgrid energy management system

As renewable technology advances and decreases in cost, microgrids are becoming an appealing means of distributed generation both for isolated communities and integrated with existing electrical grid systems. Due to their small size, however, microgrids may have financial limitations which preclude them from using commercial software to optimize control of their assets. Open-source optimization solvers are a viable alternative, but increase computation time. This work expands on a rolling horizon optimization framework for economic dispatch within an existing residential microgrid located in Hoover, Alabama. The microgrid has an open-source solver requirement and a need for quick solution time on a rolling horizon as opposed to a day-ahead commitment. We present a method of reducing integer variables by relaxation which completes two goals: reduction in computation time for real-time operations, and reduction in daily operational cost for the microgrid. Seasonal data for load and photovoltaic (PV) power was also collected from the microgrid to facilitate simulation testing. Computation time was successfully reduced using multiple variations of the relaxation method, while obtaining solution quality with operational cost similar to or better than the original model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Community-Scale Energy Efficiency Assessment for Zero Net Energy Using the URBANopt Simulation Platform: Preprint

This project explored an innovative modeling approach for assessing the energy efficiency potential of the existing low-income Oceano neighborhood, in unincorporated San Luis Obispo County, and its effects on renewable generation requirements for achieving zero net energy (ZNE). One particular challenge faced was ascertaining the technical energy savings potential across a large neighborhood in a timely manner. The project overcame this challenge through the use of the URBANopt simulation platform, developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. URBANopt manages the automated model creation, simulation, and result aggregation for different design scenarios of existing or candidate buildings in a large neighborhood. Customized energy efficiency packages considered for the residential and commercial sector in the neighborhood included lighting, HVAC, plug load, water heating, envelope, and energy education measures. As a result of the analysis for the Oceano community, energy efficiency measures that are available through incentive programs may provide a 7.4% reduction in the required distributed energy resource (DER) size, corresponding to a 25,000 ft2 decrease in PV array area, to achieve ZNE. Through this work, a computational tool was developed and is being leveraged by the County of San Luis Obispo (CoSLO). The tool has enabled the CoSLO staff to perform similar analysis of the technical potential for energy efficiency, and an understanding of the DER asset requirements and potential savings in other communities within the county.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cross-sectoral synergies for household energy savings: the role of electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and remote work

Over the past two decades, new technologies and behavioral shifts – such as electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and increased work-from-home practices – have reshaped residential electricity consumption and cost. However, their combined or synergistic impact on a household’s electricity cost remains unexplored. Leveraging data from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, this study uses a structural equation model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. Results indicate that adopting both EVs and PV reduces electricity costs by 31% despite a 16% rise in consumption. When combined with stay-at-home practices, households still experience a 13% cost reduction, even with a 25% increase in electricity consumption. In conclusion, these findings suggest that financial savings are not merely a byproduct of adopting new technologies or behavioral changes but could serve as a key consideration for household contemplating engagement with multiple modern energy solutions simultaneously.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parcel-Scale Assessment of Rooftop Solar Technical Potential

Understanding the potential for rooftop solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs) to contribute to power system planning is increasingly relevant for cities, utilities, and other planning entities. Such planning efforts typically require an estimate of technical potential, or the feasible technology potential independent of economic considerations. Currently, best-in-class rooftop solar technical potential methods use Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data which can identify each roof plane tilt, azimuth, and unshaded area. However, LiDAR data is not universally available and, even when available, obtaining and processing this data can be expensive. In contrast, parcel-level data is easy to use and widely available as it is generated by jurisdictions to levy property taxes. Such data universally reports building footprint area, which is highly correlated with roof area suitable (developable) for rooftop solar. Moreover, parcel data identifies building end-use, tenure, and other building characteristics not provided by LiDAR. To explore the feasibility of using parcel data to assess technical potential more broadly, we compare estimates using parcel data in Orlando, Florida (HIFLD 2020) to those generated using LiDAR data (Koebrich et al. 2021). We find that the parcel-based method results in accurate technical potential estimates at a block and city-scale, though only after accounting for shading and other factors that derate developable roof area. The results of this study demonstrate a scalable, low-effort approach to assess rooftop solar technical potential for every city and community in the U.S.

census blocks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deployment Potential of Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in California

As states within the United States respond to future grid development goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and resilient nighttime generation that can be addressed by low-cost, long-duration energy storage solutions. This report studies the potential of including concentrating solar power (CSP) in the technology mix to support California’s goals as defined in Senate Bill 100. A joint agency report study that determined potential pathways to achieve the renewable portfolio standard set by the bill did not include CSP, and our work provides information that could be used as a follow-up. This study uses a capacity expansion model configured to have nodal spatial fidelity in California and balancing-area fidelity in the Western Interconnection outside of California. The authors discovered that by applying current technology cost projections CSP fulfills nearly 15% of the annual load while representing just 6% of total installed capacity in 2045, replacing approximately 30 GWe of wind, solar PV, and standalone batteries compared to a scenario without CSP included. The deployment of CSP in the results is sensitive to the technology’s cost, which highlights the importance of meeting cost targets in 2030 and beyond to enable the technology’s potential contribution to California’s carbon reduction goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interpretation of high-speed flows in the plasma sheet

Pursuing an idea suggested by Pontius and Wolf (1990), we propose that the `bursty bulk flows' observed by Baumjohann et al. (1990) and Angelopoulos et al. (1992) are `bubbles' in the Earth's plasma sheet. Specifically, they are flux tubes that have lower values of pV(exp 5/3) than their neighbors, where p is the thermal pressure of the particles and V is the volume of a tube containing one unit of magnetic flux. Whether they are created by reconnection or some other mechanism, the bubbles are propelled earthward by a magnetic buoyancy force, which is related to the interchange instability. Most of the major observed characteristics of the bursty bulk flows can be interpreted naturally in terms of the bubble picture. We propose a new `stratified fluid' picture of the plasma sheet, based on the idea that bubbles constitute the crucial transport mechanism. Results from simple mathematical models of plasma sheet transport support the idea that bubbles can resolve the pressure balance inconsistency, particularly in cases where plasma sheet ions are lost by gradient/curvature drift out the sides of the tail or bubbles are generated by reconnection in the middle of plasma sheet.

Chen, C. X.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Merefa Community Microgrid: Supporting Distributed Energy Resource Deployment in Ukraine

A conceptual design is described for a community microgrid in Ukraine. Microgrid resources include solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage, and conventional natural gas fueled reciprocating engine generators. The conceptual architecture was informed by the microgrid developer, NREL subject matter experts, and the application of REopt, an NREL-developed software tool created for identification of least-cost combination of resources for achieving cost savings, resilience, and renewable energy goals. This fact sheet is a summary of a previously published technical report; see NREL/TP-7A40-89527, which includes conceptual architecture, estimates of key summary financial metrics, and sequence of operations.

battery storage↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies

Assigning capacity value to renewable energy sources (RES) is a challenge faced in planning their integration with the grid. The difficulties stem from the natural characteristics of variability and intermittency of wind and solar sources. The capacity credit (CC) analysis evaluates the system’s actual power output compared with a constant capacity generator, i.e., conventional generator and determines an effective capacity to use for planning and operation. Herein this paper presents different factors that could affect the CC of a system. Two methods are proposed to determine the CC, namely equivalent firm capacity (EFC) and effective load carrying capability (ELCC). Since these methods are based on satisfying reliability criteria, daily loss of load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss of load (LOLH), and expected energy not served (EENS) have been employed as indices. To obtain the CC value, both methods apply two techniques: traditional and optimization. Genetic algorithm (GA) is the optimization approach used in this paper. Then, this work compares the two techniques and shows the superior performance of the optimization approach. Two hybrid systems, stand-alone (SA) and grid-connected (GC) modes, are proposed and used as case studies. The hybrid systems consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and battery energy storage system (BESS). In this work, three different scenarios are used to compare capacity credit: system as a whole, only wind, and no batteries. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of varying the wind speed, solar irradiation, and load. It is demonstrated that the choice of reliability index plays an important role in determining the capacity credit and it is shown that EENS is a more comprehensive and consistent index of reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗