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NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the shortcomings of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-the-art in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority weaknesses within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

0↗
NASA NTRS2016

Surgical Capabilities for Exploration and Colonization Space Flight - An Exploration Symposium

Surgical capabilities in human space flight, whether on a space-based platform in low Earth orbit or on a long duration planetary exploration mission, will be challenging to conduct for a variety of reasons, some of which will be ameliorated by training, technology, and pre-flight planning. Nevertheless, inherent risks and challenges remain. Early space missions did not have any surgical capability. It was not until NASA's Skylab mission that serious consideration was given to this fundamental medical care capability. Over the past 30 years, subject matter experts have been brought together for discussion on the myriad of challenges and opportunities in this endeavor. The last such meeting was held in 2005 at the NASA Johnson Space Center. As we continue to move forward with human space flight activities for the International Space Station and beyond, the capabilities of information technology, robotics, sensors and imaging have rapidly changed since the last gathering of expertise. In December 2015, through sponsorship of the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI), a diverse group of individuals from government, academia, and industry representing three countries gathered at the NSBRI Space 4 Biomedicine facility in Houston, TX. This two day symposia included comprehensive sessions that addressed the challenges that we all face in developing, deploying, and utilizing surgical care capabilities in all human space missions, regardless of mission duration or profile. The symposium benefited from the knowledge and experience of three seasoned NASA physician astronauts, Drs. Jay Buckey, Thomas Marshburn, and Lee Morin. At the end of the first day, the assembled group heard from the crew members about their experiences and their ideas. It is clear that the discussion of surgical capabilities is part of the larger discussion of consideration of advanced healthcare, including critical care, on exploration space missions. This report represents the culmination of the symposium, capturing knowledge, experience, conceptual dialogue, and a narrative that can be used in supporting the development of future programs and potential policy. Each of the presentations that were provided by the guest speakers is included in the appendices. Those presentations that are not included were due to sensitivity of the material or at the request of the speaker. In addition, each speaker was offered an opportunity to provide comments in a 'lightning round' format. All of these comments and speaker abstracts also appear in the appendices. At the conclusion of the second day, a discussion was held that reviewed the priorities that perhaps add value to decision makers. These are also summarized. This report will serve as the final product of this symposium. Additional material may be produced for the peer-reviewed literature.

Doarn, Charles R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

Foreman, Veronica L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Kepler Uniform Modeling of KOIs: MCMC Notes for Data Release 25

This document describes data products related to the reported planetary parameters and uncertainties for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) based on a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) analysis. Reported parameters, uncertainties and data products can be found at the NASA Exoplanet Archive . The codes used for this data analysis are available on the Github website (Rowe 2016). The relevant paper for details of the calculations is Rowe et al. (2015). The main differences between the model fits discussed here and those in the DR24 catalogue are that the DR25 light curves were used in the analysis, our processing of the MAST light curves took into account different data flags, the number of chains calculated was doubled to 200 000, and the parameters which are reported are based on a damped least-squares fit, instead of the median value from the Markov chain or the chain with the lowest 2 as reported in the past.

DR25↗
NASA NTRS2019

Science Mission Directorate TechPort Records for 2019 STI-DAA Release

The role of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) is to enable NASA to achieve its science goals in the context of the Nation's science agenda. SMD's strategic decisions regarding future missions and scientific pursuits are guided by Agency goals, input from the science community including the recommendations set forth in the National Research Council (NRC) decadal surveys and a commitment to preserve a balanced program across the major science disciplines. Toward this end, each of the four SMD science divisions -- Heliophysics, Earth Science, Planetary Science, and Astrophysics -- develops fundamental science questions upon which to base future research and mission programs.

Seablom, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

2020 SCIENCE MISSION DIRECTORATE TECHNOLOGY HIGHLIGHTS

The role of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) is to enable NASA to achieve its science goals in the context of the nation's science agenda. SMD's strategic decisions regarding future missions and scientific pursuits are guided by agency goals, input from the science community including the recommendations set forth in the National Research Council (NRC) decadal surveys and a commitment to preserve a balanced program across the major science disciplines. Toward this end, each of the four SMD science divisions -- Heliophysics, Earth Science, Planetary Science, and Astrophysics -- develops fundamental science questions upon which to base future research and mission programs.

Michael S Seablom↗
NASA NTRS2015

Comparative Habitability of Transiting Exoplanets

Exoplanet habitability is traditionally assessed by comparing a planet’s semimajor axis to the location of its host star’s “habitable zone,” the shell around a star for which Earth-like planets can possess liquid surface water. The Kepler space telescope has discovered numerous planet candidates near the habitable zone, and many more are expected from missions such as K2, TESS, and PLATO. These candidates often require significant follow-up observations for validation, so prioritizing planets for habitability from transit data has become an important aspect of the search for life in the universe. We propose a method to compare transiting planets for their potential to support life based on transit data, stellar properties and previously reported limits on planetary emitted flux. For a planet in radiative equilibrium, the emitted flux increases with eccentricity, but decreases with albedo. As these parameters are often unconstrained, there is an “eccentricity-albedo degeneracy” for the habitability of transiting exoplanets. Our method mitigates this degeneracy, includes a penalty for large-radius planets, uses terrestrial mass–radius relationships, and, when available, constraints on eccentricity to compute a number we call the “habitability index for transiting exoplanets” that represents the relative probability that an exoplanet could support liquid surface water. We calculate it for Kepler objects of interest and find that planets that receive between 60% and 90% of the Earth’s incident radiation, assuming circular orbits, are most likely to be habitable. Finally, we make predictions for the upcoming TESS and James Webb Space Telescope missions.

Planet and satellite surfaces↗
NASA NTRS2020

OGLE-2017-BLG-0406: Spitzer Microlens Parallax Reveals Saturn-mass Planet Orbiting M-dwarf Host in the Inner Galactic Disk

We report the discovery and analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-0406, which was observed both from the ground and by the Spitzer satellite in a solar orbit. At high magnification, the anomaly in the light curve was densely observed by ground-based-survey and follow-up groups, and it was found to be explained by a planetary lens with a planet/host mass ratio of q = 7.0 x 10^-4 from the light-curve modeling. The ground-only and Spitzer-"only" data each provide very strong one-dimensional (1D) constraints on the 2D microlens parallax vector π(E). When combined, these yield a precise measurement of π(E) and of the masses of the host M(host) = 0.56 ± 0.07 Mꙩ and planet M(planet) = 0.41 ± 0.05 M(Jup). The system lies at a distance D(L) = 5.2 ± 0.5 kpc from the Sun toward the Galactic bulge, and the host is more likely to be a disk population star according to the kinematics of the lens. The projected separation of the planet from the host is a(┴) = 3.5 ± 0.3 au (i.e., just over twice the snow line). The Galactic-disk kinematics are established in part from a precise measurement of the source proper motion based on OGLE-IV data. By contrast, the Gaia proper-motion measurement of the source suffers from a catastrophic 10σ error.

Yuki Hirao↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2017-BLG-0406: Spitzer Microlens Parallax Reveals Saturn-mass Planet Orbiting M-dwarf Host in the Inner Galactic Disk

We report the discovery and analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-0406, which was observed both from the ground and by the Spitzer satellite in a solar orbit. At high magnification, the anomaly in the light curve was densely observed by ground-based-survey and follow-up groups, and it was found to be explained by a planetary lens with a planet/host mass ratio of q=7.0×10{sup −4} from the light-curve modeling. The ground-only and Spitzer-“only” data each provide very strong one-dimensional (1D) constraints on the 2D microlens parallax vector π{sub E}. When combined, these yield a precise measurement of π{sub E} and of the masses of the host M{sub host}=0.56±0.07 M{sub ⊙} and planet M {sub planet} = 0.41 ± 0.05 M {sub Jup}. The system lies at a distance D {sub L} = 5.2 ± 0.5 kpc from the Sun toward the Galactic bulge, and the host is more likely to be a disk population star according to the kinematics of the lens. The projected separation of the planet from the host is a{sub ⊥}=3.5±0.3 au (i.e., just over twice the snow line). The Galactic-disk kinematics are established in part from a precise measurement of the source proper motion based on OGLE-IV data. By contrast, the Gaia proper-motion measurement of the source suffers from a catastrophic 10σ error.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Starshade Rendezvous Probe

The Starshade Rendezvous Probe Mission (https://smd-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/science-red/s3fs-public/atoms/files/Starshade2.pdf ) [1] will be the first space-based, high-contrast imaging mission with the potential to detect and characterize Earth-like planets in the habitable zone (HZ) around sunlike stars while at the same time exploring entire planetary systems about our nearest neighbors. Over the last two decades, astronomers have discovered and cataloged thousands of planets around other stars. Nevertheless, we have yet to find a planetary system like our own or to characterize discovered small planets to determine if they are similar to Earth. The next step in exploration is to image full planetary systems, including their HZs, and to obtain planetary spectra with enough sensitivity to determine if a planet is Earth-like. A space-based direct imaging mission to ultimately find and characterize other Earth-like planets is a long-term priority for space astrophysics [2, 3].

Seager, Sara↗
NASA NTRS2003

Characterizing the Siple Coast Ice Stream System using Satellite Images, Improved Topography, and Integrated Aerogeophysical Measurements

A technique for improving elevation maps of the polar ice sheets has been developed using AVHRR images. The technique is based on 'photoclinometry' or 'shape from shading', a technique used in the past for mapping planetary surfaces where little elevation information was available. The fundamental idea behind photoclinometry is using the brightness of imaged areas to infer their surface slope in the sun-illuminated direction. Our version of the method relies on a calibration of the images based on an existing lower-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), and then using the images to improve the input DEM resolution to the scale of the image data. Most current DEMs covering the ice sheets are based on Radar altimetry data, and have an inherent resolution of 10 to 25 km at best - although the grid scale of the DEM is often finer. These DEMs are highly accurate (to less than 1 meter); but they report the mean elevation of a broad area, thus erasing smaller features of glaciological interest. AVHRR image data, when accurately geolocated and calibrated, provides surface slope measurements (based on the pixel brightness under known lighting conditions) every approximately 1.1 km. The limitations of the technique are noisiness in the image data, small variations in the albedo of the snow surface, and the integration technique used to create an elevation field from the image-derived slopes. Our study applied the technique to several ice sheet areas having some elevation data; Greenland, the Amery Ice Shelf, the Institute Ice Stream, and the Siple Coast. For the latter, the input data set was laser-altimetry data collected under NSF's SOAR Facility (Support Office for Aerogeophysical Research) over the onset area of the Siple Coast. Over the course of the grant, the technique was greatly improved and modified, significantly improving accuracy and reducing noise from the images. Several publications resulted from the work, and a follow-on proposal to NASA has been submitted to apply the same method to MODIS data using ICESat and other elevation input information. This follow-on grant will explore two applications that are facilitated by the improved surface morphology characterizations of the ice sheets: accumulation and temperature variations near small undulations in the ice.

Scambos, Ted↗
NASA NTRS1998

Theories of Giant Planet Formation

An overview of current theories of planetary formation, with emphasis on giant planets, is presented. The most detailed models are based upon observations of our own Solar System and of young stars and their environments. While these models predict that rocky planets should form around most single stars, the frequency of formation of gas giant planets is more difficult to predict theoretically. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth as do terrestrial planets, but they become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. Most models for extrasolar giant planets suggest that they formed as did Jupiter and Saturn (in nearly circular orbits, far enough from the star that ice could), and subsequently migrated to their current positions, although some models suggest in situ formation.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of full-scale spatiotemporal diagnostics of solid-density plasmas driven by an ultra-short relativistic laser pulse using an X-ray free-electron laser

Understanding the complex plasma dynamics in ultra-intense relativistic laser–solid interactions is of fundamental importance for applications of laser–plasma-based particle accelerators, the creation of high-energy-density matter, understanding planetary science, and laser-driven fusion energy. However, experimental efforts in this regime have been limited by the lack of accessibility of over-critical densities and the poor spatiotemporal resolution of conventional diagnostics. Over the last decade, the advent of femtosecond brilliant hard X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has opened new horizons to overcome these limitations. Here, for the first time, we present full-scale spatiotemporal measurements of solid-density plasma dynamics, including preplasma generation with tens of nanometer scale length driven by the leading edge of a relativistic laser pulse, ultrafast heating and ionization at the main pulse arrival, the laser-driven blast wave, and transient surface return current-induced compression dynamics up to hundreds of picoseconds after interaction. These observations are enabled by utilizing a novel combination of advanced X-ray diagnostics including small-angle X-ray scattering, resonant X-ray emission spectroscopy, and propagation-based X-ray phase-contrast imaging simultaneously at the European XFEL-HED beamline station.

Huang, Lingen [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendor↗
NASA NTRS1992

The SIMPSONS project: An integrated Mars transportation system

In response to the Request for Proposal (RFP) for an integrated transportation system network for an advanced Martian base, Frontier Transportation Systems (FTS) presents the results of the SIMPSONS project (Systems Integration for Mars Planetary Surface Operations Networks). The following topics are included: the project background, vehicle design, future work, conclusions, management status, and cost breakdown. The project focuses solely on the surface-to-surface transportation at an advanced Martian base.

Kaplan, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2017

Plausible Compositions of the Seven TRAPPIST-1 Planets Using Long-Term Dynamical Simulations

TRAPPIST-1 is a nearby ultra-cool dwarf that is host to a remarkable planetary system consisting of seven transiting planets. The orbital properties and radii of the planets have been well constrained, and recently, the masses of the inner six planets have been measured with additional ground- and space-based photometric observations. Large uncertainties in these mass measurements have prevented a robust analysis of the planetary compositions. Here, we perform many thousands of N-body dynamical simulations with planet properties perturbed from the observed values and identify those that are stable for millions of years. This allows us to identify self-consistent orbital solutions that can be used in future studies. From our range of dynamical masses, we find that most of the planets are consistent with an Earth-like composition, where TRAPPIST-1f is likely to have a volatile-rich envelope.

Quarles, B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Plausible Compositions of the Seven TRAPPIST-1 Planets Using Long-Term Dynamical Simulations

TRAPPIST-1 is a nearby ultra-cool dwarf that is host to a remarkable planetary system consisting of seven transiting planets. The orbital properties and radii of the planets have been well constrained, and recently, the masses of the inner six planets have been measured with additional ground- and space-based photometric observations. Large uncertainties in these mass measurements have prevented a robust analysis of the planetary compositions. Here, we perform many thousands of N-body dynamical simulations with planet properties perturbed from the observed values and identify those that are stable for millions of years. This allows us to identify self-consistent orbital solutions that can be used in future studies. From our range of dynamical masses, we find that most of the planets are consistent with an Earth-like composition, where TRAPPIST-1f is likely to have a volatile-rich envelope.

B. Quarles↗
NASA NTRS2017

Plausible Compositions of the Seven TRAPPIST-1 Planets Using Long-Term Dynamical Simulations

TRAPPIST-1 is a nearby ultra-cool dwarf that is host to a remarkable planetary system consisting of seven transiting planets. The orbital properties and radii of the planets have been well constrained, and recently, the masses of the inner six planets have been measured with additional ground- and space-based photometric observations. Large uncertainties in these mass measurements have prevented a robust analysis of the planetary compositions. Here, we perform many thousands of N-body dynamical simulations with planet properties perturbed from the observed values and identify those that are stable for millions of years. This allows us to identify self-consistent orbital solutions that can be used in future studies. From our range of dynamical masses, we find that most of the planets are consistent with an Earth-like composition, where TRAPPIST-1f is likely to have a volatile-rich envelope.

B. Quarles↗