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Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitative Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.

Lo, Yunnhon↗

FCC-ee: The Lepton Collider

Particle physics has arrived at an important moment of its history. The discovery of the Higgs boson, with a mass of 125 GeV, completes the matrix of particles and interactions that has constituted the “Standard Model” for several decades. This model is a consistent and predictive theory, which has so far proven successful at describing all phenomena accessible to collider experiments. On the other hand, several experimental facts do require the extension of the Standard Model and explanations are needed for observations such as the domination of matter over antimatter, the evidence for dark matter and the non-zero neutrino masses. Theoretical issues that need to be addressed include the hierarchy problem, the neutrality of the Universe, the stability of the Higgs boson mass upon quantum corrections and the strong CP problem. This report contains the description of a novel research infrastructure based on a highest-luminosity energy frontier electron-positron collider (FCC-ee) to address the open questions of modern physics. It will be a general precision instrument for the continued in-depth exploration of nature at the smallest scales, optimised to measure precisely the properties of the Higgs boson at the per-cent level, the Z and W bosons, the top quark and the Higgs coupling to the Z at the per-mil level. FCC-ee will provide unprecedented sensitivity to signs of new physics appearing either in the form of small deviations from the Standard Model or as rare decay processes. This collider will be implemented in stages, successively spanning the entire energy range from the Z pole over the WW threshold and H production peak to the t"t" ̅ threshold. Most of the infrastructure (e.g. underground structures, surface sites, electrical distribution, cooling & ventilation, RF systems) can be directly re-used for a subsequent highest-energy hadron collider (described in the FCC conceptual design report volume 3), serving the world-wide particle-physics community in a highly synergetic and cost-effective manner throughout the 21st century. The European Strategy for Particle Physics (ESPP) update 2013 stated “To stay at the forefront of particle physics, Europe needs to be in a position to propose an ambitious post-LHC accelerator project at CERN by the time of the next Strategy update”. The FCC study has implemented the ESPP recommendation by developing a long-term vision for an “accelerator project in a global context”. This document describes the detailed design and preparation of a construction project for a post-LHC circular lepton collider “in collaboration with national institutes, laboratories and universities worldwide”, and enhanced by a strong participation of industrial partners. Now, a coordinated preparation effort can be based on a core of an ever-growing consortium of already more than 135 institutes worldwide. The technology for constructing a high-energy, highest-luminosity circular lepton collider exists today. The FCC-ee concept comprises a power-saving twin-aperture magnet system, a continuous top-up injection scheme for stable operation and maximum integrated luminosity. Combined with an energy staging scheme, the FCC-ee represents the most efficient and most sustainable route for executing the research required to discover signs of new physics beyond the Standard Model. The step-wise energy increase of the FCC-ee does not require any additional civil engineering activities. Strategic R&D for FCC-ee aims at minimising construction cost and energy consumption, while maximising the socio-economic impact. It will mitigate residual technology-related risks and ensure that industry can benefit from an acceptable economic utility. Concerning the implementation, a preparatory phase of about eight years is both necessary and adequate to establish the project governance and organisation structures, building the international machine and experiment consortia, developing a territorial implementation plan in agreement with the host-states’ requirements, optimising the disposal of land and underground volumes and preparing the civil engineering project. Such a large-scale, international fundamental research infrastructure, tightly involving industrial partners and providing training at all education levels, will be a strong motor of economic and societal development in all participating nations. The FCC study has implemented a set of actions towards a coherent vision for the world-wide high-energy and particle physics community, providing a collaborative framework for topically complementary and geographically well-balanced contributions. This conceptual design report lays the foundation for a subsequent infrastructure preparatory and technical design phase.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Regulatory Technology Development Plan Sodium Fast Reactor. Mechanistic Source Term Development

Construction and operation of a nuclear power installation in the U.S. requires licensing by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A vital part of this licensing process and integrated safety assessment entails the analysis of a source term (or source terms) that represents the release of radionuclides during normal operation and accident sequences. Historically, nuclear plant source term analyses have utilized deterministic, bounding assessments of the radionuclides released to the environment. Significant advancements in technical capabilities and the knowledge state have enabled the development of more realistic analyses such that a mechanistic source term (MST) assessment is now expected to be a requirement of advanced reactor licensing. This report focuses on the state of development of an MST for a sodium fast reactor (SFR), with the intent of aiding in the process of MST definition by qualitatively identifying and characterizing the major sources and transport processes of radionuclides. Due to common design characteristics among current U.S. SFR vendor designs, a metal-fuel, pool-type SFR has been selected as the reference design for this work, with all phenomenological discussions geared toward this specific reactor configuration. This works also aims to identify the key gaps and uncertainties in the current knowledge state that must be addressed for SFR MST development. It is anticipated that this knowledge state assessment can enable the coordination of technology and analysis tool development discussions such that any knowledge gaps may be addressed. Sources of radionuclides considered in this report include releases originating both in-vessel and ex-vessel, including in-core fuel, primary sodium and cover gas cleanup systems, and spent fuel movement and handling. Transport phenomena affecting various release groups are identified and qualitatively discussed, including fuel pin and primary coolant retention, and behavior in the cover gas and containment. Radionuclides released from a primary sodium fire are also considered as potential sources. Any available experimental data and pertinent results relevant to the aforementioned phenomena are discussed, and operating incidents at domestically operated facilities are also examined. Considering the extensive range of phenomena affecting the release of radionuclides, the existing state of knowledge generally appears to be substantial, and may be sufficient in most areas. For core damage accidents, high retention rates should be expected within the fuel matrix and primary sodium coolant for all radionuclides other than the noble gases. These factors greatly reduce the magnitude of possible radionuclide release to the environment. Several possible gaps within the knowledgebase were identified during this effort. First, there are uncertainties with regard to radionuclide release from metal fuel in the molten state. Another knowledge gap appears in the available thermodynamic data regarding the behavior of lanthanides and actinides in liquid sodium. While not necessarily a phenomenological knowledge gap, a determination of the data requirements for MST development should be formally made prior to the expenditure of significant future research efforts. That is, if additional experimentation is performed in support of MST development, it is important to identify the proper quality assurance requirements for licensing

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Plan for Scaling Up Hydrogen Production with Nuclear Power Plants

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Flexible Plant Operations and Generation (FPOG) Pathway is developing options to help U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) better integrate with intermittent wind and solar capacity and the recent surge of natural gas power generation. Research is focusing on improving NPP flexibility through hybrid production of electricity and other products, such as hydrogen (H 2 ) and energy storage for the purpose of shifting power production to a later time. In the case of H 2 production, the clean electrical and thermal power from an NPP can be used to split water using electrolysis. This report outlines the opportunity for NPPs to participate in a first-of-akind (FOAK) commercial nuclear H 2 project intended to bring industry partners together to create regional clean H 2 hubs. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) will fund at least one hub up to $1.25 billion as federal cost share totally no less than 50% to execute a nuclear H 2 project. The report discusses the set of activities that are now underway or that are planned for completion by the FPOG Pathway to reduce the economic, technical, regulatory, and safety risks of these projects. DOE cross-program activities are being coordinated to ensure success in the timeframe allowed by the BIL. Figure ES-1 shows the approximate schedule of coordinated research and development (R&D) and pilot demonstration projects leading up to the first commercial nuclear H 2 production project. Execution of this plan requires DOE and industry collaboration. DOE research accomplishments are being provided to the electric utilities or industries looking to participate in the H 2 hub proposal and project execution process.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DSO+T: Integrated System Simulation (DSO+T Study: Volume 2)

This report summarizes an integrated co-simulation model used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to represent an electrical generation, delivery, and end-load systems for the purposes of assessing the viability and value proposition of transactive energy coordination of flexible assets versus a business-as-usual case. The integrated co-simulation model includes the bulk generation and transmission system, including the day-ahead and real-time scheduling and dispatch of thermal generators. Forty distribution system operators were modelled in detail, including tens of thousands of residential and commercial buildings and their flexible end-loads. These included HVAC systems, residential water heaters, electric vehicles, and stationary, behind-the-meter, batteries. Both wholesale market and end-load results for the business-as-usual case are presented and compared to actual ERCOT system data to assess the accuracy and representativeness of the resulting model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cumulative Effects Analysis for Wind Energy Development: Current Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities (IEA Wind White Paper)

The increasing global deployment of wind energy has given rise to concerns about potential adverse effects on certain wildlife species and habitats. The United States and European nations use environmental impact assessments (EIAs) to evaluate the environmental effects of wind energy and inform wind energy planning, siting, and operational processes. A key component of the EIA is the cumulative effects analysis/assessment (CEA). CEAs consider the effects of a proposed development in the context of past, present, and future developments, as well as other (non-wind) activities. However, practitioners worldwide have struggled to implement cost-effective and consistent processes for CEAs. Further, there is no widely accepted scientific methodology to assess cumulative effects. As wind energy deployment continues to expand, developing a consistent and scientifically based approach to CEAs may provide a more comparable across assessments and cost-effective means of reducing risk during siting, operations, and decommissioning/repowering, while minimizing regulatory hurdles. This technical report evaluates the current state of CEA practices, covering both land-based and offshore wind energy development. It focuses on impacts from the preconstruction, construction, and operational phases of the wind farm, which are the phases where most research currently exists. Emerging research addresses impacts from the perspective of life cycle assessments (LCAs), including the impacts of manufacturing and preconstruction (May et al. 2020). The technical report also summarizes CEA processes and guidelines, analysis approaches, and current challenges. Finally, it highlights opportunities for further research and coordination, and includes a geographically organized CEA information resource bank.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ISRU-Based Robotic Construction Technologies For Lunar And Martian Infrastructures

Economically viable and reliable building systems and tool sets are being sought, examined and tested for extraterrestrial infrastructure buildup. This project utilizes a unique architecture weaving the robotic building construction technology with designs for assisting rapid buildup of initial operational capability Lunar and Martian bases. The project intends to develop and test methodologies to construct certain crucial infrastructure elements in order to evaluate the merits, limitations and feasibility of adapting and using such technologies for extraterrestrial application. High priority infrastructure elements suggested by our NASA advisors to be considered include landing pads and aprons, roads, blast walls and shade walls, thermal and micrometeorite protection shields and dust-free platforms utilizing the well-known insitu resource utilization (ISRU) strategy. Current extraterrestrial settlement buildup philosophy holds that in order to minimize the materials needed to be flown in, at great transportation costs, strategies that maximize the use of locally available resources must be adopted. Tools and heavy equipment flown as cargo from Earth are proposed to build required infrastructure to support future missions and settlements on the Moon and Mars. Several unique systems including the Lunar Electric Rover, the unpressurized Chariot rover, the versatile light-weight crane and Tri-Athlete cargo transporter as well as the habitat module mockups and a new generation of spacesuits are undergoing coordinated tests at NASAs D-RATS. This project intends to draw up a detailed synergetic plan to utilize these maturing systems coupled with modern robotic fabrication technologies based primarily on 3D Printing, tailored for swift and reliable Lunar and Martian infrastructure development. This project also intends to increase astronaut safety, improve buildup performance, ameliorate dust interference and concerns, and reduce time-to-commission, all in an economic manner. The goal stated in our Phase I proposal was a high fidelity demonstration at D-RATS to be conducted at the conclusion of the Phase II study. In the course of the Phase I study, however, it became clear that such demonstration was neither possible (due to the maximum Phase II budget limitation and the cost of NASA assets and related overhead expenses to support such demonstrations), nor necessary (due to NASA's low TRL expectation of Phase II results). These important facts were revealed to us only after interacting with the NIAC administrators and meetings with potential future partners at JPL and KSC. Accordingly, it was decided by the team that in order to make best use of resources we should investigate novel directions in the adaptation of our fabrication technologies by using in-house laboratories and to produce truly useful technologies and data, and then proceed with high fidelity demonstration at a later opportunity when sufficient resources become available. Furthermore, we have recognized that in addition to our building scale 3D printing technology called Contour Crafting, variations of some of our other fabrication technologies under development are suitable for construction of infrastructure elements such as regolith based ceramic tiles and hence we have decided to include some related preliminary research in this Phase II proposal.

Extraterrestrial↗

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating Solar with the Distribution System

This report analyzes distribution-integration challenges, solutions, and research needs in the context of distributed generation from PV (DGPV) deployment to date and the much higher levels of deployment expected with achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot targets. Recent analyses have improved estimates of the DGPV hosting capacities of distribution systems. This report uses these results to statistically estimate the minimum DGPV hosting capacity for the contiguous United States using traditional inverters of approximately 170 GW without distribution system modifications. This hosting capacity roughly doubles if advanced inverters are used to manage local voltage and additional minor, low-cost changes could further increase these levels substantially. Key to achieving these deployment levels at minimum cost is siting DGPV based on local hosting capacities, suggesting opportunities for regulatory, incentive, and interconnection innovation. Already, pre-computed hosting capacity is beginning to expedite DGPV interconnection requests and installations in select regions; however, realizing SunShot-scale deployment will require further improvements to DGPV interconnection processes, standards and codes, and compensation mechanisms so they embrace the contributions of DGPV to system-wide operations. SunShot-scale DGPV deployment will also require unprecedented coordination of the distribution and transmission systems. This includes harnessing DGPV's ability to relieve congestion and reduce system losses by generating closer to loads; minimizing system operating costs and reserve deployments through improved DGPV visibility; developing communication and control architectures that incorporate DGPV into system operations; providing frequency response, transient stability, and synthesized inertia with DGPV in the event of large-scale system disturbances; and potentially managing reactive power requirements due to large-scale deployment of advanced inverter functions. Finally, additional local and system-level value could be provided by integrating DGPV with energy storage and 'virtual storage,' which exploits improved management of electric vehicle charging, building energy systems, and other large loads. Together, continued innovation across this rich distribution landscape can enable the very-high deployment levels envisioned by SunShot.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ISECG Mission Scenarios and Their Role in Informing Next Steps for Human Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy (GES): The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies* and released in May 2007. This GES Framework Document recognizes that preparing for human space exploration is a stepwise process, starting with basic knowledge and culminating in a sustained human presence in deep space. ISECG has developed several optional global exploration mission scenarios enabling the phased transition from human operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) to human missions beyond LEO leading ultimately to human missions to cis-lunar space, the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids, Mars and its environs. Mission scenarios provide the opportunity for judging various exploration approaches in a manner consistent with agreed international goals and strategies. Each ISECG notional mission scenario reflects a series of coordinated human and robotic exploration missions over a 25-year horizon. Mission scenarios are intended to provide insights into next steps for agency investments, following on the success of the ISS. They also provide a framework for advancing the definition of Design Reference Missions (DRMs) and the concepts for capabilities contained within. Each of the human missions contained in the scenarios has been characterized by a DRM which is a top level definition of mission sequence and the capabilities needed to execute that mission. While DRMs are generally destination focused, they will comprise capabilities which are reused or evolved from capabilities used at other destinations. In this way, an evolutionary approach to developing a robust set of capabilities to sustainably explore our solar system is defined. Agencies also recognize that jointly planning for our next steps, building on the accomplishments of ISS, is important to ensuring the robustness and sustainability of any human exploration plan. Developing a shared long-term vision is important, but agencies recognize this is an evolutionary process and requires consideration of many strategic factors. Strategic factors such as the implications of an emerging commercial space industry in LEO, the opportunity provided by extending ISS lifetime to at least 2020, and the importance of defining a plan which is sustainable in light of inevitable domestic policy shifts are timely for agency consideration.

Culbert, Christopher J.↗

96 Park Way Vicinity Property Remediation Challenges at the FUSRAP Maywood Superfund Site, Maywood, New Jersey - 19216

The Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) Maywood Superfund Site (FMSS), 'the Project,' was transferred to the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in 1997. Shortly thereafter, USACE initiated FUSRAP remediation efforts on 24 commercial and residential properties and, in addition, the Project team evaluated properties previously addressed at the FMSS. One of those properties was located at 96 Park Way in Rochelle Park, New Jersey. The property history included removal of contaminated soil in 1985 by the US Department of Energy (US DOE). Soil sampling performed after removal of contaminated soil indicated the cleanup met applicable guidelines in place at the time. A Five-Year Review of the FMSS conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) in 2009 found that 96 Park Way did not meet the current residential cleanup levels for the site and recommended additional study and remediation, if warranted. The current levels are established in the approved cleanup plan for the FMSS (known as the Record of Decision [ROD]) issued in 2003. Based on USEPA's recommendation, USACE carefully reviewed all available records for the property. The review considered the differences between the soil cleanup standards used in the 1980's and the 2003 ROD standards, which are slightly more restrictive for deeper soils. The USACE conducted detailed field studies at 96 Park Way in 2014-15 to address the USEPA findings. This work included gamma walkover surveys and soil sampling to depths of approximately 3.5 meters. The results identified three discrete areas at depth that did not meet the ROD residential soil cleanup standard: two areas bordering an adjacent highway (New Jersey Route 17) and one along railroad property adjacent to the site. To address these areas, soil removal actions were conducted in 2016-17. The principal challenge with construction, engineering, and community relations was the property housed two sensitive facilities: a long-term assisted care living facility and a short-term post-surgery rehabilitation center. The operations at these facilities could not be interrupted in any way during FUSRAP activities. The three FUSRAP-impacted areas were addressed and restored in coordination with the USEPA, property management, and local officials. Site restoration presented a particular challenge well after the remedial action was completed, as the property owner and the government disagreed on the level of restoration. Those negotiations are ongoing as of this writing. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Systems Approach to Lower Cost Missions: Following the Rideshare Paradigm

Small-satellite rideshare capabilities and opportunities for low-cost access to space have been evolving over the past 10 years. Small space launch vehicle technology is rapidly being developed and demonstrated, including the Minotaur series and the Space X Falcon, among others, along with the lower cost launch facilities at Alaska's Kodiak Launch Complex, NASA's Wallops Flight Facility, and the Reagan Test Site in the Pacific. Demonstrated capabilities for the launch of multiple payloads have increased (and continue to increase) significantly. This will allow more efficient and cost-effective use of the various launch opportunities, including utilizing the excess capacity of the emerging Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV)-based missions. The definition of standardized interfaces and processes, along with various user guides and payload implementation plans, has been developed and continues to be refined. Top-level agency policies for the support of low-cost access to space for small experimental payloads, such as the DoD policy structure on auxiliary payloads, have been defined and provide the basis for the continued refinement and implementation of these evolving technologies. Most importantly, the coordination and cooperative interfaces between the various stakeholders continues to evolve. The degree of this coordination and technical interchange is demonstrated by the wide stakeholder participation at the recent 2008 Small Payload Rideshare Workshop, held at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility. This annual workshop has been the major platform for coordination and technical interchange within the rideshare community and with the various sponsoring agencies. These developments have provided the foundation for a robust low-cost small payload rideshare capability. However, the continued evolution, sustainment, and utilization of these capabilities will require continued stakeholder recognition, support, and nourishing. Ongoing, coordinated effort, partnering, and support between stakeholders is essential to acquire the improved organizational processes and efficiencies required to meet the needs of the growing small payload community for low-cost access to space. Further, a mix of capabilities developed within the space community for Operationally Responsive Space, an international committee investigating space systems cross-compatibility, and an industry-based organization seeking small satellite "standardization" all work toward a new paradigm: sharing or leveraging resources amongst multiple users. The challenge: where are those users, and what is the best way to leverage them? What is leveraged-mass, power, cost-sharing? And how does one sort through these options? What policies may prevent the use of some options? Who are the "other users" that might share or leverage capabilities? This paper presents a systematic look at both the users and the launch options, and suggests a way forward.

access to space↗

Application of Human-Autonomy Teaming to an Advanced Ground Station for Reduced Crew Operations

Within human factors there is burgeoning interest in the "human-autonomy teaming" (HAT) concept as a way to address the challenges of interacting with complex, increasingly autonomous systems. The HAT concept comes out of an aspiration to interact with increasingly autonomous systems as a team member, rather than simply use automation as a tool. The authors, and others, have proposed core tenets for HAT that include bi-directional communication, automation and system transparency, and advanced coordination between human and automated teammates via predefined, dynamic task sequences known as "plays." It is believed that, with proper implementation, HAT should foster appropriate teamwork, thus increasing trust and reliance on the system, which in turn will reduce workload, increase situation awareness, and improve performance. To this end, HAT has been demonstrated and/or studied in multiple applications including search and rescue operations, healthcare and medicine, autonomous vehicles, photography, and aviation. The current paper presents one such effort to apply HAT. It details the design of a HAT agent, developed by Human Automation Teaming Solutions, Inc., to facilitate teamwork between the automation and the human operator of an advanced ground dispatch station. This dispatch station was developed to support a NASA project investigating a concept called Reduced Crew Operations (RCO); consequently, we have named the agent R-HATS. Part of the RCO concept involves a ground operator providing enhanced support to a large number of aircraft with a single pilot on the flight deck. When assisted by R-HATS, operators can monitor and support or manage a large number of aircraft and use plays to respond in real-time to complicated, workload-intensive events (e.g., an airport closure). A play is a plan that encapsulates goals, tasks, and a task allocation strategy appropriate for a particular situation. In the current implementation, when a play is initiated by a user, R-HATS determines what tasks need to be completed and has the ability to autonomously execute them (e.g., determining diversion options and uplinking new routes to aircraft) when it is safe and appropriate. R-HATS has been designed to both support end users and researchers in RCO and HAT. Additionally, R-HATS and its underlying architecture were developed with generalizability in mind as a modular software applicable outside of RCO/aviation domains. This paper will also discuss future further development and testing of RHATS.

automation↗

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission System

This report examines how the bulk power system may need to evolve to accommodate the increased photovoltaic (PV) penetration resulting from achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot cost targets. The variable and uncertain nature of PV-generated electricity presents grid-integration challenges. For example, the changing net load associated with high midday PV generation and low electricity demand can create 'overgeneration' that requires curtailment of PV output and reduces PV's value and cost-competitiveness. Accommodating the changes in net load resulting from increased variable generation requires enhancements to a power system's 'flexibility,' or ability to balance supply and demand over multiple time scales through options including changes in system operation, flexible generation, reserves from solar, demand response, energy storage, and enhanced transmission and regional coordination. For utility-scale PV with a baseline SunShot levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh, increasing the annual energy demand met by solar energy from 10% to 20% would increase the marginal LCOE of PV from 6 cents/kWh to almost 11 cents/kWh in a California grid system with limited flexibility. However, increasing system flexibility could minimize solar curtailment and keep PV cost-competitive at penetrations at least as high as 25%. In the longer term, energy storage technologies--such as concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage--could facilitate the cost-effective integration of even higher PV penetration. Efficient deployment of the grid-flexibility options needed to maintain solar's value will require various innovations, from the development of communication, control, and energy storage technologies to the implementation of new market rules and operating procedures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Synthesis Study on Transitions in Signal Infrastructure and Control Algorithms for Connected and Automated Transportation

Documenting existing state of practice is an initial step in developing future control infrastructure to be co-deployed for heterogeneous mix of connected and automated vehicles with human drivers while leveraging benefits to safety, congestion, and energy. With advances in information technology and extensive deployment of connected and automated vehicle technology anticipated over the coming decades, cities globally are making efforts to plan and prepare for these transitions. CAVs not only offer opportunities to improve transportation systems through enhanced safety and efficient operations of vehicles. There are also significant needs in terms of exploring how best to leverage vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology, vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technology and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technology. Both Connected Vehicle (CV) and Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) paradigms feature bi-directional connectivity and share similar applications in terms of signal control algorithm and infrastructure implementation. The discussion in our synthesis study assumes the CAV/CV context where connectivity exists with or without automated vehicles. Our synthesis study explores the current state of signal control algorithms and infrastructure, reports the completed and newly proposed CV/CAV deployment studies regarding signal control schemes, reviews the deployment costs for CAV/AV signal infrastructure, and concludes with a discussion on the opportunities such as detector free signal control schemes and dynamic performance management for intersections, and challenges such as dependency on market adaptation and the need to build a fault-tolerant signal system deployment in a CAV/CV environment. The study will serve as an initial critical assessment of existing signal control infrastructure (devices, control instruments, and firmware) and control schemes (actuated, adaptive, and coordinated-green wave). Also, the report will help to identify the future needs for the signal infrastructure to act as the nervous system for urban transportation networks, providing not only signaling, but also observability, surveillance, and measurement capacity. The discussion of the opportunities space includes network optimization and control theory perspectives, and the current states of observability for key system parameters (what can be detected, how frequently can it be reported) as well as controllability of dynamic parameters (this includes adjusting not only the signal phase and timing, but also the ability to alter vehicle trajectories through information or direct control). The perspective of observability and controllability of the dynamic systems provides an appropriate lens to discuss future directions as CAV/CV become more prevalent in the future.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Interaction Between Strategic and Local Traffic Flow Controls

The loosely coordinated sets of traffic flow management initiatives that are operationally implemented at the national- and local-levels have the potential to under, over, and inconsistently control flights. This study is designed to explore these interactions through fast-time simulations with an emphasis on identifying inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays. Two operationally derived scenarios were considered in which flights arriving into the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport were first controlled at the national-level, either with a Ground Delay Program or a playbook reroute. These flights were subsequently controlled at the local level. The Traffic Management Advisor assigned them arrival scheduling delays. For the Ground Delay Program scenarios, between 51% and 53% of all arrivals experience both pre-departure delays from the Ground Delay Program and arrival scheduling delays from the Traffic Management Advisor. Of the subset of flights that received multiple delays, between 5.7% and 6.4% of the internal departures were first assigned a pre-departure delay by the Ground Delay Program, followed by a second pre-departure delay as a result of the arrival scheduling. For the playbook reroute scenario, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport arrivals were first assigned pre-departure reroutes based on the MW_2_DALLAS playbook plan, and were subsequently assigned arrival scheduling delays by the Traffic Management Advisor. Since the airport was operating well below capacity when the playbook reroute was in effect, only 7% of the arrivals were observed to receive both rerouting and arrival scheduling delays. Findings from these initial experiments confirm field observations that Ground Delay Programs operated in conjunction with arrival scheduling can result in inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays.

Grabbe, Son↗

Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long‐term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in 2004 of evaluating the tolerance limits and safe operating bands called for in the Bioastronautics Strategy. Over the next several years, the concept of the "operating bands" were turned into Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS), developed by the technical resources of the SLSD at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). These standards were developed and reviewed at the SLSD and then presented to the OCHMO for acceptance. The first set of standards was published in 2007 as the NASA‐STD‐3001, Volume 1, Crew Health that elaborated standards for several physiological areas such as cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, radiation exposure and nutrition. Volume 2, Human Factors, Habitability and Human Health was published in 2011, along with development guidance in the Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH). Taken together, the SFHSS Volumes 1 and 2, and the HIDH replaced the NASA‐STD‐3000 with new standards and revisions of the older document. Three other changes were also taking place that facilitated the development of the human system risk management approach. In 2005, the life sciences research and development portfolio underwent a comprehensive review through the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) that resulted in the reformulation of the Bioastronautics Program into Human Research Program (HRP) that was focused on appropriate mitigation results for high priority human health risks. The baseline HRP budget was established in August 2005. In addition, the OCHMO formulated the Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) in 2006 that established the position of the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) at the NASA JSC along with other key technical disciplines, and the OCHMO became the responsible office for the SFHSS as noted above. The final change was the establishment in 2008 of the Human System Risk Board (HSRB), chaired by the CMO with representation from the HRP, SLSD management and technical experts. The HSRB then began to review all human system risks, established a comprehensive risk management and configuration management plan and data sharing policy. These major developments of standards, the HRP, the HMTA and a forum for review of human system risks (HSRB) facilitated the integration of human research, medical operations, systems engineering and many other disciplines in the comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB began a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30 where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit 6 and 12 months, deep space sortie for 30 days and 1 year, a one year lunar mission, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence base for that risk, the available risk mitigations, traceability to the SFHSS and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the HRP, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets. These risk assessments were completed for 6 DRMs in December of 2014 and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB will review each risk at least annually and especially when new information is available that must be considered for effective risk mitigation. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

Davis, Jeffrey↗

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Journey to Developing a Concept of Operations

Starting in 2017, NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element began a systems engineering transition from traditional, document-centric development to model-centric development when defining its foundation medical systems. These foundation medical systems define a Concept of Operations (ConOps) and identify the generic requirements for a medical system based on assumptions about a generic crew and mission environments and guidance from NASA standards (e.g., Medical “Levels of Care”). By making the transition, ExMC intends to improve communication among stakeholders about foundation medical system requirements and content. In addition, this transition will enable ExMC to lower both development and crew treatment risks for future, mission-specific medical systems. ExMC followed a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) paradigm when developing the foundation medical systems. A model-based approach provides several advantages over a traditional, document-centric approach. First, when Systems Engineers (SE) develop diagrams in a model using a standard modeling language, they produce information dense pictures that facilitate understanding much more efficiently with less room for misinterpretation than text. Second, due to the evolving nature of projects, documentation becomes out of date the minute it is published. This can result in people making decisions based on information that is no longer current, especially if they are referencing a locally-stored copy of a document. A model, on the other hand, is always up to date with the latest approved changes and information. It serves as a single point of truth. Third, a model-centric approach centralizes all important information in one place. Rather than having to flip through separate ConOps documents, design specifications, requirements specifications, and the like to coordinate information, a model captures the content in one, integrated spot. This integration makes tracing information from end-to-end easier with greater reliability. The ExMC Systems Engineering Lifecycle follows a well-defined process. ExMC Systems Engineers perform all major steps of the process, regardless of the development methodology. One of the first steps in the process is developing the ConOps that describes the operation of the system from the point of view of the users. It includes a list of the users and their needs, the goals of the medical system, key assumptions about the system, and definitions of the medical system’s operational environments. For this development effort, ExMC chose to replace the traditional text-based ConOps document with a model. While the decision to change the development workflow was not difficult, implementing the structural and organizational workflows were. It required showing ExMC’s users, most of whom are not Systems Engineers, how the information they require would be presented in the model and to gain their acceptance of this approach. This paper documents key lessons learned during the ConOps transformation by focusing on how the model represents information, the agile workflow used by SEs when developing the model and how it integrates into a project plan, how leadership influenced key users to accept the transformation, and how the users interact with the model information.

Jeffrey Robert Cohen↗

Airborne Sunphotometer Measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth and Water Vapor in ACE-Asia and Their Comparisons to Correlative Measurements

In the Spring 2001 phase of the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia), the 6-channel NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) operated on 15 of the 19 research flights of the NCAR C-130, while its 14-channel counterpart (AATS-14) flew successfully on all 19 research flights of the CIRPAS Twin Otter. ACE-Asia studied aerosol outflow from the Asian continent to the Pacific basin. It was designed to integrate suborbital and satellite measurements and models to reduce the uncertainty in calculations of the climate forcing due to aerosols. AATS-6 and AATS-14 measured solar beam transmission at six and 14 wavelengths (380-1021 and 354-1558 nm, respectively), yielding aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra and columnar water vapor (CWV). Vertical differentiation in profiles yielded aerosol extinction spectra and water vapor concentration. In this paper, we plan to present examples of the following, preliminary findings that are based in part on our airborne sunphotometer measurements: (1) The wavelength dependence of sunphotometer-derived AOD and extinction indicates that supermicron dust was often a major component of the aerosol, frequently extending to high altitudes. The percentage of full-column AOD (525 nm) that Jay above 3 km was typically 34+/-13%. In contrast, the analogous percentage of columnar water vapor was only 10+/-4%; (2) Initial comparison studies between AOD data obtained by AATS-6 and AATS-14 during coordinated low-level flight legs show agreement well within the instruments' error bars; (3) Aerosol extinction has been derived from airborne in situ measurements of scattering (nephelometers) and absorption (particle soot/ absorption photometer, PSAP) or calculated from particle size distribution measurements (mobility analyzers and aerodynamic particle sizers). Comparison with corresponding extinction values derived from the Ames airborne sunphotometer measurements shows good agreement for the vertical distribution of aerosol layers. However, the level of agreement in absolute magnitude of the derived aerosol extinction/optical depth varied among the aerosol layers sampled; (4) Initial comparisons of sunphotometer and satellite-derived AOD using SeaWiFS, MISR and AVHRR show promising results. We also plan to include comparisons with MODIS and TOMS: (5) Initial comparisons of sunphotometer-derived AOD and aerosol extinction profiles with lidars in Tokyo and on a ship show reasonable agreement.

Schmid, B.↗