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NASA NTRS2013

Parachute Models Used in the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Simulation

An end-to-end simulation of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry, descent, and landing (EDL) sequence was created at the NASA Langley Research Center using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2). This simulation is capable of providing numerous MSL system and flight software responses, including Monte Carlo-derived statistics of these responses. The MSL POST2 simulation includes models of EDL system elements, including those related to the parachute system. Among these there are models for the parachute geometry, mass properties, deployment, inflation, opening force, area oscillations, aerodynamic coefficients, apparent mass, interaction with the main landing engines, and off-loading. These models were kept as simple as possible, considering the overall objectives of the simulation. The main purpose of this paper is to describe these parachute system models to the extent necessary to understand how they work and some of their limitations. A list of lessons learned during the development of the models and simulation is provided. Future improvements to the parachute system models are proposed.

Cruz, Juan R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Stochastic Simulation Tool for Aerospace Structural Analysis

Stochastic simulation refers to incorporating the effects of design tolerances and uncertainties into the design analysis model and then determining their influence on the design. A high-level evaluation of one such stochastic simulation tool, the MSC.Robust Design tool by MSC.Software Corporation, has been conducted. This stochastic simulation tool provides structural analysts with a tool to interrogate their structural design based on their mathematical description of the design problem using finite element analysis methods. This tool leverages the analyst's prior investment in finite element model development of a particular design. The original finite element model is treated as the baseline structural analysis model for the stochastic simulations that are to be performed. A Monte Carlo approach is used by MSC.Robust Design to determine the effects of scatter in design input variables on response output parameters. The tool was not designed to provide a probabilistic assessment, but to assist engineers in understanding cause and effect. It is driven by a graphical-user interface and retains the engineer-in-the-loop strategy for design evaluation and improvement. The application problem for the evaluation is chosen to be a two-dimensional shell finite element model of a Space Shuttle wing leading-edge panel under re-entry aerodynamic loading. MSC.Robust Design adds value to the analysis effort by rapidly being able to identify design input variables whose variability causes the most influence in response output parameters.

Knight, Norman F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Thipphavong, David↗

NASA NTRS1973

Space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. Volume 2: SRB water impact Monte Carlo computer program, user's manual

The HD 220 program was created as part of the space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. The model was generated to investigate the damage to SRB components under water impact loads. The random nature of environmental parameters, such as ocean waves and wind conditions, necessitates estimation of the relative frequency of occurrence for these parameters. The nondeterministic nature of component strengths also lends itself to probabilistic simulation. The Monte Carlo technique allows the simultaneous perturbation of multiple independent parameters and provides outputs describing the probability distribution functions of the dependent parameters. This allows the user to determine the required statistics for each output parameter.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Integrating Chlorophyll fapar and Nadir Photochemical Reflectance Index from EO-1/Hyperion to Predict Cornfield Daily Gross Primary Production

The concept of light use efficiency (Epsilon) and the concept of fraction of photosynthetically active ration (PAR) absorbed for vegetation photosynthesis (PSN), i.e., fAPAR (sub PSN), have been widely utilized to estimate vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP). It has been demonstrated that the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) is empirically related to ε. An experimental US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cornfield in Maryland was selected as our study field. We explored the potential of integrating fAPAR(sub chl) (defined as the fraction of PAR absorbed by chlorophyll) and nadir PRI (PRI(sub nadir)) to predict cornfield daily GPP. We acquired nadir or near-nadir EO-1/Hyperion satellite images that covered the cornfield and took nadir in-situ field spectral measurements. Those data were used to derive the PRI(sub nadir) and fAPAR (sub chl). The fAPAR (sub chl) is retrieved with the advanced radiative transfer model PROSAIL2 and the Metropolis approach, a type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation procedure. We define chlorophyll light use efficiency Epsilon (sub chl) as the ratio of vegetation GPP as measured by eddy covariance techniques to PAR absorbed by chlorophyll (Epsilon(sub chl) = GPP/APAR (sub chl). Daily Epsilon (sub chl) retrieved with the EO-1 Hyperion images was regressed with a linear equation of PRI (sub nadir) Epsilon (sub chl) = Alpha × PRI (sub nadir) + Beta). The satellite Epsilon(sub chl- PRI (sub nadir) linear relationship for the cornfield was implemented to develop an integrated daily GPP model [GPP = (Alpha × PRI(sub nadir) + Beta) × fAPAR (sub chl) × PAR], which was evaluated with fAPAR (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir) retrieved from field measurements. Daily GPP estimated with this fAPAR (sub chl-) PRI (nadir) integration model was strongly correlated with the observed tower in-situ daily GPP (R(sup 2) = 0.93); with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.71 g C mol−(sup -1) PPFD and coefficient of variation (CV) of 16.57%. Both seasonal Epsilon (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir) were strongly correlated with fAPAR (sub chl ) retrieved from field measurements, which indicates that chlorophyll content strongly affects seasonal epsilon (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir). We demonstrate the potential capacity to monitor GPP with space-based visible through shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers such as NASA's soon to be decommissioned EO- 1/Hyperion and the future Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI).

HyspIRI↗

NASA NTRS2001

Extrapolation of the dna fragment-size distribution after high-dose irradiation to predict effects at low doses

The patterns of DSBs induced in the genome are different for sparsely and densely ionizing radiations: In the former case, the patterns are well described by a random-breakage model; in the latter, a more sophisticated tool is needed. We used a Monte Carlo algorithm with a random-walk geometry of chromatin, and a track structure defined by the radial distribution of energy deposition from an incident ion, to fit the PFGE data for fragment-size distribution after high-dose irradiation. These fits determined the unknown parameters of the model, enabling the extrapolation of data for high-dose irradiation to the low doses that are relevant for NASA space radiation research. The randomly-located-clusters formalism was used to speed the simulations. It was shown that only one adjustable parameter, Q, the track efficiency parameter, was necessary to predict DNA fragment sizes for wide ranges of doses. This parameter was determined for a variety of radiations and LETs and was used to predict the DSB patterns at the HPRT locus of the human X chromosome after low-dose irradiation. It was found that high-LET radiation would be more likely than low-LET radiation to induce additional DSBs within the HPRT gene if this gene already contained one DSB.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2005

Aerocapture Performance Analysis of A Venus Exploration Mission

A performance analysis of a Discovery Class Venus Exploration Mission in which aerocapture is used to capture a spacecraft into a 300km polar orbit for a two year science mission has been conducted to quantify its performance. A preliminary performance assessment determined that a high heritage 70 sphere-cone rigid aeroshell with a 0.25 lift to drag ratio has adequate control authority to provide an entry flight path angle corridor large enough for the mission s aerocapture maneuver. A 114 kilograms per square meter ballistic coefficient reference vehicle was developed from the science requirements and the preliminary assessment s heating indicators and deceleration loads. Performance analyses were conducted for the reference vehicle and for sensitivity studies on vehicle ballistic coefficient and maximum bank rate. The performance analyses used a high fidelity flight simulation within a Monte Carlo executive to define the aerocapture heating environment and deceleration loads and to determine mission success statistics. The simulation utilized the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) that was modified to include Venus specific atmospheric and planet models, aerodynamic characteristics, and interplanetary trajectory models. In addition to Venus specific models, an autonomous guidance system, HYPAS, and a pseudo flight controller were incorporated in the simulation. The Monte Carlo analyses incorporated a reference set of approach trajectory delivery errors, aerodynamic uncertainties, and atmospheric density variations. The reference performance analysis determined the reference vehicle achieves 100% successful capture and has a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit with a 90 meters per second delta V budget for post aerocapture orbital adjustments. A ballistic coefficient trade study conducted with reference uncertainties determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture with a ballistic coefficient of 228 kilograms per square meter and that the increased ballistic coefficient increases post aerocapture V budget to 134 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit. A trade study on vehicle bank rate determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture when the maximum bank rate is decreased from 30 deg/s to 20 deg/s. The decreased bank rate increases post aerocapture delta V budget to 102 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit.

Starr, Brett R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Parallel implementation of a particle simulation for modeling rarefied gas dynamic flow

When the conditions of flow are rarefied and hypersonic, a more suitable alternative to the use of the Navier-Stokes equations for developing a numerical solution is the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC), a method of simulation which employs a large number of particles in modeling a rarefied gas. The performance of a parallel DSMC code developed for the Intel iPSC/860 Touchstone Gamma prototype computer is studied and the scaleup is found to be very nearly over the range of 16-128 processors.

Fallavollita, M. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Neutral cometary atmospheres. I - An average random walk model for photodissociation in comets

A method for constructing physically realistic photochemical models, taking into account the isotropic ejection of dissociated molecular fragments as well as radiation pressure acceleration, has been developed using Monte Carlo techniques. The effect of the isotropic ejection, as opposed to the radial motion arbitrarily assumed in Haser's model, is adequately described by a simple average random walk model. It is shown that measured radial (Haser) scale lengths are in fact only lower limits to a range of possible true scale lengths for a given brightness profile, which explains the current discrepancies between observed scale lengths and those predicted by photochemistry.

Combi, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Algebraic, geometric, and stochastic aspects of genetic operators

Genetic algorithms for function optimization employ genetic operators patterned after those observed in search strategies employed in natural adaptation. Two of these operators, crossover and inversion, are interpreted in terms of their algebraic and geometric properties. Stochastic models of the operators are developed which are employed in Monte Carlo simulations of their behavior.

Foo, N. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Methodology for the systems engineering process. Volume 3: Operational availability

A detailed description and explanation of the operational availability parameter is presented. The fundamental mathematical basis for operational availability is developed, and its relationship to a system's overall performance effectiveness is illustrated within the context of identifying specific availability requirements. Thus, in attempting to provide a general methodology for treating both hypothetical and existing availability requirements, the concept of an availability state, in conjunction with the more conventional probability-time capability, is investigated. In this respect, emphasis is focused upon a balanced analytical and pragmatic treatment of operational availability within the system design process. For example, several applications of operational availability to typical aerospace systems are presented, encompassing the techniques of Monte Carlo simulation, system performance availability trade-off studies, analytical modeling of specific scenarios, as well as the determination of launch-on-time probabilities. Finally, an extensive bibliography is provided to indicate further levels of depth and detail of the operational availability parameter.

Nelson, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Transport of energetic electrons in a fully ionized hydrogen plasma

A Monte Carlo method for calculating energetic electron transport in a plasma is presented. The energy loss and angular deflection due to Coulomb collisions as a function of travel distance and energy are derived for energetic electrons in a fully ionized plasma with a uniform magnetic field. Formulas which include the effect of nonuniform B fields on the angular deflection are derived. The Monte Carlo method is applied to the thick-target beam model in which the energetic electrons are injected vertically downward.

Bai, T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Analysis of equi-intensity curves and NU distribution of EAS

The distribution of the number of muons in extensive air showers (EAS) and the equi-intensity curves of EAS are analyzed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation of various cosmic ray composition and the interaction models. Problems in the two best combined models are discussed.

Tanahashi, G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

DSMC calculations for the delta wing

Results are reported from three-dimensional direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) computations, using a variable-hard-sphere molecular model, of hypersonic flow on a delta wing. The body-fitted grid is made up of deformed hexahedral cells divided into six tetrahedral subcells with well defined triangular faces; the simulation is carried out for 9000 time steps using 150,000 molecules. The uniform freestream conditions include M = 20.2, T = 13.32 K, rho = 0.00001729 kg/cu m, and T(wall) = 620 K, corresponding to lambda = 0.00153 m and Re = 14,000. The results are presented in graphs and briefly discussed. It is found that, as the flow expands supersonically around the leading edge, an attached leeside flow develops around the wing, and the near-surface density distribution has a maximum downstream from the stagnation point. Coefficients calculated include C(H) = 0.067, C(DP) = 0.178, C(DF) = 0.110, C(L) = 0.714, and C(D) = 1.089. The calculations required 56 h of CPU time on the NASA Langley Voyager CRAY-2 supercomputer.

Celenligil, M. Cevdet↗

NASA NTRS1992

Theoretical studies of the outer envelopes of young stellar objects

With the Monte Carlo code developed by Whitney and Hartmann, a series of models was computed of scattering in disks around young stellar objects. The code calculates scattering by dust, including polarization, in arbitrary geometries. By computing model images, it was found that disk, by themselves, around young stellar objects would be very difficult to detect with present day imaging techniques. In comparing these images to observations of young stellar objects which show diffuse structure, little resemblance was found. A flared disk system will only give high polarization when viewed edge-on, and the position angle is always oriented perpendicular to the disk plane. This suggests that an envelope, perhaps the remnant infalling envelope, must be present to scatter more stellar light than a disk can, and obscure the star at many inclinations. A grid was computed of models of scattering in a disk+envelope system. Evidence is presented that the wind of the pre-main sequence object FU Orionis arises from the surface of the luminous prostellar accretion disk. A disk wind model calculated assuming radiative equilibrium explains the differential behavior of the observed asymmetrical absorption line profiles. The model predicts that strong lines should be asymmetric and blueshifted, while weak lines should be symmetric and doubled peaked due to disk rotation, in agreement with observations.

Hartmann, Lee↗

NASA NTRS1992

Atomic oxygen in the Martian thermosphere

Modern models of thermospheric composition and temperature and of excitation and radiative transfer processes are used to simulate the O I 130-nm emission from Mars measured by the Mariner 9 ultraviolet spectrometer. This paper uses the Mars thermospheric general circulation model calculations (MTGCM) of Bougher et al. (1988) and the Monte Carlo partial frequency redistribution multiple scattering code of Meier and Lee (1982). It is found that the decline in atomic oxygen through the daylight hours predicted by the MTGCM cannot be reconciled with the excess afternoon brightness seen in the data. Oxygen concentrations inferred from the data show a positive gradient through the day, in agreement with the original analysis by Strickland et al. (1973). In addition, the data suggest that the oxygen abundance increases toward high southerly latitudes, in contrast with the MTGCM prediction of high values in the Northern Hemisphere. It appears that solar forcing alone cannot account for the observed characteristics of the Martian thermosphere and that wave and tidal effects may profoundly affect the structure, winds, and composition.

Stewart, A. I. F.↗