Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47

Prediction of Chemical Vapor Deposition Rates on Monofilaments and Its Implications for Fiber Properties

Deposition rates are predicted in a cylindrical upflow reactor designed for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on monofilaments. Deposition of silicon from silane in a hydrogen carrier gas is chosen as a relevant example. The effects of gas and surface chemistry are studied in a two-dimensional axisymmetric flow field for this chemically well-studied system. Model predictions are compared to experimental CVD rate measurements. The differences in some physical and chemical phenomena between such small diameter (about 150 microns) fiber substrates and other typical CVD substrates are highlighted. The influence of the Soret mass transport mechanism is determined to be extraordinarily significant. The difficulties associated with the accurate measurement and control of the fiber temperature are discussed. Model prediction sensitivities are investigated with respect to fiber temperatures, fiber radii, Soret transport, and chemical kinetic parameters. The implications of the predicted instantaneous rates are discussed relative to the desired fiber properties for both the batch and the continuous processes.

Gokoglu, S. A.↗

A continuum model of continental deformation above subduction zones - Application to the Andes and the Aegean

A continuum model of continental deformation above subduction zones was developed that combines the viscous sheet and the corner flow models; the continental lithosphere is described by a two-dimensional sheet model that considers basal drag resulting from the viscous asthenosphere flow underneath, and a corner flow model with a deforming overlying plate and a rigid subducting plate is used to calculate the shear traction that acts on the base of the lithosphere above a subduction zone. The continuum model is applied to the Andes and the Aegean deformations, which represent, respectively, compressional and extensional tectonic environments above subduction zones. The models predict that, in a compressional environment, a broad region of uplifted topography will tend to develop above a more steeply dippping slab, rather than above a shallower slab, in agreement with observations in the various segments of the central Andes. For an extensional environment, the model predicts that a zone of compression can develop near the trench, and that extensional strain rate can increase with distance from the trench, as is observed in the Aegean.

Wdowinski, Shimon↗

A comparison of Image Quality Models and Metrics Predicting Object Detection

Many models and metrics for image quality predict image discriminability, the visibility of the difference between a pair of images. Some image quality applications, such as the quality of imaging radar displays, are concerned with object detection and recognition. Object detection involves looking for one of a large set of object sub-images in a large set of background images and has been approached from this general point of view. We find that discrimination models and metrics can predict the relative detectability of objects in different images, suggesting that these simpler models may be useful in some object detection and recognition applications. Here we compare three alternative measures of image discrimination, a multiple frequency channel model, a single filter model, and RMS error.

Rohaly, Ann Marie↗

Ground cloud effluent measurements during the May 30, 1974, Titan 3 launch at the Air Force eastern test range

Surface-level exhaust effluent measurements of HCl, CO, and particulates, ground-cloud behavior, and some comparisons with model predictions for the launch of a Titan 3 rocket are presented along with a limited amount of airborne sampling measurements of other cloud species (O3, NO, NOX). Values above background levels for these effluents were obtained at 20 of the 30 instrument sites; these values were lower than model predictions and did not exceed public health standards. Cloud rise rate, stabilization altitude, and volume are compared with results from previous launches.

Bendura, R. J.↗

Validation of PICA Ablation and Thermal-Response Model at Low Heat Flux

Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) was the forebody heatshield material on the Stardust sample-return capsule and is also a primary candidate material for the Mars Science Lander (MSL), the Orion Crew Module, and the SpaceX Dragon vehicle. As part of the heatshield qualification for Orion, physical and thermal properties of virgin and charred PICA were measured, and an ablation and thermal response model was developed. We validated the model by comparing it with recession and temperature data from stagnation arcjet tests conducted over a wide range of stagnation heat flux of 107 to 1102 W/sq cm. The effect of orthotropic thermal conductivity was evident in the thermal response of the arcjet models. In general, model predictions compared well with the data; however, the uncertainty of the recession prediction was greatest for heat fluxes below 200 W/sq cm. More recent MSL testing focused on the low heat flux regime of 45 to 250 W/sq cm. The new results confirm the recession uncertainty, especially for pressures below 6 kPa. In this work we focus on improving the model predictions for MSL and Orion tests below 250 W/sq cm.

Milos, Frank S.↗

Potential New Lidar Observations for Cloud Studies

The response of clouds to global warming represents a major uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. These uncertainties have been tracked to shallow marine clouds in the tropics and subtropics. CALIOP observations have already been used extensively to evaluate model predictions of shallow cloud fraction and top height (Leahy et al. 2013; Nam et al 2012). Tools are needed to probe the lowest levels of the troposphere. The large footprint of satellite lidars gives large multiple scattering from clouds which presents new possibilities for cloud retrievals to constrain model predictions.

Winker, Dave↗

The development of a model for predicting passenger acceptance of short-haul air transportation systems

Meaningful criteria and methodology for assessing, particularly in the area of ride quality, the potential acceptability to the traveling public of present and future transportation systems were investigated. Ride quality was found to be one of the important variables affecting the decision of users of air transportation, and to be influenced by several environmental factors, especially motion, noise, pressure, temperature, and seating. Models were developed to quantify the relationship of subjective comfort to all of these parameters and then were exercised for a variety of situations. Passenger satisfaction was found to be strongly related to ride quality and was so modeled. A computer program was developed to assess the comfort and satisfaction levels of passengers on aircraft subjected to arbitrary flight profiles over arbitrary terrain. A model was deduced of the manner in which passengers integrate isolated segments of a flight to obtain an overall trip comfort rating. A method was established for assessing the influence of other links (e.g., access, terminal conditions) in the overall passenger trip.

Kuhlthau, A. R.↗

Spectra and angular distributions of atmospheric gamma rays from 0.3 to 10 MeV at lambda = 40 deg

Measurements of the spectral and angular distributions of atmospheric gamma sq cm rays in the energy range 0.3-10 MeV over Palestine, Texas, at residual depths of 2.5 and 70 g/sq cm are reported. In confirmation of the general features of a model prediction, the measurements show at 2.5 g/sq cm upward moving fluxes greater than the downward moving fluxes, the effect increasing with energy, and approximate isotropy at 70 g/sq cm. Numerous characteristic gamma-ray lines were observed, most prominently at 0.511, 1.6, 2.3, 4.4, and 6.1 MeV. Their intensities were also compared with model predictions. Observations were made with an actively shielded scintillator counter with two detectors, one of aperture 50 deg FWHM and the other of 120 deg FWHM. Above 1 MeV, contributions to the counting rate from photons penetrating the shield annulus and from neutron interactions were large; they were studied by means of a Monte Carlo code and are extensively discussed.

Ling, J. C.↗

Stardust Sample Collection at Wild 2 and Its Preliminary Examination

The primary objective of STARDUST is to collect coma samples from 81P/Wild 2. This was made on January 2, 2004. Before the encounter three significant model predictions existed for the number and size of samples to be captured. Three investigations during the Wild 2 encounter (Dust Flux Monitor, Comet and Interstellar Dust Analyzer and Dynamic Science) made in situ measurements of the dust. Spectacular images were captured of the Wild 2 nucleus and dust jets. This abstract compares the model predictions with the in situ measurements and Wild 2 images and assesses the likely samples to be returned for analysis on January 15, 2006. To give some lead time for sample analysts to prepare for the analyses of the returned samples, the organization of the Preliminary Examination is presented.

Tsou, P.↗

Prediction of Safety Incidents

Crystal Ball is an application being developed that accesses multiple safety databases as a means to improve prediction of safety incidents. Year 1 was data integration, year 2 was predictive modeling, and then year 3(FY20), was the merging of those two prior year efforts into the final application, Crystal Ball (ssc.crystalball.insight.nasa.gov). Crystal Ball sits on the Insight platform (Insight is a NASA platform used to process, manage, integrate, analyze and visualize data at scale, insight.nasa.gov). InFY20, the project focus concentrated on the larger vision of Prediction of Safety Incidents using Crystal Ball as the data source. The Insight platform developer incorporated the predictive modeled data sets, and included a graphical user interface, resulting in a Dashboard for the Crystal Ball application; This application is a one-stop-shop for SMA employees working across data sets and provides a snapshot of current relative risk in different types of locations across the center. The ultimate goal is to have a tool that management can use to aid in decisions that are based on data already being collected. Ideally, the tool would highlight areas of increased risk for any given day. SMA will be conducting case studies to further refine the process of identifying higher areas of risk and potentially strategically direct resources where needed more. Our partners who leveraged funds for this project may consider use at other NASA organizations.

Kamili Shaw↗

Can Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects Account for Analysis Increments of Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic?

In the late 1990's, prior to the launch of the Terra satellite, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) did not include aerosol processes because aerosols were not properly monitored on a global scale and their spatial distributions were not known well enough for their incorporation in operational GCMs. At the time of the first GEOS Reanalysis (Schubert et al. 1993), long time series of analysis increments (the corrections to the atmospheric state by all available meteorological observations) became readily available, enabling detailed analysis of the GEOS-1 errors on a global scale. Such analysis revealed that temperature biases were particularly pronounced in the Tropical Atlantic region, with patterns depicting a remarkable similarity to dust plumes emanating from the African continent as evidenced by TOMS aerosol index maps. Yoram Kaufman was instrumental encouraging us to pursue this issue further, resulting in the study reported in Alpert et al. (1998) where we attempted to assess aerosol forcing by studying the errors of a the GEOS-1 GCM without aerosol physics within a data assimilation system. Based on this analysis, Alpert et al. (1998) put forward that dust aerosols are an important source of inaccuracies in numerical weather-prediction models in the Tropical Atlantic region, although a direct verification of this hypothesis was not possible back then. Nearly 20 years later, numerical prediction models have increased in resolution and complexity of physical parameterizations, including the representation of aerosols and their interactions with the circulation. Moreover, with the advent of NASA's EOS program and subsequent satellites, atmospheric aerosols are now monitored globally on a routine basis, and their assimilation in global models are becoming well established. In this talk we will reexamine the Alpert et al. (1998) hypothesis using the most recent version of the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System with assimilation of aerosols. We will explicitly calculate the impact of aerosols on the temperature analysis increments in the tropical Atlantic and assess the extent to which inclusion of atmospheric aerosols have reduced these increments.

General Circulation Models↗

High temperature fatigue behavior of Haynes 188

The high temperature, creep-fatigue behavior of Haynes 188 was investigated as an element in a broader thermomechanical fatigue life prediction model development program at the NASA-Lewis. The models are still in the development stage, but the data that were generated possess intrinsic value on their own. Results generated to date is reported. Data were generated to characterize isothermal low cycle fatigue resistance at temperatures of 316, 704, and 927 C with cyclic failure lives ranging from 10 to more than 20,000. These results follow trends that would be predicted from a knowledge of tensile properties, i.e., as the tensile ductility varies with temperature, so varies the cyclic inelastic straining capacity. Likewise, as the tensile strength decreases, so does the high cyclic fatigue resistance. A few two-minute hold-time cycles at peak compressive strain were included in tests at 760 C. These results were obtained in support of a redesign effort for the Orbital Maneuverable System engine. No detrimental effects on cyclic life were noted despite the added exposure time for creep and oxidation. Finally, a series of simulated thermal fatigue tests, referred to as bithermal fatigue tests, were conducted using 316 C as the minimum and 760 C as the maximum temperature. Only out-of-phase bithermal tests were conducted to date. These test results are intended for use as input to a more general thermomechanical fatigue life prediction model based on the concepts of the total strain version of Strainrange Partitioning.

Halford, Gary R.↗

The Principle of Energetic Consistency: Application to the Shallow-Water Equations

If the complete state of the earth's atmosphere (e.g., pressure, temperature, winds and humidity, everywhere throughout the atmosphere) were known at any particular initial time, then solving the equations that govern the dynamical behavior of the atmosphere would give the complete state at all subsequent times. Part of the difficulty of weather prediction is that the governing equations can only be solved approximately, which is what weather prediction models do. But weather forecasts would still be far from perfect even if the equations could be solved exactly, because the atmospheric state is not and cannot be known completely at any initial forecast time. Rather, the initial state for a weather forecast can only be estimated from incomplete observations taken near the initial time, through a process known as data assimilation. Weather prediction models carry out their computations on a grid of points covering the earth's atmosphere. The formulation of these models is guided by a mathematical convergence theory which guarantees that, given the exact initial state, the model solution approaches the exact solution of the governing equations as the computational grid is made more fine. For the data assimilation process, however, there does not yet exist a convergence theory. This book chapter represents an effort to begin establishing a convergence theory for data assimilation methods. The main result, which is called the principle of energetic consistency, provides a necessary condition that a convergent method must satisfy. Current methods violate this principle, as shown in earlier work of the author, and therefore are not convergent. The principle is illustrated by showing how to apply it as a simple test of convergence for proposed methods.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

Linear Regression Model for Predictive Service Provider Selection

The increasing number of satellites in orbit has led to a growing reliance on third-party service providers for data transfer between Earth and space. Traditional approaches to managing satellite communications require human intervention, which becomes more burdensome with the escalating number of satellites. This research addresses the need for an efficient and automated system to optimize service provider selection for NASA space communication. Previous research has utilized human-operated approaches for service provider management. Our study fills a gap by developing a cognitive algorithm that automates and optimizes the selection process based on various parameters, such as data volume, priority, quality of service and cost. This novel solution reduces user burden, facilitates service management, and contributes to the development of cognitive spaceflight missions, ultimately supporting NASA’s research into Cognitive Communications technology. The algorithm design consists of three major steps: modeling data, developing a Link Selection Algorithm (LSA) based on a grading system, and applying machine learning using linear regression. The LSA evaluates providers based on user-defined constraints, considering factors such as delivery time, cost, and quality of service. We define a suitability metric which allows our algorithm to make a recommendation to a user regarding which commercial service providers to select. The addition of Linear Regression predicts the future suitability value. Our main findings demonstrate that the resulting algorithm can autonomously manage connections between satellites and providers, maximizing communication channel efficiency. This research has significant implications, as it not only addresses a pressing issue in satellite communication management but also advances the field of cognitive spaceflight missions.

Linear regression↗

Onboard Atmospheric Modeling and Prediction for Autonomous Aerobraking Missions

Aerobraking has proven to be an effective means of increasing the science payload for planetary orbiting missions and/or for enabling the use of less expensive launch vehicles. Though aerobraking has numerous benefits, large operations cost have been required to maintain the aerobraking time line without violating aerodynamic heating or other constraints. Two operations functions have been performed on an orbit by orbit basis to estimate atmospheric properties relevant to aerobraking. The Navigation team typically solves for an atmospheric density scale factor using DSN tracking data and the atmospheric modeling team uses telemetric accelerometer data to recover atmospheric density profiles. After some effort, decisions are made about the need for orbit trim maneuvers to adjust periapsis altitude to stay within the aerobraking corridor. Autonomous aerobraking would reduce the need for many ground based tasks. To be successful, atmospheric modeling must be performed on the vehicle in near real time. This paper discusses the issues associated with estimating the planetary atmosphere onboard and evaluates a number of the options for Mars, Venus and Titan aerobraking missions.

Tolson, Robert H.↗

Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R(sub p)/R(sub ∗))(sup 2) = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micrometers, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F(sub day)/F(sub ∗) = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micrometers, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micrometers, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 micrometer ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 micrometer transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 micrometer depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 micrometer eclipse depth, consistent with a solar composition and modest temperature inversion. We suggest future observations that could distinguish between these two scenarios.

planetary↗

X-Ray Spectro-Polarimetry with Photoelectric Polarimeters

We derive a generalization of forward fitting for X-ray spectroscopy to include linear polarization of X-ray sources, appropriate for the anticipated next generation of space-based photoelectric polarimeters. We show that the inclusion of polarization sensitivity requires joint fitting to three observed spectra, one for each of the Stokes parameters, I(E), U(E), and Q(E). The equations for StokesI (E) (the total intensity spectrum) are identical to the familiar case with no polarization sensitivity, and for which the model-predicted spectrum is obtained by a convolution of the source spectrum, F (E), with the familiar energy response function,(E) R(E,E), where (E) and R(E,E) are the effective area and energy redistribution matrix, respectively. In addition to the energy spectrum, the two new relations for U(E) and Q(E) include the source polarization fraction and position angle versus energy, a(E), and 0(E), respectively, and the model-predicted spectra for these relations are obtained by a convolution with the modulated energy response function, (E)(E) R(E,E), where(E) is the energy-dependent modulation fraction that quantifies a polarimeters angular response to 100 polarized radiation. We present results of simulations with response parameters appropriate for the proposed PRAXyS Small Explorer observatory to illustrate the procedures and methods, and we discuss some aspects of photoelectric polarimeters with relevance to understanding their calibration and operation.

polarization↗

SERVIR-Africa: Developing an Integrated Platform for Floods Disaster Management in Africa

SERVIR-Africa is an ambitious regional visualization and monitoring system that integrates remotely sensed data with predictive models and field-based data to monitor ecological processes and respond to natural disasters. It aims addressing societal benefits including floods and turning data into actionable information for decision-makers. Floods are exogenous disasters that affect many parts of Africa, probably second only to drought in terms of social-economic losses. This paper looks at SERVIR-Africa's approach to floods disaster management through establishment of an integrated platform, floods prediction models, post-event flood mapping and monitoring as well as flood maps dissemination in support of flood disaster management.

Macharia, Daniel↗