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The Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Software Toolbox Capabilities in Assessing the Degradation of Cementitious Barriers - 13487

The Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Project is a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) Office of Tank Waste and Nuclear Materials Management. The CBP program has developed a set of integrated tools (based on state-of-the-art models and leaching test methods) that help improve understanding and predictions of the long-term structural, hydraulic and chemical performance of cementitious barriers used in nuclear applications. Tools selected for and developed under this program have been used to evaluate and predict the behavior of cementitious barriers used in near-surface engineered waste disposal systems for periods of performance up to 100 years and longer for operating facilities and longer than 1000 years for waste disposal. The CBP Software Toolbox has produced tangible benefits to the DOE Performance Assessment (PA) community. A review of prior DOE PAs has provided a list of potential opportunities for improving cementitious barrier performance predictions through the use of the CBP software tools. These opportunities include: 1) impact of atmospheric exposure to concrete and grout before closure, such as accelerated slag and Tc-99 oxidation, 2) prediction of changes in K{sub d}/mobility as a function of time that result from changing pH and redox conditions, 3) concrete degradation from rebar corrosion due to carbonation, 4) early age cracking from drying and/or thermal shrinkage and 5) degradation due to sulfate attack. The CBP has already had opportunity to provide near-term, tangible support to ongoing DOE-EM PAs such as the Savannah River Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) by providing a sulfate attack analysis that predicts the extent and damage that sulfate ingress will have on the concrete vaults over extended time (i.e., > 1000 years). This analysis is one of the many technical opportunities in cementitious barrier performance that can be addressed by the DOE-EM sponsored CBP software tools. Modification of the existing tools can provide many opportunities to bring defense in depth in prediction of the performance of cementitious barriers over time. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Analysis of AP1000 Small-Break Loss-of-Coolant Accident Using Reactor Transient Simulator

The Westinghouse Electric Company’s Advanced Passive Reactor (AP1000) is characterized by the incorporation of passive safety systems (PSSs) designed to ensure core cooling during transient events. The assessment of PSSs requires evaluation of their performance through a combination of experiments and simulations employing various thermal-hydraulic codes. In addition, detailed evaluation of PSSs for a specific reactor system transient analysis such as loss-of-coolant-accident analysis supports understanding representative integral effects test facility development and the further evolution model development and assessment process. Developing a reactor system code is a complex and time-consuming process that requires significant engineering expertise and effort. It can take several months to even years to complete in the early stages of reactor system design and analysis. However, this process can be expedited through the use of transient simulator models for similar reactor systems, which can be used for lesson learning and training purposes. This study uses the Personal Computer Transient Analyzer (PCTRAN) code. The main advantage of PCTRAN is its ease of use and ability to run faster than real time. This study presents the results obtained for a small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) for two breaks using the full version (licensed) of PCTRAN. The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the overall system behavior during the postulated SBLOCA event as well as assess the capability of the PCTRAN code to reproduce the system response during transient events. The obtained results were compared with the Westinghouse NOTRUMP system code. The PCTRAN code proved to be reliable in predicting the qualitative behavior of the system in both transient cases. As for the system response, it was found that it is contingent on the activation time of the PSSs. The differences in reactor coolant system pressure between the two codes were attributed to the critical flow model and simplification of mass and energy balance. Despite PCTRAN’s limitations, it can still provide a reasonable prediction of various reactor parameters such as pressure, mass flow rate, and void fraction during a SBLOCA scenario. It is worth noting that PCTRAN currently employs a bulk approach similar to that of the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) and MELCOR codes. However, the upcoming version of PCTRAN will include an artificial intelligence–based detection and accident prevention system, as well as different models for different reactor components. Consequently, PCTRAN has the potential to be upgraded to match the system thermal-hydraulic codes of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and become more widely used in cybersecurity to safeguard nuclear power plants from cyberattacks.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

High‐Resolution National‐Scale Water Modeling Is Enhanced by Multiscale Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Abstract The National Water Model (NWM) is a key tool for flood forecasting, planning, and water management. Key challenges facing the NWM include calibration and parameter regionalization when confronted with big data. We present two novel versions of high‐resolution (∼37 km 2 ) differentiable models (a type of hybrid model): one with implicit, unit‐hydrograph‐style routing and another with explicit Muskingum‐Cunge routing in the river network. The former predicts streamflow at basin outlets whereas the latter presents a discretized product that seamlessly covers rivers in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Both versions use neural networks to provide a multiscale parameterization and process‐based equations to provide a structural backbone, which were trained simultaneously (“end‐to‐end”) on 2,807 basins across the CONUS and evaluated on 4,997 basins. Both versions show great potential to elevate future NWM performance for extensively calibrated as well as ungauged sites: the median daily Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of all 4,997 basins is improved to around 0.68 from 0.48 of NWM3.0. As they resolve spatial heterogeneity, both versions greatly improved simulations in the western CONUS and also in the Prairie Pothole Region, a long‐standing modeling challenge. The Muskingum‐Cunge version further improved performance for basins >10,000 km 2 . Overall, our results show how neural‐network‐based parameterizations can improve NWM performance for providing operational flood predictions while maintaining interpretability and multivariate outputs. The modeling system supports the Basic Model Interface (BMI), which allows seamless integration with the next‐generation NWM. We also provide a CONUS‐scale hydrologic data set for further evaluation and use.

Song, Yalan [Civil and Environmental Engineering T↗

Development of the INL Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) in the Modelica Eco-System for Validation and Verification

This report provides an overview on the development of the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) in the Modelica process model eco-system at Idaho National Laboratory as part of the integrated energy system initiative. Model development has led to the creation of a dynamic process model of the experimental TEDS facility housed within the Engineering Science Laboratory (ESL) at INL. The model was then used during the pre-construction phase of the experimental effort to inform experimental design (insulation requirements, bypass line placement, expected performance of components) and to test innovative control schemes prior to the initial operation. The TEDS model developed in Modelica includes the primary components of the TEDS experimental unit including: a 200kW Chromalox heater, a single-tank packed bed thermal energy storage system filled with 0.125 inch Alumina (Al 2 O 3 ), an ethylene-glycol to Therminol-66 heat exchanger, system piping, six control valves, and all associated temperature, pressure, and mass flow sensors. The model does not include nitrogen fill gas tanks, or associated overfill tanks, as these are not part of standard system control. Two simulation sets were run. The first is a five-hour test that operates as a shakedown test for the facility. This simulation puts the facility through all five potential operating modes and showcases the ability of valving, control sensors, and component controllers to meet the system demands. The second case imposes a typical summer day demand on the system from a region with mixed commercial and residential electrical needs where the generator alone cannot meet peak demand but instead requires the thermal storage unit to act as a peaking unit. Over the course of the fifteen-hour discharge cycle heat losses account for a heat loss of approximately 15°C in outlet temperature. Such heat losses would lead to a decrease in overall system efficiency and may lead to additional design changes for such designs in the future that may include a topping heater. Through commencement of this work, a systems level model of TEDS with associated control systems, sensors, piping diameters, and component capabilities has been created. This model has been utilized in the pre-experimental phase to inform system design, insulation thicknesses, and potential control schemes to operate the system effectively and safely. Once TEDS begins operation, this model will be refined, tuned, and used for validation and verification purposes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A superstructure optimization approach for process synthesis under complex reaction networks

Here in this work, we present mixed integer linear programming methods for the synthesis of processes that involve complex reaction networks. Specifically, we consider the modeling of reactors and interconnecting streams in systems where the composition of the reactor inlet streams can vary substantially, thereby making the determination of the limiting component as well as the calculation of the stream heating/cooling and power requirements challenging. First, towards the modeling of reactors, we develop an extent-based method which detects the limiting reactant of each reaction occurring in parallel with others, based on the inlet flows of the reactants. Second, we develop a computationally tractable method for the calculation of the work and heating/cooling duty needed to condition any stream of a process based on simple calculations that can be performed offline. Finally, we present how the two aforementioned components can be integrated in an optimization model generated based on a process superstructure. We demonstrate the application of the developed methods for the synthesis of a biorefinery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ground vehicle lane-keeping assistance system via differential flatness output feedback control and algebraic derivative estimation

Vehicle run-off-road is one of the most frequent and fatal traffic accidents in the United States. Various lane-keeping assistance (LKA) systems have been developed in the last decade to help drivers stay on the road. Most of them are built upon linear driver–vehicle–road (DVR) models and treat road curvature as a disturbance. Albeit effective, their control performance would degrade if road curvature varies rapidly. Here, this paper proposes a novel nonlinear DVR model by integrating a driver steering model into vehicle–road kinematics, which explicitly considers road curvature. Particularly, this nonlinear DVR system has been proven to be differentially flat, and a flatness-based LKA system is designed. Additionally, Model-Free Control is introduced to compensate for system modeling errors. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations and diver-in-the-loop experiments validate the proposed control framework and demonstrate the performance enhancement with respect to a representative linear robust LKA system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Substitution-Mediated Calcination of Nickel-Based Cathodes: Decoupling Lithiation and Crystallization

Nickel-based layered cathodes such as LiNiO 2 offer high energy density for lithium-ion batteries, yet improvements in cycling performance and safety are required for practical use–often achieved through manganese and cobalt substitution as in LiNi 0.80 Mn 0.10 Co 0.10 O 2 (NMC811). However, how such substitution impacts calcination, the key process that governs lithiation, structural ordering, crystallization, and ultimately the resulting material properties, remains unclear. Here, in this study, we investigate substitution-mediated calcination dynamics in NMC811 compared to LiNiO 2 using multiscale-correlated in situ spectroscopy and atomistic-to-mesoscale modeling. While both systems progress through the same sequence of intermediates toward the thermodynamically favored layered phase, NMC811 exhibits an earlier onset of layering, concurrent with hydroxide decomposition followed by sluggish crystallization. Modeling reveals that Mn and Co lower the energy barrier for lithium incorporation and ordering but increase the penalty for interlayer gliding, thereby slowing crystal growth at elevated temperatures. This substitution-mediated decoupling of lithiation and crystallization explains the fine-grained microstructure observed in NMC811 versus coarsened particles in LiNiO 2 and establishes a mechanistic framework for predictive microstructure engineering of Ni-based cathodes.

Calcination↗

A cell-free system for production of 2,3-butanediol is robust to growth-toxic compounds

The need for sustainable, low-cost production of bioenergy and commodity chemicals is increasing. Unfortunately, the engineering potential of whole-cell catalysts to address this need can be hampered by cellular toxicity. When such bottlenecks limit the commercial feasibility of whole-cell fermentation, cell-free, or in vitro, based approaches may offer an alternative. Here, we assess the impact of three classes of growth toxic compounds on crude extract-based, cell-free chemical conversions. As a model system, we test a metabolic pathway for conversion of glucose to 2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) in lysates of Escherichia coli . First, we characterized 2,3-BDO production with different classes of antibiotics and found, as expected, that the system is uninhibited by compounds that prevent cell growth by means of cell wall replication and DNA, RNA, and protein synthesis. Second, we considered the impact of polar solvent addition (e.g., methanol, n-butanol). We observed that volumetric productivities (g/L/h) were slowed with increasing hydrophobicity of added alcohols. Finally, we investigated the effects of using pretreated biomass hydrolysate as a feed stock, observing a 25% reduction in 2,3-BDO production as a result of coumaroyl and feruloyl amides. Overall, we find the cell-free system to be robust to working concentrations of antibiotics and other compounds that are toxic to cell growth, but do not denature or inhibit relevant enzymes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

CRCNS22 Learning Rules in the Hippocampus and their Mapping to Neuromorphic Systems (Final Technical Report)

Large scale biologically-realistic computational models are key to investigating the interplay between structure and function in nervous systems, thus paving the way to new clinical methods and neuro-inspired computing solutions. This project focuses on the hippocampus, in particular the CA3-CA1 regions, due to their role in associative learning and memory, pattern separation and completion, and spatial navigation. Investigations into the neuronal organization and learning rule(s) of this circuit can shed light into how declarative memories are formed, stored, recalled and forgotten and inform computational, experimental and clinical neuroscience work. Our project aims at developing a novel data-driven methodology supported by a broad heterogeneous base of neuroscience experimental knowledge and inspired from advances in computer science and engineering. Specifically, this work will benchmark existing and new learning rules within a full-scale spiking neural network simulation of the CA3-CA1 region. The model will be based on an open-source repository, called the Hippocampome, which contains neuronal morphologies, firing patterns, synapse probabilities, and most other required parameters for all known neuron types in the rodent hippocampal formation. The model will be first trained in a supervised fashion for associative memory tasks using backpropagation through time traditionally used in computer science, enhanced with a new technique called the surrogate gradient method. This optimization method will be used to obtain a global loss minimization, but it is not biologically inspired as it assumes the use of data not locally available to the synapses. However, we propose its use as a benchmarking tool, to compare the training performance of local biologically plausible and hardware-mappable learning rules at scale. New rules or combinations will be proposed and tested as needed, based on the obtained results. Progress in this area will also drive the development of novel hardware-mappable algorithms for continual lifelong learning and categorization of new events from few presented examples. This project goes beyond the existing state-of-the-art by looking at large scale realistic neuronal circuits as networks trainable via global optimization methods such as surrogate gradient descent. The objective function of the brain that supports learning is largely unknown, but it is likely that it operates through local learning rules. Studying network trajectories around local minima as proposed in this work represents a useful strategy for understanding whether a network is training by using a specific (set of) learning rule(s). Starting from a completely untrained network is a challenging test since it is difficult to determine how the learning rule affects the trajectory of the network. This interdisciplinary project will help understand what rule governs learning in these regions or if multiple learning rules are involved. The work will develop a robust methodology to measure if the network is converging to the target solution, oscillating around it, or diverging away.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Optimization for the Design and Control of Large-Scale Systems (LDRD Final Report)

Engineering decisions are often formulated as optimization problems such as the optimal design or control of physical systems. In these applications, the resulting optimization problems are constrained by large-scale simulations involving systems of partial differential equations (PDEs), ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and differential algebraic equations (DAEs). In addition, critical components of these systems are fraught with uncertainty, including unverifiable modeling assumptions, unknown boundary and initial conditions, and uncertain coefficients. Typically, these components are estimated using noisy and incomplete data from a variety of sources (e.g., physical experiments). The lack of knowledge of the true underlying probabilistic characterization of model inputs motivates the need for optimal solutions that are robust to this uncertainty. In this report, we introduce a framework for handling "distributional" uncertainties in the context of simulation-based optimization. This includes a novel measure discretization technique that will lead to an adaptive optimization algorithm tailored to exploit the structures inherent to simulation- based optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data-based and secure switched cyber–physical systems

In this work, we develop a completely model-free moving target defense framework for the detection and mitigation of sensor and/or actuator attacks in cyber–physical systems with dynamics that evolve in discrete-time. We incorporate an intrusion detection mechanism based on an approximate dynamic programming technique that learns the policies for optimal regulation and optimal tracking while simultaneously defending against actuator and sensor attacks in a model-free fashion. Switching rules are leveraged to force proactive and reactive defense mechanisms as well as, guarantee the stability of the equilibrium point. Finally, as a case study, we apply the proposed moving target defense framework to a DC–DC converter that is used in electric vehicles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Comparative Study and Accommodation of Biodiesel in Diesel‐Electric Hybrid Vehicles Coupled with Aftertreatment Systems

Abstract Biodiesel is a promising renewable alternative fuel, which can be used in diesel‐electric hybrid vehicles to potentially bring one kind of clean vehicle on the road. However, the fuel property variation can cause impacts to the powertrain and aftertreatment systems. In this paper, biodiesel's influence on post‐injection effects is studied. Experimental results are obtained to demonstrate the differences between diesel and biodiesel, and to build up fuel‐dependent maps of engine torque, temperature, and emissions. Utilizing those maps, an aftertreatment warm‐up approach compatible with both fuels is developed by strategically enabling double post injections. Finally, a supervisory controller based on model predictive control method is designed to optimize and balance the tradeoff between hybrid vehicle fuel economy and tailpipe emissions. Simulations are conducted for both fuels with or without the proposed control strategy. The validation results show that for both fuels, the controller can significantly reduce tailpipe emissions by successfully regulating the catalyst temperature to the desired range sacrificing fuel economy. And for biodiesel, additional fuel cost is required in order to realize the tradeoff.

Zhao, Junfeng↗

Probabilistic cost estimation methods for treatment of water extracted during CO 2 storage and EOR

Extraction and treatment of in situ water can minimize risk for large-scale CO 2 injection in saline aquifers during carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Additionally, treatment and reuse of oil and gas produced waters for hydraulic fracturing will conserve scarce fresh-water resources. Each treatment step, including transportation and waste disposal, generates economic and engineering challenges and risks; these steps should be factored into a comprehensive assessment. We expand the water treatment model (WTM) coupled within the sequestration system model CO 2 -PENS and use chemistry data from seawater and proposed injection sites in Wyoming, to demonstrate the relative importance of different water types on costs, including little-studied effects of organic pretreatment and transportation. We compare the WTM with an engineering water treatment model, utilizing energy costs and transportation costs. Specific energy costs for treatment of Madison Formation brackish and saline base cases and for seawater compared closely between the two models, with moderate differences for scenarios incorporating energy recovery. Transportation costs corresponded for all but low flow scenarios (<5000 m 3 /d). Some processes that have high costs (e.g., truck transportation) do not contribute the most variance to overall costs. Other factors, including feed-water temperature and water storage costs, are more significant contributors to variance. These results imply that the WTM can provide good estimates of treatment and related process costs (AACEI equivalent level 5, concept screening, or level 4, study or feasibility), and the complex relationships between processes when extracted waters are evaluated for use during CCUS and EOR site development.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

GRAVITATIONAL WAVES OF JET PRECESSION IN GAMMA-RAY BURSTS

The physical nature of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is believed to involve an ultra-relativistic jet. The observed complex structure of light curves motivates the idea of jet precession. In this work, we study the gravitational waves of jet precession based on neutrino-dominated accretion disks around black holes, which may account for the central engine of GRBs. In our model, the jet and the inner part of the disk may precess along with the black hole, which is driven by the outer part of the disk. Gravitational waves are therefore expected to be significant from this black-hole-inner-disk precession system. By comparing our numerical results with the sensitivity of some detectors, we find that it is possible for DECIGO and BBO to detect such gravitational waves, particularly for GRBs in the Local Group.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Systems Biology Platform for Characterizing Regulatory and Metabolic Pathways that Influence and Control Microbial Hydrogen Production

In this project, we created a novel systems biology technology platform and resources that can be used to reverse engineer and analyze gene regulatory networks and metabolic pathways that influence and control microbial hydrogen production. We constructed genome-scale transcriptional regulatory and metabolic models using automated model reconstruction methods, and subsequently integrated the regulatory and metabolic models for computational analysis. We devised novel algorithms for inferring putative regulatory architectures of metabolic pathways based on their topology, and for integrating gene expression information in flux balance analysis (FBA) models towards computing dynamical changes in metabolic objectives. From a metabolic engineering perspective, we improved and applied a method for predicting optimal environmental conditions and genetic modifications towards maximal productions of multiple desired metabolic outputs. We also developed and tested an improved flux balance approach for predicting the response of metabolic networks to genetic perturbations, proving that errors in model predictions are approaching the limit of experimental uncertainty. We also used the metabolic and regulatory models to identify relevant metabolic processes and pathways involved in hydrogen production. Below we provide a summary and details of our achievements.

Collins, James J.↗

Spark-Assisted HCCI Residential CHP

A transformative small spark ignition (SI) internal combustion (IC) engine fueled with natural gas was developed for combined heat and power (CHP) applications using a combination of cycle simulations, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling, and engine experiments. The resulting 1 kW CHP engine was demonstrated to achieve 36.1% brake thermal efficiency (BTE) while meeting aggressive exhaust emissions targets using a low-cost three-way catalyst. Starting from a “clean-sheet” design, modeling tools were used to select the optimal engine parameters and operating characteristics. The disruptive technologies developed for the CHP system have a target lifetime of at least 10 years. The engine cost at volume of 10,000 units was estimated to be $\$$1,050. A combination of experimental and simulation results were used to identify a path to the program target of 38.6% BTE. Base engine design parameters (i.e., displacement, speed, bore, stroke, valve timings, and compression ratio) were optimized to reduce friction, heat transfer, and exhaust losses. The base clean sheet prototype engine achieved 32% BTE. Optimization of the lube oil and coolant temperatures added 1.8% BTE. The addition of exhaust gas recirculation added 1.1% BTE. Novel thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) developed over the course of the project added 1.2% BTE. Further improvements in engine friction reduction (1.3% BTE) and improved combustion (1.2% BTE) are estimated to meet the program target 38.6% BTE, while also meeting the stringent criteria pollutant emissions targets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Recommendation System by Leveraging the Semantics of Adverse Childhood Experiences: Proof-of-Concept Prototype Development

The study of adverse childhood experiences and their consequences has emerged over the past 20 years. Although the conclusions from these studies are available, the same is not true of the data. Accordingly, it is a complex problem to build a training set and develop machine-learning models from these studies. Classic machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques cannot provide a full scientific understanding of the inner workings of the underlying models. This raises credibility issues due to the lack of transparency and generalizability. Explainable artificial intelligence is an emerging approach for promoting credibility, accountability, and trust in mission-critical areas such as medicine by combining machine-learning approaches with explanatory techniques that explicitly show what the decision criteria are and why (or how) they have been established. Hence, thinking about how machine learning could benefit from knowledge graphs that combine “common sense” knowledge as well as semantic reasoning and causality models is a potential solution to this problem. In this study, we aimed to leverage explainable artificial intelligence, and propose a proof-of-concept prototype for a knowledge-driven evidence-based recommendation system to improve mental health surveillance. We used concepts from an ontology that we have developed to build and train a question-answering agent using the Google DialogFlow engine. In addition to the question-answering agent, the initial prototype includes knowledge graph generation and recommendation components that leverage third-party graph technology. To showcase the framework functionalities, we here present a prototype design and demonstrate the main features through four use case scenarios motivated by an initiative currently implemented at a children’s hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. Ongoing development of the prototype requires implementing an optimization algorithm of the recommendations, incorporating a privacy layer through a personal health library, and conducting a clinical trial to assess both usability and usefulness of the implementation. This semantic-driven explainable artificial intelligence prototype can enhance health care practitioners’ ability to provide explanations for the decisions they make.

adverse childhood experiences↗