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DOE OSTI2022

Compositional Methods for Schrödinger's Equation with Application to Optimal Control

The evolution of the state of a quantum computer is governed by Schrödinger's equation. We introduce compositional methods, a way to increase the order of symmetric methods by replacing one timestep by multiple timesteps. We perform several numerical experiments, including a simulation of a two qubit CNOT gate, using compositional variants of Störmer-Verlet and the implicit midpoint rule. We observe that the compositional methods demonstrate greater computational efficiency than the base methods when the desired error tolerance is less than ~ 10 -4 to 10 -5 . We discuss the trade-offs of using each compositional method, as well as differences between using Störmer-Verlet or the implicit midpoint rule as the base integrator of the compositional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solid Phase Gradient Alloying Method via ShAPE

Alloying has been used to confer desirable properties to various metallic systems since the bronze age. For example, Ni, Mn, and Cr are alloyed into an Fe matrix to make steel, which has improved strength and corrosion resistance (as displayed in Fig. 1). In addition to the type of alloying elements, the amount of alloying elements added into a matrix is also very critical for a material’s mechanical property, physical property, machinability, and cost. Conventionally, new alloys are discovered by combining alloy precursors and elemental constituents into a mixture and melting them together. The solidified product or ingot represents a usually non-homogeneous combination of the chemistry with a microstructure dictated by the physics of solidification. It is time and energy intensive to optimize the alloying amounts via the casting process and hence, economically not conducive to rapid alloy discovery. In addition, the cast microstructure seen in the as-cast ingot is often not the ideal, nor even desired structure for optimized performance. Cast materials often need further processing such as homogenization, annealing, and deformation work put in through rolling, forging, extruding, etc. to have favorable microstructures and properties. A faster method to discover new alloy combinations and evaluate them in their worked or processed form is needed. Recently, Laser Engineered Net Shaping was applied to fabricate gradient compositional material for alloy designing. However, the mechanical properties of this gradient alloy were poor due to the existence of impurities, oxidation and cracks that are inherent in the melt-solidification process. Because of these limitations, we propose to use a solid-phase process (ShAPE) to create bulk materials (extrudates) that vary in composition from one end of the extruded solid to the other. Various manufacturing methods for alloy design including conventional casting method, laser based combinatorial method and current solid phase gradient alloying method are displayed and compared in Fig. 2. ShAPE machine and a schematic of ShAPE process are displayed in Fig. 3. Starting material is processed by a rotating and plunging die to form an extrudate. We are proposing through this methodology to invent a new, bulk-scale combinatorial technique. With this novel technique, alloying element can be dissolved into the matrix with a continued gradient without bulk melting. Formation of inter-metallics and defects originating from melt processing can be avoided. In addition, the ShAPE process creates the mixed alloy chemistry, and meanwhile subjects the material to severe plastic strain, which induces the favorable “worked” microstructure. Products from the ShAPE process can be tested in hardness directly providing a path to rapid evaluation of mechanical properties. The ability to create graded structures using friction stir processing (FSP) has been demonstrated, however using the ShAPE process we believe will lead to much faster and higher fidelity results. When combined with high throughput screening methods of physical, mechanical and microstructural property characterization, efficiency and accuracy of alloy design can be significantly improved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Angular Quadrature Scheme for a backwards-in-time Method of Characteristics Solution to the Radiative Transfer Equation [Slides]

Radiative transfer/radiation transport are important problems to solve in astrophysics and high energy density physics. Various methods exist to solve radiation transport, such as Monte Carlo (MC), Discrete Ordinates (S N ), Method of Characteristics (MOC), and the spherical harmonics (P N ) method. Method of Characteristics requires “launching” of rays in discrete directions. Unresolved details of angular mesh create ray effects and can miss sources in the domain. Ray effects can lead to unphysical “stepping” in solution and incorrect energy deposition. Adaptive quadrature schemes can be used to detect and mitigate these effects. The Method of Characteristics (MOC) is a common method for solving hyperbolic PDEs in radiation transport and supersonic flow problems. Generally in MOC for radiation transport, virtual particles are tracked from birth to the end of a timestep. This requires interpolation to go from final location to cell averaged or corner values of angular intensity. Backwards-in-Time (BIT) particle tracking avoids this by prescribing the final position of the virtual particle at the cell nodes/corners. Angular intensities are computed at time k + 1 by launching ray back to previous timestep(s), or t = 0. Scheme allows solution to be computed as the characteristic ray is traced backwards in time.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Creating a Simulation Platform for Research and Development of Advanced Control Methods

Advanced nuclear reactors are essential to meet the changing energy requirements throughout both the United States and the rest of world. In addition to other features, they are designed to enable deployment in remote locations and operate in a fully (or near-fully) autonomous manner, which will require a new control paradigm. To realize autonomously operating reactors, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Enabling Technologies Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (NEET ASI) program conducts research and development into the enabling technologies and methods needed, including digital twins, machine learning, and risk modeling, in addition to various types of control methods. These technologies and methods are the key foundations needed to achieve fully autonomous systems. To develop and evaluate the technologies and methods necessary for achieving autonomous operations, it is critical to identify a software tool capable of integrating all the required elements. In surveying the available solutions, no software platforms were identified that could accomplish what was needed without introducing drawbacks. This challenge was the motivation for the current effort: to develop a software platform that can seamlessly integrate autonomouscontrol-enabling technologies and methods, allowing for accelerated research and development and transfer of ideas. The resulting platform, known as the Control and Optimization Modular Modeling Application for Nuclear Deployment (COMMAND), is Python-based, and leverages open-source tools to provide flexibility and facilitate building upon prior research. It is designed to enable advanced reactor developers to deploy and test advanced control technologies and methods coupled with their own models, solutions, and hardware. Given the substantial undertaking of developing such a platform, the current effort focused on laying down scalable, flexible software foundations and infrastructure, then demonstrating the platform via a use case. These foundations included developing generic modules, which contain the base variable and system blocks (the information and functional building blocks, respectively, that can be used to design a simulation) and the data handling and storage blocks needed to exchange information between the various blocks; as well as enablingtechnology-specific modules. This platform was evaluated via a use case, which was to simulate and control a process for the Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS) test bed. While MACS is not currently directly coupled to any specific microreactor physics, it was initially developed in concert with the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor, and so the MARVEL physics are used here. As part of this use case, several enabling-technology-specific blocks within COMMAND were integrated, including a proportional integral derivative (PID) control block, a Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D) block, and an anomaly detection block. The COMMAND software platform was successfully demonstrated to achieve the scalability and flexibility objectives of this effort and will be leveraged by the program’s research efforts to advance state of the art control methodologies towards autonomous operations of advanced reactors. As new use cases are created and implemented, it is anticipated that COMMAND will continue to grow and evolve to meet new requirements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Alternate Methods for Cleaning Zirconium Plate

The United States High Performance Research Reactor Conversion Program identified the need to transition from highly enriched uranium fuel to lowly enriched uranium fuel for high power research and civil reactors. One of the fuel configurations selected for these reactors was a uranium (U) foil alloyed with 10% molybdenum (Mo). The U-10Mo fuel foil was then covered with a zirconium (Zr) interlayer and pressed into an aluminum cladding. Idaho National Laboratory prescribed a need to remove surface oxidation on the Zr prior to bonding it with U-10Mo fuel foil. To determine the best method of oxidation removal, a variety of polishing methods, including hand polishing with a diamond paste or Scotch-Brite™ pads, mechanically wet-polishing with abrasive belts, and chemical etching with hydrofluoric/nitric acid mixtures, were investigated on pre-polished Zircaloy 702 sheets purchased directly from the manufacturer. No change in surface roughness was detected using any of these methods relative to the as-received material. In fact, scanning electron microscopy detected grit from hand polishing with Amplex Grade 30 waste soluble diamond paste and Scotch-Brite™ pads. Visible staining was found, and fluorine detected via X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy on the flash etching samples. These contaminants were not seen on the as-received material. In addition to the need to remove the oxide layer on the Zr prior to co-rolling, there are concerns that the Neolube debonding agent on the co-rolling can may contaminate the Zr surface after co-rolling. The experimental results found that zirconium in contact with Neolube coated steel plates was easily cleaning with ethanol wiping after heat treated and no carbide inclusions remained on the surface. Overall, all cleaning methods tested did not significantly change the surface roughness of the plates or reduce the oxide layer present on the zirconium. Carbon was found on all the samples, before and after cleaning, except for the flash etch samples which detected fluorine instead. The insignificant changes seen in the cleaned plates relative to the as received plates question the need for cleaning prior to rolling. Further investigation in the requirements for cleaning at this step is recommended. Current methods for cleaning the surface after hot rolling with alcohol appear sufficient. After hot rolling, if Neolube does peel off the can and onto the zirconium coated foil surface, a dry abrasive or diamond paste polish is not recommended due to the chance of abrasive being embedded into the surface. However, the ability of an etchant to lift the lubricant off the zirconium surface indicates that a spot etch method could work to clean specific spots where Neolube is present, if the need arises.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Particle Method for Computational Shock Physics

A long-standing area of research for Eulerian shock wave physics codes has been the treatment of strength and damage for materials. Here we present a method that will aid in the analysis of strength and failure in shock physics applications where excessive diffusion of critical variables can occur and control the solution outcome. Eulerian methods excel for large deformation simulations in general but are inaccurate in capturing structural behavior. Lagrangian methods provide better structural response, but finite element meshes can become tangled. Therefore, a technique for merging Lagrangian and Eulerian treatments of material response, within a single numerical framework, was implemented in the Multiple Component computational shock physics hydrocode. The capability is a Lagrangian/Eulerian Particle Method (LEPM) that uses particles to interface a Lagrangian treatment of material strength with a more traditional Eulerian treatment of the Equation of State (EOS). Lagrangian numerical methods avoid the advection diffusion found in Eulerian methods, which typically strongly affects strength constitutive law internal variables, such as equivalent plastic strain, porosity and/or damage. The Lagrangian capability enhances existing capabilities and permits accurate predictions of high rate, large deformation and/or shock of mechanical structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Experimental and High-Temperature Discrete-Element Method Modeling Studies of Aluminosilicate Particle Handling in Concentrated Solar Power Environments

Chemically inert, aluminosilicate based particles have been investigated as both a thermal transport and sensible energy storage medium for concentrated solar power facilities. These particles will experience a wide range of operating temperatures (300-1000 K) and handling conditions (dense to dilute falling particle curtains, dense granular flows, or dense structures), requiring specially-designed and optimized infrastructures. The relative influence of collisional and frictional interactions between particles varies based on temperature-dependent particulate properties and greatly impacts the bulk, granular flow behavior. These underlying physics are captured using discrete element method modeling tools. However, this modeling method is computationally expensive as each particle position and interaction is tracked during the simulation. These modeling methods are further complicated by introducing temperature-dependent particle properties, high-temperature radiative exchange, and directional irradiation sources experienced by granular flows in concentrated solar power environments. Coupled experimental and numerical studies of aluminosilicate particles in rotary kilns and dense particle curtains were performed for bulk temperatures up to 1073 K. The three particle types investigated included Carbobead HSP 30 /60, Carbobead CP 30/60, and Granusil 4030. Temperature, spatial, and velocity profile data were extracted from experimental runs using embedded K-type thermocouple probes and particle image velocimetry techniques. Experimental and numerical studies were compared using spatial temperature profiles, velocity fields, and shape profiles of the bulk, granular flows. Numerical models were developed using commercially available discrete element method modeling software, Aspherix®. Existing Aspherix® functionality was expanded by introducing coupled radiative exchange modeling tools. The laboratory-scale rotary kiln was developed to investigate the steady-state heat and mass transfer performance of aluminosilicate particles based on particle type, bulk handling temperature, and wall roughness. The rotational speed of the rotary kiln was varied to control the relative impact of collisional and frictional effects upon the granular flow behavior. Heat and mass transfer performance was categorized based on the Froude number and the observed flow regimes of slipping, rolling, cascading, and centrifuging. Coupled discrete element method modeling studies were used to evaluate the effects of temperature-dependent, particulate mechanical properties upon bulk flow behavior and upon the relative effects of radiative, advective, and/or conductive heat transfer. A high-temperature (< 1073 K) falling particle curtain was similarly fabricated to investigate the heat and mass transfer performance of aluminosilicate particles in particle handling situations dominated by inter-particle collisions. The impact of particle type, flow preheat temperatures (< 1073K), and bulk mass flow rates were investigated upon the particle curtain shape, temperature, and velocity profiles. Coupled discrete element method modeling studies were performed to evaluate the varying impact of temperature-dependent, particulate mechanical properties on the bulk flow behavior and the temperature profile of the particle curtain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Efficient Ensemble-Based Stochastic Gradient Methods for Optimization Under Geological Uncertainty

Ensemble-based stochastic gradient methods, such as the ensemble optimization (EnOpt) method, the simplex gradient (SG) method, and the stochastic simplex approximate gradient (StoSAG) method, approximate the gradient of an objective function using an ensemble of perturbed control vectors. These methods are increasingly used in solving reservoir optimization problems because they are not only easy to parallelize and couple with any simulator but also computationally more efficient than the conventional finite-difference method for gradient calculations. In this work, we show that EnOpt may fail to achieve sufficient improvement of the objective function when the differences between the objective function values of perturbed control variables and their ensemble mean are large. On the basis of the comparison of EnOpt and SG, we propose a hybrid gradient of EnOpt and SG to save on the computational cost of SG. We also suggest practical ways to reduce the computational cost of EnOpt and StoSAG by approximating the objective function values of unperturbed control variables using the values of perturbed ones. We first demonstrate the performance of our improved ensemble schemes using a benchmark problem. Results show that the proposed gradients saved about 30–50% of the computational cost of the same optimization by using EnOpt, SG, and StoSAG. As a real application, we consider pressure management in carbon storage reservoirs, for which brine extraction wells need to be optimally placed to reduce reservoir pressure buildup while maximizing the net present value. Results show that our improved schemes reduce the computational cost significantly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Methods for safely sharing dual-use genetic data

Background: Some genetic data has dual-use potential. Sharing pathogen data has shown tremendous value. For example therapeutic development and lineage tracking during the COVID pandemic. This data sharing is complicated by the fact that these data have the potential to be used for harm. The genome sequence of a pathogen can be used to enable malicious genetic engineering approaches or to recreate the pathogen from synthetic DNA. Standard data security methods can be applied to genetic data, but when data is shared between institutions, ensuring appropriate security can be difficult. Sensitive data that is shared internationally among a wide array of institutions can be especially difficult to control. Methods for securely storing and sharing genetic data with potential for dual-use are needed to mitigate this potential harm.Results: Here we propose new methods that allow genetic data to be shared in a data format that prevents a nefarious actor from accessing sensitive aspects of the data. Our methods obfuscate raw sequence data by pooling reads from different samples. This approach can ensure that data is secure while stored and during electronic transfer. We demonstrate that by pooling raw sequence data from multiple samples of the same organism, the ability to fully reconstruct any individual sample is prevented. In the pooled data, most genomic information remains, but reads or mutations cannot be directly attributed to any individual sample. To further restrict access to information, regions of a genome can be removed from the reads.Conclusion: Our methods obscure genomic information within raw sequence reads. This method can allow genetic data to be stored and shared while preventing a nefarious actor from being able to perfectly reconstruct an organism. Broad-scale sequence information remains, while fine scale details about specific samples are difficult or impossible to reconstruct. Our software is available at https://github.com/Geneinfosec-Inc/ReadMixer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Solar Energy Product Based on Cloud Coverage Estimation Using Machine Learning Methods

Cloud cover estimation from images taken by sky-facing cameras can be an important input for analyzing current weather conditions and estimating photovoltaic power generation. The constant change in position, shape, and density of clouds, however, makes the development of a robust computational method for cloud cover estimation challenging. Accurately determining the edge of clouds and hence the separation between clouds and clear sky is difficult and often impossible. Toward determining cloud cover for estimating photovoltaic output, we propose using machine learning methods for cloud segmentation. We compare several methods including a classical regression model, deep learning methods, and boosting methods that combine results from the other machine learning models. To train each of the machine learning models with various sky conditions, we supplemented the existing Singapore whole sky imaging segmentation database with hazy and overcast images collected by a camera-equipped Waggle sensor node. We found that the U-Net architecture, one of the deep neural networks we utilized, segmented cloud pixels most accurately. However, the accuracy of segmenting cloud pixels did not guarantee high accuracy of estimating solar irradiance. We confirmed that the cloud cover ratio is directly related to solar irradiance. Additionally, we confirmed that solar irradiance and solar power output are closely related; hence, by predicting solar irradiance, we can estimate solar power output. This study demonstrates that sky-facing cameras with machine learning methods can be used to estimate solar power output. This ground-based approach provides an inexpensive way to understand solar irradiance and estimate production from photovoltaic solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Methods for Measuring Carbon Dioxide Uptake and Permanence: Review and Implications for Macroalgae Aquaculture

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is gaining recognition as a necessary action in addition to emissions reduction to prevent some of the worst effects of climate change. Macroalgae aquaculture has been identified as a potential CDR strategy and significant research investments have been made in this area. This article reviews current methods for monitoring carbon to assess the potential for application in the context of macroalgae aquaculture as a CDR strategy. In total, 382 papers were included in the review and categorized by carbon uptake methods, carbon permanence methods, and comprehensive frameworks for assessing carbon capture. While methods for measuring carbon uptake are well established, methods to assess the permanence of carbon in the natural life cycle of macroalgae and in products following harvest are lacking. To achieve the full benefit of macroalgae cultivation as a climate solution, monitoring, reporting, and verification standards and improved methods for assessing carbon uptake and permanence need to be developed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tensor Network Space-Time Spectral Collocation Method for Time-Dependent Convection-Diffusion-Reaction Equations

Emerging tensor network techniques for solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs), known for their ability to break the curse of dimensionality, deliver new mathematical methods for ultra-fast numerical solutions of high-dimensional problems. Here, we introduce a Tensor Train (TT) Chebyshev spectral collocation method, in both space and time, for the solution of the time-dependent convection-diffusion-reaction (CDR) equation with inhomogeneous boundary conditions, in Cartesian geometry. Previous methods for numerical solution of time-dependent PDEs often used finite difference for time, and a spectral scheme for the spatial dimensions, which led to a slow linear convergence. Spectral collocation space-time methods show exponential convergence; however, for realistic problems they need to solve large four-dimensional systems. We overcome this difficulty by using a TT approach, as its complexity only grows linearly with the number of dimensions. We show that our TT space-time Chebyshev spectral collocation method converges exponentially, when the solution of the CDR is smooth, and demonstrate that it leads to a very high compression of linear operators from terabytes to kilobytes in TT-format, and a speedup of tens of thousands of times when compared to a full-grid space-time spectral method. These advantages allow us to obtain the solutions at much higher resolutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of Electromagnetic Methods for Reservoir Monitoring with Emphasis on Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage

The Controlled-Source ElectroMagnetic (CSEM) method provides crucial information about reservoir fluids and their spatial distribution. Carbon dioxide (CO2) storage, enhanced oil recovery (EOR), geothermal exploration, and lithium exploration are ideal applications for the CSEM method. The versatility of CSEM permits its customization to specific reservoir objectives by selecting the appropriate components of a multi-component system. To effectively tailor the CSEM approach, it is essential to determine whether the primary target reservoir is resistive or conductive. This task is relatively straightforward in CO2 monitoring, where the injected fluid is resistive. However, for scenarios involving brine-saturated (water-wet) or oil-wet (carbon capture, utilization, and storage—CCUS) reservoirs, consideration must also be given to conductive reservoir components. The optimization of data acquisition before the survey involves analyzing target parameters and the sensitivity of multi-component CSEM. This optimization process typically includes on-site noise measurements and 3D anisotropic modeling. Based on our experience, subsequent surveys tend to proceed smoothly, yielding robust measurements that align with scientific objectives. Other critical aspects to be considered are using magnetotelluric (MT) measurements to define the overall background resistivities and integrating real-time quality assurance during data acquisition with 3D modeling. This integration allows the fine tuning of acquisition parameters such as acquisition time and necessary repeats. As a result, data can be examined in real-time to assess subsurface information content while the acquisition is ongoing. Consequently, high-quality data sets are usually obtained for subsequent processing and initial interpretation with minimal user intervention. The implementation of sensitivity analysis during the inversion process plays a pivotal role in ensuring that the acquired data accurately respond to the target reservoirs’ expected depth range. To elucidate these concepts, we present an illustrative example from a CO2 storage site in North Dakota, USA, wherein the long-offset transient electromagnetic method (LOTEM), a variation of the CSEM method, and the MT method were utilized. This example showcases how surface measurements attain appropriately upscaled log-scale sensitivity. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the CSEM and MT methods was examined in other case histories, where the target reservoirs exhibited conductive properties, such as those encountered in enhanced oil recovery (EOR), geothermal, and lithium exploration applications. The same equipment specifications were utilized for CSEM and MT surveys across all case studies.

Barajas-Olalde, César↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Rapid and High Throughput MIC Determination Method to Screen Uranium Resistant Microorganisms

The assessment of minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) is a conventional technique used for the screening of microbial resistance against antibiotics, biocides, and contaminants such as heavy metals. However, as part of our ongoing work, we have observed biases associated with using traditional liquid MIC method to screen microbial heavy metal resistance, including both bacterial and fungal strains. Specifically, the addition of uranium into synthetic media causes immediate precipitation prior to the initiation of microbial growth, thus hampering the optical density measurements, and the obtained MIC values are thus flawed and inaccurate. To address this discrepancy, we report the optimization and development of a serial-dilution-based MIC method conducted on solid growth media supplemented with uranium, which is more accurate, relative to the testing of MICs performed in liquid cultures. Notably, we report on the efficacy of this method to screen not only bacteria that are resistant to uranium but also demonstrate the successful application to yeast and fungal isolates, for their ability to resist uranium, is more accurate and sensitive relative to the liquid method. We believe that this newly developed method to screen heavy metal resistance, such as uranium, is far superior to the existing liquid MIC method and propose replacing the liquid assay with the solid plate MIC reported herein.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Fast, Two-dimensional Gaussian Process Method Based on Celerite: Applications to Transiting Exoplanet Discovery and Characterization

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonly used as a model of stochastic variability in astrophysical time series. In particular, GPs are frequently employed to account for correlated stellar variability in planetary transit light curves. The efficient application of GPs to light curves containing thousands to tens of thousands of data points has been made possible by recent advances in GP methods, including the celerite method. Here we present an extension of the celerite method to two input dimensions where, typically, the second dimension is small. This method scales linearly with the total number of data points when the noise in each large dimension is proportional to the same celerite kernel and only the amplitude of the correlated noise varies in the second dimension. We demonstrate the application of this method to the problem of measuring precise transit parameters from multiwavelength light curves and show that it has the potential to improve transit parameters measurements by orders of magnitude. Applications of this method include transit spectroscopy and exomoon detection, as well a broader set of astronomical problems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗