Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Measurement uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Application of Hybrid K-Edge Densitometry in Reprocessing Facilities

During reprocessing operations, accurately determining the elemental concentrations of uranium and plutonium is critical for nuclear security. Reprocessing facilities processes hundreds of tons of nuclear material annually, requiring accurate measurements to ensure effective nuclear material control and accountability. Hybrid K-edge densitometry (HKED) system combines K-edge absorption densitometry with x-ray fluorescence to measure actinide elemental concentrations with a low uncertainty. This system uses high-purity germanium gamma-ray detectors and advanced signal processing equipment to detect x-ray accurately. This document provides guidance on how to achieve effective performance from an HKED system for measuring uranium and plutonium concentrations in reprocessing facilities. It includes best practices for the setup and operation of an HKED system, while highlighting factors influencing uncertainties.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Round Robin Measurements of Molten Salt Properties for LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK) and NaCl-KCl Mixtures

The development, operation, and regulation of nuclear reactors that utilize molten salts as fuel or as heat transfer media require knowledge of the thermal properties of the salt systems and quantification of the corresponding uncertainties. Knowledge of molten salt properties is also necessary for applications in material synthesis, processing, separations, solar thermal power generation, and energy storage. A round robin was conducted with national laboratory and university participants from twenty-one laboratories in five countries to compare property measurements, to better understand uncertainties, and to identify possible best practices. Two salt mixtures, each from a common batch, were distributed to participants for evaluation: equimolar NaCl-KCl and 45.0LiF-13.7NaF-41.3KF mol % (FLiNaK). Measurements were performed to determine the major constituent composition, oxygen content, density, thermal expansivity, melting point, and thermal conductivity. Error analysis was performed on each measurement for uncertainty quantification for each type of property that was explored. Finally, the resulting discussion of the methodologies used in this work is meant to lay the groundwork for the development of standard methods and reference materials for future high-temperature property measurements on halide melts.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Inference for Integrating Yarrowia lipolytica Multiomics Datasets with Metabolic Modeling

Optimizing the metabolism of microbial cell factories for yields and titers is a critical step for economically viable production of bioproducts and biofuels. In this process, tuning the expression of individual enzymes to obtain the desired pathway flux is a challenging step, in which data from separate multiomics techniques must be integrated with existing biological knowledge to determine where changes should be made. Following a design-build-test-learn strategy, building on recent advances in Bayesian metabolic control analysis, we identify in this work key enzymes in the oleaginous yeast Yarrowia lipolytica that correlate with the production of itaconate by integrating a metabolic model with multiomics measurements. To this extent, we quantify the uncertainty for a variety of key parameters, known as flux control coefficients (FCCs), needed to improve the bioproduction of target metabolites and statistically obtain key correlations between the measured enzymes and boundary flux. Based on the top five significant FCCs and five correlated enzymes, our results show phosphoglycerate mutase, acetyl-CoA synthetase (ACSm), carbonic anhydrase (HCO3E), pyrophosphatase (PPAm), and homoserine dehydrogenase (HSDxi) enzymes in rate-limiting reactions that can lead to increased itaconic acid production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of nEXO to 136 Xe charged-current interactions: Background-free searches for solar neutrinos and fermionic dark matter

We study the sensitivity of nEXO to solar neutrino charged-current interactions, 𝜈 𝑒 + 136 Xe → 136 Cs*+𝑒 − , as well as analogous interactions predicted by models of fermionic dark matter. Due to the recently observed low-lying isomeric states of 136 Cs, these interactions will create a time-delayed coincident signal observable in the scintillation channel. Here we develop a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation emission, propagation, and detection in the nEXO detector to model these signals under different assumptions about the timing resolution of the photosensor readout. We show this correlated signal can be used to achieve background discrimination on the order of 10 −9 , enabling nEXO to make background-free measurements of solar neutrinos above the reaction threshold of 0.668 MeV. We project that nEXO could measure the flux of neutrinos from the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycle with a statistical uncertainty of 25%, thus contributing a novel and competitive measurement toward addressing the solar metallicity problem. Additionally, nEXO could measure the mean energy of the 7 Be neutrinos with a precision of 𝜎 ≤ 1.5 keV and could determine the survival probability of 7 Be and pep solar 𝜈𝑒 with precision comparable to the state of the art. These quantities are sensitive to the Sun’s core temperature and to nonstandard neutrino interactions, respectively. Here, the strong background suppression would allow nEXO to search for charged-current interactions of fermionic dark matter in the mass range 𝑚 𝜒 = 0.668–7 MeV with a sensitivity up to three orders of magnitude better than current limits.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the helicity asymmetry $${\mathbb {E}}$$ for the $$\vec {\gamma }\vec {p} \rightarrow p \pi ^0$$ reaction in the resonance region: The CLAS Collaboration

Abstract The double-spin-polarization observable $${\mathbb {E}}$$ E for $$\vec {\gamma }\vec {p}\rightarrow p\pi ^0$$ γ → p → → p π 0 has been measured with the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) at photon beam energies $$E_\gamma $$ E γ from 0.367 to $$2.173~\textrm{GeV}$$ 2.173 GeV (corresponding to center-of-mass energies from 1.240 to $$2.200~\textrm{GeV}$$ 2.200 GeV ) for pion center-of-mass angles, $$\cos \theta _{\pi ^0}^{c.m.}$$ cos θ π 0 c . m . , between $$-$$ - 0.86 and 0.82. These new CLAS measurements cover a broader energy range and have smaller uncertainties compared to previous CBELSA data and provide an important independent check on systematics. These measurements are compared to predictions as well as new global fits from The George Washington University, Mainz, and Bonn-Gatchina groups. Their inclusion in multipole analyses will allow us to refine our understanding of the single-pion production contribution to the Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn sum rule and improve the determination of resonance properties, which will be presented in a future publication.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmark of the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) Component Critical Configurations

Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) was a prototype for the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Kilopower Program. KRUSTY has a highly enriched uranium–molybdenum alloy (with 7.65 wt% molybdenum) annular core reflected by beryllium oxide with an outer stainless steel shield. Five configurations from the experimental campaign were chosen to be evaluated as benchmark cases. Uncertainties were evaluated in five categories: (1) criticality measurement, (2) mass and density, (3) dimensions, (4) material compositions, and (5) positioning. The largest contribution to the overall uncertainty in each case was from the radial alignment of the movable platen. A simplified model was created to increase computational efficiency, and an average bias of –16 pcm was calculated due to the simplifications. Sample calculations were completed for each case using MCNP6.2, COG, and MC21, all with ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data. For MCNP6.2, the average difference (absolute value) between the calculated and experimental $k_{eff}$ for the five configurations was 14 pcm for both the detailed and the simplified models. The $k_{eff}$ results from all three codes are within 1σ of the benchmark values. KRUSTY’s value as a benchmark is due to its sensitivity to beryllium and molybdenum. For beryllium, KRUSTY adds an 18th benchmark with a total cross-section sensitivity greater than 0.05%/%/(unit lethargy). For molybdenum, KRUSTY adds a 9th benchmark with a total cross-section sensitivity greater than 0.004%/%/(unit lethargy).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Multi-Proton Zero Pion Final States with the NuMI Neutrino Beam at ICARUS

Evidence suggests that charge-parity (CP) symmetry, or the principle that matter and antimatter must obey the same physics, might be violated in neutrino flavor mixing. The next-generation long-baseline experiment DUNE is designed to confirm whether or not neutrinos oscillate differently from antineutrinos. The magnitude of systematic uncertainties contributing to current long-baseline oscillation measurements, if left unimproved, is enough to jeopardize DUNE's ability to measure CP violation. Neutrino cross section measurements on argon targets are an essential input for improving neutrino interaction modelling and reducing the systematic uncertainties before DUNE turns on. The ICARUS experiment at Fermilab is well suited perform such measurements due to the NuMI neutrino beam providing neutrinos at the same energy as DUNE's first oscillation maximum. This work presents a measurement of muon neutrino charged-current interactions with multiple energetic protons and zero final state mesons in ICARUS. Multi-proton topologies are sensitive to contributions from two-particle two hole effects as well as resonant pion production and subsequent absorption via final state interactions (FSI) within the argon nucleus. Single-differential cross sections are measured in lab-frame opening angles and transverse kinematic imbalance variables, characterizing the initial sate momentum sharing between correlated nucleons and strength of FSI in argon.

Smedley, John [Rochester U.] (ORCID:00000002848611↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty study of copper-reflected integral experiments [Slides]

This presentation touches on reducing uncertainties in intermediate-energy actinide nuclear data and this continues to be a high priority for many applications. The goal of PARADIGM (PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements): accelerate efforts to reduce biases and uncertainties in nuclear data through improvements to the nuclear data pipeline. This presentation includes integral experiments and a summarization of existing copper nuclear data.

Cu63↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Matrix Elements for Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay

Neutrinoless double-beta decay ($0\nu\beta\beta$) is a rare hypothesised process that, if discovered, would establish that the neutrino is Majorana, that is, it is its own antiparticle. Interpretation of experimental results relies on knowledge of nuclear matrix elements, whose large model uncertainty is the limiting factor in comparing measured (bounds on) half-lives to the neutrino mass. Nuclear effective field theory and lattice QCD have the potential to compute these matrix elements with better control over uncertainties, enhancing the discovery potential of next-generation $0\nu\beta\beta$ experiments. This work will survey various lattice QCD double-beta decay calculations and discuss their implications.

Grebe, Anthony V. [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003103201↗
DOE OSTI2020

Theoretical H + O 3 rate coefficients from ring polymer molecular dynamics on an accurate global potential energy surface: assessing experimental uncertainties

Thermal rate coefficients and kinetic isotope effects have been calculated for an important atmospheric reaction H/D + O 3 → OH/OD + O2 based on an accurate permutation invariant polynomial-neural network potential energy surface, using ring polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD), quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) and variational transition-state theory (VTST) with multidimensional tunneling. The RPMD approach yielded results that are generally in better agreement with experimental rate coefficients than the VTST and QCT ones, especially at low temperatures, attributable to its capacity to capture quantum effects such as tunneling and zero-point energy. Additionally, the theoretical results support one group of existing experiments over the other. In addition, rate coefficients for the D + O 3 → OD + O 2 reaction are also reported using the same methods, which will allow a stringent assessment of future experimental measurements, thus helping to reduce the uncertainty in the recommended rate coefficients of this reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quasi-isentropic compression of an additively manufactured aluminum alloy to 14.8 GPa

We uniaxially and shocklessly compressed an additively manufactured aluminum alloy, laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) AlSi10Mg, to peak stresses ranging from 4.4 to 14.8 GPa at peak strain rates on the order of [Formula: see text] via a series of magnetic loading experiments to measure the principal isentrope, yield strength, and shear modulus as a function of material orientation and applied stress. We did not observe significant anisotropy in any of the measured quantities. We found that the principal isentrope, within the uncertainty and up to our peak stress, overlaps the material’s Hugoniot. We measured yield strengths and shear moduli ranging from 0.28 to 0.81 GPa and 36 to 52 GPa, respectively. Our results indicate that LPBF AlSi10Mg behaves similarly to wrought Al alloys under quasi-isentropic compression.

Brown, Nathan P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗
DOE OSTI2021

Compact spectroscopy of keV to MeV X-rays from a laser wakefield accelerator

We reconstruct spectra of secondary X-rays from a tunable 250–350 MeV laser wakefield electron accelerator from single-shot X-ray depth-energy measurements in a compact (7.5 × 7.5 × 15 cm), modular X-ray calorimeter made of alternating layers of absorbing materials and imaging plates. X-rays range from few-keV betatron to few-MeV inverse Compton to > 100 MeV bremsstrahlung emission, and are characterized both individually and in mixtures. Geant4 simulations of energy deposition of single-energy X-rays in the stack generate an energy-vs-depth response matrix for a given stack configuration. An iterative reconstruction algorithm based on analytic models of betatron, inverse Compton and bremsstrahlung photon energy distributions then unfolds X-ray spectra, typically within a minute. We discuss uncertainties, limitations and extensions of both measurement and reconstruction methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon in the Standard Model

We review the present status of the Standard Model calculation of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. This is performed in a perturbative expansion in the fine-structure constant α and is broken down into pure QED, electroweak, and hadronic contributions. The pure QED contribution is by far the largest and has been evaluated up to and including O(α 5 ) with negligible numerical uncertainty. The electroweak contribution is suppressed by (m μ / M W ) 2 and only shows up at the level of the seventh significant digit. It has been evaluated up to two loops and is known to better than one percent. Hadronic contributions are the most difficult to calculate and are responsible for almost all of the theoretical uncertainty. The leading hadronic contribution appears at O(α 2 ) and is due to hadronic vacuum polarization, whereas at O(α 3 ) the hadronic light-by-light scattering contribution appears. Given the low characteristic scale of this observable, these contributions have to be calculated with nonperturbative methods, in particular, dispersion relations and the lattice approach to QCD. The largest part of this review is dedicated to a detailed account of recent efforts to improve the calculation of these two contributions with either a data-driven, dispersive approach, or a first- principle, lattice-QCD approach. The final result reads $a$$^{SM}_{μ}$ = 116 591 810(43) × 10 −11 and is smaller than the Brookhaven measurement by 3.7σ. The experimental uncertainty will soon be reduced by up to a factor four by the new experiment currently running at Fermilab, and also by the future J-PARC experiment. Furthermore, this and the prospects to further reduce the theoretical uncertainty in the near future – which are also discussed here – make this quantity one of the most promising places to look for evidence of new physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

InterCarb: A Community Effort to Improve Interlaboratory Standardization of the Carbonate Clumped Isotope Thermometer Using Carbonate Standards

Abstract Increased use and improved methodology of carbonate clumped isotope thermometry has greatly enhanced our ability to interrogate a suite of Earth‐system processes. However, interlaboratory discrepancies in quantifying carbonate clumped isotope (Δ 47 ) measurements persist, and their specific sources remain unclear. To address interlaboratory differences, we first provide consensus values from the clumped isotope community for four carbonate standards relative to heated and equilibrated gases with 1,819 individual analyses from 10 laboratories. Then we analyzed the four carbonate standards along with three additional standards, spanning a broad range of δ 47 and Δ 47 values, for a total of 5,329 analyses on 25 individual mass spectrometers from 22 different laboratories. Treating three of the materials as known standards and the other four as unknowns, we find that the use of carbonate reference materials is a robust method for standardization that yields interlaboratory discrepancies entirely consistent with intralaboratory analytical uncertainties. Carbonate reference materials, along with measurement and data processing practices described herein, provide the carbonate clumped isotope community with a robust approach to achieve interlaboratory agreement as we continue to use and improve this powerful geochemical tool. We propose that carbonate clumped isotope data normalized to the carbonate reference materials described in this publication should be reported as Δ 47 (I‐CDES) values for Intercarb‐Carbon Dioxide Equilibrium Scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction

Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗