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At least 847 records · Page 47

Space system operations and support cost analysis using Markov chains

This paper evaluates the use of Markov chain process in probabilistic life cycle cost analysis and suggests further uses of the process as a design aid tool. A methodology is developed for estimating operations and support cost and expected life for reusable space transportation systems. Application of the methodology is demonstrated for the case of a hypothetical space transportation vehicle. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to explore the effects of uncertainty in key model inputs.

Unal, Resit↗

Characterization of Structural Vibration and Acoustic Radiation with a Beam-Array Doppler Vibrometer

This paper discusses the operational principles of an assembly of two opto-electronic modules with their configurations based on a Laser-Array Doppler Vibrometer (LADV) and a Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor (SHWFS). Both sensors can operate concurrently providing complementary data. While the SHWFS is a well-established system that enables low-bandwidth spatio-temporal characterization of aerodynamic turbulence, the LADV technology allows real-time detection of structural vibrations and associated acoustic radiation fields. Practical examples are shown of the instruments’ capabilities, focusing on the ability to simultaneously capture, visualize and quantitatively characterize full-field non-stationary structural dynamics and unsteady sound fields or transient flow fields around ground test facility airframe models or other structures of interest. The parallel multi-channel architecture of the LADV system enables synchronous detection and temporal correlation of indicators related to the spatio-temporal vibration of the structure under inspection. This unique feature is essential for real time detection and categorization of the structural and acoustic dynamics of transient events. For the present study, the LADV data have been successfully compared with measurements obtained with the SHWFS in the wake of a subsonic scale-model airfoil. The ability of the LADV-SHWFS coupled measurements to perform real time non-intrusive evaluation and characterization of dynamic processes at operationally relevant bandwidths should provide a deeper insight into the complex structural dynamics that contribute to radiated sound fields.

Vladimir B Markov↗

A numerical model of the Uranian dust rings

The present numerical simulations of the Uranian rings discovered by Voyager 2 indicate that they may be the visible component of low optical depth moonlet belts made up of 10 to 100,000 cm objects; these objects would serve as the sources of dust, via both micrometeoroid bombardment and the collisional release of ejecta. It is proposed that the dust bands are generated by continuous ejection and reabsorption of micron-scale regolith material within the hypothesized moolet belts, and it is noted that numerical simulations of such a system in a Markov-chain formalism can reproduce Uranian dust ring characteristics.

Colwell, Joshua E.↗

Quantum Algorithm for High Energy Physics Simulations

Simulating quantum field theories is a flagship application of quantum computing. However, calculating experimentally relevant high energy scattering amplitudes entirely on a quantum computer is prohibitively difficult. It is well known that such high energy scattering processes can be factored into pieces that can be computed using well established perturbative techniques, and pieces which currently have to be simulated using classical Markov chain algorithms. These classical Markov chain simulation approaches work well to capture many of the salient features, but cannot capture all quantum effects. To exploit quantum resources in the most efficient way, we introduce a new paradigm for quantum algorithms in field theories. This approach uses quantum computers only for those parts of the problem which are not computable using existing techniques. In particular, we develop a polynomial time quantum final state shower that accurately models the effects of intermediate spin states similar to those present in high energy electroweak showers with a global evolution variable. The algorithm is explicitly demonstrated for a simplified quantum field theory on a quantum computer.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Trustworthy Physics-Informed Deep Learning for Predictive Scientific Computing

This project has developed powerful trustworthy physics-informed deep learning (TPiDL) models and methods to fundamentally enhance the scale and power of computational modeling in the scientific and engineering domains. Deep learning (DL) has radically advanced the state-of-the-art in machine learning, computer vision, natural language processing, and also scientific computing. Nevertheless, progress has been driven almost entirely by empirical observations, hacks, and tricks. Under the support of this project, the graph operator learning tools and advanced trustworthy physical informed neural networks have been developed. In addition, stochastic gradient replica-exchange Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms have been designed to quantify the uncertainties and speed up the training of large-scale neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bidirectional Classical Stochastic Processes with Measurements and Feedback

A measurement on a quantum system is said to cause the "collapse" of the quantum state vector or density matrix. An analogous collapse occurs with measurements on a classical stochastic process. This paper addresses the question of describing the response of a classical stochastic process when there is feedback from the output of a measurement to the input, and is intended to give a model for quantum-mechanical processes that occur along a space-like reaction coordinate. The classical system can be thought of in physical terms as two counterflowing probability streams, which stochastically exchange probability currents in a way that the net probability current, and hence the overall probability, suitably interpreted, is conserved. The proposed formalism extends the . mathematics of those stochastic processes describable with linear, single-step, unidirectional transition probabilities, known as Markov chains and stochastic matrices. It is shown that a certain rearrangement and combination of the input and output of two stochastic matrices of the same order yields another matrix of the same type. Each measurement causes the partial collapse of the probability current distribution in the midst of such a process, giving rise to calculable, but non-Markov, values for the ensuing modification of the system's output probability distribution. The paper concludes with an analysis of a classical probabilistic version of the so-called grandfather paradox.

Hahne, G. E.↗

A Robust Approach to Sequential Information Theoretic Planning

In many sequential planning applications a natural approach to generating high quality plans is to maximize an information reward such as mutual information (MI). Unfortunately, MI lacks a closed form in all but trivial models, and so must be estimated. In applications where the cost of plan execution is expensive, one desires planning estimates which admit theoretical guarantees. Through the use of robust M-estimators we obtain bounds on absolute deviation of estimated MI. Moreover, we propose a sequential algorithm which integrates inference and planning by maximally reusing particles in each stage. We validate the utility of using robust estimators in the sequential approach on a Gaussian Markov Random Field wherein information measures have a closed form. Lastly, we demonstrate the benefits of our integrated approach in the context of sequential experiment design for inferring causal regulatory networks from gene expression levels. Here, our method shows improvements over a recent method which selects intervention experiments based on the same MI objective.

Zheng, Sue↗

Universal tripartite entanglement signature of ungappable edge states

Gapped two-dimensional topological phases can feature ungappable edge states which are robust even in the absence of protecting symmetries. In this Letter we argue that a multipartite entanglement measure recently proposed in the context of holography, the Markov gap, provides a universal diagnostic of ungappable edge states. Defined as a difference of the reflected entropy and mutual information h(A:B)=S R (A:B)-I(A:B) between two parties, we argue that for A,B being adjacent subregions in the bulk h=$\frac{c+}{3}$ ln 2, where c + is the minimal total central charge of the boundary theory. As evidence, we prove that h=0 for string-net models and numerically verify that h=$\frac{|C|}{3}$ ln 2 for a Chern-C insulator. Our Letter establishes a unique bulk entanglement criteria for the presence of a conformal field theory on the boundary.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

On the Use of Kronecker Operators for the Solution of Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

We discuss how to describe the Markov chain underlying a generalized stochastic Petri net using Kronecker operators on smaller matrices. We extend previous approaches by allowing both an extensive type of marking-dependent behavior for the transitions and the presence of immediate synchronizations. The derivation of the results is thoroughly formalized, including the use of Kronecker operators in the treatment of the vanishing markings and the computation of impulse-based reward measures. We use our techniques to analyze a model whose solution using conventional methods would fail because of the state-space explosion. In the conclusion, we point out ideas to parallelize our approach.

Ciardo, Gianfranco↗

Variance and bias computations for improved modal identification using ERA/DC

Variance and bias confidence criteria were recently developed for the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) identification technique. These criteria are extended for the modified version of ERA based on data correlation, ERA/DC, and also for the Q-Markov cover algorithm. The importance and usefulness of the variance and bias information are demonstrated in numerical studies. The criteria are shown to be very effective not only by indicating the accuracy of the identification results, especially in terms of confidence intervals, but also by helping the ERA user to obtain better results by seeing the effect of changing the sample time, adjusting the Hankel matrix dimension, choosing how many singular values to retain, deciding the model order, etc.

Longman, Richard W.↗

Adaptive Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for Distribution System Cyber Attack Defense With High Penetration of DERs

With grid modernization, smart inverters are increasingly used to execute advanced controls for distribution network reliability. However, this also increases the cyber-attack space. Here this paper focuses on the defense approaches to restore the system to normal operation circumstances in the presence of cyber-attacks. A unique deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method is developed to minimize voltage violations and reduce power losses for impacted feeders. The defense problem is reformulated as a Markov decision-making process to dynamically control DERs while minimizing load shedding. This is achieved via an improved soft actor-critic (SAC)-based DRL algorithm, which can govern DER set points and load-shedding scenarios in discrete and continuous modes via the auto-tune entropy and Gaussian policy features. Numerical comparison results on the modified IEEE 123-node system with other control approaches, such as Volt-VAR (VV), Volt-Watt (VW), and model predictive control (MPC) show that the proposed method can eliminate voltage violations and provide feasible control actions that perform complete mitigation of cyber-threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Extensions to the classical calculation of the effect of mutual shadowing in diffuse reflection

The classical method for accounting for the mutual shadowing among closely packed particles in multiple scattering calculations is extended in the following ways. (1) By modeling the particle distribution by a Poisson process with a varying density parameter, a 'Van der Waals' type approximation allows extension to a greater fractional volume density, D. In this case it is only required that D squared be much less than 1 instead of D being much less than 1. (2) In the case that the particle distribution is not uniform the classical calculation may be weighted by the pair correlation function of the distribution. (3) The use of the Markov chain formalism for radiative transfer allows inclusion of the effect of shadowing for two orders of scattering. For conditions such as might apply in Saturn's rings, the inclusion of this effect makes less than a 0.1% difference in the calculated phase curves, compared to previous calculations which have included shadowing only in the first scattering. The latter are thus shown to be quite accurate.

Esposito, L. W.↗

Reliability Analysis for AFTI-F16 SRFCS Using ASSIST and SURE

This paper reports the results of a study on reliability analysis of an AFTI-16 Self-Repairing Flight Control System (SRFCS) using software tools SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator and ASSIST (Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool). The purpose of the study is to investigate the potential utility of the software tools in the ongoing effort of the NASA Aviation Safety Program, where the class of systems must be extended beyond the originally intended serving class of electronic digital processors. The study concludes that SURE and ASSIST are applicable to reliability, analysis of flight control systems. They are especially efficient for sensitivity analysis that quantifies the dependence of system reliability on model parameters. The study also confirms an earlier finding on the dominant role of a parameter called a failure coverage. The paper will remark on issues related to the improvement of coverage and the optimization of redundancy level.

Wu, N. Eva↗

Estimating Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Abundance using Simulation-Based Inference

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological constraints from a simplified galaxy cluster observation analysis. Using data generated from the Quijote simulation suite and analytical models, we train a machine learning algorithm to learn the probability function between cosmological parameters and the possible galaxy cluster observables. The posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters at a given observation is then obtained by sampling the predictions from the trained algorithm. Our results show that the SBI method can successfully recover the truth values of the cosmological parameters within the 2σ limit for this simplified galaxy cluster analysis, and acquires similar posterior constraints obtained with a likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the current state-of the-art method used in similar cosmological studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A technique for optimal temperature estimation for modeling sunrise/sunset thermal snap disturbance torque

A predictive temperature estimation technique which can be used to drive a model of the Sunrise/Sunset thermal 'snap' disturbance torque experienced by low Earth orbiting spacecraft is described. The twice per orbit impulsive disturbance torque is attributed to vehicle passage in and out of the Earth's shadow cone (umbra), during which large flexible appendages undergo rapidly changing thermal conditions. Flexible members, in particular solar arrays, experience rapid cooling during umbra entrance (Sunset) and rapid heating during exit (Sunrise). The thermal 'snap' phenomena has been observed during normal on-orbit operations of both the LANDSAT-4 satellite and the Communications Technology Satellite (CTS). Thermal 'snap' has also been predicted to be a dominant source of error for the TOPEX satellite. The fundamental equations used to model the Sunrise/Sunset thermal 'snap' disturbance torque for a typical solar array like structure will be described. For this derivation the array is assumed to be a thin, cantilevered beam. The time varying thermal gradient is shown to be the driving force behind predicting the thermal 'snap' disturbance torque and therefore motivates the need for accurate estimates of temperature. The development of a technique to optimally estimate appendage surface temperature is highlighted. The objective analysis method used is structured on the Gauss-Markov Theorem and provides an optimal temperature estimate at a prescribed location given data from a distributed thermal sensor network. The optimally estimated surface temperatures could then be used to compute the thermal gradient across the body. The estimation technique is demonstrated using a typical satellite solar array.

Zimbelman, D. F.↗

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Photoproduction of the Σ + hyperon using linearly polarized photons with CLAS

Measurements of the polarization observables Σ, P, T, O x , O z for the reaction $\vec{γ}$ p → $K^0_S$Σ + using a linearly polarized photon beam of energy 1.1 to 2.1 GeV are reported. The measured data provide information on a channel that has not been studied extensively, but is required for a full coupled-channel analysis in the nucleon resonance region. Observables have been simultaneously extracted using likelihood sampling with a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo process. Angular distributions in bins of photon energy E γ are produced for each polarization observable. T, O x , and O z are first time measurements of these observables in this reaction. The extraction of Σ extends the energy range beyond a previous measurement. The measurement of P, the recoil polarization, is consistent with previous measurements. The measured data are shown to be significant enough to affect the estimation of the nucleon resonance parameters when fitted within a coupled-channels model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗