SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Machine Learning in Network Science”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Searching for Clues for a Matter Dominated Universe in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers

Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) represent one of the most widely utilized neutrino detection techniques in neutrino experiments, for instance, in the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program and the future large-scale LArTPC: Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). The high-end technique, facilitating excellent spatial and calorimetric reconstruction resolution, also enables testing exotic Beyond Standard Model (BSM) theories, such as baryon number violation (BNV) processes (e.g., proton-decay, neutron-antineutron oscillation). At the same time, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have demonstrated their ubiquitous use in recent decades; ML techniques have also become some of the most powerful tools in high-energy physics (HEP) analyses. Furthermore, the development of algorithms to cater to the needs of problems in HEP (i.e., triggering, reconstruction, improving sensitivity, etc.) has also become an active area of research. By developing a combined approach using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) techniques, the sensitivity of neutron-antineutron oscillation in DUNE is evaluated for a projected exposure of 400kton·years. Additionally, to meet the triggering requirement to select such rare events in DUNE, such a search is only supported with highly efficient self-triggering algorithms. An ML-based self-triggering scheme for large-scale LArTPCs, such as DUNE, is also developed with the intention of implementation on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The ML-based approach for searching for neutron-antineutron oscillation can be demonstrated and validated on the current LArTPC MicroBooNE. The analysis in MicroBooNE represents the first-ever search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in a LArTPC. DUNE's projected 90% C.L. sensitivity to the neutron antineutron oscillation lifetime is 6.45×10³² years, assuming 1.327×10³⁵ neutron·years, equivalent to 10 years of DUNE far detector exposure (400kton·years). For MicroBooNE, assuming 372 seconds of exposure (equivalent to 3.13×10³⁶ neutron·years), the 90% C.L. lifetime sensitivity is found at 3.07×10²⁵ yrs, after accounting for Monte-Carlo statistical uncertainty and systematic uncertainty from detector effects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Active learning of ternary alloy structures and energies

Abstract Machine learning models with uncertainty quantification have recently emerged as attractive tools to accelerate the navigation of catalyst design spaces in a data-efficient manner. Here, we combine active learning with a dropout graph convolutional network (dGCN) as a surrogate model to explore the complex materials space of high-entropy alloys (HEAs). We train the dGCN on the formation energies of disordered binary alloy structures in the Pd-Pt-Sn ternary alloy system and improve predictions on ternary structures by performing reduced optimization of the formation free energy, the target property that determines HEA stability, over ensembles of ternary structures constructed based on two coordinate systems: (a) a physics-informed ternary composition space, and (b) data-driven coordinates discovered by the Diffusion Maps manifold learning scheme. Both reduced optimization techniques improve predictions of the formation free energy in the ternary alloy space with a significantly reduced number of DFT calculations compared to a high-fidelity model. The physics-based scheme converges to the target property in a manner akin to a depth-first strategy, whereas the data-driven scheme appears more akin to a breadth-first approach. Both sampling schemes, coupled with our acquisition function, successfully exploit a database of DFT-calculated binary alloy structures and energies, augmented with a relatively small number of ternary alloy calculations, to identify stable ternary HEA compositions and structures. This generalized framework can be extended to incorporate more complex bulk and surface structural motifs, and the results demonstrate that significant dimensionality reduction is possible in thermodynamic sampling problems when suitable active learning schemes are employed.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

GW-PINN: A deep learning algorithm for solving groundwater flow equations

Machine learning methods provide new perspective for more convenient and efficient prediction of groundwater flow. In this study, a deep learning method “GW-PINN” without labeled data for solving groundwater flow equations with wells was proposed. GW-PINN takes the physics inform neural network (PINN) as the backbone and uses either the hard or soft constraint in the loss function for training. A locally refined sampling strategy (LRS) is adopted to generate the consistent spatial sampling points for problems with strong hydraulic head change, and then combined with an appropriate temporal sampling scheme to obtain the final spatial-temporal sampling points. A snowball-style two-stage training strategy by dividing the temporal domain into two subdomains is designed to decrease the sampling points. Five cases were designed to test the training performance of GW-PINN under different sampling strategies and two constraints. The predicted results of GW-PINN were compared with MODFLOW and the analytical solution. The results demonstrate that GW-PINN possesses strong ability in capturing the hydraulic head change for both confined and un-confined aquifers. The hard constraint owns more robust learning ability than the soft constraint. The LRS strategy can generate more accurate results with much fewer sampling points than traditional sampling strategies, and the snowball-style two-stage training strategy is significantly efficient for problems with the drastic change of hydraulic head. Additionally, the application of GW-PINN as a surrogate model for parameterized groundwater flow equations is illustrated. This study provides an option tool for efficient groundwater flow simulation, especially for those with local refinements are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-scarce surrogate modeling of shock-induced pore collapse process

Understanding the mechanisms of shock-induced pore collapse is of great interest in various disciplines in sciences and engineering, including materials science, biological sciences, and geophysics. However, numerical modeling of the complex pore collapse processes can be costly. To this end, a strong need exists to develop surrogate models for generating economic predictions of pore collapse processes. Here, in this work, we study the use of a data-driven reduced-order model, namely dynamic mode decomposition, and a deep generative model, namely conditional generative adversarial networks, to resemble the numerical simulations of the pore collapse process at representative training shock pressures. Since the simulations are expensive, the training data are scarce, which makes training an accurate surrogate model challenging. To overcome the difficulties posed by the complex physics phenomena, we make several crucial treatments to the plain original form of the methods to increase the capability of approximating and predicting the dynamics. In particular, physics information is used as indicators or conditional inputs to guide the prediction. In realizing these methods, the training of each dynamic mode composition model takes only around 30 s on CPU. In contrast, training a generative adversarial network model takes 8 h on GPU. Moreover, using dynamic mode decomposition, the final-time relative error is around 0.3% in the reproductive cases. We also demonstrate the predictive power of the methods at unseen testing shock pressures, where the error ranges from 1.3 to 5% in the interpolatory cases and 8 to 9% in extrapolatory cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement With Georgetown University Report: National Institutes of Health, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Clinical and Translational Science Award

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is participating with Georgetown University (GU) as a subrecipient in response to the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) (U54 Clinical Trial Optional) funding opportunity announcement. This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement is put in to place to facilitate the development and implementation of clinical interventions that demonstrably improve human health is currently a complex, recursive, and inefficient process that leads to delays of years or decades before discoveries in biomedical research result in health benefits for patients and communities. NCATS conducts and supports research in the science of translation, to discover the mechanistic and operational principles of the intervention development and dissemination process, thereby providing the scientific foundation for improvements in translational efficiency that will accelerate the realization of interventions that improve human health. Under NCATS’ leadership, the CTSA Program supports a national network of medical research institutions called hubs. GU is the lead institution in one of the NIH hubs that was created as a result of a previous NIH CTSA. The missions of the GU have historically included the advancement of health through research in the clinical and biomedical sciences, the education of future leaders in medical and nursing practice and academia, and the provision of compassionate and scientifically competent patient care and service to the Washington, DC community and the nation. GU is the lead institution for the Georgetown-Howard Universities Center for Clinical and Translational Science (GHUCCTS), a multi-institutional partnership of medical research institutions forged from a desire to promote clinical research and translational science. Through multiple collaborations among these institutions, GHUCCTS is transforming clinical research and translational science in order to bring new scientific advances to health care. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is the Department of Energy's (DOE) largest science and energy laboratory. Managed since April 2000 by a partnership of the University of Tennessee and Battelle, ORNL was established in 1943 as a part of the secret Manhattan Project to pioneer a method for producing and separating plutonium. During the 1950s and 1960s, ORNL became an international center for the study of nuclear energy and related research in the physical and life sciences. With the creation of DOE in the 1970s, ORNL's mission broadened to include a variety of energy technologies and strategies. Today the laboratory supports the nation with a peacetime science and technology mission that is just as important as, but very different from, its role during the Manhattan Project. ORNL is home to the world's premier center for high performance supercomputing to enable scientific discovery. ORNL has extensive expertise in various areas of computer science that are uniquely situated to support GU. Additionally, ORNL’s leading computational user facilities present a unique opportunity to leverage the largest scale machines for open science in support of the stated mission of the NCATS CTSA. ORNL's partnership with GU will offer unparalleled opportunity in data analytics, deep-learning, artificial intelligence, and urban dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning pipeline for denoising low signal-to-noise ratio and out-of-distribution transmission electron microscopy datasets

High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) is crucial for observing material’s structural and morphological evolution at Angstrom scales, but the electron beam can alter these processes. Devices such as CMOS-based direct-electron detectors operating in electron-counting mode can be utilized to substantially reduce the electron dosage. However, the resulting images often lead to a low signal-to-noise ratio, which requires frame integration that sacrifices temporal resolution. Several machine learning (ML) models have been recently developed to successfully denoise HRTEM images. Yet, these models are often computationally expensive, and their inference speeds on GPUs are outpaced by the imaging speed of advanced detectors, precluding in situ analysis. Furthermore, the performance of these denoising models on datasets with imaging conditions that deviate from the training datasets has not been evaluated. To mitigate these gaps, we propose a new self-supervised ML denoising pipeline specifically designed for time-series HRTEM images. This pipeline integrates a blind-spot convolution neural network with pre-processing and post-processing steps, including drift correction and low-pass filtering. Results demonstrate that our model outperforms various other ML and non-ML denoising methods in noise reduction and contrast enhancement, leading to improved visual clarity of atomic features. Additionally, the model is drastically faster than U-Net-based ML models and demonstrates excellent out-of-distribution generalization. The model’s computational inference speed is in the order of milliseconds per image, rendering it suitable for application in in-situ HRTEM experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Argonne Leadership Computing Facility: 2021 Operational Assessment Report

This Operational Assessment Report describes how the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) met or exceeded every one of its goals for calendar year (CY) 2021 as an advanced scientific computing center. In CY 2021, the ALCF operated its production resource, Theta, an Intel-based Cray XC40 system (11.7-petaflops) augmented with 24 NVIDIA DGX A100-based nodes (3.9-petaflops) that supports diverse workloads, integrating data analytics with artificial intelligence (AI) training and learning in a single platform. In 2021, we began deploying Polaris, our newest 40- petaflops system, and augmented this powerful testbed system with an additional 28 nodes to support the integration of real-time experiments and HPC resources. We also deployed our two largest storage systems yet, named Grand and Eagle, that will bring new services to our users and will power data-driven research for years to come. Last year, Theta delivered a total of 20.8 million node-hours to 16 Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) projects and 7.2 million node-hours to ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) projects (32 awarded during the 2020–2021 ALCC year and 17 awarded during the 2021–2022 ALCC year), as well as substantial support to Director’s Discretionary (DD) projects (5.5 million node-hours). As Table ES.1 shows, Theta performed exceptionally well in terms of overall availability (95.1 percent), scheduled availability (99.4 percent), and utilization (98.1 percent; Table 2.1). As of the submission date of this document, ALCF’s user community has published 249 papers in high-quality, peer-reviewed journals and technical proceedings. At the 2021 International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC’21), Argonne researchers won two HPCwire Readers’ Choice Awards and were part of a Gordon Bell Prize finalist team recognized for developing an AI-enabled, multi-resolution simulation framework for studying complex biomolecular machines. Their framework was used to observe the SARS-CoV-2 replication-transcription machinery in action, by directly integrating experimental data. ALCF also provided a comprehensive program of high-performance computing (HPC) support services to help our community make productive use of the facility’s diverse and growing collection of resources. We are now entering the exascale era, with exascale machines being planned for national laboratories across the country, including Aurora at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in 2023. ALCF researchers have been leading and guiding numerous strategic activities that will push the boundaries of what’s possible in computational science and engineering and allow us to deliver science on day one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning elastic constants of multi-component alloys

The present manuscript explores application of machine learning methods for determining elastic constants and other derived mechanical properties of multi-component alloys. Here, a number of machine learning models, including linear regression, neural network and random forest based models, are trained and tested on a dataset of binary alloys generated using density functional theory (DFT) calculations and spanning over a large number of elemental species in the periodic table. Starting with a wide range of simple and easily accessible compositionally-averaged elemental features, a correlation-based feature selection strategy was used to systematically down-select a set of most relevant features towards the prediction of the elasticity tensor components. The true predictive performance and the associated uncertainties of the models were established by testing on unseen data and bootstrapping, respectively. A single and pair-wise feature partial dependence analysis was performed to visualize the average property trends in the multi-dimensional feature space in order to further understand the achieved predictive performance. The utility of the trained model is further demonstrated by obtaining sufficiently accurate yet highly efficient approximations for bulk modulus, Young’s modulus, shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio for alloys beyond the binary space (i.e., two-component alloys) on which the model was originally trained. More importantly, we test and validate the predictive performance of the developed model directly against the experimentally measured elastic constants of technologically relevant multi-component alloys (such as, Ni- and Ti-based alloys). Finally, utility of such a data-enabled route is demonstrated by predicting the possible range of various elastic properties for vast composition space available within the five component Ni-Cr-Fe-Mo-W alloy system in a high-throughput manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Track Seeding and Labelling with Embedded-space Graph Neural Networks

To address the unprecedented scale of HL-LHC data, the Exa.TrkX project is investigating a variety of machine learning approaches to particle track reconstruction. The most promising of these solutions, graph neural networks (GNN), process the event as a graph that connects track measurements (detector hits corresponding to nodes) with candidate line segments between the hits (corresponding to edges). Detector information can be associated with nodes and edges, enabling a GNN to propagate the embedded parameters around the graph and predict node-, edge- and graph-level observables. Previously, message-passing GNNs have shown success in predicting doublet likelihood, and we here report updates on the state-of-the-art architectures for this task. In addition, the Exa.TrkX project has investigated innovations in both graph construction, and embedded representations, in an effort to achieve fully learned end-to-end track finding. Hence, we present a suite of extensions to the original model, with encouraging results for hitgraph classification. In addition, we explore increased performance by constructing graphs from learned representations which contain non-linear metric structure, allowing for efficient clustering and neighborhood queries of data points. We demonstrate how this framework fits in with both traditional clustering pipelines, and GNN approaches. The embedded graphs feed into high-accuracy doublet and triplet classifiers, or can be used as an end-to-end track classifier by clustering in an embedded space. A set of post-processing methods improve performance with knowledge of the detector physics. Finally, we present numerical results on the TrackML particle tracking challenge dataset, where our framework shows favorable results in both seeding and track finding.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of chronic kidney disease progression using recurrent neural network and electronic health records

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive loss in kidney function. Early detection of patients who will progress to late-stage CKD is of paramount importance for patient care. To address this, we develop a pipeline to process longitudinal electronic heath records (EHRs) and construct recurrent neural network (RNN) models to predict CKD progression from stages II/III to stages IV/V. The RNN model generates predictions based on time-series records of patients, including repeated lab tests and other clinical variables. Our investigation reveals that using a single variable, the recorded estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time, the RNN model achieves an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.957 for predicting future CKD progression. When additional clinical variables, such as demographics, vital information, lab test results, and health behaviors, are incorporated, the average AUROC increases to 0.967. In both scenarios, the standard deviation of the AUROC across cross-validation trials is less than 0.01, indicating a stable and high prediction accuracy. Our analysis results demonstrate the proposed RNN model outperforms existing standard approaches, including static and dynamic Cox proportional hazards models, random forest, and LightGBM. The utilization of the RNN model and the time-series data of previous eGFR measurements underscores its potential as a straightforward and effective tool for assessing the clinical risk of CKD patients concerning their disease progression.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Liquid–Vapor Phase Equilibrium in Molten Aluminum Chloride (AlCl 3 ) Enabled by Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Molten salts are promising candidates in numerous clean energy applications, where knowledge of thermophysical properties and vapor pressure across their operating temperature ranges is critical for safe operations. Due to challenges in evaluating these properties using experimental methods, fast and scalable molecular simulations are essential to complement the experimental data. In this study, we developed machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIP) to study the AlCl 3 molten salt across varied thermodynamic conditions (T = 473–613 K and P = 2.7–23.4 bar), which allowed us to predict temperature-surface tension correlations and liquid–vapor phase diagram from direct simulations of two-phase coexistence in this molten salt. Two MLIP architectures, a Kernel-based potential and neural network interatomic potential (NNIP), were considered to benchmark their performance for AlCl 3 molten salt using experimental structure and density values. The NNIP potential employed in two-phase equilibrium simulations yields the critical temperature and critical density of AlCl 3 that are within 10 K (∼3%) and 0.03 g/cm 3 (∼7%) of the reported experimental values. An accurate correlation between temperature and viscosities is obtained as well. In doing so, we report that the inclusion of low-density configurations in their training is critical to more accurately represent the AlCl 3 system across a wide phase-space. The MLIP trained using PBE-D3 functional in the ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations (120 atoms) also showed close agreement with experimentally determined molten salt structure comprising Al 2 Cl 6 dimers, as validated using Raman spectra and neutron structure factor. Furthermore, the PBE-D3 as well as its trained MLIP showed better liquid density and temperature correlation for AlCl 3 system when compared to several other density functionals explored in this work. Overall, the demonstrated approach to predict temperature correlations for liquid and vapor densities in this study can be employed to screen nuclear reactors-relevant compositions, helping to mitigate safety concerns.

Ab initio molecular dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model Evaluation and Intercomparison of Marine Warm Low Cloud Fractions With Neural Network Ensembles

Abstract Low cloud fractions (LCFs) and meteorological factors (MFs) over an oceanic region containing multiple cloud regimes are examined for three data sets: one Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulation with the default 72‐layer vertical grid (E3SM72), another one with 8‐times vertical resolution via the Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (E3SM 8), and one with MFs from ERA5 reanalysis and LCFs from the CERES SSF product (ERA5‐SSF). Neural networks (NNs) are trained to capture the relationship between MFs and LCF and to select the best‐performing MF subsets for predicting LCF. NN ensembles are used to (a) confirm the performance of selected MF subsets, (b) to serve as proxy models for each data set to predict LCFs for MFs from all data sets, and (c) to classify MFs into those in shared and uniquely occupied MF subspaces. Overall, E3SM72 and E3SM 8 have large fractions of MFs in shared MF subspace, but less so near the Californian and Peruvian stratocumulus decks. E3SM 8 and ERA5 have small fractions of MFs in shared MF subspace but greater than E3SM72 and ERA5, especially in the Southeast Pacific. The differences in LCFs between three pairs of data sets are decomposed into those associated with the differences in the LCF‐MF relationship and those involving different MFs. Given the same MFs, LCFs produced by E3SM 8 are greater than those produced by E3SM72 but are still different from those in ERA5‐SSF. In general, the shift in MFs dominates the difference in the LCFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

NLML: A Deep Neural Network Emulator for the Exact Nonlinear Interactions in a Wind Wave Model

Nonlinear wave interactions describe the resonant energy transfer between wave components, playing a fundamental role in the evolution of ocean wave spectra. Nonlinear wave interactions significantly influence wave growth and development, making them essential for accurate wave modeling. However, resolving the full six-dimensional Boltzmann integral of the exact nonlinear wave interactions (Webb-Resio-Tracy method, WRT) is computationally expensive, limiting its application in real-time operational wave forecasting and for research purposes. Current approximations, such as the Discrete Interaction Approximation (DIA), prioritize computational speed over accuracy, resulting in significant errors in wave mean parameters. Here, we introduce NLML, a machine learning (ML) emulator designed to approximate the exact nonlinear wave interactions within WAVEWATCH III (WW3), with the goal of achieving the accuracy of WRT while maintaining the stability and computational speed of DIA. By leveraging GPU capabilities such as half precision inference, we achieved substantial speedups, up to 136x mathematical equation faster than the WRT and only a modest 1.04x mathematical equation slowdown relative to DIA, while achieving 2x mathematical equation the accuracy of DIA in global wave spectral energy and mean wave parameters, with up to 7x mathematical equation higher accuracy in some regions. Unlike previous ML approaches, NLML maintained inherent stability throughout model integration in a standalone, year-long WW3 simulation, without requiring additional constraints. Our new ML parameterization bridges the gap between accuracy and efficiency, offering a promising alternative for improving wave modeling in operational settings and research purposes.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗