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At least 847 records · Page 47

Projected Changes to Cool‐Season Storm Tides in the 21st Century Along the Northeastern United States Coast

Abstract This study investigates changes and uncertainties to cool‐season (November‐March) storm tides along the U.S. northeast coast in the 21st century under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to late 20th century. A high‐fidelity (50‐m coastal resolution) hydrodynamic storm tide model is forced with three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) over three decadal periods (historical, mid‐21st century, and late‐21st century) to project future changes in peak storm tide elevations at coastal counties in the region. While there is no absolute consensus on future changes to storm tides, for any one future decade two out of the three RCMs project an increase at counties along the Hudson River, Delaware River, and northern Chesapeake Bay due to more intense cyclones that track inland of these locations leading to favorable surge generating conditions. The same RCMs also project a decrease at counties facing the open ocean in the mid‐Atlantic Bight as cyclone densities just offshore of the coastline decrease, particularly by late‐century. The greater tidal range in northern areas of the region leads to uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes to storm tide levels due to the arbitrary timing of the local tidal stage and the surge‐producing weather event. This random tide‐weather timing is less important in the Chesapeake Bay and unimportant in Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. Similar to other recent studies, we highlight that sea level rise is likely to be more critical than storm climatology for future changes to the cool‐season coastal flooding potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Crowd-based spatial risk assessment of urban flooding: Results from a municipal flood hotline in Detroit, MI

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, raising the risk of urban flood disasters. This study uses a crowd-sourced municipal call database to characterize the spatial distribution of flood risk in Detroit, MI. Call data including dates and addresses were obtained from the City of Detroit Department of Public Works for 2021. Calls were mapped and aggregated to census tract counts and merged with neighborhood-level data. Associations of predictors with flood calls were tested using spatial regression models. Flooding calls were located throughout the city but were concentrated in specific areas. Multivariate models of census tract level call counts indicated that increased poverty and Black, immigrant, and older residents were positively associated with flood calls, while increased elevation was associated with protective effects. Longer distances from waste water interceptors were associated with higher risk for calls. Crowd-sourced flood hotline call data can be used for effective spatial flood risk assessment. Though flooding occurs throughout the city of Detroit, infrastructural, neighborhood, and household factors influence flooding extent. Limitations included the self-reported nature of calls. Future modeling efforts might include input from local stakeholders to improve spatial risk assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: EnKF System Design and Preliminary Assessment

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Riverbed and Near-Surface Water Quality Data, Hanford Reach, Columbia River, February 2021 - April 2022

This dataset contains longitudinal profiles of natural groundwater tracers (temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), and Radon-222 (Rn)) collected to identify locations of hydrologic exchange flows along a 75-km reach of the Columbia River near Richland, Washington.A jetboat was used to tow a 30 foot long, weighted tether that had one set of temperature and EC sensors just below the water surface and one set of temperature and EC sensors on the end (just above the river bed). The dataset contains profiles of temperature/EC data (resolution: 1 second) collected along the left and right banks during three different sampling events. During the final sampling event, we revisited some "deep holes" where the river was more than 30 feet deep with a weighted tether that was 75 feet long. The dataset has been processed to remove data collected when the sensors were not in the water, or when the water was too deep to keep the tether on the riverbed. We collected grab samples of water for analysis of dissolved Rn in places where the temperature/EC was different from the background river water. The Rn data was joined to the temperature/EC profiles based on the sample times.This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) installation methods; (4) February 2021 data; (5) July 2021 data; (6) April 2022 data; and (7) April 2022 deep hole data. All files are .csv format and can be opened with a spreadsheet program (such as Microsoft Excel or OpenOffice).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proposed Products to Support Shelter-Evacuation Decision Making in the Event of a Nuclear Detonation

Response strategies implemented in the first few hours to days after a nuclear detonation on the US homeland may save more than 100,000 lives. Effective planning and pre-event capability development can increase the response efficacy and so the number of lives saved. During such an event, the US Department of Defense, Joint Task Force Civil Support (DoD JTF-CS) provides command and control for the DoD forces supporting civil authority response operations. Among other activities, JTF-CS expects to support FEMA as well as State and local agencies in shelter and evacuation response activities. JTF-CS currently uses a manual method to generate evacuation decision making products. This method compares the dose that would be (a) acquired remaining at a given location to that (b) acquired during evacuation along a small number of routes. In these products, evacuation may be warranted when the projected “remain” dose is greater than the “evacuate” dose. This method only provides a limited consideration of the protection buildings provide their occupants. To inform the JTF-CS nuclear detonation response, the DoD Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has tasked Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to design a set of planning and response products to support shelter-evacuation activities. This report documents these products to facilitate DTRA and JTF-CS planning efforts. To provide context, we also provide appendices that summarize US planning guidance response zones, early (<72 h) response strategies, and other key topics.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Baltimore MD↗

Material transfers detection with seismic observations

We are exploring the use of data from a seismic network around a research nuclear reactor and isotope production facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to study activity patterns related to the transfer of nuclear material. A sensor network with eight seismometers was installed around the High Flux Isotope Reactor and the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center and started operating in October 2019. These data are used to detect and characterize operational events around facility. We are using those data to extract signals related to the movement of vehicles involved in the transport of nuclear materials (e.g., transportation of reactor fuel, targets, and product isotopes). Large vehicles produce mechanical energy that can be observed as seismic signals, either as the result of sound emanating from the vehicle engine or by the generation of surface waves as a response of the ground to the load of the vehicles. In particular, the station located near the entrance gate of the facility displays a clear seismic signature as vehicles cross a metal platform on the ground. This signal is characterized by sharp energy bursts that correspond to the number of axles on the vehicle. We developed and are testing an algorithm to identify sequences of energy bursts to count and characterize vehicles of different sizes. We are also exploring the use of seismic polarization analysis to measure the degree of polarization of the observed signals. These two techniques for detection and characterization of vehicles used for nuclear material transfers will be validated with seismic data from a targeted collection using different vehicles and routes similar to the ones used in real-life scenarios at the High Flux Isotope Reactor.

Marcillo, Omar↗

Multipoint Observations of Quasiperiodic Emission Intensification and Effects on Energetic Electron Precipitation

The two Van Allen Probes simultaneously recorded a coherently modulated quasiperiodic (QP) emission that persisted for 3 h. The magnetic field pulsation at the locations of the two satellites showed a substantial difference, and their frequencies were close to but did not exactly match the repetition frequency of QP emissions for most of the time, suggesting that those coherent QP emissions probably originated from a common source, which then propagated over a broad area in the magnetosphere. The QP emissions were amplified by local anisotropic electron distributions, and their large-scale amplitudes were modulated by the plasma density. A novel observation of this event is that chorus waves at frequencies above QP emissions exhibit a strong correlation with QP emissions. Those chorus waves intensified when the QP emissions reach their peak frequency. This indicates that embryonic QP emissions may be critical for its own intensification as well as chorus waves under certain circumstances. A Low-Earth-Orbit POES satellite observed enhanced energetic electron precipitation in conjunction with the Van Allen Probes, providing direct evidence that QP emissions precipitate energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Finally, this scenario is quantitatively confirmed by our quasilinear diffusion simulation results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gallium oxide (Ga 2 O 3 ) energy dependent scintillation response to fast neutrons and flash gamma-rays

Gallium oxide is a newly emerged ultrawide bandgap (4.9 eV) semiconductor that is suitable as a combined electronics and radiation detection platform. We have experimentally demonstrated fast neutron and gamma-ray scintillation from Czochralski-grown β-Ga 2 O 3 in a recent series (October 2023) of experiments at the unmoderated pulsed neutron spallation source located at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. Using the neutron time-of-flight (TOF) technique and a fast-gated intensified CCD camera, we observed energy-dependent neutron scintillation for neutron energies ranging from 1 to 400 MeV, including the 14.1 MeV neutron energy relevant to D–T fusion. Neutron flux is quantified and calibrated by cascading the scintillator after the fission chamber, enabling a detailed analysis of temporal and energy-dependent characteristics of the scintillation events. Further, a pronounced scintillation signal from the spallation gamma flash with a temporal full width of half maximum of ~4 ns is indicative of the material’s rapid response. Neutron energy dependent scintillation is observed using the TOF method at a 22.6-m distance from the neutron source. These results highlight the possibility of developing a Ga 2 O 3 based fusion neutron diagnostic platform integrated with both scintillation and electronics functions on the integrated chip scale.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Heavy Neutral Leptons from Stopped Muons and Pions

Stopped muons, which are generic in pion-at-rest experiments, can shed light on heavy neutral leptons (HNLs) in unexplored parameter spaces. If the HNL is lighter than the muon, the HNL can be produced from decays of muons and pions. The HNL will travel from the production location and decay into visible Standard Model (SM) modes, leaving signals inside downstream detectors. We find that in the case that the HNL dominantly mixes with muon neutrinos, the LSND constraint on the mixing angle squared is stronger than all the previous constraints by more than an order of magnitude. In this study, we recast the LSND measurement of the ν – e scattering. Future experiments such as PIP2-BD could further improve the sensitivity, provided they can distinguish the HNL events from backgrounds induced by the SM neutrinos.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The phylogenetic roots of addiction: compulsive drug seeking, natural and drug-sensitive reward, and the acquisition of learned habits

Our rational faculties permit us humans to maximize the utility of our actions. We perform a fundamental type of cost-benefit analysis in which we frame a problem, assign values to the different paths, and then choose from among a set of available options, the course that promises the most favorable outcome. So why then does addiction appear to be so impervious to the associated costs, so unaffected by undesired consequences, and ultimately so resistant to cognitive oversight? The answer may likely be found in the fact that the drivers for compulsive drug seeking and drug taking are located in affective brain circuits, circuits that are structured and patterned by learning with repeated activation. These deep processes exhibit significant resistance to control by our cognitive faculties. The general consensus is that addiction arises from mechanisms that overvalue the magnitude of reward, discount the associated risks, and thereby bias individuals towards compulsive pursuit of addictive drugs. Behavioral disruption and dependence appear to arise at the intersection of a number of connected but separate phenomena: expectations for the occurrence of specific events, behaviors that seek encounters with them, the ability to notice and learn nonrandom, co-occurring conditions, the prediction and valuation of consequences, the forming of enduring memories, and the drivers of focused behavior through compulsion, habits, and acquired routines. It is important to recognize that each one of these individual faculties are present and well developed across the entire phylogenetic tree of bilateral metazoans. The goal of this special volume is dedicated to exploring the degree to which inherent elements can account for addiction and addiction-associated phenomena. In much of the literature on addiction, the underlying processes are often viewed as distinctly mammalian, arising, in part, from the strong cognitive capacities of this taxon. Some phenomena may even be regarded to exist only in primates, or even solely in humans. This supposition arises from the fact that studies are conducted almost exclusively in mammals and primates, while evolutionary antecedents of the behavior are rarely considered. A more comprehensive perspective that examines drug reward and reinforcement in a wider range of organisms demonstrates that many of the component traits are actually well developed across the greater metazoan lineage, and they may well predate the emergence of a mammalian clade by a wide margin. The collection of papers assembled here supports the notion that the capacity to associate cues and quences has not arisen in mammals de novo. Rather, the neural mechanisms for detecting contingencies and for predicting future outcomes are very deeply rooted across broad phylogenetic divisions. Our understanding of an ability to associate paired events has been enriched by work in invertebrate preparations in both classical and operant conditioning scenarios [Cook and Carew, 1986, 1989a, 1989b]. The ability to learn allows us to connect cues and behavioral actions to their associated consequences. Pavlovian conditioning enriches surrounding cues with predictive value. Outcomes with positive valence generate appetitive responses and approach to the associated cues, while those perceived as aversive bring cue avoidance and withdrawal. Humans are not the only life forms capable of such short- and long-term modulations of behavior

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling of regional geophysics and local soil-structure models in the EQSIM fault-to-structure earthquake simulation framework

Accurate understanding and quantification of the risk to critical infrastructure posed by future large earthquakes continues to be a very challenging problem. Earthquake phenomena are quite complex and traditional approaches to predicting ground motions for future earthquake events have historically been empirically based whereby measured ground motion data from historical earthquakes are homogenized into a common data set and the ground motions for future postulated earthquakes are probabilistically derived based on the historical observations. This procedure has recognized significant limitations, principally due to the fact that earthquake ground motions tend to be dictated by the particular earthquake fault rupture and geologic conditions at a given site and are thus very site-specific. Historical earthquakes recorded at different locations are often only marginally representative. There has been strong and increasing interest in utilizing large-scale, physics-based regional simulations to advance the ability to accurately predict ground motions and associated infrastructure response. However, the computational requirements for simulations at frequencies of engineering interest have proven a major barrier to employing regional scale simulations. In a U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Initiative project, the EQSIM application development is underway to create a framework for fault-to-structure simulations. This framework is being prepared to exploit emerging exascale platforms in order to overcome computational limitations. This article presents the essential methodology and computational workflow employed in EQSIM to couple regional-scale geophysics models with local soil-structure models to achieve a fully integrated, complete fault-to-structure simulation framework. Here, the computational workflow, accuracy and performance of the coupling methodology are illustrated through example fault-to-structure simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact Noise Monitoring at Site 9940: RD-24 Shots

The purpose of this sampling event was to determine if the observation point (inside the MFCP) could be relocated from 74 feet away to 21 feet from ground zero and to determine how much attenuation is provided by the MFCP. The MFCP provides noise attenuation to ensure Members of the Workforce (MOW) exposure to impact noise is below the Occupational Exposure Limit (OEL) of 140 dBC. The MFCP will be used for future tests under similar configurations. Please note that during each test shot, MOW was located inside MFCP that was 74 feet from ground zero and donned hearing protection (e.g., ear plugs with a minimum noise reduction rating of 23).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development and Stability Analysis of Representative Future High Renewable Penetration Power Grid Models for California

The power grid in California is now experiencing a significant increase in renewable generation to achieve 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper discusses a method for developing the transient stability (TS) model of the future high renewable penetration in the power grid in California. The method consists of utilizing an existing future Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) grid model in the database and locating the conventional plants in the base model that will potentially retire in the next few years in California. Next, the dynamic models of those identified conventional plants and controls in the existing model are modified to replicate the future power generation in the California region. Different scenarios of future power grid in California are developed for various renewable penetration levels and control strategies in renewable power plants. The effect of the control strategies on the stability of the power grid under events like loss of generation are evaluated. Based on these evaluations, certain control features in power plants are identified as necessary for stability of future power grids.

Samanta, Sayan↗

Horizontal transfer of chromosomal DNA mediated by an integrative and conjugative element generates frequent localized recombination in Novosphingobium aromaticivorans

Horizontal gene transfer is an important evolutionary process by which DNA is exchanged between cells that are physically co-located but not direct evolutionary descendants. Horizontal transfer of highly divergent DNA is relatively easy to detect and can produce major phenotypic changes, exemplified by the acquisition of antibiotic resistance determinants. However, transfer of high-identity DNA, for example, between strains of the same species, is likely to be more frequent, harder to detect, and highly impactful in aggregate. In this work, we demonstrate that soil isolates of the alphaproteobacterium Novosphingobium aromaticivorans can exchange chromosomal DNA, leading to multiple unselected recombination events spanning approximately 10% of the chromosome. Chromosomal recombination was directional and more efficient near an integrative and conjugative element (ICE), and required a relaxase found in the ICE. Recombination could not be observed in strains from closely related Novosphingobium species. In combination, these results suggest that ICE-mediated recombination can efficiently recombine DNA within N. aromaticivorans, increasing the adaptive potential of the species while also enforcing species boundaries through preferential intraspecific recombination.

Allemann, Marco [ORNL]↗

MODAQ-BB (Modular Offshore Data Acquisition System - Blackbox) [SWR-24-72]

MODAQ-BB is a compact, rapid deployment data acquisition system that can withstand water depths up to 400m. Codenamed "BlackBox" (or simply BB), since its initial purpose was to track marine assets and record vital data streams that could later be recovered in the event of a mishap - much like a traditional black box used in aviation and shipping, the name has stuck. MODAQ BlackBox is a battery-operable microcontroller platform with internal inertial sensing, GPS, satellite communications, and additional I/O (input/output) support in a depth-rated pressure enclosure. Since BB is self-contained and relatively compact, it can be quickly deployed with minimal effort. The enclosure can be clamped to a tube (such as part of a railing) or mast in a location with unobstructed view of the sky using the available clamp accessory or a common hose clamp. While BB is designed to operate unattended, users can configure what data are uploaded and the frequency of satellite transmissions. Once data are uploaded, they can be relayed to an email distribution list, the MODAQ:Web operational dashboard, or a custom destination. BB has found utility in the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR's) Waterpower projects beyond its original vision and has been configured and successfully deployed in more traditional data-gathering applications where a simple, battery-operated solution was indicated. As part of the MODAQ family, BB fills a space in the spectrum of missions that can be supported that were previously impractical using the traditional MODAQ hardware architecture due to factors such as weight, size, and cost.

Raye, Robert↗

Effects of Vegetation on Fluxes of Nitric Oxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Nitrous Oxide in a Mixed Deciduous Forest Clearing

Atmosphere-terrestrial exchange of nitrogen oxides, such as nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O), plays an important role in controlling atmospheric composition and the radiative forcing of Earth’s atmosphere. In this study, the impact of vegetation ground cover on NOx (NOx = NO + NO2) and N2O fluxes in a deciduous forest clearing was studied using dynamic flow chambers located on three experimental plots with differing vegetation ground cover. Microbial emissions of NO and N2O were observed throughout the measurement period, while NO2 was exclusively deposited. Vegetation had no observable impact on NO2 deposition. Under dry conditions, total measured nitrogen emissions were numerically similar across all plots, although the N2O:NO ratio was higher for plots containing plants. Vegetation elevates soil water content through enhanced water retention, a condition that favors denitrification and more N2O production, relative to NO. Two rain events induced pulses of NO and N2O that were higher for bare soil compared to the vegetated plots. Lower NO and N2O emissions in plant-containing chambers stemmed from enhanced root uptake of N following rewetting, which diminished the amount of N substrate available for microbial NO and N2O production. The sensitivity of soil N emissions to vegetation ground cover highlights the need for more studies that investigate this effect over a wide range of ecosystems and to include vegetation effects in future parameterizations of soil NOx and N2O used in atmospheric models. This dataset includes processed data collected from 4 dynamic flux chambers and 17 sensors. Data includes ambient gas measurements made 1 m from the surface and soil flux measurements of NO, NO2, N2O, ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Also included is a suite of meteorological (air temperature, humidity, pressure) and soil parameters (water filled pore space, soil temperature). Refer to the readme for more information about each of the data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗