Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Life Cycle”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A sustainable cobalt separation with validation by techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessment

Sustainable, cost-effective cobalt/nickel separations chemistry contributes to the realization of economically competitive lithium-ion battery recycling, as well as primary mining of cobalt and nickel. Such improvements can address supply chain challenges for cobalt, a critical element. Herein, we disclose a simple method for separating Co/Ni by second coordination-sphere molecular recognition. Selective cobalt precipitation is achieved using carbonate ions in an ammonia solution due to the outer-sphere, hydrogen bonding interactions between [Co(NH 3 ) 6 ] 3+ and CO 3 2− , evaluated with density functional theory calculations. We demonstrate this method on mixtures of Co/Ni chlorides comprising a 10-fold excess of Ni and provide comparisons with ore-processing systems. High purities (99.4(3)% Co; 98.2(4)% Ni) and recoveries (77(8)% Co; ∼100% Ni) were observed for both Co- and Ni-enriched products using optimized conditions. In conclusion, this method is potentially economically competitive based on initial techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) that also illustrate advantages in terms of sustainability.

cobalt↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of an Integrated Direct Air Capture System with Advanced Algal Biofuel Production

The continuous increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere since the First Industrial Revolution correlates convincingly with the ongoing rise of the Earth's global average temperature contributing to climate change. As a response, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies are being implemented to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions by capturing CO2 from high emitting point sources, such as power plants, refineries, and cement factories, and subsequently buried in geological formations underground for long term storage. Recently direct air capture (DAC) has emerged as a promising alternative technology that captures CO2 directly from the atmosphere for use or sequestration. This study investigates the potential synergistic benefits of integrating a solid amine-based DAC system with advanced algal biofuel production in photobioreactors (PBRs). DAC utilization allows the removal of atmospheric CO2 while also decoupling algae production facilities from anthropogenic point CO2 sources and avoiding the cost and logistics challenges of transporting CO2 long distances to remote facilities. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment are performed to assess the economic and environmental benefits of heat and mass integration between the DAC and the PBR for biofuel production. The DAC-PBR system integration also considers on-site flue gas handling options, DAC capital utilization, the tradeoff between centralization or decentralization of key unit operations, and the PBR array. This presentation will discuss how optimizing DAC-PBR process integration can enhance the algal biofuel's economic and environmental sustainability and the prospect of DAC enabling the circular carbon economy.

algal biofuel production↗
NASA NTRS2010

Life Cycle Cost Growth Study for the Discovery and New Frontiers Program Office

The D&NF Program Office LCC Management Study provides a detailed look at the drivers underlying cost overruns and schedule delays for five D&NF missions. While none of the findings are new, the study underlines the importance of continued emphasis on sound project management techniques: a clean project management structure with a clear definition of roles and responsibilities across the various partners in a project, an understanding of institutional standards and procedures and any differences among the partners, and the critical need for a comprehensive IMS that can be used easily and routinely to identify potential threats to the critical path. The study also highlights the continuing need for realistic estimates of the total LCC. Sufficient time and resources must be allocated early in a project to ensure that the appropriate trade studies and analyses are performed across all aspects of a mission: spacecraft, ground system, operations concept, and fault management, to ensure that proposed and confirmed costs truly reflect the resource requirements over the entire mission life cycle. These studies need to include a realistic review of the assumptions underlying the use of new technologies, the integration of heritage and new hardware and software into the total mission environment, and any development and test savings based on heritage technology and lessons learned. Finally, the LCC Management Study stresses the need to listen to, carefully consider, and take positive action regarding the issues raised during reviews by the expert review teams.

Barley, Bryan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Algae-Based Beneficial Re-use of Carbon Emissions Using a Novel Photobioreactor: a Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Analysis

Despite the many advantages of microalgae, the feasibility of large-scale cultivation requires significant amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to enable high growth rates. A synergistic union typically proposed for the supply of CO 2 is the coupling of algal cultivation with emissions from power plants. This study investigates the sustainability of a novel microalgae platform coupled with coal-based flue gas. The proposed system consists of a novel photobioreactor (PBR) for the production of biomass followed by a two-stage dewatering process. Here, a systems model, which quantifies the CO 2 and energy consumption of the proposed system, was developed and the minimum biomass selling price (MBSP) was determined by a techno-economic analysis (TEA). TEA results indicate that a facility with the capacity to capture 30% of the emissions from a 1 MW power plant requires a biomass production of 1280 metric tonnes per year, which when scaled to a nth of kind facility, can produce biomass at a MBSP of $2322 per tonne. The environmental impact of the proposed facility was determined by a life cycle assessment methodology and results indicate a carbon capture potential of 1.16 x 10 4 metric tons of CO 2 equivalent. In addition, an energy analysis indicates a desirable net energy ratio of 0.1, which is lower than conventional PBRs. Discussion focuses on the requirements to reduce biomass production cost, including research investment areas for increasing productivity while decreasing energy requirements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1993

A comprehensive methodology for intelligent systems life-cycle cost modelling

As NASA moves into the last part on the twentieth century, the desire to do 'business as usual' has been replaced with the mantra 'faster, cheaper, better'. Recently, new work has been done to show how the implementation of advanced technologies, such as intelligent systems, will impact the cost of a system design or in the operational cost for a spacecraft mission. The impact of the degree of autonomous or intelligent systems and human participation on a given program is manifested most significantly during the program operational phases, while the decision of who performs what tasks, and how much automation is incorporated into the system are all made during the design and development phases. Employing intelligent systems and automation is not an either/or question, but one of degree. The question is what level of automation and autonomy will provide the optimal trade-off between performance and cost. Conventional costing methodologies, however, are unable to show the significance of technologies like these in terms of traceable cost benefits and reductions in the various phases of the spacecraft's lifecycle. The proposed comprehensive life-cycle methodology can address intelligent system technologies as well as others that impact human-machine operational modes.

Korsmeyer, David J.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment for electrochemical ammonia production using proton conducting membrane

Green ammonia production is facing increasing interest on a global scale as a hydrogen carrier for power generation as well as fertilizer for food production. The conventional Haber-Bosch method for ammonia synthesis is energy demanding, requires high purity hydrogen, and is based on fossil fuels. A preliminary techno-economic model for electrochemical ammonia synthesis at near ambient pressure using feed rates of 32 metric ton/day for hydrogen and 135 metric ton/day for nitrogen is presented in this study. Various pathways using different methods for nitrogen generation and hydrogen production were investigated to gain insight into added energy savings per metric ton of ammonia. Electrochemical synthesis using electrolysis for hydrogen and cryogenic nitrogen was found to be a potentially viable pathway for green ammonia. The profitability metrics including discounted cash flow rate of return, net present value and discounted payback period were estimated to be 8%, $40 MM, and 4–6 years respectively for this pathway. The cost of electricity, conversion rate, and conversion efficiency dominate the tonnage cost of ammonia and were used to assess the feasibility of the model. A life cycle assessment was also conducted to assess the environmental impact of a well to product ammonia process.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies for Bioprocessing Separations

Limited availability, rising costs, and environmental concerns about fossil fuels have generated considerable interest in finding alternative, renewable sources including biomass, which can be converted into a number of biofuels and bioproducts. In comparison to petroleum-based products, high processing costs, mainly associated with bioprocessing separations, limit widespread implementation of biofuels and bioproducts. Bioprocess-related separations are also complicated, regardless of the conversion pathway, due to the dilute nature of products and the chemically complex mixtures that result from biomass deconstruction. In many cases, bioprocessing separation approaches lack a technology baseline, or definition of the state of technology (SOT). This work focuses on evaluating the technology readiness of novel separations technologies for the conversion of biomass into biofuels and bioproducts and will address three key topics: 1) SOT description, 2) economic viability analysis of both SOT and innovative separations, and 3) environmental impact assessment of both SOT and novel processes. The current SOT for lignin valorization, dilute carbon recovery, and impurity removal is used to identify potential opportunities for improvement and provide a baseline for comparison with the emerging technologies. Detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are applied to understand the key drivers and challenges related to the economic feasibility and environmental impacts, respectively.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Life Cycle Assessment of Bioethanol Production: A Case Study from Poplar Biomass Growth in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Biomass appears to be one of the most prominent renewable resources for biofuels such as bioethanol, mainly due to its better environmental performance compared with fossil fuels. This study addresses a comprehensive environmental performance of bioethanol production, employing empirical data from hybrid poplar grown in the U.S. The study considers 1 MJ as a functional unit and employs a cradle-to-grave approach, which entails the feedstock and harvesting production of poplar, transport to a biorefinery, bioconversion of the biomass process, and fuel use. On average, bioconversion is the main contributor to environmental degradation in all the categories evaluated (77%). The second main contributor is either the feedstock and harvesting production of poplar (17%) or fuel use (6%), depending on the environmental category. Thus, focusing on only one category may induce a misinterpretation of the environmental performance of bioethanol production. Finally, environmental credits in the global warming potential (GWP) category were obtained from the carbon sequestered in the biomass during the growing period and from avoided fossil fuel emissions due to electricity production from a renewable source. This means that the net GWP of the life cycle of bioethanol from poplar biomass is slightly negative (–1.05 × 10 –3 kg CO 2 -eq·MJ –1 ).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upconversion of non-recycled MSW paper fractions into biochar via slow pyrolysis and life cycle analysis: Pathways to net negative GHG emission

This study presents an integrated and sustainable approach to valorizing non-recycled municipal solid waste (MSW), a heterogeneous and underutilized waste stream destined for landfilling, by converting it into valuable biochar resources. Specifically, we investigated the upcycling of nonrecycled paper waste based on compositional analysis into four major fractions: high cellulose, high lignin, high contamination, and high ash content papers. These fractions were then homogenized and subjected to slow pyrolysis. The high cellulose fraction (36.1 %) was the most abundant, and contained 66.7 % cellulose, while the high lignin fraction showed the highest lignin (12.1 %) and carbon content (44 %), resulting in highest energy value of 17.4 MJ kg −1 . Biochar yields ranged from 25.6 % to 35.6 %, with the high ash fraction producing the highest yield and alkalinity (pH ≈ 11.2) due to its higher mineral content. Elemental analysis revealed enhanced carbon content up to 76.9 % and reduced oxygen and hydrogen, confirming effective carbonization. The high lignin-derived biochar showed the highest aromatic carbon content (82.8 %) and greater structural stability, while contaminated and ash-rich fractions exhibited dense, low-porosity surfaces due to the presence of contaminants and minerals. Spectroscopic analysis revealed degradation of carbohydrates, disappearance of cellulose peaks and formation of aromatic and mineral derived phases. The scaled life cycle process yielded a global warming potential (GWP) of 119.3 kg CO 2 -eq per ton of dry paper waste, offset by soil carbon sequestration of − 556.41 kg CO 2 -eq, resulting in a net impact of − 427.36 kg CO 2 -eq. This represents a net carbon removal exceeding by ~186 % the emissions associated with landfilling paper waste with electricity generation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Heavy Precipitation throughout the Entire Tropical Cyclone Life Cycle

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated precipitation can have devastating impacts on the areas affected, with outcomes ranging from mudslides to inland flash flooding. Previous studies have used a fixed radius around the TC to isolate storm-related precipitation. One previous study instead used a dynamic radius of 8 m s −1 winds, but the wind field of the TC can deteriorate or shift quickly after landfall or the onset of extratropical transition (ET). This study uses a dynamical radius derived from the 500-hPa geopotential height in and around the TC to define TC- and post-tropical cyclone (PTC)-related heavy precipitation, allowing for the analysis of precipitation with tropical origins after the official demise of the original TC. Climatologies are constructed, indicating a maximum in TC- and PTC-related heavy precipitation in the west North Pacific and a secondary maximum in the east North Pacific. PTC-related heavy precipitation accounts for as much as 40% of the annual heavy precipitation in the northwest portion of the west North Pacific basin and 3.13% of heavy precipitation globally. We observe that the major hurricane stage contributes on average 2.6% of the global TC- and PTC-related precipitation, while the less intense but more common tropical storm stages of the TC life cycle contribute 85.7% of this observed precipitation. This analysis framework can be further extended to assess model biases and climate projections of TC and PTC precipitation.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Home charging for all: Techno-economic and life cycle assessment of multi-unit dwelling electric vehicle charging hubs

Ubiquitous electric vehicle adoption can drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) but will require equitable home charging infrastructure for all residences. Unlike single-family homes, Multi-Unit Dwellings (MUD) currently lack market share and access to nearby charging infrastructure partly due to expensive capital costs for reluctant residential property-owners. Further, this work evaluates the levelized cost of charging (LCOC) for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) at MUD community charging hubs through a techno-economic analysis (TEA) that leverages real-world charging data and costs. Three different MUD charging types are investigated for a baseline and optimistic case: 1.9-kW Level 1 (L1), 6.6-kW Level 2 (L2), and 50-kW Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC) stations under three different ownership models: resident, utility, and private company. Results demonstrate L1 and L2 chargers to be less expensive than the gasoline equivalent across the United States. Further, utility and private company ownership models, which avoid initial costs for residential property owners, result in a large LCOC premium for L1 and moderate LCOC premium for L2 relative to the resident ownership model. In contrast, DCFC is shown to be expensive for baseline scenarios but economical for optimistic scenarios especially under private company ownership. This work also performs a cradle to grave (C2G) life cycle assessment (LCA) of an average passenger BEV and gasoline conventional vehicle (CV) using yearly (grid mix & vehicle parameters), hourly (grid mix), and state-level (grid mix) resolution. Results show BEVs to have lower GHG emissions (-86% to-10%) than gasoline CVs in the contiguous U.S. Next, the system boundary of the TEA is extended to the total cost of ownership (TCO) of BEVs. The TCO is then coupled with the C2G GHG emissions to calculate the cost of GHG emissions reduction. Ultimately, the cost of GHG emissions reduction from MUD BEVs relative to gasoline CVs is shown to be negative for every scenario except baseline DCFC, meaning MUD BEV charging infrastructure can be a cost-effective endeavor to reduce GHG emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) and Its Relationship to Life Cycle Cost

The Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) is a structured, modular breakdown of every function that must be addressed to perform a generic mission. It is also usable for any subset of the mission. Unlike a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), the FBS is a function-oriented tree, not a product-oriented tree. The FBS details not products, but operations or activities that should be performed. The FBS is not tied to any particular architectural implementation because it is a listing of the needed functions, not the elements, of the architecture. The FBS for Space Transportation Systems provides a universal hierarchy of required functions, which include ground and space operations as well as infrastructure - it provides total visibility of the entire mission. By approaching the systems engineering problem from the functional view, instead of the element or hardware view, the SPST has created an exhaustive list of potential requirements which the architecture designers can use to evaluate the completeness of their designs. This is a new approach that will provide full accountability of all functions required to perform the planned mission. It serves as a giant check list to be sure that no functions are omitted, especially in the early architectural design phase. A significant characteristic of a FBS is that if architecture options are compared using this approach, then any missing or redundant elements of each option will be ' identified. Consequently, valid Life Cycle Costs (LCC) comparisons can be made. For example, one architecture option might not need a particular function while another option does. One option may have individual elements to perform each of three functions while another option needs only one element to perform the three functions. Once an architecture has been selected, the FBS will serve as a guide in development of the work breakdown structure, provide visibility of those technologies that need to be further developed to perform required functions, and help identify the personnel skills required to develop and operate the architecture. It also wifi allow the systems engineering activities to totally integrate each discipline to the maximum extent possible and optimize at the total system level, thus avoiding optimizing at the element level (stove-piping). In addition, it furnishes a framework that wifi help prevent over or under specifying requirements because all functions are identified and all elements are aligned to functions.

DeHoff, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2021

An Innovative Approach to Modeling VIPER Rover Software Life Cycle Cost

NASA’s “Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover” (VIPER) will be the first robotic mission to prospect for water ice near the south pole of the Moon in late 2023 on a 100-Earth-day mission. The information that the VIPER rover provides will help improve understanding of the composition, distribution, and accessibility of Lunar polar volatiles and will help determine how the Moon’s resources can support future human space exploration. VIPER, however, represents a radical departure from the way that NASA has traditionally developed planetary robotic missions. A key consequence of these differences is that estimating the cost of VIPER’s rover software is challenging and complex.For example, VIPER is being developed using management procedures typically applied to NASA research and technology projects, rather than space flight programs. In addition, key portions of the rover’s software are being designed as ground software to run on mission control computers (rather than on-board the rover as flight software as with prior planetary missions) taking advantage of continuous, interactive data communications between the Moon and Earth and higher performance computing available on the ground. Moreover, the rover’s software is being engineered using Agile software development practices and incorporates a significant amount of open-source, rather than following traditional (spiral, waterfall, etc.) development methods and in-house code. In this paper, we present an innovative process to estimate the life cycle cost of VIPER’s rover software. We first describe how we modeled the architecture and code counts for three software elements: Rover Flight Software (RFSW), Rover Ground Software (RGSW), and Rover Simulation Software (RSIM). We then discuss key challenges and unique aspects of our approach, such as the lack of Lunar rover analogies, the need to integrate and test large open source software, and the strategies developed to account for use of non-space flight management practices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We conclude with a summary of our results, including cumulative distribution, nearest neighbors and cluster analysis, as well as heuristics used to confirm the reasonableness of the cost estimate.

Utz, Hans↗
DOE OSTI2016

Life-cycle analysis of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption in the 2016 MYPP algal biofuel scenarios

The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients. The present report describes a life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CAP and HTL options for the three scenarios just described. Water use is also reported. Water use during algal biofuel production comes from evaporation during cultivation, discharge to bleed streams to control pond salinity (“blowdown”), and from use during preprocessing and upgrading. For scenarios considered to date, most water use was from evaporation and, secondarily, from bleed streams. Other use was relatively small at the level of fidelity being modeled now.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS): A Methodology to Collect Radar Observations of Convective Cell Life Cycle

Abstract Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS), a smart sensing framework, was adapted to increase the likelihood of observing the vertical structure (with little to no gaps), spatial variability (at subkilometer scale), and temporal evolution (at ∼2-min resolution) of convective cells. This adaptation of MAAS guided two mechanically scanning C-band radars (CSAPR2 and CHIVO) by automatically analyzing the latest NEXRAD data to identify, characterize, track, and nowcast the location of all convective cells forming in the Houston domain. MAAS used either a list of predetermined rules or real-time user input to select a convective cell to be tracked and sampled by the C-band radars. The CSAPR2 tracking radar was first tasked to collect three sector plan position indicator (PPI) scans toward the selected cell. Edge computer processing of the PPI scans was used to identify additional targets within the selected cell. In less than 2 min, both the CSAPR2 and CHIVO radars were able to collect bundles of three to six range–height indicator (RHI) scans toward different targets of interest within the selected cell. Bundles were successively collected along the path of cell advection for as long as the cell met a predetermined set of criteria. Between 1 June and 30 September 2022 over 315 000 vertical cross-section observations were collected by the C-band radars through ∼1300 unique isolated convective cells, most of which were observed for over 15 min of their life cycle. To the best of our knowledge, this dataset, collected primarily through automatic means, constitutes the largest dataset of its kind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Life-Cycle Analysis of Alternative Aviation Fuels in GREET

The Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model, developed at Argonne National Laboratory, has been expanded to include well-to-wake (WTWa) analysis of aviation fuels and aircraft. This report documents the key WTWa stages and assumptions for fuels that represent alternatives to petroleum jet fuel. The aviation module in GREET consists of three spreadsheets that present detailed characterizations of well-to-pump and pump-to-wake parameters and WTWa results. By using the expanded GREET version (GREET1_2011), we estimate WTWa results for energy use (total, fossil, and petroleum energy) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) for (1) each unit of energy (lower heating value) consumed by the aircraft or(2) each unit of distance traveled/ payload carried by the aircraft. The fuel pathways considered in this analysis include petroleum-based jet fuel from conventional and unconventional sources (i.e., oil sands); Fisher-Tropsch (FT) jet fuel from natural gas, coal, and biomass; bio-jet fuel from fast pyrolysis of cellulosic biomass; and bio-jet fuel from vegetable and algal oils, which falls under the American Society for Testing and Materials category of hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids. For aircraft operation, we considered six passenger aircraft classes and four freight aircraft classes in this analysis. Our analysis revealed that, depending on the feedstock source, the fuel conversion technology, and the allocation or displacement credit methodology applied to co-products, alternative bio-jet fuel pathways have the potential to reduce life-cycle GHG emissions by 55–85 percent compared with conventional (petroleum-based) jet fuel. Although producing FT jet fuel from fossil feedstock sources — such as natural gas and coal — could greatly reduce dependence on crude oil, production from such sources (especially coal) produces greater WTWa GHG emissions compared with petroleum jet fuel production unless carbon management practices, such as carbon capture and storage, are used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗