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At least 847 records · Page 47

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DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment

Hydraulic head and mean annual streamflow, two main input parameters in hydropower resource assessment, are not measured at every point along the stream. Translation and interpolation are used to derive these parameters, resulting in uncertainties. This study estimates the uncertainties and their effects on model output parameters: the total potential power and the number of potential locations (stream-reach). These parameters are quantified through Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) linking with a geospatial merit matrix based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) Model. The methodology is applied to flat, mild, and steep terrains. Results show that the uncertainty associated with the hydraulic head is within 20% for mild and steep terrains, and the uncertainty associated with streamflow is around 16% for all three terrains. Output uncertainty increases as input uncertainty increases. However, output uncertainty is around 10% to 20% of the input uncertainty, demonstrating the robustness of the GMM-HRA model. Hydraulic head is more sensitive to output parameters in steep terrain than in flat and mild terrains. Furthermore, mean annual streamflow is more sensitive to output parameters in flat terrain.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling electron temperature profiles in the pedestal with simple formulas for ETG transport

Abstract This paper reports on the refinement (building on (Hatch D.R. et al 2022 Phys. Plasmas 29 062501)) and application of simple formulas for electron heat transport from electron temperature gradient (ETG) driven turbulence in the pedestal. The formulas are improved by (1) improving the parameterization for certain key parameters and (2) carefully accounting for the impact of geometry and shaping in the underlying gyrokinetic simulation database. Comparisons with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of ETG transport in the MAST pedestal demonstrate the model’s applicability to spherical tokamaks in addition to standard aspect ratio tokamaks. We identify bounds for model applicability: the model is accurate in the steep gradient region, where the ETG turbulence is largely slab-like, but accuracy decreases as the temperature gradient becomes weaker in the pedestal top. We use the formula to model the electron temperature profile in the pedestal for four experimental scenarios while extensively varying input parameters to represent uncertainties. In all cases, the predicted electron temperature profile exhibits extreme sensitivity to separatrix temperature and density, which has implications for core-edge integration. The model reproduces the electron temperature profile for high η e = L n e / L T e scenarios but not for low η e scenarios in which microtearing modes (MTMs) have been identified. We develop a proof-of-concept model for MTM transport and explore the relative roles of ETG and MTM in setting the electron temperature profile.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial intelligence-based predictive modeling for imaging neutral particle analyzers on the DIII-D tokamak

The Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) at DIII-D is a diagnostic system used to accurately resolve the energy and spatial distributions of fast ions in fusion plasmas. A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique named INPA-net is based on Reservoir Computing Networks and developed here to predict active and passive signals produced by charge-exchange reactions from injected and edge-cold neutrals, respectively, in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. This model is trained using a set of 21 time domain signals between 0 s to 3.35 s that includes injected beam and thermal plasma information, and 6444 real 2D experimental images of the INPA in 12 plasma discharges at DIII-D. The trained neural network is able to forecast experimental images in real-time. The model achieves an R-squared value of 0.91, which is higher than the 0.83 value achieved by a simple linear regression model. This improvement highlights the model's enhanced predictive accuracy for measured images from the validation set. This AI approach is valuable due to its rapid response times and potential for integration into real-time plasma control systems. A version of this model capable of generating syntehic images would be useful for the real-time monitoring of fast-ion transport. A comprehensive sensitivity study reveals that INPA-net maintains high performance even with variations in the input parameters, indicating the model's robustness and reliability. While developed for the INPA, the underlying architecture is adaptable and may be applied to various 2D imaging diagnostics in fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Production of the entire range of r -process nuclides by black hole accretion disc outflows from neutron star mergers

We consider r -process nucleosynthesis in outflows from black hole accretion discs formed in double neutron star and neutron star–black hole mergers. These outflows, powered by angular momentum transport processes and nuclear recombination, represent an important – and in some cases dominant – contribution to the total mass ejected by the merger. Here we calculate the nucleosynthesis yields from disc outflows using thermodynamic trajectories from hydrodynamic simulations, coupled to a nuclear reaction network. We find that outflows produce a robust abundance pattern around the second r -process peak (mass number A ~ 130), independent of model parameters, with significant production of A < 130 nuclei. This implies that dynamical ejecta with high electron fraction may not be required to explain the observed abundances of r -process elements in metal poor stars. Disc outflows reach the third peak (A ~ 195) in most of our simulations, although the amounts produced depend sensitively on the disc viscosity, initial mass or entropy of the torus, and nuclear physics inputs. Some of our models produce an abundance spike at A = 132 that is absent in the Solar system r -process distribution. The spike arises from convection in the disc and depends on the treatment of nuclear heating in the simulations. We conclude that disc outflows provide an important – and perhaps dominant – contribution to the r -process yields of compact binary mergers, and hence must be included when assessing the contribution of these systems to the inventory of r -process elements in the Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Impact of Diesel Fuel, Labor, and Interest Rates on Bulk-Format and Round Bale Logistics Expenses for Switchgrass

Highlights System-wide sensitivity of bulk-format and round bale logistics responded to different degrees of expense inputs. Biomass size-reduction expenses for bulk-format were consistently less than round-bale chopping. Stack/reclaim operations with high-density-capacity equipment for bulk-format were the highest expenses. Clean-sheet design of stacker/reclaimer and self-compacting bulk trailer may significantly reduce expenses. Abstract . Deterministic cost analyses were conducted for a harvest, storage, preprocessing, and supply system providing 371,870 dry Mg (dMg) year-1 of milled switchgrass (SG) to a biorefinery from 21,929 ha of production fields within 72 km of the biorefinery. Varied input costs of diesel fuel, labor, and interest rate were input into a highly detailed cost analysis for bulk-format and baseline round bale logistics. These operational input factors, potentially reflecting an evolving economic climate or paradigm shift, were examined to provide insight into the cost to deliver preprocessed biomass feedstock for centralized commercial-scale conversions. Total annual costs per dry unit of SG were determined for all combinations of diesel fuel prices of $0.53 L-1, $0.92 L-1, and $1.32 L-1; total labor costs of $20.00 h-1, $28.85 h-1, and $40.00 h-1 singly and uniformly applied across all labor inputs; and three representative interest rates of 6%, 8%, and 12%. Increases in total cost most depended on increases in diesel fuel cost, followed by labor rate, and finally interest rate. Increases in fuel costs from $0.53 L-1 to $1.32 L-1 yielded a total cost increase of about $11.56 dMg-1 and $13.36 dMg-1 for bulk-format and round bale logistics, respectively, for all combinations of labor and interest rates. The overall increase in labor rate ($20.00 h-1 to $40.85 h-1) resulted in increased total costs of about $10.32 dMg-1 for bulk-format logistics and $9.94 dMg-1 for round bale logistics for all fuel and interest rates. The overall increase in interest rate (6% to 12%) resulted in increased total costs of about $6.72 dMg-1 for bulk-format logistics and $4.21 dMg-1 for round bale logistics for all fuel and labor rates. Increases in total costs for combined increases in fuel cost, labor rate, and interest rate were $28.60 dMg-1 and $27.48 dMg-1, yielding maximum total costs of $87.87 dMg-1 and $86.53 dMg-1 for bulk-format and round bale logistics, respectively. Costs were determined for existing equipment systems, including novel use of waste compaction and ejector semi-trailers. The highest potential for cost reductions may require clean-sheet equipment designs specifically tailored for SG, such as forage harvesters that direct-cut standing SG, mobilized stacker-reclaimer technology to not inhibit stack-area footprint, self-compacting ejector trailer technology, and bale grinding technology incorporating controlled mass feeding and shear failure elements. Keywords: Bales, Bioenergy, Bulk-format, Densification, Field chop, Logistics, Transportation

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2019

Recommended Strategy for Implementing PORFLOW Subsidence Infiltration Boundary Conditions

This technical memorandum summarizes a limited-in-scope sensitivity analysis that addresses uncertainty in the conservatism of blending infiltration rates for use as input boundary conditions in PORFLOW vadose zone simulations as opposed to blending flux-to-the-water-table outputs for different subsidence infiltration scenarios, as has been done historically.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using AI to build a hydrobiogeochemical soil model

Soil water content is a function of inputs from precipitation and outputs via evaporation, transpiration, lateral flow, and vertical percolation, and is sensitive to biogeochemical processes. As such, soils serve as an ideal integrator of atmospheric, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes affecting the water cycle. In addition, soil water retention capacity, infiltration rates, and hydraulic conductivity can buffer or exacerbate the effects of extreme precipitation events (e.g., flooding, runoff, subsurface transport, erosion, greenhouse gas emissions) and mitigate the impact of droughts and heat waves on land systems (e.g., fire, crop failure). However, integrating water cycle measurements spanning different land atmosphere compartments across scales is a fundamental barrier for numerical model predictability. A significant challenge is that each domain (soil, hydrology, biology, and atmosphere) typically collects different sets of data at different temporal and spatial frequencies/scales, and even different dimensionalities (2D vs 3D). To implement soil as an integrator of the water cycle in land models, we suggest that novel machine learning (ML) tools can be developed to effectively simulate complex landscapes across various domains and scales, extended to regions with sparse or no data. The ultimate goals are to improve predictive understanding of land-atmosphere interactions and to extend the predictability of current Earth System Models (ESMs) through better integration of hydrological and biogeochemical data. We envision a framework in which: (1) ML-aided data reconstructions enable the merger of data sources into a unified geospatial product; (2) automated detection techniques are used to improve the knowledge of complex soil processes and interactions; and (3) this knowledge is leveraged and incorporated into models through AI-based emulators to distinctly connect the land and atmospheric compartments of the water cycle in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Parametric Sensitivity Comparison of Simulation Models for Flyer Plate Impact Experiments

This paper compares the sensitivities of different modeling approaches for fundamental flyer plate impact experiments to variations of several input parameters. Two modeling approaches are used to model a copper flyer plate experiment: the CTH hydrodynamic code and the LS-DYNA code using the smoothed particle hydrodynamic (SPH) approach. Simulations using these two methods are compared to experimental data from a gas gun experiment in which a copper flyer plate impacted a copper target plate. The experiment was designed to cause spall in the target. Numerical simulations are conducted using typical input physics models including the Mie-Grüneisen equation of state, the Johnson-Cook compressive strength model, and a pressure cutoff (Pmin) model for tensile damage (spall). Effects of artificial viscosity, spall strength, and computational cell size are studied and discussed with the objective of improving the accuracy of these simulations.

CTH, smoothed particle hydrodynamics, SPH, Johnson↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insensitivity to propagation timing in a preview-enabled wind turbine control experiment

Lidar scanners are capable of taking measurements of a wind field upstream of a wind turbine. The wind turbine controller can use these measurements as a “preview” of future disturbances impacting the turbine. Such preview-enabled (or feedforward) controllers show superior performance to standard wind turbine control configurations based purely on a feedback architecture. To capitalize on the performance improvements that preview wind measurements can provide, feedforward control actions should be timed to coincide with the arrival of the wind field at the wind turbine location. However, the time of propagation of the wind field between the lidar measurement location and the wind turbine is not perfectly known. Moreover, the best time to take feedforward control action may not perfectly coincide with the true arrival time of the wind disturbance. This contribution presents results from an experiment where preview-enabled model predictive control was deployed on a fully-actuated, scaled model wind turbine operating in a wind tunnel testbed. In the study, we investigate the sensitivity of the controller performance to the assumed propagation delay using a range of wind input sequences. We find that the preview-enabled controller outperforms the feedback only case across a wide range of assumed propagation delays, demonstrating a level of robustness to the time alignment of the incoming disturbances.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Dense Particle Flow in Multistage and Obstructed Flow Receivers Using High Fidelity Simulations

Particles are a leading contender for next-generation, concentrating solar power technologies, and the design of the particle receiver is critical to minimize the levelized cost of electricity. Falling particle receivers (FPRs) are a viable receiver concept, but many new designs feature complex particle obstructions that include dense discrete phase flows. This creates additional challenges for modeling as particle-to-particle interactions (i.e., collisions) and particle drag become more complex. To improve upon existing modeling strategies, a CFD-DEM simulation capability was created by coupling two independent codes: Sierra/Fuego and LAMMPS. A suitable receiver model was then defined using a traditional continuum-based model for the air and a granular model for the particle curtain. A sensitivity study was executed using this model to determine the relevance of different granular model inputs on important quantities of interest in obstructed flow FPRs: the particle velocity and curtain opacity. The study showed that the granular model inputs had little effect on the particle velocity magnitude and curtain opacity after an obstruction.

Mills, Brantley↗

NASA NTRS1988

Evapotranspiration from nonuniform surfaces - A first approach for short-term numerical weather prediction

Observations of surface heterogeneity of soil moisture from scales of meters to hundreds of kilometers are discussed, and a relationship between grid element size and soil moisture variability is presented. An evapotranspiration model is presented which accounts for the variability of soil moisture, standing surface water, and vegetation internal and stomatal resistance to moisture flow from the soil. The mean values and standard deviations of these parameters are required as input to the model. Tests of this model against field observations are reported, and extensive sensitivity tests are presented which explore the importance of including subgrid-scale variability in an evapotranspiration model.

Wetzel, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Stability robustness improvement of direct eigenspace assignment based feedback systems using singular value sensitivities

A methodology to improve the stability robustness of feedback control systems designed using direct eigenspace assignment techniques is presented. The method consists of considering the sensitivity of the minimum singular value of the return difference transfer matrix at the plant input to small changes in the desired closed-loop eigenvalues and the specified elements of the desired closed-loop eigenvectors. Closed-form expressions for the gradient of the minimum return difference singular value with respect to desired closed-loop eigenvalue and eigenvector parameters are derived. Closed-form expressions for the gradients of the control feedback gains with respect to the specified eigenspace parameters are obtained as an intermediate step. The use of the gradient information to improve the guaranteed gain and phase margins in eigenspace assignment based designs is demonstrated by application to an advanced fighter aircraft.

Garg, Sanjay↗

NASA NTRS1989

Stability robustness improvement of direct eigenspace assignment based feedback systems using singular value sensitivities

Garg, Sanjay↗

NASA NTRS2002

Neural substrates linking balance control and anxiety

This communication provides an update of our understanding of the neurological bases for the close association between balance control and anxiety. New data suggest that a vestibulo-recipient region of the parabrachial nucleus (PBN) contains cells that respond to body rotation and position relative to gravity. The PBN, with its reciprocal relationships with the extended central amygdaloid nucleus, infralimbic cortex, and hypothalamus, appears to be an important node in a primary network that processes convergent vestibular, somatic, and visceral information processing to mediate avoidance conditioning, anxiety, and conditioned fear responses. Noradrenergic and serotonergic projections to the vestibular nuclei also have parallel connections with anxiety pathways. The coeruleo-vestibular pathway originates in caudal locus coeruleus (LC) and provides regionally specialized noradrenergic input to the vestibular nuclei, which likely mediate effects of alerting and vigilance on the sensitivity of vestibulo-motor circuits. Both serotonergic and nonserotonergic pathways from the dorsal raphe nucleus and the nucleus raphe obscurus also project differentially to the vestibular nuclei, and 5-HT(2A) receptors are expressed in amygdaloid and cortical targets of the PBN. It is proposed that the dorsal raphe nucleus pathway contributes to both (a) a tradeoff between motor and sensory (information gathering) aspects of responses to self-motion and (b) a calibration of the sensitivity of affective responses to aversive aspects of motion. This updated neurologic model continues to be a synthetic schema for investigating the neurological and neurochemical bases for comorbidity of balance disorders and anxiety disorders.

Review↗

NASA NTRS2020

Single-Photon Counting Detector Scalability for High Photon Efficiency Optical Communications Links

For high photon-efficiency deep space or low power optical communications links, such as the Orion Artemis-2 Optical Communications System (O2O) project, the received optical signal is attenuated to the extent that single- photon detectors are required. For direct-detection receivers operating at 1.55 µm wavelength, single-photon detectors including Geiger-mode InGaAs avalanche photon diodes (APDs), and in particular superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors (SNSPDs) offer the highest sensitivity and fastest detection speeds. However, these photon detectors exhibit a recovery time between registered input pulses, effectively reducing the detection efficiency over the recovery interval, resulting in missed photon detections, reduced count rate, and ultimately limiting the achievable data rate. A method to overcome this limitation is to divide the received optical signal into multiple detectors in parallel. Here we analyze this approach for a receiver designed to receive a high photon efficiency serially concatenated pulse position modulation (SCPPM) input waveform. From measured count rate and efficiency data using commercial SNSPDs, we apply a model from which we determine the effective detection efficiency, or blocking loss, for different input signal rates. We analyze the scalability of adding detectors in parallel for different modulation orders and background levels to achieve desired data rates. Finally we show tradeoffs between the number of detectors and the required received optical power, useful for real link design considerations.

Vyhnalek, Brian E.↗

NASA NTRS2025

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessments of Musculoskeletal Computational Models for Simulating Astronaut Injuries Due to a Poor Spacesuit Fit

The musculoskeletal (MS) system of astronauts is subject to physiological changes, potentially leading to injuries due to the exposure to different gravitational environments experienced during spaceflight. These injuries can occur while an astronaut is performing an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) in space, on lunar or planetary surfaces or while wearing a spacesuit during terrestrial training for an EVA. The OpenSim MS modeling software can assess EVA induced MS injury mechanisms such as muscle strains, ligament injuries and joint injuries. One area of concern, since there are only a few different spacesuit sizes with limited adjustability, is the possibility of a poorly fitting spacesuit. This can cause unnatural joint motions and torques resulting in various MS injuries. A credibility assessment of the OpenSim modeling and simulation procedures is performed per NASA-STD-7009A to provide information on the credibility of the model’s use in simulating EVA related injury mechanisms. The credibility assessment evaluated various OpenSim models against the following eight credibility factors: data pedigree, input pedigree, code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, referent validation, results uncertainty and results robustness (sensitivity). The models evaluated for EVA injuries will require additional credibility factor analysis and upgrades to the model features, such as adding ligaments to a whole-body model, to reliably predict and analyze the EVA injuries expected to occur due to a poor spacesuit fit. The degree of elevation strategy required to increase the credibility assessment scores will depend on the model complexity and the injury mechanism.

Christopher A. Gallo↗

NASA NTRS2024

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessments of Musculoskeletal Computational Models for Simulating Astronaut Injuries Due to a Poor Spacesuit Fit

Christopher A Gallo↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detection and Perception of Sound by Eagles and Surrogate Raptors

One overarching objective of this program of study was the accumulation of objective, scientifically valid information relating to auditory performance of bald and golden eagles that may be used to guide the development of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies intended to discourage encroachment into wind energy air spaces. To that end, analyses aimed at the characterization of sensitivity to sound in bald and golden eagles, along with findings in the supra-threshold, dynamic frequency spaces related to response latencies and amplitudes, leads us to conclude that bald, and golden eagles navigate the same basic working auditory space, as in other known and thus far characterized members of the diurnal raptor family. Specifically, bald and golden eagles, along with other raptor species within the group, operate in an auditory space characterized by a frequency band at least four octaves wide and centered on 2 kHz, with an upper frequency limit between 6 and 10 kHz at 80 dB SPL and a lower frequency limit that almost certainly extends below 0.2 kHz. Consequently, we recommend that signal designers use these data as a guideline in efforts to design effective and efficient acoustic alerting/deterrent systems. It is important to note that signal energy broadcast outside of this frequency band at moderate levels will not contribute to the efficacy of a deterrent but will add an unnecessary fraction to the overall acoustic pollution budget. The importance of this consideration is heightened by contemporaneous concerns related to the transmission of noise broadcast by wind energy farms. In addition, based on analyses of data acquired from red-tailed hawks using the same experimental paradigm and data acquisition system, we conclude that auditory function in the red-tailed hawk is sufficiently like that observed in bald and golden eagles to permit its use as a surrogate species. Response waveforms, threshold-frequency curves, and input-output characteristics match those of eagles closely. It should be noted however, that differences in sensitivity and slightly extended high-frequency limits of hearing should be taken into account when extrapolating findings from one species to the others. Although the inclusion of behavioral tests of red-tailed hawks to acoustic stimuli was beyond the scope of this investigation, future efforts to assess response parameters like signal-type preference and habituation rate will further elucidate their suitability to serve as eagle surrogates in behavioral studies; nonetheless, the species in question are well matched with respect to basic auditory performance. A second essential objective of this program of study was the acoustic characterization of a subset of calls comprising the vocal repertoires of bald and golden eagles that may be used to supplement auditory performance findings in the effort to guide the development of acoustic alerting signals. With regard to that objective, the vocal repertoires of both bald and golden eagle species are rich and varied. While similar in spectrographic structure, distinctive differences are also clear. Generally, golden eagles produce some calls with shorter durations, and similar “sounding” calls exhibit distinctively different spectrographic patterns than those of bald eagles. Both species produce calls that contain a wide variety of nonlinear elements that operate to enhance the rich and varied nature of commonly observed vocal products. Comparison of the average power spectra of commonly observed bald and golden eagle calls with threshold-frequency curves leads to the conclusion that call energies fall within the frequency bounds of hearing. Further, the acoustic energy of calls considered in this report tend to fall into overlapping, but different frequency ranges of the acoustic sensitivity curve. This condition may encourage signal designers to vary the frequency content of acoustic deterrence signals in the field. Finally, preliminary observations relating to the tendencies and proclivities of bald eagles to attend to the acoustic landscape lead to the conclusion that eagles monitor their immediate sound environment assiduously. Individuals respond to a variety of natural and synthetic sound signals reliably and, perhaps most relevant in the context of the engineering of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies, habituation to most sounds considered in this effort was minimal. These preliminary results, while calling for extended behavioral testing, are promising and set the stage for the exportation of behavioral studies into real world scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗