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Building a Comprehensive Mill-Level Database for the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) Model of the U.S. Pulp and Paper Sector

Air emissions from the U.S. pulp and paper sector have been federally regulated since 1978; however, regulations are periodically reviewed and revised to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing emission standards. The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model for the pulp and paper sector is currently under development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and can be utilized to facilitate multi-pollutant, sectorbased analyses that are performed in conjunction with regulatory development. The model utilizes a multi-sector, multi-product dynamic linear modeling framework that evaluates the economic impact of emission reduction strategies for multiple air pollutants. The ISIS model considers facility-level economic, environmental, and technical parameters, as well as sector-level market data, to estimate the impacts of environmental regulations on the pulp and paper industry. Specifically, the model can be used to estimate U.S. and global market impacts of new or more stringent air regulations, such as impacts on product price, exports and imports, market demands, capital investment, and mill closures. One major challenge to developing a representative model is the need for an extensive amount of data. This article discusses the collection and processing of data for use in the model, as well as the methods used for building the ISIS pulp and paper database that facilitates the required analyses to support the air quality management of the pulp and paper sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Risk assessment for Industrial Control Systems quantifying availability using mean failure cost (MFC)

Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are commonly used in industries such as oil and natural gas, transportation, electric, water and wastewater, chemical, pharmaceutical, pulp and paper, food and beverage, as well as discrete manufacturing (e.g., automotive, aerospace, and durable goods.) SCADA systems are generally used to control dispersed assets using centralized data acquisition and supervisory control. Originally, ICS implementations were susceptible primarily to local threats because most of their components were located in physically secure areas (i.e., ICS components were not connected to IT networks or systems). The trend toward integrating ICS systems with IT networks (e.g., efficiency and the Internet of Things) provides significantly less isolation for ICS from the outside world thus creating greater risk due to external threats. Albeit, the availability of ICS/SCADA systems is critical to assuring safety, security and profitability. Such systems form the backbone of our national cyber-physical infrastructure. We extend the concept of mean failure cost (MFC) to address quantifying availability to harmonize well with ICS security risk assessment. This new measure is based on the classic formulation of Availability combined with Mean Failure Cost (MFC). The metric offers a computational basis to estimate the availability of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security violations or breakdowns (e.g., deliberate malicious failures).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring Continuous Seismic Data at an Industry Facility Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Seismic data recorded at industrial sites contain valuable information on anthropogenic activities. With advances in machine learning and computing power, new opportunities have emerged to explore the seismic wavefield in these complex environments. We applied two unsupervised machine learning algorithms to analyze continuous seismic data collected from an industrial facility in Texas, United States. The Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction algorithm was used to reduce the dimensionality of the data and generate 2D embeddings. Then, the Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise method was employed to automatically group these embeddings into distinct signal clusters. Our analysis of over 1400 hr (around 59 days) of continuous seismic data revealed five and seven signal clusters at two separate stations. At both stations, we identified clusters associated with background noise and vehicle traffic, with the latter’s temporal patterns aligning closely with the facility’s work schedule. Furthermore, the algorithms detected signal clusters from unknown sources and underline the ability of unsupervised machine learning for uncovering previously unrecognized patterns. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of unsupervised approaches in examining continuous seismic data without requiring prior knowledge or pre-existing labels.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PROGRESS ON MAGNETRON R&DS FOR INDUSTRIAL PARTICLE ACCELERATORS

The magnetron as an efficient RF source for a compact industrial SRF accelerator has been developed. The per-formance of injection phase lock on two independent magnetron transmitters operated at 915MHz, in CW mode with maximum power of 75kW each has been demon-strated to satisfy this application. This industrial type magnetron has AC transformer and the SCR rectifier on the DC anode power supply. Output power spectrum with phase locking can achieve noise reduction of -21.2 dBc at the 1st 60 Hz, -28.0 dBc at 1st 180 Hz with only -22.6 dBc injection power. Further control studies for 2×75 kW, 915 MHz power combing by WR975 magic-tee at Jefferson Lab (JLab) and for 4×1.2 kW, 2.45 GHz power combing by WR340 magic-tee at General Atomics (GA).

Rimmer, R.↗

CW copper injector for SRF industrial cryomodules

Compact SRF industrial linacs can provide unique parameters of the beam (>1 MW and >1-10 MeV) hardly achievable by normal conducting linacs within limited space. SRF technology was prohibitively expensive until the development of conduction cooling which opened the way for compact stand alone SRF systems suitable for industrial and research applications. Limited cooling capacity puts strict requirements on the beam parameters with zero losses of the beam on the SRF cavity walls. This implies strict requirements on the beam energy to be accepted by the cryomodule and most importantly the beam bunching with zero particles in between. We designed a CW normal conducting RF injector which consists of a gridded RF gun integrated with a first cell of a copper booster cavity to satisfy these requirements. Here we present a complete design of a booster cavity including beam dynamics, RF, thermomechanical and engineering design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Magnetron R&D Progress for High Efficiency CW RF Sources of Industrial Accelerators

After the demonstration of using high efficiency magnetron power to combine and aim to drive a radio frequency accelerator at 2450MHz in CW mode [1], we have used trim coils adding to a water-cooled magnetron and three amplitude modulation methods in an open-loop control to further suppress the 120Hz side-band noise to -46.7dBc level. We have also successfully demonstrated the phase-locking to an industrial grade cooking magnetron transmitter at 915MHz with a 75kW CW power delivered to a water load by using a -26.6dBc injection signal. The sideband noise at 360Hz from the 3-Phase SCRs DC power supply can be reduced to -16.2dBc level. Their power combing scheme and higher power application to industrial accelerators are foreseeing.

Wang, H.↗

Compact, High-Power Superconducting Electron Linear Accelerators for MW Industrial Applications

Fermilab has developed a novel concept for an industrial electron linac using Nb₃Sn coating technology and conduction cooling. We will show the range of multi-cavity linac designs targeted toward various applications. We will also discuss technology development status with results on conduction cooling of SRF cavities based on cryocoolers, which removes the need for liquid Helium, thus making SRF technology accessible to industrial applications. These conduction-cooled linacs can generate electron beam energies up to 10 MeV in continuous-wave operation and can reach higher power (>=1 MW) by combing several modules. Compact and light enough to mount on mobile platforms, our machine is anticipated to enable new in-situ environmental remediation applications such as waste-water treatment for urban areas, X-ray medical device sterilization, and innovative pavement applications. We also show cost-economics and key R&D areas that much be addressed for a practical machine.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Efficient continuous-wave normal conducting accelerator for industrial applications

A normal conducting, high power, high efficiency copper linear accelerator prototype is being developed for industrial applications. The system will be powered by low-cost high-efficiency magnetron RF sources and will use a gridded thermionic cathode electron gun. Leveraging the significant accelerator expertise at JLab and industry partners, these technologies will be combined to deliver high-power (>100 kW) electron beams with energies of 1 MeV or higher that are cost-effective to produce and operate. The design is modular such that energy and power can be increased by adding additional sections as required. The status of the design, prototype fabrication and plans for a beam demonstration at JLab are described.

Accelerator Physics↗

National Residential Efficiency Measures Database Aimed at Reducing Risk for Residential Retrofit Industry [Fact Sheet]

This technical highlight describes NREL research to develop a publicly available database of energy retrofit measures containing performance characteristics and cost estimates for nearly 3,000 measures. Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have developed the National Residential Efficiency Measures Database, a public database that characterizes the performance and costs of common residential energy efficiency measures. The data are available for use in software programs that evaluate cost-effective retrofit measures to improve the energy efficiency of residential buildings. The database provides a single, consistent source of current data for DOE and private-sector energy audit and simulation software tools and the retrofit industry. The database will reduce risk for residential retrofit industry stakeholders by providing a central, publicly vetted source of up-to-date information.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

HFC Concrete: A Low-­Energy, Carbon-Dioxide­-Negative Solution for reducing Industrial Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Final Technical Report)

Solidia/CCSM received funding for further research and development of its Low Temperature Solidification Process (LTS), which is used to create hydrate-free concrete (HFC). LTS/HFC is a technology/materials platform that offers wide applicability in the built infrastructure. Most importantly, it provides a means of making concrete without Portland cement. Cement and concrete production is a major consumer of energy and source of industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The primary goal of this project was to develop and commercialize a novel material, HFC, which by replacing traditional concrete and cement, reduces both energy use and GHG emissions in the built infrastructure. Traditional concrete uses Portland Cement (PC) as a binder. PC production involves calcination of limestone at ~1450°C, which releases significant amounts of CO 2 gas to the atmosphere and consumes a large amount of energy due to the high temperature required. In contrast, HFC is a carbonate-based hydrate-free concrete (HFC) that consumes CO 2 gas in its production. HFC is made by reaction of silicate minerals with CO 2 at temperatures below 100°C, more than an order-of-magnitude below the temperature required to make PC. Because of this significant difference in temperature, it is estimated that we will be able to reduce energy use in the cement and concrete industry by up to 30 trillion Btu by 2020. Because of the insulating properties of HFC, we believe we will also be able to significantly reduce energy use in the Building sector, though the extent of this saving is not yet quantified. It is estimated that production of a tonne of PC-based concrete requires about 6.2 million Btu of energy and produces over 1 tonne of CO 2 emissions (Choate, 2003). These can be reduced to 1.9 million Btu and 0.025 tonnes of CO 2 emissions per tonne of HFC (with overall CO 2 -negativity possible by increasing carbonation yield). In this way, by replacing PC-based concrete with HFC in infrastructure we can reduce energy use in concrete production by 70%, and reduce CO 2 emissions by 98%; thus the potential to reduce the impact of building materials on global warming and climate change is highly significant. Low Temperature Solidification (LTS) is a breakthrough technology that enables the densification of inorganic materials via a hydrothermal process. The resulting product exhibits excellent control of chemistry and microstructure, to provide durability and mechanical performance that exceeds that of concrete or natural stone. The technology can be used in a wide range of applications including facade panels, interior tiles, roof tiles, countertops, and pre-cast concrete. Replacing traditional building materials and concrete in these applications will result in significant reduction in both energy consumption and CO 2 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cyber Security Challenges in Using Cloud Computing in the Electric Utility Industry

This document presents a summary of cyber security challenges associated with utilization of cloud computing in the electric utility industry. The reader is assumed to have familiarity with both the operational processes of the utility industry and cloud computing, including public (e.g., Amazon EC2, Microsoft Azure) or private clouds. We also assume that the reader is familiar with basic networking and web infrastructure constructs. Further, we recommend that the reader reviews the information presented in (Birman 2011; NIST 2012).

Cloud Computing↗

Ultra-High Efficiency and Low-Emissions Combustion Technology for Manufacturing Industries

The purpose of this research was to develop and test a transformational combustion technology for high temperature furnaces to reduce the energy intensity and carbon footprint of U.S. manufacturing industries such as steel, aluminum, glass, metal casting, and petroleum refining. A new technology based on internal and/or external Flue Gas Recirculation (FGR) along with significant enhancement in flame radiation was developed. It produces "Radiative Flameless Combustion (RFC)" and offers tremendous energy efficiency and pollutant reduction benefits over and above the now popular "flameless combustion." It will reduce the energy intensity (or fuel consumption per unit system output) by more than 50% and double the furnace productivity while significantly reducing pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions (10^3 times reduction in NOx and 10 times reduction in CO & hydrocarbons and 3 times reduction in CO2). Product quality improvements are also expected due to uniform radiation, as well as, reduction in scale/dross formation is expected because of non-oxidative atmosphere. RFC is inexpensive, easy to implement, and it was successfully tested in a laboratory-scale furnace at the University of Michigan during the course of this work. A first-ever theory with gas and particulate radiation was also developed. Numerical programs were also written to design an industrial-scale furnace. Nine papers were published (or are in the process of publication). We believe that this early stage research adequately proves the concept through laboratory experiments, modeling and computational models. All this work is presented in the published papers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

EEB Hub Regional Sankey Diagram: Philadelphia Authority for Industrial Development Historical and Forecast Energy by Planned Use at the Philadelphia Navy Yard

The Energy Efficient Buildings Hub (EEB Hub) is a DOE-funded center, focused on improving the energy use in commercial and large-scale residential buildings. One of the Hub’s goals has been to develop the means and methods to reduce energy use in commercial buildings by 20 percent by 2020. Understanding energy use in buildings is a key component to managing energy use at multiple scales, from the building to the city, to the region. Sankey diagrams are an accessible tool to visualize energy flows, and help identify opportunities to deploy energy saving technologies. A campus-level Sankey diagram was previously generated from 2010-2011 data for ~100 metered Navy Yard buildings to quantify natural gas and electricity usage by principal building activity. As these properties are renovated, the energy consumption and building principal activities are being updated and modified. To depict the multi-year time lapse of regional electricity distribution in the Navy Yard, LLNL generated Sankey diagrams using data from 36 properties (buildings, developments, equipment) used to develop Philadelphia Authority for Industrial Development’s (PIDC) Navy Yard Master Energy Plan (NYEMP). The diagrams presented in this report depict ~10 building use types and the yearly changes in forecasted usage in GWh from 2011 to 2022. The forecast captures increases in regional energy use from planned building additions and renovations and yearly increases for existing buildings. From 2009 to 2022, there is approximately 5.6 million square feet of planned additions and renovations. The largest addition of properties are for office (~ 2.3 million square feet for dedicated office, and larger for shared office space) and residential space (~1 million square feet). Until 2014, the largest user of energy is for flex space, reaching a forecasted 11.4 GWh. In 2015-2016, the largest forecasted user is for a data center reaching ~25.7 GWh. After 2016, the largest consumers are either for office space (reaching 63.2 GWh forecast in 2022), or heavy industry (68 GWh forecast in 2022).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Recovery Act: Innovative CO 2 Sequestration from Flue Gas Using Industrial Sources and Innovative Concept for Beneficial CO 2 Use

The overall goal of this DOE Phase 2 project was to further develop and conduct pilot-scale and field testing of a biomimetic in-duct scrubbing system for the capture of gaseous CO 2 coupled with sequestration of captured carbon by carbonation of alkaline industrial wastes. The Phase 2 project, reported on here, combined efforts in enzyme development, scrubber optimization, and sequestrant evaluations to perform an economic feasibility study of technology deployment. The optimization of carbonic anhydrase (CA) enzyme reactivity and stability are critical steps in deployment of this technology. A variety of CA enzyme variants were evaluated for reactivity and stability in both bench scale and in laboratory pilot scale testing to determine current limits in enzyme performance. Optimization of scrubber design allowed for improved process economics while maintaining desired capture efficiencies. A range of configurations, materials, and operating conditions were examined at the Alcoa Technical Center on a pilot scale scrubber. This work indicated that a cross current flow utilizing a specialized gas-liquid contactor offered the lowest system operating energy. Various industrial waste materials were evaluated as sources of alkalinity for the scrubber feed solution and as sources of calcium for precipitation of carbonate. Solids were mixed with a simulated sodium bicarbonate scrubber blowdown to comparatively examine reactivity. Supernatant solutions and post-test solids were analyzed to quantify and model the sequestration reactions. The best performing solids were found to sequester between 2.3 and 2.9 moles of CO 2 per kg of dry solid in 1-4 hours of reaction time. These best performing solids were cement kiln dust, circulating dry scrubber ash, and spray dryer absorber ash. A techno-economic analysis was performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the proposed carbon capture and sequestration process in full-scale at an aluminum smelter and a refinery location. For both cases the in-duct scrubber technology was compared to traditional amine- based capture. Incorporation of the laboratory results showed that for the application at the aluminum smelter, the in-duct scrubber system is more economical than traditional methods. However, the reverse is true for the refinery case, where the bauxite residue is not effective enough as a sequestrant, combined with challenges related to contaminants in the bauxite residue accumulating in and fouling the scrubber absorbent. Sensitivity analyses showed that the critical variables by which process economics could be improved are enzyme concentration, efficiency, and half-life. At the end of the first part of the Phase 2 project, a gate review (DOE Decision Zero Gate Point) was conducted to decide on the next stages of the project. The original plan was to follow the pre-testing phase with a detailed design for the field testing. Unfavorable process economics, however, resulted in a decision to conclude the project before moving to field testing. It is noted that CO 2 Solutions proposed an initial solution to reduce process costs through more advanced enzyme management, however, DOE program requirements restricting any technology development extending beyond 2014 as commercial deployment timeline did not allow this solution to be undertaken.

Dando, Neal↗

Phases 1 & 2—Coal-Based Oxy-Fuel System Evaluation and Combustor Development and Phase 2A—Recovery Act: Oxy-Fuel Turbomachinery Development for Energy Intensive Industrial Applications (Final Report, Rev.1)

Clean Energy Systems, Inc. (CES) partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory in 2005 to study and develop a competing technology for use in future fossil-fueled power generation facilities that could operate with near zero emissions. CES’s background in oxy-fuel (O-F) rocket technology lead to the award of Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-05NT42645, “Coal-Based Oxy-Fuel System Evaluation and Combustor Development,” where CES was to first evaluate the potential of these O-F power cycles, then develop the detailed design of a commercial-scale O-F combustor for use in these clean burning fossil-fueled plants. Throughout the studies, CES found that in order to operate at competitive cycle efficiencies a high-temperature intermediate pressure turbine was required. This led to an extension of the Agreement for, “Oxy-Fuel Turbomachinery Development for Energy Intensive Industrial Applications” where CES was to also develop an intermediate-pressure O-F turbine (OFT) that could be deployed in O-F industrial plants that capture and sequester >99% of produced CO 2 , at competitive cycle efficiencies using diverse fuels. The following report details CES’ activities from October 2005 through March 2013, to evaluate O-F power cycles, develop and validate detailed designs of O-F combustors (main and reheat), and to design, manufacture, and test a commercial-scale OFT, under the three-phase Cooperative Agreement.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Recovery Act: Oxy-Combustion Technology Development for Industrial-Scale Boiler Applications

Alstom Power Inc. (Alstom), under U.S. DOE/NETL Cooperative Agreement No. DE-NT0005290, is conducting a development program to generate detailed technical information needed for application of oxy-combustion technology. The program is designed to provide the necessary information and understanding for the next step of large-scale commercial demonstration of oxy combustion in tangentially fired boilers and to accelerate the commercialization of this technology. The main project objectives include: • Design and develop an innovative oxyfuel system for existing tangentially-fired boiler units that minimizes overall capital investment and operating costs. • Evaluate performance of oxyfuel tangentially fired boiler systems in pilot scale tests at Alstom’s 15 MWth tangentially fired Boiler Simulation Facility (BSF). • Address technical gaps for the design of oxyfuel commercial utility boilers by focused testing and improvement of engineering and simulation tools. • Develop the design, performance and costs for a demonstration scale oxyfuel boiler and auxiliary systems. • Develop the design and costs for both industrial and utility commercial scale reference oxyfuel boilers and auxiliary systems that are optimized for overall plant performance and cost. • Define key design considerations and develop general guidelines for application of results to utility and different industrial applications. The project was initiated in October 2008 and the scope extended in 2010 under an ARRA award. The project completion date was April 30, 2014. Central to the project is 15 MWth testing in the BSF, which provided in-depth understanding of oxy-combustion under boiler conditions, detailed data for improvement of design tools, and key information for application to commercial scale oxy-fired boiler design. Eight comprehensive 15 MWth oxy-fired test campaigns were performed with different coals, providing detailed data on combustion, emissions, and thermal behavior over a matrix of fuels, oxyprocess variables and boiler design parameters. Significant improvement of CFD modeling tools and validation against 15 MWth experimental data has been completed. Oxy-boiler demonstration and large reference designs have been developed, supported with the information and knowledge gained from the 15 MWth testing. The results from the 15 MWth testing in the BSF and complimentary bench-scale testing are addressed in this volume (Volume II) of the final report. The results of the modeling efforts (Volume III) and the oxy boiler design efforts (Volume IV) are reported in separate volumes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

United States Industrial Sector Energy End Use Analysis

The United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA) conducts the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) to provide detailed data on energy consumption in the manufacturing sector. The survey is a sample of approximately 15,000 manufacturing establishments selected from the Economic Census - Manufacturing Sector. MECS provides statistics on the consumption of energy by end uses (e.g., boilers, process, electric drives, etc.) disaggregated by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) categories. The manufacturing sector (NAICS Sector 31-33) consists of all manufacturing establishments in the 50 States and the District of Columbia. According to the NAICS, the manufacturing sector comprises establishments engaged in the mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products. The establishments are physical facilities such as plants, factories, or mills. For many of the sectors in the MECS datasets, information is missing because the reported energy use is less than 0.5 units or BTUs, or is withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual establishments, or is withheld because the standard error is greater than 50%. We infer what the missing information likely are using several approximations techniques. First, much of the missing data can be easily calculated by adding or subtracting other values reported by MECS. If this is not possible (e.g. two data are missing), we look at historic MECS reports to help identify the breakdown of energy use in the past and assume it remained the same for the current MECS. Lastly, if historic data is also missing, we assume that 3 digit NAICS classifications predict energy use in their 4, 5, or 6 digit NAICS sub-classifications, or vice versa. Along with addressing data gaps, end use energy is disaggregated beyond the specified MECS allocations using additional industry specific energy consumption data. The result is a completed table of energy end use by sector with mechanical drives broken down by pumps, fans, compressed air, and drives.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗