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At least 847 records · Page 47

Water cycling between ocean and mantle: Super-earths need not be waterworlds

Large terrestrial planets are expected to have muted topography and deep oceans, implying that most super-Earths should be entirely covered in water, so-called waterworlds. This is important because waterworlds lack a silicate weathering thermostat so their climate is predicted to be less stable than that of planets with exposed continents. In other words, the continuously habitable zone for waterworlds is much narrower than for Earth-like planets. A planet's water is partitioned, however, between a surface reservoir, the ocean, and an interior reservoir, the mantle. Plate tectonics transports water between these reservoirs on geological timescales. Degassing of melt at mid-ocean ridges and serpentinization of oceanic crust depend negatively and positively on seafloor pressure, respectively, providing a stabilizing feedback on long-term ocean volume. Motivated by Earth's approximately steady-state deep water cycle, we develop a two-box model of the hydrosphere and derive steady-state solutions to the water partitioning on terrestrial planets. Critically, hydrostatic seafloor pressure is proportional to surface gravity, so super-Earths with a deep water cycle will tend to store more water in the mantle. We conclude that a tectonically active terrestrial planet of any mass can maintain exposed continents if its water mass fraction is less than ∼0.2%, dramatically increasing the odds that super-Earths are habitable. The greatest source of uncertainty in our study is Earth's current mantle water inventory: the greater its value, the more robust planets are to inundation. Lastly, we discuss how future missions can test our hypothesis by mapping the oceans and continents of massive terrestrial planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The close binary frequency of Wolf-Rayet stars as a function of metallicity in M31 and M33

Massive star evolutionary models generally predict the correct ratio of WC-type and WN-type Wolf-Rayet stars at low metallicities, but underestimate the ratio at higher (solar and above) metallicities. One possible explanation for this failure is perhaps single-star models are not sufficient and Roche-lobe overflow in close binaries is necessary to produce the 'extra' WC stars at higher metallicities. However, this would require the frequency of close massive binaries to be metallicity dependent. Here we test this hypothesis by searching for close Wolf-Rayet binaries in the high metallicity environments of M31 and the center of M33 as well as in the lower metallicity environments of the middle and outer regions of M33. After identifying ∼100 Wolf-Rayet binaries based on radial velocity variations, we conclude that the close binary frequency of Wolf-Rayets is not metallicity dependent and thus other factors must be responsible for the overabundance of WC stars at high metallicities. However, our initial identifications and observations of these close binaries have already been put to good use as we are currently observing additional epochs for eventual orbit and mass determinations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The origin of the X-ray emission from the high-velocity cloud MS30.7–81.4–118

A soft X-ray enhancement has recently been reported toward the high-velocity cloud MS30.7–81.4–118 (MS30.7), a constituent of the Magellanic Stream. In order to investigate the origin of this enhancement, we have analyzed two overlapping XMM-Newton observations of this cloud. We find that the X-ray enhancement is ∼6' or ∼100 pc across, and is concentrated to the north and west of the densest part of the cloud. We modeled the X-ray enhancement with a variety of spectral models. A single-temperature equilibrium plasma model yields a temperature of (3.69{sub −0.44}{sup +0.47})×10{sup 6} K and a 0.4-2.0 keV luminosity of 7.9 × 10{sup 33} erg s{sup –1}. However, this model underpredicts the on-enhancement emission around 1 keV, which may indicate the additional presence of hotter plasma (T ≳ 10{sup 7} K), or that recombination emission is important. We examined several different physical models for the origin of the X-ray enhancement. We find that turbulent mixing of cold cloud material with hot ambient material, compression or shock heating of a hot ambient medium, and charge exchange reactions between cloud atoms and ions in a hot ambient medium all lead to emission that is too faint. In addition, shock heating in a cool or warm medium leads to emission that is too soft (for reasonable cloud speeds). We find that magnetic reconnection could plausibly power the observed X-ray emission, but resistive magnetohydrodynamical simulations are needed to test this hypothesis. If magnetic reconnection is responsible for the X-ray enhancement, the observed spectral properties could potentially constrain the magnetic field in the vicinity of the Magellanic Stream.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling the formation of globular cluster systems in the Virgo cluster

The mass distribution and chemical composition of globular cluster (GC) systems preserve fossil record of the early stages of galaxy formation. The observed distribution of GC colors within massive early-type galaxies in the ACS Virgo Cluster Survey (ACSVCS) reveals a multi-modal shape, which likely corresponds to a multi-modal metallicity distribution. We present a simple model for the formation and disruption of GCs that aims to match the ACSVCS data. This model tests the hypothesis that GCs are formed during major mergers of gas-rich galaxies and inherit the metallicity of their hosts. To trace merger events, we use halo merger trees extracted from a large cosmological N-body simulation. We select 20 halos in the mass range of 2 × 10{sup 12} to 7 × 10{sup 13} M {sub ☉} and match them to 19 Virgo galaxies with K-band luminosity between 3 × 10{sup 10} and 3 × 10{sup 11} L {sub ☉}. To set the [Fe/H] abundances, we use an empirical galaxy mass-metallicity relation. We find that a minimal merger ratio of 1:3 best matches the observed cluster metallicity distribution. A characteristic bimodal shape appears because metal-rich GCs are produced by late mergers between massive halos, while metal-poor GCs are produced by collective merger activities of less massive hosts at early times. The model outcome is robust to alternative prescriptions for cluster formation rate throughout cosmic time, but a gradual evolution of the mass-metallicity relation with redshift appears to be necessary to match the observed cluster metallicities. We also affirm the age-metallicity relation, predicted by an earlier model, in which metal-rich clusters are systematically several billion younger than their metal-poor counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE ORIGIN OF BLACK HOLE SPIN IN GALACTIC LOW-MASS X-RAY BINARIES

Galactic field black hole (BH) low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) are believed to form in situ via the evolution of isolated binaries. In the standard formation channel, these systems survived a common envelope phase, after which the remaining helium core of the primary star and the subsequently formed BH are not expected to be highly spinning. However, the measured spins of BHs in LMXBs cover the whole range of spin parameters. We propose here that the BH spin in LMXBs is acquired through accretion onto the BH after its formation. In order to test this hypothesis, we calculated extensive grids of detailed binary mass-transfer sequences. For each sequence, we examined whether, at any point in time, the calculated binary properties are in agreement with their observationally inferred counterparts of 16 Galactic LMXBs. The ''successful'' sequences give estimates of the mass that the BH has accreted since the onset of Roche-Lobe overflow. We find that in all Galactic LMXBs with measured BH spin, the origin of the spin can be accounted for by the accreted matter, and we make predictions about the maximum BH spin in LMXBs where no measurement is yet available. Furthermore, we derive limits on the maximum spin that any BH can have depending on current properties of the binary it resides in. Finally we discuss the implication that our findings have on the BH birth-mass distribution, which is shifted by ∼1.5 M {sub ☉} toward lower masses, compared to the currently observed one.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probing cosmological isotropy with type Ia supernovae

We investigate the validity of the cosmological principle by mapping the cosmological parameters H{sub 0} and q{sub 0} through the celestial sphere. In our analysis, which is performed in a low-redshift regime to follow a model-independent approach, we use two compilations of type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia), namely the Union2.1 and the JLA data sets. First, we show that the angular distributions for both SNe Ia data sets are statistically anisotropic at a high confidence level (p-value < 0.0001), particularly the JLA sample. Then we find that the cosmic expansion and acceleration are mainly of dipolar type, with maximal anisotropic expansion [acceleration] pointing toward (l,b)≃(326{sup ∘},12{sup ∘}) [(l,b)≃(174{sup ∘},27{sup ∘})], and (l,b)≃(58{sup ∘},−60{sup ∘}) [(l,b)≃(225{sup ∘},51{sup ∘})] for the Union2.1 and JLA data, respectively. Second, we use a geometrical method to test the hypothesis that the non-uniformly distributed SNe Ia events could introduce anisotropic imprints on the cosmological expansion and acceleration. For the JLA compilation, we found significant correlations between the celestial distribution of data points and the directional studies of H{sub 0} and q{sub 0}, suggesting that these results can be attributed to the intrinsic anisotropy of the sample. In the case of the Union2.1 data, nonetheless, these correlations are less pronounced, and we verify that the dipole asymmetry found in the H{sub 0} analyses coincides with the well-known bulk-flow motion of our local group. From these analyses, we conclude that the directional asymmetry on the cosmological parameter maps are mainly either of local origin or due to celestial incompleteness of current SNe Ia samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE CHANDRA MULTI-WAVELENGTH PROJECT: OPTICAL SPECTROSCOPY AND THE BROADBAND SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTIONS OF X-RAY-SELECTED AGNs

From optical spectroscopy of X-ray sources observed as part of the Chandra Multi-wavelength Project (ChaMP), we present redshifts and classifications for a total of 1569 Chandra sources from our targeted spectroscopic follow-up using the FLWO/1.5 m, SAAO/1.9 m, WIYN 3.5 m, CTIO/4 m, KPNO/4 m, Magellan/6.5 m, MMT/6.5 m, and Gemini/8 m telescopes, and from archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopy. We classify the optical counterparts as 50% broad-line active galactic nuclei (AGNs), 16% emission line galaxies, 14% absorption line galaxies, and 20% stars. We detect QSOs out to z {approx} 5.5 and galaxies out to z {approx} 3. We have compiled extensive photometry, including X-ray (ChaMP), ultraviolet (GALEX), optical (SDSS and ChaMP-NOAO/MOSAIC follow-up), near-infrared (UKIDSS, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and ChaMP-CTIO/ISPI follow-up), mid-infrared (WISE), and radio (FIRST and NVSS) bands. Together with our spectroscopic information, this enables us to derive detailed spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for our extragalactic sources. We fit a variety of template SEDs to determine bolometric luminosities, and to constrain AGNs and starburst components where both are present. While {approx}58% of X-ray Seyferts (10{sup 42} erg s{sup -1} < L{sub 2-10keV} <10{sup 44} erg s{sup -1}) require a starburst event (>5% starburst contribution to bolometric luminosity) to fit observed photometry only 26% of the X-ray QSO (L{sub 2-10keV} >10{sup 44} erg s{sup -1}) population appear to have some kind of star formation contribution. This is significantly lower than for the Seyferts, especially if we take into account torus contamination at z > 1 where the majority of our X-ray QSOs lie. In addition, we observe a rapid drop of the percentage of starburst contribution as X-ray luminosity increases. This is consistent with the quenching of star formation by powerful QSOs, as predicted by the merger model, or with a time lag between the peak of star formation and QSO activity. We have tested the hypothesis that there should be a strong connection between X-ray obscuration and star formation but we do not find any association between X-ray column density and star formation rate both in the general population or the star-forming X-ray Seyferts. Our large compilation also allows us to report here the identification of 81 X-ray Bright Optically inactive Galaxies, 78 z > 3 X-ray sources, and eight Type-2 QSO candidates. Also, we have identified the highest redshift (z = 5.4135) X-ray-selected QSO with optical spectroscopy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Plasma diagnostics and modeling of lithium-containing plasmas

Thin-film deposition from chemically reactive multi-component plasmas is complex, and the lack of electron collision cross-sections for even the most common metalorganic precursors and their fragments complicates their modeling based on fundamental plasma physics. This study focuses on understanding the plasma physics and chemistry in argon (Ar) plasmas containing lithium bis (trimethylsilyl) amide used to deposit Li x Si y thin films. These films are emerging as potential solid electrolytes for lithium-ion batteries, and the Li-to-Si ratio is a crucial parameter to enhance their ionic conductivity. We deposited Li x Si y films in an axial flow-through plasma reactor and studied the factors that determine the variation of the Li-to-Si ratio in films deposited at various points on a substrate spanning the entire reactor axis. While the Li-to-Si ratio is 1:2 in the precursor, the Li-to-Si ratio is as high as 3:1 in films deposited near the plasma entrance and decreases to 1:1 for films deposited downstream. Optical emission from the plasma is dominated by Li emission near the entrance, but Li emission disappears downstream, which we attribute to the complete consumption of the precursor. We hypothesized that the axially decreasing precursor concentration affects the electron energy distribution function in a way that causes different dissociation efficiencies for the production of Li and Si. We used Li line intensities to estimate the local precursor concentration and Ar line ratios to estimate the local reduced electric field to test this hypothesis. This analysis suggests that the mean electron energy increases along the reactor axis with decreasing precursor concentration. As a result, the decreasing Li-to-Si ratio with axially decreasing precursor concentration may be explained by Li release from the precursor having lower threshold energy than Si release.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Low-energy enhancement and fluctuations of γ -ray strength functions in 56,57 Fe: test of the Brink–Axel hypothesis

Nuclear level densities and γ-ray strength functions of 56,57 Fe have been extracted from proton-γ coincidences. A low-energy enhancement in the γ-ray strength functions up to a factor of 30 over common theoretical E1 models is confirmed. Angular distributions of the low-energy enhancement in 57 Fe indicate its dipole nature, in agreement with findings for 56 Fe. The high statistics and the excellent energy resolution of the large-volume LaBr 3 (Ce) detectors allowed for a thorough analysis of γ strength as function of excitation energy. Taking into account the presence of strong Porter–Thomas fluctuations, there is no indication of any significant excitation energy dependence in the γ-ray strength function, which is in support of the generalized Brink–Axel hypothesis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Effective pair potential for random fcc CoCrFeMnNi alloys

The single-phase equiatomic CoCrFeMnNi alloy is a random solid solution of five elements on the face-centered cubic lattice, whose pure constituents crystallize in very different structures and exhibit diverse magnetic properties. Due to the randomness of the alloy, 80% of nearest neighbor bonds are between unlike elements and thus the details of bonding in pure structures are less important. The elastic moduli of this alloy give rise to small Cauchy pressure C 12 - C 44 , which suggests that the dominant part of bonding may be described by a simple pair potential. We test this hypothesis by developing a long-range Lennard-Jones potential in which the equilibrium crystal structures of pure constituents are taken as reference. The standard mixing rules for regular solutions are then adopted to obtain parameters for bonds between unlike elements in the quinary system. The transferability of this potential to quaternary CoCrFeNi, ternary CoCrNi, and binary FeNi alloys is investigated and the predictions compared with experiments and density functional theory calculations. By sampling over a large number of random configurations, we investigate the effect of compositional randomness on misfit volumes, energies of point defects and stacking faults, and the dislocation friction stresses experienced by moving edge and screw dislocations.

Materials Science↗

The topology and size of the universe from CMB temperature and polarization data

We analyze seven year and nine year WMAP temperature maps for signatures of three finite flat topologies M{sub 0} = T{sup 3}, M{sub 1} = T{sup 2} × R{sup 1}, and M{sub 2} = S{sup 1} × R{sup 2}. We use Monte-Carlo simulations with the Feldman-Cousins method to obtain confidence intervals for the size of the topologies considered. We analyze the V, W, and Q frequency bands along with the ILC map and find no significant difference in the results. The 95.5% confidence level lower bound on the size of the topology is 1.5L{sub 0} for M{sub 0}, 1.4L{sub 0} for M{sub 1}, and 1.1L{sub 0} for M{sub 2}, where L{sub 0} is the radius of the last scattering surface. Our results agree very well with the recently released results from the Planck temperature data. We show that the likelihood function is not Gaussian in the size, and therefore simulations are important for obtaining accurate bounds on the size. We then introduce the formalism for including polarization data in the analysis. The improvement that we find from WMAP polarization maps is small because of the high level of instrumental noise, but our forecast for Planck maps shows a much better improvement on the lower bound for L. For the M{sub 0} topology we expect an improvement on the lower bound of L from 1.7L{sub 0} to 1.9L{sub 0} at 95.5% confidence level. Using both polarization and temperature data is important because it tests the hypothesis that deviations in the TT spectrum at small l originate in the primordial perturbation spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Angular correlation of cosmic neutrinos with ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays and implications for their sources

Cosmic neutrino events detected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory with energy 0∼> 3 TeV have poor angular resolutions to reveal their origin. Ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs), with better angular resolutions at 0>6 EeV energies, can be used to check if the same astrophysical sources are responsible for producing both neutrinos and UHECRs. We test this hypothesis, with statistical methods which emphasize invariant quantities, by using data from the Pierre Auger Observatory, Telescope Array and past cosmic-ray experiments. We find that the arrival directions of the cosmic neutrinos are correlated with 0≥ 10 EeV UHECR arrival directions at confidence level ≈ 90%. The strength of the correlation decreases with decreasing UHECR energy and no correlation exists at energy 0∼ 6 EeV . A search in astrophysical databases within 3{sup o} of the arrival directions of UHECRs with energy 0≥ 10 EeV, that are correlated with the IceCube cosmic neutrinos, resulted in 18 sources from the Swift-BAT X-ray catalog with redshift z≤ 0.06. We also found 3 objects in the Kühr catalog of radio sources using the same criteria. The sources are dominantly Seyfert galaxies with Cygnus A being the most prominent member. We calculate the required neutrino and UHECR fluxes to produce the observed correlated events, and estimate the corresponding neutrino luminosity (25 TeV–2.2 PeV) and cosmic-ray luminosity (500 TeV–180 EeV), assuming the sources are the ones we found in the Swift-BAT and Kühr catalogs. We compare these luminosities with the X-ray luminosity of the corresponding sources and discuss possibilities of accelerating protons to 0∼> 10 EeV and produce neutrinos in these sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The angle-averaged squeezed limit of nonlinear matter N-point functions

Assuming Gaussian initial conditions, we show that in a certain, angle-averaged squeezed limit the N-point function of matter is related to the response of the matter power spectrum to a long-wavelength density perturbation, P{sup −1}d{sup nP}(k|δ{sub L})/dδ{sub L}{sup n}|{sub δ{sub L=0}}, with n=N−2. By performing N-body simulations with a homogeneous overdensity superimposed on a flat Friedmann-Robertson-Lemaȋtre-Walker (FRLW) universe using the separate universe approach, we obtain measurements of the nonlinear matter power spectrum response up to n=3, which is equivalent to measuring the fully nonlinear matter 3- to 5-point function in this squeezed limit. The sub-percent to few percent accuracy of those measurements is unprecedented. We then test the hypothesis that nonlinear N-point functions at a given time are a function of the linear power spectrum at that time, which is predicted in an Einstein-de Sitter (EdS) universe by standard perturbation theory (SPT) and its variants that are based on the ideal pressureless fluid equations. Specifically, we compare the responses computed from the separate universe simulations and simulations with a rescaled initial (linear) power spectrum amplitude. We find discrepancies of 10% at k≅ 0.2–0.5 h Mpc{sup −1} for 5- to 3-point functions at z=0. The discrepancy occurs at higher wavenumbers at z=2. Thus, theoretical predictions that are insensitive to the growth history, such as SPT and its variants assuming EdS, even when carried out to arbitrarily high order, are guaranteed to fail to describe matter N-point functions (N>2) around that scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraining the local variance of H {sub 0} from directional analyses

We evaluate the local variance of the Hubble Constant H {sub 0} with low-z Type Ia Supernovae (SNe). Our analyses are performed using a hemispherical comparison method in order to test whether taking the bulk flow motion into account can reconcile the measurement of the Hubble Constant H {sub 0} from standard candles ( H {sub 0} = 73.8±2.4 km s{sup -1} Mpc {sup -1}) with that of the Planck's Cosmic Microwave Background data ( H {sub 0} = 67.8 ± 0.9km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1}). We obtain that H {sub 0} ranges from 68.9±0.5 km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1} to 71.2±0.7 km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1} through the celestial sphere (1 σ uncertainty), implying a Hubble Constant maximal variance of δ H {sub 0} = (2.30±0.86) km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1} towards the ( l,b ) = (315°,27°) direction. Interestingly, this result agrees with the bulk flow direction estimates found in the literature, as well as previous evaluations of the H {sub 0} variance due to the presence of nearby inhomogeneities. We assess the statistical significance of this result with different prescriptions of Monte Carlo simulations, obtaining moderate statistical significance, i.e., 68.7% confidence level (CL) for such variance. Furthermore, we test the hypothesis of a higher H {sub 0} value in the presence of a bulk flow velocity dipole, finding some evidence for this result which, however, cannot be claimed to be significant due to the current large uncertainty in the SNe distance modulus. Then, we conclude that the tension between different H {sub 0} determinations can plausibly be caused to the bulk flow motion of the local Universe, even though the current incompleteness of the SNe data set, both in terms of celestial coverage and distance uncertainties, does not allow a high statistical significance for these results or a definitive conclusion about this issue.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Highly Resolved Large-Eddy Simulation of a Wind Turbine using an Actuator Line Model with Optimal Body Force Projection

When representing the blade aerodynamics with rotating actuator lines, the computed forces have to be projected back to the CFD flow field as a volumetric body force. That has been done in the past with a geometrically simple uniform three-dimensional Gaussian at each point along the blade. Here, we argue that the body force can be shaped in a way that better predicts the blade local flow field, the blade load distribution, and the formation of the tip/root vortices. In previous work, we have determined the optimal scales of circular and elliptical Gaussian kernels that best reproduce the local flow field in two-dimensions. Lastly, in this work we extend the analysis and applications by considering the full three-dimensional blade to test our hypothesis in a highly resolved Large Eddy Simulation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Correlated single- and few-electron backgrounds milliseconds after interactions in dual-phase liquid xenon time projection chambers

In this work, we characterize single- and few-electron backgrounds that are observed in dual-phase liquid xenon time projection chambers at timescales greatly exceeding a maximum drift time after an interaction. These instrumental backgrounds limit a detector's sensitivity to dark matter and cosmogenic neutrinos. Using the ~150g liquid xenon detector at Purdue University, we investigate how these backgrounds, produced after 122keV 57 Co Compton interactions, behave under different detector conditions. We find that the rates of single- and few-electron signals follow power-laws with time after the interaction. We observe linearly increasing rates with increased extraction field, and increased rates in the single-electron background with increased drift field. Normalizing the rates to the primary interaction's measured ionization signal, the rates increase linearly with the depth of the interaction. We test the hypothesis that infrared photons (1550nm) would stimulate and accelerate electron emission via photodetachment from impurities, but find that even 1 Watt of infrared light fails to reduce these backgrounds. We thus provide a characterization that can inform background models for low-energy rare event searches.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Ecological contingency in species shifts: downslope shifts of woody species under warming climate and land-use change

A predicted impact of a warming climate is an upslope shift of montane plant species. These upslope shifts may be amplified by land-use changes or attenuated by forest recoveries at low elevations where historical disturbances were ceased allowing for plant regrowth. Consequently, species may shift downslope back to low elevations where they had been previously harvested. The cessation-driven downslope shifts are hypothesized to dampen or even reverse climate-driven upslope shifts. We tested this hypothesis by a 20 year (1989–2009) forest inventory dataset from five mountainous areas in eastern China. In our study region, intense deforestation occurred mostly at low elevations until 1970, but was then ceased to facilitate natural forest recovery. Based on the analyses of 30 216 woody plants in 609 plots, we found that: (1) forest recovery occurred over the 20 year survey period, and increment rates of both recruitment and basal area increased up to 2004. However, in the last period (2004–2009), increment rates of basal area leveled off and recruitment was close to zero; (2) forest recovery was faster at lower elevations, as indicated by the higher increment rates there; (3) despite rising regional temperatures, the mean elevations of study species showed a downslope shift over the 20 years; and (4) the contribution of forest recovery to elevational shifts was supported by the fact that the species shifts were positively related to elevational changes in the recruitment increment, e.g. the negative (or downslope) shifts occurred in association with higher increments at lower elevations. These results suggest that, the cessation of disturbances and consequent lowland forest recovery had greater effects on the species distributions than did warming climate. In mountain systems that are being allowed to recover from historical disturbances, the effects of forest recovery on species distributions should be explicitly accounted for when assessing and predicting climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures

Abstract Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km 2 ) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘ C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling.

Debolskiy, Matvey V. (ORCID:0000000296343627)↗