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At least 847 records · Page 47

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Deciphering the small-angle scattering of polydisperse hard spheres using deep learning

We introduce a deep learning approach for analyzing the scattering function of the polydisperse hard sphere system. We use a variational autoencoder-based neural network to learn the bidirectional mapping between the scattering function and the system parameters, including the volume fraction and polydispersity. Such that the trained model serves both as a generator that produces a scattering function from the system parameters and an inferrer that extracts system parameters from the scattering function. We first generate a scattering dataset by carrying out molecular dynamics simulations of the polydisperse hard spheres modeled by the truncated-shifted Lennard-Jones model, then analyze the scattering function dataset using singular value decomposition to confirm the feasibility of dimensional compression. Then, we split the dataset into training and testing sets and train our neural network on the training set only. Our generator model produces a scattering function with significantly higher accuracy compared to the traditional Percus–Yevick approximation and β correction, and the inferrer model can extract the volume fraction and polydispersity with much higher accuracy than traditional model functions.

Ding, Lijie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000227454606)↗

Cutting force estimation from machine learning and physics-inspired data-driven models utilizing accelerometer measurements

Monitoring cutting forces for process control may be challenging because force measurements typically require invasive instrumentation. To remedy this situation, two new methods were recently developed to estimate cutting forces in real time based on the use of on-machine accelerometer measurements. One method uses machine learning, while another uses a physics-inspired data-driven approach, to generate a model that estimates cutting forces from on-machine accelerations. The estimated forces from both approaches were compared against cutting force data collected during various milling operations on several machine tools. The results reveal the advantages and disadvantages of each model to estimate real-time cutting forces.

Vogl, Greg↗

MetaFlux: Meta-learning global carbon fluxes from sparse spatiotemporal observations

We provide a global, long-term carbon flux dataset of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration generated using meta-learning, called MetaFlux. The idea behind meta-learning stems from the need to learn efficiently given sparse data by learning how to learn broad features across tasks to better infer other poorly sampled ones. Using meta-trained ensemble of deep models, we generate global carbon products on daily and monthly timescales at a 0.25-degree spatial resolution from 2001 to 2021, through a combination of reanalysis and remote-sensing products. Site-level validation finds that MetaFlux ensembles have lower validation error by 5–7% compared to their non-meta-trained counterparts. In addition, they are more robust to extreme observations, with 4–24% lower errors. We also checked for seasonality, interannual variability, and correlation to solar-induced fluorescence of the upscaled product and found that MetaFlux outperformed other machine-learning based carbon product, especially in the tropics and semi-arids by 10–40%. Overall, MetaFlux can be used to study a wide range of biogeochemical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced Steam-Electric Power Cycle for Advanced Reactor Concepts

This report presents improvements made to RELAP-7 for modeling Rankine power cycles, which are used on the secondary side of some advanced reactor concepts. For example, for a High-Temperature gas-cooled Reactor Pebble bed Module (HTR-PM), in the primary loop, helium transfers heat from the fuel to a steam generator, and on the secondary side, dry steam from the steam generator applies work to a turbine, which is converted into electrical power by a generator. After passing through the turbine, the steam passes through a condenser and pumped to the steam generator inlet, completing a Rankine cycle on the secondary side. This HTR-PM concept is used as an example to demonstrate a steam-electric power cycle capability in RELAP-7. This power cycle requires a number of different physical components, including a pump, compressor, turbine, steam generator, and condenser. The steam generator is modeled using a heat exchange between primary and secondary loops, and the condenser is modeled using a cooling source term. Recent efforts demonstrated preliminary models for the turbomachinery components (pump/compressor and turbine), but more physical models were required. Furthermore, several improvements were made for the robustness of mixed single-phase/two-phase flow present in a Rankine cycle.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

QUIC-URB and QUIC-fire extension to complex terrain: Development of a terrain-following coordinate system

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by CFD-based models like FIRETEC and WFDS because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage LES approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, typical for instance of the Western United States. In this paper, we describe the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. In particular, the paper presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captured the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. We report the model agreed well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimated speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field was obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire–atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain was highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect was addressed in this work). Results highlight that future work should focus on the implementation of parameterizations of wake-eddies, similar to QUIC-URB’s building parameterizations, and on thermodynamic-driven flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiation Belt Remediation: A Complex Engineered System (RBR-ACES) (Institutional Computing Report)

We have performed the simulation campaigns in support of LDRD-DR project Radiation Belt Remediation: A Complex Engineered System (RBR-ACES). This project involves modeling wave generation and wave propagation in plasma environment and studying the effect of waves on the distribution of high energy electrons with the focus on electrons appeared after a high-altitude nuclear explosion (HANE). One of the major goal of this research is strong validation of the numerical models with laboratory experiments and space-based experiments and observations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multiband Polarimetric Imaging of HR 4796A with the Gemini Planet Imager

HR4796A hosts a well-studied debris disk with a long history due to its high fractional luminosity and favorable inclination, which facilitate both unresolved and resolved observations. We present new J- and K {sub 1}-band images of the resolved debris disk HR4796A taken in the polarimetric mode of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI). The polarized intensity features a strongly forward-scattered brightness distribution and is undetected at the far side of the disk. The total intensity is detected at all scattering angles and also exhibits a strong forward-scattering peak. We use a forward-modeled geometric disk in order to extract geometric parameters, polarized fraction, and total intensity scattering phase functions for these data as well as H-band data previously taken by GPI. We find the polarized phase function becomes increasingly more forward-scattering as wavelength increases. We fit Mie and distribution of hollow spheres (DHS) grain models to the extracted functions. We find that it is possible to generate a satisfactory model for the total intensity using a DHS model, but not with a Mie model. We find that no single grain population of DHS or Mie grains of arbitrary composition can simultaneously reproduce the polarized fraction and total intensity scattering phase functions, indicating the need for more sophisticated grain models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

User behavior influence in transportation systems

Systems and methods described receive a request for a transportation plan for a user, wherein the request comprises a starting point and an ending point for a route. Systems and methods then generate a set of potential transportation plans for the route, determine an impact of a subset of plans in the set of potential transportation plans and estimate a likelihood of acceptance of the subset of plans in the set of potential transportation plans based on a personal preference model for the user. Systems and methods also select an influence strategy of the user based on a user model and generate a message recommending a selected plan from the subset of plans for the user, wherein the message is generated based on the selected influence strategy.

Klenk, Matthew↗

Resolving Dynamics in the Ensemble: Finding Paths through Intermediate States and Disordered Protein Structures

Proteins have been found to inhabit a diverse set of three-dimensional structures. The dynamics that govern protein interconversion between structures happen over a wide range of time scales-picoseconds to seconds. Our understanding of protein functions and dynamics is largely reliant upon our ability to elucidate physically populated structures. From an experimental structural characterization perspective, we are often limited to measuring the ensemble-averaged structure both in the steady-state and time-resolved regimes. Generating kinetic models and understanding protein structure–function relationships require atomistic knowledge of the populated states in the ensemble. Here, we present ensemble refinement methodologies that integrate time-resolved experimental signals with molecular dynamics models. We first discuss integration of experimental structural restraints to molecular models in disordered protein systems that adhere to the principle of maximum entropy for creating a complete set of ensemble structures. We then propose strategies to find kinetic pathways between the refined structures, using time-resolved inputs to guide molecular dynamics trajectories and the use of inference to generate tailored stimuli to prepare a desired ensemble of protein states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗

Gradient Field Detection Using Interference of Stimulated Microwave Optical Sidebands

Here, we demonstrate that stimulated microwave optical sideband generation using parametric frequency conversion can be utilized as a powerful technique for coherent state detection in atomic physics experiments. The technique has advantages over traditional absorption or polarization rotation-based measurements and enables the isolation of signal photons from probe photons. We outline a theoretical framework that accurately models sideband generation using a density matrix formalism. Using this technique, we demonstrate a novel intrinsic magnetic gradiometer that detects magnetic gradient fields between two spatially separated vapor cells by measuring the frequency of the beat note between sidebands generated within each cell. The sidebands are produced with high efficiency using parametric frequency conversion of a probe beam interacting with 87 Rb atoms in a coherent superposition of magnetically sensitive hyperfine ground states. Interference between the sidebands generates a low-frequency beat note whose frequency is determined by the magnetic field gradient between the two vapor cells. In contrast to traditional gradiometers the intermediate step of measuring the magnetic field experienced by the two vapor cells is unnecessary. We show that this technique can be readily implemented in a practical device by demonstrating a compact magnetic gradiometer sensor head with a sensitivity of 25 fT/cm/ √ Hz with a 4.4 cm baseline, while operating in a noisy laboratory environment unshielded from Earth’s field.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Autonomous phase mapping of gold nanoparticles synthesis with differentiable models of spectral shape

Autonomous experimentation–or self-driving labs–offers a systematic approach to accelerate materials discovery by integrating automated synthesis, characterization, and data-driven decision-making. We present a closed-loop workflow for the on-demand synthesis and structural characterization of colloidal gold nanoparticles, enabling direct mapping from composition to nanoscale structure. Our framework leverages differentiable models of spectral shape to address two central tasks in self-driving labs: (a) phase mapping, or identifying compositional regions with distinct structural behavior; and (b) material retrosynthesis, or optimizing compositions for target structure. Using functional data analysis, we develop a data-driven model with generative pre-training, active learning, and high-throughput experiments to predict spectral responses across composition space. We demonstrate the approach on seed-mediated growth of gold nanoparticles, showcasing its ability to extract design rules, reveal secondary interactions, and efficiently navigate morphology space. Gradient-based optimization of the models enables inverse design, making this a unified platform.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling and Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation of Synchronous Machine Governor

This paper introduces the development of a high-fidelity gas turbine governor model using a programmable logic controller for power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) validation. The governor model is integrated with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) PHIL test bed, featuring a 2-MVA synchronous machine and a 2.5-MW variable-speed drive, to emulate NG-driven HRSGs and CTs under various operational scenarios. The primary objective of this research is to study the grid-connected and islanding operations of conventional generation sources, with representative startup sequences including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramp-up, synchronization, and breaker closure. Preliminary results of the generator governor model on NREL PHIL platform, particularly using the 2.5-MW dynamometer system, offered significant insights into the modeling techniques, hardware integration, scaling, and real-world simulation dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Non-Blind Deblurring for Fluorescence: A Deformable Latent Space Approach with Kernel Parameterization

We report N\non-blind deblurring (NBD) is a modeling method of the image deblurring problem in computer vision, where the blurring kernel is known or can be externally estimated. In this paper, we attempt to solve a parametric NBD problem, inspired by the simultaneous acquisition of ptychography and fluorescent imaging (FI). Ptychography is an imaging method that favors larger probes, i.e. convolutional kernels, while FI relies on a small probe for high resolution. Also, the kernel can be solved during ptychographic reconstruction. With Ptycho-FI using the same larger kernel, we can perform NBD on the blurred fluorescent images to achieve high-resolution FI, and thus speed up the experiments. To this end, we design a deep latent space deformation network that is directly parameterized by the kernel. The network consists of three components: encoder, deformer, and decoder, where the deformer is specifically meant to rectify the latent space representations of blurred images to a standard latent space, regardless of the kernel. The deformation network is trained with a two-stage training scheme. We conduct extensive experiments to confirm that our parametric model can adapt to drastically different blurring kernels and perform robust deblurring.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Pynta-An Automated Workflow for Calculation of Surface and Gas-Surface Kinetics

Many important industrial processes rely on heterogeneous catalytic systems. However, given all possible catalysts and conditions of interest, it is impractical to optimize most systems experimentally. Automatically generated microkinetic models can be used to efficiently consider many catalysts and conditions. However, these microkinetic models require accurate estimation of many thermochemical and kinetic parameters. Manually calculating these parameters is tedious and error prone, involving many interconnected computations. Here, we present Pynta, a workflow software for automating the calculation of surface and gas–surface reactions. Pynta takes the reactants, products, and atom maps for the reactions of interest, generates sets of initial guesses for all species and saddle points, runs all optimizations, frequency, and IRC calculations, and computes the associated thermochemistry and rate coefficients. It is able to consider all unique adsorption configurations for both adsorbates and saddle points, allowing it to handle high index surfaces and bidentate species. Pynta implements a new saddle point guess generation method called harmonically forced saddle point searching (HFSP). HFSP defines harmonic potentials based on the optimized adsorbate geometries and which bonds are breaking and forming that allow initial placements to be optimized using the GFN1-xTB semiempirical method to create reliable saddle point guesses. This method is reaction class agnostic and fast, allowing Pynta to consider all possible adsorbate site placements efficiently. We demonstrate Pynta on 11 diverse reactions involving monodenate, bidentate, and gas-phase species, many distinct reaction classes, and both a low and a high index facet of Cu. Our results suggest that it is very important to consider reactions between adsorbates adsorbed in all unique configurations for interadsorbate group transfers and reactions on high index surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗