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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

The use of Doppler radar to help forecast the development of thunderstorms

The role of Doppler radars in forecasting the location and timing of the initiation of thunderstorms both over Kennedy Space Center and central Florida is analyzed. The data used in this analysis was collected with two Doppler radars with high temporal and spatial resolution throughout the troposphere. Previous studies of thunderstorm initiation in the vicinity of Kennedy Space Center, including synoptic and site-specific observations are outlined. As a result of the analysis of nine cases of thunderstorm initiation, it is concluded that an expert system could be developed that would take input data from the existing field mill network, instrumented tower network, lightning detection system, from sounding, and from Doppler-radar-based algorithms. Such a system would be able to determine a probability of thunderstorm development in the next 10, 20, and 30 minutes for the area of interest.

Eilts, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Diabatic heating rate estimates from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses

Vertically integrated diabatic heating rate estimates (H) calculated from 32 months of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts daily analyses (May 1985-December 1987) are determined as residuals of the thermodynamic equation in pressure coordinates. Values for global, hemispheric, zonal, and grid point H are given as they vary over the time period examined. The distribution of H is compared with previous results and with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements. The most significant negative correlations between H and OLR occur for (1) tropical and Northern-Hemisphere mid-latitude oceanic areas and (2) zonal and hemispheric mean values for periods less than 90 days. Largest positive correlations are seen in periods greater than 90 days for the Northern Hemispheric mean and continental areas of North Africa, North America, northern Asia, and Antarctica. The physical basis for these relationships is discussed. An interyear comparison between 1986 and 1987 reveals the ENSO signal.

Christy, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

Numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series are presented. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical invariants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), given a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Precipitable water and surface humidity over global oceans from special sensor microwave imager and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

Global fields of precipitable water W from the special sensor microwave imager were compared with those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. They agree over most ocean areas; both data sets capture the two annual cycles examined and the interannual anomalies during an ENSO episode. They show significant differences in the dry air masses over the eastern tropical-subtropical oceans, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, comparisons with radiosonde data indicate that overestimation by the ECMWF model accounts for a large part of the differences. As a check on the W differences, surface-level specific humidity Q derived from W, using a statistical relation, was compared with Q from the ECMWF model. The differences in Q were found to be consistent with the differences in W, indirectly validating the Q-W relation. In both W and Q, SSMI was able to discern clearly the equatorial extension of the tongues of dry air in the eastern tropical ocean, while both ECMWF and climatological fields have reduced spatial gradients and weaker intensity.

Liu, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

This paper presents numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical in variants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), give a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Forecasting the arrival of fast coronal mass ejecta at Earth by the detection of 2-20 keV neutral atoms

Studies have shown that Earth passages of fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) trigger geomagnetic storms. Early identification of fast earth-directed CME can help provide storm warnings, but detection of such by coronagraphs is extremely difficult. We suggest that energetic hydrogen atoms (EHA) between 2 and 10 keV produced during the transit phase of an Earth-directed CME by recombination between protons and electrons in the CME can travel ahead of the CME and act as harbingers of a magnetic storm. This forecasting scheme should work if enough EHA are produced, because while CMEs decelerate continuously after their ejection, the EHA fluxes produced in the initial phase of fast CMEs propagate at their initial high speeds. Model simulations support this proposed mechanism.

Hsieh, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Final results of an experiment in operational forecasting of sea breeze thunderstorms using a mesoscale numerical model

Sea breeze thunderstorms during quiescent synoptic conductions account for 40 percent of Florida rainfall, and are the dominant feature of April-October weather at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). An effort is presently made to assess the feasibility of a mesoscale numerical model in improving the point-specific thunderstorm forecasting accuracy at the KSC, in the 2-12 hour time frame. Attention is given to the Applied Regional Atmospheric Modeling System.

Lyons, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

Schlager, Mark S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

PC4CAST: A tool for DSN load forecasting and capacity planning

Effectively planning the use and evolution of the Deep Space Network (DSN) is a complex problem involving many parameters. The tool that models many of these complexities, yet requires simple structured inputs and provides concise easy-to-understand metrics to aid in the planning process is discussed. The tool, PC4CAST, is used for both load forecasting (predicting how well planned that DSN resources meet expected demand) and as a decision support tool in the capacity-planning process (determining the relative benefits of capacity expansion options). It is now in use in the TDA Planning Office, has been used in numerous studies, and is also being used by the JPL Multimission Operations System Office (MOSO) as an integral part of Resource Allocation Team activities. Experience using the tool has helped to identify additional requirements that will further improve the planning process, which can be met by future PC4CAST versions.

Loyola, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Microwave (SSM/I) Estimates of the Precipitation Rate to Improve Numerical Atmospheric Model Forecasts

Delay in the spin-up of precipitation early in numerical atmospheric forecasts is a deficiency correctable by diabatic initialization combined with diabatic forcing. For either to be effective requires some knowledge of the magnitude and vertical placement of the latent heating fields. Until recently the best source of cloud and rain water data was the remotely sensed vertical integrated precipitation rate or liquid water content. Vertical placement of the condensation remains unknown. Some information about the vertical distribution of the heating rates and precipitating liquid water and ice can be obtained from retrieval techniques that use a physical model of precipitating clouds to refine and improve the interpretation of the remotely sensed data. A description of this procedure and an examination of its 3-D liquid water products, along with improved modeling methods that enhance or speed-up storm development is discussed.

Raymond, William H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Role of Wind Tunnels and Computer Codes in the Certification and Qualification of Rotorcraft for Flight in Forecast Icing

The cost and time to certify or qualify a rotorcraft for flight in forecast icing has been a major impediment to the development of ice protection systems for helicopter rotors. Development and flight test programs for those aircraft that have achieved certification or qualification for flight in icing conditions have taken many years, and the costs have been very high. NASA, Sikorsky, and others have been conducting research into alternative means for providing information for the development of ice protection systems, and subsequent flight testing to substantiate the air-worthiness of a rotor ice protection system. Model rotor icing tests conducted in 1989 and 1993 have provided a data base for correlation of codes, and for the validation of wind tunnel icing test techniques. This paper summarizes this research, showing test and correlation trends as functions of cloud liquid water content, rotor lift, flight speed, and ambient temperature. Molds were made of several of the ice formations on the rotor blades. These molds were used to form simulated ice on the rotor blades, and the blades were then tested in a wind tunnel to determine flight performance characteristics. These simulated-ice rotor performance tests are discussed in the paper. The levels of correlation achieved and the role of these tools (codes and wind tunnel tests) in flight test planning, testing, and extension of flight data to the limits of the icing envelope are discussed. The potential application of simulated ice, the NASA LEWICE computer, the Sikorsky Generalized Rotor Performance aerodynamic computer code, and NASA Icing Research Tunnel rotor tests in a rotorcraft certification or qualification program are also discussed. The correlation of these computer codes with tunnel test data is presented, and a procedure or process to use these methods as part of a certification or qualification program is introduced.

Flemming, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The long-term forecast of station view periods

Using dynamical systems theory, a definite integral is obtained that gives the average view period of a ground station for spacecraft in circular orbits. Minor restrictions exist on the class of circular orbits to which this method can be applied. This method avoids the propagation of the orbit, which requires a lot of resources, and simplifies the algorithm used to compute the mean station view period. The integral is used for long-term station load forecast studies. It also provides a quantitative measure of the effectiveness of a ground station as a function of its latitude.

Lo, M. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Forecasting Earthquakes

In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge Earthquake and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, earthquake geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss earthquake forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1994

Analyses and forecasts with LAWS winds

Horizontal fluxes of atmospheric water vapor are studied for summer months during 1989 and 1992 over North and South America based on analyses from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, US National Meteorological Center, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The calculations are performed over 20 deg by 20 deg box-shaped midlatitude domains located to the east of the Rocky Mountains in North America, and to the east of the Andes Mountains in South America. The fluxes are determined from operational center gridded analyses of wind and moisture. Differences in the monthly mean moisture flux divergence determined from these analyses are as large as 7 cm/month precipitable water equivalent over South America, and 3 cm/month over North America. Gridded analyses at higher spatial and temporal resolution exhibit better agreement in the moisture budget study. However, significant discrepancies of the moisture flux divergence computed from different gridded analyses still exist. The conclusion is more pessimistic than Rasmusson's estimate based on station data. Further analysis reveals that the most significant sources of error result from model surface elevation fields, gaps in the data archive, and uncertainties in the wind and specific humidity analyses. Uncertainties in the wind analyses are the most important problem. The low-level jets, in particular, are substantially different in the different data archives. Part of the reason for this may be due to the way the different analysis models parameterized physical processes affecting low-level jets. The results support the inference that the noise/signal ratio of the moisture budget may be improved more rapidly by providing better wind observations and analyses than by providing better moisture data.

Wang, Muyin↗
NASA NTRS1993

Neural net forecasting for geomagnetic activity

We use neural nets to construct nonlinear models to forecast the AL index given solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data. We follow two approaches: (1) the state space reconstruction approach, which is a nonlinear generalization of autoregressive-moving average models (ARMA) and (2) the nonlinear filter approach, which reduces to a moving average model (MA) in the linear limit. The database used here is that of Bargatze et al. (1985).

Hernandez, J. V.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Impact of geostationary satellite water vapor channel data on weather analysis and forecasting

Preliminary results from NWP impact studies are indicating that upper-tropospheric wind information provided by tracking motions in sequences of geostationary satellite water vapor imagery can positively influence forecasts on regional scales, and possibly on global scales as well. The data are complimentary to cloud-tracked winds by providing data in cloud-free regions, as well as comparable in quality. First results from GOES-8 winds are encouraging, and further efforts and model impacts will be directed towards optimizing these data in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Assuming successful launches of GOES-J and GMS-5 satellites in 1995, high quality and resolution water vapor imagers will be available to provide nearly complete global upper-tropospheric wind coverage.

Velden, Christopher S.↗