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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Software Architecture to Support the Evolution of the ISRU RESOLVE Engineering Breadboard Unit 2 (EBU2)

The In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Regolith & Environmental Science and Oxygen & Lunar Volatiles Extraction (RESOLVE) software provides operation of the physical plant from a remote location with a high-level interface that can access and control the data from external software applications of other subsystems. This software allows autonomous control over the entire system with manual computer control of individual system/process components. It gives non-programmer operators the capability to easily modify the high-level autonomous sequencing while the software is in operation, as well as the ability to modify the low-level, file-based sequences prior to the system operation. Local automated control in a distributed system is also enabled where component control is maintained during the loss of network connectivity with the remote workstation. This innovation also minimizes network traffic. The software architecture commands and controls the latest generation of RESOLVE processes used to obtain, process, and quantify lunar regolith. The system is grouped into six sub-processes: Drill, Crush, Reactor, Lunar Water Resource Demonstration (LWRD), Regolith Volatiles Characterization (RVC) (see example), and Regolith Oxygen Extraction (ROE). Some processes are independent, some are dependent on other processes, and some are independent but run concurrently with other processes. The first goal is to analyze the volatiles emanating from lunar regolith, such as water, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, ammonia, hydrogen, and others. This is done by heating the soil and analyzing and capturing the volatilized product. The second goal is to produce water by reducing the soil at high temperatures with hydrogen. This is done by raising the reactor temperature in the range of 800 to 900 C, causing the reaction to progress by adding hydrogen, and then capturing the water product in a desiccant bed. The software needs to run the entire unit and all sub-processes; however, throughout testing, many variables and parameters need to be changed as more is learned about the system operation. The Master Events Controller (MEC) is run on a standard laptop PC using Windows XP. This PC runs in parallel to another laptop that monitors the GC, and a third PC that monitors the drilling/ crushing operation. These three PCs interface to the process through a CompactRIO, OPC Servers, and modems.

Moss, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2025

The three-point energy correlator in the coplanar limit

Energy correlators are a type of observables that measure how energy is distributed across multiple detectors as a function of the angles between pairs of detectors. In this paper, we study the three-point energy correlator (EEEC) at lepton colliders in the three-particle near-to-plane (coplanar) limit. The leading-power contribution in this limit is governed by the three-jet (trijet) configuration. We introduce a new approach by projecting the EEEC onto the volume of the parallelepiped formed by the unit vectors aligned with three detected final-state particles. Analogous to the back-to-back limit of the two-point energy correlator probing the dijet configuration, the small-volume limit of the EEEC probes the trijet configuration. We derive a transverse momentum dependent (TMD) based factorization theorem that captures the soft and collinear logarithms in the coplanar limit, which enables us to achieve the next-to-next-to-next-to-leading logarithm (N 3 LL) resummation. To our knowledge, this is the first N 3 LL result for a trijet event shape. Additionally, we demonstrate that a similar factorization theorem can be applied to the fully differential EEEC in the three-particle coplanar limit, which provides a clean environment for studying different coplanar trijet shapes.

Effective Field Theories of QCD↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Multi-Step-Ahead Street-Scale Nuisance Flooding using a seq2seq LSTM Surrogate Model for Real-Time Application in a Coastal-Urban City

In coastal-urban cities facing an elevated risk of nuisance flooding (by rain and tide) due to increased heavy rainfall, sea level rise, urbanization, and aging drainage systems, real-time flood forecasting at the street-scale can provide useful information to transportation decision-makers. Physics-Based Models (PBMs) that offer high accuracy come with high computational runtimes and costs that limit their application for real-time flood forecasting. To address this challenge, Machine Learning (ML) surrogate models trained from PBMs have been proposed to provide street-scale flood forecasts. Previous related studies have focused on using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures to model hourly flood depth on streets. While LSTM models can capture input sequences effectively, they fall short in accurately preserving output sequences, limiting their suitability for multi-step-ahead forecasts. The seq2seq LSTM architecture offers a key advantage here by capturing the full sequence of input–output, making it potentially more suitable for multi-step-ahead flood forecasts compared to traditional LSTM models. However, seq2seq LSTM has not been tested for street-scale flood forecasting, particularly for rapidly fluctuating nuisance flooding events which require special attention to its temporal sequences. Hence, in this study, we applied the seq2seq LSTM model to explore multi-step-ahead street-scale nuisance flooding and compared its results to the traditional LSTM model as a benchmark model. LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models were applied to 22 flood-prone streets in Norfolk, Virginia, as a case study with a 4-hr (short-term) and 8-hr (long-term) lead time. The models were trained with environmental (rainfall and tide) and topographic (elevation, Topographic Wetness Index, and Depth-To-Water) features along with PBM-derived water depths for different storm events. The results demonstrated satisfactory performance of both LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models throughout the forecast period compared to the PBM. However, the seq2seq LSTM showed lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE)/ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and higher Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)/ correlation than the LSTM across most lead times, particularly for long-term forecasting due to its supremacy in handling both input–output sequences together, which is missing in the traditional LSTM. For example, in the long-term, the average RMSE ranges were 0.0268–0.0373 m for LSTM and 0.0226–0.0319 m for seq2seq LSTM, while in the short-term, they were 0.0263–0.0293 m and 0.0261–0.0283 m, respectively. Additionally, while both models exhibited similar performance in distinguishing flooded and non-flooded streets for flood depth ≥ 0.1 m, the seq2seq LSTM model demonstrated superior performance for higher flood depths (such as ≥ 0.2 m and ≥ 0.3 m). Once trained, inference took only 0.09 to 0.11 s (short-term) and 0.30 to 0.35 s (long-term) per storm event for the 22 streets, making the application highly suitable for real-time decision-making during nuisance flood events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Single Entity Electrochemistry in Nanopore Electrode Arrays: Ion Transport Meets Electron Transfer in Confined Geometries

Electrochemical measurements conducted in confined volumes provide a powerful and direct means to address scientific questions at the nexus of nanoscience, biotechnology, and chemical analysis. How are electron transfer and ion transport coupled in confined volumes and how does understanding them require moving beyond macroscopic theories? Also, how do these coupled processes impact electrochemical detection and processing? We address these questions by studying a special type of confined-volume architecture, the nanopore electrode array, or NEA, which is designed to be commensurate in size with physical scaling lengths, such as the Debye length, a concordance that offers performance characteristics not available in larger scale structures. The experiments described here depend critically on carefully constructed nanoscale architectures that can usefully control molecular transport and electrochemical reactivity. We begin by considering the experimental constraints that guide the design and fabrication of zero-dimensional nanopore arrays with multiple embedded electrodes. These zero-dimensional structures are nearly ideal for exploring how permselectivity and unscreened ion migration can be combined to amplify signals and improve selectivity by enabling highly efficient redox cycling. Our studies also highlight the benefits of arrays, in that molecules escaping from a single nanopore are efficiently captured by neighboring pores and returned to the population of active redox species being measured, benefits that arise from coupling ion accumulation and migration. These tools for manipulating redox species are well-positioned to explore single molecule and single particle electron transfer events through spectroelectrochemistry, studies which are enabled by the electrochemical zero-mode waveguide (ZMW), a special hybrid nanophotonic/nanoelectronic architecture in which the lower ring electrode of an NEA nanopore functions both as a working electrode to initiate electron transfer reactions and as the optical cladding layer of a ZMW. Furthermore, while the work described here is largely exploratory and fundamental, we believe that the development of NEAs will enable important applications that emerge directly from the unique coupled transport and electron-transfer capabilities of NEAs, including in situ molecular separation and detection with external stimuli, redox-based electrochemical rectification in individually encapsulated nanopores, and coupled sorters and analyzers for nanoparticles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Possible Mechanisms for Turbofan Engine Ice Crystal Icing at High Altitude

A thermodynamic model is presented to describe possible mechanisms of ice formation on unheated surfaces inside a turbofan engine compression system from fully glaciated ice crystal clouds often formed at high altitude near deep convective weather systems. It is shown from the analysis that generally there could be two distinct types of ice formation: (1) when the "surface freezing fraction" is in the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the freezing of water melt from fully or partially melted ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accretion with strong adhesion to the surface, and (2) when the "surface melting fraction" is the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the further melting of ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accumulation of un-melted ice crystals with relatively weak bonding to the surface. The model captures important qualitative trends of the fundamental ice-crystal icing phenomenon reported earlier1,2 from the research collaboration work by NASA and the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada. Further, preliminary analysis of test data from the 2013 full scale turbofan engine ice crystal icing test3 conducted in the NASA Glenn Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) has also suggested that (1) both types of ice formation occurred during the test, and (2) the model has captured some important qualitative trend of turning on (or off) the ice crystal ice formation process in the tested engine low pressure compressor (LPC) targeted area under different icing conditions that ultimately would lead to (or suppress) an engine core roll back (RB) event.

Crystal Icing↗
NASA NTRS2016

Possible Mechanisms for Turbofan Engine Ice Crystal Icing at High Altitude

A thermodynamic model is presented to describe possible mechanisms of ice formation on unheated surfaces inside a turbofan engine compression system from fully glaciated ice crystal clouds often formed at high altitude near deep convective weather systems. It is shown from the analysis that generally there could be two distinct types of ice formation: (1) when the "surface freezing fraction" is in the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the freezing of water melt from fully or partially melted ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accretion with strong adhesion to the surface, and (2) when the "surface melting fraction" is the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the further melting of ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accumulation of un-melted ice crystals with relatively weak bonding to the surface. The model captures important qualitative trends of the fundamental ice-crystal icing phenomenon reported earlier (Refs. 1 and 2) from the research collaboration work by NASA and the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada. Further, preliminary analysis of test data from the 2013 full scale turbofan engine ice crystal icing test (Ref. 3) conducted in the NASA Glenn Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) has also suggested that (1) both types of ice formation occurred during the test, and (2) the model has captured some important qualitative trend of turning on (or off) the ice crystal ice formation process in the tested engine low pressure compressor (LPC) targeted area under different icing conditions that ultimately would lead to (or suppress) an engine core roll back (RB) event.

Crystal Icing↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Efficient Three-Dimensional CFD-Based Numerical Wave Tank for a Wave Energy Converter in Extreme Irregular Waves: Preprint

A numerical wave tank approach for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of an extreme irregular seastate is presented. The technique couples a potential flow solution with a CFD solver for more efficient numerical predictions. This method has recently become attractive both for the research community and the industry working with offshore structures. The model is used to determine the response of a submerged pressure differential wave energy converter (WEC) in a fully nonlinear irregular wave condition using the high fidelity CFD code, STAR-CCM+. Potential flow based numerical models are commonly used to predict motions and performance of wave energy converters. Wave kinematics can deviate from potential flow predictions for extreme wave conditions; the excitation loads on an absorber can also be increasingly influenced by viscous effects, not captured in engineering level models. In these extreme conditions, a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD model can better predict motions and loads for a WEC. Long time series with varying random seed numbers can be used to identify singular extreme wave events from a stochastic irregular sea state. This approach simulates a more realistic wave series for a given sea state than a regular wave or a focused wave. However, it is computationally infeasible to run these long time series for three-dimensional (3D) CFD simulations. In this work, two-dimensional (2D) CFD simulations with a long domain allow the full development of an extreme nonlinear wave condition. The results are used to identify extreme events from a 50-year storm condition for the PacWave site off the coast of Oregon. A relatively short time window including this extreme event is then mapped to a 3D simulation using a user defined wave methodology. Convergence studies for domain length, wave forcing lengths, and time before the extreme event were conducted.

cfd↗
DOE OSTI2023

Counter Unmanned Aircraft System Metrics Tool

SAND2023-05387O The Counter Unmanned Aircraft System (CUAS) Metrics Tool consists of three applications: • The Data Collection Tool is designed to be used during testing and captures details that can be imported into the Figure Creator application. • The Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Log Converter converts different UAS logs into a standardized hierarchical data format with a timeline of geospatial data. • The Figure Creator develops relevant images for the test event. The application includes logic to ingest and correlate data from the Data Collection Tool and the UAS Log Converter to produce the chosen figures. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Mayle, Ashley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Carbon Properties in Coastal Waters with a New Observing System Testbed

Large rainfall events over land can lead to a substantial flux of carbon and nutrients to estuaries and the coastal ocean. In the mid-Atlantic on the east coast of North America (35° - 42° N), these events often happen due to tropical storm activity as well as less predictable anomalously large midlatitude storms or abrupt spring snow melt runoff. Storms can directly impact the coastal carbon cycle via export of carbon from land to sea, while also stimulating phytoplankton production due to the influx of nutrients to the coastal ocean. To assess the impact of high precipitation and river flow events on the coastal carbon cycle, we have integrated multiple observing platforms in an analytical framework to dynamically observe carbon-related properties. The new observing system testbed (NOS-T) allows for an estimate of phytoplankton and organic carbon stocks in the surface ocean, with a goal of providing near real time analytical capability. A case study of high river discharge in the mid-Atlantic in the summer and fall of 2018 and 2021 were used to examine how riverine carbon manifests along the land-estuary-ocean continuum particularly in Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Bay was chosen as the study site because of long term monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program and a robust and well-developed regional biogeochemical modeling system, the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS), that is publicly available. There is also new capability in Chesapeake Bay to combine hyperspectral radiometric data from the Aerosol Robotic Network site that is online in 2022 with in-water observations of optical properties. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement IMERG data set was used to establish triggering criteria for storm carbon flux observation. USGS and in-water carbon data were used to establish statistical models to estimate the mass flux of organic carbon into Chesapeake Bay using measured river discharge. The year 2018 was examined as there was record rainfall and near record river flow in the late summer. The CBEFS modeling was compared with in-water estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to assess the model’s ability to capture storm fluxes of carbon to the ecosystem. Multiple satellite platforms were also used to assess how remote sensing using passive Earth orbiting sensors can be used to observe carbon in this complex coastal region. A set of recommendations have been established to improve sensing capability to measure aquatic carbon during storm events. A unique challenge in these dynamic inland waters is how rapidly carbon fluxes can evolve in space and time, with many sources contributing to the water leaving reflectance that satellites can observe. To improve our ability to quantify carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time, a suite of satellite sensors and high-resolution modeling capability is needed, all supplemented by in situ monitoring. Future inclusion of in-water observations that would be deployed when the system reaches triggering criteria, as well as taskable orbital instruments, will improve estimates of ocean carbon properties and provide the ability to calculate major carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time following episodic storm events.

land-ocean continuum↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated detector simulation and reconstruction parametrization using machine learning

Rapidly applying the effects of detector response to physics objects (e.g. electrons, muons, showers of particles) is essential in high energy physics. Presently available tools for the transformation from truth-level physics objects to reconstructed detector-level physics objects involve manually defining resolution functions. These resolution functions are typically derived in bins of variables that are correlated with the resolution (e.g. pseudorapidity and transverse momentum). This process is time consuming, requires manual updates when detector conditions change, and can miss important correlations. Machine learning offers a way to automate the process of building these truth-to-reconstructed object transformations and can capture complex correlation for any given set of input variables. Such machine learning algorithms, with sufficient optimization, could have a wide range of applications: improving phenomenological studies by using a better detector representation, allowing for more efficient production of Geant4 simulation by only simulating events within an interesting part of phase space, and studies on future experimental sensitivity to new physics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilient U.S. Land Ports of Entry

The continued operation of Land Ports of Entry (LPOE), managed by the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and General Services Administration% is vital to the U.S. economy and security. Border faculties are included in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Government Facilities Sector2, one of the 16 critical infrastructures "whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof.'" Specifically, disruptions to the flow of border crossing traffic, in the form of closures or increased border crossing wait times, impact the economy and security of all countries involved. This paper describes a process for analyzing and improving the resilience of U.S. Land Ports of Entry. For LPOE, the team believes that energy resilience is the primary objective due to the complete reliance on the e-manifest system and the increasing use of Multi-Energy Portals (MEPs). Emanifests are part of CPB's Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). They document several key pieces of information about cargo vehicles wishing to cross the border into the United States and are submitted before arriving at the port. Vehicles can be flagged for more invasive inspection based on the content of the e-manifest. MEPs are a non-intrusive inspection (NII) technology used to scan the contents of the cargo. Together MEPs and ACE serve an important role in aiding CBP with their mission to protect "the public from dangerous people and materials", and "enabling legitimate trade and travel.'" To analyze resilience of a port, the team would need to understand the port's current energy usage, which systems depend on energy and what backup systems exist, and any emergency operation plans that dictate how systems are operated in the event of a power outage. The team would also need to determine the design basis threats (DBTs) for the LPOE which could include natural disasters, manmade events, and accidents. The magnitudes of the DBTs are calculated and are then translated to expected impacts on the infrastructure and systems at the port. With this information gathered, existing LPOE models developed here at Sandia National Laboratories could be extended to support decisions about resilience. Current models are implemented in FlexSim, a 3rd party discrete event simulator. FlexSim provides 3-D visuals of physical layout that can reveal valuable insights, allows input to be variable (e.g. time it takes to interact with the CBP officer at primary inspection can vary) so that a whole range of possibilities can be captured in the results, and can be used to collect user-defined output metrics. Current LPOE models focus on cargo vehicle traffic, and process changes caused by the installation of new drive-through MEPs. Extending them to address resilience questions would require the addition of key pieces of information learned during the resilience analysis including critical systems, failure rates, and process changes for when failures occur. The primary output metric for current models is border crossing wait time. Additional metrics would also be added to the model to gain a more complete understanding of impacts related to resilience, for example, MEP scan rate. Once complete, the model could be used to analyze the effectiveness of mitigation strategies representing some future state.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update: Jamaica After Hurricane Melissa (V1)

During a natural disaster such as Hurricane Melissa, understanding where people are located is critical for situational awareness, operational planning and humanitarian support and consequence assessment. Traditional population datasets focus on mapping populations based on residential, or "business-as-usual" scenarios. However, natural disasters can create disruptions in daily routines of population in addition to the magnitude of the population displacement, depending on the type, duration, context, and location of the event. The Geospatial Science and Human Security Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) produced this latest LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update for Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa, a category 5 hurricane that made landfall on Jamaica on October 28 2025. This Rapid Population Update captures the immediate population displacement following the hurricane using a combination of open-source building damage assessment data from Microsoft, flood exposure data from the Global Flood Monitoring service, reported population displacement information, and humanitarian shelter locations from the Jamaican Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management and the underlying LandScan Mosaic Jamaica as a base population.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Charge and energy spectra of cosmic rays with Z equal to or greater than 30.

A 2 g/sq cm stack (22 sq m in area) containing 41 plastic sheets, one G-5 emulsion, and one high-speed Cerenkov film detector was launched by balloon from Minneapolis on Sept. 4, 1970. The stack received an effective exposure of 48 hr at 2.8 mbar and a cutoff rigidity of about 1.8 GV. The abundance ratios relative to Fe are reported for various charges and charge groups from Z = 29 to 105 on the basis of 70 presently measured events as well as previously obtained results. Between Fe and the Pt peak, the cosmic ray abundances appear to be similar to solar system abundances; the heavier nuclei are strongly overabundant and appear to have originated about 10 m.y. ago in a rapid neutron capture process.

Kobetich, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Collapsing white dwarfs

The results of the hydrodynamic collapse of an accreting C + O white dwarf are presented. Collapse is induced by electron captures in the iron core behind a conductive deflagration front. The shock wave produced by the hydrodynamic bounce of the iron core stalls at about 115 km, and thus a neutron star formed in such a model would be formed as an optically quiet event.

Baron, E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Individual Data Sparsity in Smart Thermostat Big Data: Impacts on Modeling Thermostat Use Behavior Dynamics

This study explores the impacts of the sparsity of individual thermostat interaction data on modeling thermostat use behavior dynamics using a dataset of over 100,000 smart thermostats. In developing a data-driven model of Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), we investigate the challenges and trade-offs in clustering occupant data to enhance predictive accuracy. Our findings reveal that a single, aggregated model fails to capture the diversity of occupant behaviors, resulting in extremely poor prediction performance. Conversely, excessive clustering exacerbates data sparsity, undermining model reliability. By identifying an optimal clustering strategy, we achieve a balance that significantly improves the prediction of manual setpoint changes during demand response (DR) events, enhancing energy management and occupant comfort

Fannon, David↗
NASA NTRS2009

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods to capture proteomic and metabolomic signatures from cerebrospinal fluid and serum of healthy individuals

Discovery of reliable signatures for the empirical diagnosis of neurological diseases—both infectious and non-infectious—remains unrealized. One of the primary challenges encountered in such studies is the lack of a comprehensive database representative of a signature background that exists in healthy individuals, and against which an aberrant event can be assessed. For neurological insults and injuries, it is important to understand the normal profile in the neuronal (cerebrospinal fluid) and systemic fluids (e.g., blood). Here, we present the first comparative multi-omic human database of signatures derived from a population of 30 individuals (15 males, 15 females, 23–74 years) of serum and cerebrospinal fluid. In addition to empirical signatures, we also assigned common pathways between serum and CSF. Together, our findings provide a cohort against which aberrant signature profiles in individuals with neurological injuries/disease can be assessed—providing a pathway for comprehensive diagnostics and therapeutics discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗