Leveraging Uncertainty from Deep Learning for Trustworthy Material Discovery Workflows
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Earthquake monitoring by seismic networks typically involves a workflow consisting of phase detection/picking, association, and location tasks. In recent years, the accuracy of these individual stages has been improved through the use of machine learning techniques. Here, in this study, we introduce a new end-to-end approach that improves overall earthquake detection accuracy by jointly optimizing each stage of the detection pipeline. We propose a neural network architecture for the task of multi-station processing of seismic waveforms recorded over a seismic network. This end-to-end architecture consists of three sub-networks: a backbone network that extracts features from raw waveforms, a phase picking sub-network that picks P- and S-wave arrivals based on these features, and an event detection sub-network that aggregates the features from multiple stations to associate and detect earthquakes across a seismic network. We use these sub-networks together with a shift-and-stack module based on back-projection that introduces kinematic constraints on arrival times, allowing the neural network model to generalize to different velocity models and to variable station geometry in seismic networks. We evaluate our proposed method on the STanford EArthquake Dataset (STEAD) and on the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake sequence. The results demonstrate that our end-to-end approach can effectively pick P- and S-wave arrivals and achieve earthquake detection accuracy rivaling that of other state-of-the-art approaches. Because our approach preserves information across tasks in the detection pipeline, it has the potential to outperform approaches that do not.
Abstract Identification of a heterogeneous conductivity field and reconstruction of a contaminant release history are key aspects of subsurface remediation. These two goals are achieved by combining model predictions with sparse and noisy hydraulic head and concentration measurements. Solution of this inverse problem is notoriously difficult due to, in part, high dimensionality of the parameter space and high computational cost of repeated forward solves. We use a convolutional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) to parameterize a heterogeneous non‐Gaussian conductivity field via a low‐dimensional latent representation. A three‐dimensional dense convolutional encoder‐decoder (DenseED) network serves as a forward surrogate of the flow and transport model. The CAAE‐DenseED surrogate is fed into the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) algorithm to sample from the Bayesian posterior distribution of the unknown parameters, forming a CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion framework. The resulting CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion strategy is used to identify a three‐dimensional contaminant source and conductivity field. A comparison of the inversion results from CAAE‐ESMDA with physical flow and transport simulator and from CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA shows that the latter yields accurate reconstruction results at the fraction of the computational cost of the former.
Abstract Infrasound is generated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources. Infrasonic waves travel through the dynamic atmosphere, which can change on the order of minutes to hours. Infrasound propagation largely depends on the wind and temperature structure of the atmosphere. Numerical weather prediction models are available to provide atmospheric specifications, but uncertainties in these models exist and they are computationally expensive to run. Machine learning has proven useful in predicting tropospheric weather using Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) networks. An LSTM network is utilized to make atmospheric specification predictions up to ∼30 km for three different training and testing scenarios: (a) the model is trained and tested using only radiosonde data from the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, (b) the model is trained on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US, excluding the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, which was reserved for testing, and (c) the model is trained and tested on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US. Long Short‐Term Memory predictions are compared to a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis model and show cases where the LSTM outperforms, performs equally as well, or underperforms in comparison to the state‐of‐the‐art. Regional and temporal trends in model performance across the US are also discussed. Results suggest that the LSTM model is a viable tool for predicting atmospheric specifications for infrasound propagation modeling.
Machine learning models using seismic emissions as input can predict instantaneous fault characteristics such as displacement and friction in laboratory experiments, and slow slip in Earth. Here, we address whether the seismic/acoustic emission (AE) from laboratory experiments contains information about future frictional behavior. The approach uses a convolutional encoder-decoder containing a transformer model in the latent space, similar to models used for natural language processing. We test the model limits using progressively larger AE input time windows and progressively larger output friction time windows. The results demonstrate that very near-term friction predictions are indeed contained in the AE signal, and predictions are progressively worse farther into the future. The future predictions by the model of impending failure in the near-term are remarkably robust. This first effort predicting future fault frictional behavior with machine learning will aid in guiding efforts for applications in Earth.
The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.
Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are becoming crucial for effective water management in an increasingly variable climate. However, streamflow forecast remains challenging over extended lead times, uncertainty in meteorological inputs, and increased frequency and variability in extreme weather and climate events. We implemented a Future Time Series Transformer (FutureTST) model for streamflow forecasting that separately integrates past meteorological and streamflow data while incorporating future weather conditions. FutureTST achieves a mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.82 to 0.67 for 1- to 30-day streamflow forecasts. Incorporating upstream streamflow information improved forecast accuracy by up to 10%. During real-time forecast, FutureTST maintains higher forecast skills of 9.03 for 1-day and 5.74 for 14-day forecasts. In contrast, calibrated process-based hydrological model forecasts become unreliable beyond a 4-day lead time. Our findings demonstrate the potential of FutureTST as a reliable streamflow forecasting tool that offers a valuable addition to operational flood monitoring systems and climate-resilient decision-making.
Abstract Accurate descriptions of protein-protein interactions are essential for understanding biological systems. Remarkably accurate atomic structures have been recently computed for individual proteins by AlphaFold2 (AF2). Here, we demonstrate that the same neural network models from AF2 developed for single protein sequences can be adapted to predict the structures of multimeric protein complexes without retraining. In contrast to common approaches, our method, AF2Complex, does not require paired multiple sequence alignments. It achieves higher accuracy than some complex protein-protein docking strategies and provides a significant improvement over AF-Multimer, a development of AlphaFold for multimeric proteins. Moreover, we introduce metrics for predicting direct protein-protein interactions between arbitrary protein pairs and validate AF2Complex on some challenging benchmark sets and the E. coli proteome. Lastly, using the cytochrome c biogenesis system I as an example, we present high-confidence models of three sought-after assemblies formed by eight members of this system.
Abstract Coherent imaging techniques provide an unparalleled multi-scale view of materials across scientific and technological fields, from structural materials to quantum devices, from integrated circuits to biological cells. Driven by the construction of brighter sources and high-rate detectors, coherent imaging methods like ptychography are poised to revolutionize nanoscale materials characterization. However, these advancements are accompanied by significant increase in data and compute needs, which precludes real-time imaging, feedback and decision-making capabilities with conventional approaches. Here, we demonstrate a workflow that leverages artificial intelligence at the edge and high-performance computing to enable real-time inversion on X-ray ptychography data streamed directly from a detector at up to 2 kHz. The proposed AI-enabled workflow eliminates the oversampling constraints, allowing low-dose imaging using orders of magnitude less data than required by traditional methods.
Identifying transition states—saddle points on the potential energy surface connecting reactant and product minima—is central to predicting kinetic barriers and understanding chemical reaction mechanisms. In this work, we train a fully differentiable equivariant neural network potential, NewtonNet, on thousands of organic reactions and derive the analytical Hessians. By reducing the computational cost by several orders of magnitude relative to the density functional theory (DFT) ab initio source, we can afford to use the learned Hessians at every step for the saddle point optimizations. We show that the full machine learned (ML) Hessian robustly finds the transition states of 240 unseen organic reactions, even when the quality of the initial guess structures are degraded, while reducing the number of optimization steps to convergence by 2–3× compared to the quasi-Newton DFT and ML methods. All data generation, NewtonNet model, and ML transition state finding methods are available in an automated workflow.
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Abstract We apply variational autoencoders (VAE) to X-ray diffraction (XRD) data analysis on both simulated and experimental thin-film data. We show that crystal structure representations learned by a VAE reveal latent information, such as the structural similarity of textured diffraction patterns. While other artificial intelligence (AI) agents are effective at classifying XRD data into known phases, a similarly conditioned VAE is uniquely effective at knowing what it doesn’t know: it can rapidly identify data outside the distribution it was trained on, such as novel phases and mixtures. These capabilities demonstrate that a VAE is a valuable AI agent for aiding materials discovery and understanding XRD measurements both ‘on-the-fly’ and during post hoc analysis.
Abstract High-throughput scanning electron microscopy (SEM) coupled with classification using neural networks is an ideal method to determine the morphological handedness of large populations of chiral nanoparticles. Automated labeling removes the time-consuming manual labeling of training data, but introduces label error, and subsequently classification error in the trained neural network. Here, we evaluate methods to minimize classification error when training from automated labels of SEM datasets of chiral Tellurium nanoparticles. Using the mirror relationship between images of opposite handed particles, we artificially create populations of varying label error. We analyze the impact of label error rate and training method on the classification error of neural networks on an ideal dataset and on a practical dataset. Of the three training methods considered, we find that a pretraining approach yields the most accurate results across label error rates on ideal datasets, where size and other morphological variables are held constant, but that a co-teaching approach performs the best in practical application.
The semi-empirical pseudopotential method (SEPM) has been widely applied to provide computational insights into the electronic structure, photophysics, and charge carrier dynamics of nanoscale materials. We present “DeepPseudopot”, a machine-learned atomistic pseudopotential model that extends the SEPM framework by combining a flexible neural network representation of the local pseudopotential with parameterized non-local and spin-orbit coupling terms. Trained on bulk quasiparticle band structures and deformation potentials from GW calculations, the model captures many-body and relativistic effects with very high accuracy across diverse semiconducting materials, as illustrated for silicon and group III-V semiconductors. DeepPseudopot’s accuracy, efficiency, and transferability make it well-suited for data-driven in silico design and discovery of novel optoelectronic nanomaterials.
Understanding the anharmonic phonon properties of crystal compounds—such as phonon lifetimes and thermal conductivities—is essential for investigating and optimizing their thermal transport behaviors. These properties also impact optical, electronic, and magnetic characteristics through interactions between phonons and other quasiparticles and fields. In this study, we develop an automated first-principles workflow to calculate anharmonic phonon properties and build a comprehensive database encompassing more than 6500 inorganic compounds. Utilizing this dataset, we train a graph neural network model to predict thermal conductivity values and spectra from structural parameters, demonstrating a scaling law in which prediction accuracy improves with increasing training data size. High-throughput screening with the model enables the identification of materials exhibiting extreme thermal conductivities—both high and low. The resulting database offers valuable insights into the anharmonic behavior of phonons, thereby accelerating the design and development of advanced functional materials.