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At least 847 records · Page 47

A Systematic Exploration of Kilonova Candidates from Neutron Star Mergers during the Third Gravitational-wave Observing Run

We present a comprehensive analysis of 653 optical candidate counterparts reported during the third gravitational-wave (GW) observing run. Our sample concentrates on candidates from the 15 events (published in GWTC-2, GWTC-3, or not retracted on GraceDB) that had a >1% chance of including a neutron star in order to assess their viability as true kilonovae. In particular, we leverage tools available in real time, including pre-merger detections and cross-matching with catalogs (i.e., point-source, variable-star, quasar and host-galaxy redshift data sets), to eliminate 65% of candidates in our sample. We further employ spectroscopic classifications, late-time detections, and light-curve behavior analyses and conclude that 66 candidates remain viable kilonovae. These candidates lack sufficient information to determine their classifications, and the majority would require luminosities greater than that of AT 2017gfo. Pre-merger detections in public photometric survey data and comparison of cataloged host-galaxy redshifts with the GW event distances are critical to incorporate into vetting procedures, as these tools eliminated >20% and >30% of candidates, respectively. We expect that such tools that leverage archival information will significantly reduce the strain on spectroscopic and photometric follow-up resources in future observing runs. Finally, we discuss the critical role prompt updates from GW astronomers to the EM community play in reducing the number of candidates requiring vetting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole in the Center of the Milky Way

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the Galactic center source associated with a supermassive black hole. These observations were conducted in 2017 using a global interferometric array of eight telescopes operating at a wavelength of λ = 1.3 mm. The EHT data resolve a compact emission region with intrahour variability. A variety of imaging and modeling analyses all support an image that is dominated by a bright, thick ring with a diameter of 51.8 ± 2.3 μas (68% credible interval). The ring has modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry and a comparatively dim interior. Using a large suite of numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the EHT images of Sgr A* are consistent with the expected appearance of a Kerr black hole with mass ∼4 × 10$^{6}$ M $_{⊙}$, which is inferred to exist at this location based on previous infrared observations of individual stellar orbits, as well as maser proper-motion studies. Our model comparisons disfavor scenarios where the black hole is viewed at high inclination (i > 50°), as well as nonspinning black holes and those with retrograde accretion disks. Our results provide direct evidence for the presence of a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, and for the first time we connect the predictions from dynamical measurements of stellar orbits on scales of 10$^{3}$–10$^{5}$ gravitational radii to event-horizon-scale images and variability. Furthermore, a comparison with the EHT results for the supermassive black hole M87* shows consistency with the predictions of general relativity spanning over three orders of magnitude in central mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Canopy spectral reflectance along the NGEE-Arctic tram transect, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2015-2017

Full-spectrum (350-2500 nm) canopy spectral reflectance measured in July 2015, 2016 and 2017 along the NGEE-Arctic tram located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Barrow, Alaska. Measurements were made using a SVC HR1024i spectroradiometer mounted on a manually operated instrument cart. Spectra were collected at 137 stop points at 0.5 m intervals along the tram transect, with each measurement calibrated to variable illumination conditions using a Spectralon white plate. Data were collected in July, 2015-2016, and in June, July and September in 2017. Processed spectral data are presented in .csv and .xlsx files for each year and the complete SVC instrument output (.sig) are also included in .zip files. The data package includes some photographs showing the tram transect and spectroradiometer setup and a written protocol with details of equipment used and methods.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pilot Study for Determining HVAC Fault Prevalence from Fault Monitoring Data

HVAC faults in U.S. commercial buildings are estimated to waste 0.7 quads of energy annually and many companies have deployed software at scale for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD). Yet the lack of comprehensive published data on fault prevalence makes it difficult for researchers, software developers, and building operators to target the most important types of faults and accelerate the widespread deployment of this technology. A multi-lab effort is underway to quantify the prevalence of commercial building HVAC faults. This paper describes initial analysis conducted on over 2-years of FDD data from 12 campus buildings to inform the methodology and data collection strategy of the full study. The analysis found a large variability in fault prevalence across different buildings, pieces of equipment, and fault types, many duplicate fault alarms, and challenges in validating faults with secondary data sources such as manually entered work order data. This paper also discusses the requirements for a successful full study, which necessitates the acquisition of a large, diverse dataset, from buildings that vary in end-use, climate region, and installed FDD software platform, as well as robust validation data easily linked to the FDD data. It is especially important to perform this analysis on data from multiple FDD providers and building owners to ensure that the results are agnostic to the software methodology used and building-specific settings. Future work will present the results of the full study, which will contain data from several different partner organizations, spanning a large proportion of U.S. climate zones.

Newman, Sarah F.↗

Performance Debugging and Tuning of Flash-X with Data Analysis Tools

State-of-the-art multiphysics simulations running on large scale leadership computing platforms have many variables contributing to their performance and scaling behavior. We recently encountered an interesting performance anomaly in Flash-X, a multiphysics multicomponent simulation software, when characterizing its performance behavior on several large-scale HPC platforms. The anomaly was tracked down to the interaction between the use of dynamic allocation of scratch data and data locality in the cache hierarchy. In this paper we present the details of unexpected performance variability of Flash-X, its extensive analysis using the performance measurement tool TAU to collect the data and Python data analysis libraries to explore the data, and our insights from this experience. In this process, we discovered and removed or mitigated two additional performance limiting bottlenecks for performance tuning.

Huck, Kevin↗

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗

Full event particle-level unfolding with variable-length latent variational diffusion

The measurements performed by particle physics experiments must account for the imperfect response of the detectors used to observe the interactions. One approach, unfolding, statistically adjusts the experimental data for detector effects. Recently, generative machine learning models have shown promise for performing unbinned unfolding in a high number of dimensions. However, all current generative approaches are limited to unfolding a fixed set of observables, making them unable to perform full-event unfolding in the variable dimensional environment of collider data. A novel modification to the variational latent diffusion model (VLD) approach to generative unfolding is presented, which allows for unfolding of high- and variable-dimensional feature spaces. The performance of this method is evaluated in the context of semi-leptonic t\bar{t} t t ‾ production at the Large Hadron Collider.

Shmakov, Alexander↗

Detailed study of quark-hadron duality in spin structure functions of the proton and neutron

Background: The response of hadrons, the bound states of the strong force (QCD), to external probes can be described in two different, complementary frameworks: as direct interactions with their fundamental constituents, quarks and gluons, or alternatively as elastic or inelastic coherent scattering that leaves the hadrons in their ground state or in one of their excited (resonance) states. The former picture emerges most clearly in hard processes with high momentum transfer, where the hadron response can be described by the perturbative expansion of QCD, while at lower energy and momentum transfers, the resonant excitations of the hadrons dominate the cross section. The overlap region between these two pictures, where both yield similar predictions, is referred to as quark-hadron duality and has been extensively studied in reactions involving unpolarized hadrons. Some limited information on this phenomenon also exists for polarized protons, deuterons, and 3 He nuclei, but not yet for neutrons. Purpose: In this paper, we present comprehensive and detailed results on the correspondence between the extrapolated deep inelastic structure function g 1 of both the proton and the neutron with the same quantity measured in the nucleon resonance region. Thanks to the fine binning and high precision of our data, and using a well-controlled perturbative QCD (pQCD) fit for the partonic prediction, we can make quantitative statements about the kinematic range of applicability of both local duality and global duality. Method: We use the most updated QCD global analysis results at high x from the Jefferson Lab Angular Momentum Collaboration to extrapolate the spin structure function g 1 into the nucleon resonance region and then integrate over various intervals in the scaling variable x. We compare the results with the large data set collected in the quark-hadron transition region by the CLAS Collaboration, including, for the first time, deconvoluted neutron data, integrated over the same intervals. We present this comparison as a function of the momentum transfer Q 2 . Results: We find that, depending on the integration interval and the minimum momentum transfer chosen, a clear transition to quark-hadron duality can be observed in both nucleon species. Furthermore, we show, for the first time, the approach to scaling behavior for g 1 measured in the resonance region at sufficiently high momentum transfer. Conclusions: Here, our results can be used to quantify the deviations from the applicability of pQCD for data taken at moderate energies and can help with extraction of quark distribution functions from such data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deep Learning-based Parameterization of Complex 3D CO2 Saturation Data in Large-scale Geological Carbon Storage

In deep learning (DL), dimension reduction plays a pivotal role in improving training efficiency and minimizing overfitting, especially when working with complex datasets like three-dimensional (3D) saturation data. In the context of geological carbon storage (GCS), 3D saturation data introduces unique challenges due to its sparse nature and sharp transitions at plume boundaries, known as shock fronts. To tackle these challenges, we developed a novel DL framework that combines dimension reduction with advanced 3D reconstruction techniques. Our approach utilizes latent variables derived from 2D average saturation fields to efficiently capture the essential features of high-dimensional data while reducing the number of variables. This enhances both the robustness and accuracy of DL models, making the framework more practical for real-world applications. By offering a tailored solution for modeling complex 3D saturation dynamics, this framework holds significant potential for environmental monitoring, energy storage, and other geological applications.

Wang, Hongsheng [University of Texas at Austin]↗

PAVC Gridded 20m Alaska NGEE Tier3 PFTs v1.0

These 20-meter spatial resolution gridded products provide per-pixel fractional cover (%) of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) Arctic Plant Functional Types (PFTs) Tier 3 across Alaska, north of the boreal treeline. The products were developed for the NGEE Arctic project, which is improving Arctic vegetation representation and parameterization of the E3SM Land Model. This dataset includes 8 files containing fractional cover for NGEE Tier 3 PFTs (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/2529470): (1) bryophytes; (2) lichens; (3) non-vascular plants, i.e., the sum of lichens and bryophytes; (4) deciduous shrubs, (5) evergreen shrubs, (6) forbs, (7) graminoids, and a non-PFT class, (8) litter. Each pixel contains the percent cover (expressed as a fraction of total ground cover) that was predicted by random-forest regression models. The random-forest models were trained on cover data collected at 978 plots from 2010 to 2021, of which are archived in the Pan-Arctic Vegetation Cover (PAVC) database (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2483557). The plot cover was linked to 20-meter spatial resolution, satellite-derived predictor variables: Sentinel-2 spectra and Sentinel-1 polarizations averaged over the 2019 growing season, as well as topographical features derived from ArcticDEM. Then, spatio-temporally anomalous plot data that introduced large variability to the regression outcomes were dropped using the Cook’s distance outlier detection method, and the models were re-created using high-quality plots and their associated satellite derived explanatory variables per each PFT. The correlations between plot-observed and satellite-derived fractional cover for all PFTs were well correlated (R2 = 0.69–0.95 and 0.5 for litter) and had low RMSE bias (0.02–0.11). This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Arctic project. The NGEE Arctic project was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HexWeather: Hexagonal Spatial Data Aggregation for Weather-Driven Grid Resilience Analysis

Extreme weather accounts for over 8 0 % of major U.S. power outages since 2000, highlighting the need for spatial tools that align weather data with the irregular boundaries of electric infrastructure. This paper introduces HexWeather, a modular, resolution-aware framework for aggregating historical and forecasted weather data using Uber's H3 hexagonal spatial indexing system. Unlike traditional methods that rely on state or county-level grids, HexWeather enables weather analysis across custom geographies such as utility service areas where public datasets are often unavailable or misaligned. Using Open-Meteo data, we evaluate how H3 resolution affects anomaly detection, spatial variability, and forecast uncertainty across three scales: state, county, and utility. Results show that while coarse resolutions suffice for broad trend tracking, finer resolutions are essential for identifying localized variability and operational risks. By applying metrics like Z-score standard deviation and interquartile range, HexWeather quantifies the spatial spread of both historical anomalies and forecasted conditions, allowing users to assess resolution adequacy for each analysis. This framework supports rapid weather data reuse, reproducible anomaly detection, and predictive modeling for infrastructure resilience. By bridging spatial misalignment in traditional datasets and enabling retrospective and forward-looking analysis within the same pipeline, HexWeather lays the groundwork for better post event analysis, outage prediction, and resilience planning.

Morris, Jacob [ORNL]↗

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

Chapter 14: Machine Learning of Combustion LES Models from Reacting Direct Numerical Simulation

In this chapter we demonstrate how supervised deep learning techniques can be used to construct models for the filtered progress variable source term necessary for large eddy simulation (LES). The source data for the model is a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a reacting flow in a low swirl burner configuration. Filtered quantities taken from the DNS data are used to train a deep neural network (DNN)-based model. An efficient data sampling strategy was devised to ensure that a uniform representation of all the states observed in the filtered DNS data are equally present in the training dataset. A-priori testing of the DNN-based model highlights the representative power of DNN to accurately reproduce the filtered reaction progress variable source term over a range of scales and various flame regimes as seen in an industrial burner.

combustion LES models↗

Five Year Comparison of Mixing Height Determinations at the Savannah River Site

Air quality dispersion modeling is performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) to demonstrate compliance with applicable regulations. The AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) modeling system is an EPA recommended model for air quality applications with a data preprocessor (AERMET) to incorporate meteorological data collected on site. AERMET parameterizes or calculates meteorological variables that are not directly measured onsite. One of the parameters estimated by AERMET is the atmospheric mixing height. While the mixing height is not currently a measurement input into AERMET, SRS has the capability to measure the local mixing height. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) operates a Vaisala CL31 Lidar Ceilometer which estimates mixing height from aerosol backscatter. This study compares the parameterized mixing height from AERMET to the ceilometer estimated mixing height for the current regulatory period at SRS incorporating data from 2015-2019. Results from this study showed the average daily minimum values (morning) from AERMET were an order of magnitude lower than the commonly used Holzworth (1972) method and the ceilometer estimated mixing heights. Additionally, on average, the ceilometer exhibited a daily maximum mixing height value that occurred 1-3 hours later than the AERMET estimated maximum. This difference is likely due to the nighttime atmospheric mixing height assumptions and calculations used by AERMET. The AERMET algorithm cuts off mixing height growth at sunset while the ceilometer data show ongoing evening convection typical of the southeastern United States. These results suggest that the AERMET parametrization scheme assumptions may not be representative of a forested landscape and evening convection which could account for more mixing overnight. The results obtained in this study are significant for air dispersion modeling applications for regulatory purposes and worker safety. Mixing height can impact model estimated pollutant concentrations. A greater mixing height will provide more volume for pollutant dispersion. This report documents efforts to quantify the dependence of mixing height inputs toward a conservative estimated pollutant concentration.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Fourth Edition

As the world increasingly seeks low-carbon energy solutions, solar power emerges as the most abundant resource on our planet. However, the challenge of effectively harnessing this energy is crucial in the coming years. Solar energy applications such as photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power use different technologies to capitalize on sunlight. Each system has unique capabilities and requirements, underscoring the need for reliable information about solar resources across diverse installations, from residential rooftops to large-scale power plants. This is especially important for substantial projects, often exceeding $1 billion in construction costs. Before embarking on such ventures, it is imperative to obtain accurate data concerning solar resource quality and reliability at specific sites. Developers require detailed historical information, including seasonal, daily, hourly, and, ideally, subhourly variability to effectively predict a power plant's annual performance. Without these vital data, financial analyses fall short. Moreover, with the growing adoption of distributed photovoltaics, integrating these generation sources becomes critical to maintaining grid reliability and stability. By accurately forecasting generation patterns, utilities and system operators can facilitate greater integration of solar energy, thus ensuring the operational stability of the grid. The complexity and importance of these issues have prompted the foremost experts in the field to collaborate under the auspices of the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) Task 16 to publish this handbook, which summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics. The efforts focus on providing reliable data and insights that can help shape our investments in solar energy and drive a sustainable future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Measurements from mobile surface vehicles during the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE)

Abstract. Between 14 and 20 July 2018, small unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) were deployed to the San Luis Valley of Colorado (USA) alongside surface-based remote sensors, in situ sensors, and radiosonde systems as part of the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE). The measurements collected as part of LAPSE-RATE targeted quantities related to enhancing our understanding of boundary layer structure, cloud and aerosol properties and surface–atmosphere exchange and provide detailed information to support model evaluation and improvement work. Additionally, intensive intercomparison between the different unmanned aircraft platforms was completed. The current paper describes the observations obtained using three different types of surface-based mobile observing vehicles. These included the University of Colorado Mobile UAS Research Collaboratory (MURC), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Severe Storms Laboratory Mobile Mesonet, and two University of Nebraska Combined Mesonet and Tracker (CoMeT) vehicles. Over the 1-week campaign, a total of 143 h of data were collected using this combination of vehicles. The data from these coordinated activities provide detailed perspectives on the spatial variability of atmospheric state parameters (air temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind) throughout the northern half of the San Luis Valley. These datasets have been checked for quality and published to the Zenodo data archive under a specific “community” setup for LAPSE-RATE (https://zenodo.org/communities/lapse-rate/, last access: 21 January 2021) and are accessible at no cost by all registered users. The primary dataset DOIs are https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3814765 (CU MURC measurements; de Boer et al., 2020d), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3738175 (NSSL MM measurements; Waugh, 2020), and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3838724 (UNL CoMeT measurements; Houston and Erwin, 2020).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Gross and Net Soil Methane Flux and Ancillary Data, Edgewater, MD, USA, summer 2022

This data package contains measurements used to quantify methane cycling and environmental conditions in coastal forest soils during the 2022 growing season. It includes time‑series data of soil methane flux, soil respiration, soil temperature, and volumetric water content collected from soil monoliths transplanted along an inundation and salinity gradient. The package also provides one‑time measurements from a stable‑isotope pool‑dilution incubation, including gravimetric water content, methane headspace concentrations, and ¹³CH₄ enrichment over time. Data files are provided in comma‑separated values (CSV) format, with accompanying metadata and readme documentation in PDF and plain‑text formats. All files can be opened with standard software such as R, Python, or spreadsheet programs capable of handling CSV files. The metadata file describes variable definitions, units, processing steps, and the structure of each data table to support reuse and integration with other datasets.

13-C↗

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Autoencoder-LSTM and Persistence Model

Inherent variability in photovoltaic (PV) and associated impacts on power systems is a challenging problem for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Existing statistical and machine learning algorithms typically work well for weather conditions similar to historical data. Furthermore, uncertain weather conditions pose a great challenge to the estimation accuracy of the estimation models. With the enhanced integration of intelligent electronic devices and the realization of associated automation in the power grid, renewable energy data is becoming more accessible, which can be utilized by deep learning models and improve the PV power generation estimation accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model driven by external weather data is proposed to do day-ahead PV output forecasting at 15-minute-interval. The proposed model is motivated by the recent advancement of Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks and AutoEncoder (AE), which estimates uncertainties in sequence while making the prediction for complex weather conditions. Meanwhile, the persistence model (PM) is used to predict continuous sunny weather conditions. The forecasting result is validated with data from multiple locations

42 ENGINEERING↗