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At least 847 records · Page 47

Rainfall-driven Flooding Capability Development Report

Globally, floods are among the most frequent and costly natural disasters, both socially and economically. Many of these floods result from excess rainfall collecting in streams and rivers, then overtopping banks and flowing overland into urban environments, damaging critical infrastructure. In Fiscal Year 2012, the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center’s (NISAC) goal was to enhance its existing flood modeling and simulation capability to be able to estimate flooding from rainfall-runoff events. To accomplish this task, NISAC modified the existing flood modeling code-base using commodity high-performance computing hardware, making it more suitable for regional rainfall events. NISAC also implemented new modules within the existing flood code to account for hydrologic processes, such as spatially variable rainfall and infiltration. Analysts subjected the new hydrologic model to a verification and validation process, wherein analysts evaluated the model using a bench-scale experiment and watershed scale rainfall-runoff events. The bench-scale experiment indicated that the new hydrologic model is mass and momentum conserving and can adequately simulate runoff for depths of inches of water. The watershed scale simulations indicated that the hydrologic model is a good predictor of the discharge hydrograph when compared to observations if the input parameters, such as roughness and hydraulic conductivity, are adequately calibrated. The intended use of the hydrologic model is to estimate flood potential during extreme rainfall events. The accuracy of the predictions is largely dependent on the availability of accurate spatial data for soil and roughness parameters. In addition, each simulation should be accompanied with a calibration exercise, which requires historical rainfall and river discharge observations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Resilience Measurement Index: An Indicator of Critical Infrastructure Resilience

The world faces numerous threats from both natural and man-made sources. Since the beginning of the 21 st century, in the United States alone, we have experienced several devastating events. Incidents such as the attacks on the World Trade Center in 2001, the Northeast blackout in 2003, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Superstorm Sandy in 2012 have had far-reaching impacts that have directly affected our society’s well-being. Although current efforts that have focused on preventing or mitigating the impact of incidents have achieved admirable results, a more comprehensive approach is needed to improve the nation’s overall resilience. An all-hazards methodology that emphasizes not only protection but also preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery programs and capabilities is desired. Presidential Policy Directive 21 defines 16 critical infrastructure sectors that are essential to the nation’s security, public health and safety, economic vitality, and general quality of life (White House, 2013). If the operations of these critical infrastructure sectors are essential, their protection and resilience is paramount. As stated by President Obama, “Our goal is to ensure a more resilient Nation—one in which individuals, communities, and our economy can adapt to changing conditions as well as withstand and rapidly recover from disruption due to emergencies” (Department of Homeland Security, 2010a). Enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructure requires its owners/operators to determine the ability of the system to withstand specific threats, minimize or mitigate potential impacts, and to return to normal operations if degradation occurs. Thus, a resilience methodology requires the comprehensive assessment of critical infrastructure systems/assets—from threat to consequence. The methodology needs to support decision-making for risk management, disaster response, and business continuity. Considering these issues, the Infrastructure Assurance Center at Argonne National Laboratory, in partnership with the Protective Security Coordination Division of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), has developed an index, the Resilience Measurement Index (RMI), to characterize the resilience of critical infrastructure.

Petit, F. D. P.↗

RE-ASSUME: A Decision Maker's Guide to Evaluating Energy Scenarios, Modeling, and Assumptions

The desire for a “crystal ball” to peer into the future has perhaps never been stronger among energy and environmental planners. While the future has always been uncertain, the interconnectedness of modern economic systems serves to enhance the ripple effect of our energy actions. Today's decisions also seem to be made under heightened uncertainty, as demonstrated by the number of recent unexpected events, such as a prolonged economic recession, an unfolding shale energy revolution, the Fukushima disaster, the Arab Spring, and a notable reduction in photovoltaic costs. Policymakers have historically relied on energy scenarios and modeling to help inform decision making. While there exists a wealth of advanced model, data, and energy scenario options, important questions remain about how to effectively apply these tools to help plan for an uncertain future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Preparing Communities for Nuclear Terrorism

Both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have designated the potential use of nuclear or radiological weapons by a terrorist organization as the most significant danger facing American society. In order to confront this threat the Obama Administration’s 2011 National Strategy for Counterterrorism states, “We recognize that no nation, no matter how powerful, can prevent every threat from coming to fruition. That is why we are focused on building a culture of resilience able to prevent, respond to, or recover fully from any potential act of terror directed at the United States.”1 Promoting the necessary transition of a “culture of resilience” from ambitious rhetoric to plausible reality requires American communities to serve as the primary initiators. Rather than begin with a top down strategy at the national level, it is necessary to ingrain a whole of community approach at the local, state, and federal stages. Through utilization of resiliency planning techniques stakeholders can prepare for a wide spectrum of hazards ranging from natural disasters to the threat of nuclear terrorism. The National Strategy for Counterterrorism affirms that, “Supporting community leaders and influential local stakeholders as they develop solutions tailored to their own particular circumstances is a critical part of our whole-of-government approach that contributes to our counterterrorism goals.” A catalyst for increasing community resilience is knowledge of the threat, what preparedness actions to take, how to implement those actions and communal consensus on why these actions are beneficial. It is important for community leaders to understand the risks associated with nuclear/radiological terrorism and the initial steps required to mitigate these dangers through resilience.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

A literature review of safety culture.

Workplace safety has been historically neglected by organizations in order to enhance profitability. Over the past 30 years, safety concerns and attention to safety have increased due to a series of disastrous events occurring across many different industries (e.g., Chernobyl, Upper Big-Branch Mine, Davis-Besse etc.). Many organizations have focused on promoting a healthy safety culture as a way to understand past incidents, and to prevent future disasters. There is an extensive academic literature devoted to safety culture, and the Department of Energy has also published a significant number of documents related to safety culture. The purpose of the current endeavor was to conduct a review of the safety culture literature in order to understand definitions, methodologies, models, and successful interventions for improving safety culture. After reviewing the literature, we observed four emerging themes. First, it was apparent that although safety culture is a valuable construct, it has some inherent weaknesses. For example, there is no common definition of safety culture and no standard way for assessing the construct. Second, it is apparent that researchers know how to measure particular components of safety culture, with specific focus on individual and organizational factors. Such existing methodologies can be leveraged for future assessments. Third, based on the published literature, the relationship between safety culture and performance is tenuous at best. There are few empirical studies that examine the relationship between safety culture and safety performance metrics. Further, most of these studies do not include a description of the implementation of interventions to improve safety culture, or do not measure the effect of these interventions on safety culture or performance. Fourth, safety culture is best viewed as a dynamic, multi-faceted overall system composed of individual, engineered and organizational models. By addressing all three components of safety culture, organizations have a better chance of understanding, evaluating, and making positive changes towards safety within their own organization.

Cole, Kerstan Suzanne↗

Promoting Sustainable Economic Growth in Mexico (Fact Sheet)

Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America, with rapid growth occurring in the industrial and services sectors. A forward-thinking country on climate change, the nation recognizes that the threat of higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and more frequent weather-related disasters could pose a substantial risk to its expanding economy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Strategic planning for power system restoration

This contribution to NISAC's fast response is to answer the problem of how to stockpile power system components throughout a state to minimize the restoration time after a natural disaster.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Topography-based Flood Planning and Optimization Capability Development Report

Globally, water-related disasters are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards. Flooding inflicts catastrophic damage on critical infrastructure and population, resulting in substantial economic and social costs. NISAC is developing LeveeSim, a suite of nonlinear and network optimization models, to predict optimal barrier placement to protect critical regions and infrastructure during flood events. LeveeSim currently includes a high-performance flood model to simulate overland flow, as well as a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement during a flood event. The LeveeSim suite models the effects of flooding in predefined regions. By manipulating a domain’s underlying topography, developers altered flood propagation to reduce detrimental effects in areas of interest. This numerical altering of a domain’s topography is analogous to building levees, placing sandbags, etc. To induce optimal changes in topography, NISAC used a novel application of an optimization algorithm to minimize flooding effects in regions of interest. To develop LeveeSim, NISAC constructed and coupled hydrodynamic and optimization algorithms. NISAC first implemented its existing flood modeling software to use massively parallel graphics processing units (GPUs), which allowed for the simulation of larger domains and longer timescales. NISAC then implemented a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement based on output from flood simulations. As proof of concept, NISAC developed five simple test scenarios, and optimized topographic solutions were compared with intuitive solutions. Finally, as an early validation example, barrier placement was optimized to protect an arbitrary region in a simulation of the historic Taum Sauk dam breach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantitative adaptation analytics for assessing dynamic systems of systems: LDRD Final Report

Our society is increasingly reliant on systems and interoperating collections of systems, known as systems of systems (SoS). These SoS are often subject to changing missions (e.g., nation- building, arms-control treaties), threats (e.g., asymmetric warfare, terrorism), natural environments (e.g., climate, weather, natural disasters) and budgets. How well can SoS adapt to these types of dynamic conditions? This report details the results of a three year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project aimed at developing metrics and methodologies for quantifying the adaptability of systems and SoS. Work products include: derivation of a set of adaptability metrics, a method for combining the metrics into a system of systems adaptability index (SoSAI) used to compare adaptability of SoS designs, development of a prototype dynamic SoS (proto-dSoS) simulation environment which provides the ability to investigate the validity of the adaptability metric set, and two test cases that evaluate the usefulness of a subset of the adaptability metrics and SoSAI for distinguishing good from poor adaptability in a SoS. Intellectual property results include three patents pending: A Method For Quantifying Relative System Adaptability, Method for Evaluating System Performance, and A Method for Determining Systems Re-Tasking.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Lotic Water Hydrodynamic Model

Water-related natural disasters, for example, floods and droughts, are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards, both socially and economically. Many of these floods are a result of excess rainfall collecting in streams and rivers, and subsequently overtopping banks and flowing overland into urban environments. Floods can cause physical damage to critical infrastructure and present health risks through the spread of waterborne diseases. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed Lotic, a state-of-the-art surface water hydrodynamic model, to simulate propagation of flood waves originating from a variety of events. Lotic is a two-dimensional (2D) flood model that has been used primarily for simulations in which overland water flows are characterized by movement in two dimensions, such as flood waves expected from rainfall-runoff events, storm surge, and tsunamis. In 2013, LANL developers enhanced Lotic through several development efforts. These developments included enhancements to the 2D simulation engine, including numerical formulation, computational efficiency developments, and visualization. Stakeholders can use simulation results to estimate infrastructure damage and cascading consequences within other sets of infrastructure, as well as to inform the development of flood mitigation strategies.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

New Generator Technology

New generator technology project is driven by the need to be able to remotely deploy generator technology where it is needed, when it is needed. Both the military and aid programs that provide assistance after disasters could use the ability to deploy energy generation that fits the needs of the situation. Currently, pre-specified generators are deployed, sometime more than half way around the world to provide electricity. Through our Phase-I to Phase III DARPA grant, we will provide a mechanism where a 3d print station and raw materials could be shipped to a deployment site and remotely deployed personnel. These remote personnel can collaborate with engineers at a home location where 3d print plans can be optimized for the remote purpose. The plans can then be sent electronically to the remote location for printing, much like NASA sent the plans for a socket wrench to the International Space Station for printing in . If multiple generators need to be deployed at different remote locations, within miles of each other the printer rig can be moved to print the generators where they are needed. 3d printing is growing in the field of manufacturing. 3d printing has matured to the point where many types of materials are now available for many types of manufacturing. Both magnetic and electrically conductive material materials have recently been developed which can now lead to 3d printing of engines and generators. Our project will provide a successful printer rig that can be remotely deployed, to print a generator design in the field as well as provide a process for deploying the printed generator as well. This Systems Engineering Management Plan(SEMP) will provide the planning required for a Phase I DARPA grant that may also include goals for Phase II and Phase II grants. The SEMP provides a proposed project schedule, references, system engineering processes, specialty engineering system deployment and product support sections. Each section will state how our company will provide the necessary services to make this project succeed.

3D printing, manufacturing, generator technology, ↗

C6 plate puncture testing report.

There are numerous scenarios where critical systems could be subject to penetration by projectiles or fixed objects (e.g., collision, natural disaster, act of terrorism, etc.). It is desired to use computational models to examine these scenarios and make risk-informed decisions; however, modeling of material failure is an active area of research, and new models must be validated with experimental data. The purpose of this report is to document the experimental work performed from FY07 through FY08 on the Campaign Six Plate Puncture project. The goal of this project was to acquire experimental data on the puncture and penetration of metal plates for use in model validation. Of particular interest is the PLH failure model also known as the multilinear line segment model. A significant amount of data that will be useful for the verification and validation of computational models of ductile failure were collected during this project were collected and documented herein; however, much more work remains to be performed, collecting additional experimental data that will further the task of model verification.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Mississippi State University Cooling, Heating, and Power (Micro-CHP) and Bio-Fuel Center

Between 2008 and 2014, the U.S. Department of Energy funded the MSU Micro-CHP and Bio-Fuel Center located at Mississippi State University. The overall objective of this project was to enable micro-CHP (micro-combined heat and power) utilization, to facilitate and promote the use of CHP systems and to educate architects, engineers, and agricultural producers and scientists on the benefits of CHP systems. Therefore, the work of the Center focused on the three areas: CHP system modeling and optimization, outreach, and research. In general, the results obtained from this project demonstrated that CHP systems are attractive because they can provide energy, environmental, and economic benefits. Some of these benefits include the potential to reduce operational cost, carbon dioxide emissions, primary energy consumption, and power reliability during electric grid disruptions. The knowledge disseminated in numerous journal and conference papers from the outcomes of this project is beneficial to engineers, architects, agricultural producers, scientists and the public in general who are interested in CHP technology and applications. In addition, more than 48 graduate students and 23 undergraduate students, benefited from the training and research performed in the MSU Micro-CHP and Bio-Fuel Center. The project scope consisted of six separate, but related areas: 1. Micro-CHP modeling - Computational simulations and verification/validation studies of selected models for technical and economic viability. 2. Fuel flexibility in micro-CHP applications – Demonstrating and quantifying the operation of micro-CHP systems on alternative fuels. 3. Outreach activities – Providing provide educational materials for engineers and architects and conducting outreach seminars, workshops, and demonstrations for engineers and architects as well as for more general audiences. 4. Biofuel and opportunity fuel processing and utilization – Determining the processing requirements and feasibility to utilize biofuels and disaster debris for micro-CHP systems. 5. CHP Systems Optimization – Optimization of internal combustion and Stirling engines integrated with heat recovery systems for CHP operation. 6. Distributed Generation and Grid Interconnection – Developing requirements and control systems for interconnection of micro-CHP systems with the electrical grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evolving the Land Information System into a Cloud Computing Service

The Land Information System (LIS) was developed to use advanced flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation frameworks to integrate extremely large satellite- and ground-based observations with advanced land surface models to produce continuous high-resolution fields of land surface states and fluxes. The resulting fields are extremely useful for drought and flood assessment, agricultural planning, disaster management, weather and climate forecasting, water resources assessment, and the like. We envisioned transforming the LIS modeling system into a scientific cloud computing-aware web and data service that would allow clients to easily setup and configure for use in addressing large water management issues. The focus of this Phase 1 project was to determine the scientific, technical, commercial merit and feasibility of the proposed LIS-cloud innovations that are currently barriers to broad LIS applicability. We (a) quantified the barriers to broad LIS utility and commercialization (high performance computing, big data, user interface, and licensing issues); (b) designed the proposed LIS-cloud web service, model-data interface, database services, and user interfaces; (c) constructed a prototype LIS user interface including abstractions for simulation control, visualization, and data interaction, (d) used the prototype to conduct a market analysis and survey to determine potential market size and competition, (e) identified LIS software licensing and copyright limitations and developed solutions, and (f) developed a business plan for development and marketing of the LIS-cloud innovation. While some significant feasibility issues were found in the LIS licensing, overall a high degree of LIS-cloud technical feasibility was found.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Induced Spillover and Implications for U.S. Security.

Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate change than the developed world due to poorly managed human/natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. These vulnerabilities often give rise to a climate induced “domino effect” of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. Integral to this cascading set of events is increased human migration, leading to the “spillover” of impacts to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Given the complexity of factors influencing human migration and the resultant spill-over effect, quantitative tools are needed to aid policy analysis. Toward this need, a series of migration models were developed along with a system dynamics model of the spillover effect. The migration decision models were structured according to two interacting paths, one that captured long-term “chronic” impacts related to protracted deteriorating quality of life and a second focused on short-term “acute” impacts of disaster and/or conflict. Chronic migration dynamics were modeled for two different cases; one that looked only at emigration but at a national level for the entire world; and a second that looked at both emigration and immigration but focused on a single nation. Model parameterization for each of the migration models was accomplished through regression analysis using decadal data spanning the period 1960-2010. A similar approach was taken with acute migration dynamics except regression analysis utilized annual data sets limited to a shorter time horizon (2001-2013). The system dynamics spillover model was organized around two broad modules, one simulating the decision dynamics of migration and a second module that treats the changing environmental conditions that influence the migration decision. The environmental module informs the migration decision, endogenously simulating interactions/changes in the economy, labor, population, conflict, water, and food. A regional model focused on Mali in western Africa was used as a test case to demonstrate the efficacy of the model.

Tidwell, Vincent C.↗

A New Appraisal- Lessons from the History of Efforts to Value Green and High-Performance Home Attributes in the United States

Rigorous consideration of green and high-performance (“green/HP”) features is rarely included in the property valuation process._ To help illuminate why this is the case, this report takes stock of the history of efforts to improve practices, and identifies barriers that have emerged and opportunities for overcoming them. Particular emphasis is placed on what energy and environmental policymakers and other stakeholders outside the appraisal community can contribute to the broader effort to advance professional practices. The history has unfolded in parallel with turbulent periods in the housing market for which appraisers and their customers are deemed to share responsibility, followed by cycles of regulations, siloing of appraisers in the name of professional integrity, and commoditization of the valuation process itself. This pattern has important ramifications for aspirations that appraisers engage more fully in identifying and valuing the green/HP characteristics of homes. On the one hand, it is legally and ethically incumbent on appraisers to do so, yet on the other hand it is perceived as a risky avenue to follow. Risks arise where findings can be challenged as either over- or under-stating value, together with a market environment in which the complexity of their assignments increases despite downward pressure on appraiser fees. While efforts to address green/HP considerations date back to the early 1980s, the vast majority of activity has taken place within the past five years. Many players have engaged in the efforts to promote improved valuation practices. These include the Appraisal Foundation, The Appraisal Institute, Colorado Energy Office, Earth Advantage, EcoBroker, Elevate Energy, Fannie Mae, Federal Housing Administration, Home Innovation Research Labs, The Institute for Market Transformation, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of State Energy Officials, National Association of Appraisers, RESNET, USEPA, USDOE and its National Laboratories, the U.S. Green Buildings Council, and the Vermont Green Homes Alliance. Many activities have resulted, ranging from trainings, to data-gathering instruments, and the emergence of a literature attempting to statistically isolate the effects of green/HP characteristics on home values. In some cases, the results of studies have been overgeneralized and oversold, and embodied flawed methods. Although the green/HP community has encouraged appraisers to focus on exemplary buildings (e.g., LEED or ENERGY STAR Certified), any level of green or energy performance can in fact influence value, including below-average performance (a.k.a. “brown discount”), irrespective of whether or not the building has been formally rated. This overly narrow focus represents a significant missed opportunity. Other surmountable challenges include limitations to non-appraisers’ understanding of the appraisal process (and practical constraints therein). A byproduct of this can be unrealistic expectations of what appraisers can and will do in the marketplace. These challenges notwithstanding, the environment for moving forward has improved. There is better data today (a critical need); expanded efforts to disclose energy use information (characteristics, consumption, bills); improved and more pervasive building energy codes, building rating and labeling initiatives; and a host of federal, state, and local policies that have collectively brought green/HP practices much more into the mainstream. Meanwhile, a renewed focus on professional standards of care and competency for assessing green/HP homes make it increasingly important for appraisers to consider these factors in their assignments. Despite the past four decades of studies, there is little if any discernible uptake of these practices by the appraisal practice at large. It would behoove interested parties to step back and consider what new strategies might be productive. A key element of any new plan should be to reset the nature of interactions with the industry, with the goal a more collaborative, two-way discussion to help improve outsiders’ understanding of the valuation process. It is not only the appraiser that needs to be engaged and could benefit from awareness raising. Homeowners, builders, lenders, utilities, insurance companies should also provide input on how green/HP factors impact property valuations and ways to accurately reflect these considerations in appraisals and real estate transactions more broadly. Given extensive inertia within the appraisal industry and a mixed history of interactions with the non-appraisal stakeholders, it is unlikely that the status quo will achieve much unless followed with more coordinated and persistent efforts. Workshops, studies, and memoranda of understanding will not on their own have much impact, and do not address deeper structural issues. Expectations are often unrealistic and not attentive to real-world constraints faced by appraisers. The report identifies key barriers impeding more thorough consideration of green/HP factors in residential real estate appraisals, and solutions for mitigating them. Barriers • Although industry standards of practice caution against bias of any sort, a skeptical predisposition towards “green” is reinforced by information deficiencies. • Information deficiencies result from the lack or difficulty of obtaining usable data on green/HP features in subject properties as well as valid sales comparisons or cashflow analyses. • Competency deficiencies, such as lack of conversancy in relevant technical topics, leads to oversights, and disjointed treatment of relevant information. • Time/cost pressure and process commoditization (e.g., template-based approaches) result from highly constrained budgets, quick turn-around times expected of appraisers, and standardized practices that were not developed with green/HP considerations in mind. • Professional differences between appraisers and sustainability professionals include divergent objectives, the former being market observers and the latter market influencers. • Risk aversion arises from multiple concerns including veracity, accuracy, and persistence of energy data, impacts of operational choices, new sources of appraiser liability associated with green/HP assessments, industry pressures not to over-value buildings or suggestion of bias, and concern about spending non-billable time on complex assignments. • A public policy vacuum has been created by disjointed and uncoordinated efforts from public-sector stakeholders, insufficient efforts to discuss and understand the appraisal industry and process, and a perception by some valuation professionals that green/HP is oversold. Opportunities • Elevating the competency of appraisers can be achieved through a combination of improved industry standards of care and equal-access training and professional development offerings. • Development of better information resources must focus on building-level information that provides robust documentation as well as aggregate sales-comparison data and other contextual information such as local codes, typical upgrade costs, energy prices, etc. • Improved energy benchmarking and rating tools could provide appraisers with information more well-adapted to their particular needs, which differ from those of typical audiences such as energy managers. • Better characterizing and managing risk will enable appraisers to cope with uncertainties in performance information, and help identify where risks may be introduced or mitigated by green/HP features, including higher costs or obsolescence of poorly-performing buildings. • Integrating disaster resilience and sustainability in appraisals would recognize important synergisms among these features, including durability and ability of green/HP buildings to better withstand external hazards. • Mitigating the problem of additional time/cost for performing assignments is an essential need that can be addressed by providing easier access to information and analytic procedures, perhaps coupled with new resources to defray the associated costs. • Enhancing demand for improved appraisals is a fundamental need, and depends on owners, developers, lenders, and others soliciting competent appraisers to perform scopes that expressly call out green/HP considerations, and to critically review the work product for compliance before acceptance. • Engaging new market participants, such as energy utilities and insurance companies can ensure fuller representation and participation of market stakeholders already engaged in green/HP activities and capable of furnishing valuable data and managing associated risks. Cutting across these individual activities, there is a need for outside stakeholders to formulate and follow a roadmap instead of piecemeal initiatives, bridging the professional/cultural divide between appraisers and green/HP communities, and tracking progress in order to know what is working. A more coherent communication and training strategy is needed, as the appraisal industry is highly fragmented, with two-thirds of appraisers opting out of membership in trade associations. In sum, while there is no silver bullet for advancing the practice of valuing green/HP features, there are concrete opportunities. Parties seeking solutions must identify barriers they wish to address and select from among potential initiatives that map to those barriers. Close collaboration with the appraisal community is critical, as non-appraisers have historically obtained limited traction with this industry due to lack of understanding of the nuances involved in the valuation profession. Large organizations and agencies should have a united approach; the perception or reality of a fragmented and uncoordinated strategy is unsettling for prospective partners in the appraisal industry. This requires improved communication and education within and among these communities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

New York Solar Smart DG Hub-Resilient Solar Project: Economic and Resiliency Impact of PV and Storage on New York Critical Infrastructure

Resilient PV, which is solar paired with storage ('solar-plus-storage'), provides value both during normal grid operation and power outages as opposed to traditional solar PV, which functions only when the electric grid is operating. During normal grid operations, resilient PV systems help host sites generate revenue and/or reduce electricity bill charges. During grid outages, resilient PV provides critical emergency power that can help people in need and ease demand on emergency fuel supplies. The combination of grid interruptions during recent storms, the proliferation of solar PV, and the growing deployment of battery storage technologies has generated significant interest in using these assets for both economic and resiliency benefits. This report analyzes the technical and economic viability for resilient PV on three critical infrastructure sites in New York City (NYC): a school that is part of a coastal storm shelter system, a fire station, and a NYCHA senior center that serves as a cooling center during heat emergencies. This analysis differs from previous solar-plus-storage studies by placing a monetary value on resiliency and thus, in essence, modeling a new revenue stream for the avoided cost of a power outage. Analysis results show that resilient PV is economically viable for NYC's critical infrastructure and that it may be similarly beneficial to other commercial buildings across the city. This report will help city building owners, managers, and policymakers better understand the economic and resiliency benefits of resilient PV. As NYC fortifies its building stock against future storms of increasing severity, resilient PV can play an important role in disaster response and recovery while also supporting city greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and relieving stress to the electric grid from growing power demands.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Gary Laughlin IHNS Intro to 2015 HPC Annual Report

The International, Homeland, and Nuclear Security (IHNS) Program Management Unit (PMU) oversees a broad portfolio of Sandia’s programs in areas ranging from global nuclear security to critical asset protection. We use science and technology, innovative research, and global engagement to counter threats, reduce dangers, and respond to disasters. The PMU draws on the skills of scientists and engineers from across Sandia. Our programs focus on protecting US government installations, safeguarding nuclear weapons and materials, facilitating nonproliferation activities, securing infrastructures, countering chemical and biological dangers, and reducing the risk of terrorist threats. We conduct research in risk and threat analysis, monitoring and detection, decontamination and recovery, and situational awareness. We develop technologies for verifying arms control agreements, neutralizing dangerous materials, detecting intruders, and strengthening resiliency. Our programs use Sandia’s High-Performance Computing resources for predictive modeling and simulation of interdependent systems, for modeling dynamic threats and forecasting adaptive behavior, and for enabling decision support and processing large cyber data streams. In this report, we highlight four advanced computation projects that illustrate the breadth of the IHNS mission space.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗