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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

CrysFieldExplorer : rapid optimization of the crystal field Hamiltonian

A new approach to the fast optimization of crystal electric field (CEF) parameters to fit experimental data is presented. This approach is implemented in a lightweight Python-based program, CrysFieldExplorer. The main novelty of the method is the development of a unique loss function, referred to as the spectrum characteristic loss (L Spectrum ), which is based on the characteristic polynomial of the Hamiltonian matrix. Particle swarm optimization and a covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy are used to find the minimum of the total loss function. It is demonstrated that CrysFieldExplorer can perform direct fitting of CEF parameters to any experimental data such as a neutron spectrum, susceptibility or magnetization measurements etc. CrysFieldExplorer can handle a large number of non-zero CEF parameters and reveal multiple local and global minimum solutions. Crystal field theory, the loss function, and the implementation and limitations of the program are discussed within the context of two examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proposed Updates to Pu Evaluation for ENDF/B-VIII.0β 2 [Slides]

This presentation shows current status of in ENDF/B-VIII.0 and ENDF/B-VIII.0β 1 Pu evaluations. With a focus on the Pu thermal solutions (PST) and sanity check on fast metal assemblies (PMF). Pu ENDFβ 1 file in the low-energy region included updates in RRR (up to 2.5 keV), TNC and PFNS. Discussed are improvements over ENDF/B-VIII.0 in the C/E benchmarks (PST 81 cases) with preliminary ν p and cross section covariance generation for the resolved resonance energy range up to 2.25 keV. Highlighted are proposed updates for ENDFβ 2 with an extension of the RRR evaluation up to 5 keV, inclusion of Mosby’s data including proper resolution function (thanks to Marian J.), and a particular focus on η energy dependence from thermal up to 10 eV with the impact of the capture-to-fission ratio at 0.29 eV. This presentation concludes with an updated ν p and cross section covariance generation for the resolved resonance energy range up to 5 keV. And additional validation to test performance at about 2 eV and in the keV region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Stardust Navigation Covariance Analysis

The Stardust spacecraft was launched on February 7, 1999 aboard a Boeing Delta-II rocket. Mission participants include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Lockheed Martin Astronautics (LMA) and the University of Washington. The primary objective of the mission is to collect in-situ samples of the coma of comet Wild-2 and return those samples to the Earth for analysis. Mission design and operational navigation for Stardust is performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). This paper will describe the extensive JPL effort in support of the Stardust pre-launch analysis of the orbit determination component of the mission covariance study. A description of the mission and it's trajectory will be provided first, followed by a discussion of the covariance procedure and models. Predicted accuracy's will be examined as they relate to navigation delivery requirements for specific critical events during the mission. Stardust was launched into a heliocentric trajectory in early 1999. It will perform an Earth Gravity Assist (EGA) on January 15, 2001 to acquire an orbit for the eventual rendezvous with comet Wild-2. The spacecraft will fly through the coma (atmosphere) on the dayside of Wild-2 on January 2, 2004. At that time samples will be obtained using an aerogel collector. After the comet encounter Stardust will return to Earth when the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) will separate and land at the Utah Test Site (UTTR) on January 15, 2006. The spacecraft will however be deflected off into a heliocentric orbit. The mission is divided into three phases for the covariance analysis. They are 1) Launch to EGA, 2) EGA to Wild-2 encounter and 3) Wild-2 encounter to Earth reentry. Orbit determination assumptions for each phase are provided. These include estimated and consider parameters and their associated a-priori uncertainties. Major perturbations to the trajectory include 19 deterministic and statistical maneuvers planned for the mission. The spacecraft is three axis stabilized and has unbalanced thrusters for attitude control. Accelerations due to the attitude control system are treated stochastically. The tracking scenario for the study is patterned after the actual schedule employed during the different phases of the mission. Conventional X-band two-way Doppler and SRA range data was simulated and the standard accuracy for these data types was assumed throughout most of the mission. However, a deweighting scheme was used for the Doppler data during times of low Sun-Earth-Probe angles, especially in the case of the DSM. Optical data is assumed to be available starting at 50 days prior to the comet encounter. The optical data will be used to improve the ephemeris of Wild-2, which is considered crucial to properly target the comet flyby. Results of the covariance analysis are presented for all mission phases. Navigation capability will be discussed in terms of the uncertainty in the encounter B-Plane (B.R and B.T) and linearized time of flight. Delivery errors based on the final maneuver prior to the comet encounter will be presented. The most stringent navigation requirement is for the Earth reentry. The uncertainty in the flight path angle must be less than 0.02 degree (orbit determination and maneuver performance) to assure successful recovery of the SRC. Results presented show that this requirement can be met.

Menon, Premkumar R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Oveview of TROPESS Data Products and Services at the NASA GES DISC

The TRopospheric Ozone and Precursors from Earth System Sounding (TROPESS) project generates Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) of ozone, and other atmospheric constituents (CH4,CO, H2O, HDO, NH3, PAN and temperature) by processing data from multiple satellites through a common retrieval algorithm and ground data system. Satellite Level-1B input data used in generating the TROPESS L2 data products include CrIS NOAA-20 (JPSS-1), CrIS SNPP, AIRS Aqua, OMI Aura, and TROPOMI S5P. The common retrieval framework is known as the MUlti-SpEctra, MUlti-SpEcies, Multi-SEnsors (MUSES) science data processing system (MUSES-SDPS). Several of the TROPESS data products are now available from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center (GES DISC) for users to download. In this presentation we provide an overview of the various TROPESS data products. These data products can be divided into the following Forward Stream types: Standard Products, Summary Products, and Full-Archival Products. Standard Products are for users that are doing full analysis with avenging kernel and covariance corresponding to retrieved vertical profiles. Summary products have a smaller file size and are more convenient for first-look and rapid analysis, include total and partial columns, as well as column averaging kernels. The Full-Archival Products will contain all information used in creating the data. TROPESS also creates Special Products, provided on an as-needed and as-available basis to support NASA field missions and individual-investigator requests over specific regions. Eventually, TROPESS will also produce and deliver a set of Reanalysis Stream products. Data at the GES DISC are being transitioned into the "Cloud". This will allow users with "Cloud” access to perform data analysis directly on the data without downloading the data to their system. Services, such as subsetting and data visualization, will also be provided for TROPESS data products at the GES DISC.

James Johnson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

US-EUSST SSA Data Exchange for Improved Orbital Safety

Data sharing and exchange among different Space Situational Awareness (SSA) data collectors/providers is frequently discussed as a mechanism to improve the accuracy and precision of orbital safety products. Indeed, at the conceptual level this claim is quite sensible: objects with more tracking, and thus presumably better distribution of that tracking about their orbit, should produce updates with smaller epoch errors and more realistic covariances at epoch, which should then translate into better performance in prediction and thus improved close approach calculations. However, this thesis has not been verified with any large study involving two different data providers, through which the amount of realized improvement can be quantified and, perhaps more importantly, the logistics of effecting observation data sharing in a regularized way can be established and circulated to assist others. To create rubrics for helpful data sharing for conjunction assessment applications, and to collect empirical data on the improvements achieved through sharing of measurement data, the US Office of Space Commerce and the European Union Space Surveillance and Tracking (EUSST) Support Framework have embarked on a joint experiment to collect and exchange satellite metric observations on selected satellites of interest over an experimental period. Each entity will perform orbit determination with their own observations, the other entity’s observations, and with both observation data sets combined. The product results will be compared with each other, showing differences attributable both to the three different data groups and to the two entities’ different approaches to orbit determination. The exemplar satellites include both objects that have external precision reference ephemerides and those that do not, allowing the experiment to exercise both precision-comparison and assimilative-comparison techniques. The present reporting will give preliminary results and a set of lessons learned for data sharing; a second presentation later in 2023 will provide a full accounting of the experiment’s results. The hope is that, through this work, a pathway can be established for the expeditious and fruitful sharing among collection entities, both commercial and governmental.

space situational awareness↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial neural networks estimate evapotranspiration for Miscanthus × giganteus as effectively as empirical model but with fewer inputs

Estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET) is particularly crucial for addressing how vegetation affects the water balance of ecosystems. ET estimation can be complex with empirical models due to their many parameters and reliance on aridity. In contrast, artificial neural networks (ANNs) could potentially estimate ET with fewer and more common meteorological parameters. In this study, we trained two ANNs, one using a feed-forward approach (FFN) and the other a nonlinear auto-regressive network (NARX), to predict ET and compared them to the commonly used empirical model Granger and Gray (GG). We trained our models on a nine-year eddy covariance (EC) dataset for Miscanthu s × giganteus ( M . × giganteus ) from Illinois (UIEF), then tested them using out-of-sample data from both UIEF and a different location in Iowa (SABR) to compare the accuracy of FFN, NARX, and GG models in estimating daily ET. A combination of air temperature (T a ) and solar radiation (R s ) was chosen as inputs due to the highest R 2 for FFN (R 2 = 0.79, 0.81, and 0.79 for training, testing, and validation, respectively) and only T a for NARX (R 2 = 0.70 for out-of-sample validation). The predictive power of the FFN model was superior to the NARX and GG models at the UIEF site (R 2 = 0.84, 0.70, and 0.83 for out-of-sample validation, respectively). Our analysis showed that ANN approaches are as accurate as empirical approaches for estimating ET but use fewer inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Dynamical Mass of the Exoplanet β Pictoris b from Combined Direct Imaging and Astrometry

Herein, we present new observations of the planet β Pictoris b from 2018 with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI), the first GPI observations following conjunction. Based on these new measurements, we perform a joint orbit fit to the available relative astrometry from ground-based imaging, the Hipparcos Intermediate Astrometric Data (IAD), and the Gaia DR2 position, and demonstrate how to incorporate the IAD into direct imaging orbit fits. We find a mass consistent with predictions of hot-start evolutionary models and previous works following similar methods, though with larger uncertainties: $12.8^{+5.3}_{–3.2} M_{Jup}$. Our eccentricity determination of ${0.12}_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ disfavors circular orbits. We consider orbit fits to several different imaging data sets, and find generally similar posteriors on the mass for each combination of imaging data. Our analysis underscores the importance of performing joint fits to the absolute and relative astrometry simultaneously, given the strong covariance between orbital elements. Time of conjunction is well-constrained within 2.8 days of 2017 September 13, with the star behind the planet's Hill sphere between 2017 April 11 and 2018 February 16 (±18 days). Following the recent radial velocity detection of a second planet in the system, β Pic c, we perform additional two-planet fits combining relative astrometry, absolute astrometry, and stellar radial velocities. These joint fits find a significantly smaller mass (8.0 ± 2.6 M Jup) for the imaged planet β Pic b, in a somewhat more circular orbit. We expect future ground-based observations to further constrain the visual orbit and mass of the planet in advance of the release of Gaia DR4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A deep learning hybrid predictive modeling (HPM) approach for estimating evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration

Climate change is reshaping vulnerable ecosystems, leading to uncertain effects on ecosystem dynamics, including evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ). However, accurate estimation of ET and R eco still remains challenging at sparsely monitored watersheds, where data and field instrumentation are limited. In this study, we developed a hybrid predictive modeling approach (HPM) that integrates eddy covariance measurements, physically based model simulation results, meteorological forcings, and remote-sensing datasets to estimate ET and R eco in high space–time resolution. HPM relies on a deep learning algorithm and long short-term memory (LSTM) and requires only air temperature, precipitation, radiation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and soil temperature (when available) as input variables. We tested and validated HPM estimation results in different climate regions and developed four use cases to demonstrate the applicability and variability of HPM at various FLUXNET sites and Rocky Mountain SNOTEL sites in Western North America. To test the limitations and performance of the HPM approach in mountainous watersheds, an expanded use case focused on the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. The results indicate HPM is capable of identifying complicated interactions among meteorological forcings, ET, and R eco variables, as well as providing reliable estimation of ET and R eco across relevant spatiotemporal scales, even in challenging mountainous systems. The study documents that HPM increases our capability to estimate ET and R eco and enhances process understanding at sparsely monitored watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Navigation and meteorological error equations for some aerodynamic parameters

Mathematical equations for the analysis of the errors that are expected in a set of postflight aerodynamic parameters are presented. The errors are due to inaccuracies in the Shuttle best estimate trajectory and in the meteorological data obtained in support of the flights. The error analysis shows that the parameter vector, Z, and its associated error covariance matrix, C sub Z, is calculated from a given state vector, X, and its associated covariance matrix, C sub X.

Krikorian, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Circulation from a joint gravity field solution determination of the general ocean

With the development of satellite altimetry, it is possible to infer the geostrophic velocity of the surface ocean currents, if the geoid and the position of the satellite are known accurately. Errors in current geoid models and orbit computations, both due primarily to errors in the earth's gravity field model, have limited the use of altimeter data for this purpose. The objective of this investigation is to demonstrate that altimeter data can be used in a joint solution to simultaneously estimate the quasi-stationary sea surface topography, zeta, and the model for the gravity field. Satellite tracking data from twelve satellites were used along with Seasat altimeter data for the solution. The estimated model of zeta compares well at long wavelengths with the hydrographic model of zeta. Covariance analysis indicates that the geoid is separable from zeta up to degree 9, at which point geoid error is comparable to the signal of zeta.

Tapley, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A model of the general ocean circulation determined from a joint solution for the Earth's gravity field

If the geoid and the satellite position are known accurately, satellite altimetry can be used to determine the geostrophic velocity of the surface ocean currents. The purpose of this investigation is to simultaneously estimate the sea surface topography, zeta, the model for the gravity field, and the satellite orbit. Satellite tracking data from fourteen satellites were used; along with Seasat and Geosat altimeter data as well as surface gravity data for the solution. The estimated model of zeta compares well at long wavelengths with the hydrographic model of zeta. Covariance studies show that the geoid is separable from zeta up to degree 9, at which point geoid error becomes comparable to the signal of zeta.

Nerem, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fusion techniques using distributed Kalman filtering for detecting changes in systems

A comparison is made of the performances of two detection strategies that are based on different data fusion techniques. The strategies detect changes in a linear system. One detection strategy involves combining the estimates and error covariance matrices of distributed Kalman filters, generating a residual from the used estimates, comparing this residual to a threshold, and making a decision. The other detection strategy involves a distributed decision process in which estimates from distributed Kalman filters are used to generate distributed residuals which are compared locally to a threshold. Local decisions are made and these decisions are then fused into a global decision. The performances of each of these detection schemes are compared, and it is concluded that better performance is achieved when local decisions are made and then fused into a global decision.

Belcastro, Celeste M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

TDRSS-user orbit determination using batch least-squares and sequential methods

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) commissioned Applied Technology Associates, Incorporated, to develop the Real-Time Orbit Determination/Enhanced (RTOD/E) system on a Disk Operating System (DOS)-based personal computer (PC) as a prototype system for sequential orbit determination of spacecraft. This paper presents the results of a study to compare the orbit determination accuracy for a Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) user spacecraft, Landsat-4, obtained using RTOD/E, operating on a PC, with the accuracy of an established batch least-squares system, the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), and operating on a mainframe computer. The results of Landsat-4 orbit determination will provide useful experience for the Earth Observing System (EOS) series of satellites. The Landsat-4 ephemerides were estimated for the January 17-23, 1991, timeframe, during which intensive TDRSS tracking data for Landsat-4 were available. Independent assessments were made of the consistencies (overlap comparisons for the batch case and covariances and the first measurement residuals for the sequential case) of solutions produced by the batch and sequential methods. The forward-filtered RTOD/E orbit solutions were compared with the definitive GTDS orbit solutions for Landsat-4; the solution differences were less than 40 meters after the filter had reached steady state.

Oza, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Incorporation of a priori gravity field information in satellite orbit determination using bin parameters

A method to determine satellite orbits using tracking data and a priori gravitational field is described. The a priori constraint on the orbit dynamics is determined by the covariance matrix of the spherical harmonic coefficients for the gravity model, so that the optimal combination of the measurements and gravitational field is achieved. A set of bin parameters is introduced to represent the perturbation of the gravitational field on the position of the satellite orbit. The covariance matrix of a conventional gravity model is transformed into that for the bin parameters by the variational partial derivatives. The covariance matrices of the bin parameters and the epoch state are combined to form the covariance matrix of the satellite positions at the measurement times. The combined matrix is used as the a priori information to estimate the satellite positions with measurements.

Wu, Jiun-Tsong↗
DOE OSTI2022

ORNL Neutron Cross Section Measurements of 90 Zr NCSP ND-1 Task [Slides]

Luiz Leal's idea to integrate the experimental uncertainties, covariances, and sensitivities in the ND workflow and to centralize the process at one location created a cohesive tool for data testing. It has been practiced for more than two decades by the NCS and ND groups at ORNL. The development and use of the ORNL codes TSUNAMI and TSURFER within SCALE made it possible. Today, it has been extended to SAMINT, which enables the coupling of differential and integral data evaluation in a continuous-energy framework.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An influence of manufacturing tolerances on Pin-Cell k-infinity of MOX fuel using data from the FUBILA experiment program

An influence of manufacturing tolerances (MTs) was evaluated on the pin-cell k-infinity of MOX fuel through the random sampling of CASMO5 calculations. The data from the FUBILA experiment program was used as the manufacturing parameters. For the uncertainties of element/isotope mass fractions, their covariance matrices were calculated by the generalized least square method. The total k-infinity uncertainty was 120-250 pcm (percent mille). From the breakdown of k-infinity uncertainty per materials, the MTs of fuel pellet had a dominant influence. The individual influences were also evaluated for element/isotope mass fractions, an inner/outer diameter, and a density. Those of element/isotope mass fractions were less than a few dozen pcm. Since the perturbations of fuel pellet diameter and density caused large variations to the total amount of heavy metals and effect of spatial self-shielding, they had a negative correlation with the k-infinity perturbation. On the AG3 (Al-Mg alloy) over-cladding, the inner/outer diameter perturbations had both negative and positive correlations. The negative one was due to decrease in amount of light water and the positive one was due to increase in amount of AG3. Since the effect of neutron slowing-down by light water had a dominant influence, the influence of the former negative correlation was larger than that of the latter positive correlation. It is, therefore, concluded that the consideration of the MTs that had a large influence on the effect of neutron slowing-down is important for precise quantification of the pin-cell k-infinity uncertainty of MOX fuel. (author)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Consistent Inversion for Stochastic Input-to-Output Maps

Data-consistent inversion is a recently developed measure-theoretic framework for solving a stochastic inverse problem involving models of physical systems. The goal is to construct a probability measure on model inputs (i.e., parameters of interest) whose associated push-forward measure matches (i.e., is consistent with) a probability measure on the observable outputs of the model (i.e., quantities of interest). Previous implementations required the map from parameters of interest to quantities of interest to be deterministic. This work generalizes this framework for maps that are stochastic, i.e., contain uncertainties and variation not explainable by variations in uncertain parameters of interest. Generalizations of previous theorems of existence, uniqueness, and stability of the data-consistent solution are provided while new theoretical results address the stability of marginals on parameters of interest. A notable aspect of the algorithmic generalization is the ability to query the solution to generate independent identically distributed samples of the parameters of interest without requiring knowledge of the so-called stochastic parameters. This work therefore extends the applicability of the data-consistent inversion framework to a much wider class of problems. This includes those based on purely experimental and field data where only a subset of conditions are either controllable or can be documented between experiments while the underlying physics, measurement errors, and any additional covariates are either uncertain or not accounted for by the researcher. Finally, numerical examples demonstrate application of this approach to systems with stochastic sources of uncertainties embedded within the modeling of a system and a numerical diagnostic is summarized that is useful for determining if a key assumption is verified among competing choices of stochastic maps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is fundamentally different than other approaches to data fusion for remote sensing data because it is inferential rather than merely descriptive. All approaches combine data in a way that minimizes some specified loss function. Most of these are more or less ad hoc criteria based on what looks good to the eye, or some criteria that relate only to the data at hand.

Braverman, Amy J.↗