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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Optimized thermodynamic properties of REE aqueous species (REE 3+ and REEOH 2+ ) and experimental database for modeling the solubility of REE phosphate minerals (monazite, xenotime, and rhabdophane) from 25 to 300 °C

Rare earth elements (REE) are critical elements found in monazite, xenotime, and hydrated REE phosphates which typically form in hydrothermal mineral deposits. Accurate predictions of the solubility of these REE phosphates and the speciation of REE in aqueous fluids are both key to understanding the controls on the transport, fractionation, and deposition of REE in natural systems. Previous monazite and xenotime solubility experiments indicate the presence of large discrepancies between experimentally derived solubility constants versus calculated solubilities by combining different data sources for the thermodynamic properties of minerals and aqueous species at hydrothermal conditions. In this study, these discrepancies were resolved by using the program GEMSFITS to optimize the standard partial molal Gibbs energy of formation (Δ f G° 298 ) of REE aqueous species (REE 3+ and REE hydroxyl complexes) at 298.15 K and 1 bar while keeping the thermodynamic properties fixed for the REE phosphates. A comprehensive experimental database was compiled using solubility data available between 25 and 300 °C. The latter permits conducting thermodynamic parameter optimization of Δ f G° 298 for REE aqueous species. Optimal matching of the rhabdophane solubility data between 25 and 100 °C requires modifying the Δ f G° 298 values of REE 3+ by 1–6 kJ/mol, whereas matching of the monazite solubility data between 100 and 300 °C requires modifying the Δ f G° 298 values of both REE 3+ and REEOH 2+ by ~15–31 kJ/mol and ~2–10 kJ/mol, respectively. For xenotime, adjustments of Δ f G° 298 values by 1–26 kJ/mol are only necessary for the REE 3+ species. The optimizations indicate that the solubility of monazite in acidic solutions is controlled by the light (L)REE 3+ species at <150 °C and the LREEOH 2+ species at >150 °C, whereas the solubility of xenotime is controlled by the heavy (H)REE 3+ species between 25 and 300 °C. Based on the optimization results, we conclude that the revised Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state does not reliably predict the thermodynamic properties of REE 3+ , REEOH 2+ , and likely other REE hydroxyl species at hydrothermal conditions. We therefore provide an experimental database (ThermoExp_REE) as a basic framework for future updates, extensions with other ligands, and optimizations as new experimental REE data become available. As a result, the optimized thermodynamic properties of aqueous species and minerals are available open access to accurately predict the solubility of REE phosphates in fluid-rock systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plastic additives in the ocean: Use of a comprehensive dataset for meta-analysis and method development

In excess of 13,000 chemicals are added to plastics (‘additives’) to improve performance, durability, and production of plastic products. They are categorized into numerous chemical classes including flame retardants, light stabilizers, antioxidants, and plasticizers. While research on plastic additives in the marine environment has increased over the past decade, there is a lack of methodological standardization. To direct future measurement of plastic additives, we compiled a first-of-its-kind dataset of literature assessing plastic additives in marine environments, delineated by sample type (plastic debris, seawater, sediment, biota). Using this dataset, we performed a meta-analysis to summarize the state of the science. Currently, our dataset includes 217 publications published between 1978 and May 2023. The majority of publications analyzed plastic additives in biota collected from Europe and Asia. Analyses concentrated on plasticizers, brominated flame retardants, and bisphenols. Common sample preparation techniques included Solvent - Agitation extraction for plastic, sediment, and biota samples, and Solid Phase Extraction for seawater samples with dichloromethane and solvent mixtures including dichloromethane as the organic extraction solvent. Finally, most analyses were performed utilizing gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. There are a variety of data gaps illuminated by this meta-analysis, most notably the small number of compounds that have been targeted for detection compared to the large number of additives used in plastic production. The provided dataset facilitates future investigation of trends in plastic additive concentration data in the marine environment (allowing for comparison to toxicity thresholds) and acts as a starting point for optimizing and harmonizing plastic additive analytical methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Theoretical estimates of flammability bounds for thin condensed fuel diffusion flames in microgravity using detailed models of chemistry and radiation

Recently, U-shape flammability maps have been constructed showing minimal oxygen vs. flame strain for opposed flame spread in micro-gravity by Olson and Ferkul. The U-shape defines the limiting flammability bounds from radiative extinction and flame blow-off. Here, the minimum of the U corresponds to the minimum possible oxidizer concentration where burning can occur, and is an important quantity of interest for fire safety. While high strain extinction bounds have been well analyzed, low strain radiative extinction has not. To estimate low strain extinction, in this study an analytical theory is developed based on thin flame theory coupled with a heat and mass transfer model for solid fuels. A reaction progress variable based on the Damköhler number is adapted in the theory to account for incomplete combustion at high strain rates and enable the capturing of the full flammability map. The analytical model is compared to a one dimensional numerical model w/ detailed chemical kinetics and coupled radiation heat transfer in planar and spherical geometries. The flammability maps are then qualitatively compared to experimental extinguishment data compiled by Olson and Ferkul for cylindrical rods of PMMA showing similar trends. The results show the newly developed analytics capture the radiative extinction bound compared to the numerical model and qualitatively agrees with microgravity data.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2017

Rapid multiphase-field model development using a modular free energy based approach with automatic differentiation in MOOSE/MARMOT

In this paper, we present a novel rapid phase-field model development capability using a modular free energy based approach in the finite element based MOOSE framework. The phase-field equations are implemented in a general form as separate code form the model specific data such as the thermodynamic free energy density and mobility functions. This isolates researchers from complicated code and allows them to focus on implementing new material models. In addition, using a native symbolic differentiation algorithm, all required derivatives of the free energy density are automatically determined, removing sources for potential human error, and guaranteeing optimally preconditioned equation systems through fully populated Jacobian matrices. Free energy terms contributing to a phase-field model are abstracted into self contained objects that can be combined at will at simulation run time. Combining multiple chemical and mechanical free energy contributions allows the construction of coupled phase-field, mechanics, and multiphase models. Through just-in-time compilation, we greatly reduce the computational time required to evaluate the differentiated expressions. Lastly, we demonstrate the new capability on a variety of example simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

9Cr steel visualization and predictive modeling

The goals of this work were to develop tools to visualize and characterize materials information, to explore new alloy compositions and/or processing, to better predict tensile strength and other mechanical properties. The 9–12 wt% Cr (9Cr) steel test data were compiled from several sources. About 3000 records with 30 predictor variables represent 82 unique steel alloy compositions, variations of thermo-mechanical processing steps and temperatures (homogenization, normalization and tempering cycles), test conditions and outcomes. Detailed data processing steps such as visualization and exploratory analysis, including univariate and bivariate analysis, different clustering techniques used to segment the data, statistical post-hoc analysis to verify significance of the findings, feature engineering to identify predictors of importance, and predictive modeling with cross-validation were performed. The outcome of analysis at each step was reviewed in the context of the domain knowledge of this class of steel, to see if there were underlying physical mechanisms that explain statistical relationships. Data analytics techniques and their parameters were fine-tuned to facilitate interpretation of the results as aligned with the insights from domain experts. Here, the ensemble predictive modeling using Random Forest regressor and post-hoc means comparison corroborated domain knowledge on the role of Co which is known to increase strength of steel alloys through solid-solution strengthening and to affect diffusion of alloying elements and precipitates. Alloys with Co content of 0.7–8 wt% had significantly higher mean strength than the ones without (while having Cr locked within 10–11 wt% range in either group and keeping other compositional element ratios fixed). End products of the computational techniques exploration are presented as the tools that can be used in iterative workflow of materials development and testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep-freeze graph training for latent learning

Scientific and engineering advances are primarily driven by multi-tier conceptual constructs and conditional theoretical frameworks. The theories allow predictions of hypothetical system responses, given a set of approximate conditions (ranges of applicability) imposed on latent parameters that cannot be measured directly. Learning to estimate the latent variables (Latent Learning) helps to pinpoint the anticipated range-edge anomalies and improves the confidence in interpretation, interpolation and extrapolation of limited experimental data. Due to high dimensionality and extreme non-linearity of the materials science problems, very large datasets are typically required for conventional data-driven model development. The vital experimental data collection, particularly on microstructural phases, is very challenging, which makes it difficult to compile a high-quality database. Incorporation of the domain knowledge into the computational graph structure, initialization and optimization processes presents a viable mechanism for developing accurate models, with limited datasets. Furthermore, this study successfully utilized the approach to build the Deep Freeze Graph (DeepFreG) by mapping known causality relationships and by digitizing empirical domain knowledge for Latent Learning (LL), with specific applications in materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Overcoming small minirhizotron datasets using transfer learning

Minirhizotron technology is widely used to study root growth and development. Yet, standard approaches for tracing roots in minirhiztron imagery is extremely tedious and time consuming. Machine learning approaches can help to automate this task. However, lack of enough annotated training data is a major limitation for the application of machine learning methods. Transfer learning is a useful technique to help with training when available datasets are limited. In this paper, we investigated the effect of pre-trained features from the massives-cale, irrelevant ImageNet dataset and a relatively moderate-scale, but relevant peanut root dataset on switchgrass root imagery segmentation applications. We compiled two minirhizotron image datasets to accomplish this study: one with 17,550 peanut root images and another with 28 switchgrass root images. Both datasets were paired with manually labeled ground truth masks. Deep neural networks based on the U-net architecture were used with different pre-trained features as initialization for automated, precise pixel-wise root segmentation in minirhizotron imagery. We observed that features pre-trained on a closely related but relatively moderate size dataset like our peanut dataset were more effective than features pre-trained on the large but unrelated ImageNet dataset. Here, we achieved high quality segmentation on peanut root dataset with 99.04% accuracy at the pixel-level and overcame errors in human-labeled ground truth masks. By applying transfer learning technique on limited switchgrass dataset with features pre-trained on peanut dataset, we obtained 99% segmentation accuracy in switchgrass imagery using only 21 images for training (fine tuning). Furthermore, the peanut pre-trained features can help the model converge faster and have much more stable performance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

The VENUS/NWChem Software Package. Tight Coupling Between Chemical Dynamics Simulations and Electronic Structure Theory

The interface for VENUS and NWChem, and the resulting software package for direct dynamics simulations are described. The coupling of the two codes is considered to be a tight coupling. The two codes are compiled and linked together and act as one executable with data being passed between the two codes through routine calls. The advantages of this type of coupling are discussed. The interface has been designed to have as little interference as possible with the core codes of both VENUS and NWChem. VENUS is the code that propagates the direct dynamics trajectories and, therefore, is the program that drives the overall execution of VENUS/NWChem. VENUS has remained an essentially sequential code, which uses the highly parallel structure of NWChem. Subroutines of the interface which accomplish the data transmission and communication between the two computer programs are described. Recent examples of the use of VENUS/NWChem for direct dynamics simulations are summarized.

chemical dynamics simulation↗
DOE OSTI2022

tapir: A tool for topologies, amplitudes, partial fraction decomposition and input for reductions

The demand for precision predictions in the field of high energy physics has dramatically increased over recent years. Experiments conducted at the LHC, as well as precision measurements at the intensity frontier such as Belle II require equally precise theoretical predictions to make full use of the acquired data. To match the experimental precision, second-, third- and, for certain quantities, even higher-order calculations in perturbative quantum field theory are required. To facilitate such calculations, computer software automating as many steps as possible is required. Yet, each calculation poses different challenges and thus, a high level of configurability is required. In this context we present tapir: a tool for identification, manipulation and minimization of Feynman integral families. It is designed to integrate in toolchains based on the computer algebra system FORM, the use of which is common practice in the field. tapir can be used to reduce the complexity of multi-loop problems with cut-filters, topology mapping, partial fraction decomposition and alike. Program Title:tapir CPC Library link to program files:https://doi.org/10.17632/ptc9t46xyn.1 Developer's repository link:https://gitlab.com/tapir-devs/tapir Licensing provisions: GPLv3 Programming language:python 3, C++ Nature of problem: Multi-loop computations require the automatization of a large number of different tasks related to Feynman integral topologies. Among them are the identification and minimization of integral topologies, partial fraction decomposition of topologies in the case of linearly dependent propagators as well as mapping scalar products of loop momenta to scalar functions. Solution method: The minimization of topologies is performed by comparison of their respective Nickel indices [1], even further minimization utilizes Pak's algorithm [2]. To efficiently map scalar products of loop momenta to scalar functions FORM [3] code is generated. Additional comments including restrictions and unusual features: Minimization based on Pak's algorithm slows down for many lines and scales. A coarser minimization using the Nickel indices, however, is still possible. [1]B. Nickel, D. Meiron, G.A.J. Baker, Compilation of 2-pt and 4-pt graphs for continuous spin model, Report, University of Guelph, 1977.[2]A. Pak, J. Phys. Conf. Ser. 368 (2012) 012049, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/368/1/012049, arXiv:1111.0868.[3]B. Ruijl, T. Ueda, J. Vermaseren, FORM version 4.2, arXiv:1707.06453, 7 2017.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermo4PFM: Facilitating Phase-field simulations of alloys with thermodynamic driving forces

Phase-field modeling is a popular front-tracking approach used to model solidification. Its time-evolution equations are often coupled to alloy composition and/or thermal diffusion in high-resolution multiphysics approaches. Materials thermodynamic properties tabulated in CALPHAD databases can be used for phase-field modeling to parameterize bulk energies of alloys. In addition, they can be naturally integrated into models such as the Kim-Kim-Suzuki (KKS) model where driving forces depend on the differences between chemical potentials of co-existing phases. In that case, a small system of coupled nonlinear equations needs to be solved at every point in space where the phase-field order parameter is to be updated and evolved in time. Here we present Thermo4PFM, a solver for the KKS equations for binary and ternary alloys, with two or three phases, and parameterized with CALPHAD models. Thermo4PFM is open source, written in C++, and can take advantage of Graphics Processing Units (GPU) accelerators. Using OpenMP offload capabilities for C++ classes, an excellent performance is demonstrated on GPU using the LLVM compiler. CALPHAD data is read from simple JSON files using an open source parser from the boost library.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

JuTrack: A Julia package for auto-differentiable accelerator modeling and particle tracking

Efficient accelerator modeling and particle tracking are key for the design and configuration of modern particle accelerators. In this work, we present JuTrack, a nested accelerator modeling package developed in the Julia programming language and enhanced with compiler-level automatic differentiation (AD). With the aid of AD, JuTrack enables rapid derivative calculations in accelerator modeling, facilitating sensitivity analyses and optimization tasks. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of AD-derived derivatives through several practical applications, including sensitivity analysis of space-charge-induced emittance growth, nonlinear beam dynamics analysis for a synchrotron light source, and lattice parameter tuning of the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). Through the incorporation of automatic differentiation, this package opens up new possibilities for accelerator physicists in beam physics studies and accelerator design optimization.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Regenerator design optimization: Results from REGEN 3.3

The results from an extensive parametric study using the most recent version of the regenerator design software tool, REGEN3.3, are presented. By compiling the results from more than 10,000 applications of REGEN3.3 for three different temperatures (35 K, 60 K and 80 K), a wide range of frequencies (30–300 Hz), and a variety of regenerator length, inverse mass flux, and cold end phase angles, a group of performance maps have been generated that will enable regenerator optimization without having to learn REGEN3.3. Optimum results, defined by maximum COP values, are also provided in the form of a convenient correlation whereby the COP can be calculated directly from chosen values of cold end temperature, frequency, inverse mass flux, length, and cold end phase angle. Here one of the more interesting results revealed by this study is that the optimum value of COP is very broad. That is, changes by as much as 15% to 20% in the length, inverse mass flux, or cold end phase away from their optimized values degrade the COP by only 2%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A dataset of eco-evidence tools to inform early-stage environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

The datasets described herein provide the foundation for a decision support prototype (DSP) toolkit aimed at assisting stakeholders in determining evidence of which aspects of river ecosystems have been impacted by hydropower. The DSP toolkit and its application are presented and described in the article “Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development” [1]. Development of the DSP and the output for decision support centralize around 42 river function indicators describing the dimensionality of river ecosystems through six main categories: biota and biodiversity, water quality, hydrology, geomorphology, land cover, and river connectivity. Three main tools are represented in the DSP: A science-based questionnaire (SBQ), an environmental envelope model (EEM), and a river function linkage assessment tool (RFLAT). The SBQ is a structured survey-style questionnaire whose objective is to provide evidence of which indicators have been impacted by hydropower. Based on a global literature review, 140 questions were developed from general hypotheses regarding the impacts of dams on rivers. The EEM is a model to predict the likelihood of hydropower impacting indicators based on a several variables. The intended use of the EEM is for situations of new hydropower development where results of the SBQ are incomplete or highly uncertain. The EEM was developed through the compilation of a dataset containing attributes of dams, reservoirs, and geospatial information on environmental concerns, which was combined with data on ecological indicators documented at those sites through literature review. The model operates through 247 “envelopes” and weighting factors, representing the individual effect of each variable on each indicator, all available through spreadsheets. Finally, the RFLAT is a tool to examine causal relationships amongst indicators. Inter-indicator relationships were hypothesized based on literature review and summarized into node and edge datasets to represent the structure of a graphical network. Bayes theorem was used estimate conditional probabilities of inter-indicator relationships based on the output of the SBQ. Nodes and edges were imported into R programming environment to visualize ecological indicator networks. The datasets can be expanded upon and enriched with more detailed questions for the SBQ, building upon the EEM with to develop more sophisticated models, and identifying new relationships for the RFALT. Additionally, once the tools are applied to numerous hydropower developments, the output of the tools (e.g. evidence of impacted indicators) becomes a very useful dataset for meta-analyses of hydropower impacts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A critical review of molybdenum sequestration mechanisms under euxinic conditions: Implications for the precision of molybdenum paleoredox proxies

The observed difference in molybdenum (Mo) mobility and isotopic fractionation under oxic versus euxinic (i.e., anoxic and sulfidic) aqueous conditions provides a sound operational basis for the use of Mo geochemical signatures in ancient sedimentary records to infer palaeoceanographic redox conditions. While Mo is known to exist predominantly as molybdate (MoO 4 2– ) in oxic waters and convert into thiomolybdate species (MoO x S 4-x 2– ) under euxinic conditions, the pathways that lead to Mo sequestration are highly debated. As mechanistic understanding of Mo sequestration is crucial for accurately reconstructing the chemistry of ancient oceans and constraining the timing and intensity of oxygenation events through Earth's history using Mo paleoproxies, we have closely examined the current proposed mechanisms for Mo sequestration across a wide range of euxinic conditions. Through compilation and comparison of such information, we aim to provide an integrated view of Mo sequestration processes, to identify the current controversies as well as the roots of such controversies, and importantly, to propose avenues for future research. Here, sequestration of Mo may occur through complexation with organic matter (OM), reactions with oxyhydroxide and sulfide mineral surfaces, incorporation into iron sulfide crystal structures, formation of Mo-sulfide, and cellular assimilation. However, several major questions remains unresolved, including whether OM complexation plays a significant role in overall sedimentary Mo accumulation, whether the reduction of Mo(VI) occurs during interaction with Fe-S clusters/precipitates and/or with OM, whether microbial enzymatic reduction of Mo(VI) is important in Mo sequestration, whether synergistic effects exist between the biological and abiotic processes in Mo sequestration, and whether differences in reactivity among the various thiomolybdate intermediate species and tetrathiomolybdate influence the Mo sequestration process. At the end of the review, the reliability of Mo paleoproxies is discussed and reevaluated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Impact of induced seismic events on seal integrity, Texas Gulf Coast

Recent publications have suggested that large-scale CO 2 injection could trigger earthquakes and that even small- to moderate-sized earthquakes may threaten the seal integrity of the injection zone, and potentially damage buildings and other surface structures. In this study, we compared seal thickness to estimated fault displacement due to a single hypothetical seismic event in a selected area of the Texas Gulf Coast comprising an offshore strip of state waters along two Texas counties. To evaluate the slip generated by a single seismic event, we compiled well log information on shale/sand sequences and seismic information on fault geometric characteristics of a section of Lower Miocene age. The section is thousands of feet thick and is overlain and underlain by marine shales (Amph. B and Anahuac, respectively) that are relatively easy to correlate between wells. The Amph. B. shale is the secondary and ultimate seal for all injection intervals in the Lower Miocene. Given its thickness, no realistic seismic event or small series of seismic events will offset it significantly. However, this may not be true of smaller local primary seals. An analysis of geophysical logs of a total of 71 wells yielded a total of 2,871 sand / shale binary intervals. An analysis of the dedicated 3D seismic survey counted 723 fault traces at five roughly horizontal horizons within the Lower Miocene Fault displacement estimated using the product of the fault length times an uncertain multiplier coefficient assumed to follow a triangular distribution with a 10 -3 to 10 -5 range and a mode of 8 × 10 -5 . We then compared estimated single-event fault displacements to seal thicknesses by means of a Monte-Carlo analysis. Only 1.8% of thickness/displacement pairs display a displacement greater than 20% of the seal thickness. Only 0.26% of the pairs result in a displacement of half the seal thickness and only 0.05% of thickness/displacement pairs result in a clear seal rupture. The next step was to compare the magnitude of the event generated by such a displacement to documented magnitudes of “large” earthquakes generated by waterflooding and fluid disposal. Based on this analysis, we conclude that seismicity that may arise from CO 2 injection appears not to be a serious complication for CO 2 storage integrity, at least in the Gulf Coast area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Social cost impact assessment of pipeline infrastructure projects

A key advantage of trenchless construction methods compared with traditional open-cut methods is their ability to install or rehabilitate underground utility systems with limited disruption to the surrounding built and natural environments. The equivalent monetary values of these disruptions are commonly called social costs. Social costs are often ignored by engineers or project managers during project planning and design phases, partially because they cannot be calculated using standard estimating methods. In recent years some approaches for estimating social costs were presented. Nevertheless, the cost data needed for validation of these estimating methods is lacking. Development of such social cost databases can be accomplished by compiling relevant information reported in various case histories. This paper identifies eight most important social cost categories, presents mathematical methods for calculating them, and summarizes the social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects. The case histories are analyzed in order to identify trends for the various social cost categories. The effectiveness of the methods used to estimate these values is also discussed. These findings are valuable for pipeline infrastructure engineers making renewal technology selection decisions by providing a more accurate process for the assessment of social costs and impacts. - Highlights: • Identified the eight most important social cost factors for pipeline construction • Presented mathematical methods for calculating those social cost factors • Summarized social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects • Analyzed those projects to identify trends for the social cost factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessing direct and indirect emissions of greenhouse gases in road transportation, taking into account the role of uncertainty in the emissions inventory

Highlights: • The use-chain model implemented in this paper is effective in minimizing uncertainty. • Data integration is important to reduce uncertainty. • An innovative metric, Emission Value at Risk, was used to adjust uncertainty values. • Indirect impacts of economic activities change the estimate of GHG emissions. - Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial era, with dramatic effects on climate change. Transportation is one of the main sources of GHGs, with more than two-thirds of transport-related GHG emissions attributable to road vehicles. Any policy that aims to reduce GHG emissions needs robust measuring methods that guarantee the quality and reliability of primary data and estimates. However, these estimates are subject to uncertainty, both at the stage of compiling accounting tables and at the stage of using this information to formulate a specific policy question. This paper considers how to reduce uncertainty in estimating GHG emissions from road transportation, with specific reference to a regional emissions inventory in Italy. We propose the application of a use-chain model that can tackle uncertainty in measuring GHG emissions by enhancing the quality of the emissions data registry in the inventory. This new metric, which we call emission value at risk (VaR), draws from methodologies and concepts employed in the insurance and financial sectors. Moreover, additional assessments are performed, integrating the inventory data with those available in the regional energy balance and disaggregated sectoral economic dataset. The results show that a sound accounting method enables uncertainty in emission data to be taken into account, thus improving the design of appropriate strategies to reduce GHG emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land use and turbine technology influences on wind potential in the United States

As clean energy ambitions have expanded, critically evaluating renewable energy supply has become increasingly important to the energy research community and stakeholders. This study examines the onshore wind resource potential for the conterminous United States and its sensitivity to siting constraints and turbine technology innovation. We compile localized regulatory information and use high-resolution data to present multiple siting regimes covering relatively constrained to unconstrained potentials. Our efforts reveal high sensitivity to these variables and sizable uncertainty in the overall wind energy resource potential. Specifically, we find that siting constraints may shift the total capacity available to commercial wind energy by 2.3–15.1 TW. Furthermore, our results illustrate that technology advancement could require larger setbacks from buildings and infrastructure, reducing the total available capacity potential by 20% relative to estimates using current technology, but that this reduction is largely offset by increased generation such that the net effect on generation is 1%. The observed sensitivity to and uncertainty resulting from the variables we analyze suggest there is value in continued study and development of increasingly sophisticated approaches to characterizing wind resource potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗