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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion

Abstract One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km 2 each, or 400 km 2 in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases.

Abolt, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring Plant Acclimation and Improving Model Generalizability With Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning of Photosynthesis

Net photosynthesis (A N ) is a key component of the global carbon cycle influencing climate feedback over decadal scales. Although plant acclimation to environmental changes can modify A N , traditional vegetation models in Earth system models (ESMs) often rely on plant functional type (PFT)-specific parameterizations or simplified acclimation assumptions limiting generalizability across time, space, and PFTs. In this study, we developed a differentiable photosynthesis model to learn the environmental dependencies of V c,max25 (maximum carboxylation rate at 25°C, representing photosynthetic capacity), as this genre of hybrid physics-informed machine learning can seamlessly train neural networks and process-based equations together. Compared to PFT-specific parameterization of V c,max25 , learning the environment dependencies of key photosynthetic parameters improved model spatiotemporal generalizability. Applying environmental acclimation to V c,max25 led to substantial variations in global mean A N indicating the need to address acclimation in ESMs. The model effectively captured multivariate observations (V c,max25 , A N , and stomatal conductance (g s )) simultaneously with multivariate constraints, improving generalization across space and PFTs. It also learned sensible acclimation relationships of V c,max25 to different environmental conditions. The model explained more than 54%, 57%, and 62% of the variance of A N , g s , and V c,max25 , respectively, presenting a first global-scale spatial test benchmark of A N and g s . These results highlight the potential for differentiable modeling to enhance process-based modules in ESMs and effectively leverage information from large, multivariate data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability

Snow plays a critical role in carbon cycling, vegetation dynamics, and permafrost hydrology at high latitudes by influencing surface energy exchange. Predicting snow distribution patterns is essential for understanding the evolution of Arctic ecosystems, yet scaling process-level knowledge to landscape predictions remains challenging. Here, we analyze snow depth (2019 and 2022), terrain elevation, and vegetation height from a watershed on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, to examine how topography and shrubs shape snow redistribution across spatial scales. We find that snow depth is strongly coupled to terrain at scales below ∼60 m but becomes increasingly decoupled at larger scales. The topographic model of snow depth variation, which transforms terrain data to align with these scale-dependent snow patterns, is well correlated with local snow depth variations (linear fit R 2 > 0.5 for 85% of 100-m patches). A machine learning reconstruction of shrub canopy snow trapping reveals a simple exponential relationship between canopy structure and snow accumulation ( R 2 = 0.59), highlighting the combined influence of topography and vegetation on snow distribution. Together, these empirical relationships capture much of the observed snow variability in the watershed ( R 2 = 0.49, root mean square error (RMSE) = 30 cm), though systematic limitations persist in areas of strong scour and at coarser scales where wind-terrain interactions are more complex. These findings provide a framework for more efficient snow depth prediction and offer insights to improve snow-vegetation feedback representation in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrological Control on Soil Redox Condition and Carbon Loss of Coastal Wetland Under Sea-Level Rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Chen, Kewei [ORNL] (ORCID:000000032580514X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lipid analysis of CO 2 -rich subsurface aquifers suggests an autotrophy-based deep biosphere with lysolipids enriched in CPR bacteria

Sediment-hosted CO 2 -rich aquifers deep below the Colorado Plateau (USA) contain a remarkable diversity of uncultivated microorganisms, including Candidate Phyla Radiation (CPR) bacteria that are putative symbionts unable to synthesize membrane lipids. The origin of organic carbon in these ecosystems is unknown and the source of CPR membrane lipids remains elusive. We collected cells from deep groundwater brought to the surface by eruptions of Crystal Geyser, sequenced the community, and analyzed the whole community lipidome over time. Characteristic stable carbon isotopic compositions of microbial lipids suggest that bacterial and archaeal CO 2 fixation ongoing in the deep subsurface provides organic carbon for the complex communities that reside there. Coupled lipidomic-metagenomic analysis indicates that CPR bacteria lack complete lipid biosynthesis pathways but still possess regular lipid membranes. These lipids may therefore originate from other community members, which also adapt to high in situ pressure by increasing fatty acid unsaturation. An unusually high abundance of lysolipids attributed to CPR bacteria may represent an adaptation to membrane curvature stress induced by their small cell sizes. Our findings provide new insights into the carbon cycle in the deep subsurface and suggest the redistribution of lipids into putative symbionts within this community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changing expression patterns of TonB-dependent transporters suggest shifts in polysaccharide consumption over the course of a spring phytoplankton bloom

Algal blooms produce large quantities of organic matter that is subsequently remineralised by bacterial heterotrophs. Polysaccharide is a primary component of algal biomass. It has been hypothesised that individual bacterial heterotrophic niches during algal blooms are in part determined by the available polysaccharide substrates present. Measurement of the expression of TonB-dependent transporters, often specific for polysaccharide uptake, might serve as a proxy for assessing bacterial polysaccharide consumption over time. To investigate this, we present here high-resolution metaproteomic and metagenomic datasets from bacterioplankton of the 2016 spring phytoplankton bloom at Helgoland island in the southern North Sea, and expression profiles of TonB-dependent transporters during the bloom, which demonstrate the importance of both the Gammaproteobacteria and the Bacteroidetes as degraders of algal polysaccharide. TonB-dependent transporters were the most highly expressed protein class, split approximately evenly between the Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes , and totalling on average 16.7% of all detected proteins during the bloom. About 93% of these were predicted to take up organic matter, and for about 12% of the TonB-dependent transporters, we predicted a specific target polysaccharide class. Most significantly, we observed a change in substrate specificities of the expressed transporters over time, which was not reflected in the corresponding metagenomic data. From this, we conclude that algal cell wall-related compounds containing fucose, mannose, and xylose were mostly utilised in later bloom stages, whereas glucose-based algal and bacterial storage molecules including laminarin, glycogen, and starch were used throughout. Quantification of transporters could therefore be key for understanding marine carbon cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bacterial response to spatial gradients of algal-derived nutrients in a porous microplate

Abstract Photosynthetic microalgae are responsible for 50% of the global atmospheric CO2 fixation into organic matter and hold potential as a renewable bioenergy source. Their metabolic interactions with the surrounding microbial community (the algal microbiome) play critical roles in carbon cycling, but due to methodological limitations, it has been challenging to examine how community development is influenced by spatial proximity to their algal host. Here we introduce a copolymer-based porous microplate to co-culture algae and bacteria, where metabolites are constantly exchanged between the microorganisms while maintaining physical separation. In the microplate, we found that the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum accumulated to cell abundances ~20 fold higher than under normal batch conditions due to constant replenishment of nutrients through the porous structure. We also demonstrate that algal-associated bacteria, both single isolates and complex communities, responded to inorganic nutrients away from their host as well as organic nutrients originating from the algae in a spatially predictable manner. These experimental findings coupled with a mathematical model suggest that host proximity and algal culture growth phase impact bacterial community development in a taxon-specific manner through organic and inorganic nutrient availability. Our novel system presents a useful tool to investigate universal metabolic interactions between microbes in aquatic ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lytic archaeal viruses infect abundant primary producers in Earth’s crust

The continental subsurface houses a major portion of life’s abundance and diversity, yet little is known about viruses infecting microbes that reside there. Here, we use a combination of metagenomics and virus-targeted direct-geneFISH (virusFISH) to show that highly abundant carbon-fixing organisms of the uncultivated genus Candidatus Altiarchaeum are frequent targets of previously unrecognized viruses in the deep subsurface. Analysis of CRISPR spacer matches display resistances of Ca. Altiarchaea against eight predicted viral clades, which show genomic relatedness across continents but little similarity to previously identified viruses. Based on metagenomic information, we tag and image a putatively viral genome rich in protospacers using fluorescence microscopy. VirusFISH reveals a lytic lifestyle of the respective virus and challenges previous predictions that lysogeny prevails as the dominant viral lifestyle in the subsurface. CRISPR development over time and imaging of 18 samples from one subsurface ecosystem suggest a sophisticated interplay of viral diversification and adapting CRISPR-mediated resistances of Ca. Altiarchaeum. We conclude that infections of primary producers with lytic viruses followed by cell lysis potentially jump-start heterotrophic carbon cycling in these subsurface ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Abstract Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cascade electrocatalysis via AgCu single-atom alloy and Ag nanoparticles in CO 2 electroreduction toward multicarbon products

Electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction into value-added multicarbon products offers a means to close the anthropogenic carbon cycle using renewable electricity. However, the unsatisfactory catalytic selectivity for multicarbon products severely hinders the practical application of this technology. In this paper, we report a cascade AgCu single-atom and nanoparticle electrocatalyst, in which Ag nanoparticles produce CO and AgCu single-atom alloys promote C-C coupling kinetics. As a result, a Faradaic efficiency (FE) of 94 ± 4% toward multicarbon products is achieved with the as-prepared AgCu single-atom and nanoparticle catalyst under ~720 mA cm -2 working current density at -0.65 V in a flow cell with alkaline electrolyte. Density functional theory calculations further demonstrate that the high multicarbon product selectivity results from cooperation between AgCu single-atom alloys and Ag nanoparticles, wherein the Ag single-atom doping of Cu nanoparticles increases the adsorption energy of *CO on Cu sites due to the asymmetric bonding of the Cu atom to the adjacent Ag atom with a compressive strain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate warming and elevated CO 2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability

Peatlands are an important carbon (C) reservoir storing one-third of global soil organic carbon (SOC), but little is known about the fate of these C stocks under climate change. Here, we examine the impact of warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ) on the molecular composition of SOC to infer SOC sources (microbe-, plant- and fire-derived) and stability in a boreal peatland. We show that while warming alone decreased plant- and microbe-derived SOC due to enhanced decomposition, warming combined with eCO 2 increased plant-derived SOC compounds. We further observed increasing root-derived inputs (suberin) and declining leaf/needle-derived inputs (cutin) into SOC under warming and eCO 2 . The decline in SOC compounds with warming and gains from new root-derived C under eCO 2 , suggest that warming and eCO 2 may shift peatland C budget towards pools with faster turnover. Together, our results indicate that climate change may increase inputs and enhance decomposition of SOC potentially destabilising C storage in peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal responses of dissolved organic matter under global change

The diversity of intrinsic traits of different organic matter molecules makes it challenging to predict how they, and therefore the global carbon cycle, will respond to climate change. Here we develop an indicator of compositional-level environmental response for dissolved organic matter to quantify the aggregated response of individual molecules that positively and negatively associate with warming. We apply the indicator to assess the thermal response of sediment dissolved organic matter in 480 aquatic microcosms along nutrient gradients on three Eurasian mountainsides. Organic molecules consistently respond to temperature change within and across contrasting climate zones. At a compositional level, dissolved organic matter in warmer sites has a stronger thermal response and shows functional reorganization towards molecules with lower thermodynamic favorability for microbial decomposition. The thermal response is more sensitive to warming at higher nutrients, with increased sensitivity of up to 22% for each additional 1 mg L -1 of nitrogen loading. The utility of the thermal response indicator is further confirmed by laboratory experiments and reveals its positive links to greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mapping the global distribution of C 4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory

Plants with the C 4 photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C 3 -type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C 4 and C 3 vegetation distributions. However, current C 4 vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C 4 vegetation. We find that global C 4 vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C 4 natural grass cover due to elevated CO 2 favoring C 3 -type photosynthesis, and an increase in C 4 crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C 4 vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18–23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C 4 plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Northern peatland microbial communities exhibit resistance to warming and acquire electron acceptors from soil organic matter

The response of microbial communities that regulate belowground carbon turnover to climate change drivers in peatlands is poorly understood. Here, we leverage a whole ecosystem warming experiment to elucidate the key processes of terminal carbon decomposition and community responses to temperature rise. Our dataset of 697 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) represents the microbial community from the surface (10 cm) to 2 m deep into the peat column, with only 3.7% of genomes overlapping with other well-studied peatlands. Community composition has yet to show a significant response to warming after 3 years, suggesting that metabolically diverse soil microbial communities are resistant to climate change. Surprisingly, abundant and active methanogens in the genus Candidatus Methanoflorens, Methanobacterium , and Methanoregula show the potential for both acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Nonetheless, the predominant pathways for anaerobic carbon decomposition include sulfate/sulfite reduction, denitrification, and acetogenesis, rather than methanogenesis based on gene abundances. Multi-omics data suggest that organic matter cleavage provides terminal electron acceptors, which together with methanogen metabolic flexibility, may explain peat microbiome composition resistance to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Organic carbon oxidation state shapes fermentative methanogenic microbiomes and controls greenhouse gas fluxes

Organic compounds with a negative nominal oxidation state of carbon (NOSC) are thermodynamically recalcitrant in anaerobic ecosystems, but few studies have measured the influence of NOSC on carbon degradation rates, gaseous product yields, or microbiome composition. We amended anaerobic rice paddy sediment microcosms with water-soluble monomeric organic carbon compounds varying in NOSC. Consistent with thermodynamic and stoichiometric predictions, negative NOSC compounds are catabolized more slowly but produce more methane per mole of carbon. Negative NOSC microbiomes have higher alpha diversity, more syntrophs and methanogens, and fewer fermentative bacteria. Strikingly, fermentative bacterial taxa display genomically encoded NOSC catabolic preferences both in the lab and field. Negative NOSC-preferring fermenters have longer predicted doubling times, consistent with the thermodynamic recalcitrance of their preferred substrates. We propose that microbial NOSC catabolic preferences may reflect the thermodynamic niche of microorganisms and we anticipate that extending research on microbial catabolic preferences to a greater variety of organic carbon substrates and diverse microbiomes will improve our understanding of microbial carbon cycling and trait evolution.

Hu, Ruiwen↗
DOE OSTI2019

Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of food production and vegetation growth globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reduction associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions.

Xu, Chonggang↗